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Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Hopefully your teams are well positioned for the final playoff push with just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. Week 11 felt like a return to fantasy normalcy after a tumultuous and unpredictable few weeks before it. We still saw a couple big upsets (Texans over the Titans, Colts over the Bills), but for the most part the good fantasy players performed well in week 11, and the rookies were no exception. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each got back into the end zone after failing to do so in their previous games. DeVonta Smith topped 60 yards for the 3^rd straight game, Elijah Moore topped 10 PPR points for the 5^th straight, and the trio of Kadarius Toney, Jaylen Waddle, and Rondale Moore each had a reception bonanza despite minimal yardage. The rookies should have plenty more in store for us in week 12.

I’m going to try something a little different with the Rookie Report this week. Every week I try to touch on every fantasy relevant rookie, but realistically you don’t need several sentences to tell you not to start Larry Rountree III in your lineups. With that in mind, I’m going to have two brief sections on rookies you already know to start, and rookies you already know to sit, with just a brief stat about each. I’m going to split the ‘Borderline Rookies’ section into guys that I’d lean toward starting, and guys that I’d lean toward sitting, and will finish as always with the ‘Deep League Sleepers.’ Hopefully you find this format a little more useful going forward.

The same usual notes still apply – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all mentions of points per game and points allowed are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 12…

Rookies you Already Know you Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Harris’ lightest workload since week 2 still resulted in 17 touches and an RB12 finish last weekend. The Bengals have allowed the 9^th-most points per game to opposing backs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Chase earned his second-lowest target total of the season in the first go-round with the Steelers but finished that game with a 20-point fantasy day. Chase’s overall production has been a little lower in his last 3 games, but he’s still cleared 10 fantasy points in all but one game this season.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Since Tua’s return from injury in week 6, Waddle has garnered 8+ targets in 5 of 6 games, 7+ receptions in 4 of 6, and 60+ yards in 5 of 6. He’s been the PPR WR17 in points per game in that span. The Panthers have allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game this season, so I could see being hesitant to get him in the lineup in non-PPR formats, but don’t let the Panthers scare you off in full PPR (and probably not in half-PPR either).

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Please note that I only suggest starting Jones in superflex formats or leagues deeper than 12 teams, but this is a week where he has more upside than usual. The Colts and Texans are the only teams all year to fall short of 270 passing yards against the Titans this season, and this game should have the least favorable game script the Patriots have faced in the last few weeks after 3 straight easy wins. Jones has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game in the last 3 weeks after throwing 30+ times in 7 of his first 8 games. I expect Jones to get back to 30+ attempts in this game, and assuming he’s his usual, efficient self with those attempts, he’s going to likely finish as a high-end QB2.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): Ahead of Denver’s week 11 bye, Javonte played more snaps in a game than teammate Melvin Gordon for just the 2^nd time all season. While I doubt it’s a true changing of the guard, it would be wise for Denver to give Williams more playing time down the stretch as they take their last swings at staying in the playoff chase. Williams has consistently looked like the better back. Week 12 brings one of the best matchups of the season for this backfield. The Chargers have allowed the 4^th-most running back points per game, and rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Even with a split workload, this is a great opportunity for Javonte to post a top-20 performance. If his edge in playing time over Gordon continues, he could push even higher. You may have more trustworthy options than Williams on your roster, but this is a week where Javonte should have one of his best performances of the season.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Smith has continued to produce at a high level over the last 3 weeks even though the Eagles have transitioned to being a run-heavy football team, but his margin for error is smaller in the current version of the offense. Jalen Hurts has attempted just 21 passes per game in the last 3 weeks, but each week 6 of those attempts have gone in Smith’s direction, and he’s been efficient with those targets. Smith has scored 3 TDs in that span and posted 3 of his 4 best single-game yards per target marks of the season. Can he continue to turn limited volume into fantasy gold this week? I wouldn’t consider it automatic, but the matchup isn’t one to be afraid of. The Giants have allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game, and shadow corner James Bradberry hasn’t been the same player in 2021 that he was in 2020. Bradberry is allowing the highest marks he’s allowed on throws into his coverage in passer rating, yards per target, and yards per completion since his rookie year in 2018, and he’s seen his PFF coverage grade drop from 79.9 in 2020 to 64.8 in 2021. He still isn’t a complete pushover, so I wouldn’t pencil in a 5-60-1 line for the rookie just yet, but there aren’t many receivers you’d be considering around Smith’s range that have the kind of ceiling he does.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): The return of Lamar Jackson should mean good things for Bateman. The rookie had averaged 70 receiving yards on nearly 5 catches per game in the last 3 games he played with Lamar before putting up a dud with Tyler Huntley under center in week 11. The Browns have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game and have allowed 10+ fantasy points to 10 different receivers in the last 6 games. If Marquise Brown is out again, Bateman will likely tangle mostly with Browns’ top corner Denzel Ward, but I’d expect the bump in volume that would come along with Brown’s absence to offset the tougher individual matchup. Bateman is a reasonable WR3 option in all formats.

