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Bit of a rough week going 1-2 on the drinkfive best bets last week. Let’s look to bounce back in week 3 with a little bit more knowledge and some great trends to take advantage of. Underdogs regressed a little bit in week 2, however on the season dogs are an impressive 21-11 ATS. It’s still early in the season but there is a trend worth noting that is gaining some legs in the sports betting community; home field advantage does not seem to be as much of an advantage. Home teams are 16-16 straight up and 13-19 ATS through the first two weeks. What is eye opening, and worth tracking, is that home favorites are only 5-13 heading into week 3. 11 of the 16 games in week 3 have home favorites. High performing dogs plus underperforming home favorites; it’s a contrarian’s wet dream!

Miami +4.5 at Las Vegas:

The line for this game has been all over the place this week as both teams had questions regarding their quarterbacks. As of writing this the line is up to 4.5 and I am jumping on what I think is a severe over reaction. Miami got shut out last week and the Raiders are 2-0 so immediately there is contrarian value. Even though this line has bounced around due to injury concerns it opened at 5.5 and, even with clarity on the starting QB situation for both teams, it's down to 4.5. Despite having a backup QB start and only 26% of the tickets the line has never come close to going back to the original open of 5.5. I also see this as an overreaction play. Miami was shutout last week while there is suddenly, and embarrassingly, MVP talk surrounding Derek Carr after the Raiders 2-0 start. If that doesn’t scream over reaction I don’t know what does. The icing on top is Gruden’s 31% ATS record after multiple straight up wins.

Green Bay +3.5 at San Francisco:

There is some recent history between the Packers and the 49ers out in San Francisco. This will be the fourth meeting in 3 years at Levi’s Stadium. In 2019 the 49ers took care of business, while last year the Packers got their revenge. This is a rare popular dog with 63% of the bets coming in on the Packers and the line movement reflects that after dropping from 4 to its current line of 3. Tracking the line, I have seen what appears to be sharp buyback at 3, which is why I am recommending this pick at 3.5. As of writing this the line is juiced -120 to the favorite so I think there is a good chance 3.5 shows back up. There are a couple of trends that help tip the scales for me in this one too. Shanahan is only 22% (2-7 ATS) in his first game at home after coming off a multi-game road trip and he is only 31% ATS as a favorite in the last 27 games. Ultimately it would not surprise me to see Green Bay win this one outright, so of course I am going to take the points. San Francisco is dealing with tons of injuries and has not had a particularly confident win yet this season. Green Bay may have let the Lions stick around a bit longer than anticipated, but in the end, Aaron Rodgers did what future Hall of Famers do and found a way to confidently win the game with what was given to him. 

Tampa Bay -1.5 at Los Angeles Rams:

Tampa Bay is the public play and I am jumping on the bandwagon. There is a pro system that I like to follow on this one too; that is the dog to favorite system. Tampa Bay opened up as a +1.5 point road dog, however this line has been flipped and now Tampa is the -1.5 favorite. The dog to favorite system can be tricky, but ultimately it boils down to line movement and the public rarely moves lines, sharps move lines. The line currently sits at 1.5 and honestly, I am going to wait until the weekend to see if there is some buy back on the Rams now that it has moved so much. Aside from the line movement the Buccaneers are playing great football and are enjoying a 10 game winning streak dating back to last season. The Rams have looked good being led by Matt Stafford this year, but ultimately, they don’t have a signature win yet. Wins against Chicago and Indianapolis aren’t enough for me to fade the GOAT and reigning Super Bowl Champs. 

There is a profitable 0-2 ATS trend worth considering this week with 5 teams starting the season 0-2 ATS. Over the last 5 seasons teams that start 0-2 ATS are 26-12 ATS in week 3. Washington, New York Jets, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Atlanta all fit the trend this week. I could make an argument for Atlanta +3 at the New York Giants and Washington is clearly the sharp play at Buffalo after opening +9 and being bet down to +7/+7.5. Kansas City joining that list is honestly what makes the Chiefs Chargers game tough for me. KC has been bad ATS for longer than 2 games and ultimately, I do think the Chargers have value at 6.5, so do the books apparently who are not moving the line to the key number of 7 despite 71% of the bets and 79% of the money on the Chiefs. 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 83-yard Rushing Attempt

