Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

On this episode of the Fantasy Finish Line podcast - your hosts Jason Evans and David Biggs will get into the weeds on 2nd year WRs - who is predicted to perform at a high level, who may be good value picks for the later rounds of your draft as bench depth, and who you should stay away from. We'll also touch on some fantasy red flags. When do you want to avoid drafting and/or starting players on a weekly basis? Stay on top of the latest news and analysis by listening to the show!

This video/podcast will go live at 9pm CT on Wednesday, September 1, 2021 - it will also be available on all major podcast channels and remain available on YouTube for later review and comments. Join us live and add your comments/questions to the show!

This video features the songs and artists listed below, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license:
- Various original music by David Biggs

Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes to get notifications whenever we release a new episode. We also broadcast the shows live on our YouTube channel Wednesday nights at 9pm CT. Feel free to browse over and join in the discussion in the chat room and subscribe to the drinkfive channel for updates!

We're just a couple of weeks away from the playoffs in fantasy football. Now's the time to get your rosters organized and make some tough decisions when it comes to the players that are performing on your team versus the big names that are not. For more discussion on these players, check out the Fantasy Finish Line, Week 10: Playoff Push! podcast.

Curtis Samuel (WR-CAR) Wk 7 @ NO, 14.3; Wk 8 vs ATL, 19.4, Wk 9 @ KC, 22.3 – Samuel is actually trending up over 5 games, going all the way back beginning in Week 4. Samuel did start the season rather slow, only eclipsing 4 targets once in the first 4 weeks. Now over the last 3 games, he has 7 carries and 20 targets. He has scored at least one TD per game during this stretch and finally broke the 100 yard mark last week. Samuel is not the most targeted player on his team by any means, but he is a dynamic player and the team wants to get the ball in his hands however they can. He has at least 1 carry in every game this season, and more than 1 in all but 2 games. Samuel is only owned in 69% of Fleaflicker leagues, so it’s even possible that he’s still available for you to pick up. A key member of the surprisingly good Panthers offense, he has decent matchups coming in his next 4 games, especially @ Minnesota and vs Denver. Samuel is an above average bye week or injury replacement.

Drew Lock (QB-DEN): ECR QB19 (Borderline QB2/3)

Week 6 (@NE): 10/24, 189 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 5/-1 rushing – 5.46 fpts

Week 7 (vs. KC): 42/40, 254 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3/8 rushing, 1 rush TD – 14.96 fpts

Week 8 (vs. LAC): 26/41, 248 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 2/-1 rushing – 20.82 fpts

Week 9 (@ ATL): 25/48, 313 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 7/47 rushing, 1 rush TD – 30.22 fpts

Going up against the Las Vegas Raiders defense in Week 10 presents another favorable matchup – The Raiders are giving up the 7^th most fantasy points to QBs (21.5 per game) and Lock has a lot of playmakers on the team - including Jerry Jeudy that we talk about below. Lock has attempted 40 or more passes three games in a row and could be considered a borderline QB1 in this matchup against the porous Raiders.

Going forward, Lock has matchups against the Dolphins, Saints, Chiefs, and Panthers, all of which are much tougher opponents to QBs as of week 9 (ranked at 19th, 13th, 25th, and 24^th respectively) than the Chargers, Falcons, and Raiders (4th, 2nd, and 7^th) defensive reprieve that he has been able to enjoy. It’s like the feeling when you’re on a tropical vacation but you have to return home next week to January in Chicago. So enjoy it while it lasts. My prediction is that Drew finishes top-10 in Week 10, but he should be left out on the waiver wire afterwards. Bundle up, Drew.

Jerry Jeudy (WR-DEN) Wk 7 vs KC, 3.0; Wk 8 vs LAC, 9.3; Wk 9 @ ATL, 22.0 – Jeudy’s usage on the Broncos has exploded the last few weeks. He has 24 targets over the last two games, more than the previous 4 games combined. Over those two weeks, he has the most targets on the team, which is always the spot you want your starting WRs in. Jeudy is owned in 76% of Fleaflicker leagues, so check your waiver wire to see if the rest of your league is asleep at the wheel. (Yes, that means that you were too).  Jeudy has really started to show off his route running skills, including a filthy play last week where he threw his hand up as if he was going deep, and then slammed on the brakes to nab a comeback  pass and ran it in for a score. He’s definitely developing a rapport with Drew Lock and just needs to work on bringing his completion percentage up from its current level of 49.2%. With mostly positive matchups coming up to end the season, his only top 5 defensive matchup is against the Chiefs, whom he already played against this year.

