Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Another week of football in the books and another week of injuries/benchings/breakout performances that give you the opportunity for some helpful waiver wire adds. Oh, and my Bears somehow beat the Vikings... with Cutler as the starting QB? Sometimes this league doesn't make any sense. Anyways, SIX teams are on bye this week; Cardinals, Bears, Bengals, Texans, Patriots and Redskins. Good luck!

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Joe Flacco (BAL) - 23% owned - The Ravens are coming off their bye week and face off against the Steelers who are giving up a close to bottom of the league 283 yards per game to opposing passers so far this season. Flacco's volume makes him a great floor play this week if you need a bye week fill in as he is currently tied with Drew Brees for most pass attempts per game at 44.

Honorable mention: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) - 22% owned

Running Back

Tim Hightower (NO) - 5% owned - Hightower was thrown into a lead role last week after Mark Ingram gave up a fumble for the second week in a row. With this opportunity Hightower managed to put up 102 yards on 26 carries against the Seahawks and it appears there will now be a timeshare situation in the New Orleans backfield for the time being. I'd normally say he would be a risky play for week 9 until the timeshare situation is clearer, but the Saints draw the 49ers who are giving up 185 yards per game on the ground so there should be plenty of fantasy points for the entire Saints backfield in this one.  

Charcandrick West (KC) - 9% owned - With Spencer Ware in concussion protocol and Jamaal Charles still not healthy, Charcandrick West has a decent shot at being the starter for KC in week 9. It would be a great matchup against the 6th worst rush defense of the Jaguars who are allowing 125 yards per game on the ground.

Honorable mentions: Antone Smith (TB) - 1% owned, Rob Kelley (WAS) - 35% owned

Wide Receiver

J.J. Nelson (ARZ) - 3% owned - After Nelson posted 79 yards and two touchdowns on 8 catches last week Bruce Arians has gone on record to say he will be a starting wide receiver going forward. The Cardinals do have a bye in week 9 so he would be an upside stash for at least a week.

Jamison Crowder (WAS) - 49% owned - Hopefully this will be the last week Crowder will be allowed on here as he should really be owned in all leagues. He is the 13th ranked WR in standard scoring and is coming off another monster game of 9 catches on 13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. Redskins also have a bye in week 9 so if you're desperate for a play next week then look to the honorable mentions!

Honorable mentions: Kenny Britt (LA) - 39% owned, Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) - 45% owned

Tight End

Dennis Pitta (BAL) - 44% owned - Pitta will be a serviceable volume play this week against the Steelers as he is averaging just over 8 targets per game. Look his way if you need a bye week replacement.

Honorable mention: Cameron Brate (TB) - 41% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Atlanta Falcons (ATL) - 10% owned - My streaming defense of the week goes to the Falcons up against Tampa Bay. They seem to have found a pass rush lately getting 14 sacks over their last 4 games compared to the 4 they tallied in their first 4 games.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

30.24 Points

Through Sunday, Joe Flacco leads all players with 30.24 points in Week 13, after a monster 381 yard, 4 TD performance against the Dolphins. It's only the third time he's gone over 300 yards, and only the second time he's thrown for more than 2 TDs all season, so you probably didn't have him in your lineup. Owned in 23% of leagues, he's been a regular face on our waiver wire article, but I don't think anyone saw this game coming from him. This is the type of performance that he was signed for - 'member when Flacco was the highest paid player in the league? I 'member. I suppose he's not paid for big numbers - he's paid to keep his team in first place, which they are.

175 Yards from Scrimmage

David Johnson has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his 12 games this season and is making a strong MVP argument. This remarkable streak seems to really just be the norm for him - last season 4 of his last 5 games were over 100 yards from scrimmage as well. This season, he's the 4th highest scoring player in fantasy, and it's hard for anyone other than QBs to top that list. Last year, the top 16 players were QBs, then came Antonio Brown. Johnson is even pulling away from Ezekiel Elliott to dominate the RB position all by himself. So far, he has 1709 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns and you still have 3 more games with him in the fantasy playoffs. Johnson can easily eclipse the 300 point mark this season.

4 Passing Yards

Well, we don't get all of them right. On Sunday, Colin Kaepernick had just 4 passing yards and was benched in the second half after being just absolutely awful. I didn't see this coming, and I'm sure some around these parts would like to attribute it to "Bear Weather", but really, the 49ers are just that bad, Kaepernick included. Players that always rely on garbage time to score their points aren't always going to be given that opportunity, and I suppose that's something worth remembering when going hunting for replacement QBs.

2 Point Return

Eric Berry found a new way to win a game in Atlanta on Sunday - the Pick-Two. I suppose we'll have to work on that name, it doesn't roll off the tongue like a pick-six, which he also had earlier in the game. This is the second time that I've seen a lead change in the 4th quarter of a game as the result of a return for two points. DEN-NO had this happen when the Broncos blocked an extra point attempt and returned it for two to win the game 25-23. The Chiefs are now 9-3 and have only lost to the Steelers, Texans and Buccaneers, all quality teams this season. Suddenly I need to stop complaining about Thursday Night Football, since we got the Cowboys-Vikings last week and the Raiders-Chiefs this week. I'll take it!