Jonathan Taylor set a franchise record with an 83-yard rush that amazingly did not score a touchdown. Taylor is averaging 25.9 points per game over the last 3 weeks, he has 441 yards from scrimmage and 5 touchdowns over that time. He’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry during those games and had an explosive 116 yards of receiving in Week 5. Taylor now sits as the RB4 on the season – this week he finished as the RB1 and he’s been in the top 10 for the past 3 weeks. Among the top 5 fantasy RBs, only Austin Ekeler has fewer touches (100) than Taylor (102). Taylor had at least 3x as many yards as anyone else on his team, save for TY Hilton, who he almost doubled up, as TY had 80 yards against an opponent who he routinely torches, despite having just returned from injury.

115 Passing Yards

Jalen Hurts ended the day on Sunday as the QB4 on the week, despite completing just 12 passes for 115 yards and 1 INT. His real fantasy value comes from his legs – he had 44 yards on the ground and found the end zone twice, netting him a cool 26 fantasy points. His passing yards were less than half of all of the top 12 QBs this week, except for Aaron Rodgers, who didn’t need to throw the ball much to continue owning the Bears. But let’s go back to Hurts – this week was his 6^th consecutive game this season (i.e.. all of them) where he has scored at least 21 fantasy points. He is the QB4 on the year, and is just about 10 points behind the leader, Patrick Mahomes. Hurts may continue to turn in lackluster passing performances over and over again, but his fantasy value is undeniable and he’s clearly a must-start every week. He has matchups coming up against Detroit and both New York teams before his bye in Week 14, so there are some good matchups coming up for the player with the highest floor in all of fantasy football.

9 Kickers in Double Digits

This week, 9 kickers scored double-digit fantasy points, and only 3 of them were owned in the drinkfive.com fantasy league. Leading the way was Matthew Wright, owned in just 1% of Fleaflicker leagues. Wright broke a streak of 5 consecutive games for the Jaguars in which they did not convert a FG. Wright went 3/3 on field goals in the game in London, including a 54-yard masterpiece that had Kevin Harlan fooled and resulted in a really great call. Wright also kicked the game winner as time expired, snapping the Jaguars losing streak at 20 games – a streak which started following Week 1 of last year, which was their only win of the season. Despite it being a lower week for kicker scoring – nobody made more than 3 field goals in any game so far in Week 6, there was only 1 missed extra point across the league, a far cry from the 13 extra points that were missed last week.

11 Points Allowed

Congrats to the top D/ST of the week, the Los Angeles Rams. Their 16 points on the week increased their season total points by 66%, showing that you really just need to be playing matchups when it comes to selecting a D/ST. The Rams managed to take the top spot by just beating the snot out of the Giants with 3 INTs, 4 sacks and 1 fumble recovery to go with just 11 points allowed. In fact, the 38-11 victory completed an NFL scorigami. If you haven’t heard of a scorigami, check it out here. This is the first of the season, which is probably rare since there were 12 all of last season. I suppose fewer and fewer each year is the nature of a scorigami. The last one we had was the Steelers-Browns playoff game last year which ended 48-37. Can you tell I quickly ran out of things to say about the Rams yesterday? Their beatdown of the Giants was about as ho-hum as it gets.

30 WRs with 10+ Points

Week 5 saw a solid 30 wide receivers put up at least 10 fantasy points, which is just a middle of the road total for the year. What sticks out to me is that only 5 players had at least 100 receiving yards on the day, showing that half PPR and full PPR as the new standards are here to stay for anyone that loves points in fantasy football, which is probably all of us. Previously this year, the fewest number of WRs with 100+ receiving yards was 10, which happened twice. Leading the way last week was CeeDee Lamb with 149 yards – 56 of those yards came on the Cowboys final drive which took place in OT, capped off by Lamb’s 35-yard TD reception to walk-off the game. Honorable mention for a WR stat monster goes to Ja’Marr Chase, who is 30^th among WRs with only 27 receptions, but 4^th overall in receiving yards with 553. He has 19 fewer receptions than the 3 men ahead of him, all of whom are sitting on 46 receptions for the year.