Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 was a fantastic one for countless rookie WRs: Donte Moncrief, Allen Robinson, John Brown, Martavis Bryant, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin. Do I need to go on? This crop is quickly making a name for itself as one of the best rookie WR classes of all-time. Will it continue? I think it will. Week 9 will be a rough one for many teams with a whopping 6 teams on byes this week. With that in mind, there will be a few more names listed as borderline this week, so make sure to read a little deeper on those guys and see if they are a fit for your lineup this week. Every league is different, so I have to trust that you know your team better than I do. If I say a guy is a borderline starter at WR, and you have 3 top-10 WRs and him, don’t play him. Alright, let’s dive into week 9’s rookie matchups….
Rookies to Start:
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): The ‘Skins D is a tough matchup on paper, but it’s mainly because they’ve been keeping RBs out of the end zone, giving up just 2 TDs all year to them. McKinnon is still a good bet to pile up yards. DeMarco Murray did dismantle Washington a week ago, and some of his holes to run through were massive. McKinnon did put up a huge day against the very stout Bills’ run defense a couple weeks ago too. He’s still a safe RB2.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 9: @Mia.): Oliver will get at least one more week as the Chargers’ feature back with reports that Ryan Mathews won’t return until after their week 10 bye. Oliver wasn’t great last week, but he did manage 63 yards in his worst start of the year. The matchup with the ‘Phins isn’t an easy one, but it should be easier than last week’s. The Broncos were ready for a run-focused attack, and they shut it down. Expect a bounce-back and a solid start from Oliver this week.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Don’t be worried about the matchup with Saints’ corner Keenan Lewis after Lewis shut down Jordy Nelson last week. KB is a locked-in every week starter, and he just tallied nearly 100 yards against Richard Sherman last week. Expect another strong day.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 9: @Car.): On the other side of the Thursday night game, Brandin Cooks should be a safe option as well. The Saints finally started getting him the ball further downfield and it paid off big time. With the short week, there isn’t always time to install a whole new game plan, so Cooks should see similar work this week. The Panthers’ D is very burnable. Fire up Cooks as a WR3.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): With Cruz sidelined for the season, Beckham played on every offensive snap for the G-Men in week 7, and they used him all over the field. I’d expect that usage to continue, and production should continue to follow. You know the Colts can score, so the Giants should certainly be throwing enough to set up a very productive game for Odell. He has 3 TDs in 3 career games thus far.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Bryant has broken out in a big way over the past 2 weeks, and he’s done it as a part-time player. The part-time thing is about to change. Bryant is exactly the kind of player the Steelers need opposite Antonio Brown to keep defenses honest. He’s a big, fast, dynamic downfield receiver, and he’s really hard to cover in the red zone. I expect the Steelers to continue to get him involved, and the matchup this week is a good one. The Ravens have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, and they just lost their top CB Jimmy Smith for the year last week. I love Bryant as a WR3 this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Teddy has a primo matchup this week, but he’s still only a starting option in 2 QB leagues. He does make a solid QB 2 option this week though. Washington has allowed a 17:3 TD-INT ration so far and the 2nd most QB fantasy points per game. With that said, Teddy failed to capitalize on a plus matchup with the Bucs last week, and the Washington D looked rejuvenated against Dallas on Monday night. There’s serious upside here, but also some risk. 225 yards and 2 TDs would be a positive day.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Jax.): There’s a chance that Hill moves to must-start status if Gio Bernard is unable to go this week (he missed practice Wed. with a hip injury), but I’m assuming Bernard will play. The Jaguars have been better of late, but this still has serious blowout potential. Even if Bernard starts, I like the chances that Hill sees more work than usual. He’s a solid bet for a TD, and that makes him a real flex option.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): The Colts defense is not stellar against fantasy RBs, but they give up a lot of that damage in the passing game, where Williams is a non-factor. It looks like Rashad Jennings is likely to sit again, so there should be a healthy number of carries. I’d look for him to be in the neighborhood of 60-70 yards, but he’ll need to find the end zone to make you happy. He’s just a flex option.