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The first week of the NFL season is in the books and it was a real humdinger for Survivor Pools. For the pool I participate in, we saw over half of the 1275 entrants eliminated after week one. A vast majority of the L's came at the hands of Fitzmagic defeating the New Orleans Saints 48-40 in a stunning upset. If you followed my advice and went with the Ravens over the Bills, then you were raising your glass over and over again as the Ravens laid one on the Bills 47-3.

In last week's article I laid out the winning strategy to employ this year, which is to pick the team playing the Bills. This week I suggest you stick to that winning formula and choose the San Diego Chargers of Los Angeles/ Carson. The Chargers are playing their second of sixteen road games this season in Buffalo as rookie quarterback Josh Allen gets his first NFL start. The Chargers and their highly touted defense were lit up by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but surely they will bounce back against a Bills team that couldn't get anything going in week 1.

Now, if anyone can screw this up it is the Chargers. After all they are the only team defeated by the Browns in the last 2 seasons. But, I think it safe to take them here as 7.5 point road favorites and not have to worry about them the rest of the year. Look for them to cover that spread as well.

Cheers!

Drink Five

Well, the Vikings twisted the knife that was put in my heart week one by the Saints loss, and ended my dream of survivor riches. Boy am I looking forward to tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Vikings of Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams. Clearly, the Vikings have been preparing for this game for two weeks based on their performance last week against the Bills. It has been 23 years since an NFL team has been favored by as much as the Vikings were last week vs the Bills and lost, a truly historic game. I haven't watched much Vikings football this season, but on paper it seems to me that we are all finding out why the Redskins wouldn't pay Kirk Cousins. I got the Rams in this game and if it wasn't for some uncertainty at corner-back caused by injury, I would like the Rams in a runaway.

On to my not-never-wrong survivor lock pick of the week. The three largest favorites this week (as if that means anything) are the Chargers -10.5, Packers -9.5, and the Jaguars -7.5. Out of these three I am going to eliminate the Packers from my options, Josh Allen has two legs and Aaron Rodgers only has one. The Pack still probably get the win here but I'm just not comfortable picking the Packers until Rodgers looks healthier.

I like the Jags at home against Sam Darnold and the Jets. That defense is just too good and I think they will be able to confuse the rookie QB. I was given a little bit of pause by the Jags loss to the Titans last week, but I guess it was “for the boys”.

That brings me to my pick the San Diego - I mean Los Angeles Chargers. If you didn't already use the Chargers in week 2 against the Bills, this is the next best spot for them. They get the 49ers and backup QB C.J. Beathard coming in for a bounce back game. San Francisco's season went down the crapper when Jimmy “G-spot” tore up his knee on a moronic sideline cutback play. Never have I heard so much hate on a guy for an injury. The Chargers looked like a borderline playoff team against the Rams last week and could easily win the division if their defense ever shows up.

Cheers! Drink Five!

Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!

Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.

If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.

Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!

Cheers,

Drink Five!

Denver Broncos

What’s changed since last year? Let’s start with Joe Flacco as the starting QB of the Broncos, that’ll be interesting. And ringmaster John Elway rolled the dice on another young QB in Drew Lock, selected #42 overall in the rookie draft. They recently picked up the former Lion Theo Riddick, though he has a fractured shoulder to work through (6-8 weeks), but the biggest offensive boon from a fantasy standpoint may come from rookie TE Noah Fant (TE20), who has been compared to a Jimmy Graham / Aaron Hernandez / Eric Ebron type of receiving Tight End.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Broncos’ receivers beyond Emmanuel Sanders (WR45) are a bit of a jumble right now (he’s the only WR on the roster that has had a 45-catch season in the NFL), but signs point to 2^nd year Courtland Sutton (WR38, drafted round 2, 2018) breaking out as he transitions to the #1 WR on the Broncos. 704 yards and 4 TDs on 42 receptions last year could lead to bigger and better, especially since he was pushed in as a rookie to fill the shoes of Demariyus Thomas after Thomas was traded to the Texans in late October.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Although his ADP is still very low, I’m hearing whispers from Denver beat reporters that Royce Freeman (10^th round ADP, RB39) will have an increased workload in 2019 – splitting time or even taking most of Phillip Lindsay’s (5^th round ADP, RB22) short-yardage and goal-line touches. This is not to say that Lindsay won’t have a good season – just that he’s likely being overvalued whereas Freeman should outperform his ADP.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Phillip Lindsay is currently the highest drafted Bronco with an ADP of 42 overall, but I would not consider him a stud – therefore Denver is currently bereft of any surefire game-winning players that you could draft with near 100% certainty in my mind.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? One player that may go undrafted in some leagues but could also fit the ‘sleeper’ tag and will be picked up on the waiver wire at some point during the season (early on, probably) is Daesean Hamilton (20^th round ADP, WR66). Hamilton ended the year averaging 9.5 targets over his last 4 games and will be the primary slot receiver for the Broncos. He could easily eclipse Courtland Sutton (and did last year as Sutton did not take off strong from the starting line), but will never be a #1 receiver (comps to Steve Johnson of the Bills who had several seasons of around 80 receptions for 1000+ yards).

