Welcome back to the rookie report! Week one was full of surprises and upsets, but isn’t every week in the NFL? Hey, “On any given Sunday…..,” right? Nowadays it’s more like any given Thursday, Sunday or Monday. Hopefully your fantasy teams were able to come out on top in week 1, but if not, it’s time to bounce back. Before we dive in to week 2’s rookie outlook, let’s take a look back at the fantasy rookie performer of the week for the season openers.
Rookie Performer of Week 1: Brandin Cooks, WR, NO: Cooks was a stud in the opener with Kenny Stills sidelined, racking up 3 catches on the opening drive and ending the game with 7 catches, 77 yards, 18 rushing yards, and a TD. It was just the start of what figures to be a dominant rookie campaign in PPR leagues. Honorable mention: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR
Here’s a quick look at what to expect for week 2:
Rookies to Start:
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. NO): West was one of the biggest surprises in the league in week 1. He put up triple-digit yards after starter Ben Tate did what Ben Tate does and got hurt. West struggled throughout the preseason, registering a yards per carry mark somewhere in the negative YATR range (Yards above Trent Richardson. We’re making his usual 2.9 YPC football’s Mendoza line). West looked like a different player in week one, putting up over 6 yards a carry. He’ll start against a not so scary Saints run defense. If you’re afraid the Browns will abandon the run after falling behind, don’t be. They didn’t when they fell behind the Steelers 24-3 and it almost helped them win the game. West is a no-brainer flex choice and a low end RB2 in 10-team leagues this week.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 2: @Cle.): On the other side of the Browns-Saints game, Cooks should be able to come close to matching his week one output. He is running a lot of the same routes that Darren Sproles ran in New Orleans, and that means they’re getting him the ball in space. It’s only a matter of time before he’s able to break a long one. Until he does, you’ll happily settle for his 14-16 points in PPR formats. He should be good for that again with Stills still on the mend and possibly out this week.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong, and I’ve been wrong about Benjamin. I still don’t think he’s got the upside of a true fantasy WR1, but he looks like a very safe play most weeks. The Panthers’ passing game really revolves around Kelvin and Greg Olsen. I’m a little hesitant to trust Kelvin since we haven’t seen him play with Cam, but everything I’ve heard this preseason said he and Cam were fast friends. I think the chemistry will be solid. Against the Lions sub-par secondary, Kelvin should approach 100 yards again and might find paydirt again. Feel free to trot him out comfortably as a WR3.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): I wouldn’t have the courage to play Sankey after watching him play behind Dexter McCluster and even Leon Washington on the depth chart in week 1, but I think he’ll climb soon. There’s at least a little worry that he’s this year’s version of Montee Ball, who was highly touted entering the season and wound up stuck behind Knowshon Moreno all season. Sankey did put up 25 yards on just 6 carries in week one, and the Cowboys defense is really bad. All Bishop needs is a chance. I’m just not sure if he gets it this week. You are probably best served with Sankey on the bench, but you should continue to keep him rostered. He’s got every-down skills.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 2: @NYG): Brown was really impressive in the Cardinals’ opener. He’s the clear cut WR3 in a vertical passing offense that often employs 3WR sets. He caught just 2 balls for 29 yards in the opener, but he did find the end zone and was on the field for nearly 60% of the offensive snaps. Head coach Bruce Arians has openly compared Brown to T.Y. Hilton, and Hilton had an impressive (albeit inconsistent) rookie campaign. Brown will be boom-or-bust. I feel like against the G-Men, Carson Palmer will have his pick of where to go with the ball. I’d expect Fitzgerald to be targeted more heavily to make up for week 1, which means Brown is likely more WR4 fodder than WR3.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Like Brown, Watkins is likely more WR4 than WR3. He managed just 3 catches for 31 yards in week 1 as he played through a foot injury, and this week he’s likely to see a lot of Brent Grimes. I’d expect him to at least match the week one stats, but I’m not sure he exceeds them by much. I’d likely leave Sammy on the bench until I see him start to produce more, but like I wrote last week, Watkins is going to be a focal point in this passing game eventually.