60 Straight Home Games

Sunday marked the end of Drew Brees's streak of 60 straight home games where he threw a passing touchdown. In an era where Brady and Manning will be remembered as bigger names, Rodgers as the better "pure QB", it's still possible that Brees winds up as a more prolific passer than all of them. He is, yet again, leading the league in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns and passing attempts. He's also the active career leader in all of those categories. You're freaking awesome, Drew. I just wish you had better teams, like those other three guys. On a side note, the Saints somehow became the first team this season NOT to lead the Detroit Lions in the 4th quarter.

The fantasy playoffs are finally upon us! The weak managers have all been eliminated, bye weeks are over and you just need to survive three more weeks of matchups to take home a championship. Hopefully, this advice will aid you in getting one week closer to glory. Good Luck!

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Joe Flacco (BAL) - 23% owned - Most likely no one needs to be running to the wire for a quarterback when there are no bye-weeks, but if you do need one I recommend Flacco. He should have to air the ball a lot to keep pace with the Patriots and is coming off his best game of the year going 36-47 for 381 yards and 4 TDs against the Dolphins.

Honorable mention: Alex Smith (KC) - 27% owned

Running Back

Kenneth Dixon (BAL) - 46% owned - Dixon continues to split work with Terrence West despite having a 5.9 yards per carry average compared to the 3.9 average for West over the past four weeks. If you need help at running back Dixon should be counted on for 10-12 touches with a strong chance of that workload to increase over the remainder of the season.

Mike Gillislee (BUF) - 23% owned - Gillislee has been getting touches behind LeSean McCoy in Buffalo's run heavy offense. I'd expect him to see somewhere around 8-10 touches per game down the stretch, but what's nice is that he does get goal line work which was seen last week when he scored two touchdowns from three or fewer yards out of the end zone.

Honorable mentions: Jerick McKinnon (MIN) - 44% owned, Adrian Peterson (MIN) - 47% owned

Wide Receiver

Ted Ginn Jr. (CAR) - 23% owned - Ginn has seen his role in the Panthers offense grow the second half of the season and is coming off a great three-game stretch of 12 catches for 241 yards and 3 touchdowns. If his involvement continues he should be a great asset down the stretch with matchups against the Chargers, Redskins and Falcons his next three games.

Malcolm Mitchell (NE) - 29% owned - Mitchell has seen more playing time recently with injuries to the Patriots pass catchers. He's made the most of the playing time catching 17 passes for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past three games. It was announced that Danny Amendola suffered a high ankle sprain this past week which means Mitchell should continue to see more looks for the fantasy playoffs.

Honorable mention: Taylor Gabriel (ATL) - 38% owned

Tight End

Ladarius Green (PIT) - 23% owned - Injuries may have delayed it from happening, but Green finally had his breakout performance as a Steeler, going off for 110 yards and a touchdown on 6 of 11 targets. He should continue to get a high amount of targets down the stretch since no other receiver has stepped up, besides Antonio Brown so far.

Honorable mention: Dennis Pitta (BAL) - 33% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals (TB) - 31% owned - The Bengals defense has been floating around average all season long for fantasy purposes, but they draw the terrible Browns in week 14 which means they are worthy of a start.

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 9 Preview: Rookie Report Card

QUARTERBACKS

Joe Flacco (neck) – Herniated disc? Not sure about that one.. Frankly, it’s just not working out with Flacco under center for the Broncos and it’s just as likely that the extent of the neck injury is being inflated in order to have an easy excuse to rule Flacco out and make a change at the position, on the way to Drew Lock starting in a few weeks. In the meantime, Brandon Allen (who was a Los Angeles Ram earlier this year up until Blake Bortles took his backup spot behind Jared Goff) will start. Allen was originally drafted in 2016 by the Jaguars in the 6^th round and has not yet played a snap in the NFL outside of preseason games. The most likely scenario here is that Allen puts up below average numbers for a few weeks before Drew Lock steps in for his turn to run the offense. Lock will have to wait 3 weeks before being added to the active roster, that timer starting as soon as he practices. Why throw Lock to the wolves against Minnesota and Buffalo in weeks 11 and 12 following the Broncos’ bye? I’m betting on Lock getting his first start against the Chargers in week 13.

Cam Newton (foot) – After Kyle Allen’s dismal performance against the surging 49ers (19/37 for 158 yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs), the consensus around the NFL is that Cam Newton will be slotting back into the lineup shortly. Allen will still start against the Titans in Week 9 but that will likely be his last start this season (unless Newton suffers a setback in his rehab). Cam is only 42% owned right now, and that will only go up as he gets closer to a return. Should you grab him if he’s available on the waiver wire? In Superflex leagues, absolutely!

Patrick Mahomes (ankle) – It’s still unclear if Mahomes will start in Week 9 against the Vikings but seems less likely as we approach the weekend. Matt Moore was the QB to address the media today after practice, and I think Mahomes fantasy owners may need to find a fill-in for one more week. On a positive note, Moore performed admirably against the Packers (24/36 for 237 yards and 2 TDs) and would be a serviceable QB2 this week as well.

