Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

20 Fantasy Points per Game

Todd Gurley's monster game in Seattle on Sunday brought his season average up to 20 points per game. There are only 3 active players who average more points per game than Gurley, all of them top end QBs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only non-QB even in Gurley's neighborhood, and he finally returns this week (against the Seahawks, to boot). I do, however, expect Gurley to be on a lot more championship teams than Elliott. The torch in the NFC West has been passed, though maybe not passed so much as ripped from Seattle's grasp with Gurley's 4 touchdowns. In a year where the MVP debate seems to have someone drop out every week, Gurley is looking like the best non-Brady pick of the leftovers.

74-14 Over Two Games

The Jaguars exploded on to the 2017 season in Week 1 by laying a 29-7 whooping on the Texans and announcing their arrival. They completed the season sweep of the Texans this week, this time by a score of 45-7 and clinched their first playoff berth since 2007. The Jaguars scored six touchdowns, and not a single one of them were on your fantasy team. A pair of them from Jaydon Mickens and Tommy Bohannon led the way for Blake Bortles to continue his excellent fantasy streak since Week 12. There will be some waiver pickups this week available from the Jaguars - their matchup against the 49ers looks good, so Keelan Cole will be a guy to check out this week.

4 Passing Touchdowns

A pair of NFC QBs threw four passing TDs each on Sunday, both leading their team to wins while overcoming halftime deficits. Cam Newton was unimpressed with Aaron Rodgers' return, outperforming him at nearly every turn. Newton had no picks to Rodgers' three - his first time doing this since 2009. The Panthers strengthened their playoff resume, with Greg Olsen announcing he's returned, and Christian McCaffrey continuing to roll along, just 26 yards shy of 1000 yards from scrimmage for the year. Nick Foles also threw 4 TDs, though he's in a much different situation than Newton. Foles is taking over for Carson Wentz and had quite a good showing on his first start. He keeps the Eagles in as the #1 seed in the NFC and has a great matchup for Week 16 at home against the Raiders.

5-0 As A Starter

Well, it looks like the 49ers definitely are happy with their choice of QB, as the Jimmy Garappolo era has begun. He's now 3-0 as the 49ers starter (he was 2-0 last year for the Patriots) and has spawned memes with 49ers GM John Lynch. Jimmy G threw for a career high 381 yards on Sunday, but still hasn't surpassed 1 TD in a game this season. This week his matchup against Jacksonville keeps him from being on the streaming radar, but the future is bright for the 49ers and their new QB. Perhaps the biggest fantasy impact on the 49ers is Robbie Gould, who's made 15 field goals in the last 3 weeks. He's responsible for 48 of the team's 66 points in their last three wins. An honorable mention also goes to Marquise Goodwin, who had 10 catches for 114 yards this week.

100+ Receptions 5 Years in a Row

This week's MVP candidate to go down is Antonio Brown. He'll be back for the playoffs, but won't return during the regular season. Before going down, Brown was able to go over 100 catches for his fifth straight season, the first player in league history to do this. The rest of the Steelers delivered on your fantasy hopes, despite the outcome of the game. On the other side, Gronk smashed, Brady led a last minute comeback, and the Patriots won again. Ho hum...I'm getting so sick of the Patriots. I figured the Steelers would have a chance to take them down, but if the AFC Championship game is in Foxboro, then it's going to be a tough road. Perhaps the Jaguars and their league leading 51 sacks can get the job done. The Dolphins gave the league a blueprint for beating the Pats, someone please make it happen in the playoffs this year.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Trey Lance

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has said throughout the offseason after selecting rookie QB Trey Lance 3rd overall in the 2021 rookie draft, that Lance will have a “tough time” becoming the starter this year. But is that just coach-speak for “he’ll be starting after a few regular season games”?

Well, let’s take a look at the details here: Garoppolo was the QB just two seasons ago when the surging 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl to lose to the Chiefs 31-20. Lance, on the other hand, has been flashing some highlights in practice and impressed the world with an 80-yard touchdown play to wide receiver Trent Sherfield in this past weekend’s preseason game.

That said, news from the 49ers beat reporters has remained consistent: Trey Lance continues to show his upside in loose practices, but Garoppolo is far better at situational football. It’s important to remember that when you’re constantly blowing out teams (like Lance generally enjoyed in college at North Dakota State), you don’t get a ton of real world practice in high-pressure, two-minute drill, game-winning, come-from-behind types of situations.

Garoppolo will make over $24 Million over the 2021 NFL season and provide the 49ers with a stable, veteran structure to make it to the postseason and compete for another Super Bowl with a win-now stable of talent.

The 49ers traded up to get Lance in this year’s draft - trading 3 first round picks and leaving them without a first round selection until 2024. But Garoppolo is playing for his life and a future home in another NFL city. My money is on Jimmy G retaining the job this year, barring injury. Trey Lance’s era in San Francisco most likely begins in 2022.