WR Marquise Lee, JAX (Wk. 2: @Was.): Lee put up a respectable stat line in week one with 6 grabs for 62 yards, but he got a bunch of it in garbage time. Not sure there will be as much of that this week in what I think is actually a winnable game for the Jags. I think he still might approach last week’s numbers as Allen Hurns comes back down to earth, but it would have to be PPR and a deeper league for me to consider trotting out Lee, even against a weak Redskins D.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 2: @Hou.): This is going to get redundant quickly. I have to put Carr somewhere on here as long as he’s starting, but things are going to be ugly for a while. They have a weak o-line, limited weapons, and are down MJD this week. They also face JJ Watt and the Houston Texans. I wouldn’t want Carr starting in a 2 QB league. He’s a bottom 10 option amongst the 32 starters.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): I was excited for Hill coming into week one, and then he got just 4 carries and played just 10 offensive snaps. I still think Hill has some big weeks coming as coach Hue Jackson mentioned that Hill will play more going forward, but I can’t trust that it starts this week. The Falcons’ defense is far from frightening, but I just don’t know how much more work Hill will see. Gio Bernard wasn’t exactly great on the ground last week, but he got the red zone touches. Keep playing the waiting game with Hill this week.
RB Devonta Freeman, ATL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Freeman looked really good on the limited touches he saw against the Saints, and his time is coming, but Steven Jackson isn’t done for yet. I think most of Jacquizz Rodgers’s touches will eventually make their way to Freeman, who might be the heir apparent to S-Jax. The problem for now is that the backfield is just too crowded to even roster Freeman in re-draft leagues. Antone Smith also continues to see some work, making this a 4-headed monster at RB.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 2: vs. StL.): I like Evans' upside, but I’m not sure the Bucs will throw it enough this week to make Evans playable. He was targeted a healthy 9 times in week 1, making 5 grabs for 37 yards and nearly secured his first TD. The usage is encouraging, but the Rams looked like a dumpster fire in the opener. If the Bucs can get out in front, they’ll ride the running game and really limit the damage Evans can do. He might be a good buy-low candidate after this week.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 2: vs. StL.): ASJ caught just one pass in the opener for 26 yards, and seems like a long shot to even suit up this week. He’s still running behind Brandon Myers on the depth chart, but his size will make him a tough matchup once he starts getting starter’s reps.
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. NO): With West getting the starting nod, Crowell will undoubtedly be overlooked in many leagues, but he is the superior talent of the 2 Browns’ rookies. Crowell is worth a stash if you have room on your bench in any league. He has RB1 upside if he can secure the starting gig and is a player to target in dynasty leagues. He’ll see change of pace work this week behind West in a run-heavy offense, but he found the end zone twice on just 5 carries last Sunday. He might still be a goal line vulture this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Hyde was impressive in limited carries in the season opener, and this week the 49ers get the porous Bears’ run defense. The Bears let Fred Jackson carve them up for 61 yards on just 7 carries and allowed nearly 6 yards per carry to the Bills as a team. The 49ers live for the power run game, and Hyde is going to be a big part of that, especially now that LaMichael James is off the team. I think he could certainly match the 50 yards and a score he put up against Dallas last week.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 2: @Ind.): I was a bit disappointed by Matthews usage in week one. He saw just 4 targets, and ended the game with 2 catches for 37 yards. He has superior talent to Riley Cooper, but until he leapfrogs him on the depth chart, his fantasy production will be inconsistent. He gets a solid matchup this week in what should be a shootout with Indy, but it’s hard to predict a huge week given his limited opportunities. Anything over 60 yards would be a win for Matthews in my opinion.
That’s all I’ve got for week 2. Hopefully it helps you make some tough lineup calls this week, but as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford, Adrian Peterson and the games other bigger names. However, it’s the tougher choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.
Here are a few names you might want to consider.
