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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re about to get into the full swing of the preseason, which means your fantasy draft is probably fast approaching. Today I continue my preseason look at the rookie class. If you missed my QB fact sheet or running back fact sheet, you can find the QBs here, and the RBs here, but today I’m looking at the tight ends. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie tight end class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

 

FACT:

The average TE4 in the past 5 seasons has scored 195.6 PPR points. Only 2 rookie tight ends have ever scored more PPR points than that, most recently Keith Jackson in 1988. Kyle Pitts is being drafted as the TE4 in redraft leagues.

 

What it means:

As you might expect, any rookie tight-end overview might as well just be called the Kyle Pitts article. A lot of these facts are going to focus on Pitts. What this particular stat is telling you is that Pitts will need to post the best rookie TE season of the last 30 years to be worth his ADP. While that’s within his range of outcomes, I’m not sure it’s a bet that I’m willing to make. Maybe if I dig into some of the reasons why he’s so highly regarded I can get a bit more clarity…

 

FACT:

In all the years that Arthur Smith was on the offensive coaching staff for the Titans (since 2012), they’ve never ranked higher than 19^th in the league in pass attempts. In his two years as the offensive coordinator, they ranked 31^st and 30^th.

 

What it means:

A big piece of the argument in Kyle Pitts’ favor for 2021 is that he steps in as the number 2 target in one of the highest passing volume offenses in the league, but will they stay a high-volume passing offense? Atlanta has ranked in the top-10 in passing attempts in the league in 10 of the last 12 seasons, and in the top-5 in 6 of the last 9, but Arthur Smith would prefer if the Falcons’ offense is more balanced in 2021 if his coaching history is any indication. The coaches that Smith cut his teeth under in the NFL had run-heavy offenses, and Smith continued that in his two seasons as the offensive coordinator.

The Falcons don’t have Derrick Henry, and they have a Vegas win total of just 7 games, so they aren’t going to rank 30^th in pass attempts this season like the Titans did in 2020. They’re still likely to throw substantially less often this season. It’s entirely possible they fall out of the top-10 after ranking 4^th in pass attempts last year. Don’t be surprised if they throw the ball fewer times in 17 games this season than they did in 16 games in 2020.  If you’re penciling in the Falcons for 625+ pass attempts, and 120+ targets for Pitts, you’re probably setting those marks too high.

 

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 7 tight ends selected in the top-10 picks in the NFL draft. Only Junior Miller (156.2 PPR points in 1980) scored 100 or more PPR points as a rookie.

 

What it means:

Pitts’ lofty draft capital is another brick people use in building the case for him, but in the last 41 years, only one tight end drafted in the top 10 finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end as a rookie. None of those players were drafted quite as highly as Pitts (4^th overall), but Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis were both picked 6^th, Junior Miller was picked 7^th, and TJ Hockenson was picked 8^th and was the first non-QB offensive player drafted in 2019. While I agree with most folks that Pitts is nearly a lock to finish as a top-10 tight end in 2021, every single tight end drafted in the last 4 decades with similar draft capital to Pitts has underwhelmed as a rookie.

 

FACT:

Since 1990, there have been 34 tight ends drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Only 2 of them (Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen) have more than 3 seasons with 800 or more receiving yards. There have been 8 non-first-round picks with more than three 800-yard seasons in that span.

 

What it means:

This stat looks at Pitts’ draft capital through the dynasty league lens. The true elite producers at tight end have often come from unexpected places. Gronk was drafted in the 2^nd round. Travis Kelce was a third-round pick. Darren Waller was a 6^th-rounder. George Kittle a 5^th, Shannon Sharpe a 7^th, and Antonio Gates an undrafted free agent. The NFL has had a really hard time identifying the true difference-makers at the position for a long time. Pitts is already going as the 25^th overall pick in dynasty start-up leagues. At that price point, you basically need him to have a career like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates or Travis Kelce where he is a perennial top-3 fantasy tight-end to be worth what you’re paying. If his career looks more like Greg Olsen’s or Vernon Davis’, you’re going to regret ponying up for him.

 

FACT:

According to PlayerProfiler, Noah Fant had a higher college dominator rating, an earlier breakout age, and a higher SPARQ-x score than Kyle Pitts

Vernon Davis was better than Pitts in all those areas except breakout age, but Davis also ran a faster 40-yard dash than Pitts.

 

What it means:

Before Pitts landed in Atlanta as the 4^th overall draft pick, it was his size, athleticism, and college production that had people calling him the greatest tight end prospect of all-time, but there’s a case to be made that a player drafted just two years ago was a better athlete and was more productive in college than Pitts…and Vernon Davis in 2006 is probably the most athletic tight end prospect of all-time.

In fairness to Pitts, his overall combination of draft capital, landing spot, athleticism, and college production hasn’t been duplicated in the league’s history. He truly is among the best tight-end prospects to ever come into the league, if he’s not *the* best. Barring injury he’s a virtual lock to finish as a top-10 tight end this season. Just know that if you draft Pitts at his ADP in any format, you’re betting on him posting a historic rookie season. For me, the gap between Pitts and some of the tight ends that have come before him and failed to stand out as rookies isn’t wide enough for me to make that bet.

 

FACT:

In the past 5 seasons, the average TE12 has scored 138.5 PPR points.

Since 2000, only 6 rookie tight ends have scored more than that. Four of them were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL Draft.

 

What it means:

There isn’t a lot of reason to consider any rookie tight ends taken in the 3^rd round or later in redraft unless it’s on the waiver wire after they show you something in-season. Since 2000 there have been 182 tight ends drafted in the 3^rd round or later that at least caught one pass as a rookie, and another 141 undrafted free agents who did. Only 2 of those players scored 138.5 or more PPR points as a rookie. Don’t waste a draft pick thinking you can pick the one-in-150 guy who has a solid rookie season. This approach doesn’t apply to dynasty though. Plenty of quality tight ends have come from after the first two rounds – Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, George Kittle, Antonio Gates, etc. They just didn’t produce as rookies.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 55 tight ends drafted after the 2^nd round of the NFL draft that were 24 years old or older as a rookie (according to Pro-Football-Reference). Three of those 55 tight ends caught for more than 350 receiving yards as a rookie. All three of them – George Kittle, Owen Daniels, and Jimmy Graham - went on to post multiple top-10 fantasy seasons. None of the other 52 posted multiple TE1 seasons.

 

What it means:

We’re talking about Jacob Harris here. Harris is one of the more intriguing day-three tight-end picks in this year’s draft. He’s a converted wide receiver, so he has the receiving skills that fantasy players look for, and he landed in a good situation with a quality QB and a creative coach who has said glowing things about him since the selection…but at 24, Harris is old for a rookie. Like most rookie tight ends, I don’t expect him to be useful in redraft leagues, but he’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues to see how he performs this year. A tight end with first or second-round draft capital, even an older one, is going to get opportunities at some point. As a 3^rd-rounder or later though, those older tight ends need to show something in year one or they probably won’t get much of a shot in later seasons. Dennis Pitta and Brandon Myers are the only TEs since 2000 that fit this category to post even one TE1 season after failing to hit 350 yards as a rookie. If Harris gets to 350+ yards as a rookie, you should be looking to buy or hold into year two. If he fails to get there, you should probably be looking to sell at any moment where an offseason narrative causes his value to spike.

 

FACT:

Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers have drafted 8 tight ends (including Pat Freiermuth this season). Only Matt Spaeth played at least 30% of the offensive snaps as a rookie (He played 40%).

 

What it means:

Pat Freiermuth probably isn’t going to be on the field as much as you’d like him to be this season. He does have the highest draft capital of any tight end drafted in the Tomlin era, but I’d expect his rookie usage to be similar to Spaeth, who was a third-round pick in 2007. Eric Ebron returns after being targeted 91 times in 2020, and while he can make frustrating blunders at times, he’s also finished as a top-15 fantasy tight end in 5 of the last 6 years. If Ebron stays healthy, he’s going to be the team’s TE1 and Freiermuth won’t be much more than a TD dart throw for most of his rookie season. 2021 is the last season of Ebron’s contract, so the path is clear for the rookie from Penn State to be the lead tight end for the Steelers in 2022. You should be looking to trade for him in-season in dynasty leagues if your league-mate who has him gets frustrated with his lack of rookie production.