WR Kadarius Toney, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Toney finally looked to be fully healthy on Monday night against the Bucs, and the Giants made an aggressive effort to get him the football, targeting him on more than a third of his offensive snaps. All of those targets resulted in just 40 yards on 7 catches, but he gets a matchup favorable to his skill set this week. The Eagles play a lot of Cover 2 zone defense, which should leave a lot of holes for Toney to settle into underneath the deep safeties. Philly also allows the 14^th-most yards after catch, which means Toney could have some success piling up extra yards with the ball in his hands. If Toney is used the same way he was last week, I think a dozen or more fantasy points are in the offing for him. The biggest wild card here is what kind of offensive changes Freddie Kitchens will implement in his first week as interim OC. Kitchens’ one full season in charge of Cleveland’s play-calling included more than 8 targets per game for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., so he knows to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Toney is the best playmaker the Giants have at wide receiver.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): It’s getting harder each week to trust Pitts in your lineups with each dud he posts, but I urge you to ride with the rookie for another week. It’s been more than 4 weeks since the last time Pitts scored more than 10 PPR points, but I’m confident he’s going to get there this week. The Jaguars have allowed just the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but that number is worse than it looks. They’ve only faced 4 tight ends all season that rank in the top-20 in PPR points per game, and all 4 of them scored at least 13 points against Jacksonville. I fully expect Pitts to make it 5 out of 5.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Freiermuth played his lowest snap share since week 5 on Sunday night, but he still saw 7 targets come his way and scored a touchdown again. He now has at least 6 targets and 4 catches in 5 straight games and has gotten into the end zone 4 times in that span. The player who was taking his snaps in week 11, Eric Ebron, is expected to need knee surgery and is out for the foreseeable future. That means the rookie should go back up to a 70%+ snap share going forward. Freiermuth’s week 12 opponents, the Bengals, have given up a tight end touchdown in each of the last 3 games, and Muth himself got in the end zone against them in week 3. Freiermuth looks like a low-end top-10 play this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): A matchup against the defense allowing the 3^rd-most QB points per game is enough to get any QB consideration in 2-QB leagues, but this Jacksonville offense hasn’t shown enough life to trust Lawrence even in this prime spot. The Jaguars as a team have scored just 36 total points in the last 3 weeks. Trevor has accounted for more than 1 touchdown in just one of his last 9 games and has accounted for zero total touchdowns in the last 3 games combined. His best hope for fantasy production may be his legs. The Falcons have allowed 5 different QBs to run for over 25 yards, and two of them to run for over 60. Lawrence has rushed for 20+ yards 6 times this year. At the end of the day, starting Lawrence as your QB2 means you’re betting on him to post his best game in over a month. An inviting matchup isn’t enough to get me to make that bet.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): You might look at the opponent next to Wilson’s name and be tempted to consider him as a streamer in 2-QB leagues this week, but I’d caution against that. It’s true the Texans allowed 17+ QB points in 7 of their first 8 games and 20+ in 5 of them, but Wilson hasn’t shown that he can take advantage of a matchup like this yet and his floor is very low. Wilson failed to record a touchdown in 3 of the 5 full games he’s played, and you’re playing with fire if you’re counting on a big performance after a 5-week layoff. He’ll be shaking off the rust in this one, and while he may be able to lead his team to a win against the Texans, he’s less likely to lead your fantasy team to the same.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): If Mitchell can play this week, this isn’t a terrible spot to fire him up as a flex play, but it’s not a great one either. The 49ers offense has looked the best it’s looked all season in the last few weeks, and they face a Minnesota defense that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 11^th-most running back points per game. On paper, it looks like a great spot to play a starting running back in a run-first offense. The question is whether Mitchell will see a full starting running back workload. Mitchell played his lowest snap share of the season week 10 in Jeff Wilson Jr.’s first game back from IR, and the 49ers have utilized Deebo Samuel out of the backfield frequently in the last two weeks. Add in that Mitchell is still nursing that finger injury, and it’s easy to see him playing a smaller role than usual. When you also consider that he isn’t used as a pass-catcher, the potential path to a dud performance in this smash spot gets clearer. You could do worse than Mitchell in your lineups, but there’s more risk here than you’d think. Keep on eye on the injury updates from the 49ers if you’re considering using Mitchell.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): I love what we’ve seen out of Stevenson in recent weeks, but he’s in a full-fledged committee with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden right now, and the Titans have allowed the 4^th-fewest running back points per game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the rookie post another impressive game, but he’s likely going to be doing so from my bench unless I have limited options. Stevenson has handled at least a dozen touches and posted 70+ scrimmage yards in 3 straight games, but Damien Harris missed most of 2 of those games, and the other was a blowout win over the Falcons. I’m not counting on another 70-yard day on a dozen touches.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It will certainly feel counterintuitive to sit Moore given the production he’s put up in recent weeks, but it might be the right play with Zach Wilson getting the start for the Jets. Moore has been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 5 games. He found the end zone in 4 of them, and topped 60 receiving yards in the other, but Zach Wilson started only one of those games, and he was injured and replaced by Mike White in the first half of it. Moore has totaled just 98 scrimmage yards and 1 TD in the 5 games he’s played that Wilson started. That could turn around going forward. Wilson was drafted 2^nd overall for a reason, and Moore has clearly carved out a big role in this offense, but their shaky connection has me worried for week 12. Houston isn’t an imposing matchup. The Texans allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Moore is very much in play as a WR3 again this week, but I wouldn’t be plugging him in over other strong options this week.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Bates isn’t a guy I would usually give much consideration to, but he played an eye-popping 99% of Washington’s offensive snaps in week 11. He turned all of that playing time into just 3 catches for 23 yards. Logan Thomas did have his practice window opened to return from IR, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be active in week 12. If Thomas sits, Bates is no more than a desperation plug-in this week.

Rookies you Already Know you Should Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Andy Dalton is getting the start on Turkey Day.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Sermon handled 10 carries and 1 target last Sunday while splitting the backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. in Elijah Mitchell’s absence. The 49ers opened up a 21-3 lead before Sermon got his 2^nd touch of the game. His work was mostly in garbage time, and Mitchell is expected back this week.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): There is a little upside for Patterson this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA, but this feels like a JD McKissic week where the Football Team may be chasing points in a get-right game for Seattle’s offense. Patterson has carried the ball 22 times in the last 3 games, but he’s played just 34 offensive snaps. If you think Washington wins this week, Patterson has more upside than I’m giving him credit for.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 12: @Den.): The Chargers have played musical chairs with their RB2 spot this season, but Rountree hasn’t rushed for more than 11 yards since week 4.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): In Cam Newton’s first start this season, Hubbard went from change-of-pace back to complete afterthought, playing just one offensive snap. I don’t know if CMC played a higher snap share because he’s a week healthier, or if it was because there were fewer total plays as they played a slower tempo with Cam under center (Panthers ran 51 offensive plays in week 11 after running 75 in week 10). Either way, Hubbard isn’t going to play much this week unless it’s a blowout win.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Since the return of David Montgomery two weeks ago, Herbert has played just 17 offensive snaps and touched the ball 5 times.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): In the two games where Jefferson found the end zone, he played a total of just 14 snaps, and Jamaal Williams missed both games. He’s yet to play an offensive snap in a game that Jamaal Williams was active for.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Samaje Perine has stolen Evans’ pass-catching role behind Joe Mixon, and it was already a small role to begin with.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Felton has handled more than 3 touches in just one game, and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were inactive for it. Both should be active this week.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): If you missed the news, Carter is out a couple weeks with injury.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Over the last 5 games since his return from IR, Collins has seen the following target totals: 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2. He’s still been on the field for over 50% of the offensive snaps each week, but that’s not a trend you want to chase this week, even against a Jets’ defense that is vulnerable pretty much everywhere.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): Much as I expected, the change to Cam Newton didn’t turn things around for Marshall. WR Brandon Zylstra has played nearly double the snaps that Marshall has in the last 2 weeks, and Terrace has just 3 catch-less targets in those games.