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Crowell is a dicey flex play this week, but one with plenty of upside. Head coach Mike Pettine said that the plan is to get Crowell more touches going forward, but also said he has trouble trusting him in tight games due to ball security issues. If the game stays close, it could be all Ben Tate in this one. If Cleveland is able to get out in front, Crowell could see extensive work. If he gets 10+ carries, I’d expect him to shine. I think he should approach that number.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Taliaferro has vanquished Bernard Pierce for the number 2 RB spot in Baltimore, and that has value since he’ll get goal line work. He should be a legitimate threat for a TD this week against a mediocre Pittsburgh run defense, but he could be light on yards with Forsett around. There is a slight chance that Forsett isn’t able to play this week, and if that happens, Taliaferro bumps up to being a solid starting option.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Evans has been remarkably consistent for a rookie. He’s caught exactly 4 passes in each of the last 5 games (he caught 5 in week 1), and he’s topped 50 yards in each of the last 4 games. He should put up similar numbers again this week. Having V-Jax around certainly limits his ceiling a bit.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Robinson gets listed as borderline because he faces the best defense in the league at limiting WR fantasy points, but the arrow is pointing way up for Robinson. He’s led the Jags’ WRs in snaps for each of the last 3 weeks and he has 4+ receptions in every game since week 2, 60+ yards in 5 of the last 7 games, and a TD in each of the last 2. He’s certainly worthy of WR3/flex consideration despite the matchup.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 9: @NYG): If you haven’t heard of Moncrief yet, you’re not paying attention. He’s a freak athlete who is quickly climbing past Hakeem Nicks on the Colts’ depth chart, and should start opposite T.Y. Hilton in Indy for a long time (after Reggie Wayne leaves). With Wayne out last week, Moncrief had a line of 7-112-1 on just 40 snaps. If Wayne sits again this week, Moncrief should be in your lineup. If Reggie plays, view him as more of a volatile WR3 option.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 9: @Dal.): Brown surprised in a big way in week 8 at the expense of teammate Michael Floyd, but a repeat is unlikely this week. Brown is still a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week, but I’d expect the Cards to try to do more to get the ball to Michael Floyd this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. SD): The matchup isn’t great this week and Landry had a weak game against Jacksonville, but I expect this game to stay competitive a bit longer than last week’s affair. As a result, Landry should have a better performance than last week, but it would be tough to bank on much more than 5 grabs and 50 yards.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 9: @Hou.): Matthews continues to see a healthy number of targets and catches, but it isn’t equating to big yards or TDs. He has 4+ catches in each of his last 5 games, but needs to start seeing more downfield targets. Maclin dominates this passing game too much to rely on Jordan. The matchup is a good one this week with the Texans allowing 24.6 WR points per game, so you could do worse that Matthews at WR3 in PPR leagues, but he’s a low-end option.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 9: @KC): Jace has a higher floor most weeks than the other rookie TEs simply because he is more heavily targeted. He has 26 catches over his past 5 games, and Mike Vick has a history of leaning on his tight ends. I would expect Amaro’s numbers to see a slight uptick with Vick in there. He should be a reasonable streaming TE option.
TE Crockett Gillmore, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): With a weak TE pool this year made weaker by 6 bye weeks, Gillmore has some streamer appeal with a decent matchup. Pittsburgh allows 9 points per game to opposing TEs, and Gillmore should see just about all of the TE targets. He needs a TD to be productive, but he could get one.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): The Bengals have allowed a 9:8 TD-INT ratio so far this season, and Bortles has been hemorrhaging turnovers so far this year. The team has set a goal of less than 8 picks over the final 8 games, and I think he starts off behind the pace he needs to hit that goal. He will likely be throwing a lot, so there is upside, but I would have a hard time starting him even in a 2QB league.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 9: @Sea.): Don’t get cute here. This is a brutal matchup. Carr is one of the worst QB plays of the week. If he were starting, I’d have rather played Colt McCoy vs. Minnesota that Carr here.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 9: @SF): Mason had a strong game in St. Louis the first time they met the 49ers, but I’d expect they’ll be more prepared for him this time around. He’ll see some work since obviously Fisher likes him in this matchup, but I would expect about 40 or 50 scoreless yards. There are better options available.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): Despite a pretty strong week 8 showing, Blue should still be firmly on the bench unless something happens to Arian Foster. He’s an important handcuff, but not much more right now.