Terry McLaurin (WR-WAS): ECR WR6 (Borderline WR1/2)

Week 5 (vs. LAR): 3/7 for 26 yards – 4.10 fpts

Week 6 (@NYG): 7/12 for 74 yards – 10.90 fpts

Week 7 (vs. DAL): 7/11 for 90 yards, 1 TD – 18.50 fpts

Week 9 (vs. NYG): 7/8 for 115 yards, 1 TD – 21.00 fpts

So, with the possible exception of Antonio Gibson who has had some very nice performances, especially in weeks 4 and 7 with 20.80 and 18.80 fpts respectively, Scary Terry has been the only consistent fantasy performer on a week-to-week basis for Washington. In fact, he has not been targeted less than seven times a game this season.

Looking forward to the matchups in the future (Lions, Bengals, Cowboys, Steelers), the games against Detroit and Cincinnati might prove challenging but the Cowboys and Steelers are giving up a lot of points to WRs and Terry has already proven that it doesn’t matter who his QB is, only that there is a QB and he passes to Terry. Which will be the case as long as he’s healthy. It was good to see Smith still involving McLaurin heavily in the passing game and the Redskins are going to keep calling plays out there for #17 all season.

Ronald Jones (RB-TB) Wk 7 @ LV, 10.10; Wk 8 @NYG, 4.6; Wk 9 vs NO, 3.3 – After week 6, Ronald Jones was riding high. He was the first back this season to have 3 straight 100 yard games. He was seeing heavy usage in the passing game, but it all came crashing down in the last 3 weeks. He’s had 23 total carries over 3 games, which is not befitting an RB1 with 92% ownership in leagues. Worse yet, he’s combined for only 66 rushing yards during those games for a 2.8 yard per carry average. During this time, Leonard Fournette has seen more carries (27), so it’s a split at best going forward, with the larger portion of the split apparently going to Fournette. Jones may not be a lost cause altogether, but it’s going to be very hard to predict. If both backs are healthy, you might as well flip a coin to decide which guy will be better. If either gets hurt, the other one will resume a dominant role as the every down back. Matchups this week and in Week 16 are against teams giving up top 5 fantasy points to opposing RBs, so not all is lost with Jones. You’ll just need to pick your spots carefully and hope that the game flow is in your favor.

Jonnu Smith (WR-TEN): ECR TE13 (Borderline TE1/2, used to be TE1 earlier in the season)

Week 7 (vs PIT): 1/4 for 9 yards, 0 TDs – 1.40 fpts

Week 8 (@CIN): 2/2 for 29 yards, 0 TDs – 3.90 fpts

Week 9 (vs CHI): 2/2 for 32 yards, 1 TD – 10.20 fpts

Jonnu Smith is still the TE5 overall so far this season with 78.4 fpts, averaging 9.8 fpts per game. In a world where the point difference between the TE1 (Travis Kelce) and TE10 (Dalton Schultz) is 74.1, more points than the #8 TE (Robert Tonyan) has scored all year, you have to keep what success you can find close to the chest.

Smith returns to must-start territory after finally having a plus day in week 9, but it should be noted that the Colts are only giving up the 2^nd fewest points in the league to the TE position. Scary stuff from someone who is only getting 2-3 targets per game right now. So why is that? Well, the Titans have A.J. Brown healthy, Corey Davis actually doing things, and TE Anthony Firkser has been sucking up a similar number of targets per game as Smith, also with limited success.

I believe that this particular matchup will be a tough one and that Smith will most likely only be able to save his day with a touchdown, and the next few matchups that the Titans have to deal with (Ravens, Colts, Browns) are also in the top half of the league as far as preventing fantasy points from the position. Hold on to Smith for the fantasy playoffs in a deep league, but otherwise he’s a tough sell here. Of course, you may not be able to find anyone better in this year’s TE wasteland.

Over the years, the "third-year breakout" WR has turned into the "second-year breakout". Last season featured a great bunch of rookies that broke out right away. These are 5 guys we know well from their productive rookie seasons - all with WR1 upside, over 150 fpts, and 2+ pts/touch over the last year, along with a couple of guys on the bubble.

Justin Jefferson (ADP WR7)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 125 targets Jefferson had 88 receptions for 1400 yards and 7 TDs. 1 fumble. 230.2 fpts, 2.58 pts/touch. 

Jefferson’s 2020 season was certainly the ceiling of what you can expect from any rookie performance. With his ADP where it is this year, he’s being drafted as though he will repeat last year’s performance. While it’s hard to see Jefferson improving on his points per touch number or his yardage number, there is a little bit of room to increase his targets and TDs. If you are not put off by the vaccine disconnect between the locker room and the head coach in Minnesota, then by all means, Jefferson deserves to be drafted as a top 10 WR.

CeeDee Lamb (ADP WR12)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 111 targets Lamb racked up 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 TDs. 10 rushes for 82 yards, and 1 TD. 2 fumbles. 180.7 fpts, 2.15 pts/touch.

