Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

5/13/14, 2014 Draft - I Have a Pork Headache, All the Manziels, Trial by Combat

It's hockey night! Of course I wish that were true, and it's probably Dave's biggest nightmare (the drinkfive Hockey Podcast). As I write this, the Hawks are in OT in Game 6 of the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, and I've still got the draft on my mind. On tonight's episode, we started diving into the draft with two of the top 3 QB's taken.

We got into the latest episode of Game of Thrones, and got to some legitimate prognostication, as we're firmly entrenched in some material that Dave has never read. We're excited for the rest of the season, check out my review of this week's episode here.

Next week make sure you guys join us because we'll get really far into all the fantasy relevant rookies with our Rookie Expert, Shawn Foss. We get a chance to pick his brain, so make sure you call in or ask questions in the chat room. We'll be back with more beer, more football, and probably more pork.

Make sure to join us next week, live at 9pm CST on blogtalk radio (www.blogtalkradio.com/drinkfive). You can now sign up for our newsletter on the side panel of our website. We will send you direct updates during the season including all the info you need to set your lineups. Send us your questions and we'll answer them on the podcast. Ask us on our Facebook page, follow us on twitter (@drinkfive), or send us an e-mail to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also grab the podcast on iTunes.

Each week we discuss the best waiver moves to make on teams that need a leg up, positional depth or just to pick up that guy that fell through the cracks for no apparent reason. Moving into the playoffs now (in most fantasy leagues), it's important to balance consistency and upside on your roster as well as looking ahead to the match-ups over the next few weeks. Listen up for some big tips on players that are not owned by the majority of teams out there (50% owned or less).

QB:

Johnny Manziel (vs. IND, 13% owned)
First, understand that you should not be switching up your QB in most situations: this is only really a viable strategy if you have been streaming QBs in a deep league, or some catastrophic injury has occured to your #1 guy. Second, there is not yet a guarantee that Manziel starts over Hoyer or that - even if he does - he plays the whole game. Yes, you should be starting at least 15 or 16 guys over Manziel including such stunners as Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Andy Dalton. All of that said, Manziel is the type of player that can score multiple touchdowns while still racking up the rushing and passing yardage. Like him or not, that means fantasy points.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (@JAX, 8% owned)
Fitzpatrick could be the smartest guy in football, but I don't believe that he has suddenly figured it all out. His success last week (358yds, 6TDs) had a lot to do with momentum and timing but you can't discount such a good performance with out wondering what happens next. Personally, I feel like Fitzpatrick can make some good throws but his team has never really clicked on all levels before like Houston is starting to. We all know about J.J. Watt's sudden emergence as a pass-catcher and have seen Hopkins break out this year the way he was supposed to in 2013. Not to mention such targets as Arian Foster and Andre Johnson are still very much Houston Texans. I don't think Fitz will be able to keep up the numbers, but I do think he'll throw for 200+ and at least 2 TDs against the Jaguars this week.

WR:

Charles Johnson (vs. NYJ, 18% owned)
We've been patiently waiting for someone on the Vikings to develop as the #1 WR and supplant Greg Jennings. It looked for a little while that Jarius Wright would be the guy and while he did perform well for a time, he never really developed a great sense of chemistry with Teddy Bridgewater and was too undersized (5'10") to succeed in some match-ups. The 6'2" Johnson runs a 4.39 40 and his other measurables are up to par as one of the new prototypical WRs in the NFL. He has played almost every snap over the last two weeks and has led the Vikings in targets. He hasn't had a true breakout game yet (best was 6 receptions for 87 yards in Week 11 @CHI), but I can see one coming with week against the Jets. Stick him in your lineup as a WR3! This is probably a one-game production, though, since the Vikings next two games are against Detroit and Miami.
Stedman Bailey (@WAS, 2% owned)
Another player trending up toward the end of the season is Stedman Bailey. Here is a deep sleeper that has woken up over the past three games with 15 receptions for over 200 yards and a TD when he had only caught the football 5 times prior to that in the season. With fellow Rams Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin only catching 2 or 3 balls per game, Bailey has no signs of slowing down against a Redskins' defense that gives up almost 24 points per game to WRs. Keep in mind that the #1 WR on the Rams this year has switched as many times as their QBs, but obviously this pick does not come without risk. In a standard scoring league this week I would rank Johnson over Bailey in Week 14, but Bailey higher over the rest of the season.

