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Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Trey Lance

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has said throughout the offseason after selecting rookie QB Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 rookie draft, that Lance will have a “tough time” becoming the starter this year. But is that just coach-speak for “he’ll be starting after a few regular season games”?

Well, let’s take a look at the details here: Garoppolo was the QB just two seasons ago when the surging 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl to lose to the Chiefs 31-20. Lance, on the other hand, has been flashing some highlights in practice and impressed the world with an 80-yard touchdown play to wide receiver Trent Sherfield in this past weekend’s preseason game.

That said, news from the 49ers beat reporters has remained consistent: Trey Lance continues to show his upside in loose practices, but Garoppolo is far better at situational football. It’s important to remember that when you’re constantly blowing out teams (like Lance generally enjoyed in college at North Dakota State), you don’t get a ton of real world practice in high-pressure, two-minute drill, game-winning, come-from-behind types of situations.

Garoppolo will make over $24 Million over the 2021 NFL season and provide the 49ers with a stable, veteran structure to make it to the postseason and compete for another Super Bowl with a win-now stable of talent.

The 49ers traded up to get Lance in this year’s draft - trading 3 first round picks and leaving them without a first round selection until 2024. But Garoppolo is playing for his life and a future home in another NFL city. My money is on Jimmy G retaining the job this year, barring injury. Trey Lance’s era in San Francisco most likely begins in 2022.

Cam Newton vs. Mac Jones

When asked about whether he was going to start Week 1 for the Patriots at a press conference this past Monday, Cam Newton said: “Y’all sitting up here asking silly questions to me and I’m looking at y’all with the same thing. I don’t know what y’all want me to say…You know, you know that. You know he hasn’t said that, so for you to just ask the question, it is what it is.”

It’s clear that the QB1 spot for the Pats is still up in the air with the team drafting Mac Jones as the 15th overall pick this year and Cam Newton’s less-than-stellar performance at the position last season. Stats after the first preseason game? Newton went 4-7 for 49 yards while Jones went 13-19 for 87 yards. Admittedly Jones had more playing time.

Yesterday’s scrimmage session with the Eagles resulted in good numbers from both of them, with Newton going 13-15 and Jones going 13-14 on the day. Notably, the Eagles kept calling Cam the ‘Checkdown King’. We have a lot of preseason football to go and plenty of Patriots fans are calling for Jones to get the nod in Week 1, but if we look at Belichick historically it’s much more likely that Cam will be the one lining up to start on September 12th against the Dolphins.

Belichick and the Pats in general tend to favor the more experienced players unless the competition is head & shoulders above them. Interestingly, there are reports out of camp of Newton/Jones being slotted in for quick plays inside of each others’ series so there may be some extra trickery at foot. This one is still anyone’s game based on preseason performance.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 0-6 Record in Their First Start

Trey Lance is the sixth rookie QB to make his first start this season, and in those games, all 6 rookie QBs have posted losses. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, and Trey Lance are the six rookies. Overall, those rookies only have 5 total wins, with Fields leading the way with two, Wilson with just one win last week in OT over the Titans. Mac Jones also has two victories this year, but interestingly enough, his opponent in both of those wins were also rookie QBs. Of this week’s performers, even though Davis Mills did not win, he was by far the best fantasy rookie QB of the week. Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 TDs for 24.68 fantasy points, good for QB5 on the week (and Mills is only owned in 21% of Fleaflicker leagues). His 141.7 QB rating was the second-best on the week, behind only the GOAT himself, Tom Brady – who posted his 9^th career game with 5+ passing TDs (and second of the season).