WRs Dax Milne & Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This duo has played fewer combined snaps than Adam Humphries has seen in each of the last two weeks.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Schwartz missed last week’s game with a concussion suffered against the Patriots in week 10 and looks likely to miss this week as well. He’s posted fewer scrimmage yards in the last 10 weeks combined than he did in week 1.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): I think there are some spike weeks coming for Tremble, but I’m not ready to bank on this being one of them. It took just 2 targets from Cam Newton for Tremble to post his best yardage day of the season last week, but 2 or 3 targets aren’t likely to get it done against a Miami defense that has only allowed Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Mo-Alie Cox to reach 10 fantasy points against them at tight end.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Jordan is starting to get more regular playing time, but not enough that he’s a realistic lineup consideration. He’s totaled 6 catches for 57 yards and a score in the 3 games he’s been active for.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Gainwell has kind of been the forgotten man in Philly’s backfield in the last couple weeks. He was a healthy scratch in week 11, but he’s going to be active this week after an injury to Jordan Howard, and I like his chances to be a factor. Gainwell is the most skilled receiving back of the Eagles’ trio, and the Giants allow the 6^th-most running back receiving yards per game. Two of Gainwell’s 3 biggest fantasy days came against the defenses allowing the 5^th and 7^th-most RB receiving yards per game. He hasn’t faced any other teams in the top 8. Gainwell is obviously a risky play given how little he’s been involved in recent weeks, but he costs less than half what Boston Scott does on DraftKings for showdown contests, and I like his odds to outproduce his teammate in this one.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): I didn’t think it was possible to believe this, but Detroit’s pass catchers have to be relieved to see Jared Goff is slated to return this week after the performance from Tim Boyle last Sunday. ARSB pulled in all 4 of his targets for just 18 yards. That represented 23.3% of Boyle’s total passing yardage. This week St. Brown gets to face a Bears’ defense that allowed him to post 6 catches for 70 yards in their first meeting, and the Chicago secondary has gone downhill since then. ARSB’s most frequent matchup will be with Chicago slot corner Duke Shelley. Shelley has allowed 9 yards per target and a completion percentage of over 77% on throws into his coverage. I wouldn’t be eager to get any Lion WRs into my season-long lineups, but if you’re looking for a Detroit receiver to target in Thanksgiving DFS contests, Amon-Ra is my favorite option this week.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 12: @NE): Fitzpatrick has been quite the redemption story in recent weeks. He was a 4^th-round pick last spring but failed to make the Titans’ roster out of training camp, and instead was relegated to the practice squad. He’s worked his way back up to the active roster, and now finds himself in a prominent role in the offense as we head into week 12. Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson are both on injured reserve, and AJ Brown is battling a couple injuries suffered last Sunday. Fitzpatrick stepped in admirably, earning 6 targets and scoring his first career touchdown against the Texans. He’s likely to avoid New England’s top cover corner JC Jackson whether AJ Brown plays or not, and he could be in line for another 6+ targets. He’s an intriguing cheap DFS play and should be rostered in most dynasty formats.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 12: @Was.): This one is a pure hunch, and one that shouldn’t be tried in any high-stakes contests, but I really like Seattle’s chances to get the offense back on track this week against a Washington defense that ranks 31^st in defense DVOA, ahead of only the Jets. Of course, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Alex Collins are the most likely beneficiaries if that happens, but this feels like the right week to dial up a couple shot plays for Eskridge on a big stage Monday night. He’ll likely cost close to the minimum for Monday Night showdown slate contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Be aware of which of your players have a game on Thursday, and make sure you don’t miss out on getting them into your lineup because you were in a turkey coma. Also keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at week 13, which means the playoff chase in your leagues is heating up. We’re down to just the final two weeks of the regular season in most leagues and these next two matchups can be critical. The number thirteen is often associated with bad luck, so hopefully you’ve been able to avoid being hit by bad news on your players’ availability this week. Week 12 was a bit of a bummer for some of the elite rookies - Ja’Marr Chase, Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith and Kyle Pitts all had poor weeks – but their rookie slack was picked up by Mac Jones, Elijah Mitchell, Javonte Williams and Jaylen Waddle.

