Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

 

15 Passing TD's

 

Through 6 games, Texans rookie and frequent source of material for this column, Deshaun Watson has thrown 15 passing touchdowns, not to mention the two he's gotten via rushing. This total matches the 2016 Houston Texans entire season. Having the exact same receiving core makes this even more impressive, though you could argue that there are fewer weapons this season, with all their TE's injured. Watson has been beyond impressive and is set to crush all the rookie passing records and turn in the best rookie QB season ever, passing guys like Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Dan Marino. This hype train could roll all the way to Canton.

 

3 Points or Less

 

The San Francisco 49ers have lost their last 5 games by 3 points or less, a feat that is so rare it makes you think they should play the lottery, or perhaps, whatever is the opposite of the lottery. Yesterday even saw the benching of Brian Hoyer, destroyer of his own teams, for C.J. Beathard. Beathard, of course, is the grandson of Bobby Beathard, former NFL GM. Why the team calling the game had to announce this every 5 minutes is beyond me, but clearly it's important and must be repeated as often as possible. C.J. Beathard will soon be known as the guy who gets benched for whoever the 49ers sign next season (Kirk Cousins, anybody?).

 

25.40 Fantasy Points

 

No more old man jokes for the Purple Jesus (just blasphemous ones, please). Adrian Peterson was his old self, racking up 134 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs on Sunday. Who needs to catch the ball when you have Larry Fitzgerald doing all that for you. Peterson averaged 5.2 yards per carry and was explosive from the very start of the game, putting up more yards on the opening drive than the Cardinals averaged all season. The 160 yards the Cardinals got on the ground yesterday is only 99 short of their season total going into that game. Did Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson just become best friends?

 

25+ Fantasy Points

 

Move over Quarterbacks, the Running Backs are once again dominating the fantasy football scoreboard. Sure, Kirk Cousins led the way with 28.8, but the next 4 highest scoring players were RB's, and some familiar high draft picks as well. Melvin Gordon, Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell and Mark Ingram all scored at least 25 points AND each had at least 25 carries. Maybe the talent available at this position is dictating a return to the bell cow back. I for one, welcome the return of the workhorse RB to fantasy football. There were 11 RB's that saw at least 20 touches in Week 6, led by Jordan Howard's 36 carries and 1 reception. As we head into fall and bad weather football, I expect to see even more work for running backs.

 

2.77 Inches per Carry

 

Thursday night was a rough one for the Carolina Panthers, and their running backs in particular. With 13 total carries, Christian McCaffrey, Fozzy Whittaker and Jonathan Stewart netted only 1 yard, good for an average of 2.77 inches per carry. A less classy organization might make lewd jokes about proudly carrying 2.77 inches, or letting the running game grow and not necessarily letting it show, but not us. No sir, I don't care what kind of flaccid running game you bring to Thursday night football, we won't make you the butt of the joke at the end of an article. Not us here at drinkfive, we have way more class than that. Or not. Penis.

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

3 Touchdowns in a Game

 

Last night Le'Veon Bell scored three touchdowns to help the Steelers in a dramatic comeback win over the Ravens. Yesterday was also, I'm sure you're aware, the first week of the fantasy football players. When it comes to the playoffs, one guy really excels at getting you off to a good start. In his last three Week 14 games, he has scored 3 times each. Over those three games, Bell is averaging just under 40 points per game. That's a hell of a way to start the playoffs and well worth his high draft position every year. This year, his performance was a bit below average, putting up a measly 30.50 points, which was still good for the best fantasy performance of the weekend. This "disappointing" performance will cause me to limit my entries on Bell this year, unlike Week 14 of last season.

 

116 Receiving Yards Per Game

 

Even though Bell is scoring touchdowns left and right, he's not the MVP of his team. No sir, that title belongs to Antonio Brown. Last night he hung 213 yards on the Ravens on 11 receptions. This is his second 200+ yard game, and the 12th time he has gone over 150 yards in his career. 5 of those 150+ yard games have come this season. This year, Brown is averaging 116 receiving yards per game, he leads the league with 1509 (well ahead of the pack) and he's on pace to set a career high in receiving yards. This is his most explosive season of his career as well, averaging 15.2 yards per catch, another career high. His yards, yards per game, and total receptions of 99 also lead the league in 2017. If ever there was a case for a non-QB to be considered for league MVP, Antonio Brown's 2017 season is it.

 

2-0 Record

 

Since assuming starting duties for the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo has gone 2-0, leading the 49ers directly away from very high draft pick territory. If they're not careful, they could even drop out of the top 10 picks. Sarcasm aside, tanking is disgraceful (lookin' at you, John Mara). So, Jimmy G hasn't lit up the score sheets, but he is playing well and creating some fantasy value for himself (in 2 QB leagues) and the guys around him. Robbie Gould has 9 field goals in the last 2 games, a product of an offense that is moving the ball quite well. Marquise Goodwin has put together two solid games, Carlos Hyde is back to a regular RB2 and even Garrett Celek got in on the action this past week. The 49ers have matchups against the Titans and then Jaguars, so get them in your lineup for Week 15 and be very cautions for Week 16.

