Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

It's playoff time in fantasy football land. Hopefully you've made it this far, and the lucky ones out there are sitting pretty with a bye in the first round. For the rest of us, it's win or go home! Make sure you also check out our waiver pickups and our week 13 injury wrap-up.

If you're in a two QB league, Kirk Cousins is a streaming/bench option that might be worth checking out this week. He does travel to Chicago, but the Bears have been weak this year and DeSean Jackson is demanding the ball and should put up a big game.

Matt Stafford is just what the Rams defense needs to get back on the right track. Keep Stafford on your bench in two QB leagues, as he's struggled all year long and goes back on the road after he couldn't keep up the magic from Thanksgiving.

Ryan Mathews is expected back this week, and after seeing DeMarco Murray get only 8 carries last week, Mathews is a guy that could reach RB2 numbers this week. Keep an eye on the injury report later in the week and throw Mathews into your flex if you need a fill in.

Keep an eye on C.J. Anderson's injury status, but even if he goes, I'd recommend sitting him. Anderson has been inconsistent, and the Broncos are not afraid to just lean on one of the guys on any given week. This week, that guy is more likely to be Ronnie Hillman.

Tavon Austin is a decent flex play this week, as the Rams get a chance to get healthy against the Lions. Austin is a gadgety guy, and that's exactly what can spark the Rams offense. I predict that Austin will have two TD's this week.

Golden Tate is a guy who people may still be holding on to hope for, but this week he's our #48 WR. Keep him on your bench - the Lions are who we thought they were.

The time for drafting and sleepers and value picks and auctions have all past, it's now time for real football to be played! Week 1 starts on Thursday night with the matchup between the Panthers and Broncos in the mile-high city. Make sure you also check out our podcast where Dave and Jason break down all the Week 1 matchups.

Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/6/16: Week 1 Preview

As far as this week's rankings go, it's Week 1, so it's probably going to be the biggest crapshoot of the year. You are likely going to have very few decisions to make on Sunday - this is a good thing. Go with the guys you drafted high and be patient. If you are interested in a few guys we're high on, look for Kirk Cousins to do well against Pittsburg, Danny Woodhead to get some nice garbage points in KC and Larry Fitzgerald to shine on a team that is 3-deep at wideout.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck (IND, QB)

Week 3 vs. SD – 24/37, 331yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 14.24pts

Week 4 @JAX – 27/42, 234yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 18.66pts

Week 5 vs. CHI – 28/39, 322yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 22.18pts

After a huge fantasy performance in week 1 against the Detroit Lions where he put up 35.5 points, Luck and the Colts offense in general has been having issues, starting with the offensive line play which has Luck currently on track for 60+ sacks this season. Still, there’s something to be said for playing from behind and Luck is always capable of a good performance. How will he fare this week in Houston – can he put up at least 18 points to stay afloat as a weekly starter?

Kirk Cousins (WAS, QB)

Week 3 @NYG – 21/35, 296yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 19.34pts

Week 4 vs. CLE – 21/27, 183yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 18.32pts

Week 5 @BAL – 29/41, 260yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 13.30pts

Cousins was ranked pretty highly overall by most experts this preseason, but his recent performance has most of us sliding him to the bench in favor of other upside QBs. Week 6 does not bring Cousins any favors, statistically, as he’ll be going up against the Eagles’ #2 ranked passing defense, allowing only 194yds per game on average and only 3 total passing touchdowns so far this season. Can Cousins buck the trend, scoring at least 17 points in a standard scoring league?

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, RB)

Week 3 vs. CHI - 30/140yds, 0 TD, 2rec, 20yds, 0 TD, 16.00pts

Week 4 @SF – 23/138yds, 1 TD, 1rec, 19yds, 0 TD, 21.70pts

Week 5 vs. CIN – 15/134yds, 2 TD, 3rec, 37yds, 0 TD, 29.10pts

Elliott has actually been trending up from his very first NFL game this year. Each week he has performed better than the last. It doesn’t look like he’ll be very involved in the passing game at all (for now, at least), but that doesn’t really impact his fantasy value. The Cowboys are full-speed ahead now, even with a rookie under center. Is it possible for Elliott to keep it going and bring owners at least 22 points on his first trip to Lambeau field to face the Packers?

Duke Johnson Jr. (CLE, RB)

Week 3 @MIA – 10/69yds, 0 TD, 5rec, 12yds, 0 TD, 8.10pts

Week 4 @WAS – 8/45yds, 0 TD, 6rec, 31yds, 0 TD, 5.60pts

Week 5 vs. NE – 4/1yd, 0 TD, 2rec, 21yds, 0 TD, 2.20pts

The Browns are a disaster this year, and although Johnson was drafted as the more valuable running back before the season started, Isaiah Crowell has taken the mantle thus far. Although one could argue that Johnson has some PPR value, he has not shown up as a productive fantasy player so far this year in standard leagues. Will he continue to fall off of benches everywhere? Will Johnson score less than 5.3 points this week against the Titans?

Wide Receivers

Cameron Meredith (CHI, WR)

Week 3 @DAL – 2/3, 24yds, 0 TD, 0.40pts

Week 4 vs. DET – 4/5, 28yds, 0 TD, 2.80pts

Week 5 @IND – 9/12, 130yds, 1 TD, 17.60pts

Welcome to the NFL, Cameron. Sorry you’re on the Bears! Regardless of his situation, though, it looks like Hoyer and Meredith are enjoying some great chemistry and – due to Cutler’s fall from grace and White’s serious injury – both will probably be starting for the foreseeable future. The real question here is if Meredith can keep up the production on a high level in the weeks to come. Let’s put the number at 8 points or more to continue this trend. Yay, or nay?