This week I’m going to stick with the format introduced in week 12. You obviously already know the most obvious starts & sits, so I don’t want to waste too much time on them. The bigger focus again is on what to do with the borderline rookies, as each lineup decision can be critical at this point in the season.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 13…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Harris has finished as a top-12 PPR running back 8 times in 11 games this season. The matchup with Baltimore isn’t an easy one – the Ravens rank 5^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and just held Nick Chubb to fewer than 5 fantasy points last week – but the Steelers know that with Big Ben at QB, they need to re-commit to running the football if they want to get their season back on track. I’d count on 20+ touches or close to it for Harris.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Waddle had already proven himself as a weekly auto-start in PPR leagues prior to last week, but he posted his best performance of the season on Sunday with a 9-137-1 line on 10 targets. Miami will get DeVante Parker back from IR this week and should play from ahead against the potentially Mike Glennon-led Giants, but Waddle has posted a 22.5% target share in the games Parker has been active for this season and should continue to see the ball come his way. He’s a locked-in WR3.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Chase’s status as an automatic weekly start is getting into the danger zone a bit after his 4^th consecutive game with fewer than 50 yards, one where he saw his lowest target total of the season (3). He also faces a tough matchup with the Chargers, who allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. I’d be inclined to ride with Chase another week despite the recent performances. LA has allowed 4 receivers this season to top 90 receiving yards, and all 4 happened in the last 4 weeks. I don’t envision the Bengals being up this week the way they were against Pittsburgh, so they should throw a good amount more. Chase isn’t going to be limited to 3 targets again.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Mitchell’s broken finger clearly isn’t going to hold him back going forward after he played his highest snap share of the season and posted his best fantasy game in week 12. He did that despite Deebo Samuel continuing to be used out of the backfield and scoring a rushing TD. Samuel is unlikely to play in week 13, so we should expect even more Mitchell this week. Seattle’s run defense is respectable, ranking 11^th in run defense DVOA, but that hasn’t stopped them from being shredded by opposing backs. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game. Mitchell has top-12 potential in week 13 and should be in lineups everywhere.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Williams has now played more snaps than Melvin Gordon in 3 games this season, and 2 of them were the team’s last 2 contests. He seems to finally have a slight edge in this committee backfield and faces a Kansas City defense that ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. If Denver can keep this game from getting out of hand, Williams should see enough rushing volume to return low-end RB2 or flex value. If the Chiefs run away with it (which is possible given the 10-point spread), Williams has been much more involved in the passing game than Gordon, running about twice as many routes as the veteran in the last 2 games. Gordon still hinders Javonte’s ceiling, but not as much as he was a couple weeks ago. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point PPR day for Williams, but he’s got a great shot at finishing as an RB2 this week.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Smith is coming off a dud performance in week 12, but he gets a great opportunity to get right in week 13 against the Jets. New York looks like a middle-of-the-pack WR defense on paper, allowing the 14^th-most WR points per game, but they rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. When teams do throw to their receivers against the Jets, good things happen. The two corners Smith will tangle with on Sunday (Javelin Guidry and Bryce Hall) have each allowed a passer rating right around 120 on throws into their coverage. Volume will be a question mark for Smith, as it has been every week since the Eagles decided to switch to a run-heavy approach, but this is a matchup where just a handful of targets could result in a strong fantasy day. I’d treat Smith as an upside WR3.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): It took a garbage time TD to salvage Freiermuth’s fantasy day in week 12, but garbage time scores count the same as any other. He’s now scored a TD in 4 of the last 5 games and hauled in at least 4 receptions in 6 straight. With Eric Ebron sidelined, Freiermuth played more than 75% of the offensive snaps for just the second time this season, and I’d expect that to continue going forward. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 4^th-most TE points per game. 4 catches and 40+ yards should be automatic, and he’s got a great chance to make it 5 games out of 6 with a TD.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. TB): I won’t fault you if you decide not to stick with Pitts for another week. The last two weeks have been rough if you’ve been starting him, but he does get a favorable matchup this weekend. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th-most TE points per game, including a 17-point day to Jack Doyle last week. The Falcons are 11-point underdogs and will have no choice but to throw this week, and Pitts has seen 5+ targets come his way in all but one game this season. The Bucs allow a 74% completion percentage on throws targeting the tight end. I expect Pitts to bounce back to at least 50-60 yards this week with the possibility for more.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Sitting:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 13: @LAR): Lawrence finally broke through and tallied his first touchdown since Halloween against the Falcons last weekend, and that one score was enough to propel him to a top-10 fantasy finish. He gets a tough matchup with a talented Rams’ defense this week, but it’s a Rams’ defense that has been vulnerable to QBs lately, allowing 15+ points to each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced (a group that includes Davis Mills and Jimmy Garoppolo). The Jaguars are 13-point underdogs in this game, so Lawrence should be throwing a ton, and you saw last week what kind of impact just 30 or 40 rushing yards can make on his fantasy outlook (he ran for 39 yards against Atlanta). There’s plenty of risk and downside for Lawrence here, and he should probably be viewed as a mid-to-low QB2 this week, but I like his chances to finish as the highest scoring rookie QB this week.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): With 4 byes this week, any starting QB is in consideration for a fantasy start in superflex and 2-QB formats, but I’m not a fan of Jones’ outlook in week 13. The rookie has played great ball in recent weeks, but the Patriots’ conservative offense caps his weekly fantasy upside, and he faces the toughest possible matchup this week. The Bills rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and have held 6 of their opponents to fewer than 12 QB fantasy points, and that doesn’t include Big Ben putting up 12.02 against them. The 4 QBs who scored more against Buffalo than Big Ben each scored a rushing TD or ran for more than 60 yards. Jones hasn’t rushed for a TD or run for even 30 yards in any game this season. He has a seriously low floor this week, and I’d be looking for other options in 2-QB formats.

