Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

By now, everyone has heard about the third year wide receivers and their breakout years. If you haven't, Troy would like to have a word with you. Over here at drinkfive, we've noticed that there's a lot of guys breaking out in their second season now. I'm not talking about guys who are just getting noticed, I mean guys who are fantasy relevant right now. For example, Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Floyd and Josh Gordon were all second year guys last year. They, with Kendall Wright, all had over 1000 yards receiving in 2013. Here are six guys who you want to seriously consider drafting, and you will find that most, if not all of them, have great draft value as well.

Keenan Allen, SD

2013 Stats: 71 Rec, 1046 Yds, 8 TD's

2014 Projection: 85 Rec, 1250 Yds, 8 TD's

2014 Ranking/ADP: 30 Overall / 37 ADP

(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

Allen was clearly the standout rookie from last season, being the only first year WR to put up over 1000 yards. Allen is definitely the beneficiary of injuries to people around him, but he made the most of it. Allen had only 12 targets in the first 3 games, so he even has room for his numbers to go up! Last year, Allen caught 71 of 105 targets, so Rivers is going to know he can rely on him when he throws it his way. Allen had 5 games over 100 yards receiving and 7 games over 10 points in a standard league. His current ADP at the end of the 4th round is great value for a guy that has a serious chance to be a WR1. Heck, we put him in our top 10 on a podcast in the offseason.

Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN

2013 Stats: 45 Rec, 469 Yds, 4 TD (+ 5 other TD's!)

2014 Projection: 60 Rec, 900 Total Yds, 10 Total TD's

2014 Ranking/ADP: 50 Overall / 51 ADP

(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

Patterson is a fun player to watch. He's got the chance to score every time he touches the ball, and his 9 TD's in three different ways last year goes to prove that. Patterson will be given an increased role in Minnesota this season, and will not be held back by weak quarterbacks as much as his teammates. He has value as a runner and returner, which accounted for 5 of his TD's last year. Patterson was only targeted 77 times last year and I expect that number to go up to near 100. He's currently sitting at the end of the 5th/beginning of the 6th round. He's got a great nose for the end zone and he'll be a great WR3 or flex guy to throw in there this year. Touchdowns mean consistent week-to-week scoring, which is fantasy gold.

Markus Wheaton, PIT

2013 Stats: 6 Rec, 64 Yds

2014 Projection: 65 Rec, 900 Yds, 6 TD

2014 Ranking/ADP: 125 Overall / 174 ADP

(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

Wheaton's 2013 campaign was severely hampered by not one, but two broken fingers - Ouch! Thus far in camp, that injury is showing no lingering effects of the injury. There is no lingering competition, either. Wheaton has the 'X' receiver spot all sewn up, and the 113 receptions that Sanders and Cotchery had need to go somewhere. Expect Wheaton's targets to be somewhere north of 100 and to be an important cog in the up-tempo offense that Pittsburgh will be running this year. Wheaton will definitely be the second guy behind Antonio Brown, but after that, there is really no competition for targets for Wheaton. He has all the talent needed to fill that role on the Steelers, it will just come down to staying healthy. Wheaton's ADP shows that he isn't even drafted in most 10 and 12 team leagues. Wheaton will be a HUGE pickup at the very end of the draft to add quality depth to your roster.

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

2013 Stats: 52 Rec, 802 Yds, 2 TD's

2014 Projection:70 Rec, 950 Yds, 5 TD

2014 Ranking/ADP: 105 Overall / 126 ADP

(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

Last year, Hopkins had a very respectable 802 yards, but didn't find the end zone enough to be a valuable fantasy player. Houston's awful QB situation last year did him no favors. The addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick is a steady hand that will assure that this does not happen two years in a row. Hopkins had a nice 15 yards per reception and should see increased targets and receptions this year. As long as he can find the end zone a few more times, he will be very worthy of spot starts and bye week replacement duty. His draft position shows he's a very late round flier - I'd suggest Wheaton first though.

Kenny Stills, NO

2013 Stats: 32 Rec, 641 Yds, 5 TD's

2014 Projection: 64 Rec, 1200 Yds, 8 TD

2014 Ranking/ADP: 130 Overall / 161 ADP

(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

Stills is probably my favorite late round flier, and the guy who I will be taking as often as I can - at the end of the draft that is. Last year, Stills lead the league in yards per reception with 20 yards per catch. During the offseason, the Saints got rid of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles whom had a combined 143 targets. We all know that Drew Brees is going to sling the ball all over the place - he had 650 pass attempts last year, his lowest in 4 years (though still insanely high). The Saints are as pass-heavy as any team in the league and Stills is a burner who will catch the ball. Brees will trust him more in year two, and he should double his targets. Stills reminds me of a young DeSean Jackson, but with a better QB.