That’s all I’ve got for the tight end class. Hopefully, it helps give you some clarity on these guys as you head into your drafts.  I’ll be back next week with a look at the wide receivers, but feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if there’s anything written above you want to yell at me about. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally made it back to the NFL regular season, and I’m excited to be back to look at which rookies can lead your teams to the win column each week. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, welcome! Every week I’ll look at the matchups of all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what you should do with them for your lineups. I’ll group the players into 4 categories – Rookies to Start, Borderline Rookies, Rookies to Sit, and Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options. While those category names are pretty straightforward, don’t take them too literally. You should always read the explanation of why I have a player listed in the category he is and apply it to your league rules and roster. If I list Javonte Williams as a rookie to start, and you drafted him as your 4^th running back, you might still have better options and should leave him sidelined. I also may call a QB borderline specifically in 2-QB formats…that doesn’t mean you should consider him over a top-12 option. I just want to supply some useful info so you can make the best decisions for your own starting lineup each week. Before we get into the Week 1 report, I wanted to share my redraft rookie top-12 for the 2021 season:

 

1. RB Najee Harris, PIT
2. RB Javonte Williams, DEN
3. TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
4. WR DeVonta Smith, PHI
5. WR Elijah Moore, NYJ
6. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
7. RB Trey Sermon, SF
8. WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA
9. WR Terrace Marshall Jr, CAR
10. QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX
11. QB Zach Wilson, NYJ
12. QB Justin Fields, CHI

 

Week 1 is always a difficult one to predict for the rookies. Coaches often don’t want to tip their hand as to how they’d like to use their rookies in the preseason, and we wind up trying to read the tea leaves and deciphering the true meaning behind coachspeak to sort things out. Those tea leaves got even harder to read this year with just 3 preseason games instead of 4. That will throw off the normal preseason routines and usage patterns that we’re used to. Even if you think you’ve got a good handle on how a player will be used, you’ll still have to figure out how difficult of a matchup they’re facing. The most objective measure we have for this is how the team fared against the position last year. The only problem with that is these defenses aren’t the same as they were last year. Case in point, the Atlanta Falcons allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers last season than any other defense…but in 2019 they allowed just the 15^th most. Things can change a lot in a year. With all of that in mind, bear with me as I try to sift through what to do with your rookies in week 1.

 

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): If you have Najee on your team, you likely had to select him by the early second round, and you can’t sit him week 1. The Steelers’ offensive line woes have been a hot topic throughout the offseason, but the Bills were just a middling run defense last year and the volume will be there for Najee in week 1. Buffalo ranked 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2020 and allowed the 12^th-most points per game to the position. This probably isn’t going to be a ceiling week for Najee, so he probably isn’t the best DFS target, but he should be a solid RB2 in the opener.

 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): You didn’t draft Kyle Pitts to sit him. If you have him on your team, he should probably be in the starting lineup this week. The Eagles allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game last season, and while they have upgraded the secondary with the addition of Steven Nelson from the Steelers, this is far from an elite unit. The Falcons are likely to use Pitts all over the formation. He’ll face stiff competition when he lines up outside against Darius Slay and Nelson, but he should have a much bigger advantage when he’s lined up in-line against a safety, or in the slot against 5’9” Avonte Maddox. If Pitts is who we think he is, this is a spot where he should smash.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): The Jets’ rookie signal-caller gets a soft landing in his NFL debut facing off with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers played a conservative defense last season that attempts to limit big plays, but they were picked apart underneath. The Jets' new OC Mike LaFleur brings an efficient system with him from San Francisco that could have a field day against that sort of defense. Carolina allowed the 8^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs and ranked 23^rd in pass defense DVOA despite allowing just 6 pass plays of 40+ yards all season. Phil Snow returns as defensive coordinator, so the scheme should be similar in 2021. Carolina’s defense crumbled down the stretch last season, allowing 3+ passing TDs in 5 of their final 8 games, and they’ll need a big impact from first-round rookie Jaycee Horn if they want to shore that up. The Panthers are favored by 4.5 points in this game, so the game script should keep Wilson throwing. He has a very real chance to make a big splash in week 1. He should be considered a solid QB2 option in the opening week.

 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 1: @Hou.): I mentioned that Zach Wilson gets a soft landing in his debut, but the number 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence gets an even softer one. The Texans ranked 29^th in the league in pass defense DVOA in 2020 and traded away their top cornerback Bradley Roby this week. Roby was going to be out due to suspension anyway this weekend, but the Texans were absolutely shredded through the air without him last season, giving up an average of 278 passing yards per game and multiple total TDs to the opposing QB in all 6 games. They even allowed Jake Luton to throw for 304 yards and Brandon Allen to throw for 371 with Roby sidelined. The Texans have revamped their roster over the offseason, but it now looks like one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and the defense should be a rag-tag bunch. My biggest concern for Lawrence is that we may see a lot of handoffs to James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. In addition to being awful against the pass last year, the Texans also allowed the most rushing yards, the highest yards per carry average, and the 2nd-most rushing TDs. Those volume concerns are why I view Lawrence as a lower-end QB2 in his NFL debut.

 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Smith is in line to be the Eagles WR1 in the season opener, and on paper, the matchup looks good. The Falcons allowed more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team last season. They did revamp much of the back end of their defense over the offseason but none of the new additions seem likely to be big difference makers. Fabian Moreau was solid for Washington last season, allowing a passer rating below 80 on passes into his coverage, but that wouldn’t scare me off Smith this week. My bigger concerns are that the two tight ends may be the top two targets in what shapes up as a lower volume passing attack. Smith has a sky-high ceiling in this matchup, but probably shouldn’t be started ahead of any top-24 WRs.

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Chase’s training camp struggles have been discussed ad nauseam throughout the last month, and while I think they’re being overblown it’s enough to worry me for week 1. I don’t think Chase actually thinks the NFL ball is harder to catch because it’s a little bigger and doesn’t have stripes. I do think there is a little rust still from him not playing football last year, but that will shake off quickly once the games start counting. Chase is still slated to start in an offense that had enough passing volume to get 3 different receivers to 100 targets last season even with QB Joe Burrow missing 6 games. He’s going to see volume, and he opens the season against a Vikings team that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game in 2020. The Vikings did bring in Patrick Peterson to help shore up that pass defense, but it remains to be seen how much the 31-year-old corner has left in the tank. He allowed a passer rating of 98.2 on throws into his coverage last season. I’d fade Chase to a small degree early in the season while he works out those training camp kinks, but he has WR2 upside this week.

 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 1: @NE): Waddle enters week 1 with some sneaky upside as Will Fuller finishes serving the last game of his PED suspension. Waddle is listed as a starting receiver for the Dolphins, he plays with a QB that he caught passes from in college, and he faces a Patriots’ defense this week that is missing their #1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England was stingy against receivers in 2020, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but they were just 18^th in pass defense DVOA. Waddle wasn’t a big volume receiver in college. He never topped 45 receptions in a season, but he’s a big-play threat and the Dolphins have emphasized pushing the ball downfield in camp this season. Waddle isn’t an especially safe play this week, but his ceiling looks something like what Marquise Brown did in his NFL debut 2 years ago (4-147-2). A more realistic hope is probably 4-5 catches with one big play sprinkled in. I’d consider him in the WR4 range this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Jones has earned the starting job in New England to open the season, but I wouldn’t be eager to get him into lineups in week 1. I expect the Patriots to play conservatively and lean on the run game, and the Dolphins return 9 out of 11 starters from a defense that allowed the 2^nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the league last year. I don’t expect Mac to have enough passing volume to put up big yardage, and this defense isn’t one that’s likely to give up a lot of TDs. I’d wait on getting Mac into starting lineups.

 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): This may be a moot point to mention with Jimmy Garoppolo officially named as the week 1 starter on Wednesday, but the 49ers tinkered with a 2-QB approach in the preseason and may utilize that to some degree during the regular season. Don’t be surprised if Lance plays a few series while this game is competitive, and since this game has one of the biggest point spreads of the week at 7.5 there may be some garbage time late. It won’t amount to enough opportunity to make Lance a useful week 1 option, and he may even put a dent into Jimmy G’s upside in this inviting matchup.

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Stevenson was one of the league’s breakout performers in the preseason as he piled up 216 yards and 5 touchdowns across 3 games, but he’ll almost certainly open the season playing second fiddle to Damien Harris in this run game. The Dolphins are more vulnerable on the ground than they are through the air, but if you play Stevenson, you’re hoping he steals the goal-line work from Harris and gets into the end zone.