6 QBs in Tier 1

This season, it’s quite crowded at the top of the QB list. There are 6 QBs that I would consider all in the same playing tier, as they are all within less than a 10%-point difference of each other. On top is Patrick Mahomes, with a surprising 2-3 record, has a league-leading 16 passing TDs, and still leads the league in fantasy points with 136.9 (just edging out Tom Brady’s 136.28). The only other QB with a losing record, Jalen Hurts, is just 11.7 points behind the leader. Of the top 6, Hurts actually has the highest floor – his worst game clocks in at 21.80 points against the 49ers in Week 2. Take that, Kyler Murray, who could only post 13.66 this week against them. Perhaps in all of this I have not given enough credit to the best performer of the week, and the only QB to break the 40-point barrier this season, Justin Herbert. Herbert led his team to an astonishing 47 points, even if they weren’t trying to score a TD on that very last drive.

153 Yards from Scrimmage per Game

While the top of the QB list may be crowded, there is only one name atop the RB list, and that’s King Henry himself. Derrick Henry quietly had 130 rushing yards this week, actually lowering his season average for yards from scrimmage – probably because this is the first game this season that he was not targeted in the passing game. In every other game this year, he has at least two receptions. I suppose that his participation in the passing game wasn’t necessary since the Titans were easily handling the Jaguars, handing them their 20^th consecutive loss. Those of you with Henry on your team will just have to settle for the 3 TDs and 31 total points that he gave you. Henry is still on pace to break the single-season yardage record, though at this pace he will definitely need that 17^th game to do so. Henry definitely deserves his own tier when looking at the rankings – he’s nearly 20 fantasy points ahead of the second-best RB, Austin Ekeler, who in turn is 16+ points ahead of the 3^rd highest scoring RB this year, some slouch named Zeke that’s apparently barely worth mentioning. Of course, I kid, but Henry’s dominance is amazing. The best WRs have just a fraction over 100 fantasy points through 5 games.

3 Franchise Records

Alvin Kamara picked a good week to finally put up a performance worthy of his first-round draft status. While he’s been OK this year, this week was his first game over 20 fantasy points, his most receiving yards in a game, his most yards from scrimmage in a game, and the most TDs he’s scored in a game all season. Along the way this week, he set three franchise records that are so very Kamara-esque. He had his 9^th game with a rushing and receiving TD, his 12^th game to go over 50 yards rushing and receiving, and his 19^th multiple TD game. Kamara now sits as the RB9 on the season, not a terrible spot to be in, but when you look at the draft capital you would have spent on the RB10 guy, James Robinson, it’s hard not to think that perhaps if you drafted Alvin Kamara, you definitely overpaid (so far). Hopefully, the Saints can keep him rolling when they return from their bye in Week 7.

10 Receptions for 189 Yards

Pardon me while I take a victory lap with Kadarius Toney’s performance on Sunday. Last week I called him as a sleeper who could turn in a top-10 performance, and he did just that. Toney led the Giants in targets for the second week in a row, seeing 13 targets where the second-highest total was only 5. Unfortunately for Toney and the Giants, the injury bug has hit them in a very serious way. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones both exited the game and were carted off before halftime. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both missed their second consecutive game. Their offensive line is in shambles. 7 of their 11 opening day starters are now out with injury, leaving a team that was on the upswing for a moment reeling. Toney is now probably their best offensive weapon, and despite only having Mike Glennon throwing to him for now, he’s probably in line for another high-volume game next week against the Rams, though I hesitate to start him against that passing defense. Looking at their numbers on the season, however, the Rams are giving up the 15^th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and are susceptible to giving up good games to players with lots of targets.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the part of the season a lot of fantasy managers dread: the bye weeks. The Saints, 49ers, Falcons and Jets all have the week off, so teams may be reaching a little deeper into the player pool for usable options, and there’s a chance that a rookie could help you fill in for a trusted starter like Deebo Samuel or Cordarrelle Patterson. Week 5 was a wild one for the rookie crop. Davis Mills stunned us all by finishing as the QB6 for the week and posting the best fantasy game by a rookie QB against New England of Bill Belichick’s entire run with the Pats. Trevor Lawrence also finished the week as a QB1, while Trey Lance posted a reasonable debut in which he rushed for 89 yards. The rest of the rookie QBs each posted clunkers, none more disappointing than Zach Wilson against the Falcons in London.

Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase were the stories of the week among the skill position rookies. Toney and Pitts each posted breakout games that landed them at the WR7 and TE3 spots for the week respectively, while Chase kept doing what he’s been doing all season. Ja’Marr has been doing things that only he and Randy Moss have done to start their careers at such a young age. Can these guys keep it up? What other rookies can step up in week 6? You’ve come to the right place to find out.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 6…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Harris finally had the kind of breakout rushing game that we’ve been waiting for in week 5, torching what had been a good Denver run defense for 122 yards and a score. The usage continues to be elite (89% of the team RB touches to date), and he gets a tasty matchup in week 6. The Seahawks have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game so far this season, and Harris has finished as a top-10 back in 4 straight weeks. There’s no need to overthink this one. Harris deserves consideration for the captain spot in showdown lineups for this game.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Speaking of not overthinking things, Chase has topped a dozen fantasy points every single week and posted 3 top-15 performances in his first 5 games, and this week he gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Chase’s specialty thus far has been pulling in the deep throws, and it’s an area where Detroit has struggled defensively. He has a league leading four receptions of 40+ yards and his average reception comes 14.2 yards downfield, the 4^th highest mark in the league among qualified receivers. The average air yards per completion against the Lions is 9.15 yards. Every other defense in the league has an average below 8. My only concerns for Chase this week are that the Bengals might not have to throw the ball a lot, and that Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd may get some squeaky wheel treatment after both failed to reach 40 yards last week, but those are minor concerns. This week’s matchup really is perfect for Chase. He’s a top-15 option in Detroit.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tampa Bay’s defense this year has been the definition of the phrase ‘pass funnel.’ Opposing offenses have abandoned trying to run against the Bucs stout front early in games, dropping back to pass on nearly 71% of their plays (for context, the Bucs have the most pass-heavy offense in the league and drop back to throw on 69.7% of their plays). All of that passing by their opponents has led to some big fantasy days for wide receivers against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game this season and has coughed up at least 275 passing yards to every team they’ve faced so far. For the season, Smith has commanded 23% of the Eagles’ passing targets and 41% of the air yards. One major area the Bucs have struggled is in allowing yards after the catch, and that isn’t an area where DeVonta has shined, but this game still has blow-up potential for the rookie. He should be treated as a WR2 this week and may be worth paying up for in showdown slates for Thursday night.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Jones posted another efficient performance in week 5 that doesn’t light up fantasy box scores. He did throw one interception but completed over 76% of his passes and posted his highest yards per attempt mark of the season at 7.7. He’s now completed over 73% of his passes in 4 of his 5 games and thrown for 270+ yards in 3 of them. This week he faces a Dallas defense that has spent a lot of time playing with the lead and has coughed up a lot of passing yards as a result. The Giants were the first team all season to not throw for 300 yards against them…finishing with 294. They’ve given up crooked yardage totals each and every week, but also have 2 interceptions each and every week. It’s created an odd situation where they rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. Jones, like most QBs the Cowboys have faced, will likely have to throw a lot to keep pace. If he can avoid the turnovers that have plagued other QBs to face Dallas, he should finish as a strong QB2 this week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): With news breaking that Damien Williams was added to the Covid reserve list on Thursday, Herbert suddenly finds himself positioned for a strong opportunity against Green Bay this week. Tarik Cohen isn’t walking through that door any time soon for Chicago, so Herbert likely will play a workhorse role with Ryan Nall mixing in on occasion. Green Bay is a burnable run defense, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been able to mask that issue with positive game scripts that keep their opponents throwing, but with Bill Lazor calling plays the Bears have had at least 16 RB rush attempts in 8 of 9 games, and 25+ attempts in 6 of 9 since the start of last season. I don’t expect them to put this game on Justin Fields’ shoulders. Herbert’s not much of a pass catcher, but he’s a virtual lock for 15+ carries in a solid matchup. He’s a low-end RB2 this week.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LV): Melvin Gordon had a new ailment pop up on the injury report this week, now dealing with a hip injury in addition to a leg contusion he was dealing with last week, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to miss this game. That likely means he and Williams will continue to split the backfield work evenly, making both uninspiring flex options that you hope get into the end zone. The Raiders do allow the 9^th-most RB points per game, and Williams has been the more impressive Denver back over the past couple weeks, so Williams is at least in play. He could be a very strong option if Denver is able to play from ahead, but it’s worth noting that since 2010 interim head coaches who take over in-season are 13-9 in their first game at the helm. That may not sound like a great winning percentage, but keep in mind that most of those teams were far below .500 for the season. There is a noticeable boost in that first game. Treat Javonte as an RB3 who has a reasonable floor in any case, and RB2 upside this week if the game script is in Denver’s favor.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The expected return of Tua Tagovailoa should be a positive development for Waddle this week. Waddle’s season-high receiving mark of 61 yards was set in his only full game with Tua at QB, and that was the only game where he found the end zone as well. With Brissett under center, Waddle’s aDOT was around 4 yards, limiting the damage he could do without big volume. That mark was at 9.8 yards in week 1. It’s a small sample, but Tua showed a willingness to throw down the field that week that we just haven’t seen from Brissett. The matchup is a good one this week. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and DeVante Parker may be sidelined again. That could add up to a lot of volume for Waddle. If Tua doesn’t return this week, treat the rookie as a dicey PPR flex option. If he does, I really like Waddle’s chances to top 60 yards for the second time this year and finish as a WR3 or better.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Toney broke out in a big way in week 5, piling up 10 catches and 189 yards on 13 targets with most of New York’s other pass catchers sidelined. It was the kind of performance where you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Toney, long mocked as a terrible 1^st-round pick by GM Dave Gettleman & the Giants, showed that he’s too good to be sent back to the bench. It remains to be seen how the Giants will divvy up the WR opportunities as the rest of the WRs return, but Toney is going to be involved. This week, the Giants may get Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton back, so I wouldn’t look for Toney to be targeted 13 times again. He also may have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey a bunch in this one, and his starting QB is likely to be Mike Glennon. With the bye weeks hitting, Toney could be considered for a WR3 spot in lineups despite those things working against him, but you should come away happy if he gives you a repeat of what he did two weeks ago (6 catches for 78 yards).

