Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The 3rd year wide receiver theory has been a staple for fantasy football fans year after year. The theory is based on the idea that wide receivers take at least 2 years to fully develop at the NFL level. Players like Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Roddy White and Sidney Rice all had breakout years in their 3rd season. Players and coaches alike all agree that this is no fluke due to the learning curve associated at the wide receiver position between college and the pros. The 2014 season promises to be one of the best wide receiver break-out seasons, if tradition holds true. The 2012 wide receiver draft class was stacked with talent. That leads us to our list of 3rd year wide receivers to keep an eye and target for your upcoming draft.

Alshon Jeffery, CHI

Jeffery's sophomore year flew in the face of the 3rd year theory. He combined with Brandon Marshall to create the best wide receiver duo in the league under the first year of Marc Trestman's tenure as head coach. The Bears offense is only going to improve with more practice and time in the same system. Last season Alshon Jeffery showed off a skill set including crisp route running, strong hands and a highlight reel circus catches. While his 2nd season was his break out season, the 3rd year theory is still very much alive for Jeffery. He now has 2 season of experience under his belt and a full off-season of training to build on in 2014. Alshon Jeffery won't make it out of the third round in most leagues.

Michael Floyd, ARI

2013 Stats: 65 Rec. 1,041 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Projections: 80 Rec. 1,200 Yds. 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 48th Overall/ 62nd ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Floyd is the perfect candidate for the 3rd year theory. He made great strides last year while breaking the 1,000 yard mark, but fantasy owners would like to see a guy get in the end zone a little bit more. At the beginning of the 2014 regular season Larry Fitzgerald will be 31 years old and entering his 11th season. Fitzgerald didn't have a bad year last season, especially with 10 TD's, but his age is a concern. Michael Floyd stepping up last season just set the table for a break out 2014 season. Carson Palmer is going to lean heavily on the younger wide receiver after a successful 2013. As of right now Michael Floyd is an amazing value pick with an ADP of 62nd. That probably won't hold up as he continues to impress throughout the preseason, but I still expect him to be a value pick in the 5th round.

Kendall Wright, TEN

2013 Stats: 94 Rec. 1,079 Yds. 2 TD's
2014 Projections: 90 Rec. 1,100 Yds. 6 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 69th Overall/ 86th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Wright is another 3rd year wide receiver who showed break out talent in his 2nd year. Where I expect to see Kendall Wright achieve official break out status is in the end zone this year. His 94 receptions last year make him an obvious choice in PPR leagues, but no matter what format you draft in you are going to want to pay attention to him. At 5'10" he is a little shorter than you would want in a wide receiver but he makes up for it by catching everything. Tennessee has no other clear cut star offensive weapon except for Kendall Wright. He is currently ranked 69th overall and early drafters are getting a lot of value with his 86th ADP.

Rueben Randle, NYG

2013 Stats: 41 Rec. 611 Yds. 6 TD's
2014 Projections: 65 Rec. 900 Yds. 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 92nd Overall/ 124th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Randle was most likely everyone's least favorite waiver pickup last season after having a strong 3 games in October before finishing the season in lackluster fashion. This season Randle is on my radar as the Giants look to find a replacement for Hakeem Nicks. Randle is a tall, well-built wide receiver with all the tools to break out in 2014. He is going to see more play time this season as the #2 on the Giants offense and I expect him to be Eli's favorite receiver in the red zone. Don't let the shaky 2013 Giant offense scare you. We saw this once before and they bounced back to a Super Bowl win. Randle is currently ranked 92nd overall with an ADP of 124th. I believe his money spot in value is somewhere in-between those two numbers right now, but that could change as we see more of him in the preseason.

Jarret Boykin, GB

2013 Stats: 49 Rec. 681 Yds. 3 TD's
2014 Projections: 60 Rec. 850 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 133rd Overall/ 170th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Boykin had a handful of impressive games last season. He is the first guy on this list to not be a number one or number two receiver for his team, but don't let that stop you from drafting some great value on your team this year. The Green Bay offense is built around Aaron Rodgers and he likes to distribute the ball to keep defenses guessing. You will have to keep an eye on the Packers at camp to see what is going on with the number three position, but I feel that Jarrett Boykin earned his opportunity last season. Boykin is a great addition to any team especially with his current rank to ADP differential.

Rod Streater, OK

2013 Stats: 60 Rec. 888 Yds. 4 TD's
2014 Projections: 60 Rec. 850 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 163rd Overall/ 237th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

Streater is currently listed on the Oakland depth chart as the number two receiver with Andre Holmes. The situation in Oakland is interesting and fantasy players are going to want to keep an eye on things on the left coast if you plan on drafting a Raider. Holmes and Streater are likely to be the guys in my opinion. Streater is primed for a break out year as he has shown good improvement in each of his previous two seasons. The Raiders also upgraded their quarterback position by signing Matt Schaub. Streater is currently ranked 163rd with an ADP of 237th. You can take a flier on Streater late if you have the adequate depth at your other positions, but chances are he will go undrafted in many leagues. I recommend you keep an eye on him as one of your waiver wire targets. He could prove very valuable once we all see what Oakland's offense is going to look like.