 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Gainwell enters week 1 of the season without his role clearly defined. The expectation is that he’ll mix in on passing downs as that’s an area he’s specialized in and Miles Sanders has had issues catching the football in practice, but it’s possible we see Boston Scott taking some of that work as well. The Falcons did allow the 9^th-most receptions per game to opposing running backs in 2020, but also the 6^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game. I’d wait a week or two to see how this backfield shakes out before trusting Gainwell in lineups.

 

RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 1: @Was.): Don’t be fooled by the news that Austin Ekeler is suddenly questionable for Sunday’s game and think that Rountree has some sneaky upside. If Ekeler sits, the Chargers will likely handle the backfield with a committee approach with Justin Jackson leading the way. Washington allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game a season ago and still boasts one of the best front 7’s in the NFL. Don’t fall for the trap here.

 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): There’s no reason to consider Evans for your lineups or go scoop him off the waiver wire just yet but keep an eye on how the Bengals use him in week 1. The team’s offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said that Evans has “the most natural hands for a running back that I’ve ever been around.” Callahan has been around Gio Bernard, Joe Mixon, Jalen Richard, Doug Martin, and Theo Riddick, among others. Joe Mixon is expected to have a workhorse role, but there is still a chance that Evans is able to carve out a receiving role, so it’s a situation worth monitoring.

 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Moore draws a good matchup for his NFL debut, but it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll get. The Titans allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game last season but reports throughout camp have made it clear that DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green will be the top 2 targets in this offense, and there’s no guarantee Moore is playing ahead of Christian Kirk in Week 1. No team played more 4-wide receiver sets than the Cardinals, and only the Bills even came close, but that still accounted for just 21% of their offensive snaps. If Moore is behind Kirk, he won’t be on the field nearly enough to help you. Monitor his usage in this one, but I wouldn’t put him in the Week 1 lineup.

 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): If you drafted Marshall in your fantasy leagues, you may have circled his week 1 matchup with the Jets as a great opportunity to get him in the lineup. The Jets were the worst team in the NFL last season and ranked 28^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be so quick to trust the rookie. He still enters the season 4^th in the target pecking order behind Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson, and this may be a game where they don’t need to throw it a ton. Despite their defensive woes against the pass, the Jets still only allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game. I’m not sure there will be enough passing volume to go around to make Marshall a useful piece in season-long leagues. He does cost the minimum on DraftKings, however, and may be worth a shot in DFS tournaments.

 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Generally speaking, the Texans are an offense that should be avoided for fantasy purposes, and that’s especially true when you’re talking about players who aren’t even slated to start. Collins has seemingly been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Chris Conley in recent weeks, and the Texans are expected to lean heavily on the running game when they can since they have a plethora of experienced running backs and start Tyrod Taylor at QB. Game script is going to make that hard to do some weeks, but this week against Jacksonville is a game where the Texans may manage to be competitive. The Jaguars are favored by just 3 points. Collins looks like he’ll be the WR3 in a low-volume passing attack in this one. Steer clear.

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk.1: vs. SF): ARSB has been a popular name as a fantasy sleeper this year since the Lions appear to be devoid of much WR talent on the roster, but he’s listed as a 3^rd-stringer on the Lions’ most recent unofficial depth chart. There is an opportunity for a Lions’ WR to step up in the opener – the 49ers were just a middling defense against wide receivers last year and may be missing starting CB Emmanuel Mosley on Sunday, and game script is likely to keep the Lions throwing. I just don’t have any confidence that St. Brown is the guy who steps up in this one. I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie.

 

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Eskridge was a fun player to watch during his time at Western Michigan, but he’s probably got work to do to carve out a role with the Seahawks. In 2020, Seattle wide receivers not named DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett combined for 69 targets all year (nice). That works out to a 4.3 per game split between all the other wide receivers. That’s going to have to be significantly different in the new offense under Shane Waldron for Eskridge to find his way to a meaningful rookie role. Waldron spent the past 3 years as the LA Rams passing game coordinator, and in the past two years, the Rams’ WR3 has averaged just over 75 targets. That would at least be a start for Eskridge, but I’d like to see that play out on the field before I insert the rookie into lineups. The Colts were a middling WR defense last year, not a bad one, so this isn’t the week to take a swing on an unknown.

 

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Atwell was heavily targeted in the preseason, but he managed to turn 29 targets into 18 catches for just 129 yards. His usage made Diontae Johnson look like a downfield threat. I don’t expect Atwell to see a lot of snaps in week one as he’s listed behind both DeSean Jackson and Van Jefferson on the Rams’ depth chart. Even if he does see some time on the field, his preseason usage hints at him only having value in the deepest PPR leagues for now. Keep him parked on the bench this week.

 

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Smith-Marsette could open the season as the Vikings WR3, but that role on this team isn’t one that’s going to result in useful fantasy production, even with Irv Smith out. Last season the Vikings top two tight ends and their WR3 combined for just 110 targets, with only 30 of them going to WR3 Chad Beebe. Even if all that target share was divvied up evenly between Tyler Conklin and Smith-Marsette, we’re still only talking about less than 3.5 targets per game for each guy. Leave Ihmir on the waiver wire unless he starts to produce.

 

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): Freiermuth is likely going to open the season as the TE2 in Pittsburgh behind Eric Ebron, so he should be avoided in fantasy lineups for week 1. If you play DFS and thought Freiermuth had sneaky upside facing a Bills defense that allowed the 6^th-most TE points per game last season, keep in mind that they were missing Matt Milano for 6 games last season, and they were shredded by tight ends in those 6 games. With Milano on the field, only 1 tight end all year reached 10 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring against the Bills.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 1: @NYG): Williams enters week one as part of what appears to be a 1-2 running back punch to start the season for the Broncos. The expectation is that Melvin Gordon will be the 1, and Javonte the 2, but don’t be surprised if that turns out to be reversed. Gordon played in the final preseason game while Javonte was held out despite not being injured. This usually means the team has big plans for a player and wants to make sure they don’t get hurt in a meaningless game. Gordon did miss time earlier in camp with a groin injury, so there’s a chance he was only playing because he hadn’t gotten any live game reps in the first two preseason contests, but Javonte being held out is certainly a good sign for the rookie. The Broncos want to lean on the run game when they can with game-manager Teddy Bridgewater at QB. They ranked 13^th in the league in rushing attempts last season. They face the Giants in week 1. New York allowed the 14^th-most RB points per game last season – not good, not terrible, but they also lost their run-stopping nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. If Javonte is the leader of this committee, I like his chances to see 15+ touches in week 1 and return RB2 value. He costs the minimum on DraftKings and could be a difference-maker if you have the fortitude to get him in the lineup in season-long leagues this week.

 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): Sermon may not have taken the starting job right away like some were predicting, but he still has an opportunity for a nice debut. Raheem Mostert will be the starter, but there may be enough to go around for both players to be productive in this game. The 49ers are one of the heaviest favorites of the week, and the Lions ranked 27^th in run defense DVOA en route to allowing the most RB fantasy points per game in the league. San Francisco hasn’t been shy about their desire to run the ball a lot this season, and the Lions aren’t likely to be the team to prevent them from doing that. Sermon should mix in a fair amount as a change of pace back to Mostert and may see some extra work down the stretch if the 49ers get out in front. A finish in the RB3 range would be a successful debut for the rookie.

 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): With Jamison Crowder still struggling to get himself back from the Covid reserve list, Elijah Moore is in line to start in the slot in week 1, and a big debut could be in the offing. Corey Davis got a lot of attention after he was targeted 10 times in just 13 routes run during the preseason, but Moore is likely to remind us that there’s another pretty good receiver on the Jets on Sunday. The rookie averaged nearly 11 catches per game at Ole Miss last year and will have the most favorable CB matchup in the opener. Davis should have success against heralded rookie Jaycee Horn, but there should be plenty of room for Moore to thrive against a defense that allows a lot of short and intermediate completions. I like Moore to top 75 receiving yards in his debut, and a touchdown would be a nice cherry on top.

