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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now less than one week away from the regular season kickoff, and I’m sure you’re all like me and getting antsy for some real NFL action that counts. Today, I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class and turning my focus to the wide receivers. If you missed my previous fact sheets, you can find them here (QB), here (RB) and here (TE), but today we’re looking at the rookie wide receiver class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie receiver class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for the 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

FACT:

In half-PPR scoring, there were 3 rookie wide receivers who finished in the top-20 scorers at the position in 2020. In the five years prior to that, there were a total of 3 top-20 WR performances by rookies.

What it means:

We were spoiled last season when it came to rookie receivers. Justin Jefferson set the rookie receiving yardage record, Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb posted top-20 seasons, Tee Higgins posted a top-30 season, and Brandon Aiyuk clocked in as the WR33. No other season in the past 6 years had more than one rookie finish in the top-20 or more than 2 finish in the top-30. The 2021 class comes with a lot of expectations, with three top-10 draft picks among 10 receivers drafted in the first two rounds…but the answer to the question of who this year’s Justin Jefferson will be is probably no one. That doesn’t mean you should fade the entire class of receivers, but I’d avoid selecting any of this year’s rookie wide receivers among the top-24 taken in your drafts.

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 27 wide receivers selected in the top-10 overall NFL picks. Not one of them had a catch rate higher than 58.0% as a rookie.

The lowest league-average completion percentage in any season in that span was 58.2% in 2000.

What it means:

Team’s drafting in the top-10 picks of the NFL draft typically have a bad QB, or at least a young developing QB at the helm, and it can take time for a bad or inexperienced quarterback to get on the same page with an inexperienced receiver. The receivers picked in this range typically fit the same ‘alpha’ WR archetype. Nearly all of them are big, physical wide receivers who are threats down the field rather than possession receivers who thrive on short-yardage throws that are completed at a higher rate. Only 3 of the 27 receivers were shorter than 6’1”. Interestingly enough, two of this year’s three top-10 WR picks - Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith – are shorter than that.

A lower catch rate isn’t a death knell for a receiver, but it’s not great in PPR formats, as they’ll need to put up more yards per catch and/or more touchdowns to make up for the lack of receptions. There are reasons to be excited about each member of the trio, but if you see projections putting any of them above 1,000 receiving yards or finishing as a top-12 WR, take them with a very big grain of salt. I would wait until outside the top-30 WRs to draft any of the three.

FACT:

Elijah Moore’s 10.75 receptions per game in 2020 are the most by any power conference-wide receiver in a season since 1990 (minimum 8 games played).

What it means:

If you’re looking for the rookie receiver who is best positioned to be a valuable fantasy player in year one, look no further than Elijah Moore, especially in PPR leagues. Moore is being drafted 4-5 full rounds after Jaylen Waddle (who is being drafted 3-4 rounds after Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith), but he has as clear a path to 100 targets as any other rookie. With Jamison Crowder on the Covid reserve list, Moore should be in line for a big role in week 1 opposite Corey Davis, and I don’t expect him to look back. Jaylen Waddle will have Devante Parker and Will Fuller in front of him. DeVonta Smith is in an offense that should lean heavily on the run game and will target their two tight ends a bunch. Ja’Marr Chase has struggled to stand out in camp and has two proven receivers in front of him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Rashod Bateman will open the season on injured reserve with a groin injury. Even if he returns by week 4, it’ll take time to build up to a full workload. Moore could push Corey Davis for the Jets’ team lead in targets this season if he performs well early in the season. He has a ton of upside and can be had with one of your last picks in the draft. I’d much rather draft Moore late than take one of Smith/Waddle/Chase at their current ADPs.

FACT:

Since 2000, 5 wide receivers have tallied 100 or more receptions as a freshman in college. One of them is Rondale Moore. Three of the other 4 have finished an NFL season as a top-12 PPR wide receiver. Two of them have finished a season as the overall WR1.

What it means:

The players to accomplish the feat were Rondale, Michael Crabtree, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and Richie James. Obviously, James hasn’t done much at the NFL level, but the other 3 are pretty lofty company. Rondale isn’t a guy I would be targeting in redraft formats outside of a late dart throw, but he’s got a ton of upside in dynasty leagues. He’s going to have to fight for playing time in year one with veterans DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk around, but that could give you an opportunity to get him for a bargain later this season if the manager who drafted him gets impatient or frustrated. He’s a perfect fit for the Cardinals’ spread attack and has a legitimate 100-catch upside at the NFL level once he ascends the depth chart. Monitor his performance early in the season, and make an offer for him if he isn’t playing a bunch in the first month or two of the season.

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 53 NFL wide receivers to catch a pass that weighed less than 170 pounds (per pro-football-reference.com). Only 4 of them have caught for 800 or more yards in a season.

Tutu Atwell weighed in at 149 pounds at his last NFL medical check before the NFL Draft.

What it means:

Atwell’s diminutive size may limit him to being a gadget player or return man in the NFL. The 149-pound number is a little bit for shock value here – Atwell reportedly weighed in around 160 pounds not long after the draft, but even at 160 his historical outlook isn’t great. The last time a player under 170 pounds caught for 800+ yards in a season was James Jett in 1997. As the league evolves into a more pass-heavy game with more spread offenses, smaller players like Atwell should have a better chance to succeed, but Atwell is on the extreme end of that scale. There are other small-ish receivers in this class that were drafted early this year – 7 of the 10 WRs drafted in the first two rounds don’t have the prototypical ‘alpha WR’ size – but the lightest any of the other 6 were clocked was DeVonta Smith at 166 pounds at the same medical combine where Atwell was at 149.