Carson Palmer QB Arizona – Carson Palmer might be dealing with a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder, but it didn’t stop him from throwing over 300 yards with two touchdowns against San Diego last week. Palmer should find similar success this week, albeit on the road, when Arizona takes on the New York Giants who surrendered 341 yards in the air to Detroit in Week 1. Palmer has a big play weapon in Michael Floyd and don’t discount Larry Fitzgerald just yet. The good news for Palmer is that RB Andre Ellington seem like he will be able to play through his foot injury, giving Palmer another dangerous passing option. Monitor his status, but it sounds like he will be ready to go. Start Palmer as a high end QB2.
Frank Gore RB San Francisco – Chicago just gave up 193 rushing yards at home to Buffalo in Week 1. With QB Colin Kaepernick expected to get his running yards, Gore and rookie RB Carlos Hyde should also see significant rushing yardage in the team’s home opener. Gore only tallied 66 rushing yards in Week 1, but he should not have too much trouble eclipsing the 110-yard mark in Sunday night’s Week 2 showdown. Gore is 31 years old and was expected to slow down last season, but still managed to put up 1,128 rushing yards with 9 rushing touchdowns - the second highest in his prolific career. Start Gore with confidence as your RB2 with expectations of 100+ rushing yards and a score.
C.J. Spiller RB Buffalo – Spiller’s timeshare with Fred Jackson will continue throughout the 2014 season barring injury. Still, both can be effective options with Spiller having much more potential due to his powerful burst and electrifying speed. This week Buffalo goes up against a Miami defense who held New England to just 89 rushing yards and 226 passing yards. But Miami is on the road in Week 2 and has a slew of defensive players battling injuries – though most should end up on the field Sunday. Buffalo is coming off a big upset where they manhandled Chicago on the road in Week 1 and will be looking to carry that momentum into Week 2 against Miami. Spiller can be dangerous when he finds a hole and is always a candidate for a big play. Big play of not, Spiller should still put up serviceable numbers this week, enough to qualify as a decent RB2 option.
Kelvin Benjamin WR Detroit – Kelvin Benjamin was much of a secret by the time your league had its draft, but he still probably didn’t go as high as his worth this season will dictate. The 6’5” 240 pound rookie receiver wasted no time in making his name known in the NFL churning out a 6-catch, 92-yard performance with a touchdown to boot. And this was on the road against a should be tough Tampa Bay defense with back up QB Derek Anderson at the helm. This week Benjamin plays at home against Detroit and starting QB Cam Newton is expected to return. Newton will often be hurried by Detroit’s aggressive D-line, but Benjamin is a big target that has speed and the ability to get open in a hurry. I fully expect Benjamin to put up similar numbers to what he did in Week 1 with the potential to haul in his first 100-yard receiving game. Benjamin is a very nice WR2 option and maybe even a lower end WR1 for Week 2.
Reggie Wayne WR Indianapolis – Reggie Wayne was drafted in the latter rounds of so many fantasy drafts this year – much lower than receiving counterpart T.Y. Hilton. The thought process was that the Wayne is now 35 years old, had ACL repair surgery last season and that Hilton has taken over as the big go to option for QB Andrew Luck. Well, as we all saw in Indy’s Week 1 opener at Denver, Wayne is back and better than ever. He is obviously the guy that Luck entrusts catching 9 of 13 targets and seemed to get open at will. Hilton will still be a major part of the Indianapolis passing game, but Wayne looks to be a bigger part. Yes, it was only one game, but Wayne sure showcased himself as a top league receiver in Monday night’s battle with the AFC champs and showed zero indication that he plans to slow down. As long as Wayne’s big-time play holds up, he should hold borderline WR1 status and that especially goes for this week’s matchup at home against Philadelphia that let Jacksonville’s Chad Henne pass for two first quarter touchdowns. Wayne will light it up in Philly, especially in PPR leagues). Expect 7 or more catches, lots of yards and Wayne’s first score of the year.