 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Look, I don’t like writing Toney’s name here any more than you like reading it here. The Giants reached for him in the first round of the NFL Draft, and he missed time early in camp and didn’t really stand out until recently. Despite that, the Giants pass-catcher situation for week one is still very much in flux. Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Kyle Rudolph all missed time with injury recently, and the Giants don’t want to let Saquon fully loose in the opener either. Engram has been ruled out for week one, and while Golladay and Rudolph are both set to play it remains to be seen how the targets will shake out. This isn’t an easy matchup. The Broncos ranked 11^th in pass defense DVOA last season, and then went out this offseason and added standout cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and rookie Patrick Surtain II. Toney is still a threat to take any touch to the house. If he gets a handful of catches and breaks one for a long TD, he’s going to be a big value at his minimum price tag on DraftKings. Pay attention to any news about how the Giants intend to use their pass catchers in Week 1 if you’re considering using Toney.

 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): Brown gets a big opportunity in week 1 after Curtis Samuel pulled up lame with a hamstring issue at practice Wednesday. Brown should slide into a starting spot opposite Terry McLaurin against the Chargers in the opener. The matchup isn’t an ideal one for him. Brown excelled down the field in his college career at North Carolina, averaging 20+ yards per catch in each of his last two college seasons. While that pairs well with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, it doesn’t pair well with the matchup against Los Angeles. Only 5 teams allowed fewer 20+ yard receptions than the Chargers last season. The Chargers did lose starting corner Casey Hayward in free agency, but they also get Derwin James back for 2021 after the standout safety missed all of last season. There are also plenty of mouths to feed in this offense with McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic and Adam Humphries all around as well. It’s still difficult to completely fade Dyami at his minimum price tag on DraftKings given his big-play potential and his gunslinger QB. If you have the roster space he’s worth a stash in season-long leagues on the chance that he breaks out in week 1. Curtis Samuel was moved to the injured reserve on Friday.

 

That’s all I’ve got for Week 1. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to do a final check before kickoff to be sure you don’t start any inactive players. I’ll be back each week to give you a rookie rundown throughout the season, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the rookies or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was a very eventful one for the rookie crop and was a humbling reminder how hard it can be to predict what to expect in the first game for the fantasy rookies. The two rookies I told you to start last week, Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts, both had the kind of volume you look for from a fantasy starter (17 touches for Harris and 8 targets for Pitts), but neither put up the kind of fantasy performance that you hope for. Both should have better days ahead. All five of the first-round rookie QBs scored more points than Aaron Rodgers in week 1, and Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence each put up over 250 passing yards and multiple scores. 

 

It was a big debut week for all 3 of the top-10 drafted WRs as well, as each topped 60 yards and found the end zone in their respective openers. All 3 were somewhat risky fantasy plays going into the week, but I also talked about the big upside each possessed in this article last week. My three deep-league sleeper WRs for week 1 (Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown, and Kadarius Toney) all managed to somehow put up negative receiving yards on Sunday, but Rondale Moore had a nice debut and Anthony Schwartz was a big surprise for the Browns with Odell Beckham sidelined. 

 

One of the biggest rookie storylines of the week was the San Francisco 49ers backfield. Trey Sermon was long expected to be the number 2 back in the Bay behind Raheem Mostert, but he was a surprising healthy scratch in week 1 and got to watch from the sideline as Elijah Mitchell rattled off over 100 yards and a score against the Lions. With Mostert sidelined for the season, I’ll get into what to do with the 49ers backs going forward later in this article.

 

There are a few rookies that were close to non-factors in week 1 that don’t warrant enough consideration for a full blurb about their week 2 outlook. Those players are: 

 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Played zero offensive snaps in week 1)

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Zero carries, 2 targets in week 1)

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Maybe number 2 back behind Gibson, but played just 4 offensive snaps)

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Saw 2 carries and 1 target in week 1, now in concussion protocol)

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Played just 2 offensive snaps in week 1)

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Targeted just once in 14 offensive snaps week 1)

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Targeted one time in the 4th quarter of a blowout loss)

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Played just 4 offensive snaps in week 1. Clearly lost WR3 battle with KJ Osborn)

 

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 2…

 

Rookies to Start: 

 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Harris’ debut wasn’t quite what fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or second round were hoping for as he totaled fewer than 6 fantasy points against the Bills. On the one hand, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t great and struggled against a talented defense like Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps and handled all the running back touches. That’s the kind of usage you’re looking in a first round fantasy running back. The offensive line should improve with more time playing together, and there will be easier matchups to come, starting as soon as this week with the Raiders. Vegas allowed the 4th-most running back points per game in 2020 and ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In the opener Monday night they let the combination of Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Trenton Cannon put up 98 rushing yards and 2 scores. Najee should be in for a bounce back performance and should be started with confidence.  

 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): If you look only at their final fantasy production, you’d probably think Melvin Gordon is still the clear lead back in Denver after the veteran posted 118 scrimmage yards and a touchdown Sunday while the rookie ended up with 41 scoreless yards. If you only look at that production, you’d miss that it was Javonte who handled 56% of the RB rushing attempts, and two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps. Gordon padded his stats with a 70-yard touchdown run but at worst this is a 50-50 timeshare for Javonte. At best, he’s the current 1-A to Gordon’s 1-B…and this week they get to go face the Jaguars. The Jaguars allowed the third-most RB points per game last season and allowed the 3rd-most RB points in week 1 as they were publicly undressed by what should be a very bad Texans team. The Broncos should be able to have their way with the Jags, and I expect a much better showing from Javonte in this one. I’d view him as a low-end RB2 who’s a better option in formats that aren’t full PPR. 

 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): If you just look at the box score from week 1, you can see that DeVonta Smith had a solid NFL debut. If you look deeper at the numbers, there are even more reasons to be excited about what Smith can do this season. The rookie dominated usage in the Eagles’ passing game. Smith ran a route on 95% of the Eagles dropbacks in week 1, had a 23% target share, and a whopping 55% of the team’s air yards. Despite the talk of how involved the Eagles’ tight ends would be this year, this passing game runs through DeVonta Smith. Smith gets a very favorable week 2 matchup. The 49ers have typically been good against wide receivers over the last couple seasons, but they lost their top corner Jason Verrett for the year last week and may not have Emmanuel Moseley back from injury in time for this game. That leaves them with freshly signed Dre Kirkpatrick and Josh Norman (neither of whom were on a team for training camp), 5th-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir (who held up well in week 1 but faced a Lions’ team that is devoid of WR talent), and Dontae Johnson (who was cut for Josh Norman before being later re-signed). No matter who the matchup, I expect Smith to have a notable advantage. He should be fired up as a WR2 this week. 

 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 2: @TB): I may regret listing Pitts here come Monday, but you simply can’t already be benching this guy after a so-so week 1 performance given what he cost to acquire. This matchup isn’t an exciting one. The Falcons struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright last week against the Eagles, allowing pressure on more than 30% of his dropbacks (the 8th-worst mark in week 1). They should have similar issues with the Bucs in week 2. Philly was 2nd in the league last year in pressure rate as a defense, and the Bucs were 3rd (and returned all 11 starters). That pressure could actually play into Pitts’ hands. His average target depth was just 4.8 yards in the opener, and Ryan may need to find him as an outlet in the short part of the field to beat the pass rush. Pitts did have 8 targets in week 1, tied with Calvin Ridley for the team lead and good for a 24% share. He’s going to be heavily involved. The Bucs are not a dominant defense against tight ends. They allowed the 10th-most points per game to the position a year ago and allowed Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz to combine for 9 catches and 65 yards a week ago. If you drafted Pitts, don’t run away from starting him in this matchup. 

 

Borderline Rookies: 

 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): The Jacksonville Jaguars, as a team, had the most embarrassing performance in the NFL in week 1 by getting housed by a Houston Texans team that is expected to be the worst in the NFL. Somehow Trevor Lawrence still finished the week as a QB1. Playing from behind played into his hands in the opener, as he tallied over 330 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He also threw 3 interceptions, but it was an exciting week, nonetheless. On paper, the Denver Broncos should be a tough matchup. PFF graded their secondary as the best in the NFL entering the season, but they let Daniel Jones throw for over 260 yards and a score against them last week. The Broncos did revamp their secondary in the offseason, so you shouldn’t give too much weight to the fact that they allowed the 10th-most QB points per game a season ago, but there seems to be a defensive issue that has carried over. They struggle to prevent QBs from running the ball, especially near the goal-line. Denver allowed the 5th-most QB rushing yards per game last season, and tied for the most QB rushing scores allowed, and then in week one they let Daniel Jones run for 27 yards and a score. We’re yet to see Trevor Lawrence showcase that part of his game, but he has the capability. He rushed for 766 yards and 17 TDs in his last two seasons at Clemson, and he may get a chance to flash those skills again this week. The Jaguars should be playing from behind and throwing again (they’re a 6-point home underdog), and I like Lawrence’s chances of posting multiple total scores and another top-15 QB finish. 

