Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Matthew Stafford: Wk 8 @ ATL – 20.90 pts, Wk 10 vs MIA – 18.10 pts, Wk 11 @ ARI – 6.32 pts

Over the last three weeks, Stafford has gone up against one poor defense and two excellent ones. Stafford isn’t really putting up the numbers this year that we’ve come to expect out of him, but his team is also rather weird (as is tradition in Detroit) and he’s had some injury issues to the WR group. Stafford might have another tough matchup on Sunday in New England, but his matchups for the rest of the season look awesome. Home vs CHI, TB and MIN, then @ CHI for week 16.

Dave predicted he would go over 18 points, Jason said he’d stay under 18. Stafford and the entire Lions team really struggled against New England. Detroit did not score a TD, Stafford was held to 264 yds passing, completing 18 of 46 passes (39%) and 1 INT. Stafford only scored 11.36 points in a standard league, and Dave will drink five!

Golden Tate: Wk 8 @ ATL – 21.10 pts, Wk 10 vs MIA – 10.90 pts, Wk 11 @ ARI – 4.90 pts

OK, so this one should be obvious, right? Tate obviously did well with Megatron out, and now that he’s back he’ll be on the back burner. But then why did he get 13 targets Week 10? So then you say: “Yes of course, it’s because Stafford has been struggling”. But then does that mean Tate will rebound? As I said earlier, the Lions have a rather cushy schedule going forward, including next week for Tate, since Calvin Johnson will be spending the weekend on Revis Island. We’ll have to see if said island is a retreat or a place with no refuge. The latter ought to benefit Tate a lot.

Like with Stafford, Dave predicted over 12 points, Jason stayed under 12. Tate struggled like everyone else on the Lions last week, catching only 4 out of 11 targets. Those 4 receptions for 97 yards, plus a 13 yard rush put Tate up to 11 points. Dave definitely needs to drink for this one, but I can raise my glass with him since it’s nearly a push.

Torrey Smith: Wk 8 @ CIN – 0.00 pts, Wk 9 @ PIT – 12.30 pts, Wk 10 vs TEN – 13.50 pts

Torrey smith has put up his 4 highest scoring games during the last 5 games he’s played. Of course, the odd game out was a goose-egg, which nobody likes to see. The question here is definitely about Torrey’s trend though, will it continue in the double digits, or will he lost ground to Steve Smith like at the beginning of the season. Steve has really struggled, putting up less than 10 points over the last 3 games (combined total!). There’s no lack of targets for Steve Smith, which isn’t great for Torrey, but Torrey is finding the end zone and is amazing at drawing DPI penalties, which means that Flacco will keep throwing it deep to him, at least a couple of times per game.

We both agreed on Smith for Week 12, both of us predicting he will score 10 or more points. I suppose we’ll need to raise our glasses for this one. Smith secured 5 out of 6 targets for 98 yards, giving him 9.8 points total. He’s 0.2 points shy of our prediction, so let’s just call this one a social. Torrey seems to be resuming his role as the deep/intermediate guy in the offense, but is still splitting targets with Steve Smith, 6 targets for each on Monday night.

Andre Ellington: Wk 9 @ DAL – 19.40pts, Wk 10 vs STL – 10.20pts, Wk 11 vs DET 6.60 pts

Ellington has had a few rough matchups the last couple of weeks, and his schedule does not get any easier. While Ellington IS the de facto #1 RB on a team that is 9-1, he is clearly not matchup proof like a Demarco Murray or Jamaal Charles. Ellington has matchups coming up @Sea, @Atl, vs KC, @ Stl and vs Sea. There’s only one defense that’s not in the top 10 in there. Just for icing on the cake, he faces San Francisco in week 17 for those of you who are still going then. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed yet, this may be a guy to consider selling.

Boy, I’m on a roll for Week 12. Dave predicted that Ellington would go over 11 points, I said he’d stay under 11 against a tough Seattle defense. Ellington had a tough day, gaining only 24 yards on 10 rushes, adding 5 receptions for 39 yards. Ellington’s 6.30 points is well below the projection, so Dave, drink five more!

Mark Ingram: Wk 9 @ CAR – 23.00pts, Wk 10 vs SF – 13.90 pts, Wk 11 vs CIN – 9.70pts

Ingram has been the beneficiary of injuries to other RB’s on his team and it’s translated directly into touches. Ingram has averaged 26 carries per game over the last four games and he’s definitely produced during that time. The problem here may lie with the team. When the Saints are winning, they are running the ball a lot more effectively, though clearly they will run the ball whether or not they are winning. Assuming Robinson and Thomas are out again this week, Ingram will see his usual workload facing a Ravens defense that gives up the fewest points to opposing RB’s. The rest of Ingram’s schedule is much kinder, with games @ Pit, vs Car, @ Chi and vs Atl in week 16.