Tutu does have several things working in his favor. Sean McVay’s offenses have consistently been among the best in the league, Matt Stafford is an upgrade at QB with a strong deep ball, and Atwell has wheels and 2^nd-round draft capital. He has a fighting chance, but I’d like to see him show something at the NFL level before buying in. I’d be avoiding him entirely in redraft leagues and treating him as a late flyer in dynasty.

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 37 wide receivers drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft that reached 24 years old prior to or during their rookie season. Only 10 of them reached 500 or more receiving yards, and 11 failed to catch for even 100 yards as a rookie.

What it Means:

D’Wayne Eskridge probably isn’t worth even a late dart throw in redraft leagues. I love Eskridge as a player, and as someone that went to Western Michigan, Eskridge is a guy that I want to root for, but he’s facing long odds to be a useful piece of fantasy teams early in his career. We’ve seen some recent successes from older rookie receivers – Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Cooper Kupp all cleared 800 receiving yards in year one – but none of that trio joined a team that had a pair of 125+ target receivers returning. The Seahawks already ranked just 17^th in passing attempts last season, and head coach Pete Carroll has expressed a desire to run the ball more in 2021. There just isn’t enough room for Eskridge to carve out a meaningful role in this offense in year one unless there’s an injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett ahead of him.

FACT:

The New York Giants returning players accounted for 72.2% of the team’s passing targets in 2020, including their 3 most-targeted players, who each had at least an 18% target share.

The Giants get Saquon Barkley back from injury this season and added Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph in free agency.

What it means:

Kadarius Toney wasn’t drafted to be a major part of the offense in his rookie year. Using a first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to play a major role in year one certainly doesn’t feel like a wise use of that pick, but it appears to be exactly what the Giants did here. They’ll find ways to get him on the field and get the ball into his hands – he’s a dynamic playmaker after the catch – but he’s not going to give you consistent production for fantasy leagues without some injuries in front of him. He would likely need to get himself ahead of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton on the depth chart to play a meaningful rookie role, and I don’t think that’s likely. It would be a positive rookie year if he were even able to match Henry Ruggs' output from last season (26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TD). There’s no need to consider him in anything but the deepest of redraft leagues, and he should be viewed as more of a stash for the future in dynasty.

FACT:

Since 2000, 238 wide receivers that were drafted after the 3^rd round of the NFL draft caught a pass as a rookie. Only 4 of them (1.7%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

In that same span, there were 279 undrafted wide receivers who caught at least one pass in their rookie season. Again, only 4 of them (1.4%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

What it means:

In redraft leagues, you should avoid drafting rookie receivers who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. Receivers in this group are such a longshot to produce at a high level that you should cross them off your draft list ahead of time. There have been successes to come from this group, but you should wait until you see something from them and pick them up on the waiver wire rather than draft them. There has been a lot of buzz this offseason for Amon-Ra St. Brown, both because he has a cool name and because the Lions have a dearth of WR talent, and there has been a little bit of noise more recently for Tylan Wallace as the Ravens have been depleted by injuries at the receiver position. Let other teams in your league take the chance on those guys. I’m not a scout, so I’d rather not assume I’m capable of identifying which player from this range is going to be the outlier who does produce as a rookie.

That’s all I’ve got for the receivers. Hopefully, it helps you if you have a draft coming up this weekend. Sorry if it seems like I’m a downer on your favorite rookie wide receivers this season. I do think there is going to be quality that comes from this wide receiver class, but I also think the 2020 class has thrown our expectations for them in year one out of whack.

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions about the rookie WR crop or want to yell at me about anything written above, and make sure to come back to check out the weekly Rookie Report articles in-season as well. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally made it back to the NFL regular season, and I’m excited to be back to look at which rookies can lead your teams to the win column each week. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, welcome! Every week I’ll look at the matchups of all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what you should do with them for your lineups. I’ll group the players into 4 categories – Rookies to Start, Borderline Rookies, Rookies to Sit, and Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options. While those category names are pretty straightforward, don’t take them too literally. You should always read the explanation of why I have a player listed in the category he is and apply it to your league rules and roster. If I list Javonte Williams as a rookie to start, and you drafted him as your 4^th running back, you might still have better options and should leave him sidelined. I also may call a QB borderline specifically in 2-QB formats…that doesn’t mean you should consider him over a top-12 option. I just want to supply some useful info so you can make the best decisions for your own starting lineup each week. Before we get into the Week 1 report, I wanted to share my redraft rookie top-12 for the 2021 season:

1. RB Najee Harris, PIT
2. RB Javonte Williams, DEN
3. TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
4. WR DeVonta Smith, PHI
5. WR Elijah Moore, NYJ
6. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
7. RB Trey Sermon, SF
8. WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA
9. WR Terrace Marshall Jr, CAR
10. QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX
11. QB Zach Wilson, NYJ
12. QB Justin Fields, CHI