Larry Donnell TE New York Giants – Larry Donnell is separating himself from the TE pack. QB Eli Manning has always liked hitting his TEs and this year should be no different. Donnell, a 6’6” 265 pound target, had preseason completion from Daniel Fells and Adrian Robinson, but has established his starting role in Week 1 by catching 5 or his 8 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown grab against Detroit. Coach Tom Coughlin had mentioned a committee attack at TE but Donnell is certainly Manning’s go-to guy. New York has a tougher defensive matchup in Week 2 against Arizona, but they are at home and Donnell should still have plenty of opportunities. In leagues that start two TEs, Donnell is a nice play this week, but can even be useful in one TE leagues as a replacement for injured players like Jordan Reed or Jordan Cameron.
Hot Pick Up Bust of the Week
Terrance West RB Cleveland – New Orleans can give up the rushing yards – especially on the road, where they find themselves in Week 2 at Cleveland. The question is, how much Cleveland will be running the ball. In Week 1 New Orleans was on the road battling Atlanta where they gave up 123 rushing yards. Of course, Atlanta has a much more potent offense and not only kept up with Drew Brees and company but pasted them with 445 passing yards. West, who is starting in place for the injured Ben Tate, may find his team unable to keep up with New Orleans’ high flying offense and not getting as many run opportunities, most likely trailing early on. Plus, he has fellow backfield mate Isaiah Crowell to contend with. West has been a popular pick up this week, but it’s just not in the cards for him to put up fantasy relevant numbers in Week 2. Hold onto him and hope he starts at home in Week 3 vs Baltimore where it will be much more of a smashmouth type game that could offer plenty of run opportunities. Unless you are desperate for RB help this week, West should be on your bench.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week two was a fun one for some of the rookie crop, most notably Jeremy Hill, Sammy Watkins and Terrance West. It wasn’t nearly as much fun for the NFL, which is still scrambling to stop the PR maelstrom they’re up against in the wake of the Ray Rice video, several other domestic violence cases and the new accusations against Adrian Peterson. It’s getting to be a mess, but that’s not the sort of thing we dive into here at the Rookie Report. Let’s let others deal with those issues, and talk about what to do with the rookies for week 3.
Rookies to Start:
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): Week 2 more closely resembled how the Bengals intend to use Hill than week one did. The bruiser ran for 70+ yards and a score and caught for 22 more yards. The Titans, meanwhile, were busy getting steamrolled by DeMarco Murray and the Dallas running game. With A.J. Green still dinged up, expect the Bengals to hammer Tennessee on the ground, and I think Hill is a very good bet to score another TD. He’s a great flex play this weekend.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. SD): It’s hard to envision Watkins duplicating his stat line from last week, but he’s clearly the focal point of the Bills’ passing game right now. I would expect that to continue in week 3 and San Diego’s secondary hasn’t been great thus far. Michael Floyd and the Cardinals torched them in week 1. I’d roll with Watkins as my WR3.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): West got it done in a surprising week 2 victory over the Saints. The Ravens boast a tougher run defense than New Orleans. West is still going to see a high volume of carries and could be a decent flex option, but I doubt he puts up the kind of points he did a week ago.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 3: vs. Min.): Cooks was disappointing last week vs. Cleveland, but he still makes a reasonable WR3 in PPR leagues going forward. The Mark Ingram injury could actually get him more work as a runner and in the short passing game. Expect a minor bounce back this week.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Evans is sort of a roll of the dice this week. He has been a big part of the Tampa passing game, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been fantastic. Atlanta is likely to be playing from ahead, and their secondary isn’t very good. It’s a decent week to take a shot on Evans, but know there’s some bust risk.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): Kelvin didn’t do much damage in week 2, but he’s too big a part of the Panthers’ offense to not be considered in fantasy. It isn’t exactly a tasty matchup, but I’d expect Benjamin’s numbers to fall somewhere in between his lines from week 1 and week 2.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ind.): Banged up for much of the preseason, Robinson finally looked healthy in week two, coming up with 4 catches for 75 yards. He has the size to physically dominate DBs, and I think he will be the best Jaguars receiver going forward. I think another 70 yards is likely in a game that will be played from behind again.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 3: @NE): This is going to be a weekly tradition before long. The Patriots just forced 4 interceptions from Matt Cassel, and I think their defense has a chance to be scary. Carr seems just cocky enough to test Darelle Revis. I doubt he wins that matchup. It could be another long day for Carr and the Raiders.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Even if Sankey didn’t have some climbing to do up the depth chart, Cincy is a brutal matchup. Don’t expect much even if he sees extended work and keep him benched.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): This is one call I think might backfire on me. Crowell is touchdown dependent right now as long as West sees the majority of the carries. He has some value, but against a better defense this week, I don’t think he matches his rushing yards from a week ago. I do think he could overtake West for the starting gig eventually.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Williams still isn’t seeing enough action to warrant a fantasy start. It’s still mostly Rashad Jennings. Until his role increases, you have to leave Williams benched, especially with the offense looking anemic so far.