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 6: @Cle.): The Cardinals flashed some creativity with Moore last week, getting him 3 rushing attempts to go along with his 6 targets, and Rondale posted his best game since week 2. He still hasn’t played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in any game though, and that additional usage last week could’ve been to help lighten the load on banged up running back Chase Edmonds. Moore may see his snaps increase if the Cards opt to play more 4-WR sets with TE Maxx Williams now out for the year, and speed has burned the Browns secondary this season. Two of the top-3 WR performances against them this year were by Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks, and Moore fits a similar size/speed mold. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week in Cleveland.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Mia.): Lawrence has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks after piling up turnovers in his first 3 starts, but he’s not seeing enough volume to be trusted as an auto-start in 2-QB leagues. He threw the ball 51 times in the opener as Jacksonville chased points against the Texans, but he’s attempted fewer than 35 passes in every game since and averaged just 204 passing yards per game in those contests. He’s padded his fantasy production with rushing scores in each of the past two weeks, but those are hard to rely on. Miami isn’t the type of team that I’d expect to blow the Jaguars out, so I’d expect Lawrence’s volume to be modest again. The Dolphins haven’t been a good defense against QBs, allowing the 6^th-most points per game to the position, but only Tom Brady (QB3) and Derek Carr (QB11) have finished higher than the QB20 against Miami in any individual game. I’d treat Lawrence as a low-end QB2 for fantasy this week.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Through his first 3 NFL starts, Justin Fields has averaged just 19 passing attempts and 144 passing yards per game. He’s thrown just 1 total touchdown and run for 25 total yards. Those aren’t the kind of numbers you can trust in a fantasy lineup, even though there are things working in his favor this week. The Bears are a 4.5-point underdog, so it’s likely that Fields will have to throw more than we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks, and the Packers are still without top cover man Jaire Alexander. They allowed 20 fantasy points to Joe Burrow last week in their first game without Alexander. It wouldn’t shock me if Fields posts his best fantasy day of the year, but if he’s not going to use his legs and give you a rushing floor, you can’t count on getting enough points from his arm to warrant starting him.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Christian McCaffrey’s absence seems almost certain to end this week, which means Hubbard goes back to handcuff status. There’s a chance the Panthers don’t give CMC a full workload the first game back out there, but I wouldn’t want to start Chuba in a part time role, even against a suspect Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. They’re a good matchup for running backs, but not a great one. If CMC is held out another week, treat Hubbard like a borderline RB2/RB3.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): I only mention Felton at all because Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb aren’t practicing as of Thursday. If by some chance both players sit, I’d expect D’Ernest Johnson to handle the bulk of the backfield work, with Felton mixing in on passing downs. The Cardinals have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and fewer than 5 receptions per game to the position. I’d have a hard time convincing myself to get Felton into lineups anywhere unless I were desperate, even if both starters are out.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Stevenson went from being a healthy scratch 3 weeks in a row to handling 11 carries in week 5. He didn’t do much with them, logging just 23 yards. One positive to take away for Stevenson is that he, unlike his teammate Damien Harris, did not fumble the ball away at the 1-yard line last week. It was the second fumble of the year at a critical moment by Harris, and there is no way Belichick allows him to continue to get those kinds of carries if that continues to happen. Harris was dealing with chest & rib injuries in that game that may have contributed to Rhamondre’s playing time, but he seems unlikely to miss week 6 despite not practicing Wednesday. It was reported by Ian Rapoport after the game that Harris “checked out ok.” If Harris is active, Stevenson is a bad option against a Dallas defense that has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Devontae Booker is the only running back all year to get into the end zone against them. If Harris is inactive, I would view Rhamondre as more of a desperation flex play in non-PPR leagues. The Patriots should be chasing points against an explosive Dallas offense, so this shapes up to be a Brandon Bolden week.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): After logging 11 carries in week 4, Rountree didn’t play a single offensive snap in week 5. There were no reports of any injury or disciplinary reasons he was sidelined, so it appears that he’s simply lost the backup job to Joshua Kelley for the time being. There’s no reason to hold him as a handcuff in deeper leagues right now.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Evans did see a season-high number of snaps in week 5 with Joe Mixon on a snap count due to injury, but that amounted to just 7 snaps for the rookie. You can’t start him in any weeks where Mixon is active, no matter how deep the league.