Week 1 is always a difficult one to predict for the rookies. Coaches often don’t want to tip their hand as to how they’d like to use their rookies in the preseason, and we wind up trying to read the tea leaves and deciphering the true meaning behind coachspeak to sort things out. Those tea leaves got even harder to read this year with just 3 preseason games instead of 4. That will throw off the normal preseason routines and usage patterns that we’re used to. Even if you think you’ve got a good handle on how a player will be used, you’ll still have to figure out how difficult of a matchup they’re facing. The most objective measure we have for this is how the team fared against the position last year. The only problem with that is these defenses aren’t the same as they were last year. Case in point, the Atlanta Falcons allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers last season than any other defense…but in 2019 they allowed just the 15^th most. Things can change a lot in a year. With all of that in mind, bear with me as I try to sift through what to do with your rookies in week 1.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): If you have Najee on your team, you likely had to select him by the early second round, and you can’t sit him week 1. The Steelers’ offensive line woes have been a hot topic throughout the offseason, but the Bills were just a middling run defense last year and the volume will be there for Najee in week 1. Buffalo ranked 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2020 and allowed the 12^th-most points per game to the position. This probably isn’t going to be a ceiling week for Najee, so he probably isn’t the best DFS target, but he should be a solid RB2 in the opener.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): You didn’t draft Kyle Pitts to sit him. If you have him on your team, he should probably be in the starting lineup this week. The Eagles allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game last season, and while they have upgraded the secondary with the addition of Steven Nelson from the Steelers, this is far from an elite unit. The Falcons are likely to use Pitts all over the formation. He’ll face stiff competition when he lines up outside against Darius Slay and Nelson, but he should have a much bigger advantage when he’s lined up in-line against a safety, or in the slot against 5’9” Avonte Maddox. If Pitts is who we think he is, this is a spot where he should smash.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): The Jets’ rookie signal-caller gets a soft landing in his NFL debut facing off with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers played a conservative defense last season that attempts to limit big plays, but they were picked apart underneath. The Jets' new OC Mike LaFleur brings an efficient system with him from San Francisco that could have a field day against that sort of defense. Carolina allowed the 8^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs and ranked 23^rd in pass defense DVOA despite allowing just 6 pass plays of 40+ yards all season. Phil Snow returns as defensive coordinator, so the scheme should be similar in 2021. Carolina’s defense crumbled down the stretch last season, allowing 3+ passing TDs in 5 of their final 8 games, and they’ll need a big impact from first-round rookie Jaycee Horn if they want to shore that up. The Panthers are favored by 4.5 points in this game, so the game script should keep Wilson throwing. He has a very real chance to make a big splash in week 1. He should be considered a solid QB2 option in the opening week.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 1: @Hou.): I mentioned that Zach Wilson gets a soft landing in his debut, but the number 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence gets an even softer one. The Texans ranked 29^th in the league in pass defense DVOA in 2020 and traded away their top cornerback Bradley Roby this week. Roby was going to be out due to suspension anyway this weekend, but the Texans were absolutely shredded through the air without him last season, giving up an average of 278 passing yards per game and multiple total TDs to the opposing QB in all 6 games. They even allowed Jake Luton to throw for 304 yards and Brandon Allen to throw for 371 with Roby sidelined. The Texans have revamped their roster over the offseason, but it now looks like one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and the defense should be a rag-tag bunch. My biggest concern for Lawrence is that we may see a lot of handoffs to James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. In addition to being awful against the pass last year, the Texans also allowed the most rushing yards, the highest yards per carry average, and the 2nd-most rushing TDs. Those volume concerns are why I view Lawrence as a lower-end QB2 in his NFL debut.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Smith is in line to be the Eagles WR1 in the season opener, and on paper, the matchup looks good. The Falcons allowed more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team last season. They did revamp much of the back end of their defense over the offseason but none of the new additions seem likely to be big difference makers. Fabian Moreau was solid for Washington last season, allowing a passer rating below 80 on passes into his coverage, but that wouldn’t scare me off Smith this week. My bigger concerns are that the two tight ends may be the top two targets in what shapes up as a lower volume passing attack. Smith has a sky-high ceiling in this matchup, but probably shouldn’t be started ahead of any top-24 WRs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Chase’s training camp struggles have been discussed ad nauseam throughout the last month, and while I think they’re being overblown it’s enough to worry me for week 1. I don’t think Chase actually thinks the NFL ball is harder to catch because it’s a little bigger and doesn’t have stripes. I do think there is a little rust still from him not playing football last year, but that will shake off quickly once the games start counting. Chase is still slated to start in an offense that had enough passing volume to get 3 different receivers to 100 targets last season even with QB Joe Burrow missing 6 games. He’s going to see volume, and he opens the season against a Vikings team that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game in 2020. The Vikings did bring in Patrick Peterson to help shore up that pass defense, but it remains to be seen how much the 31-year-old corner has left in the tank. He allowed a passer rating of 98.2 on throws into his coverage last season. I’d fade Chase to a small degree early in the season while he works out those training camp kinks, but he has WR2 upside this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 1: @NE): Waddle enters week 1 with some sneaky upside as Will Fuller finishes serving the last game of his PED suspension. Waddle is listed as a starting receiver for the Dolphins, he plays with a QB that he caught passes from in college, and he faces a Patriots’ defense this week that is missing their #1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England was stingy against receivers in 2020, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but they were just 18^th in pass defense DVOA. Waddle wasn’t a big volume receiver in college. He never topped 45 receptions in a season, but he’s a big-play threat and the Dolphins have emphasized pushing the ball downfield in camp this season. Waddle isn’t an especially safe play this week, but his ceiling looks something like what Marquise Brown did in his NFL debut 2 years ago (4-147-2). A more realistic hope is probably 4-5 catches with one big play sprinkled in. I’d consider him in the WR4 range this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Jones has earned the starting job in New England to open the season, but I wouldn’t be eager to get him into lineups in week 1. I expect the Patriots to play conservatively and lean on the run game, and the Dolphins return 9 out of 11 starters from a defense that allowed the 2^nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the league last year. I don’t expect Mac to have enough passing volume to put up big yardage, and this defense isn’t one that’s likely to give up a lot of TDs. I’d wait on getting Mac into starting lineups.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): This may be a moot point to mention with Jimmy Garoppolo officially named as the week 1 starter on Wednesday, but the 49ers tinkered with a 2-QB approach in the preseason and may utilize that to some degree during the regular season. Don’t be surprised if Lance plays a few series while this game is competitive, and since this game has one of the biggest point spreads of the week at 7.5 there may be some garbage time late. It won’t amount to enough opportunity to make Lance a useful week 1 option, and he may even put a dent into Jimmy G’s upside in this inviting matchup.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Stevenson was one of the league’s breakout performers in the preseason as he piled up 216 yards and 5 touchdowns across 3 games, but he’ll almost certainly open the season playing second fiddle to Damien Harris in this run game. The Dolphins are more vulnerable on the ground than they are through the air, but if you play Stevenson, you’re hoping he steals the goal-line work from Harris and gets into the end zone.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Gainwell enters week 1 of the season without his role clearly defined. The expectation is that he’ll mix in on passing downs as that’s an area he’s specialized in and Miles Sanders has had issues catching the football in practice, but it’s possible we see Boston Scott taking some of that work as well. The Falcons did allow the 9^th-most receptions per game to opposing running backs in 2020, but also the 6^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game. I’d wait a week or two to see how this backfield shakes out before trusting Gainwell in lineups.

RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 1: @Was.): Don’t be fooled by the news that Austin Ekeler is suddenly questionable for Sunday’s game and think that Rountree has some sneaky upside. If Ekeler sits, the Chargers will likely handle the backfield with a committee approach with Justin Jackson leading the way. Washington allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game a season ago and still boasts one of the best front 7’s in the NFL. Don’t fall for the trap here.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): There’s no reason to consider Evans for your lineups or go scoop him off the waiver wire just yet but keep an eye on how the Bengals use him in week 1. The team’s offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said that Evans has “the most natural hands for a running back that I’ve ever been around.” Callahan has been around Gio Bernard, Joe Mixon, Jalen Richard, Doug Martin, and Theo Riddick, among others. Joe Mixon is expected to have a workhorse role, but there is still a chance that Evans is able to carve out a receiving role, so it’s a situation worth monitoring.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Moore draws a good matchup for his NFL debut, but it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll get. The Titans allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game last season but reports throughout camp have made it clear that DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green will be the top 2 targets in this offense, and there’s no guarantee Moore is playing ahead of Christian Kirk in Week 1. No team played more 4-wide receiver sets than the Cardinals, and only the Bills even came close, but that still accounted for just 21% of their offensive snaps. If Moore is behind Kirk, he won’t be on the field nearly enough to help you. Monitor his usage in this one, but I wouldn’t put him in the Week 1 lineup.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): If you drafted Marshall in your fantasy leagues, you may have circled his week 1 matchup with the Jets as a great opportunity to get him in the lineup. The Jets were the worst team in the NFL last season and ranked 28^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be so quick to trust the rookie. He still enters the season 4^th in the target pecking order behind Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson, and this may be a game where they don’t need to throw it a ton. Despite their defensive woes against the pass, the Jets still only allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game. I’m not sure there will be enough passing volume to go around to make Marshall a useful piece in season-long leagues. He does cost the minimum on DraftKings, however, and may be worth a shot in DFS tournaments.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Generally speaking, the Texans are an offense that should be avoided for fantasy purposes, and that’s especially true when you’re talking about players who aren’t even slated to start. Collins has seemingly been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Chris Conley in recent weeks, and the Texans are expected to lean heavily on the running game when they can since they have a plethora of experienced running backs and start Tyrod Taylor at QB. Game script is going to make that hard to do some weeks, but this week against Jacksonville is a game where the Texans may manage to be competitive. The Jaguars are favored by just 3 points. Collins looks like he’ll be the WR3 in a low-volume passing attack in this one. Steer clear.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk.1: vs. SF): ARSB has been a popular name as a fantasy sleeper this year since the Lions appear to be devoid of much WR talent on the roster, but he’s listed as a 3^rd-stringer on the Lions’ most recent unofficial depth chart. There is an opportunity for a Lions’ WR to step up in the opener – the 49ers were just a middling defense against wide receivers last year and may be missing starting CB Emmanuel Mosley on Sunday, and game script is likely to keep the Lions throwing. I just don’t have any confidence that St. Brown is the guy who steps up in this one. I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Eskridge was a fun player to watch during his time at Western Michigan, but he’s probably got work to do to carve out a role with the Seahawks. In 2020, Seattle wide receivers not named DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett combined for 69 targets all year (nice). That works out to a 4.3 per game split between all the other wide receivers. That’s going to have to be significantly different in the new offense under Shane Waldron for Eskridge to find his way to a meaningful rookie role. Waldron spent the past 3 years as the LA Rams passing game coordinator, and in the past two years, the Rams’ WR3 has averaged just over 75 targets. That would at least be a start for Eskridge, but I’d like to see that play out on the field before I insert the rookie into lineups. The Colts were a middling WR defense last year, not a bad one, so this isn’t the week to take a swing on an unknown.