RB:

Daniel Herron (@CLE, 48% owned)
Trent Richardson has been treading water since late last year - this season he has scored a few TDs but has never rushed for more than 79 yards, despite enjoying two games with upwards of 20 carries. With Ahmad Bradshaw out for the season, Daniel "Boom" Herron moved in and has already outshined Richardson in his performances over the past two weeks. Look for Herron to continue starting at RB with a good chance to score each week. The Trent Richardson situation is an unfortunate one, but now is the time to jump on Herron for the rest of the year - as we have learned from Denver, a decent RB in a great offense will produce fantasy points, more often than not.

Johnathan Stewart (@NO, 27% owned)
The latest news is that DeAngelo Williams may not play this week with a fratured finger, and if so Johnathan Stewart should get the majority of the carries for the Panthers against the Saints. With the Saints giving up over 21 points per game to opposing RBs, this match-up looks pretty attractive on paper. Stewart has been almost flexworthy in the past 3 games, averaging almost 10 points per game in standard scoring leagues. If ever was the time to roll the dice on Stewart, it would be this week. As long as Williams doesn't play this week, Stewart is looking at between 12 and 15 carries, several receptions and a high possibility of a TD.

TE:

Jordan Reed (vs. STL, 50% owned)
At the upper end of our spectrum, Reed is owned by 50% of Yahoo leagues mostly because of the people that help onto him after drafting him high at the beginning of the season. A physically gifted TE, Reed has shown last season that he is great when healthy and being targeted by his QB. Finally, he showed up again in Week 13 @IND, putting up 9 receptions for 123 yards. Reed hasn't hit paydirt yet, but the situation is likely with McCoy targeting him heavily and the Redkins going up against a Rams' defense that can stick it to the QB. Look for at least 7 or 8 receptions again in this one.

Tim Wright (@SD, 34% owned)
This one is a special mention - it's undeniably difficult to predict when some of the talented offensive players on the Patriots will have big games. The Patriots play the Chargers in Week 14, who are one of the best teams against TEs in the entire league.. but because I think most of the coverage will be centered around Gronkowski, I'm betting that Wright has several receptions and a sneaky TD. This is a dicey play though, make no mistake - Wright either scores more than 10, or less than 2.

Defense / Special Teams:

MIN (vs. NYJ), STL (@WAS), NO (vs. CAR)

Each week we discuss the best waiver moves to make on teams that need a leg up, positional depth or just to pick up that guy that fell through the cracks for no apparent reason. Now that we're in the midst of the 2014 fantasy playoffs, every point counts. This week's edition of waiver wire pickups will offer up a few of the players that have the most upside possible while hoping to avoid any fantasy fool's gold.

QB:

Johnny Manziel (vs. CIN, 23% owned)

Once again, it is really only in deep leagues, 2 QB leagues and/or dynasty/keeper leagues that we need to talk about picking up QBs on the wire - and in order to get to this point, you must have had at least a serviceable QB for most of the way. Anyway, Manziel finally looks to be getting a crack at the starting QB gig in Cleveland and for what could be a very tough divisional game with the Bengals no less. Normally I would avoid playing a QB against the Cincy defense here, who have not given up many points to opposing signal callers this year.. I love new, unpredictable QBs, however.. and the Bengals have not had much success keeping opposing RBs under control. The gameplan here will probably be to maintain a run-heavy offense and keep the defense on their toes with a mobile QB and Josh Gordon, to boot. I can see the Bengals winning this game, but not without getting burned 2 or 3 times by JFF.