QB Justin Fields, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): It sounds like Justin Fields is going to get the start this week for the Bears after he missed the Thanksgiving game with a rib injury, but it likely won’t be a very welcoming return. The Cardinals have allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game the Bears are likely to be without Allen Robinson again. Fields isn’t going to produce a useful fantasy day without some rushing production, and after some early struggles containing running QBs this season, the Cardinals have put the clamps on over the last couple months. Arizona allowed 20+ rushing yards to 4 of the first 5 QBs they faced but have given up no more than 14 QB rushing yards (to Cam Newton in week 10) in the 6 games since. Fields is no more than a low-end QB2 this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): Buffalo has allowed just 4 running backs all season to score more than 7 fantasy points against them. Two of those backs were Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, who each posted monster games. The other two were Antonio Gibson and Michael Carter, who each scored more than 6 points just from receiving production. More than 80% of Gibson’s points in that game came on 1 long TD reception. Those 4 backs are the only ones to find the end zone against Buffalo in any capacity this season. It’s hard to envision Stevenson making a fantasy impact against that defense while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden. Given Bolden’s role as the receiving back, don’t be surprised if he ends up leading the backfield in fantasy points this week.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Bateman’s playing time took a hit in week 12 with both Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins healthy. He was in a route on only 60% of the Ravens’ dropbacks last week after being at 82% the week before with Brown sidelined. The Steelers are a worse defense than their reputation would have you believe, ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but most of their opponents have needed volume to rack up those points. In their last 7 games, only Darnell Mooney reached 10 fantasy points against the Steelers with fewer than 8 targets. I’d expect closer to 5 or 6 targets for Bateman this week. He’s a viable WR3 option, but I’d prefer someone with a similar floor who has more blow-up potential this week.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Moore posted a fun stat line last week if you started him in PPR formats with 11 receptions, but he turned them into just 51 yards. Colt McCoy was not shy about checking down to the rookie against a defense that entered the game with the 2^nd-most yards after catch allowed this season. This week the Cardinals will get Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back, which likely means a lower target share for Moore, and they face a Bears’ defense that has allowed the 12^th-fewest yards after catch. Even in PPR leagues, it’ll be hard to count on Moore to put up a healthy reception total again if he continues to play fewer than 40% of the offensive snaps, which is likely.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Moore posted his worst fantasy game since before the Jets’ week 6 bye in Zach Wilson’s return to the lineup last Sunday, but with 4 receptions and over 50 scrimmage yards it was still his best fantasy performance in any game that Wilson played from start to finish. Hopefully that bodes well for him going forward. I expect Wilson to keep starting the rest of the way, so Moore needs this connection to get stronger to be useful in fantasy. This week’s matchup is daunting for Moore on paper. The Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game and have allowed just 5 receivers all season to score 10+ fantasy points. 4 of those 5 receivers are in the top-17 in the NFL in fantasy points per game, and 3 of them are in the top-5. Moore isn’t quite on that level, especially with Zach Wilson at QB. I’d be happy with anything more than 50 yards out of Elijah in this one.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Toney’s status for week 13 remains up in the air after he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, but Toney will be hard to rely on this week even if he plays. Daniel Jones is battling a neck injury, so it’s possible that Mike Glennon may end up under center for the Giants. Glennon being under center might not be the worst thing for Kadarius. In Toney’s breakout game against Dallas where he piled up 189 receiving yards, throws from Glennon accounted for 109 of those yards. Toney hasn’t caught for 100+ yards from Daniel Jones in any game this season. The circumstances this week are not the same as they were for that game though. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard missed that game, and Kenny Golladay left it early with injury. The Giants have also changed offensive coordinators since that game. Expecting a repeat of Toney’s one blow-up game here would be playing with fire, even if he’s able to suit up, and even if Glennon starts.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Wilson’s return to the lineup didn’t go as hoped last weekend. He finished outside of the top-24 QBs last week against a defense allowing the 10^th-most QB points per game, and this week gets to face the defense allowing the 18^th-most. The Eagles have been a bit inconsistent on the defensive side, but I’m not willing to bet on Wilson breaking through against them.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Patterson played just 3 offensive snaps on Monday night as Antonio Gibson played his biggest snap share of the season, and extended opportunity for Patterson has been put on hold as the Football Team’s recent wins have put them back in the NFC playoff chase for now.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The likely absence of D’Andre Swift could mean extended playing time for Jefferson against a bad run defense (the Vikings rank 29^th in run defense DVOA), but he played just 5 snaps last week after Swift exited. You’re basically praying for a TD if you play him.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Herbert has averaged 9 snaps, 3 carries and 7 yards per game since David Montgomery returned from IR.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Evans carried the ball a season-high 5 times last Sunday, but all 5 carries came on one drive with the Bengals ahead 41-3. I don’t foresee a similar blowout this weekend against the Chargers.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Rountree was inactive last week for the 3^rd time this season. It’s a weekly guessing game to figure out which back will see snaps behind Austin Ekeler, but none of them offer fantasy value unless they score a TD.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Sermon played zero offensive snaps last Sunday with Elijah Mitchell back on the field.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Collins is playing a starter’s share of snaps, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production. He’s topped 30 receiving yards just twice in 6 games since returning from IR despite playing the 2^nd-most WR snaps on the team in each of those games.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Eskridge saw season-highs in snaps and targets on Monday night, but he’s operating as the WR4 in an offense that has completed just 18 passes per game since Russell Wilson returned from injury in week 10.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Palmer was on the field for a season-high 30 offensive snaps last weekend (42% snap share), but it didn’t lead to a spike in production as he finished with 2 catches and 25 yards. The Chargers were also playing from behind all day, so I wouldn’t expect that playing time bump to continue this week.

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): The return of Curtis Samuel took away even more of the limited snaps that this duo was already playing. Brown was on the field for just 7 plays, and Milne was a healthy scratch on Monday night.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Bates continued to play a large portion of the snaps in Logan Thomas’ first game back from injured reserve, but he ran just 8 routes in a game where Taylor Heinicke dropped back to throw 36 times. He’s back to being primarily a blocker.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): As of Thursday, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard are both not practicing for Philly, and the Eagles face as favorable a running back matchup as the league has to offer with the Jets. The Jets have allowed the most running back points per game by a wide margin this season and have allowed double-digit points to multiple backs in 7 different games. Gainwell has fallen out of favor in Philly’s backfield, but he’ll be forced back into a significant role if Howard and Scott both miss this game, and he costs just $200 more than the minimum on DraftKings for the main slate. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure the others are out before pulling the trigger, but Gainwell could finish as an RB2 this week if both Howard and Scott sit.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 13: @Det.): Nwangwu didn’t play much in college and was an afterthought in fantasy after he was placed on IR to open the season, but since his return he has flashed explosive athleticism on special teams with 2 kick return touchdowns in just 8 chances, and he may have an opportunity to play more on offense in the next couple weeks while Dalvin Cook nurses an injury. Alexander Mattison is going to function as the workhorse back, but Detroit has allowed 14+ RB points to role player running backs Damien Williams, Chris Evans, and Jordan Howard this season. Nwangwu is strictly in play for DFS contests or deep leagues that include return yardage points, but the upside is there for a big day.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 13: Bye): Chuba is sitting this week with the Panthers on bye, but with Christian McCaffrey done for the year Hubbard steps back into the lead role. It’s true that he’s struggled as a pass catcher this season, and that the Panthers’ schedule down the stretch isn’t a favorable one for RBs after a week 14 meeting with the Falcons, but Hubbard has touched the ball at least 15 times in every game McCaffrey’s missed. I expect that to continue down the stretch, and that makes him worth stashing over the bye week in deeper leagues. He could also give you a valuable spot start in week 14 when he faces Atlanta if you’re unfortunate enough to have one of the backs on a bye that week (Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Myles Gaskin).