Ingram was just as disappointing as Ellington and also had to go up against a good defense. We both predicted that Ingram would go below 14 points, but c’mon Ingram, couldn’t you have just gotten into the end zone and put up 9 points? I don’t take this stuff personally at all…that’s what I have to tell myself anyways. We’ll assign the listeners to drink for this one since Ingram managed only 4.20 points, well below the recent average.

Martellus Bennett: Finally, on the spur of the moment last week, we looked at Martellus Bennett’s downward trend. We both said that he’d stay under 7 points, a good bet with the Bears’ recent struggles. Bennett wound up with just 4 receptions for 37 yards and is firmly off of the TE1 fantasy radar.

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 12 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Ryan Tannehill: Wk 10 @ DET – 11.28 pts, Wk 11 vs BUF – 16.80 pts, Wk 12 @ DEN – 27.6 pts

We tend to always look at the downward trends, but let’s start off with an upward trend. Tannehill has gotten through a tough stretch and had a great showing last week against a tough Denver defense. Tannehills remaining schedule is split. This week he faces the Jets, then has to face Baltimore and New England, before getting Minnesota in Week 16. Our question, though, is for Week 13. Will Tannehill score 20 or more points (yahoo projection)? The Jets are giving up 21 points/game to opposing QB’s.

John Brown: Wk 10 vs STL – 13.30 pts, Wk 11 vs DET – 6.90, Wk 12 @ SEA – 6.10 pts

Brown has really been flashy for the Cardinals, but not consistent at all. He is very touchdown dependent so far this year. With Fitzgerald out of the lineup, it was expected that Brown would pick up the slack, but that wasn’t the case last week. Brown has a plus matchup this week in Atlanta, but then faces KC, @ STL and SEA to finish off your fantasy season. This guy has fool’s gold written all over him. We’ll set the over/under at 8 points.

LeSean McCoy: Wk 10 vs CAR – 7.70 pts, Wk 11 @ GB – 10.60 pts, Wk 12 vs TEN – 19.10 pts

McCoy has definitely not lived up to his expectations this season. He had an ADP of 1, but is 14^th overall for RB points. McCoy struggled at the beginning of the year with a constantly changing offensive line, it has really solidified in the last few weeks. McCoy is trending up, but has not broken 20 points in a single game all season. With Sproles in there vulturing touchdowns and Polk spelling him, is McCoy ever going to return to his former status as the top back in the league? This week he faces Dallas on Thanksgiving, a team with a vastly improved (though still middle of the pack) run defense. We’ll set the over/under at 12 points.

Frank Gore: Wk 10 @ NO – 14.30 pts, Wk 11 @ NYG – 9.40 pts, Wk 12 vs WAS – 1.60 pts

Gore is pointed in the wrong direction. Though he’s had plenty of work the last three weeks, 55 carries total, he’s only managed 212 yards in that stretch which is good for only 3.85 yards per carry. Getting a solid 18+ carries per game should spell success for a back like Gore, but the 49ers offense has really struggled lately. Gore plays host to Seattle this week, and has games coming up in Oakland, Seattle and home against the Chargers. We’ll set the over/under on Gore at 8.50 points.

Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts

Wright had a great game against the Lions, outscoring even the great Gronk. Why do I include a player such as Tim Wright in this list? Frankly, I don’t like starting tight ends that are going to catch a TD or do nothing, so why is he relevant? He is currently the most picked up TE in yahoo leagues. If you need to pick up a TE, you probably need to win since it’s Week 13. Tim Wright cannot be relied upon to be the guy who helps you win. Instead look elsewhere for guys like Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Cameron or Delanie Walker if you have to fill a need at TE. We’ll set the over/under at 6.10 points for Wright.

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 13 and we will recap the results next week.

John Brown, a man of action -- a man who would not be deterred from his mission of abolishing slavery. Crap, wrong John Brown.  But like the former John Brown, John Brown is a man of action and is also on a mission. Brown is an interesting target and has been climbing up draft boards over the last month. His ADP has gone from the 10th round, to the 7th. Heck, I have seen him go as early as the 5th!

