Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The time for drafting and sleepers and value picks and auctions have all past, it's now time for real football to be played! Week 1 starts on Thursday night with the matchup between the Panthers and Broncos in the mile-high city. Make sure you also check out our podcast where Dave and Jason break down all the Week 1 matchups.

Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/6/16: Week 1 Preview

As far as this week's rankings go, it's Week 1, so it's probably going to be the biggest crapshoot of the year. You are likely going to have very few decisions to make on Sunday - this is a good thing. Go with the guys you drafted high and be patient. If you are interested in a few guys we're high on, look for Kirk Cousins to do well against Pittsburg, Danny Woodhead to get some nice garbage points in KC and Larry Fitzgerald to shine on a team that is 3-deep at wideout.

Well, the end is here. It's championship week, and hopefully you're fighting for a title and not a few scraps for third place. If you listened to us, I suspect you've at least made it rather far in your league. This week, we've got some interesting matchups and a lot of games in weird time slots. Just remember that there's a Thursday game, most of the games are on Saturday, there's 2 Sunday games and a Monday night game as well. That's a lot of football to watch!

This week we really like Cam Newton's matchup against the Falcons - he was a top 5 QB last week and should approach that again. At wideout, we still like Dontrelle Inman, but think you should maybe look elsewhere if you have Larry Fitzgerald, who has struggled mightily these last few weeks. Finally, we really like Cameron Brate, but you were probably starting him anyways. Good luck this week!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

45.9 QB Rating

Tom Brady had an abysmal QB rating in Sunday’s game, his lowest rated game since 2006, although his Week 16 game last year against Buffalo when he put up a 48.3 rating is close. This is trying to develop into a division rivalry, though Brady’s pure dominance against Buffalo (31-3), suggests otherwise. It’s been hard to find a division rival for the Patriots in the last couple decades. Still, Brady put up a whopping 4.7 points as the QB26 so far this week, so at least we know he’s human. What may not be human is the Patriots defense and special teams this season. They scored another touchdown this week, which means that they have 3 TDs vs just 1 yielded on defense (and another on special teams). At 86 points on the season, they are the 6^th highest scoring “player” across all positions. They have 60% more points than the next highest scoring D/ST, the Bears – who have looked incredibly dominant.

15,021 Rush Yards and 1,326 Receptions

Congrats are due to Frank Gore and Larry Fitzgerald, who both reached milestone career stats on Sunday. Gore became just the 4^th player to rush for over 15,000 yards – just north of 8.5 miles gained from scrimmage. We’ve constantly been wrong when predicting the demise of Frank Gore, so I just want to say that you rock, Frank! Keep proving us wrong, because this must be his last season, right? I suppose being the RB20 and putting up double digits each of the last 3 weeks begs to differ. Meanwhile, down in the desert, Larry Fitzgerald is now second all time on the career receptions list, just behind Jerry Rice, whom is 226 receptions ahead, which is probably 3 seasons away if Larry wants to make a run at it. Fitzgerald is the WR20 so far this year and has put up 42 points, while Gore has 42.10 points. Aside from the position they play, they’re basically the same player.

81 Yard Rushing…. non-Touchdown

Leonard Fournette broke free on Sunday for an 81 yard rumble, the longest play in the NFL this season that did not result in a touchdown. Still, Fournette wound up as the RB3 on the week so far, with 225 rushing yards and another 20 receiving yards tacked on to that. The real story in Jacksonville is Gardner Minshew II, clearly a future hall of famer. Maybe that’s just what I want to happen, but I’ve been a fan since he got in the game Week 1 and completed 13 consecutive passes to start his career. Minshew is the QB16 on the season, ahead of guys like Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers. He’s only owned in 11% of Yahoo leagues and has a floor of 16 points on the season – pretty good for a rookie who wasn’t supposed to start.

36.30 Fantasy Points

Your clubhouse leader in points in Week 4 is Nick Chubb, who had a ridiculous 183 yards from scrimmage to go along with 3 TDs. The Browns offense finally exploded for the first real time this season, beating the first place Ravens. The Browns, 2-2, are now tied with those same Ravens for first place in the AFC North. Chubb was a one-man wrecking crew, far outpacing his fellow fantasy star teammates, Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr., who both had a higher QB rating than anyone for Washington. Mayfield had his best game of the season, 16.78 points, which is basically Gardner Minshew’s floor. Minshew Mania, baby!

5 of the Top 10 QBs in Week 4

So far this week, 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, by fantasy points, are owned in 68% of leagues or fewer. This stat can only get crazier tonight if either Andy Dalton (36% owned) or Mason Rudolph (10% owned) can put up a 20-point game. Jameis Winston leads the way in both points and ownership, throwing for 4 TDs in a high scoring upset of the LA Rams where his team put up a franchise record 55 points. Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota and Joe Flacco all found themselves in the top 10. Between the 4 of them, their ownership overs around 27%. The top 10 QBs combined for a 4-6 record, so maybe we need to start picking, or at least streaming, QBs from bad teams instead of the good ones. Nah. I’ll take my chances with a Patrick Mahomes, this week’s QB12, who is on pace for 6000 yards this season. He didn’t even throw a TD this week despite his team putting up 34 points.

