Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Every week, Dave posts his player rankings on our website. He’s also a FantasyPros expert, so you can find him there compared to other experts across fantasy football. Drinkfive.com is the only place you can find Dave’s rankings all by themselves, so make sure to keep an eye on it as they change throughout the week, leading into Sunday. We’re going to look at where we deviate from the expert consensus ranking to clue us in to where Dave disagrees with the masses.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE-RB), ECR 21, Ranked 17 (+4) - Stevenson had a huge fantasy day, finishing as the RB2 on the week. With a quick turnaround, even though Damien Harris looks like he’ll return, you can expect Stevenson to get the majority of the work on Thursday night. Of course, as with all Belichick led backfields, this one is subject to game script, so there’s some volatility keeping him from being a lock as an RB1

Saquon Barkley (NYG-RB), ECR 16, Ranked 20 (-4) - Barkley is scheduled to return to the Giants on Sunday, but it’s going to be a tough one for him. The Giants go to Tampa on Monday night. The Bucs are on a 2 game losing streak and are still one of the best teams against the run, giving up the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. So, even though Barkley is back, you need to temper expectations and know that he’s a low RB2 or flex play at best.

Darrel Williams (RB-KC), ECR 23, Ranked 18 (+5) - Williams had a fantastic game on Sunday night in Las Vegas, along with most of the rest of the Chiefs offense. Catching 9 passes on 9 targets is going to keep him in the mix for sure, even when Clyde Edwards-Helaire does finally return. CEH has been designated to return, but apparently there’s still a chance he’s held out through the team’s Week 12 bye, so you can feel confident in firing up Williams at least one more week as a solid RB2 with a big upside.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN-WR), ECR 11, Rank 5 (+6) - You were already starting Chase, but I just had to point out that the WR4 on the year being ranked 11th is just too damn low. Dave has had his eyes open this year, but what’s wrong with everyone else?

DeVonta Smith (PHI-WR), ECR 23, Rank 18 (+5) - Smith had his best game of his rookie season last week, and now has two 20+ point performances in a row. He has 3 TDs in those two games, has 6 targets in each game, and has started to really bring up his catch %, now over 61% on the season. Smith gets New Orleans this week, giving up the 6th most points to opposing WRs.

Cole Beasley (BUF-WR), ECR 32, Rank 47 (-15) - Beasley has been trending way down the last 3 weeks. One of those games, the Bills scored only 6 points, but Beasley had 11 targets and could only turn that into 33 yards. Last week, he was only targeted twice and had 15 yards receiving. With Diggs also getting back on track, Beasley is going to fall way down the options list for the Bills.

Darnell Mooney (CHI-WR), ECR 41, Rank 33 (+8) - The Bears go on bye, and the rest of the league (appropriately) forgets them. In Week 9, Mooney had his best fantasy game as a pro, scoring twice. Justin Fields also had his best game as a pro. The Ravens pass defense the last two weeks has not been what it was to start the season, leaving Mooney as a WR3/Flex option for Week 11.

Kendrick Bourne (NE-WR), ECR 45, Rank 38 (+7) - Bourne led the Patriots in receiving yards and found the end zone for the 4th time this year. He now has at least 68 yards AND a TD in 4 of his last 8 games. This week’s matchup against Atlanta is a nice one, as the Falcons are giving up the 8th most points to opposing WRs. Bourne is only owned in 38% of Fleaflicker leagues.

It’s time for the playoff push in fantasy football - the last two weeks of the regular season are upon us. We’ll take a look at Dave’s rankings and compare them to the ECR (expert consensus rankings) on Fantasypros.com. Some players we like more than the crowd, some of them are ranked lower, but I’ll do my best to justify why I like them.

Boston Scott (RB-PHI), Rank 20, ECR 27 (+7) - Scott is in a committee in the Eagles backfield, but he’s been getting a decent share of work. Since being added to the rotation back in Week 6, he’s averaging 10 carries per week and has scored 4 touchdowns. Jordan Howard was also inactive last week due to an injury, and Miles Sanders tweaked his ankle during the week 12 game, so his status needs to be monitored. If Sanders does not go, then Scott’s stock goes up even more. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the second place team isn’t even close. The Jets have given up double digit points 18 times in 11 games this season. For a single week spot start, you could do a lot worse than Boston Scott.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-NE), Rank 25, ECR 28 (+3) - This week, the Patriots will play the Bills on Monday night football. The Bills just got torched by Jonathan Taylor for over 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago. While I’m not saying that there will be anything like a repeat of that, what I am saying is that the tape on how to run on the Bills is out there, and Bill Belichick is the coach who is most likely to be able to repeat that. Stevenson has led the Patriots backfield in carries in 2 of the last 3 weeks, and he’s a good flex play. The Bills are better at defending the pass than the run, so the Patriots will definitely lean on the run game instead of leaning on their rookie QB to defeat this stout defense.