 

2-0 Record in Overtime

 

Not only did Brett Hundley preserve the Packers chances to make the playoffs, but he improved his career record in overtime to 2-0. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it looks a lot better than Aaron Rodgers' 1-7 record. The major side effect of this win for Hundley is that it basically assures that Rodgers will come back next week. Assuming that Rodgers is back to himself for this week (indications so far are that he is), this is great news if you stashed him for your playoff run. Jordy Nelson should also return to relevance, so check your wire to see if a frustrated owner cut him a few weeks ago. Davante Adams has actually been solid with Hundley, so hopefully you've already been starting him. The biggest question is going to be the production of Jamaal Williams. He has been a great waiver wire find to close out the season, scoring 67.6 points over the last 3 weeks. I feel that his production will take a hit with Rodgers in, but he has to be started because his usage should still be high.

 

161 Yards

 

No, that's not how much snow fell on the Colts-Bills game on Sunday. This was a freaking awesome game to watch on TV - I love watching bad weather games, and none look better than a game with a ridiculous amount of snow. In the, we'll say inclement weather, both teams combined for a whopping 161 passing yards. Jacoby Brissett's longest pass went for 11 yards, so maybe it wasn't exactly a banner day for all of the ex-Patriots quarterbacks. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy had 156 rush yards in the game. He had the walk-off winner, a 21 yard rush for a touchdown in overtime with only 1:33 left in the game. McCoy clearly loves playing in the snow - 4 years ago he had 217 yards and 2 TD's in Philly against Detroit in an equally snowy game.

You just drafted a shiny new team and you’re ready to just let the chalk go and start all the guys you drafted in the top half of the draft. Seems like a good idea, right? After all, you did draft the best team in your league. You did the research. You’re anxious to prove that, despite the lack of preseason, you, Football Nostradamus, know exactly what to do here.

 

Slow down. Just stop. It’s Week 1 and nobody has really been hit yet. This season is going to take some time for all the players to get used to it. So, here’s five players that are going to bust out week 1 and you should keep on your bench until they’re properly warmed up for the season.

 

Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) @ Buffalo – I can’t think of a greater disparity between the talent a player has and the level with which his coach does not want him around for no damn reason. Bell has had a rough time in New York and it’s not going to get any easier this week. When asked about what to expect the first week without real practice, Jeff Fisher said on Slow News Day, “There’s going to be a lot of balls on the ground…It’s hard to hang on to that brown thing.” Fisher is truly the 7-9 of NFL poets. However, he does have a point. My prediction this week is that Le’Veon Bell fumbles twice, is benched, and that Frank Gore will lead the Jets in carries week 1. Keep Bell on your bench and hope that he has better days ahead. Or gets traded. The second one is probably a better option for him.

 

Everyone but Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs in the OAK @ CAR game. I say, with great confidence that these two players will combine for about 60% of the entire offensive output of this game. That leaves little else to be spread throughout the rest of the two teams. The Raiders are stuck with two rookie wideouts and one second-year guy. The Panthers have a brand new QB after riding the backup QB carousel most of the year last year. The featured back for both teams are likely to be used so heavily that production from a third player in this game will likely be a fluke at best. The Panthers gave up the 7^th fewest points to opposing TEs last year, so even Darren Waller is a risky start here. Just start McCaffrey or Jacobs if you have them and refer to your bench if you have anyone else in this game. That’s what they’re there for!

 

Leonard Fournette (TB) @ New Orleans – Going off the board as the #20 RB in half ppr (the new official scoring format of drinkfive.com), one might be fooled into thinking that Fournette is worthy of at least a flex start. Do not fall in to this trap! Fournette is firmly behind both Ronald Jones and LeSean McCoy on the Bucs depth chart. You must wait until Jones blows a protection and gets Brady sacked (now a felony offense in on the gulf coast of Florida) and McCoy reveals that he is not, in fact, Frank Gore, the ageless one. Only then will it be safe to start Fournette. Besides, I’m imagining a game where both teams throw the ball 40+ times in what could easily be the highest scoring game of the week.

 

Will Fuller (HOU) @ Kansas City – Fuller is entering this season, presumably, as the Texans #1 WR. He’s had success on the Texans in fits and starts, even putting up an absurd 50+ points in a game last year. There’s just one problem. Fuller has never taken the field as a pro without Deandre Hopkins also being on the field. This means that he has very rarely received the attention from opposing defenses that he’s about to get this year. The Chiefs gave up the second fewest points to opposing WRs last year. They’re also set to open the season all fired up from their Super Bowl win 7 months ago. If you can, steer clear of Will Fuller this week and let the Texans find their groove in the next couple of weeks, because it’s not happening on Thursday night.

 

Bold Bust of the Week:

 

Derrick Henry (TEN) @ Denver – Derrick Henry is notoriously a slow starter. Until last year, he didn’t crack 26 rushing yards in the first game of the season. He’s never had a game with 100+ rushing yards before week 4. Last year he did have a solid showing, but that was against Cleveland, and they’re, well, the Browns. This year the Titans face the Broncos to put a cap on week 1. The Broncos are suddenly without two of their best pass rushers, which leaves the door open for Ryan Tannehill to follow up his 2019 Comeback Player of the Year award with a big performance. You probably drafted Henry too high to bother listening to me, but keep him out of your daily fantasy lineups and remember that I told you so when he puts up fewer than 10 points in the season opener.