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Noah Fant is more than likely the only rookie this year that will have a fantasy impact. Currently being drafted as the 20^th TE off the board, he will score some TDs and be a waiver wire fill-in at the very least. QB Drew Lock is not likely to play this season unless there is an injury to Joe Flacco, but that’s certainly a possibility, and round 6 WR flier Juwann Winfree is a developmental prospect who could be good down the road but doesn’t profile as impactful this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

What’s changed since last year? The Chiefs picked up WR Mecole Hardman (4.33-second 40-yard dash, yipes! 18^th round ADP, WR61) in round 2, and RB Darwin Thompson (19^th round ADP, RB60) in round 6 this year’s NFL draft. They signed free agent and former Jaguar Carlos Hyde (12^th round ADP, RB44), and they were able to keep Tyreek Hill (ADP 17, WR6) out of jail.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? I would say Sammy Watkins (9^th round ADP, WR34) but he already broke out with over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in 2015. 4^th year WR Demarcus Robinson (ADP 264, WR91) is a possible breakout candidate after the departure of Chris Conley (and previously Albert Wilson). Robinson will be going into a contract year and if Watkins can’t stay healthy again, Robinson should slot right in as the 3^rd option in the passing game, behind Hill and Kelce. He has reportedly been working with Mahomes on deep-ball plays, so that’s certainly promising.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? If you’re paying attention to the current situation at RB, there is a war waging. Rookie Darwin Thompson could challenge Carlos Hyde for the backup role, or even supplant Williams as the starter in Kansas City if he continues to show issues with his hamstring. Thompson flashed some good talent during the first preseason game and the Chiefs have not been particularly loyal to RBs since Andy Reid took the reins. Reid has already stated that a RBBC approach may be the best for this season, casting a shadow over the whole situation. Thompson is a high-risk, high-reward pick.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Chiefs have a player being drafted within the top 15 of every offensive position. In fact, if you take out Damien Williams (ADP 25, RB14), you get 3 guys in Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce that are all arguably top 5. But Mahomes and Kelce both have ADPs of #1 for their respective positions, so they are clearly the answer here. If in a standard draft only starting 1 QB, the most valuable over replacement player (VORP) award goes to Travis Kelce.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? There’s not much to work with here, but again I look at Darwin Thompson as a guy that will likely go undrafted unless chosen as a sleeper, and there is a high likelihood that either Damien Williams or Carlos Hyde have some kind of injury that will allow Thompson to climb up the depth chart, at least for a short time. Whoever the top RBs are on KC on any given Sunday, they will both hold fantasy value.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? I’ve covered Darwin Thompson – Mecole Hardman was being hyped up as a possible Tyreek Hill replacement/fill-in if Hill was to be disciplined by the NFL for issues off the field in the offseason. Hill was not suspended and Hardman will likely not have a fantasy relevant role in the current offense, barring injury, etc.