WR Marquise Lee, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ind.): The Jaguars quarterback play has been pretty bad so far, and Lee has been inconsistent. He hasn’t done much damage outside of garbage time in week 1. He’s going to have some solid PPR weeks, but I wouldn’t count on this being one of them. His value should rise once Blake Bortles takes over.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. KC): Landry gets mention this week because it looks like he’s worked his way into the WR3 role in Miami, a role that has made Rishard Matthews and Brandon Gibson playable at times. It’s worth noting he had the lowest drop rate in college last year of any rookie wide receiver. He will become a trusted target before long.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 3: @NO): I only mention Teddy because Matt Cassel threw 4 picks last week. Adrian Peterson is out for the foreseeable future, so this offense will need a QB that isn’t just a game manager. That isn’t Cassel. He’s still yet to complete a pass more than 15 yards downfield through 2 weeks. Another bad performance could be enough to get Teddy on the field. He should be squarely on the 2QB league radar.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ind.): Speaking of starting QBs on the hot seat, Chad Henne’s should be scalding before long. The Jags haven’t had any semblance of an offense so far, and I’m sure the fans in Jacksonville are already clamoring for Bortles to take over. The Jaguars want to hold Bortles off as long as possible, but if things continue the way they’re going, they won’t be able to wait much longer. Blake could have mid-level QB2 upside if he gets the starting job.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 3: @NO): Like I mentioned above under Bridgewater, Peterson isn’t coming back any time soon. Matt Asiata isn’t exactly a stud. McKinnon is worth a stash in deeper leagues. He’s a raw prospect, but one with great athleticism (more than Asiata at least).
RB Damien Williams, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. KC): The Dolphins took some big hits last week losing Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller during the course of the game. They went out and signed Daniel Thomas back to the roster this week, but Williams was impressive in the preseason and beat out Thomas for a roster spot. Miller is likely to play this week, but Williams is likely to see the change of pace work. If Miller doesn’t play, treat Williams as a deep league flex option this week.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 3: @NYG): In the preseason, it looked like Jonathan Grimes was the number 2 back behind Arian Foster, even when the depth chart came out with Alfred Blue listed as number 2. By now, it’s become clear that it’s Blue’s job. He isn’t fantasy relevant yet, but it’s hard to imagine Foster stays healthy all year with his current workload. Blue could be a great speculative add in deep leagues.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 3: @Det.): It’s become pretty clear that Adams is pushing Jarrett Boykin for the WR3 spot in Green Bay, and might completely surpass him. This is a pass heavy offense with no tight end to speak of. The GB number 3 is a fantasy relevant role, and Adams is worth a roster spot in 12-team leagues.
