Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

199 Yards Kicked

Justin Tucker kicked 3-50+ yard field goals in the first half of Sunday's game - two of them coming inside the final two minutes of the half. For the game, he kicked 4 FG's totaling 199 yards - a completely meaningless and thus fitting stat. Just the kind of stat that is followed by a slow-clap worthy dad joke to begin a press conference. Or perhaps a play where an entire team is held, and then gives up a safety in order to secure victory. The Ravens aren't pretty to watch, but damn it's interesting.

3 Plays in a Row

The Chiefs had a sequence of three plays in a row where they scored points in Sunday night's game in Denver. A safety, followed by a return of the ensuing free kick and then the extra point locked up 9 points in just 16 seconds for the Chiefs. It's not unheard of to have several plays score points a row in a game, however, the same team doing it on more than two plays in a row is not something I remember seeing. This game also had another fun stat I appreciated. Emmanuel Sanders had 99 yards (and a TD) on a drive that started from the Denver 12. Yay, penalties! Also, my dynasty team thanks you, Sanders.

7 Fourth Quarter Comebacks

The first place, 7-4 Detroit Lions have won all of their games after being down in the fourth quarter. It's not often a result of a pretty Matt Stafford performance, but he has figured out how to just win games this year. The Lions essentially have a 2-game lead over the Vikings, by virtue of the tiebreaker, and there are only 5 games left in the regular season. Meanwhile, the collapse continues in Minneapolis, where it'll be a cold, cold winter if they miss the playoffs after starting the season 5-0.

34.14 Fantasy Points

Colin Kaepernick lead all fantasy players in Week 12 with 34.14 points, and is the 3rd best QB over last 4 weeks, averaging 25.18 points per week. The Niners have not, of course, won a single game with Kaep at the helm, but it shouldn't stop you from winning fantasy games! He's owned in only 24% of leagues (it was 18% going into yesterday's game). His superpower this year is garbage time, so as long as the 49ers stay awful, he will have plenty of room to run in the 4th quarter, and opponents will be lulled into sleeping after three quarters of nothing going on. I dunno, I just see a guy with a really high fantasy floor who has outperformed most other QBs when it comes to fantasy production.

6% Owned in Yahoo Leagues

I swear this isn't turning into a waiver wire article - I'm just borrowing a few stats. Taylor Gabriel is owned in only 6% of Yahoo leagues (3% before the game yesterday). He's quietly been the second best WR in all of fantasy over the last 4 weeks, nearly a full point per week ahead of Mike Evans and trailing only Antonio Brown, who just scored another touchdown on his way out of Indianapolis. I'm not saying that this kind of production can keep up, but over the last 4 games, the Falcons have found a guy who knows how to find the end zone. The Falcons have won every game where he has at least 2 catches and are 1-4 when he doesn't. Now if that's not misleadingly insignificant, I don't know what is. Or is it? I've had too much turkey this weekend, and it's going to my head.

Well, last week was a doozy. My Steelers tied the Browns (loss in my book), we had a few injuries, and the leading QB was Fitzmagic. Hopefully you came away with some W’s and made some moves on waivers to improve the squad!

Week 1 recap

Last week, we watched Alfred Morris and Matt Breida vs the Vikings defense. I predicted that Morris would get the goal line work and get into the end zone. Well, I was right in the fact that Morris got the redzone carries, but he fumbled while reaching for the goal line that might have cost the 49ers the game. Carries were pretty evenly split. Brieda had 11 carries for 46 years, and Morris had 12 carries for 38 yards. Missed my prediction as they are still going to be splitting carries, but Morris could be a sneaky flex play this week against the lions.

The second watch-list was on the Indianapolis backfield. Wilkins did get the bulk of the carries and didn’t look too bad considering the OL problems for Indy. He rushed 14 times for 40 yards and caught all three balls coming his way. Signs are pointing to Mack coming back this week so it will be interesting to see how this muddy backfield will work moving forward. A positive was Nyheim Hines. If you are in a PPR league I would urge you to grab Hines. He caught 7 of 9 targets (only 33 yards) but lined up all over the field. Andrew Luck passed the ball 53 times on Sunday. I don’t expect him to throw 50+ every game, but do expect the Colts to be down and relying on Lucks arm to stay in games. 