In 2020, Lamb did not record a 100-yard game once Dak Prescott went down for the season. He did, however, score 3 of his 5 touchdowns, so his knack for finding the end zone really has me encouraged. This season he will be the #1 WR on the Cowboys from week 1, so an increase in his targets should be a given, and his yardage should really get a healthy boost with Dak throwing the ball all season long. Lamb finished as the WR20 last year, so his bump in ADP this season seems to be just right. The only thing that would keep me from drafting him is that he will probably wind up going even earlier due to the Hard Knocks effect giving him an artificial boost.

Brandon Aiyuk (ADP WR23)

2020 Stats: 12 games, on 96 targets Aiyuk totaled 60 receptions for 748 yards and 5 TDs. 6 rushes for 77 yards, and 2 TDs. 154.5 fpts, 2.34 pts/touch.

Aiyuk is a little more volatile week to week compared to the previous two players, and I attribute this to the dominant running game in SF. His points per touch is really stunning but was boosted by his rushing stats. Last season he had 3 receptions or fewer in 5 of his 12 games - only one of those games produced a double-digit performance. This season, with Kittle back in the mix, as well as a top-tier rookie RB in Trey Sermon, I’m not certain that Aiyuk can overcome the volatility he saw last year. I expect some of his games to feature very little usage, however, if he is in line for 80 receptions (instead of last year’s 60) under a full load of games, that should bring him easily into the realm of a top 20 WR (last year’s WR20 scored 180 points, Lamb).

Tee Higgins (ADP WR24)

2020 Stats: 16 games, with 108 targets Higgins had 67 receptions for 908 yards and 6 TDs. 1 fumble. 161.1 fpts, 2.24 pts/touch.

Higgins has another rookie joining his WR group this year, but Ja’Marr Chase has struggled mightily in the preseason and will need time to adjust to the NFL, leaving Higgins and Boyd to carry the load in Cincy. Higgins did not see much of a drop in production once Burrow went down last season, so I would expect to see a similar stat line this season compared to last year, with a modest improvement for being a second-year player and much more familiar with the offense they’re running. Last year, Higgins finished as the WR30, so his ADP of WR24 is about as optimistic as I am willing to go for him this year. If you can get him in that spot or a few lower, then go for but, but I do not recommend reaching above WR24 for Higgins.

Chase Claypool (ADP WR25)

2020 Stats: G16, from 109 targets Claypool put up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Also had 2 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles. 183.9 fpts, 2.55 pts/touch.

Claypool’s 11 total TDs last year led all rookies in this group, thus boosting his visibility in fantasy and certainly helping out his points per touch. Expecting Claypool to reproduce his touchdown total is wishful thinking at best, so let’s assume there’s a small regression there. Claypool finished as the WR19 in points for last year, so dropping him down to WR25 on the ADP tracks with this regression. Ideally, for him, the Steelers offense will see an improvement - they were 12th in points and 24th in yards, so again, their scoring outpaced their actual offense and some kind of regression is to be expected. Best case scenario, the yardage increases, and the points do not dip by much at all. 

Close but no cigar… guys that aren’t quite there yet.

Jerry Jeudy (ADP WR30)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 113 targets Jeudy brought in 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 TDs. 2 fumbles. 131.6fpts, 2.53 pts/touch.

Jeudy actually saw a consistent amount of targets last season, with only 1 game being below 4 targets. His 16+ yards per reception are what help keep his points per touch in the elite group, but a catch rate of only 46% severely limited his ceiling in 2020. I expect this to go up with Teddy Bridgewater (66.5% completion rate) as his starting QB. You may look at Bridgewater over Lock as a bad thing for a downfield receiver like Jeudy, but don’t be fooled. In 2020, Bridgewater averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, while Lock was a full yard worse, 6.6 Y/A for his 2020 season. Jeudy will be just fine with Bridgewater (ignore what I said about this on earlier podcasts). Jeudy finished last year as the WR44, so him being drafted all the way up at WR30 shows optimism on the public’s behalf that Jeudy will get the ball in his hands more reliably than last year, and will probably score more touchdowns to boot. He’s a good value at WR30, though I wouldn’t reach past maybe WR28 for him.

Laviska Shenault (ADP WR42)

2020 Stats: G14, on 79 targets Shenault notched 58 receptions for 600 yards and 5 TDs. Also 18 rushes for 91 yards. 128.1 fpts, 1.69 pts/touch.

Shenault definitely trails this group of rookies statistically, coming in way behind the rest in terms of points per touch. He’s also going to be in a new offense with new HC Urban Meyer, and he has Marvin Jones, the Jags FA acquisition, as someone to soak up targets as well. Shenault has yet to fully break out - his career-high is just 86 yards, so it’s certainly possible that we see him take the next step this season. Since he’s got a new QB, a new coach, and a new WR presumably ahead of him in the pecking order, I don’t expect that step forward to be very large. Shenault finished as the WR47 last year, so going at 42 this year looks like good value to me. I wouldn’t mind taking him as high as WR40, though honestly, it’s still anyone’s guess as to what the Jaguars offense will look like after the super vanilla looks they showed us in the preseason.