Victor Cruz (NYG, WR)

Week 3 vs. WAS – 3/3, 70yds, 0TD, 7.00pts

Week 4 @MIN – 5/9, 50yds, 5.00pts

Week 5 @GB – 0/2, 0yds, 0.00pts

Over the last 4 games, Cruz has had at least 50 yards or a touchdown. At the beginning of the season things looked super promising for a resurgence to Cruz’s career and for the Giants’ offense in general – but things aren’t looking quite so bright now. Will the Giants regain control of their offensive play and utilize Cruz in week 6 in Baltimore? Will Cruz score less than 4 points, continuing the downward trend?

Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett (NE, TE)

Week 3 vs. HOU – 2/3, 10yds, 0 TD, 1.60pts

Week 4 vs. BUF – 5/6, 109yds, 0 TD, 10.90pts

Week 5 @CLE – 6/8, 67yds, 3 TD, 24.70pts

Bennett’s first outing with Tom Brady as quarterback was fruitful, to say the least. Even though Gronkowski was back in action and looking healthier than he has so far this season, Bennett was the primary red zone target for most of the game, scoring 3 touchdowns against the hapless Cleveland Browns. In order to keep up this trend, Bennett will need to put up 12 or more points in a standard scoring league. Can he pull it off?

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

158.3 Passer Rating

The NFL’s all-time leader in passer rating, Aaron Rodgers (with 103.2 for his career) finally posted his very first game with a perfect passer rating on Sunday. Rodgers went 25/31 for 429 yards and 5 TDs, adding another TD on the ground in perhaps the best game of his career. This was good for 43.76 fantasy points, which is 10 more than the next closest player this week. Perhaps Rodgers has finally figured out the new system that has been implemented in Green Bay this year. While they have done fantastic in the win-loss column, they definitely have not looked like the juggernaut offense that we all expected from a team led by Aaron Rodgers, until this week. This game was domination from start to finish, with Rodgers throwing for a TD in every quarter, and also spreading the love. All 5 TDs went to 5 different players. Honorable mention goes to Marquez Valdes-Scanting, who averaged 66.5 yards per reception (2 catches for 133 yards and 1 TD).

576 Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson, after fooling us all with only 6 rushing yards in Week 1, just posted his third game out of the last 6 where we went over 100 rushing yards. This is a historic pace and projects to 1,316 yards over 16 games. If Jackson can keep this up, he will crush the single-season record by Mike Vick, which is 1,039 yards back in 2006. Jackson also continued his fantasy dominance, leading the league with 180.6 total fantasy points in 7 games. When you consider that he has not thrown for a TD in the last two games, this is just amazing. Not bad for a guy who was drafted 106^th overall on average (QB14). He’s the kind of player that allows for league dominance when you can find that kind of value. To further put Jackson’s rushing dominance in perspective, he’s on pace to break Vick’s career total of 6,109 rushing yards in only 111 games, versus Vick’s career 143 games. That’s two full seasons worth of games.

9% of Yahoo Leagues

This week’s leading RB scorer was Chase Edmonds, who was started in only 9% of Yahoo leagues on Sunday. Currently, he’s owned in 48% of leagues, which includes a 14% jump from yesterday. To me, this means that 14% of Yahoo leagues probably do not operate with a waiver system, which is bizarre to me, but I digress. Edmonds was able to dominate the Giants non-existent rushing defense, scoring 3 TDs all from at least 20 yards or more. Edmonds will definitely be the #1 waiver wire pickup this week, and deservedly so. It looks like David Johnson might wind up sitting a week or two, considering he spent almost all of Week 7 on the sideline and the Cardinals were able to win with only 104 passing yards. Edmonds’ 33 points basically doubled up the rest of his entire team combined, which was led by Kyler Murray’s whopping 6.96 points. On a side note, Murray joined Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan in the formerly high-floor group falling back to earth. At least Murray doesn’t have an injury he’s nursing.

1 of the Top 10 Fantasy Performers

Only one of the top 10 fantasy performances turned in this week was by a player owned in 100% of Yahoo leagues. To give some context, there are 23 players owned in 100% of leagues and another 15 owned in 99% of leagues. This is usually a stat that I like to track early in the season to find out who’s performing that we weren’t expecting. To see this kind of disparity halfway in the fantasy season means that we’re probably flat out ignoring some players. And I think we are – guys like Matt Stafford (58% owned) who is the QB8 in points per game, Jacoby Brissett (48% owned) who is QB10 in the same category and Kirk Cousins (64% owned), who is averaging 26 points per game the last 3 weeks. Throw in big performances by Latavius Murray and Marvin Jones and you have an average ownership of just 75% across the top 10 fantasy performers in Week 7. This is probably just a fluky week, but I think it’s time to take notice of a few of the QBs that fantasy players seem to insist on not rolling out there.

104 Rush Yards Per Game

The NFL’s rushing yards leader is currently Dalvin Cook, with 725 yards across 7 games. There’s only been one 200+ yard performance this season (Leonard Fournette, 225 yards, Week 4), so we’re lacking the gaudy totals that we have seen in previous years. But, none of that really matters to fantasy players as long as your guys are finding the end zone as well, which is what Cook is doing. Cook has scored 8 TDs on the season, which is tied with Aaron Jones for the league lead. Cook has also managed to have an amazing points floor, never scoring below 11.4 points on the season. Only Ezekiel Elliott can claim such a double-digit elite status. Even super fantasy RB Christian McCaffrey (who still leads Cook in points despite having his bye week already) cannot claim such a floor. Cook and McCaffrey sit alone in tier 1, about 30 points above the tier two guys, who all have 107-111 points. Cook’s ADP of RB10 this season makes him one of the few second round “steals” that are pretty rare any year.