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Atwell was heavily targeted in the preseason, but he managed to turn 29 targets into 18 catches for just 129 yards. His usage made Diontae Johnson look like a downfield threat. I don’t expect Atwell to see a lot of snaps in week one as he’s listed behind both DeSean Jackson and Van Jefferson on the Rams’ depth chart. Even if he does see some time on the field, his preseason usage hints at him only having value in the deepest PPR leagues for now. Keep him parked on the bench this week.

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Smith-Marsette could open the season as the Vikings WR3, but that role on this team isn’t one that’s going to result in useful fantasy production, even with Irv Smith out. Last season the Vikings top two tight ends and their WR3 combined for just 110 targets, with only 30 of them going to WR3 Chad Beebe. Even if all that target share was divvied up evenly between Tyler Conklin and Smith-Marsette, we’re still only talking about less than 3.5 targets per game for each guy. Leave Ihmir on the waiver wire unless he starts to produce.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): Freiermuth is likely going to open the season as the TE2 in Pittsburgh behind Eric Ebron, so he should be avoided in fantasy lineups for week 1. If you play DFS and thought Freiermuth had sneaky upside facing a Bills defense that allowed the 6^th-most TE points per game last season, keep in mind that they were missing Matt Milano for 6 games last season, and they were shredded by tight ends in those 6 games. With Milano on the field, only 1 tight end all year reached 10 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring against the Bills.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 1: @NYG): Williams enters week one as part of what appears to be a 1-2 running back punch to start the season for the Broncos. The expectation is that Melvin Gordon will be the 1, and Javonte the 2, but don’t be surprised if that turns out to be reversed. Gordon played in the final preseason game while Javonte was held out despite not being injured. This usually means the team has big plans for a player and wants to make sure they don’t get hurt in a meaningless game. Gordon did miss time earlier in camp with a groin injury, so there’s a chance he was only playing because he hadn’t gotten any live game reps in the first two preseason contests, but Javonte being held out is certainly a good sign for the rookie. The Broncos want to lean on the run game when they can with game-manager Teddy Bridgewater at QB. They ranked 13^th in the league in rushing attempts last season. They face the Giants in week 1. New York allowed the 14^th-most RB points per game last season – not good, not terrible, but they also lost their run-stopping nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. If Javonte is the leader of this committee, I like his chances to see 15+ touches in week 1 and return RB2 value. He costs the minimum on DraftKings and could be a difference-maker if you have the fortitude to get him in the lineup in season-long leagues this week.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): Sermon may not have taken the starting job right away like some were predicting, but he still has an opportunity for a nice debut. Raheem Mostert will be the starter, but there may be enough to go around for both players to be productive in this game. The 49ers are one of the heaviest favorites of the week, and the Lions ranked 27^th in run defense DVOA en route to allowing the most RB fantasy points per game in the league. San Francisco hasn’t been shy about their desire to run the ball a lot this season, and the Lions aren’t likely to be the team to prevent them from doing that. Sermon should mix in a fair amount as a change of pace back to Mostert and may see some extra work down the stretch if the 49ers get out in front. A finish in the RB3 range would be a successful debut for the rookie.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): With Jamison Crowder still struggling to get himself back from the Covid reserve list, Elijah Moore is in line to start in the slot in week 1, and a big debut could be in the offing. Corey Davis got a lot of attention after he was targeted 10 times in just 13 routes run during the preseason, but Moore is likely to remind us that there’s another pretty good receiver on the Jets on Sunday. The rookie averaged nearly 11 catches per game at Ole Miss last year and will have the most favorable CB matchup in the opener. Davis should have success against heralded rookie Jaycee Horn, but there should be plenty of room for Moore to thrive against a defense that allows a lot of short and intermediate completions. I like Moore to top 75 receiving yards in his debut, and a touchdown would be a nice cherry on top.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Look, I don’t like writing Toney’s name here any more than you like reading it here. The Giants reached for him in the first round of the NFL Draft, and he missed time early in camp and didn’t really stand out until recently. Despite that, the Giants pass-catcher situation for week one is still very much in flux. Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Kyle Rudolph all missed time with injury recently, and the Giants don’t want to let Saquon fully loose in the opener either. Engram has been ruled out for week one, and while Golladay and Rudolph are both set to play it remains to be seen how the targets will shake out. This isn’t an easy matchup. The Broncos ranked 11^th in pass defense DVOA last season, and then went out this offseason and added standout cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and rookie Patrick Surtain II. Toney is still a threat to take any touch to the house. If he gets a handful of catches and breaks one for a long TD, he’s going to be a big value at his minimum price tag on DraftKings. Pay attention to any news about how the Giants intend to use their pass catchers in Week 1 if you’re considering using Toney.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): Brown gets a big opportunity in week 1 after Curtis Samuel pulled up lame with a hamstring issue at practice Wednesday. Brown should slide into a starting spot opposite Terry McLaurin against the Chargers in the opener. The matchup isn’t an ideal one for him. Brown excelled down the field in his college career at North Carolina, averaging 20+ yards per catch in each of his last two college seasons. While that pairs well with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, it doesn’t pair well with the matchup against Los Angeles. Only 5 teams allowed fewer 20+ yard receptions than the Chargers last season. The Chargers did lose starting corner Casey Hayward in free agency, but they also get Derwin James back for 2021 after the standout safety missed all of last season. There are also plenty of mouths to feed in this offense with McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic and Adam Humphries all around as well. It’s still difficult to completely fade Dyami at his minimum price tag on DraftKings given his big-play potential and his gunslinger QB. If you have the roster space he’s worth a stash in season-long leagues on the chance that he breaks out in week 1. Curtis Samuel was moved to the injured reserve on Friday.