The final preseason games of any meaning claimed three more fantasy starters over the weekend. On Friday night, Julian Edelman and Spencer Ware both went down with knee injuries. Then, on Sunday, just as the Bears offense looked like it was really clicking, the Bears WR1 Cameron Meredith destroyed his knee.

Your draft may have already happened, or maybe it's coming up. Either way, you need to look to these fast rising replacements to keep your fantasy team stocked up before the season starts.

Danny Amendola & Chris Hogan - With Julian Edelman going down, the Patriots have a huge hole to fill, even with the offseason acquisition of Brandon Cooks. Danny Amendola might be the most likely to fill the slot role that Edelman was in, and comes with a very cheap price tag right now.

Amendola, ADP WR64, is currently going after Hogan, ADP WR53. I expect both to shoot up the ADP list by this time next week, so scoop them up before the final rounds of your draft if these are the guys you want.

Kareem Hunt - Rocketing up the ADP chart, Hunt may be a rookie, but he's going to have a very large role in the Chief's offense right away. Spencer Ware was already giving up carries to Hunt before his knee injury. Now, according to Coach Andy Reed, Hunt will be the "featured back".

This is great news for anyone who can get their hands on Hunt. He is unlikely to have to share many carries with Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller. Hunt's current ADP is RB28, but is certainly now an RB2 with lots of potential RB1 upside. He will need to be drafted the first half of the draft now, as his stock is rising sharply.

Kevin White, Kendall Wright & Victor Cruz - Replacing the Bears' breakout WR from 2016, Cameron Meredith, will be a tough job from a WR core that's rather lacking. One of these guys will rise to the top and be startable throughout the season. Right now, Kevin White is the only guy even being drafted, and he certainly seems to have the inside track.

With White's ADP sitting at RB63, I would recommend Amendola over him. I do suggest a flyer, however, on Kendall Wright. He has shown some great flashes at camp and in the third preseason game, all three of his receptions were third-down conversions. If he winds up being the go-to guy, he will be a great PPR play every week. He can currently be had at the end of the draft, or perhaps off your waiver wire.

Sure, you just completed your draft recently but nobody's team is perfect from the start, and since then there have already been injuries, depth chart changes, and trouble with the law, right? Always room for improvement out there and so we'll scour the waiver wire to find a few guys that may get your team just a little bit closer to that finish line. Remember that missing out on just that one guy, just that one week, could make all of the difference at the end of the year!

Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Carson Palmer (ARI) - 63% owned - Palmer may not last all season with his advanced age and 'dead arm', but he projects to do well in the short-term at least. He plays against the Lions at Ford Field in Detroit this Sunday and can be locked in as a high upside QB2 for the time being.

Running Back

Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) - 62% owned - People do realize that Doug Martin is suspended for the first few games of the season, right? Rodgers is not built to last a full season of rough and tumble running back work, but he'll get you RB2 production on a weekly basis for the first 3 games of the season.

Alvin Kamara (NO) - 12% owned - With Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in front of Kamara this season, his best bet is to solidify a role as a passing-down back in the offense (a job formerly held by Travaris Cadet). We should see his usage rise throughout the season, and if either Ingram or Peterson were to miss time he could become a big weekly contributor. 

Honorable mentions: Marlon Mack (IND) - 9% owned, De'Angelo Henderson (DEN) - 1% owned - Mack and Henderson are both outstanding athletes from this year's rookie draft that have a chance to carve out solid roles on their respective teams by midseason. In Mack's case, Frank Gore would need to step out of the way and in Henderson's case, Jamaal Charles and C.J. Anderson would have to disappoint.

Wide Receiver

Corey Davis (TEN) - 47% owned - A lot of fantasy owners were scared away by a hamstring injury that had Davis sidelined for the entire preseason, but it looks like he'll make his way onto the field starting in Week 1. Expect Davis to perform at a high level from early to midseason on, after he shakes a little rust off.

Tyler Lockett (SEA) - 44% owned - Lockett has proved himself as a talented receiver but took a step down in 2016 from his excellent rookie performance the previous year, only scoring 1 receiving touchdown as compared to his 6 in 2015. Now a 3rd year WR, he is a possible breakout candidate still available in more than half of Yahoo leagues.

Honorable mentions: Kevin White (CHI) - 49% owned, Kendall Wright (CHI) - 12% owned - One of these guys (and honestly I expect it to be Wright) will lead the Bears in receptions this year. If the cards fall just right, that could lead to a serviceable WR3 for the rest of the season. 

Tight End

Julius Thomas (MIA) - 53% owned

Coby Fleener (NO) - 49% owned

C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) - 41% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Go with the Buffalo Bills (37% owned) this week, as they are playing the Jets.. and the Jets are going to be all-time bad this year.