RB Gary Brightwell, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): I mention Brightwell because Saquon Barkley is expected to be sidelined for at least 1 week, possibly longer. That doesn’t mean Brightwell is worth stashing. He’s arguably still 3^rd on the backfield depth chart behind Devontae Booker and Elijhaa Penny. Leave him on the waiver wire.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): I’ve mentioned Bateman as a stash each of the last two weeks, so hopefully you’ve already gone ahead and stashed him. If he’s still available in your league, he’s still worth picking up, but this is not a great week to expect a strong debut. The Chargers have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA. Bateman still costs the minimum on DraftKings, so if you want to live dangerously in a limited slate DFS tournament, feel free to roll the dice. It’s not something I would do though. I expect he’ll be eased back and faces a tough defense in his first game back.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Even if he’s active this week, Nico’s unlikely to be useful for fantasy purposes. I’d expect Houston to ease him back in after he missed the last 3 weeks with injury, and he only played 55% of the offensive snaps and was targeted just 3 times in the 1 full game he did play. Chris Moore played well enough last week that he deserves to continue seeing snaps, and those snaps aren’t coming from Brandin Cooks. The Colts are a plus matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Collins shouldn’t be put into lineups against them this week.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Marshall has reached 30 receiving yards just once all season despite playing more than half the offensive snaps each week. Minnesota is ranked an impressive 6^th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t the week to expect Marshall to get on track.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): Palmer saw a season-high 3 targets in week 5, but he’s yet to play more than 25% of the offensive snaps in a game. He’s not on the fantasy radar right now.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Freiermuth and Eric Ebron continue to split the tight work in the Steelers’ offense, minimizing the chance for either player to be useful for fantasy right now. Big Ben is targeting the position on less than 15% of his attempts, and the Freiermuth/Ebron duo has combined for just 4 red zone targets in 5 games. The Seahawks are hardly a formidable defensive matchup, but Freiermuth isn’t seeing consistent enough usage to be trusted as a TE streamer right now. He’s been targeted 3 times in the last 2 weeks.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Tremble has found the end zone in 2 of the last 3 weeks, but he’s yet to play 40% of the offensive snaps in any game this season and has seen more than 1 target in a game just once. The Vikings have allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game and allowed zero touchdowns to the position. Steer clear of Tremble.