 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Mitchell was certainly the biggest surprise of week one among the rookies, getting the nod as the 49ers RB2 ahead of the higher drafted Trey Sermon, and then putting on a show when his number was called after Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury. Mitchell handled 19 of the 20 running back rushing attempts after Mostert went down and finished the day with a 104-yard performance that included a scintillating 38-yard touchdown run. It was an impressive debut from a player who wasn’t on very many fantasy radars…but will it carry over to week 2? Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained Trey Sermon’s healthy scratch by saying that he just wasn’t one of their top-3 guys out of camp, but I suspect it had something to do with the fact that Sermon doesn’t play special teams. Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty both do. I expect Sermon to be active in week 2, and it remains to be seen which back will post the better fantasy day. Kyle Shanahan has shown a willingness to ride the hot hand in the backfield, regardless of who has it. Since the start of 2020, 6 different running backs have led the team in rushing attempts, with 5 of them handling two-thirds of the HB rushing attempts at least once. Injuries played some part in the musical chairs in this backfield, but this job isn’t going to just be handed to Mitchell. I expect he’ll get first crack to establish the hot hand in week 2 but faces a Philly defense that allowed the 11th-fewest RB points per game in 2020. He’s also unlikely to be very active in the passing game. Mitchell wasn’t targeted once in week 1 and averaged just 1.24 receptions per game over his last 3 college seasons (no more than 1.6 per game in any individual season). I’d shy away from Mitchell in PPR formats and look at him as a risk/reward RB3 option in half- and non-PPR scoring. 

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 2: @Chi.): The pecking order of the Bengals’ WR group was one of the hottest topics of discussion of the offseason, and for at least week 1 the top option of that group appeared to be the rookie Ja’Marr Chase. Chase led the team in route participation and had the highest percentage of targets per route run. He finished with a 5-101-1 line on 7 targets and clearly still knows how to catch a football even without the white stripes on it. The problem for Chase is that this offense has two other very capable receivers who may have better matchups than he does this week. Chase should do most of his work against 2nd-year pro Jaylon Johnson. Johnson had his struggles as a rookie, allowing nearly 9 yards per target and a 107.5 passer rating into his coverage, but his cohorts in this secondary are worse. Marqui Christian and Kindle Vildor are likely to be overmatched by Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, and I look for Joe Burrow to share a little of the wealth with them this week. Chase has the same kind of upside that he did a week ago, but I’d be a little hesitant to go all-in for this week’s matchup. I view him as a WR3 option for week 2. 

 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Like the other two receivers drafted in the top-10 this year, Waddle’s debut was a rousing success. He managed to get in the end zone and finished as the WR27 for the week with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. Waddle was in a route on 93% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 1, and was targeted on 18% of his routes, but those numbers could both drop with Will Fuller returning from suspension. Waddle spent 75% of his snaps in the slot, but he could leave the field in 2-WR sets with Fuller back. Waddle will match up mostly with Taron Johnson in the slot, who was just an average corner last season, but he allowed just 2 catches on 5 targets into his coverage in week 1 and the Bills allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game in 2020. With slightly reduced usage, I would be less excited to fire up Waddle this week than I am DeVonta or Chase. 

 

Rookies to Sit: 

 

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): I was very tempted to list Jones as a sleeper for week 2 but couldn’t bring myself to do it. I just don’t think the Patriots will have to throw enough to make Jones a viable option even in 2 quarterback leagues. The Jets were an awful defense in 2020, allowing the 3rd-most QB points per game, but have just 3 starters that are carry-overs from last year (Quinnen Williams, Bryce Hall, Marcus Maye). I expect them to play better as a unit under the leadership of Robert Saleh, and in week 1 they limited Sam Darnold to just 1 touchdown and a QB17 finish. I’d expect that to be the high end of Jones’ reasonable range of outcomes for week 2 and wouldn’t consider him other than as a low-end QB2 option. 

 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. NE): Wilson had a shaky debut in week 1, but he still managed to throw for over 250 yards and a pair of TDs en route to finishing as the QB16 for the week. He should face more of an uphill battle in week 2. The Jets’ o-line allowed the highest pressure rate in the league in week one, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, Wilson could be under fire even more often in week 2. He was sacked twice in just 13 snaps after Becton was injured in week 1. The Patriots only sacked Tua twice last week and had just the 20th best pressure rate in the league, but I expect Belichick to have some wrinkles ready for the rookie QB this week. There is a narrative that you shouldn’t start rookie QBs against Belichick, and there’s a reason that narrative exists. There have been 31 rookie QBs to make a start against the Belichick Patriots. 15 of them scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, and only 5 of them made it to 18. The absolute best rookie performance against them in that span was put up by Russell Wilson in 2012. Wilson scored 23.42 fantasy points in that game. That score would’ve been good enough for a finish as the QB12 last week. Again, that’s the BEST rookie QB performance EVER against the Belichick Patriots. Wilson isn’t likely to approach it. 

 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): The 49ers will likely roll into week 2 with the attitude of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ at the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo played well in week 1 and should again be at the helm of the offense, with a few designed packages and plays for Lance. The Eagles’ defense erased Matt Ryan and the Falcons in week 1, but they were just a middling QB defense a year ago. Lance’s upside is a possible TD again, which isn’t useful in fantasy when 15 quarterbacks topped 20 points in week 1. 

 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Unless there is a drastic change between now and Sunday, it’ll be Andy Dalton under center for the Bears against the Bengals. You may see Fields mix-in for a few plays again like he did in week 1, but even if he duplicates his performance, one TD with very little other production isn’t going to do you much good in fantasy. If by some chance the Bears made the move to Fields as the starter this week, he’d have sneaky upside as a QB2 against a Bengals’ defense that ranked just 27th in pass defense DVOA in 2020. 

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Stevenson’s stellar preseason did not carry over into the regular season as his career began with a resounding thud. The rookie back lost a fumble early on and didn’t see the field again as Damien Harris dominated touches. There have been reports that the Patriots could reduce Harris’ role this week after his own late fumble cost the Patriots the game. It remains to be seen whether that could allow Stevenson to work his way back into the mix, or if 2nd-year pro JJ Taylor will get a shot instead. I’d avoid using Stevenson in any lineups until things work themselves out. Even if he does play a bit, he won’t return much value without a TD. 

 

RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): Roundtree appears to be the primary backup to Austin Ekeler in this offense, but it’s unclear if there’s any value there is in that role after Ekeler handled 60% of all the Chargers running back touches in week 1 despite not seeing a single target. Ekeler handled half of the snaps in short down & distance situations with Roundtree seeing the other half. On passing downs, it was Justin Jackson splitting the work with Ekeler. Roundtree is probably going to see anywhere from 5-8 carries and zero targets most weeks. If he doesn’t score a TD he isn’t going to give you much value in your lineup. 

 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Carter did at least see a handful of touches in the opener, but his usage wasn’t encouraging. Carter’s value comes in his ability as a receiver, and Ty Johnson was on the field for 80% of the long down & distance situations for the Jets. Carter did handle the other 20%, but he was only on the field for 25% of the team’s total snaps. Until that number comes up, there’s no reason to consider him in your lineups. 

 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Brown may be the guy who is the most negatively affected by the Ryan Fitzpatrick injury. Brown’s skill set is best utilized on downfield throws, and we’re certainly less likely to see downfield throws from Taylor Heinicke than from FitzMagic. Washington leaned heavily on the running game in the opener. They dialed up a run play on 16 of the 34 plays with Heinicke at QB. I’d look for that to be the strategy going forward. One silver lining is that Terry McLaurin is likely to draw James Bradberry in coverage in week 2. Bradberry’s coverage helped make Courtland Sutton a non-factor in week 1, and he was one of the best coverage corners in the league with a 79.9 coverage grade from PFF in 2020 (7th-best among qualified CBs). If Heinicke shies away from throwing into Bradberry’s coverage, it could mean a few extra looks in Brown’s direction. Unfortunately, I don’t expect them to be the downfield looks that could make him a useful fantasy starter. 