Alex Smith (vs. OAK, 36% owned)

I was wrong about Fitzpatrick last week, I'll admit - sometimes it's too easy to get caught up in the implied momentum that a player may have.. generally I'll call that Fantasy Fool's Gold - that is, where a player performs very well for 1 or 2 games in a row and then falls flat on their face. Andre Holmes, Allen Hurns and in some respects Branden Oliver all belong to that category of player this year as well as many others. There's a reason why we talk about and dig into trends on the show - and that is players are much less likely to disappoint when you need them to perform if they are on a longer trajectory of successful production. Alex Smith has put up consistent, above average points over the past 3 weeks and the Chiefs visit to Oakland should provide more of the same. That's right, Alex Smith is officially above the Andy Dalton line (which is about 15 points, I think. Jason?) for the remainder of the season.

WR:

Charles Johnson (@DET, 20% owned)

We recommended Johnson last week and he certainly paid off for those of you that may have slotted him into Week 14 lineups. 4 receptions for 103 yards and 1 TD on 8 targets tells us that Johnson is going to stay the WR1 on the Vikings (over Jennings and Patterson), and enjoy the lion's share of the work each week. Here's a guy who has great measurables and would have had his breakout game last week but fumbled a 2nd possible TD at the goal-line. The tough question becomes, do you play him against the Lions? Minnesota has looked better recently but even far more prepared NFL clubs have been made to look silly by the Detroit defense. That said, he's still going to get the most targets in this game, and is still playable as a WR3 or FLEX against the Lions.

Marqise Lee (@BAL, 4% owned)

With Cecil Shorts generally unproductive and the impressive rookie Allen Robinson on injured reserve, the bright spots in the Jags' receiving core are some combination of Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns. Of those two, Lee has been more productive recently. Over the past 3 games, he has put up 14 receptions for 194 yards and 1 TD. The Ravens are actually giving up the most points of any team to opposing WRs due to some major injuries in their secondary, so I would advise Lee as the sneakiest play out there this week. Almost guaranteed to be available in redraft leagues, Lee could easily put up great numbers in garbage time.

Fool's Gold:

Donte Moncrief, Stedman Bailey

RB:

Chris Johnson (@TEN, 48% owned)

What is this, 2009? With Jonathan Stewart and Chris Johnson both performing at a higher level than normal, it's easy to forget that they have too often been a fantasy wasteland in the past. Still, all that matters in these last few games of the season is their production NOW. Johnson meets back up with his previous team and may have a little more motivation than normal to perform well. We've been watching him climb back up to a full split with Chris Ivory and a couple of his runs over the past two weeks looked really nice. I'm tempted to call Fool's Gold on Johnson but I won't - I think he continues his recent production for one more game against the Titans' awful rushing defense. Mark him down this week for what will only be his 3rd TD of 2014.

Jonathan Stewart (@TB, 41% owned)

Talk about trending up - Stewart is one guy (along with Daniel "Boom" Herron) that we were really pushing in Week 14. Really the only thing that could get in his way at this point is if DeAngelo Williams does end up playing - Rivera doesn't care what Stewart's statline looks like and [as we all should know by now] you don't play a RB if they're part of an active 3-headed monster. But they do play Tampa Bay this week and Cam Newton may or may not be playing depending on the speed of his recovery from a car accident earlier today.. both things that slightly tilt the scale in Stewart's favor.

Fool's Gold:

James Starks, Montee Ball

TE:

Mychal Rivera (@KC, 24% owned)

After the top few tight ends, it just gets messy. At this point, you really need to take a look at the scheme that you're going up against in order to pick the right guy. Guys like Coby Fleener, Delanie Walker and Travis Kelce have really taken a step up in consistency but if you're reading this section of the waiver wire pickups.. you probably can't get one of those guys from the wire. Mychal Rivera has not been consistent but the Raiders play the Chiefs in Week 15, who have one of the league's best passing defenses. What does this mean? Derek Carr is going to dink and dunk his way to a good game this week for Rivera. Definitely more valuable in PPR leagues, though.

Fool's Gold:

Jared Cook

Defense / Special Teams:

BAL (vs. JAX), KC (vs. OAK), CAR (vs. TAM), NYG (vs. WAS), NYJ (@TEN)

The end of the road for most fantasy teams is this week's championship game. Listening to the right advice can make or break your team and I'd like to try to help you across the finish line by providing you with a few great plays for Week 16. As always, quite a few guys that may have been helping you throughout the season are probably headed to IR or underperforming at this point in the season. So who do we turn to? Let's find out..