Rookies on bye in week 6: QB Trey Lance, SF, QB Zach Wilson, NYJ, RB Elijah Mitchell, SF, RB Trey Sermon, SF, RB Michael Carter, NYJ, WR Elijah Moore, NYJ, TE Kyle Pitts, ATL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): You’re probably playing with fire if you play Mills in fantasy lineups the week after he put up what may end up being his best performance of the season, but he’s in a sneaky spot to have another strong game in week 6. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed multiple TD passes to every quarterback they’ve faced so far. No team has allowed a higher passer rating than the Colts, and they may be without standout corner Xavier Rhodes in this game as he’s in the concussion protocol. The Texans may have Nico Collins back as well, giving Mills another weapon to work with. It’ll take some cojones to start Mills; he’s a risky play, but one that could pay off. I wouldn’t start him in 1-QB leagues, but he’s an upside QB2 option this week. I’d be ringing the bell for him a lot harder if there were more prominent QBs on bye this week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): It’s been hard to rely on anything when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield usage so far this season, but this is a nice spot for Gainwell. The Bucs have stifled opposing rushers, allowing fewer than 40 yards on the ground per game, but have allowed the most RB receptions per game and 4^th most RB receiving yards in the league. Gainwell has shared the receiving work with Miles Sanders, but if Philly falls in a hole expect to see a lot of Gainwell. He’s played 93% of the 2-minute offense snaps and has been targeted on more than a quarter of his routes run. If he’s on the field as much as I expect, 5+ receptions seem likely.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): St. Brown has emerged over the last two weeks as the most-targeted option in the Lions’ WR room, and the injury to Quintez Cephus last week should strengthen his hold on that role going forward. This week he faces off with the Bengals, who allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. He spends the vast majority of his time in the slot, where he’ll face off with Bengals’ slot corner Mike Hilton. Hilton has allowed a 76% completion percentage and 103.5 passer rating on throws into his coverage. No wide receiver is truly trustworthy in this offense, but St. Brown is in play in PPR leagues as a WR3/Flex option in this one.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. KC): If there was ever a time for Brown to get on track, this is it. His early season usage before getting hurt in week 4 left a lot to be desired, but this offense is missing Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Cam Sims this week, and Brown seems to be on track to return to the lineup. Brown’s targets have been of the downfield variety (14.2-yard aDOT for the season), but those downfield throws haven’t connected. This week he faces off with a Kansas City defense that has allowed a league-high eight 40-yard completions and is coming off a week where they coughed up several deep balls to the Bills. Washington is a touchdown underdog, so passing volume should be plentiful. Brown’s deep ball skills in this matchup make him a quality dart throw in DFS tournaments at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s probably not trustworthy enough to use in season-long leagues unless you’re desperate.