 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Moore did not make the splash I expected him to in his debut, finishing with 1 catch for negative-3 yards on 4 targets, but he had some opportunities, and his peripheral numbers were encouraging. Moore’s average target depth was 23 yards downfield, and he was in a route on 85% of the Jets’ dropbacks. Corey Davis is going to be the volume receiver in this offense, and they’re clearly going to look to Moore to try and stretch the field. I’m not sure how many opportunities he’ll get to do that this week. The Patriots were in the top-10 at limiting WR fantasy points a year ago and allowed the 5th-fewest in week 1, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, the Jets’ o-line might not hold up long enough to let downfield plays develop. Unless the Jets do a better job of getting Moore involved on quick hitting routes, he could have a quiet day again. 

 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Marshall was involved more than I expected in week 1, playing 53% of the offensive snaps and drawing 6 targets against the Jets. Those targets were less than 9 yards downfield on average, and Marshall only pulled in 3 of them for 26 scoreless yards. Teammate Robby Anderson posted more than double the fantasy points on half as many targets. I don’t expect Marshall to consistently out-target Anderson, but I do expect both guys to be fighting for what’s left over after Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore get their touches. This week the Panthers face a New Orleans defense that stifled the Packers’ high-powered offense in week one. I wouldn’t want to take a chance on Marshall or Anderson having a breakthrough as the Saints add Bradley Roby into the secondary mix. 

 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Collins had a quiet debut after getting a bit of camp buzz this summer for the Texans. He did run as the WR2 in terms of playing time but was targeted on just 10% of his routes. Both Brandin Cooks and Chris Conley were targeted at higher rates. There should be more volume for the Texans passing attack in week 2. They won’t be dominating the scoreboard in this game like they did against the Jaguars, but I’m not quite ready to believe that Tyrod Taylor will continue to play at the level he did in week 1. The Browns should make it a long day for a Texans’ team with an implied total of less than 18 points. Brandin Cooks is the only piece of this offense to consider in week 2. 

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 2: @GB): In a game where Jared Goff threw the ball 57 times, St. Brown was targeted on just 6% of his routes. This passing game is clearly going to run through the running backs and TJ Hockenson, and there were no signs in week 1 that ARSB is standing out over his teammates at wide receiver. Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson, and Quintez Cephus were all targeted at a higher rate than Amon-Ra. Week 1 was a strange game for the Lions, with them falling behind by 28 points and rallying back with some back-ups in the game, so things could change in ARSB’s favor. He still shouldn’t be in your week 2 lineup. 

 

WR Mike Strachan, IND (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Strachan was involved a bit in the opener, and there has been a lot of buzz about how much the coaching staff loves him, but he still played only 18 snaps, was targeted just twice in week 1, and draws a matchup against a Rams defense that has been among the best in the NFL at limiting WR points since the start of last year. Hard pass. 

 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 2: @Was.): After a lot of talk about Toney potentially getting extra opportunity in week one due to the injuries the Giants’ pass catchers were dealing with, he played just 5 offensive snaps and turned 2 targets into 2 catches and negative-2 yards. Steer clear of Toney until his playing time improves. It’s too early to write him off, but there is a chance he turns into Tavon Austin all over again. Jason Garrett just isn’t a creative enough play-caller to maximize Toney’s talents.  

 

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Freiermuth had a typical rookie tight end game last week. He played 29 offensive snaps and finished with one catch for 24 yards on one target. Teammate Eric Ebron wasn’t heavily involved either with just 2 targets on 27 snaps. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, were middle of the pack against tight ends last year allowing the 17th most points per game to the position. They limited Mark Andrews to just 3 catches for 20 yards on Monday night. There are better tight end options available than a guy playing half the team snaps in a middling matchup. 

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): It’s unlikely Gainwell got through your waivers unclaimed this week, but if he did, he’s worth scooping up. While he’s clearly behind Miles Sanders in the Eagles’ backfield, he got nearly half of the short down & distance snaps and 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. Those are the places where RBs can make their fantasy money (at the goal-line and catching passes in a hurry-up offense). The 49ers are coming off a week where they allowed the Lions’ running backs to haul in an absurd 16 receptions, and they’re banged up on the defensive side of the ball. Gainwell excels as a receiver out of the backfield and has a great chance to be a useful flex option in PPR leagues this week. 

 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): If you read what I wrote about Elijah Mitchell above, you already know why I have Sermon listed here. For season-long leagues, he’s a guy you can probably acquire on the cheap or possibly scoop off the wire if an impatient manager already dropped him. When he doesn’t have a clear-cut standout RB1, Kyle Shanahan likes to ride the hot hand. I expect Mitchell will be the first man up against the Eagles, but Sermon isn’t going to be a healthy scratch again this week and likely gets a chance if Mitchell struggles. As I mentioned with Mitchell, this isn’t a cake matchup. The Eagles ranked 13th in run defense DVOA last season, so it’s possible no one establishes the hot hand. Sermon is still worth going after as a budget alternative to spending all your free agent budget on Mitchell. There’s a reason the 49ers drafted him in the 3rd round and Mitchell in the 6th.

 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Moore’s playing time in week one wasn’t quite as extensive as you’d hope for as he played 38% of the team’s offensive snaps, but the ball came his way when he was on the field, and he produced with his opportunities. Moore finished with 4 catches for 68 yards on 5 targets, good for 17 yards per catch despite his average target coming less than 5 yards downfield. Teammate Christian Kirk draws a tough matchup in the slot with Mackensie Alexander this week, and the beauty of the Cardinals’ offense is that they play 4 WRs together with regularity and force the opposing defense into a dime package where their secondary depth is exposed. Moore’s opponent for many of his snaps should be 3rd-year corner Kris Boyd, who allowed a 121.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage last season on 39 targets. DeAndre Hopkins should dominate targets again for the Cardinals, but Moore should have an opportunity to build on what he did in his debut. He’s a sneaky WR3 option in PPR leagues this week, and costs just $4,000 in tournaments on DraftKings. 

 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): Schwartz was thrust into a big role unexpectedly in week one with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, and he made a big impression. Baker Mayfield looked his way downfield on several occasions and he posted a nice day with 69 receiving yards. He finished with an average target depth of just over 25 yards. With Odell already ruled out for week 2, Schwartz could do more of the same. His speed is going to be a matchup nightmare for a Texans secondary that allowed Trevor Lawrence to connect on 5 throws of 20+ yards last week. Not one of Houston’s top-3 corners runs faster than a 4.50 40-yard dash. Schwartz is one of the fastest receivers in the league, running a sub-4.30 at his pro day. The Browns are nearly two-touchdown favorites, so if things go according to plan, they may not be throwing a ton in the second half, but Schwartz has a chance to do damage before things get ugly. There is always a bit of boom-or-bust nature with pure deep threats, but Schwartz has a legit chance to boom and costs just $3,300 on DraftKings. 

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now a third of the way through the NFL season, and by now you have an idea if your team is a contender or has some work to do to get back in the hunt. Week 7 could be a crucial one for fantasy leagues. We’ve seen weeks with 6 teams on a bye before, but all the high-end fantasy players sitting in week 7 have had many in the fantasy community dubbing this week the ‘bye-pocalypse’, ‘bye-nado’, ‘bye-mageddon’, ‘bye-palooza’, and maybe my personal favorite, ‘bye-gnarok.’ Finding a way to navigate all the byes and field a lineup that can still compete and win this week is a challenge, but a win this week will feel extra rewarding. There are plenty of rookies who can help you shore up your incomplete lineups. Pretty much anyone with a pulse is in play this week, so some of the borderline and sleeper options may be deeper names than you’re used to seeing there. You may need a shower after you set your lineup this week, but hopefully some of my words can make you feel less gross about starting some of these guys.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 7…

 

Rookies to Start:

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Hubbard has been functioning as the Panthers’ lead back for 4 games now, and he’s topped 65 scrimmage yards and touched the ball at least 14 times in all of them, and head coach Matt Rhule came out this week and said the Panthers need to run the ball more. Hubbard hasn’t been great in the passing game and has been ceding 3^rd down snaps to Royce Freeman, but that hasn’t been a problem for his fantasy performances. He’s handled 53 of the team’s 60 RB rushing attempts in the 3 games McCaffrey has missed. As long as game scripts are at least neutral, Hubbard should get plenty of volume. The Panthers’ next 3 opponents are the Giants, Falcons and Patriots, none of whom have more than 2 wins. This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 27^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Hubbard is a top-15 RB option this week in this plus matchup.