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The stat lines haven’t been exciting for St. Brown in the last 2 weeks, but he was on the field for nearly all of Detroit’s offensive snaps on Thanksgiving and had more receptions in that game than all but Jamaal Williams. Jared Goff is another week removed from suffering an oblique injury, and the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Amon-Ra lines up in the slot on about 70% of his snaps, and Minnesota slot corner Mackensie Alexander is allowing over 15 yards per completion and a 115 passer rating on throws into his coverage. The ceiling isn’t high in this passing offense, but this is a week where the stars are aligned for ARSB to put up over 60 yards.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Brevin Jordan’s climb up the depth chart in recent weeks appears to be very real after the rookie saw a season-high 60% snap share and was in a route on nearly half of Tyrod Taylor’s dropbacks last Sunday. That playing time boost only turned into 3 targets for the rookie, but he did find the end zone with one of them. This week, the Texans are a 9-point underdog and should be throwing the ball more than they have the last couple weeks. If that happens, Jordan is a sneaky upside play against a Colts’ defense that has allowed double-digit points to a tight end in 5 straight games.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! If you thought surviving last week’s Covid nightmare week was fun, how about we do it all over again? Week 16’s news updates have included an onslaught of positive Covid tests and have left a lot of playoff fantasy rosters scrambling. We already saw last week how rookies like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Fields can be useful fill-ins, and there are certainly going to be more rookies that can help fill gaps in week 16. I’m here to walk you through what to expect from the rookie crop in this crucial fantasy week.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 16…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Harris has posted a couple duds in recent weeks, including an awful game last week against the Titans, but he should be in line for a bounce back game against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-most running back points per game and has given up the 5th-most RB receptions and 3rd-most RB receiving yards. Najee is tied with Austin Ekeler for the 2nd-most RB receptions this season. His workload isn’t going anywhere. Najee is still a top-12 RB play this week despite some recent down games. You have to keep starting him. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 16: @NO): Waddle has hauled in 8 or more receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and the Saints have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. Marshon Lattimore isn’t going to cover Waddle in the slot. Don’t overthink this one. Waddle is a WR2 this weekend. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): You might not be still in the fantasy playoffs if you were relying on Chase last week, but you have to go back to the well again this week if you’re still alive. Chase has too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench. The Ravens lost Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending pec injury a couple weeks ago, and this week will be without Jimmy Smith on the Covid list. The Bengals are going to try to take some deep shots to take advantage, and Chase topped 200 receiving yards against the Ravens when their corners were healthy. You’ll be kicking yourself if he scores 20+ points from your bench. 

Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Starting: 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Fields has finished as a top-10 QB in each of his last 4 full games played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 5-for-5 this week. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest QB rushing yards, but most of the QBs they’ve faced have been statues. They’ve faced only 6 QBs all season with more than 100 rushing yards on the year, and 4 of them ran for more than 20 yards against the Seahawks. Fields will have his usual rushing upside, and he’ll have a chance to throw a bunch as well with the Bears a touchdown underdog. If you’re looking for a streaming QB this week, Fields would be a good option again. 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 16: @LV): Williams continues to split the backfield with Melvin Gordon, but it hasn’t stopped him from coming on strong late in the season. Williams has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 games, 4 of which Melvin Gordon was active for. The Raiders allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, and the running back pool is a little depleted this week with Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook and Elijah Mitchell all likely sidelined. The Broncos are likely to lean on the ground game even more than usual with Drew Lock under center. I’d look at Javonte as a mid-range RB2 with the upside for a lot more. 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Carter split the backfield with Tevin Coleman in his return from IR last week, but I’d expect him to take more of a lead role as he’s another week removed from his injury, and the Jaguars allow the 13th-most RB points per game. The Jets are actually favored for once, so I’d expect them to be able to run the ball a bit more than usual, so a lead back role for Carter probably means 15+ touches against a middling run defense. He’s not an auto-start this week, but he’s a top-24 option at the position this week. 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): This is contingent on Jared Goff getting cleared from the Covid list in time for this game, but ARSB should be a solid WR3 this week if that happens. He may not see another dozen targets if D’Andre Swift is able to get cleared to play, but he’ll still be the top target among the wide receivers against a defense that allows the 3rd-most wide receiver points per game. He’s a safe bet for 8+ targets in a plus matchup no matter who is at QB for the Lions, but if it’s Tim Boyle, I’d view him more as a WR4 than WR3. The Falcons slot corner Richie Grant has allowed a passer rating of 111.6 and 8.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Editor's note: As of Friday morning, Goff is unlikely to start.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Pitts hasn’t set the world on fire in recent weeks, but he’s earned 6+ targets in all but 2 games this season, and the Lions defense ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and is just a middling defense against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position. If you don’t have a top-8 tight end, you’re going to have a hard time finding an option who has a higher yardage floor than Pitts. Pitts is one of the few tight ends once you get past the studs who could give you a strong performance without finding the end zone. 

Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): It’s safe to assume that Jones is going to throw the ball more than 3 times in this go-round with the Bills, but he still is unlikely to be a good fantasy option. Big Ben Roethlisberger scored 12.04 fantasy points against the Bills in week 1. That is still the most fantasy points any QB has scored against the Bills without scoring a rushing touchdown, and Mac hasn’t scored a rushing TD since early last season at Alabama. He also may be playing without Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne this week. Jones should be considered a low-end QB2 for this week. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Damien Harris is practicing in a limited capacity this week, and Stevenson is sitting out of practice with an illness (not Covid-19 as far as we know). I’d expect both to be active this week, but I don’t expect Stevenson to provide a useful fantasy day without finding his way into the end zone. In New England’s first meeting with Buffalo, the Patriots asserted their will in the ground game and Stevenson handled 24 rushing attempts. Rhamondre finished that week as the RB28. I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week in a game where the Patriots are sure to throw the ball more often than the first meeting. 