Terrance Williams, DAL

2013 Stats: 44 Rec, 736 Yds, 5 TD

2014 Projection: 70 Rec, 1000 Yds, 8 TD

2014 Ranking/ADP: 78 Overall / 92 ADP

(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

Williams is in a similar situation to Markus Wheaton. They are both the unquestioned starter opposite a stud #1 receiver (Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown, respectively). They are also both moving up the line because the team got rid of an older receiver. Weird coincidences aside, Terrance Williams did get a lot more experience last year compared to Wheaton. Williams was good for almost 17 yards per catch last year, and won't slow down in his increased role with the high flying Dallas offense. Tony Romo also likes to throw the ball - maybe not as much as Drew Brees, but the Cowboys are certainly a pass first kind of team. Being drafted in the 10th round would be great value for him, but don't hesitate to reach for him in the 9th. That's where you draft WR4's and 5's and Williams is going to be a 3 for sure, with potential to be a WR2.

We are coming up to the halfway point of the season means we have a lot more information on the identities of teams, which means we can use that information to our advantage! This week we are going with a high cost QB/WR stack playing against an extremely weak secondary, taking two RB's that have great matchups, spending high on our TE/K/DEF to get the best value and betting on a couple bargain WR's to come through.

QB - Philip Rivers, SD - $8,500 at BAL:  Rivers has put up the most fantasy points at the QB position over the past 4 weeks and now gets a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens weak secondary. High price tag, but well worth it this week.

RB - Todd Gurley, STL - $8,100 vs. SF:  The Rams have been giving teams a heavy dose of Todd Gurley, as over the past 3 games he's rushed 68 times for 433 yards and 2 touchdowns and also getting some looks in the passing game as well. This should continue in a great matchup against the 49ers.

RB - Justin Forsett, BAL - $6,900 vs. SD:  Forsett is a great play for the price this week as he faces against a Chargers defense allowing a league worst 5.3 yards per carry.

WR - Keenan Allen, SD - $8,000 at BAL:  Picking the top receiving option in San Diego to stack with Rivers this week. Look for Allen to top 100 yards with the chance for multiple scores.

WR - Stefon Diggs, MIN - $6,700 at CHI:  Diggs has emerged as the top receiving option for the Vikings and is coming off back to back games over 100 yards. Looking for this streak to continue against Chicago in week 8.

WR - Michael Crabtree, OAK - $5,700 vs. NYJ:  The Oakland passing attack draws a tough matchup this week but Crabtree should still see plenty of targets at the low price tag.

TE - Tyler Eifert, CIN - $6,000 at PIT:  Eifert has been a top TE option all year and this game has shootout potential, which should mean plenty of opportunities for him to reach the end zone.

K - Brandon McManus, DEN - $5,000 vs. GB:  Denver could have trouble finding the endzone against a tough Packers defense but should still be able to move the ball enough to give McManus plenty of field goal opportunities.

DEF - St. Louis, STL - $5,100 vs. SF:  Great defense going up against a completely inept offense which is always a good play.

Keenan Allen – Torn ACL- Out for Season

Fantasy football aside, you just have to feel bad for Keenan Allen. This is a big blow for fantasy owners who may have drafted him in the second or third round. This will open up more targets for Travis Benjamin, Dontrelle Inman, and my favorite of the three Tyrell Williams. Also going to give a bump to Antonio Gates and Woodhead. Hoping for a speedy recovery for Allen and looking forward to seeing him back out next year.

Robert Griffin III – Broken bone in non-throwing shoulder- Placed on IR

Two things we can count on: the sun coming up in the morning and RG3 suffering injuries. Joking aside, it's tough to see even as a Steelers fan. RG3 just can’t stay healthy and I am hopeful you were not starting or planning on starting RG3. Good news is McCown is back and Gary Barnidge owners can breath easier.

Sammy Watkins – Sore foot- Day to Day

News broke this morning that Watkins may be shut down for the year and thankfully that is not the case. It seems there aren't any structural issues with his cyborg foot, but he is sore and feeling a lot of discomfort. If you own Watkins, buckle up for a bumpy ride. We can expect to see a Q next to his name for the remainder of the season.