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): In case you aren’t already treating him as such, Chase has officially ascended to must-start territory. Through 6 games, he’s topped 75 receiving yards and/or scored a touchdown in every game this season. The Ravens allow the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA, but you should be starting Chase regardless of matchups. There’s bound to be a down week or two at some point, but he has 20-point upside each and every week.

 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Waddle has now played in two full games with Tua Tagovailoa as his starting QB. He’s seen a 24.3% target share in those games and topped 16 PPR points in each. It’s true that most of those targets came last Sunday with DeVante Parker sidelined, but the Dolphins’ tight ends were targeted 15 times in that game as well. Assuming he plays, I’d expect most of Parker’s workload this week to come from Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe. The Falcons allow the 8^th-most WR points per game, and Waddle is clearly going to see targets. He’s a high-floor WR3 in PPR leagues this week.

 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pitts had the breakout game we were all waiting for in London heading into Atlanta’s bye week, but will he continue to produce at a high level with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage returning this week? That remains to be seen, but you have to get him into the lineup anyway. The rookie has seen 6 or more targets in 4 of his 5 games this season and gets to face a Miami defense that is allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game. It isn’t a cake matchup, but it isn’t a tough one either. Pitts should be a top-10 TE play this week.

 

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): My listing of Jones as a borderline rookie applies only to 2-QB and superflex leagues. You shouldn’t be considering him in any 1-QB formats. The Jets have allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t played many high-powered offenses, and teams have scored on the ground rather than through the air against them. They’ve allowed 7 rushing TDs, and just 4 through the air. The Jets have forced just 1 QB turnover through 5 games and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA. They’re the only team Mac Jones failed to throw a TD against so far, and I’d expect him to correct that this week. Don’t expect a high-volume effort from Mac, but he’s probably going to finish the week as a mid-range QB2.

 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Week 5 seemingly put to rest any debates about what the 49ers backfield split is going to look like going forward. Mitchell has a stranglehold on the early down work (he handled 75% of the non-Trey Lance rushing attempts against Arizona), and Kyle Juszczyk will mix in on passing downs and play some traditional fullback. Trey Sermon was on the field for just 2 offensive snaps in week 5. The Colts aren’t an easy team to run against, ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA, but the 49ers are going to run the football, and with Jimmy G back under center, the bulk of those attempts will likely go to Mitchell. He’s a better play in non-PPR formats, but his expected volume in the bye-palooza week makes him a solid RB3 option against the Colts.

 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 7: @Cle.): Williams continues to make at least one “Wow” play seemingly every week, but it still hasn’t pushed him ahead of Melvin Gordon on the depth chart. The rookie has been making the most of his opportunities, averaging nearly 70 scrimmage yards per game in his last 4 outings with at least 3 receptions each week, and the Broncos have a chance to control the game script this week with the Browns starting most of their second-string offense. Despite that situation, I’d pump the brakes before getting too excited about Javonte. The Browns rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, and Williams is still splitting the backfield with Melvin Gordon. He’s a reasonable fill-in if you’re fighting through byes, but I would treat him as an RB3 option with limited upside in what should be an ugly game. This game has the lowest over/under total of the week.

 

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): Herbert worked wonders for fantasy managers who rolled him out in starting lineups last week, finishing with 112 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but you may be playing with fire if you decide to get him in your lineup again this week. I originally expected Damien Williams to return this week, but it turns out that he’s unvaccinated and probably going to miss another game on the Covid list. Tampa Bay has allowed just 2 running backs to reach 50 yards on the ground against them all year, and none to reach 70, so Herbert is unlikely to pile up a big rushing yardage day. They’ve also allowed just 1 RB rushing score for the season. If you start Herbert, you’re counting on him getting some receiving work, which Dame’s absence opens the door for. The Bucs do allow 7.5 running back receptions per game. Herbert didn’t see much receiving work in college and saw just an 11% target share as the lead back last week, but he was in a route on 80% of the Bears’ pass plays. The bye-palooza, and Williams’ expected absence make Herbert an upside RB3 this week. If you’re deciding between Herbert and Javonte Williams, Javonte probably has a safer floor, but Herbert has a higher ceiling.

 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 7:  @NE): This is probably not a game you want to target for fantasy, but Carter has handled 55% of the Jets’ RB touches over the last 4 games, and his best game of the season so far came against these Patriots in week 2, where he totaled 88 scrimmage yards on 13 touches. Don’t get carried away here. The Patriots rank 9^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game, so the matchup isn’t great, but Carter is in play with so many byes across the league this week. He’s a low-end RB3 option in Foxboro.

 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Smith was a big letdown last week in a potential blow-up spot against Tampa Bay, and there’s no guarantee he bounces back in this one. I do expect his volume to get back to the level we’ve grown accustomed to – week 6 was the first time all season that Smith was targeted fewer than 6 times – but this matchup isn’t an easy one. The Raiders have allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, and Smith will spend a lot of his day squaring off with Casey Hayward. Hayward has proven to be one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, allowing just 3.2 yards per target and a 51.3 passer rating on throws into his coverage. He also boasts Pro Football Focus’ highest coverage grade among all cornerbacks this season. Smith is still in play as a WR3/4 option, especially with all the byes this week. He won’t be matched up with Hayward on every play. Just keep in mind that his floor isn’t all that safe this week.

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 7: @LAR): The ‘Sun God’ posted his worst fantasy performance of October last Sunday, but it was the 3^rd consecutive week where he’s seen at least 7 targets and hauled in 5+ receptions. His passing game role has been consistent, and should be again, even in this tough matchup. The Rams rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 15^th-most WR points per game. Garbage time has helped teams put up passing points against them, and it’s hard to imagine the Lions not having a lot of garbage time. The Rams are favored by 15 points in this one. St. Brown may spend some time matched up with Jalen Ramsey, but I wouldn’t let that scare me away from him if you’re considering starting him. I’d view ARSB as a floor play WR4 in PPR leagues.

 

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Cin.): Bateman made his return from IR last week, and immediately stepped into a 22% target share in his first game back. I wouldn’t expect that to hold every week, but I expect him to carve out a role as one of the top-3 pass catchers on this team with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. Cincinnati isn’t an easy WR matchup. The Bengals allow the 12^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but both of those marks are worse than the Charger defense he faced last week. I’d look for another 5-7 targets for Bateman this week and think he’s an upside WR4 option if you’re hurting for WR help.

 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Wilson has had two weeks to shake off his miserable day in London against the Falcons, but you can’t look to him as an option this week even in 2-QB leagues. I’d love to see the BYU product post a bounce back game in Foxboro, but he threw 4 interceptions the last time he faced the Patriots and has been picked at least once in all 5 of his starts. I’d be more inclined to start Case Keenum tonight if I was desperate in a 2-QB league rather than roll Wilson out in any lineups.

 

QB Davis Mills, ARI (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Mills has started 4 games so far this season. One of them was a magical performance against the New England Patriots where he topped 300 yards and threw 3 TDs on his way to nearly 25 fantasy points. In the other three he’s averaged just over 6 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, and the Texans have a pathetic implied total of just 14.5 points. Anything over 10 fantasy points should be seen as a win for Mills in this one.

 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): If you were thinking of starting Lance this week, you probably won’t get the chance. Trey is expected to be out this week dealing with an injury suffered against the Cardinals in week 5. Expect Jimmy Garoppolo to get the start.

 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Gainwell has some upside against a Vegas defense that has allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game, but I don’t see how you can roll him out in lineups this week after he saw just 28 snaps, 2 carries, and 5 targets in the last 2 weeks combined. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen said this week that they need to get Miles Sanders more involved in the offense. That comment isn’t reassuring if you were hoping Gainwell’s usage would tick back up this week. I’d keep him parked on the bench, even in the bye-pocalypse.