QB:

The drop-off for QB ownership is a steep one. Right around Andy Dalton, QBs are either quite a bit better or quite a bit worse. Actually, let's include Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez in that.. we can call it the 'QB Triangle'. If one of these guys is your starter (in 1, or 2 QB leagues), you've got serious problems to address. Although I think that Johnny Manziel (37% owned) will have a good performance eventually, he looked sufficiently bad for me to avoid him for the remainder of the season at least. Alex Smith (37% owned) on the other hand, had a great game with 297 yards and 2 TDs against the Raiders. Smith has been a consistent member of the drinkfive waiver wire list and should continue to do well against the Steelers pass defense which is still susceptible to big plays on the outside.  Smith has more points this season than Kaepernick or Dalton and almost as many as Newton and Romo. If you need help at the position, don't sleep on him.

WR:

Much like the 'QB' triangle, we have a similar collection of players that should not be owned in Cordarelle Patterson, Denard Robinson and We Welker all hovering around the 50% mark. But can we find some real talent at the position if we dig a little deeper? Well, once more, Charles Johnson (32% owned) had a good game and put up 5 receptions for 72 yards against the great Lions pass defense. Remember that he's a rookie, but with this year's draft class.. why not another standout receiver? Clearly the Vikes' #1 guy at this point, look for a similar performance but with a great chance of a TD against a slipping Dolphins pass defense this week. Harry Douglas (27% owned) is an interesting pickup if he's still available in your league, because he had a great game and Julio Jones may be out again this week. Although Coach Mike Smith says he expects him to suit up - he is not to be trusted. I keep hearing Cecil Shorts (41% owned) and Stedman Bailey (14% owned) but I don't believe it and you shouldn't either. Both guys are too unpredictable this year and on teams that are equally difficult to predict.

RB:

Now that we're comparing what players exist around that 50% mark at each position, let's look at RBs. Got any guesses? Due to dual-eligibility, Denard Robinson is here again of course, but not including Robinson we have Doug Martin, Ben Tate and Terrance West. What a great collection of running backs that is! The decline in ownership is much less steep but we can definitely pull some talent out of the pool here. Carlos Hyde (35% owned) was running very well last week before hurting his back on a play. Looks like he'll play ahead of Gore at this point, though. He is worth a pickup in every league, even if you're not going to start him.. just so your opponent can't start him against you. With Gore likely out with a concussion, Hyde will monopolize the carries if he plays. Kerwynn Williams (18% owned) was an unlikely candidate to perform well last week due to a committee backfield and good Rams' rushing defense, but he still went off for 75 yards on 15 carries and caught 2 passes for 11 yards. Grice looks to be a non-factor and Stepfan Taylor will split the carries but Williams is the better bet for a TD. Bad news? Seattle. And they've been playing well. I like Williams but would stay away from this situation unless you're desperate.

TE:

Yeah I know, you just can't wait.. ok, I'll tell you. The 50%'ers at TE this season are Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph and Charles Clay. Wow, a couple of those guys were definitely taken pretty high up in drafts this preseason. Moving on, Mychal Rivera (26% owned) is still not owned in many leagues this year and presents a good option about 1/2 of the time. Better in PPR leagues because of the volume he gets, Rivera is still a good bit better than the TEs owned less than him. Jermaine Gresham (9% owned) just scored a TD last week and has been getting consistent targets all year. Also, he plays against Denver who has given up quite a few points to opposing TEs. Unfortunately, he was inactive for last week's game against the Browns even though he was warming up on the field. Apparently some kind of toe injury, reports say that Gresham should be starting again against the Broncos in Week 16. I actually like him a lot here if you think he'll be a go.

Defense / Special Teams:

Here I like  Carolina (vs. CLE), Miami (vs. MIN), Green Bay (@TB) and Jacksonville (vs. TEN)