Cam Newton vs. Mac Jones

When asked about whether he was going to start Week 1 for the Patriots at a press conference this past Monday, Cam Newton said: “Y’all sitting up here asking silly questions to me and I’m looking at y’all with the same thing. I don’t know what y’all want me to say…You know, you know that. You know he hasn’t said that, so for you to just ask the question, it is what it is.”

It’s clear that the QB1 spot for the Pats is still up in the air with the team drafting Mac Jones as the 15th overall pick this year and Cam Newton’s less-than-stellar performance at the position last season. Stats after the first preseason game? Newton went 4-7 for 49 yards while Jones went 13-19 for 87 yards. Admittedly Jones had more playing time.

Yesterday’s scrimmage session with the Eagles resulted in good numbers from both of them, with Newton going 13-15 and Jones going 13-14 on the day. Notably, the Eagles kept calling Cam the ‘Checkdown King’. We have a lot of preseason football to go and plenty of Patriots fans are calling for Jones to get the nod in Week 1, but if we look at Belichick historically it’s much more likely that Cam will be the one lining up to start on September 12th against the Dolphins.

Belichick and the Pats in general tend to favor the more experienced players unless the competition is head & shoulders above them. Interestingly, there are reports out of camp of Newton/Jones being slotted in for quick plays inside of each others’ series so there may be some extra trickery at foot. This one is still anyone’s game based on preseason performance.

Week 4 was not kind to many across the league. Only one undefeated team remains, Tom Brady barely escaped Foxboro with a victory, Matt Nagy has saved his job for another week, Urban Meyer might have lost his job (certainly his locker room), and we learned that even domes can have weather delays. Not sure who to thank for that last one, probably El Niño. Regardless, let's get updated on what you need to know going in to Week 5.

• Jimmy Garoppolo was initially thought to have a multi-week calf injury and exited Sunday’s game after a lackluster performance. Garoppolo has not been very good this year, not topping 20 fantasy points in any game. NBC Sports Edge even went as far as to speculate that Garoppolo had played his last snap with the 49ers immediately after the game. Trey Lance threw a pair of TDs, threw for 157 yards and rushed for an additional 41. The news on Tuesday was that the injury to Garoppolo is not as bad as they thought, and that he might play Week 5 against the Cardinals. Frankly, I can’t understand why they would rush him back to play in that situation when the 49ers are on bye the following week. Trey Lance is probably their best chance in a shootout and in my opinion SHOULD be the starter.

• Josh Gordon is back!!! He was probably already picked up in your league by that one guy who is still living in 2013. Tuesday, he was promoted to the 53-man roster on the Chiefs and is worth a stash spot on your bench since he’s on the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league. 

• David Montgomery is going to be out 4-5 weeks which should land him on the IR, providing a little bit of roster relief for those leagues that are taking advantage of the new rules. Montgomery had a huge share of the Bears rushing attempts, and also had his best game on Sunday, running up over 100 yards and 2 TDs. This loss is definitely going to hurt and I don’t expect there to be a direct replacement for him. Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert will fill in for him while he’s gone, with Williams likely to get the majority of the work.

• Teddy Bridgewater left the game at halftime on Sunday and entered concussion protocol. Going into week 4, he was averaging 17.6 points per game, which put him right at the end of superflex startability. Now Drew Lock is going to start if Teddy can’t go and that feels like a downgrade for all fantasy players on the Broncos.

• Joe Mixon has an ankle injury. Initially, it was thought that he would be week-to-week, but now it appears that he’ll be day-to-day, so keep an eye on his practice status throughout the week. Of course, last year he was week-to-week in Week 5 and didn’t play again that season, so take all of this with a grain of salt. Mixon was playing over 75% of his team’s snaps, and now Samaje Perine will have to fill that role.

• Will Fuller has a broken finger and is considered week-to-week. This has been a frustrating start to his first season in Miami. For now, cut him loose and look for your fantasy points somewhere other than the Dolphins passing game.

• Logan Thomas is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Thomas was a popular draft pick this year who actually showed up and played well. His loss is tough, especially the zero points he got for you in Week 4. You’re better off streaming a TE from another team than trying to replace him with Ricky Seals-Jones.

• DJ Chark is going to the IR after breaking his ankle last Thursday night. Chark was off to a good start, playing on over 80% of snaps in the first 3 games, scoring 2 TDs and averaging 22 yards per reception. Now his absence should bump up the production numbers for Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault as the Jaguars get their passing offense going. 

That's it for this week! Make sure to join us live on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Wednesday at 9pm CST. Bring us your lineup questions, trade evaluations, and things you generally need advice on in your life. We're guaranteed not to make it any worse than it already is.