The final watch-list from week 1 was Aaron Rodgers' targets. I predicted that Allison would be the second highest targeted receiver on the Packers and he was! (tied With Adams who I expected to lead). I was wrong about Cobb. He looked great, and the connection he has with Rodgers can’t be ignored. His ankles look fantastic as well!  Cobb, Allison, and Adams all ended with good fantasy days and touchdowns. Hopefully you grabbed Allison, he has solidified his role in the offense.

Denver Backfield

Royce Freeman was the highest drafted Bronco RB and had a decent first game out there. He rushed 15 times for 71 yards but didn’t have any targets in the passing game. The surprise last week was fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay. Lindsay rushed 15 times for 71 yards and caught 2 passes for 31 yards and a Touchdown. Freeman owners were worried about Booker stealing carries, but now it looks Lindsay is the threat and this is a full-blown committee. It will be interesting to see how the carries are distributed this week against Oakland.

Prediction –Both rookie running backs continue making the most of their time on the field. Lindsay has some flashy plays but Freeman finds the end zone leaving fantasy owners scratching their heads week 3 on who the back to own is in Denver.

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets

 

One of my biggest surprises week 1 was the Jets Lions game. I expected a blowout, but did not expect the Jets to be on the winning end. Except for the very first play, Darnold looked great. He was poised in the pocket and managed the game well. He also targeted Quincy Enunwa 10 times! The next closest Jet had 3 targets. I tried to grab Enunwa everywhere this week as he is Darnold’s first read and should continue to get a good chunk of targets weekly. With Jermaine Kearse coming back this week it’ll be interesting to see how those targets are distributed.

In the Jets backfield, Powell got the start but split carries with Crowell. Powell had 13 rushes for 65 yards and Crowell (CAWWW) had 10 touches for 102 yards and 2 TDs. Most of those yards came in garbage time on a 62-yard TD run, but the Crow looked good! If the offense continues to produce both backs could be viable flex/RB2 plays.

Prediction- With the Dolphins coming to New York, Darnold has another great game but spreads the ball around a bit more this week. Crow finds the end zone twice for the second week in a row and the Jets move to 2-0.

Steelers vs Chiefs

Being a Steeler fan, they are always on my must watch list. This week is special because they are coming off a horrible week 1 and run into an offense that is arguably scary then theirs. Tyreek Hill is a freak. He went 7-169-2 and added another touchdown on a punt return. He is no doubt electric and silenced the few critics out there that didn’t think he could keep up with limited opportunities. We also got a glimpse of Patrick Mahomes cannon. In a game where Kelce and Hunt were quiet, the Chiefs still managed to put up 38 points against a stout Chargers secondary.

On the other side of the fence is the Steelers. After a heart breaking tie to open the season, there is still no Le'Veon Bell. James Conner shined in his first start rushing 31 times for 135 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also caught 5 of 6 targets for 57 yards and is a strong RB1 until Bell decides it’s time to come back. Bell was seen in Miami at a club until the wee hours of the morning on Tuesday so I do not expect that to be anytime soon. Even without Bell, the Steelers have an offense that can keep up with the Chiefs and I expect our Defense to get after Mahomes.

Prediction – In the highest scoring game of the week, the Steelers come away with a win. Antonio Brown is the #1 WR of the week and Kelce and Hunt owners can sleep well with great bounce back performances.

Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!

Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.

If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.

Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!

Cheers,

Drink Five!

