Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

A few more injuries (Saquon Barkley, T.Y. Hilton, Vance McDonald) and upsets (Falcons, Eagles, Seahawks, Bucs) later, and we're on to Week 4. After some tweaks to the rankings this week, a few players stand out for me among the rest as guys that are currently a little underrated: Daniel Jones, Joe Mixon, Darrel Williams, and Kenny Stills, to name a few. 

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

One more week in the books and we had some predictable outcomes - most notably on Monday Night Football with the Chiefs just tearing it up offensively. Hello, Patrick Mahomes! A few rookie wide receiver breakouts (here's looking at you, Justin Jefferson), and injuries are important to keep in mind as we go through another cycle of waiver wire pickups and lineups being set for Week 4. Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube (just starting this week, actually!) weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Drew Brees, Joe Mixon, Kenny Golladay, Julian Edelman, Tyler Eifert, and New Orleans (DST).

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Week 4 was not kind to many across the league. Only one undefeated team remains, Tom Brady barely escaped Foxboro with a victory, Matt Nagy has saved his job for another week, Urban Meyer might have lost his job (certainly his locker room), and we learned that even domes can have weather delays. Not sure who to thank for that last one, probably El Niño. Regardless, let's get updated on what you need to know going in to Week 5.

• Jimmy Garoppolo was initially thought to have a multi-week calf injury and exited Sunday’s game after a lackluster performance. Garoppolo has not been very good this year, not topping 20 fantasy points in any game. NBC Sports Edge even went as far as to speculate that Garoppolo had played his last snap with the 49ers immediately after the game. Trey Lance threw a pair of TDs, threw for 157 yards and rushed for an additional 41. The news on Tuesday was that the injury to Garoppolo is not as bad as they thought, and that he might play Week 5 against the Cardinals. Frankly, I can’t understand why they would rush him back to play in that situation when the 49ers are on bye the following week. Trey Lance is probably their best chance in a shootout and in my opinion SHOULD be the starter.

• Josh Gordon is back!!! He was probably already picked up in your league by that one guy who is still living in 2013. Tuesday, he was promoted to the 53-man roster on the Chiefs and is worth a stash spot on your bench since he’s on the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league. 

• David Montgomery is going to be out 4-5 weeks which should land him on the IR, providing a little bit of roster relief for those leagues that are taking advantage of the new rules. Montgomery had a huge share of the Bears rushing attempts, and also had his best game on Sunday, running up over 100 yards and 2 TDs. This loss is definitely going to hurt and I don’t expect there to be a direct replacement for him. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert will fill in for him while he’s gone, with Williams likely to get the majority of the work.

• Teddy Bridgewater left the game at halftime on Sunday and entered concussion protocol. Going into week 4, he was averaging 17.6 points per game, which put him right at the end of superflex startability. Now Drew Lock is going to start if Teddy can’t go and that feels like a downgrade for all fantasy players on the Broncos.

• Joe Mixon has an ankle injury. Initially, it was thought that he would be week-to-week, but now it appears that he’ll be day-to-day, so keep an eye on his practice status throughout the week. Of course, last year he was week-to-week in Week 5 and didn’t play again that season, so take all of this with a grain of salt. Mixon was playing over 75% of his team’s snaps, and now Samaje Perine will have to fill that role.

• Will Fuller has a broken finger and is considered week-to-week. This has been a frustrating start to his first season in Miami. For now, cut him loose and look for your fantasy points somewhere other than the Dolphins passing game.

• Logan Thomas is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Thomas was a popular draft pick this year who actually showed up and played well. His loss is tough, especially the zero points he got for you in Week 4. You’re better off streaming a TE from another team than trying to replace him with Ricky Seals-Jones.

• DJ Chark is going to the IR after breaking his ankle last Thursday night. Chark was off to a good start, playing on over 80% of snaps in the first 3 games, scoring 2 TDs and averaging 22 yards per reception. Now his absence should bump up the production numbers for Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault as the Jaguars get their passing offense going. 

That's it for this week! Make sure to join us live on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Wednesday at 9pm CST. Bring us your lineup questions, trade evaluations, and things you generally need advice on in your life. We're guaranteed not to make it any worse than it already is.

Bring out your dead! It's one of the worst weeks in recent memory in the NFL for injuries (please don't count them on me), so let's have a not-so-quick roundup of all of the fantasy relevant guys who we need to monitor going in to Week 6.

Quarterbacks

• Russell Wilson - Wilson’s injury on Thursday night prevented him from completing the game. He has a torn tendon as well as a fracture/dislocation of his middle finger on his throwing hand. He had surgery to repair it and is expected to be out until Week 10 at the earliest. Seattle has a bye in Week 9. In relief, Geno Smith immediately led the Seahawks on a 98 yard scoring drive, so that was encouraging. The Seahawks fantasy players remain startable, but get a bit of a downgrade across the board. Geno Smith should be picked up in superflex leagues as bye weeks are going to start hitting everybody.

• Daniel Jones - Jones suffered a concussion and was visibly woozy/dazed/stumbling on the field after the play. He was later carted off the field and Mike Glennon finished the game. Glennon finished the game with enough passing action to encourage you to start Kadarius Toney, and possibly Sterling Shepard if he returns. Jones did not practice today but is apparently “on track with everything” according to head coach Joe Judge. Jones returning is a bump for Toney, Booker and Shepard, the only likely fantasy starters on the Giants.