Case Keenum (concussion) – Haskins is not yet ready to start, that much is painfully obvious. But Keenum has yet to be cleared from a concussion that he suffered in Week 8. If Keenum can’t start, Haskins might be thrust into a horrible matchup with the Bills and all fantasy value from the Redskins (really only Adrian Peterson and Terry McLaurin at this point) will take a further dive.

RUNNING BACKS

David Johnson (back/ankle) – He was a limited participant in practice today and is trending toward a game-time decision. This is a short week, however, and with Chase Edmonds (hamstring) also injured, this situation is trending toward being a RBBC featuring the newly acquired Kenyan Drake as well as Zach Zenner and Alfred Morris. Brand new RB? Playing against the 49ers? The smart move will be to avoid this whole mess and circle back next week.

James Conner (shoulder) – Conner put up some impressive stats against the Dolphins but was injured in the last 2 minutes of the game when he fell on his shoulder. Mike Tomlin said on Tuesday when he addressed the media that the injury was to his AC joint and that he would be held out early in the week but still has a chance to practice and play on Sunday if his shoulder progresses enough. For the time being, the only running back on the Steelers both relevant (sorry, Trey Edmunds) and healthy is Jaylen Samuels – who would be an immediate RB2 against the Colts if Conner has to sit this week out.

 
Royce Freeman (shoulder) – A shoulder issue that he picked up in Week 8 could linger, causing Freeman to be held out against the Browns this week – but it’s more likely that he pushes through it and the running game from Freeman and Lindsay will be extremely important for the Broncos with first-time starter Brandon Allen at Quarterback. Watch the news this week to make sure that Freeman is practicing leading up to the game.

Matt Breida (ankle) – Week 8 was all about Tevin Coleman (11 rushes for 105 yards and 3 TDs, 2 receptions for 13 yards and 1 TD), and Coleman will be out there again – but we could also get fantasy production from Brieda (ankle), Mostert (knee), or Wilson (neck) if they are able to play against the Cardinals this week.

Miles Sanders (shoulder) – 118 all-purpose yards and a TD last week for Sanders added up to his best game so far as a rookie, but Sanders left the game in the 3^rd quarter with a shoulder injury. He didn’t practice today, but beat reporters suggest that he’s not in danger of missing Week 9 against the Bears. Sproles is also back at practice this week, so we could see more of a RBBC developing again, similar to how the position looked earlier in the season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Marquise Brown (ankle) – We should see Brown back in action this week after he returned to practice today, but he’s not someone to use this week against the Patriots unless you have a serious need at WR. Even then I would suggest trying to find someone else. Brown had been trending down in fantasy production even before his injury.

 
Davante Adams (toe) – Adams participated in practice today “without any visible signs of limitation” and Adam Schefter already reported this past weekend that Adams return in week 9 against the Chargers “is likely”. Averaging about 7 receptions for 90+ yards in each of his first four games, expect more of the same if he suits up this week.

Dede Westbrook (neck/shoulder) – Westbrook tried to tough it out this past week but didn’t end up playing past the first half. He has been disappointing this season and ceded most of the available fantasy production to D.J. Chark and Chris Conley.

A.J. Green (ankle) – Green is practicing and should be good to go against the Ravens in Week 10. After the Bengals declined to trade him, it looks like there will be some kind of long-term extension offered to Green when he becomes a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 season. In the meantime, a healthy Green returning next week should provide an immediate boost to the offense in general, regardless of who is under center (which will be rookie Ryan Finley, at least in week 10).

Brandin Cooks (concussion) – It’s a bye week for Cooks, but he is off visiting a series of specialists to discuss his history of concussions (he’s had a total of 4 known concussions including the one that he suffered last week). It is now a possibility that Cooks will take multiple weeks to recover, or even be put on IR based on the conversations that I’m hearing from the team and surrounding sources. Obviously what’s important here is that he can get healthy ASAP.

Sterling Shepard (concussion) – Speaking of concussions, Shepard hasn’t played since week 5 but it looks like he’ll be back in uniform along with the rest of the Giants’ offensive pieces. It will be interesting to see how everyone is used in this matchup against Dallas on Monday.

DeSean Jackson (abdomen) – Another WR that has been missing for quite some time, Jackson adds a lot to the Eagles’ offense when he is able to stretch the field and it looks like he will be back for Week 9’s bout with the Bears.

TIGHT ENDS

Chris Herndon (hamstring) – Limited in Wednesday’s practice. He looks like he’s on track to play in Week 9 against the Dolphins. Darnold excelled with Herndon last season, and the matchup with the Dolphins would be a great place to enjoy a get-right game for Darnold and the Jets’ offense in general. This would be the first game that the 2018 fourth-round pick has played this year after a suspension and injury.

O.J. Howard (hamstring) – Looks like Howard is a long-shot to play in Week 9 against the Seahawks, but I doubt he’s even on most rosters after a very slow start to the season (41% owned). Cameron Brate is a toss-up sort of play in this matchup, with both Anthony Auclair and Tanner Hudson also getting a decent share of snaps in this offense.