Denver Broncos

What’s changed since last year? Let’s start with Joe Flacco as the starting QB of the Broncos, that’ll be interesting. And ringmaster John Elway rolled the dice on another young QB in Drew Lock, selected #42 overall in the rookie draft. They recently picked up the former Lion Theo Riddick, though he has a fractured shoulder to work through (6-8 weeks), but the biggest offensive boon from a fantasy standpoint may come from rookie TE Noah Fant (TE20), who has been compared to a Jimmy Graham / Aaron Hernandez / Eric Ebron type of receiving Tight End.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Broncos’ receivers beyond Emmanuel Sanders (WR45) are a bit of a jumble right now (he’s the only WR on the roster that has had a 45-catch season in the NFL), but signs point to 2^nd year Courtland Sutton (WR38, drafted round 2, 2018) breaking out as he transitions to the #1 WR on the Broncos. 704 yards and 4 TDs on 42 receptions last year could lead to bigger and better, especially since he was pushed in as a rookie to fill the shoes of Demariyus Thomas after Thomas was traded to the Texans in late October.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Although his ADP is still very low, I’m hearing whispers from Denver beat reporters that Royce Freeman (10^th round ADP, RB39) will have an increased workload in 2019 – splitting time or even taking most of Phillip Lindsay’s (5^th round ADP, RB22) short-yardage and goal-line touches. This is not to say that Lindsay won’t have a good season – just that he’s likely being overvalued whereas Freeman should outperform his ADP.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Phillip Lindsay is currently the highest drafted Bronco with an ADP of 42 overall, but I would not consider him a stud – therefore Denver is currently bereft of any surefire game-winning players that you could draft with near 100% certainty in my mind.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? One player that may go undrafted in some leagues but could also fit the ‘sleeper’ tag and will be picked up on the waiver wire at some point during the season (early on, probably) is Daesean Hamilton (20^th round ADP, WR66). Hamilton ended the year averaging 9.5 targets over his last 4 games and will be the primary slot receiver for the Broncos. He could easily eclipse Courtland Sutton (and did last year as Sutton did not take off strong from the starting line), but will never be a #1 receiver (comps to Steve Johnson of the Bills who had several seasons of around 80 receptions for 1000+ yards).

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Noah Fant is more than likely the only rookie this year that will have a fantasy impact. Currently being drafted as the 20^th TE off the board, he will score some TDs and be a waiver wire fill-in at the very least. QB Drew Lock is not likely to play this season unless there is an injury to Joe Flacco, but that’s certainly a possibility, and round 6 WR flier Juwann Winfree is a developmental prospect who could be good down the road but doesn’t profile as impactful this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

What’s changed since last year? The Chiefs picked up WR Mecole Hardman (4.33-second 40-yard dash, yipes! 18^th round ADP, WR61) in round 2, and RB Darwin Thompson (19^th round ADP, RB60) in round 6 this year’s NFL draft. They signed free agent and former Jaguar Carlos Hyde (12^th round ADP, RB44), and they were able to keep Tyreek Hill (ADP 17, WR6) out of jail.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? I would say Sammy Watkins (9^th round ADP, WR34) but he already broke out with over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in 2015. 4^th year WR Demarcus Robinson (ADP 264, WR91) is a possible breakout candidate after the departure of Chris Conley (and previously Albert Wilson). Robinson will be going into a contract year and if Watkins can’t stay healthy again, Robinson should slot right in as the 3^rd option in the passing game, behind Hill and Kelce. He has reportedly been working with Mahomes on deep-ball plays, so that’s certainly promising.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? If you’re paying attention to the current situation at RB, there is a war waging. Rookie Darwin Thompson could challenge Carlos Hyde for the backup role, or even supplant Williams as the starter in Kansas City if he continues to show issues with his hamstring. Thompson flashed some good talent during the first preseason game and the Chiefs have not been particularly loyal to RBs since Andy Reid took the reins. Reid has already stated that a RBBC approach may be the best for this season, casting a shadow over the whole situation. Thompson is a high-risk, high-reward pick.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Chiefs have a player being drafted within the top 15 of every offensive position. In fact, if you take out Damien Williams (ADP 25, RB14), you get 3 guys in Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce that are all arguably top 5. But Mahomes and Kelce both have ADPs of #1 for their respective positions, so they are clearly the answer here. If in a standard draft only starting 1 QB, the most valuable over replacement player (VORP) award goes to Travis Kelce.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? There’s not much to work with here, but again I look at Darwin Thompson as a guy that will likely go undrafted unless chosen as a sleeper, and there is a high likelihood that either Damien Williams or Carlos Hyde have some kind of injury that will allow Thompson to climb up the depth chart, at least for a short time. Whoever the top RBs are on KC on any given Sunday, they will both hold fantasy value.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? I’ve covered Darwin Thompson – Mecole Hardman was being hyped up as a possible Tyreek Hill replacement/fill-in if Hill was to be disciplined by the NFL for issues off the field in the offseason. Hill was not suspended and Hardman will likely not have a fantasy relevant role in the current offense, barring injury, etc.