RB Storm Johnson, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Denard Robinson was great again last week, cementing himself as the lead back in Jacksonville. Storm will do battle with Toby Gerhart for the change of pace work and has no place in your lineup or even on your roster in standard leagues.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Hurns got a little bit more involved last week than he had been in the few weeks prior, but the Bengals allow the fewest WR fantasy points and Hurns hasn’t topped 50 yards or scored a TD in any of his last 4 games.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Wk. 9: @Cle.): Jenkins has been playing plenty of snaps, and has been getting better with 5.8 and 6.6 points in his last 2 games, but the Browns’ D is better against TEs than you’d think. Jenkins is still a raw player and isn’t really reliable yet. I’d rather play Gillmore this week.
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 9: @Cle.): The Bucs brass have been very high on Sims, and it looks like he should be active for the first time this week, a week that Doug Martin might not be able to play. I’d expect Tampa to ease Sims in, but he should work in a committee with Bobby Rainey this week if Martin is out. Sims will be a factor in the passing game right away. He should be owned in all leagues, and could have a surprising debut this week in a plus matchup.
RB Marion Grice, ARI (Wk. 9: @Dal.): Grice is worth a stash in deeper leagues with Stepfan Taylor out with injury. Grice will see the change of pace work behind Andre Ellington and has the skills to be dangerous in the passing game. He could have big value if anything happens to Andre.
WR Paul Richardson, SEA (Wk. 9: vs. Oak.): Richardson hasn’t exactly made an impact on the stat sheet yet, but he did break a 47-yard kick return in last week’s win for the Seahawks, and I have a hunch he breaks a big play against a poor Raiders’ D. He’s not a guy you’re going to play, but could be a really cheap daily league option.
That’s it for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough bye week lineup decisions. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Having officially passed the halfway point for the 2020 Fantasy Football season, it's do or die time for most team managers to really step up their decision making and pickups from the waiver wire that can make all of the difference in those close matches. Ready to make your push for the playoffs? Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.
Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Jerick McKinnon, DeVante Parker, Marvin Jones, Mike Gesicki, Ross Dwelley, and the Tennessee Titans DST.
Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!
Dion Lewis (NYG) – Saquon is done for the season, and the Giants signed Devonta Freeman, but he won’t be ready yet. So, in Week 3 you can roll with Dion Lewis as a spot start. This is unlikely to last longer than a week or two, so if he has a big week, go ahead and put him on the trading block. Lewis found the end zone last week and had 14 touches against a tough Bears defense. This week, he’ll be facing the 49ers who have their own slew of injury problems. Week 1, they gave up double digit points to both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. I expect Lewis to be in the 15+ touch range this week, and he’ll get work mostly based on the fact that he is the only 3rd down back on the team, and I expect the Giants to find themselves in 3rd down often.
Joshua Kelley (LAC) – While not replacing anyone directly with injury (yes, this is a stretch), the Chargers did lose their starting QB and will need to tweak their game script with Herbert taking the reins. He will lean on a strong run game for now. Both Kelley and Ekeler are tied with 35 carries on the season, good for 6th most in the league. This week they will feast on the awful Panthers defense who are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. With Kelley getting even more carries than Ekeler in Week 2, I’m not hesitant to ride with a rookie this early in the season. Ekeler has always succeeded as the second guy, and this really appears to be a 1A/1B situation they’re setting up for the Chargers.
Jerick McKinnon (SF) – McKinnon has 6 carries this season, his first since 2017. Finally healthy, he’s basically the last man standing in the 49ers backfield for now. Tevin Coleman has been put on the IR and Raheem Mostert is likely to sit this week, so it’s McKinnon all the way. He already has 2 touchdowns this season and a 55 yard run last week, showing that he’s got the talent to take advantage of the opportunities that Kyle Shanahan creates for this offense. The Giants have given up 2 good fantasy games already this season, one to backup Benny Snell and one to David Montgomery, so there’s nothing to fear in terms of this week’s matchup, aside from perhaps turf monsters, which the 49ers seem overly concerned with.
Tre’Quan Smith (NO) – Last week, with Michael Thomas out, Smith had 5 receptions on 7 targets for 86 yards, all respectable. There’s going to be plenty of extra volume to go around if Michael Thomas sits another week. The Saints play the Packers this week, who have probably been the most dominant team in the NFC. However, if there’s one thing that they don’t do incredibly well, it’s limit WRs. The Packers are giving up the 9th most points to opposing WRs. While the Saints will surely lean on Alvin Kamara for a majority of their offense, they will still need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. I expect the Saints to play very well and clean up their sloppy play from Monday night. They are 10-1 following a loss since 2017, so I expect lots of fantasy fireworks in this game from both sides. Smith is a good option to slide in your lineup if you’ve been bitten by the injury bug.
Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Going in to last week’s game, Schultz had 14 career receptions. He added 9 more on Sunday on 10 targets and turned that into 88 yards and 1 TD. He did fumble once, but it seems like the Cowboys will be sticking with him due to Blake Jarwin’s torn ACL. This week is a big game against Seattle, one that could very well mirror last week’s script where Dallas finds themselves playing catchup. The Seahawks defense has been stout against the TEs so far this year, but they also haven’t faced much high profile competition yet. Dak Prescott is playing very well this season, so you need to trust in Dak to get the ball to the TE. The top players at TE have been so random this year (Smith, Fant, Gesicki, Reed, Hockenson all in the top 10), why not Schultz too?
Three weeks are in the books, and that means that it's time for us to check out some player trends. After all, in a row does a trend make. Or at least that's what Dave says. Anyways, there's been a ton of points this season, so let's take this time to look at the players who are consistently improving on a weekly basis. These are guys who are both studs that you might expect to see atop the fantasy rankings, and guys who are moving their way up from the depths of the preseason ADP charts.
James Robinson (RB-JAX) – Wk 1 vs IND – 9.5, Wk 2 @ TEN – 19.5, Wk 3 vs MIA – 27.9. Robinson was the lone bright spot on the Jaguars last week. He has trended up for three weeks in a row in lots of categories – total yards, total points, touchdowns scored and even receptions. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, he is in the top 20 for both carries and receptions. He’s the overall RB5 on the season. There’s almost no competition for him at his position on the Jaguars, so Robinson looks like he needs to be an every week starter. Coming up, Jacksonville goes to Cincy and Houston, followed by playing Detroit at home before their bye week. All of these teams are in the top 7 when it comes to giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Now is the time to try and acquire Robinson, as his value is only bound to go up.
Jerick McKinnon (RB-SF) – Wk1 vs ARI – 11.9, Wk 2 @ NYJ – 13.7, Wk 3 @ NYG – 15.2. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in all 3 games so far this season, a great trend for fantasy football. It may even hold for a while considering how banged up the 49ers backfield is. He was used sparingly in the first two weeks, getting only 9 total touches, though he was also used in the return game a bit. With nobody else to take carries from him last week, he had 17 total touches. That’s a usage rate that I expect to continue as long as Coleman and Mostert are sidelined. Even when they come back, it seems as though McKinnon will see some touches, and if his knack for scoring touchdowns continues, it would be silly to keep him on the sidelines. Coming up the 49ers have 3 straight home games against Philly, Miami and the Rams, all of whom are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up points to opposing RBs.
Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) – Wk 1 vs GB – 3.6, Wk 2 @ IND – 5.9, Wk 3 vs TEN – 27. Jefferson was the Vikings 1st round pick this year and he has been thrown right into the offense. He’s increased his receptions, targets and yards each week, topping out last week with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 175 yards. He also found the end zone and his 27 points made him the WR2 on the week. There is a Stefon Diggs sized hole on the Vikings offense, and Jefferson looks like he might fill it very nicely. Coming up are games at Houston and Seattle, followed by Atlanta at home and then the bye week. Houston is halfway respectable against the WR, but Seattle and Atlanta are giving up the 1st and 3rd most points to opposing WRs, respectively. It’s time to get Jefferson on your team and into your lineup.
Keenan Allen (WR-LAC) – Wk 1 @ CIN – 5.7, Wk 2 vs KC – 13.1, Wk 3 vs CAR – 23.7. Allen is known as one of the players with the largest share of his team’s targets on an annual basis. He is currently tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league leading 37 targets. His targets, receptions and yardage have all gone up week to week. Last week he added on a touchdown to make him WR4 on the week and WR12 on the season. Allen catching 13 passes on 19 targets from rookie Justin Herbert is a great sign as well. The distribution of the targets can suddenly shift when a new QB enters the scene, however it looks like Herbert is firmly focused on his top WR now. Upcoming games in Tampa and New Orleans, followed by hosting the Jets will all be tough. Tampa gives up the 12th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and they’re the least stingy of that group. I guess we finally found something that the Jets don’t suck at. Still, Allen is a solid WR1 and needs to be in your lineup every week, regardless of who is at QB for the Chargers.