Rex Burkhead (RB-HOU), Rank 30, ECR 33 (+3) - Burkhead is leading the way in the Houston backfield the last two weeks. While that hasn’t translated to a lot of fantasy points, he does have 33 touches over that time, and one thing we like to see from RBs is the opportunity to score points. If you’re getting the ball, you’re more likely to score. Simple as that. Burkhead is a touchdown dependent dart throw this week against the Colts.

Jamaal Williams (RB-DET), Rank 27, ECR 23 (-4) - Williams has moved up the charts due to the likely absence of D’Andre Swift coming up in week 13. This is an area where I disagree with Dave and I would go ahead and start Williams if you’re short at RB or need a flex play. Williams should see plenty of usage - last week he saw 20 touches, and Week 1 with Swift limited, he had 17 touches (8 receptions!). This will be the first full game where Williams has the backfield all to himself, and the Vikings are giving up the 9th most points to opposing RBs, after having just been dominated on the ground last week by the 49ers. 

Matt Breida (RB-BUF), Rank 33, ECR 30 (-3) - Breida has only been used in the last 3 games, but he’s scored in two of them and is averaging 12.07 points per game during that span. He has 1.57 points per touch in these three games, so he’s being very efficient during this time and has earned the right to get more work. I could definitely see his touches per game get into the 12-15 range very soon. This week they play the Patriots, who traditionally focus on shutting down the best weapons on the opposing team. Breida is probably the 4th best weapon the Bills are presenting at the moment, so this could be a sneaky good matchup for him if the primary offensive weapons are not effective. 

CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL), Rank 7, ECR 10 (+3) - Lamb is back in the lineup for this week, now practicing in full after being in the concussion protocol and missing the Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys play on Thursday night (with normal rest!) and will likely be missing Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson. Lamb should be in line for a ton of volume against the Saints, who give up the 5th most points to opposing WRs. Fire up Lamb in all formats as a very solid WR1.

Hunter Renfrow (WR-OAK), Rank 31, ECR 25 (-6) - Here’s a spot where I disagree with Dave. Since the Raiders bye in week 8, Renfrow has led the team in receptions and/or yardage in 3 of 4 games. He’s averaging 6.5 receptions over that span, and has 12.9 points per game during that time. Renfrow’s matchup this week is against the Washington Football Team, who give up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr throws for 300+ yards, so I expect them to air the ball out as much as is reasonable for the rest of the season. That, or we’ll just have to trust in the coin to deliver their victory this week. I like Renfrow as an easy WR3, even better than just a flex option.

Kendrick Bourne (WR-NE), Rank 38, ECR 34 (-4) - Here’s a spot where I suspect I see more value than Dave does. Bourne is certainly boom or bust, but he’s boomed in two of the last three weeks, scoring over 20 points in weeks 10 and 12. Bourne gets a consistent amount of targets, 4-6 each game, and does get a few handoffs occasionally, which helps, but doesn’t exactly provide him with a higher floor. There are no dominant receiving options on the Patriots, so it’s not like Bourne will get crowded out. He has a chance go really go off each game, so treat him as a high risk, high reward flex play, especially in a standard or half PPR format.

Van Jefferson (WR-LAR), Rank 33, ECR 31 (-2) - Van Jefferson has emerged as the #2 option on the Rams, albeit a distant second behind Cooper Kupp. Jefferson seems to only excel when scoring a touchdown, but the opportunities are definitely there. The Rams throw the ball about 37 times per game, and Jefferson is averaging 7.7 targets per game in the last 3 games. Jefferson has developed into a proper downfield threat, even with the addition of Odell Beckham. The Jaguars are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, so it’s a plus matchup for Van as the Rams look to beat up on the Jags after losing to the Packers.