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): The potential return of Sam Darnold makes Hubbard a better play this week than he was last week, but Matt Rhule announced this week that Cam Newton and Darnold will both play in this game, making it too muddy of a situation to trust Hubbard in the fantasy playoffs. Ameer Abdullah has fully taken over the passing down role in the offense since Christian McCaffrey went down with injury, and Hubbard splits the rushing work with Newton whenever Cam is on the field. Chuba handled 19 touches in the last 2 weeks while Cam rushed the ball 25 times himself. Even if we knew Hubbard was getting all of the rushing work to himself, the Panthers are 11-point underdogs and will be throwing a bunch, and the Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game. Hubbard would be a dicey RB3 option if Darnold was going to be under center all game. With Cam and Darnold splitting the QB job, Hubbard is an even worse play than that. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Smith hasn’t seen more than 6 targets come his way in the last 7 games, and this week is shaping up as a week where the Eagles probably won’t have to throw much. The Giants rank just 28th in run defense DVOA and will be playing with a backup QB. Philly should have no problem running it down their throats. Smith will also likely be shadowed by James Bradberry, who held him to 2 catches and 22 yards on 4 targets in the last meeting between these teams. Smith’s ceiling has been lowered in recent weeks due to Dallas Goedert’s increased receiving usage and the team’s run-heavy approach, and this game has all the makings of being a floor week for Smith. 

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cin.): Bateman was on the field for almost every offensive snap in week 15 with Sammy Watkins sidelined, but Tyler Huntley only had eyes for Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in the passing game, as that duo combined for a nearly 70% target share. I’d expect those targets to be a little more spread out in this one, but Bateman has been held under 40 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. There is upside for Bateman this week - the Ravens are a 3-point underdog, Sammy Watkins is on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Bengals fielding just a middling pass defense, but the floor is low as well. I’d look for a safer option than Bateman in the fantasy playoffs. 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Collins has been much more involved for the Texans in recent weeks, with 20 targets in the last 4 weeks, but this week he faces a Chargers’ defense that allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and he’s topped 30 receiving yards just once in his last 6 games. Collins may see 6+ targets in this game with the Chargers heavily favored, but it’s hard to count on him returning more than WR4 production in this crucial week. 

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): The Chargers placed Jalen Guyton on the Covid list this week, which should open up playing time for Palmer if Guyton can’t get cleared before this game. I still wouldn’t expect a big week for Palmer. The Chargers are nearly double-digit favorites in this game, so they should lean on the run game, even if Austin Ekeler is out, and the Texans are much more susceptible to the run than the pass. They rank 10th in pass defense DVOA. Palmer will still be no better than 3rd in the target pecking order in this game. It would be a pleasant surprise if Palmer tops 50 yards in this game. 

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Freiermuth suffered a concussion in week 15 and might not clear the protocol in time to face the Chiefs. If he does get cleared, this isn’t a slam-dunk start for him. Muth has gotten by on touchdowns. He’s failed to top 50 yards in any game since week 6, but he’s found the end zone 6 times in the last 8 games. Kansas City hasn’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 8. The Steelers could be forced to throw a bunch as a 10-point underdog, but I’d still view Freiermuth as a fringe TE1 play if he’s able to go. I’d be looking for a higher upside option in the fantasy playoffs. Zach Gentry would have a little deep league appeal if Pat is out. 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit: 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): This is a favorable matchup for Wilson against a defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, but he’s still playing without his top 2 wide receivers and hasn’t been a trustworthy fantasy option. Wilson has averaged just 186 passing yards per game since returning from IR and has accounted for more than 1 score in just 3 games all season. The Jets are actually favored to win this game, which may mean even lower passing volume than usual. He’s only worth consideration if you’re desperate for a QB2. 

QB Ian Book, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Book is likely to make his first start this week with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both on the Covid reserve list, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. The Dolphins have given up an average of fewer than 12 QB fantasy points per game during their 6-game winning streak, and the Saints will likely be conservative with the game plan and try to win behind their defense and Alvin Kamara. There is a little bit of Konami code rushing upside to Book’s game. He ran for over 1,000 total rushing yards in his last two seasons at Notre Dame, so he’ll be interesting in showdown contests if the price is right, but there are currently no showdown prices posted on DraftKings for this game. Book is a bottom-of-the-barrel play in season-long leagues. 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Gainwell was an afterthought in the Philly offense last week in a comfortable win against a shorthanded Washington team, with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard handling the backfield work, and I’d expect similar usage this week unless the Eagles pull away and blow the Giants out. Philly is a 10-point favorite, so that’s entirely possible, but it’s not something I’d want to rely on in the playoffs. 

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Herbert did get some extended run in hurry-up mode late on Monday night, catching 3 passes for 34 yards, and the Bears may try to get him more involved with their season essentially over. He’s still averaged just 3 touches per game since David Montgomery returned from IR (no more than 5 touches in any single game). I wouldn’t be seriously considering him anywhere unless we get word that the Bears are going to cut back on Monty’s usage down the stretch. 

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Patterson scored his first NFL touchdown on Tuesday night, but he’s still not seeing a ton of playing time as Antonio Gibson has taken over a bigger share of the backfield workload with JD McKissic sidelined. Gibson has played more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the last 4 games, and Patterson has totaled just 10 touches in the 3 games that McKissic has missed. The Cowboys allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, so Patterson is unlikely to do much damage on only a handful of touches. 

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Felton was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week with the team drastically shorthanded at wide receiver and tight end due to a Covid outbreak, but it led to just 4 targets, 3 catches and 16 yards. Keep an eye on the injury updates, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper to each return this week, which would push Felton back to the bench. He’s a low-upside dart throw if both remain sidelined again. 

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Jefferson already isn’t getting onto the field behind Craig Reynolds and Godwin Igwebuike (9 total snaps in the last two weeks). Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift may both be back this week. A healthy scratch is very possible for Jermar.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): Evans returned from his ankle injury last week but logged just 6 snaps and zero touches. He’s got some work to do to get back into the mix in the Bengals’ backfield. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 16: @Ten.): If you missed the news, Mitchell has been ruled out for Thursday night’s tilt with the Titans. It’ll be Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty and Deebo Samuel manning the 49ers’ backfield again on Thursday. 