That’s all I’ve got for Week 1. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to do a final check before kickoff to be sure you don’t start any inactive players. I’ll be back each week to give you a rookie rundown throughout the season, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the rookies or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

8-0

It’s good to be a team out west. Following Monday night’s victory by the Raiders, both the NFC and AFC West divisions are a perfect 8-0. They stand in stark contrast to the NFC North, which started 0-4. The Raiders certainly had the most exciting victory of the bunch, but honorable mentions go to Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes kept his perfect September streak alive while moving to 35 TDs and 0 INTs during September. Kudos also go to the Chargers, who sit in last place after a very tough victory over the Washington Football Team. The Seahawks share their last-place standing, after having a ho-hum victory over a non-conference team in Indianapolis. 

3 Rookie WR Touchdowns

The three wide receivers who were taken in the first round of the 2021 draft all had an immediate impact on their respective teams. Devonta Smith started off the scoring for the Eagles, finding the end zone on an 18-yard pass from Jalen Hurts halfway through the first quarter. It would up being all the scoring the Eagles would need against an anemic Falcons team. Not to be outdone, Ja’Marr Chase caught a 50 yard TD from his former (and current) teammate Joe Burrow as time was running down in the first half of their game against Minnesota. Chase caught 5 of 7 targets for 101 yards and a TD, so clearly, the “lines on the ball” thing was a bit overblown. We should all cut rookies some slack when they’re accidentally candid with a reporter. Based on the public’s reaction, we don’t have to worry about him being candid any time in the near future. In the afternoon slate of games, Jaylen Waddle got in on the fun, scoring from 3 yards out early in the second half. All of these rookies’ teams won on Sunday.

0 TDs

Week 1’s top scoring fantasy RB managed to score the most points of the week and didn’t even find the end zone. Of course, it’s a familiar name - Christian McCaffrey put up 23.2 fantasy points, a low total for the top scorer of the week. He had 187 yards from scrimmage, or 49% of his team’s total offense. Add 9 receptions to that, and he had enough points to lead a week where only 4 other players managed to top the 20 point mark. Most notable in that group are Jamaal Williams and De’Andre Swift, who were avoided like the plague in most drafts and seemed to fall pretty far until being picked late. Both Williams and Swift had 8 receptions, over 100 yards from scrimmage, and scored a touchdown in the Lions’ opening day loss to the 49ers.

12-100 Yard Receiving Games

The NFL truly is a passing league in 2021. There were 12 wide receivers who hit the 100-yard mark, versus only 5 running backs who hit 100 rushing yards. Leading the way was one of the top WRs picked in the draft, Tyreek Hill, who put up a massive 197 yards on 11 receptions and 15 targets. He also found the end zone in the Chiefs' comeback victory, and thus assuring the Chiefs multiple mentions in this column, as is tradition. One rookie joined the group over 100 yards, the aforementioned Ja’Marr Chase, squeaking by at 101 yards. An old favorite also found himself in the group - Antonio Brown, who put up 5 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in his best opening day performance since 2017. Finally, an honorable mention must go to Darren Waller, who cracked the 100-yard mark on his game-tying TD in the 4th quarter of last night’s game and managed to be the only tight end to hit the century mark in week 1 of this season.

5 Passing TDs

...And 148 passing yards. What? The Jameis Winston era in New Orleans (via Jacksonville) has begun with a stat line that the NFL has never seen. Never before has someone thrown for 5 TDs on less than 150 passing yards. Along with zero INTs, I suppose that Lasik surgery worked wonders. Winston had 14 completions on 20 attempts, totaling 29.62 fantasy points, good for the QB4 on the week. He is currently owned in only 56% of Fleaflicker leagues. The QB3 on the week, Jared Goff, is only owned in 40% of leagues! The wire is going to be hot this week. But I digress. The story of this game was the Packers scoring only 3 points. I don’t think that there’s much to worry about on the offensive side for Green Bay, but I do think their defense can be exploited in fantasy matchups all season long.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the part of the season a lot of fantasy managers dread: the bye weeks. The Saints, 49ers, Falcons and Jets all have the week off, so teams may be reaching a little deeper into the player pool for usable options, and there’s a chance that a rookie could help you fill in for a trusted starter like Deebo Samuel or Cordarrelle Patterson. Week 5 was a wild one for the rookie crop. Davis Mills stunned us all by finishing as the QB6 for the week and posting the best fantasy game by a rookie QB against New England of Bill Belichick’s entire run with the Pats. Trevor Lawrence also finished the week as a QB1, while Trey Lance posted a reasonable debut in which he rushed for 89 yards. The rest of the rookie QBs each posted clunkers, none more disappointing than Zach Wilson against the Falcons in London.

Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase were the stories of the week among the skill position rookies. Toney and Pitts each posted breakout games that landed them at the WR7 and TE3 spots for the week respectively, while Chase kept doing what he’s been doing all season. Ja’Marr has been doing things that only he and Randy Moss have done to start their careers at such a young age. Can these guys keep it up? What other rookies can step up in week 6? You’ve come to the right place to find out.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 6…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Harris finally had the kind of breakout rushing game that we’ve been waiting for in week 5, torching what had been a good Denver run defense for 122 yards and a score. The usage continues to be elite (89% of the team RB touches to date), and he gets a tasty matchup in week 6. The Seahawks have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game so far this season, and Harris has finished as a top-10 back in 4 straight weeks. There’s no need to overthink this one. Harris deserves consideration for the captain spot in showdown lineups for this game.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Speaking of not overthinking things, Chase has topped a dozen fantasy points every single week and posted 3 top-15 performances in his first 5 games, and this week he gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Chase’s specialty thus far has been pulling in the deep throws, and it’s an area where Detroit has struggled defensively. He has a league leading four receptions of 40+ yards and his average reception comes 14.2 yards downfield, the 4^th highest mark in the league among qualified receivers. The average air yards per completion against the Lions is 9.15 yards. Every other defense in the league has an average below 8. My only concerns for Chase this week are that the Bengals might not have to throw the ball a lot, and that Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd may get some squeaky wheel treatment after both failed to reach 40 yards last week, but those are minor concerns. This week’s matchup really is perfect for Chase. He’s a top-15 option in Detroit.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tampa Bay’s defense this year has been the definition of the phrase ‘pass funnel.’ Opposing offenses have abandoned trying to run against the Bucs stout front early in games, dropping back to pass on nearly 71% of their plays (for context, the Bucs have the most pass-heavy offense in the league and drop back to throw on 69.7% of their plays). All of that passing by their opponents has led to some big fantasy days for wide receivers against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game this season and has coughed up at least 275 passing yards to every team they’ve faced so far. For the season, Smith has commanded 23% of the Eagles’ passing targets and 41% of the air yards. One major area the Bucs have struggled is in allowing yards after the catch, and that isn’t an area where DeVonta has shined, but this game still has blow-up potential for the rookie. He should be treated as a WR2 this week and may be worth paying up for in showdown slates for Thursday night.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Jones posted another efficient performance in week 5 that doesn’t light up fantasy box scores. He did throw one interception but completed over 76% of his passes and posted his highest yards per attempt mark of the season at 7.7. He’s now completed over 73% of his passes in 4 of his 5 games and thrown for 270+ yards in 3 of them. This week he faces a Dallas defense that has spent a lot of time playing with the lead and has coughed up a lot of passing yards as a result. The Giants were the first team all season to not throw for 300 yards against them…finishing with 294. They’ve given up crooked yardage totals each and every week, but also have 2 interceptions each and every week. It’s created an odd situation where they rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. Jones, like most QBs the Cowboys have faced, will likely have to throw a lot to keep pace. If he can avoid the turnovers that have plagued other QBs to face Dallas, he should finish as a strong QB2 this week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): With news breaking that Damien Williams was added to the Covid reserve list on Thursday, Herbert suddenly finds himself positioned for a strong opportunity against Green Bay this week. Tarik Cohen isn’t walking through that door any time soon for Chicago, so Herbert likely will play a workhorse role with Ryan Nall mixing in on occasion. Green Bay is a burnable run defense, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been able to mask that issue with positive game scripts that keep their opponents throwing, but with Bill Lazor calling plays the Bears have had at least 16 RB rush attempts in 8 of 9 games, and 25+ attempts in 6 of 9 since the start of last season. I don’t expect them to put this game on Justin Fields’ shoulders. Herbert’s not much of a pass catcher, but he’s a virtual lock for 15+ carries in a solid matchup. He’s a low-end RB2 this week.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LV): Melvin Gordon had a new ailment pop up on the injury report this week, now dealing with a hip injury in addition to a leg contusion he was dealing with last week, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to miss this game. That likely means he and Williams will continue to split the backfield work evenly, making both uninspiring flex options that you hope get into the end zone. The Raiders do allow the 9^th-most RB points per game, and Williams has been the more impressive Denver back over the past couple weeks, so Williams is at least in play. He could be a very strong option if Denver is able to play from ahead, but it’s worth noting that since 2010 interim head coaches who take over in-season are 13-9 in their first game at the helm. That may not sound like a great winning percentage, but keep in mind that most of those teams were far below .500 for the season. There is a noticeable boost in that first game. Treat Javonte as an RB3 who has a reasonable floor in any case, and RB2 upside this week if the game script is in Denver’s favor.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The expected return of Tua Tagovailoa should be a positive development for Waddle this week. Waddle’s season-high receiving mark of 61 yards was set in his only full game with Tua at QB, and that was the only game where he found the end zone as well. With Brissett under center, Waddle’s aDOT was around 4 yards, limiting the damage he could do without big volume. That mark was at 9.8 yards in week 1. It’s a small sample, but Tua showed a willingness to throw down the field that week that we just haven’t seen from Brissett. The matchup is a good one this week. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and DeVante Parker may be sidelined again. That could add up to a lot of volume for Waddle. If Tua doesn’t return this week, treat the rookie as a dicey PPR flex option. If he does, I really like Waddle’s chances to top 60 yards for the second time this year and finish as a WR3 or better.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Toney broke out in a big way in week 5, piling up 10 catches and 189 yards on 13 targets with most of New York’s other pass catchers sidelined. It was the kind of performance where you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Toney, long mocked as a terrible 1^st-round pick by GM Dave Gettleman & the Giants, showed that he’s too good to be sent back to the bench. It remains to be seen how the Giants will divvy up the WR opportunities as the rest of the WRs return, but Toney is going to be involved. This week, the Giants may get Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton back, so I wouldn’t look for Toney to be targeted 13 times again. He also may have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey a bunch in this one, and his starting QB is likely to be Mike Glennon. With the bye weeks hitting, Toney could be considered for a WR3 spot in lineups despite those things working against him, but you should come away happy if he gives you a repeat of what he did two weeks ago (6 catches for 78 yards).