Zach Ertz – Rib Displacement- Week to Week

Good news is Ertz did not break or crack a rib. Bad news, coach Pederson said this is not the kind of injury Ertz can play through. Something to monitor, but owners should be looking for a replacement for the next few weeks.

Russell Wilson – Sprained Ankle- Day to Day

Russell avoided the dreaded high ankle sprain and is expected to start Sunday. He will be limited at practice this week but should see the field vs the Rams. If you drafted Wilson, chances are you are going to play him. However, I would temper expectations and see how he is moving on that ankle come Sunday.

Demaryius Thomas – Hip- Day to Day

Thomas suffered a hip injury during the Panthers game Thursday and had an MRI done on Friday. Thankfully it's all good news and he was even on the practice field Monday morning. No real concerns here.

Julius Thomas – Sprained Ankle- Day to Day 

Julius suffered an ankle sprain Sunday vs the Jaguars. This is worth watching because Thomas has a history of ankle issues. We should know more in the next few days but all signs are pointing to Thomas playing on Sunday against the Chargers. 

Three weeks are in the books, and that means that it's time for us to check out some player trends. After all, in a row does a trend make. Or at least that's what Dave says. Anyways, there's been a ton of points this season, so let's take this time to look at the players who are consistently improving on a weekly basis. These are guys who are both studs that you might expect to see atop the fantasy rankings, and guys who are moving their way up from the depths of the preseason ADP charts.

James Robinson (RB-JAX) – Wk 1 vs IND – 9.5, Wk 2 @ TEN – 19.5, Wk 3 vs MIA – 27.9. Robinson was the lone bright spot on the Jaguars last week. He has trended up for three weeks in a row in lots of categories – total yards, total points, touchdowns scored and even receptions. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, he is in the top 20 for both carries and receptions. He’s the overall RB5 on the season. There’s almost no competition for him at his position on the Jaguars, so Robinson looks like he needs to be an every week starter. Coming up, Jacksonville goes to Cincy and Houston, followed by playing Detroit at home before their bye week. All of these teams are in the top 7 when it comes to giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Now is the time to try and acquire Robinson, as his value is only bound to go up.

Jerick McKinnon (RB-SF) – Wk1 vs ARI – 11.9, Wk 2 @ NYJ – 13.7, Wk 3 @ NYG – 15.2. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in all 3 games so far this season, a great trend for fantasy football. It may even hold for a while considering how banged up the 49ers backfield is. He was used sparingly in the first two weeks, getting only 9 total touches, though he was also used in the return game a bit. With nobody else to take carries from him last week, he had 17 total touches. That’s a usage rate that I expect to continue as long as Coleman and Mostert are sidelined. Even when they come back, it seems as though McKinnon will see some touches, and if his knack for scoring touchdowns continues, it would be silly to keep him on the sidelines. Coming up the 49ers have 3 straight home games against Philly, Miami and the Rams, all of whom are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up points to opposing RBs.

Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) – Wk 1 vs GB – 3.6, Wk 2 @ IND – 5.9, Wk 3 vs TEN – 27. Jefferson was the Vikings 1^st round pick this year and he has been thrown right into the offense. He’s increased his receptions, targets and yards each week, topping out last week with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 175 yards. He also found the end zone and his 27 points made him the WR2 on the week. There is a Stefon Diggs sized hole on the Vikings offense, and Jefferson looks like he might fill it very nicely. Coming up are games at Houston and Seattle, followed by Atlanta at home and then the bye week. Houston is halfway respectable against the WR, but Seattle and Atlanta are giving up the 1^st and 3^rd most points to opposing WRs, respectively. It’s time to get Jefferson on your team and into your lineup.

Keenan Allen (WR-LAC) – Wk 1 @ CIN – 5.7, Wk 2 vs KC – 13.1, Wk 3 vs CAR – 23.7. Allen is known as one of the players with the largest share of his team’s targets on an annual basis. He is currently tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league leading 37 targets. His targets, receptions and yardage have all gone up week to week. Last week he added on a touchdown to make him WR4 on the week and WR12 on the season. Allen catching 13 passes on 19 targets from rookie Justin Herbert is a great sign as well. The distribution of the targets can suddenly shift when a new QB enters the scene, however it looks like Herbert is firmly focused on his top WR now. Upcoming games in Tampa and New Orleans, followed by hosting the Jets will all be tough. Tampa gives up the 12^th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and they’re the least stingy of that group. I guess we finally found something that the Jets don’t suck at. Still, Allen is a solid WR1 and needs to be in your lineup every week, regardless of who is at QB for the Chargers.