Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

10/14/14, Revisiting RB/WR Consistency, Rating the Rookies

Thanks to mother nature, our rookie expert Shawn Foss had a rain out and was able to join us for tonight's show. Tonight we enjoyed beers from Stone, Rogue, 5 Rabbit and St. Bernardus. It's quite a selection, check out the show for details.

Tonight we went over Joe Flacco's excellent game against Tampa, Andre Holmes showing up against the Chargers and Knowshon Moreno winding up on the IR. Then we revisited the top 10 drafted WR's and RB's and where they are at. Once again, we found that the WR position is more consistent at the top of the draft.

Make sure to join us next week, live at 9pm CST on blogtalk radio (blogtalkradio.com/drinkfive). Feel free to send us your questions and we'll answer them on the podcast! Ask us on our Facebook page, follow us on twitter (@drinkfive), or send us an e-mail to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also grab the podcast on iTunes.

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Ryan Tannehill: Wk 10 @ DET – 11.28 pts, Wk 11 vs BUF – 16.80 pts, Wk 12 @ DEN – 27.6 pts

We tend to always look at the downward trends, but let’s start off with an upward trend. Tannehill has gotten through a tough stretch and had a great showing last week against a tough Denver defense. Tannehills remaining schedule is split. This week he faces the Jets, then has to face Baltimore and New England, before getting Minnesota in Week 16. Our question, though, is for Week 13. Will Tannehill score 20 or more points (yahoo projection)? The Jets are giving up 21 points/game to opposing QB’s.

Both of us predicted he would go over 20 points in a game against a weak Jets secondary. Well, what better way to start off the segment than by both drinking? Tannehill really struggled, but came out with a win. 235 yards passing with 1 INT and adding only 13 yards on the ground is not going to cut it when it comes to fantasy, but this was his low point of the year and I do not expect it to be repeated.

John Brown: Wk 10 vs STL – 13.30 pts, Wk 11 vs DET – 6.90, Wk 12 @ SEA – 6.10 pts

Brown has really been flashy for the Cardinals, but not consistent at all. He is very touchdown dependent so far this year. With Fitzgerald out of the lineup, it was expected that Brown would pick up the slack, but that wasn’t the case last week. Brown has a plus matchup this week in Atlanta, but then faces KC, @ STL and SEA to finish off your fantasy season. This guy has fool’s gold written all over him. We’ll set the over/under at 8 points.

John Brown's dependence on the TD is very apparently and we both picked him to go under 8 points for the week. HIs 2 catches for 40 yards against Atlanta will only get him halfway to our line. Until there is a proper QB in Arizona, none of their WR's are every week starts. Everybody else drinks five!

LeSean McCoy: Wk 10 vs CAR – 7.70 pts, Wk 11 @ GB – 10.60 pts, Wk 12 vs TEN – 19.10 pts

McCoy has definitely not lived up to his expectations this season. He had an ADP of 1, but is 14^th overall for RB points.McCoy struggled at the beginning of the year with a constantly changing offensive line, it has really solidified in the last few weeks. McCoy is trending up, but has not broken 20 points in a single game all season. With Sproles in there vulturing touchdowns and Polk spelling him, is McCoy ever going to return to his former status as the top back in the league? This week he faces Dallas on Thanksgiving, a team with a vastly improved (though still middle of the pack) run defense. We’ll set the over/under at 12 points.

Both of us predicted that he would go over 12 points and he was the Real McCoy this week, carrying the ball 25 times for 159 yards and 1 TD. His 1 fumble kept him below the 20 point mark (19.9), but I suppose I can live with that. McCoy now finds himself in the top 10 RB's (10) for the season. Everybody drinks!

Frank Gore: Wk 10 @ NO – 14.30 pts, Wk 11 @ NYG – 9.40 pts, Wk 12 vs WAS – 1.60 pts

Gore is pointed in the wrong direction. Though he’s had plenty of work the last three weeks, 55 carries total, he’s only managed 212 yards in that stretch which is good for only 3.85 yards per carry. Getting a solid 18+ carries per game should spell success for a back like Gore, but the 49ers offense has really struggled lately. Gore plays host to Seattle this week, and has games coming up in Oakland, Seattle and home against the Chargers. We’ll set the over/under on Gore at 8.50 points.

Both of us said Gore would stay under 8.5 (Dave says he never scores over 12 points in his life). I think Dave might be on to something. 10 carries for 28 yards, 2 targets for 1 catch and 8 yards receiving does not make a good game. 3.6 points total is just brutal, and Gore has only 4 games in double digits all year. He's a sit for me the rest of the season.

Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts

Wright had a great game against the Lions, outscoring even the great Gronk. Why do I include a player such as Tim Wright in this list? Frankly, I don’t like starting tight ends that are going to catch a TD or do nothing, so why is he relevant? He is currently the most picked up TE in yahoo leagues. If you need to pick up a TE, you probably need to win since it’s Week 13. Tim Wright cannot be relied upon to be the guy who helps you win. Instead look elsewhere for guys like Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Cameron or Delanie Walker if you have to fill a need at TE. We’ll set the over/under at 6.10 points for Wright.

Dave has a rather specific prediction that says he will score between 6.1 and 8.0, I said under 6.1. Wright had just one target in an exciting game, netting him just 12 yards and no touchdowns. Wright is only played for his TD scoring (6 on the season) and really is only a last minute option. Dave drinks five for this one

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 13 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Joe Flacco: Wk 10 vs TEN - 10.56 pts, Wk 12 @ NO - 13.92 pts, Wk 13 vs SD - 23.30 pts

Flacco hasn't been lighting up the world since his 5 TD game back in week 6, but his 23+ points against SD is the third time he's gone over 20 points this season. Flacco will go to Miami for Week 14, a team that is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing QB's. Flacco is clearly in the QB2 conversation, but does he need to be a sit this week? We will set the line at 14 points.

Mike Evans: Wk 11 vs ATL - 32.90 pts, Wk 12 @ CHI - 10.70 pts, Wk 13 vs CIN - 4.90 pts

Evans is a member of this year's stellar WR rookie crop and was on his way to rookie of the year consideration for a while there. He scored 86.5 points in a 4 week stretch (9-12) and had 6 TD's in that time. Last week he struggled, catching only 4 of 9 targets for 49 yards against the Bengals. This week it gets even harder, playing the Lions in Detroit. We'll set Evans's line at 11 points - can McCown get him the ball enough?

DeSean Jackson: Wk 11 vs TB - 3.70 pts, Wk 12 @ SF - 3.90 pts, Wk 13 @ IND - 14.40 pts

Jackson is the victim of one of the more volatile QB situations in the league. The Redskins have had 3 starting QB's this season, though it does appear that they will stick with Colt McCoy for the remainder of the season. This is good news for Jackson as he has 14 points per game when McCoy starts and he's under 10 per game on average when he does not. This week, Jackson faces the Rams whom are giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR's. Can Jackson keep his trend going upward? We will set the line for him at 12 points.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 11 @ NO - 16.50 pts, Wk 12 @ HOU - 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts

Side note before we start, the Bengals just had 3 road games and won all 3 of them, a first in franchise history. Hill has been a big part of two of those wins, racking up over 30 points in the first two games, but only carrying the ball 13 times for 40 yards last week (3.1 ypc). That's quite disappointing, compared to the 4.9 ypc he had going into the game. Hill criticized the play calling, his OC promptly called him out, saying he needs to break more tackles and block better. Perhaps the fire has been lit under Hill's ass and he has a home game against the Steelers this Sunday to show he deserves time on the field instead of Giovani Bernard. We'll set the line for Hill at 10 this week, due to the Steelers only giving up 16 to opposing RB's and Gio getting back into the swing of things.

Rashad Jennings: Wk 11 vs SF - 6.70 pts, Wk 12 vs DAL - 12.00 pts, Wk 13 @ JAX 21.40 pts

Jennings returned to the Giants lineup three weeks ago, and has been trending up ever since. His first game was shaky against the 49ers, but since then has been the RB2 you expected him to be. Andre Williams is basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes and all but being a goal line back for the Giants. Jennings will see the bulk of the work going forward, as his 26 carries in Jacksonville can attest. We'll set the line at 12 points for his Week 14 matchup in Tennessee.

Jason Witten: Wk 10 @ JAX - 9.30 pts, Wk 12 @ NYG - 9.00 pts, Wk 13 vs PHI - 0.80 pts

Tight Ends don't really seem to trend like QB/WR/RB, but let's give it a shot anyway. Witten has been a disappointment all season and while 30 yards and a TD in weeks 10 and 12 may seem acceptable, those are the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring weeks this season. Witten plays the "soft enough for a bear in the woods" Chicago Bears defense, so can we expect 9 points, or is he a definite sit?

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 14 and we will recap the results next week.

Each week we'll give you some recommended starters that you need to get in your lineup for one reason or another. Usually, it's because of a good matchup, sometimes it's a player that's trending up, and once in a while it's going to be the secret to your fantasy victory!

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan @ OAK: The Atlanta quarterback was not highly touted heading into this season. Week 1 was a strong showing for him with 334 yards and 2 touchdowns. More importantly, he protected the football, something he has struggled with in the past. I like Matt Ryan in week 2 against the Oakland Raiders. Drew Brees just torched the Oakland secondary in week 1. Mohamed Sanu gives Ryan a good second option after Julio Jones. Running Backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will keep the Raiders defense honest too.