TE Kylen Granson, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Granson isn’t someone you should be running out to add in season-long leagues. He played just 8 snaps on Monday Night Football against the Ravens in week 6 after seeing 30 snaps the week before. The notable thing here is that he out-targeted Jack Doyle in both games despite playing many fewer snaps this past week. The Colts looked to get the ball into Granson’s hands when he was on the field, and Frank Reich isn’t afraid to use a lot of 2-tight end sets. Houston allows more tight end points per game than any other team in the league and has allowed scores to backups Tommy Tremble & Chris Manhertz, and 40+ receiving yards to James O’Shaughnessy & Harrison Bryant. Granson costs just $800 for the showdown slate on DraftKings, and I have a hunch he surprises in this one.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

36.24 Fantasy Points

Patrick Mahomes put up his highest fantasy total in over a year (Week 8 of last season). It looked like the Chiefs offense got back on track, putting up 41 points and really taking it to the Raiders, the team that he really loves to play against. Going into this game, he already had more passing yards and passing TDs against the Raiders than any other team in the league (and it's only the first time they play this this year). This week, Mahomes was the top fantasy player in the league, putting up 406 yards and throwing 5 TDs, good for 36.24 points. This was his 3rd game with 400+ yards and 5+ touchdowns in his career, now tied for the all time lead for games with those stats with Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, and Joe Montana. That’s some impressive company.

8 Players with at Least 20 Carries

As the season moves on, the balance of run to pass always seems to shift to the run. Combine that with injuries and less depth, leading to fewer players to split carries, resulting in the most players getting 20+ carries all season. We had 8 players with at least 20 carries this week, and 11 of them with at least 15 carries. Having an RB who receives such a large cut of the carries on a single team is extremely valuable in fantasy football. Three players got 26+ carries: D’Andre Swift, Elijah Mitchell, and Najee Harris. Unfortunately, none of them found the end zone, keeping all of them from really having a big fantasy day.

9 D/ST With 10+ Points

It was a week for defenses to shine through. Offenses struggled - only two QBs had 3+ TDs, and only 2 QBs had 300+ passing yards. This week would have been even more underwhelming if not for Patrick Mahomes, but I digress. The defenses that scored at least double digit points are owned in 61% of Fleaflicker leagues - an ownership rate that actually isn’t that bad when you consider the top 6 only average out to 39% ownership. None of the teams in this top 9 gave up more than 17 points, so they earned their points the hard way. This, like most weeks, shows that D/ST is a position to go ahead and stream on a weekly basis unless you have one of the very top teams, and still their matchup is going to dictate if you want to start them or not.

33 Carries 

To elaborate on the rushing attempts mentioned earlier, it’s worth mentioning that D’Andre Swift had 33 carries for the Lions in Pittsburgh on Sunday in what we can all agree was the least inspiring end to a football game in quite a while. Swift’s 33 carries is the second highest total for any player in the NFL this year. In fact, he’s the only one not named Derrick Henry (33, 35) who has gone over 30 carries in a single game this season. Swift also more than doubled up his previous career high water mark, which he also coincidentally received in week 10 last year. Sunday also saw Swift run for 130 rush yards, another career high mark. Swift is on pace for almost 800 rushing yards this year, which would surprisingly be the most on the Lions since Joique Bell in 2014. The Lions’ last 1000 yard rusher came in the form of Reggie Bush (1006) in 2013, who had done it for the first time in 9 years. It’s really been downhill since Barry Sanders put up 10 straight 1000 yard seasons, 7 of those being over 1400 yards.

158.3 QB Rating

Two backup QBs took the field on Sunday and posted perfect QB ratings, but they were in very different situations. First off was Brian Hoyer, the man who has started at QB for 7 different teams. Hoyer came in during garbage time against the Browns and went a cool 3/3 for 85 yards and a TD while leading the Patriots on a quick 95 yard drive late in the 4th quarter to help pad everyone’s stats. Joe Flacco also saw action for the Jets, and apparently it was so refreshing to see him in there over Mike White that he might earn the start this week. Flacco also went 3/3, this time for just 47 yards and also had a TD. The best actual starting QB rating this week? Mac Jones and his 142.1 on the way to the Patriots’ 4th win in a row. The Pats are now 6-4, in the 6-seed for the playoffs and Jones is looking like the best rookie QB this year, though his fantasy numbers leave a lot to be desired - he has just one game over 20 points all season.