 

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Browns have officially ruled out Nick Chubb for Thursday night’s game against the Broncos, and have placed Kareem Hunt on IR, so it’ll be Felton and D’Ernest Johnson left to man the Browns’ backfield this week. If you’re looking for a Browns’ running back as a fill-in for a player on a bye, D’Ernest is the one you want. Felton has played more snaps than Johnson this season, but he’s spent just 2 of them lined up in the backfield, and 31 of them lined up in the slot or out wide. Johnson, on the other hand, has spent all of his snaps in the backfield, and handled the running back snaps after Hunt went down last weekend. Denver looks like a daunting run defense on paper, allowing the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but they’ve allowed over 50 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to 4 different backs in the last 3 games. The bulk of that damage has come on the ground, and D’Ernest figures to see the bulk of the rushing work, with Felton likely handling passing downs. The Broncos allow the fewest RB receptions, and 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards per game. Felton is only worth considering if you’re very desperate in a full PPR league.

 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Don’t Chase last week’s points with Evans. The rookie had his best game as a pro and doubled his total snap count for the season, but most of those snaps and 5 of his 7 touches came with the Bengals leading by 17+ points. He did manage to find the end zone on his first touch of the game, and his increased opportunity is undoubtedly a good sign, but this is still Joe Mixon’s backfield. The Bengals are highly unlikely to post another blowout this week against the Ravens. If Evans continues to see an increased workload on passing downs, there is a sliver of hope for him. The Ravens allow the 2^nd most RB receiving yards per game. I wouldn’t count on more than 3 receptions or so for the rookie though.

 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Sermon has been on the field for three snaps in the games this season that Elijah Mitchell has been active for. While I expect him to play at least a little more than that going forward, he’s not seeing the field enough for consideration in your fantasy lineups, even in a week like this.

 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Moore played his highest snap share of the season in week 6, but he continued to show that he’s going to be a boom-or-bust option from week to week. He’s averaged 93 scrimmage yards in his three ‘boom’ games, and 22 per game in his 3 ‘bust’ performances. Pretty much every offensive weapon on the Cardinals is capable of a boom game against the hapless Texans, as Arizona is an 18.5-point favorite with a 33-point implied total, but I would still bet against a big game from Moore. The Cardinals have been creative in getting Rondale involved, giving him 8 rushing attempts in the last 3 weeks, but the ways the Cards deploy him are less likely to lead to big things this week. 85% of Rondale’s targets in the passing game have been 9 yards or fewer downfield, and more than half of them have been behind the line of scrimmage. The Texans have allowed the 5^th-fewest yards after the catch in the league. Rondale has long odds of posting a big yardage day on the type of targets he’s been seeing. He’s a volatile WR4 option in deeper leagues this week.

 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): As of now, I’m operating under the assumption that Toney isn’t going to play against the Panthers. He played last week despite a ‘questionable’ tag and didn’t make it through the first quarter before being ruled out for the day. The Giants would be wise to give him the week off and hope he’s able to come back at full strength in week 8. If he does suit up this week, he’s in play as an upside WR4 option against a Panther defense that allows 10^th-fewest WR points per game.

 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Moore is going to post a big game eventually, but to-date he’s only reached 25 or more receiving yards one time. That one time was against these Patriots in week 2, but he finished with just 4 catches for 47 yards on 8 targets in that game, hardly a useful fantasy line. Moore missed week 4 with a concussion before returning for the London game in week 5, and he saw just 2 targets in that game with Jamison Crowder back in the mix. It was the first time Moore and Crowder both played in the same game. I’m going to need to see him be more active than that with Crowder around before I consider Elijah for lineups again.

 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Collins was back in action last weekend after being activated from injured reserve, and he actually posted a respectable game with 4 catches and 44 yards on 6 targets. Collins shared playing time with Chris Moore and Chris Conley behind Brandin Cooks. I wouldn’t look to get him into lineups, but he’s worth monitoring to see if those targets continue going forward. He could even be a sneaky dart throw this week for limited slate DFS tournaments. The Cardinals have a solid pass defense that ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 11^th-most WR points per game thanks to a lot of garbage time against them. Arizona has allowed 3 WRs to score 16+ fantasy points against them this year – KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. It hasn’t been the primary receivers who have put up the biggest days against the Cardinals.   

 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Brown had his biggest opportunity to make an impact of the season so far against the Chiefs last week and failed to do so. Kansas City has been bleeding big plays in the passing game, but Taylor Heinicke’s deep throws to Dyami continued to not connect. Dyami saw 6 targets in the game that totaled 80 air yards. The three that he caught accounted for 21 of those air yards. The 3 that he didn’t catch accounted for 59. This week’s opponent, the Packers, have allowed the 3^rd-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season. Don’t look for Brown to get on track this week. The absence of Jaire Alexander may even hurt Brown, as it means Terry McLaurin will have a more favorable matchup.

 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): I was tempted to list Schwartz as a sleeper this week with Odell Beckham Jr. potentially sidelined, but the return of Jarvis Landry likely saps any sneaky upside the rookie had in this one. Schwartz was used as a downfield threat in week 1 when Beckham was out, and Denver has allowed the 2^nd-most 40+ yard completions in the league so far. With Landry active, Schwartz is nothing more than a dart throw in showdown DFS tournaments.

 

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Marshall exited last week’s game against the Vikings after suffering a concussion, and his status for week 7 remains up in the air. Even if he’s able to return this week, he’s garnered more than 3 targets just once in the last 5 games. If Marshall is out, fellow rookie Shi Smith is likely to step into the WR3 role. The Giants aren’t an imposing defense, allowing the 12^th-most WR points per game, but Smith would be unlikely to see any more volume than Marshall had been seeing. Both are best left out of lineups.

 

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Tremble’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, as his snap share increased to a season-high 51% in week 6, but targets and fantasy production haven’t followed with it. Tremble has been targeted just 7 total times in the three games since Dan Arnold was traded to Jacksonville. That limited volume isn’t worth chasing this week. The Giants are a decent matchup for tight ends, allowing the 12^th-most points per game to the position, but Tremble is unlikely to take advantage.

 

TE Jack Stoll, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Chances are you aren’t familiar with the name Jack Stoll, but after Zach Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this week, the undrafted rookie is the only tight end on the Eagles’ roster beyond Dallas Goedert. In the season’s first 6 weeks, Philly lined up with multiple tight ends on the field on 27% of their plays, so Stoll may see an increased role moving forward, but it won’t be a fantasy relevant role. His spot as the TE2 on the depth chart could be short lived. The Eagles have signed Richard Rodgers to their practice squad and opened the practice window for Tyree Jackson this week to potentially return from injured reserve. There’s no reason to give any consideration to Stoll at this point, even in the deepest of leagues.

 

Rookies on bye in week 7: QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX, RB Najee Harris, PIT, RB Larry Rountree III, LAC, WR Josh Palmer, LAC, TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): If the Bears want to have success against the Bucs, they’re going to have to ask Justin Fields to throw the ball more. They’re not going to find much success running the ball against them, and the Bucs have allowed 275+ passing yards in 5 of their first 6 games. Fields hasn’t attempted 30 passes in a game yet and has been abysmal for fantasy purposes, but this game figures to be his highest volume passing day yet and we finally saw him start to use his legs last week and add points with rushing yards. The Bucs have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. You shouldn’t be scared to put Fields in as your QB2 this week in superflex leagues if your options are limited.

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Stevenson seems to have gotten himself out of the Belichick doghouse and finds himself in a favorable spot this week. The Patriots are a touchdown favorite over a Jets team that allows the 2^nd-most RB points per game. Damien Harris is going to lead the way in this backfield, but Stevenson should see a fair number of opportunities as well. It was a pleasant surprise to see Rhamondre running downfield receiving routes in Dallas last weekend, and if receiving usage continues, he’s going to have some unexpected upside. The rookie wouldn’t be my first choice as a starter this week, but he’s not a terrible option if you’re desperate.

 

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a shin injury all season without missing a game, but he does seem to be in real jeopardy of missing this week’s tilt with the Packers after aggravating it last weekend. If Gibson is out, Patterson will have a chance at a significant role sharing the backfield with JD McKissic. McKissic is best utilized as a satellite receiving back, and that could leave a lot of the early down rushing work to Patterson. We saw what Khalil Herbert did last weekend to this Green Bay defense that ranks 30^th in run defense DVOA. I don’t expect Patterson to have that kind of game, but 50+ yards isn’t out of the question if Gibson sits. I’d view him as more of a desperation play than anything, but this week there are some desperate fantasy managers.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.