Webster's defines a trend as: "the general movement over time of a statistically detectable change". Here at drinkfive.com, we generally like trends that show 3 weeks of an uptick or regression of player's usage, effectiveness or general point scoring. Check out the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to hear a more in-depth discussion about all of these players. All fantasy point totals are based on Yahoo standard scoring, unless otherwise indicated.

Aaron Rodgers, Wk 5 @ DAL 9.42, Wk 6 vs DET 19.32, Wk 7 vs OAK 43.76.

This year, Aaron Rodgers has not quite looked like himself. For the first 6 weeks, he only had one game above 20 points. His utterly dominant performance in Week 7 seems to indicate that he’s gotten back on track. Over the past three weeks, he’s gone from his lowest total (mainly due to Aaron Jones’ huge game in Dallas) up to arguably his best game of his career last week against Oakland. The Packers offense did look pretty terrible to start the season, and personally I felt that it was the fault of the play calling. It seems like this has improved, and some of Rodgers’ passing numbers are looking pretty good. He has 12.5 yards per completion, his best since 2014 when he was an All-pro. His 8.1 yards per pass attempt is also the highest it’s been since 2014 (the Pack went 12-4 that season). As long as his receiving group doesn’t just completely fall apart (he’ll eventually get Davante Adams back), he should continue to creep up the QB list – he’s currently the QB7 in fantasy football.

David Montgomery, Wk 4 vs MIN 6.70, Wk 5 @ OAK 9.60, Wk 7 vs NO -0.10.

Montgomery was quite a hyped back coming into the season, and he’s still owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, but the Bears run game has disappeared. Montgomery’s carries have gone from a season high of 21 in Wk 4 down to 11 and then just 2 carries last week. The Bears have totally abandoned the run game, and have been heavily criticized by the Chicago media because of it. Aside from a random score in Week 5, he has belonged firmly on your bench, which is not befitting of a player who has this kind of ownership share in leagues. The Bears upcoming games are vs LAC, @PHI and vs DET. The Chargers and Lions are both giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs, but I have no faith in the team to run the ball consistently. Not knowing what to expect from this situation, I suggest just staying away from it – don’t be tempted by good matchups or thinking that outside pressure will change the way they call plays.

Chase Edmonds, Wk 5 @ CIN 14.60, Wk 6 vs ATL 12.70, Wk 7 @ NYG 33.00.

Edmonds has been very impressive the last 3 weeks, and coincidentally (or not), the Cardinals have won all 3 of those games. David Johnson was limited last week with a back injury (he should ask Jalen Ramsey about his guy…), but now he’s missing practice with an ankle injury, so I expect to see more Edmonds in Week 8. Edmonds snap percentage had been varying from about 10-40% with Johnson in, but with him out, he was in on 94% of offensive snaps last week. Sure, the Cardinals signed Alfred Morris and Zach Zenner, but they’re just guys to fill out the roster. Edmonds has 5 TDs in the last 3 weeks and will be full steam ahead, even against a tough New Orleans team, who will find the Cardinals a much tougher opponent than the one they faced last week.

John Brown, Wk 4 vs NE 6.90, Wk 5 @TEN 7.50, Wk 7 vs MIA 14.30.

The Bills offense has been a bit shaky, but John Brown has remained steady. He’s got 5 catches per game during this stretch, and his yardage has gone up in each game, from 69 to 75 to 83 last week with a TD tacked on. Brown is on the field for 80+% of snaps every game, with two of the last three going above 90%. He led the team in targets the last 2 weeks and is just 1 behind Cole Beasley for the team lead in targets for the season. He has a significant lead on receiving yards on the team this year. Brown should continue to trend in the right direction as he has great matchups coming up. His next 3 games are vs PHI, vs WAS and @CLE. The Eagles and Redskins are both in the top 10 giving up points to WRs, and Cleveland is 19th. Brown is the WR22 in standard scoring this year, keep him in your lineup for the time being.

Larry Fitzgerald, Wk 5 @CIN 5.80, Wk 6 vs ATL 6.90, Wk 7 @NYG 1.20.

Fitz started the season with back-to-back 100+ yard games and 2 TDs in his first 3, but has not done a lot since then. His yardage high is just 69 during the last 5 weeks, and that came against a really soft Atlanta defense. Last week against the Giants, who are just as soft, he managed just one catch for 12 yards, though that probably had more to do with the way the game was going and how well the Cardinals were running the ball. Regardless, he often trails the RBs in receiving yardage and it’s possible that his age is finally catching up with him. He has to play in New Orleans this week and then plays the 49ers twice in the following three weeks. These are all bad matchups for him and he should probably be on your bench, or the trading block, if you can drum up any interest.