WR Ryan Grant, WAS (Wk. 3: @Phi.): After DeSean Jackson went down in week 2, Grant shined in the blowout win over Jacksonville. He clearly has a great rapport with Kirk Cousins, but he will need DeSean out again to be fantasy relevant this week. He’s an interesting WR3 option in 12-team leagues if D-Jax doesn’t play. As of now though, Jackson is expected to suit up.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully it helps you come away victorious. I’ll end this the same way I end every week: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was a big one for the current rookie class. First round quarterbacks Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater got their first taste of NFL action, and it won’t be short lived. Matt Cassel is on injured reserve and Gus Bradley as anointed Bortles the Jaguars’ starter for the remainder of the season. It was another solid week for the rookie receivers too, with big performances from Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and John Brown. With the first bye week of the season upon us, it’ll be even more critical to pay attention to the rooks since you might need some of them to fill in for your studs who are taking the week off. With that in mind, let’s dive right in to the week 4 outlook…
Rookies to Start:
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Kelvin is quickly earning automatic start status as long as your league requires 3 WRs. Regardless of matchup, KB is going to see plenty of targets and is a tough cover for just about anyone due to his size. The Ravens allow the 7th most points to opposing WRs thus far. Don’t overthink this. For the record, I was wrong about Benjamin in the preseason. His drop issues still remain, but he sees so much volume as the clear number one WR in Carolina, he’ll keep producing.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 4: @Dal.): While the Cowboys’ defense hasn’t exactly lived up to the “historically bad” hype, but Cooks’s speed will give the ‘Boys fits. You should feel comfortable firing him up as a WR3 in PPR leagues.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): The Atlanta Falcons have a really good offense. They also have a really bad defense. That should equate to Teddy throwing it a bit more than the Vikes would like and he should have success when he does. Matt Cassel was averaging under 6 yards per attempt this season, and Bridgewater was at 7.5 in his first game action. Granted it’s a small sample size, but Teddy could be in line for a really strong first start. He should be a high-end QB2 this week.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 4: @SD): Bortles should be a low-end QB2 option this week. There’s a little fear that the Chargers will be able to control the clock and keep the ball out of Bortles’s hands. If the Jags’ defense can get off the field, there are some factors working in Blake’s favor. SD has allowed a QB rating of over 100 through the first 3 games, is missing one of their best defensive players in Melvin Ingram, and haven’t picked off a pass yet this season. Add in that the Jaguars will be playing from behind, and there’s potential for a nice fantasy day.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Car.): The only thing keeping me from saying to start Zo-Bot for sure are the reports that the Ravens plan to reinsert Bernard Pierce as the starter. Taliaferro was outstanding against the Browns, and has earned himself a share of the workload, and the Panthers’ defense isn’t nearly as stingy as you might think. They’ve allowed a whopping 6 yards per carry through 3 games and were gashed by the Steelers on Sunday night. I like Taliaferro as a flex this week.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Sankey’s role is growing quickly, and the Colts have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing RBs at 21.7 points per game. Greene is still the starter, but I think Sankey sees a good amount of work this week and is a decent bet for double-digit fantasy points. I’d say better than a 50/50 shot in PPR leagues.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 4: @Hou.): I like Watkins the most of any WR listed as borderline this week since the Texans have given up plenty of yards to opposing WRs, but with E.J. at QB, there’s always some risk of a bust game. If I had to guess, I’d expect him to put up 70-80 yards but he could certainly fall short.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 4: @Pit.): Evans certainly seemed to benefit from having Mike Glennon under center in week 3, but Glennon fed targets to Vincent Jackson last season. Granted, he didn’t have another weapon like Evans, but I’d want to play the waiting game with this situation before I roll with Evans. He could have a really strong game this week, but it would probably come from my bench.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 4: @SF): Matthews makes an intriguing bye week fill-in option. The 49ers have allowed the 2nd most points to opposing WRs through the first 3 weeks, and Matthews has clearly been better than Riley Cooper thus far. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matthews find double-digit points again, and I’m pretty confident he’ll have at least 6. He’s a better PPR play than standard.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 4: @SD): Robinson is quickly becoming the go-to guy in Jacksonville. The Jaguars will play from behind a lot, so there’s a ton of long term upside. Bortles leaned on Robinson after getting in against Indy and will likely continue to do so. 60-70 yards seems like the floor for what he could do this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): I’m still not ready to trust Carr. He’s lost his top receiver Rod Streater for the year and has a non-existent run game. This week the Raiders get to travel 8 or 9 time zones east to play in London. Hard to imagine Carr has a banner day. Leave him out of your lineup if you’ve got him.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): It looks like Arian Foster is going to play in week 4. If he doesn’t, Blue would get a slight bump to borderline, but the Bills run D has been stingy. The Texans will certainly run, but Blue would be no lock to match his week 3 output.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): I love McKinnon’s raw talent and he does have a tasty matchup, but for some reason the Vikings seem committed to plodder Matt Asiata. With AP out, the Vikings are in dire need of playmakers and McKinnon and Cordarrelle Patterson are the best options. Norv Turner just doesn’t know how to use them right now. If the Vikes change course on Asiata, Jerick could be in for a big day. I just don’t see it happening.