Los Angeles Chargers

What’s changed since last year? Tyrod Taylor was added and will serve as a great backup QB, and Tyrell Williams was released and picked up by the Raiders. Antonio Gates is again a free agent, and as long as Hunter Henry is healthy, this could be the first season that the Chargers won’t have Gates on their roster since 2003.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? This one is easy. 3^rd year WR Mike Williams (ADP 61, WR25) had 10 TDs in 2018 on 66 targets (43 receptions for 664 yards), but the departure of Tyrell Williams will open more targets for him in the offense immediately. The fact that the Chargers didn’t go out to get more receivers shows trust in his new role as the solid #2 WR. Williams played all 16 games last year after struggling a little with injuries in his rookie season.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Melvin Gordon (ADP 23, RB13) is holding out for a larger contract, and has officially requested a trade out of Los Angeles. Scary stuff. If the two sides come to an agreement and all is well, Austin Ekeler (8^th round ADP, RB34) will still have value as one of the better backups with pass-catching ability out of the backfield, but Justin Jackson (17^th round ADP, RB57) is a sleeper candidate that could give you an RB2/3 with the last pick of the draft. The question is, will Gordon’s situation be resolved or not? It’s currently pushing his ADP down further each week.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The top drafted player on the Chargers is Keenan Allen (ADP 28, WR11), and there is no reason why he shouldn’t finish the season with around 100 receptions, 1200 yards, and 6 TDs, just as he has for the previous two seasons. He has also not missed a game since 2016. Draft Allen confidently in all formats.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Travis Benjamin (ADP 291, WR99) should be able to secure the #3 WR spot behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and in an offense where Phillip Rivers has thrown for more than 4,000 yards 6 years in a row, Benjamin could absolutely be a waiver wire fill-in as a WR4/5 in some weeks this season.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Chargers drafted QB Easton Stick in round 5 as a developmental pick and possible successor to Phillip Rivers, but he’s not fantasy relevant at this point. No other offensive picks to mention this year.

Oakland Raiders

What’s changed since last year? There’s been quite a few changes in Oakland – perhaps they’re getting ready for the big change to Las Vegas, but I digress. The big move for the Raiders was to acquire Antonio Brown from the Steelers for a 3^rd and 5^th round pick. At the time, it seemed like a steal. Now it seems like the Steelers might have the last laugh. They also signed Tyrell Williams, formerly of the Chargers. Derek Carr’s favorite target last season, Jared Cook, is no longer on the team – but I think the new toys at WR should go a long way in consoling him. Finally, the Raiders used one of their three first round picks on a RB, Josh Jacobs from Alabama.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? The best breakout contender on the Raiders is JJ Nelson. This doesn’t mean that we’ve forgotten Tyrell Williams, it’s just that he basically already broke out in 2016 with over 1000 yards. But back to Nelson – he’s a burner who was drafted to the Cardinals back when Bruce Arians was the coach. He fits systems where you can go deep and take shots down the field. That’s not quite what the Raiders have been in the past, but with the other additions at WR, it’s certainly the direction that the team is heading this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Currently, Hunter Renfrow (ADP 375, WR113) is not being drafted, but could find his way into a big role this season. As long as he’s not singing, he has looked pretty good on Hard Knocks and seems to be incorporated into the offense already. It helps that basically every WR is new to the team this year. Renfrow is listed on the depth chart as the starting slot receiver, so expect him to see some looks early, especially since Carr likes to throw it over the middle.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Based on the advice of our resident Raiders expert, Tad Bukowski, he has stated firmly and unequivocally that Antonio Brown is still the stud WR that we all remember from years past. He’s currently sitting at ADP 22 (WR11) which is his cheapest draft cost since he was a rookie. Of course, that’s due to his new surroundings, but hey, AB is AB and it’s hard to argue against his six straight seasons with over 100 catches. He’s scored 67 touchdowns during that time as well.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Two guys that you can check out – Hunter Renfrow mentioned above) and Darren Waller, who was signed off the Ravens practice squad. Waller is currently the starting TE on the depth chart and has an ADP of 322 (TE27), so he’s likely to be a streaming TE option for the early part of the season. If he can fill the Jared Cook role from last season, then Waller is going to be fantasy relevant for sure. As for Renfrow, he will likely be on the waiver wire unless there’s a Raiders fan in your league – but he isn’t likely to stay there long.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The two main rookies on this team are Josh Jacobs (ADP 36, RB21) and Hunter Renfrow. The rest of the early picks the Raiders had were for the defense. Jacobs should lead the backfield in carries this season and is currently looked at as an RB2/3 and will likely be in most starting fantasy lineups this season. Renfrow has a ways to go to be fantasy relevant this season, but he is Tad’s pick on the Raiders to rise the ranks quickly and be a contributor to this offense.