• Trey Lance - Lance suffered a sprained knee on Sunday. So far, his timeline is very murky because the 49ers have a bye this week, so are not required to report any injury statuses. Jimmy G could return based on Lance’s play as a passer this year so far, so this situation is clear as mud. Pay attention to who’s practicing with the ones next week to see who the starter will be in Week 7.

• Tom Brady - Oh if wishing could make it true. But seriously, Tom Brady hurt his thumb and has a quick turnaround on Thursday night. All reports indicate that he’s not 100% but will be starting tomorrow. Right now that offense is working at nearly peak efficiency, so even 75% of Tom Brady should result in plenty of fantasy production from the normal guys.

Running Backs

• Saquon Barkley - Barkley had a sprained ankle that swelled up pretty quick and was on display for TV on Sunday. Nice camera work, guys. He apparently dodged any major injury and we do not have a timetable for his return. Since this is the case, you should go into Week 6 assuming that he will not play and it will be Devontae Booker in his place, who scored 2 TDs in relief in Week 5.

• Damien Harris - Harris exited Sunday’s game twice with a chest injury. He also fumbled on the goal line, but was still given work, showing just how much Belichick thinks of the other RBs on his roster. Harris did not practice today but is day to day at the moment, so he will probably be fine to go on Sunday since he avoided a significant injury. Keep an eye on his practice status, and he’s an RB2/Flex option if he starts on Sunday against the Cowboys.

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire - CEH has been put on the IR list already with an MCL sprain, so he’s out for at least 3 weeks. Darrel Williams should be the main RB in his place, getting almost all of the work going forward. Jerick McKinnon is also available for the Chiefs, but he only has 4 total touches on the season, so he is firmly a backup to Williams for now.

• Christian McCaffrey - CMC was practicing last week and came down to a game time decision and ultimately he did not play on Sunday. This week was his originally targeted return time, so I like his chances to return in Week 6 against the Vikings. He practiced again today. If he goes, he’s going to get his normal workload. If he doesn’t, then you can safely roll Chuba Hubbard out there for one more week. Keep an eye on the inactives ahead of gametime before making the final decision on this one. 

• Chris Carson - Carson missed Week 5 with a neck injury, but avoided the IR which should mean that he’s back soon. He did not practice today, but Pete Carroll said that the plan is for him to return to practice tomorrow. With Russell Wilson out for a while, it’s a great spot for the Seattle RBs to get even more carries than normal. If Carson cannot go, it’ll be Alex Collins for another week - he received 15 carries last week and has Flex value against the Steelers on Sunday night.

• Joe Mixon / Samaje Perine - These two split carries in Sunday’s game 12/15 with more of a 60/30 snap percentage split. However, after the game, Perine was placed on the covid list and that sets up Mixon to have a full workload on this Sunday against the lowly Lions. If you have Mixon, it should be back to normal for him. Perine is droppable in most leagues.

• Dalvin Cook - Cook missed the game in Week 5, and Alexander Mattison proved once again to be the best backup RB in fantasy football. Cook did practice all week before being ruled out, so even though he practiced today, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be starting this week. The Vikings are on bye in Week 7, so it might be that they hold him out through the bye week just to be sure.

Wide Receivers

• Tyreek Hill - Hill was reported to have a knee injury which turned out to be a quad contusion. He is not practicing today, and obviously a leg injury on this speedster is something that needs to be treated seriously. Keep an eye on his status through the week. If he does not practice, I do not expect him to play on Sunday. Their matchup against Washington is juicy though - they’re giving up the 4th most points to opposing WRs, so I would start him if he is going to play. If he does not, Mecole Hardman, who was second on the team with 12 targets last week, should be the main beneficiary. Travis Kelce will be heavily involved as usual and Darrel Williams should see plenty of targets. It’ll be up to one of the many other targets on the team to step up - 6 other players saw 2 or fewer targets on Sunday. Perhaps a place for Josh Gordon to step up? Unlikely, but it’s fun to feed into the hype.

• Kenny Golladay - Here’s our token Giants entry for this position as well. They really got battered on Sunday. Golladay suffered a hyperextended knee, and he was finally getting warmed up this season on the Giants too. He’s expected to miss at least week 6, but was not placed on the IR. Kadarius Toney is the new hotness on the team, and Sterling Shepard could be coming back with Darius Slayton, this muddling the target share for the Giants. Daniel Jones’ status is also an issue for the WRs.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster - You know an injury is serious when the team immediately signs whoever is on the top of the free agent pile - this time it was Anthony Miller. Juju is going to have shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of 2021. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool will continue to operate as the 1-2 on that offense. Juju was not contributing much this year, and was not fantasy relevant anymore, anyways.

• A.J. Brown / Julio Jones - A.J. Brown returned last week and was on the field for 64% of snaps. He didn’t have any setbacks, so he should be back above 80% next week. Julio missed his second straight game last week and it was a hamstring injury, the typical kind of injury he’s had all his career. He is practicing today, so he might be back, but I’m not enthusiastic about starting him immediately once he returns. For now this team is all Derrick Henry and there’s not enough production for two starting WRs anyways.