RB Devonta Freeman, ATL (Wk. 4: @Min.): Not much analysis needed here. There are just too many mouths to feed in the Falcons’ backfield in a pass-happy offense to make Freeman a viable fantasy play right now.
WRs Allen Hurns & Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 4: @SD): Hurns totaled just one catch in week 3, albeit a 60+ yard touchdown catch. He just won’t see enough volume with Cecil Shorts back in the mix. Lee, meanwhile, likely won’t even play this week due to injury. Even if he does suit up, he still has work to do to establish a role and rapport with Bortles.
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 4: @Pit.): ASJ is a tempting option with the Steelers allowing 12.3 points per game to opposing tight ends so far, but I just don’t trust this offense to get him the ball enough for a productive day.
Rookies on Byes this week: RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrance West, CLE, RB Jeremy Hill, CIN, RB Marion Grice, ARI, WR John Brown, ARI, and WR Cody Latimer, DEN
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): This one will require a little monitoring of the situation. Jake Locker is questionable with a wrist injury, but it’s not certain whether it’ll be Mett or Charlie Whitehurst who would start in his place. It’s a great matchup with the Colts giving up a ton of points to opposing QBs, and Mettenberger has the ability to take advantage.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Hyde would be a ballsy play, even in deep leagues, but there has been a bunch of speculation that the 49ers will go back to playing bully ball and pounding it on the ground this week to try to get back on track. If they do that, Hyde will certainly see a decent share of carries.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): The Jaguars have been giving up 28.7 points per game to opposing RBs so far this year, easily the worst in the league. Do your really think Donald Brown will do that much damage? The Chargers did add Shaun Draughn this week, but they won’t have time to work him into the gameplan. It’ll be Oliver getting the number 2 carries. I think the Chargers will realize that giving Donald Brown 31 carries a week when the RB group is thin to begin with is a recipe for disaster. I like Oliver to top 50 yards and possibly find paydirt.
RB Marion Grice, ARI (Wk. 4: Bye): I know it’s silly to list a player on a bye, but people should be aware of him as a possible stash. The Cardinals swiped him from San Diego’s practice squad, and he could find a role in this offense. Andre Ellington is playing through an injured foot, Jonathan Dwyer likely won’t be on the field this year, and Stepfan Taylor just isn’t very good. Grice is a versatile player who should be getting 5-10 touches per game before long.
WR Philly Brown, CAR (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Brown caught a surprising 7 passes in week 3 with Jerricho Cotchery out. If Cotchery misses another week, Brown is an interesting PPR option against a team that has struggled to contain possession receivers and was gouged by Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins a week ago. As I mentioned earlier, the Ravens have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Moncrief got involved in the 2nd half last week despite a big Colts lead and he was impressive. He could surprise again this week if T.Y. Hilton can’t play despite the likely scenario that Indy wins big. It’s only a matter of time before the Colts realize Moncrief is a better WR than Hakeem Nicks.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Amaro has started to make his presence felt, and the only players the Lions’ defense has been at all generous too are the tight ends, allowing 9.3 points per game to them so far. I like Amaro to catch for over 50 yards this week with a chance for more.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you survive the season’s first bye week unscathed. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.