Joe Flacco @ CLE: The Ravens win the Cleveland Lottery in week 2. Joe Flacco returned to the field after tearing his ACL last season, and while his knee looks fine his fantasy score left something to be desired. The highlight was his connection with Mike Wallace on a 66 yard touchdown pass. Cleveland did a piss poor job last week of introducing rookie Carson Wentz to the NFL. Wentz threw for 278 and 2 TD’s in his first ever game; I expect Flacco to have his way with the Cleveland defense this Sunday.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller vs. KC: As expected, Lamar Miller was used heavily in week 1 for the Texans. In fact, he was one of only two top 25 running backs to rush for over 100 yards in week 1. Miller saw 28 carries and 4 receptions in week 1. Houston will not move away from that in a week 2 match-up with the Chiefs. Kansas City gave up 146 total rushing yards between Danny Woodhead and Melvin Gordon in week 1.

Spencer Ware @ HOU: Jamaal Charles is still a question mark for week 2 and it’s safe to say the Chiefs have no reason to rush him back. Spencer Ware split time with Charcandrick West in week 1, but Ware was clearly the more utilized back. His 18 touches for 199 total yards makes him a must start this week and every week until Charles returns.

Wide Receiver

Tajae Sharpe @ DET: Marcus Mariota is clearly feeling it with Tajae Sharpe. Sharpe led the team in targets with 11 while bringing in 7 receptions for 76 yards. Tennessee has a favorable match-up in week 2 against a Lions pass defense that looked awful in week 1. Sharpe’s strong route running will offer him plenty of opportunity against this secondary.

Tight End

Dwayne Allen @ DEN: Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen were both strong options for Andrew Luck in week 1. They finished 1 and 2 amongst tight ends in scoring for week 1. Dwayne Allen saw 2 more targets and 18 more yards, while Jack Doyle’s big boost came with his 2 touchdown performance. I like Allen in week 2 because he is clearly the TE1 on the Colts and a favorite red zone target for Andrew Luck.

Week 4 is upon us which means one important thing, bye weeks have come! Only two teams on bye this week but they are the Packers and Eagles which both contain some very fantasy relevant players. If you need some fill ins, or just want to improve your teams depth, the below recommendations should be considered to help your team out.

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Joe Flacco (BAL) - 29% owned - If you are looking for a bye-week fill in at the quarterback position this week, Flacco has an amazing matchup against a Raiders pass defense giving up 340 passing yards per game and the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks through 3 weeks.

Honorable mention: Carson Wentz (PHI) - 20% owned (on bye week 4 but nice matchups weeks 5/6)

Running Back

Jordan Howard (CHI) - 25% owned - Jeremy Langford was carted off the field in week 3 with what is reported to be a high ankle sprain, which means Howard will be leading the Bears backfield for at least the next 3 weeks and potentially permanently if he performs well enough. The Bears matchups the next 3 weeks are against average to below average rushing defenses in the Lions, Colts and Jaguars. I consider Howard the waiver add of the week.

Orleans Darkwa (NYG) - 3% owned - With Rashad Jennings sitting out, Darkwa split carries with Shane Vereen in week 3 and ended up with 53 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries as well as a reception for 9 yards. It was reported today that Vereen will now miss the rest of the season with a triceps injury which means Darkwa will be the lead back for however long Jennings remains out. Whenever Jennings returns Darkwa should still hold some minor fantasy relevance.

Honorable mention: Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR) - 19% owned

Wide Receiver

Terrelle Pryor Sr. (CLE) - 23% owned - Pryor was putting up fantasy points every way imaginable against the Dolphins catching 8 out of 14 targets for 144 yards, rushing 4 times for 21 yards and completing 3 out of 5 passes for 35 yards. I'm expecting these kind of stat lines won't be showing up after Josh McCown and Josh Gordon get back in the lineup, but he's definitely worth an add and start in all formats for week 4.

Steve Smith Sr. (BAL) - 39% owned - Although he didn't make it into the end zone in week 3, Smith caught 8 of 11 targets for 87 yards. He has a great matchup against an Oakland defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so you can expect a big game here.

Honorable mention: Cole Beasley (DAL) - 21% owned

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph (MIN) - 42% owned - Rudolph looks to be a focal point of the Vikings offense this season which is shown by his 166 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 of 26 targets. These stats make him good for second most fantasy points and targets at the tight end position behind only Greg Olsen.

Honorable mention: Cameron Brate (TB) - 2% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Washington Redskins (WAS) - 7% owned - Recommending the Redskins as a streaming defense this week since they go up against Cleveland who still will be starting their 3rd string rookie quarterback in Cody Kessler. Look for a few freebie turnovers to come the Redskins way this week.