Los Angeles Chargers

What’s changed since last year? Tyrod Taylor was added and will serve as a great backup QB, and Tyrell Williams was released and picked up by the Raiders. Antonio Gates is again a free agent, and as long as Hunter Henry is healthy, this could be the first season that the Chargers won’t have Gates on their roster since 2003.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? This one is easy. 3^rd year WR Mike Williams (ADP 61, WR25) had 10 TDs in 2018 on 66 targets (43 receptions for 664 yards), but the departure of Tyrell Williams will open more targets for him in the offense immediately. The fact that the Chargers didn’t go out to get more receivers shows trust in his new role as the solid #2 WR. Williams played all 16 games last year after struggling a little with injuries in his rookie season.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Melvin Gordon (ADP 23, RB13) is holding out for a larger contract, and has officially requested a trade out of Los Angeles. Scary stuff. If the two sides come to an agreement and all is well, Austin Ekeler (8^th round ADP, RB34) will still have value as one of the better backups with pass-catching ability out of the backfield, but Justin Jackson (17^th round ADP, RB57) is a sleeper candidate that could give you an RB2/3 with the last pick of the draft. The question is, will Gordon’s situation be resolved or not? It’s currently pushing his ADP down further each week.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The top drafted player on the Chargers is Keenan Allen (ADP 28, WR11), and there is no reason why he shouldn’t finish the season with around 100 receptions, 1200 yards, and 6 TDs, just as he has for the previous two seasons. He has also not missed a game since 2016. Draft Allen confidently in all formats.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Travis Benjamin (ADP 291, WR99) should be able to secure the #3 WR spot behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and in an offense where Phillip Rivers has thrown for more than 4,000 yards 6 years in a row, Benjamin could absolutely be a waiver wire fill-in as a WR4/5 in some weeks this season.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Chargers drafted QB Easton Stick in round 5 as a developmental pick and possible successor to Phillip Rivers, but he’s not fantasy relevant at this point. No other offensive picks to mention this year.

Oakland Raiders

What’s changed since last year? There’s been quite a few changes in Oakland – perhaps they’re getting ready for the big change to Las Vegas, but I digress. The big move for the Raiders was to acquire Antonio Brown from the Steelers for a 3^rd and 5^th round pick. At the time, it seemed like a steal. Now it seems like the Steelers might have the last laugh. They also signed Tyrell Williams, formerly of the Chargers. Derek Carr’s favorite target last season, Jared Cook, is no longer on the team – but I think the new toys at WR should go a long way in consoling him. Finally, the Raiders used one of their three first round picks on a RB, Josh Jacobs from Alabama.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? The best breakout contender on the Raiders is JJ Nelson. This doesn’t mean that we’ve forgotten Tyrell Williams, it’s just that he basically already broke out in 2016 with over 1000 yards. But back to Nelson – he’s a burner who was drafted to the Cardinals back when Bruce Arians was the coach. He fits systems where you can go deep and take shots down the field. That’s not quite what the Raiders have been in the past, but with the other additions at WR, it’s certainly the direction that the team is heading this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Currently, Hunter Renfrow (ADP 375, WR113) is not being drafted, but could find his way into a big role this season. As long as he’s not singing, he has looked pretty good on Hard Knocks and seems to be incorporated into the offense already. It helps that basically every WR is new to the team this year. Renfrow is listed on the depth chart as the starting slot receiver, so expect him to see some looks early, especially since Carr likes to throw it over the middle.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Based on the advice of our resident Raiders expert, Tad Bukowski, he has stated firmly and unequivocally that Antonio Brown is still the stud WR that we all remember from years past. He’s currently sitting at ADP 22 (WR11) which is his cheapest draft cost since he was a rookie. Of course, that’s due to his new surroundings, but hey, AB is AB and it’s hard to argue against his six straight seasons with over 100 catches. He’s scored 67 touchdowns during that time as well.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Two guys that you can check out – Hunter Renfrow mentioned above) and Darren Waller, who was signed off the Ravens practice squad. Waller is currently the starting TE on the depth chart and has an ADP of 322 (TE27), so he’s likely to be a streaming TE option for the early part of the season. If he can fill the Jared Cook role from last season, then Waller is going to be fantasy relevant for sure. As for Renfrow, he will likely be on the waiver wire unless there’s a Raiders fan in your league – but he isn’t likely to stay there long.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The two main rookies on this team are Josh Jacobs (ADP 36, RB21) and Hunter Renfrow. The rest of the early picks the Raiders had were for the defense. Jacobs should lead the backfield in carries this season and is currently looked at as an RB2/3 and will likely be in most starting fantasy lineups this season. Renfrow has a ways to go to be fantasy relevant this season, but he is Tad’s pick on the Raiders to rise the ranks quickly and be a contributor to this offense.