History:

Brown is from the college football powerhouse of Pittsburgh State. Fine, maybe not a powerhouse college but he is the all time leader of the Gorillas in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. I will not even begin to get into the countless awards and the recognition he gained for his work on Special Teams. John Brown was drafted by the Cardinals in 2014 in the third round (91st overall) and had a 48/696/5 stat line last year.

 
In the off-season, Brown actually lived and worked out with Carson Palmer. They worked on getting their timing down and getting on the same page. This is nice to hear and see. Both players are committed to getting better in 2015 and Brown can learn a lot from a veteran like Palmer. It was also reported that Brown put on 10lbs in an effort to shed press coverage.

Outlook:

With a year under his belt and having adjusted more to the NFL's level of play, the Cardinals are going to find more ways to get the ball into Brown’s hands. Last season he only rushed 3 times for -6 yards. There will be more reverses and quick screens to get the ball to the speedster. With Fitzgerald drawing attention from defenses and Floyd missing fingers, watch out for Brown. If Palmer stays healthy, all signs point to him having a great season.

Bold Prediction Stat Line: 85/1050/9

Week 10 is in the books and we’re now into the final week of teams being on bye. In Week 11, we won’t have the services of the Steelers, Giants, Saints and Browns. Those guys have played 10 weeks in a row, they deserved this break. It’s certainly a much more convenient break than in week 4.

This week we still like Kirk Cousins, despite his tough matchup vs the Panthers. Now, we’re not crazy, and only advocating him as a QB2. Cousins has a good rhythm with TE Jordan Reed and RB Matt Jones and just got DeSean Jackson back, who should be fully back into the offense this week. As far as QB2’s go, don’t drink the Mark Sanchez kool-aid. Remember, this is Mr. Butt Fumble, so don’t go chasing what you think the Eagles offense is supposed to be and remember that Sanchez is average at best.

Jonathan Stewart may be a smart sit for you this week. The Redskins are in the bottom half of the league giving up points to opposing RB’s, and Stewart hasn’t done much to impress this season, only going over 100 yards once. He’s a heaping pile of “OK”, getting 20+ touches each of the last 5 weeks and never going off with them. His 3.9 yards per attempt tells much of the story, as do his measly 8 receptions. Stewart is simply in Carolina to hold on to the ball and chew the clock. That being said, he’s a borderline RB2/3, so a flex play is still acceptable.

John Brown could be in for a big week if Michael Floyd is out. Brown needs to practice this week, but if he does and Floyd does not, he’s ready to go as a WR2. Carson Palmer throws the ball deep as much or more than any QB in the league, so Brown has a very high ceiling for a low end WR2. On the other hand, you have Davante Adams, who when given 21 targets in a game, still only puts up 7.9 fantasy points. Adams is averaging 10.1 yards per reception, lower than most TE’s and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet. Find someone else to start in place of Adams until he can get going with Rodgers, which seems less and less likely as the season goes on.

The fantasy playoffs are in full swing, and hopefully your team is still alive and kicking. If you didn’t make it this far, you can commiserate with Mike and figure out what to do next. For the rest of us, we have to replace our Daltons, Blounts and Yeldons and move on to week 15.

Philip Rivers stands out this week as a bounce back prospect in 2 QB leagues. If only for pride, the Chargers should be able to take care of business at home against Miami, a team that can’t get much right at all.

The flipside of that same coin, or game, if you will, is Ryan Tannehill. Up against one of the worst passing defenses in the league last week, he only managed 236 yds and 1 TD. Keep him on your bench if you have any hopes of playing in week 16.

Danny Woodhead is a sneaky flex start this week, based on the terrible Miami rushing defense. Woodhead should be able to gain at least 100 yards from scrimmage and will find the end zone against a bad Dolphins defense.

Shaun Draughn is a guy who keeps finding himself high up in the ECR (expert consensus rankings), but doesn’t produce much at all. In a great matchup last week in Cleveland, he had a measly 43 rush yards. Keep him on the bench this week against the Bengals.

My numbers say that you should start a guy like Travis Benjamin this week as a low-end WR3, but I’m just going to remind everyone that that game will have Manziel facing the Seahawks defense in Seattle. Don’t bother starting any Browns unless you have to. Stick to your guns and the guys who got you there!

Make sure that John Brown finds his way into your lineup. He’s fully healthy again and the Cardinals defense has been one of the most consistent in the league all year. It doesn’t hurt that they play the Eagles this week, the team that gives up the most points to opposing WR’s.