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 16: @Min.): Skowronek played his best game of the season on Tuesday night, but it was likely just a blip on the radar for him. He hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets but was on the field for just 21 snaps. You can’t rely on that kind of production repeating itself on that kind of playing time, even against a Minnesota defense that allows the most wide receiver points per game. A repeat of last week’s performance would be a pleasant surprise. 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Rondale has one game of 50+ scrimmage yards in his last 9 contests, and now is battling through an ankle injury that held him out of practice early in the week. There’s no reason to expect a breakout game this week against a Colts’ defense that’s in the top half of the league at limiting WR fantasy points. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Toney has a chance to finally return to action this week, but he’s had a 5-week layoff and will be facing a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest wide receiver points per game. He also may have Jake Fromm at quarterback. I wouldn’t count on him this week. 

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Tyler Lockett has been cleared to return from the Covid reserve list, so Eskridge moves back into a timeshare for the WR3 role with Freddie Swain this week. The rookie had a chance at a big game last week – he was targeted deep downfield 4 times but failed to convert any of them into catches. I wouldn’t expect him to see that kind of opportunity this week with Lockett back, even in a plus matchup against the Bears. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Marshall hasn’t caught a pass since week 6 and hasn’t been targeted more than twice in a game since week 5. Even if the Panthers’ passing game improves with the return of Sam Darnold, you can’t trust Marshall in any lineups. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Schwartz returned last Monday after missing 3 games with a concussion, but he played just 13 snaps and wasn’t targeted despite the Browns being short-handed at wide receiver. It’s possible that his playing time gets ramped up as he gets further away from the injury, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry back this week as well. Steer clear until we see more from Schwartz. 

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Over Washington’s last 5 games, Milne and Brown have combined for 4 targets, 3 receptions, and 9 receiving yards. Don’t even consider it. 

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Fitzpatrick missed week 15 on the Covid list, but even if he returns this week, I wouldn’t expect a substantial role in the offense. AJ Brown could return this week, and Julio Jones came back last weekend. Even if Fitzpatrick gets cleared and AJ Brown can’t play Thursday night, Fitzpatrick will have missed practice all week and likely won’t be part of the game plan. 

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Smith-Marsette managed to score his first touchdown last week, but he did so with both Adam Thielen and Dede Westbrook sidelined. Westbrook was cleared to return from the Covid list Tuesday and Thielen is expected back as well. Ihmir would be lucky to play any offensive snaps this week. 

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (WK. 16: vs. TB): Tremble gets a decent matchup this week against a bottom-10 tight end defense, but he’s reached 25 receiving yards just twice all year and the Panthers’ revolving door at QB this week is going to make it tough for Tremble to have a breakout game. 

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Bates has played more than 60% of the Washington’s offensive snaps in each of the 2 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR and came up a yard short of a touchdown on Tuesday night, but RSJ is the tight end to consider in this offense. Seals-Jones has been targeted 11 times in the last two games. Bates has been targeted 3 times. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be considering Bates this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Mills was the 8th QB selected in this year’s NFL draft, but he’s outperformed most of the QBs selected ahead of him and gets a better matchup this week than you think. The Chargers have allowed 16+ fantasy points to each QB they’ve faced in the last 7 games, a stretch that included matchups with Mike Glennon and Teddy Bridgewater. Davis has averaged 18 fantasy points per game in his last 3 starts. There’s downside, but Mills is a sneaky QB2 option this week for an improving Texans’ offense. 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 16: @NYJ): I know, there’s no way to trust T-Law in your fantasy playoffs after he’s accounted for just 1 touchdown in his last 7 games, but if a breakthrough is ever going to happen this season, it’s probably going to happen this week. The Jets have allowed multiple touchdowns (passing or rushing) to each of the last 10 QBs they’ve faced, and this week they’re likely to be without 6 defensive starters due to Covid-19, including 3 defensive backs. The Jaguars are undoubtedly going to lean on James Robinson in this game, but Lawrence has a real chance to finish as a top-15 QB this week. Of course, there’s risk given Lawrence’s recent performances, but there’s upside as well. 

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Nwangwu looked impressive on limited touches on Monday night, and he could be in line for expanded touches this week after Dalvin Cook tested positive for Covid this week. Alexander Mattison was activated from the Covid reserve list this week, and he’ll undoubtedly be the lead back, but Nwangwu only needs a few touches to have a chance to make an impact with his speed. He’s a sneaky option for DFS contests this week. With Cook being unvaccinated, there is a chance that he doesn’t get cleared for week 17 either, this could be a multi-week role for Kene. 

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Disregard this if Austin Ekeler gets himself cleared from the Covid list, but there could be an opening for Rountree to have a role this week if Ekeler’s out. Rountree has been a healthy scratch in 3 of the last 4 weeks, but Joshua Kelley’s goal line fumble against the Chiefs may have opened the door for him. I’d expect Justin Jackson to function as the lead back (Austin Ekeler himself even said you should pick up Jackson on his weekly Yahoo! Fantasy football show this week), but Rountree could take over short-yardage and goal line situations. Houston ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 6 running back rushing scores in the last 3 weeks. You can’t use Rountree in the fantasy playoffs, but he costs just $200 in showdown contests on DraftKings. 

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Jordan was active last week after battling through a hand injury during the week but didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game with the Chargers. Jordan was targeted 11 times in weeks 13 & 14, and no team allows more points per target to tight ends than the Chargers. Los Angeles has also allowed a league-high 12 tight end scores. Jordan has more upside than usual this week, and has a great chance to finish as a top-15 TE for the week. 

TE Noah Gray, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Travis Kelce and Blake Bell are both currently on the Covid reserve list, which means Gray steps in as the starting tight end this week if neither can get cleared to return, and we know the tight end is an integral part of this offense. Gray obviously wouldn’t be the same focal point that Kelce is, but he’s likely to see a handful of targets come his way. The Steelers are a tough matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, but Gray could make a great bargain basement DFS option this week. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.