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 6: @Cle.): The Cardinals flashed some creativity with Moore last week, getting him 3 rushing attempts to go along with his 6 targets, and Rondale posted his best game since week 2. He still hasn’t played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in any game though, and that additional usage last week could’ve been to help lighten the load on banged up running back Chase Edmonds. Moore may see his snaps increase if the Cards opt to play more 4-WR sets with TE Maxx Williams now out for the year, and speed has burned the Browns secondary this season. Two of the top-3 WR performances against them this year were by Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks, and Moore fits a similar size/speed mold. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week in Cleveland.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Mia.): Lawrence has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks after piling up turnovers in his first 3 starts, but he’s not seeing enough volume to be trusted as an auto-start in 2-QB leagues. He threw the ball 51 times in the opener as Jacksonville chased points against the Texans, but he’s attempted fewer than 35 passes in every game since and averaged just 204 passing yards per game in those contests. He’s padded his fantasy production with rushing scores in each of the past two weeks, but those are hard to rely on. Miami isn’t the type of team that I’d expect to blow the Jaguars out, so I’d expect Lawrence’s volume to be modest again. The Dolphins haven’t been a good defense against QBs, allowing the 6^th-most points per game to the position, but only Tom Brady (QB3) and Derek Carr (QB11) have finished higher than the QB20 against Miami in any individual game. I’d treat Lawrence as a low-end QB2 for fantasy this week.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Through his first 3 NFL starts, Justin Fields has averaged just 19 passing attempts and 144 passing yards per game. He’s thrown just 1 total touchdown and run for 25 total yards. Those aren’t the kind of numbers you can trust in a fantasy lineup, even though there are things working in his favor this week. The Bears are a 4.5-point underdog, so it’s likely that Fields will have to throw more than we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks, and the Packers are still without top cover man Jaire Alexander. They allowed 20 fantasy points to Joe Burrow last week in their first game without Alexander. It wouldn’t shock me if Fields posts his best fantasy day of the year, but if he’s not going to use his legs and give you a rushing floor, you can’t count on getting enough points from his arm to warrant starting him.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Christian McCaffrey’s absence seems almost certain to end this week, which means Hubbard goes back to handcuff status. There’s a chance the Panthers don’t give CMC a full workload the first game back out there, but I wouldn’t want to start Chuba in a part time role, even against a suspect Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. They’re a good matchup for running backs, but not a great one. If CMC is held out another week, treat Hubbard like a borderline RB2/RB3.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): I only mention Felton at all because Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb aren’t practicing as of Thursday. If by some chance both players sit, I’d expect D’Ernest Johnson to handle the bulk of the backfield work, with Felton mixing in on passing downs. The Cardinals have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and fewer than 5 receptions per game to the position. I’d have a hard time convincing myself to get Felton into lineups anywhere unless I were desperate, even if both starters are out.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Stevenson went from being a healthy scratch 3 weeks in a row to handling 11 carries in week 5. He didn’t do much with them, logging just 23 yards. One positive to take away for Stevenson is that he, unlike his teammate Damien Harris, did not fumble the ball away at the 1-yard line last week. It was the second fumble of the year at a critical moment by Harris, and there is no way Belichick allows him to continue to get those kinds of carries if that continues to happen. Harris was dealing with chest & rib injuries in that game that may have contributed to Rhamondre’s playing time, but he seems unlikely to miss week 6 despite not practicing Wednesday. It was reported by Ian Rapoport after the game that Harris “checked out ok.” If Harris is active, Stevenson is a bad option against a Dallas defense that has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Devontae Booker is the only running back all year to get into the end zone against them. If Harris is inactive, I would view Rhamondre as more of a desperation flex play in non-PPR leagues. The Patriots should be chasing points against an explosive Dallas offense, so this shapes up to be a Brandon Bolden week.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): After logging 11 carries in week 4, Rountree didn’t play a single offensive snap in week 5. There were no reports of any injury or disciplinary reasons he was sidelined, so it appears that he’s simply lost the backup job to Joshua Kelley for the time being. There’s no reason to hold him as a handcuff in deeper leagues right now.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Evans did see a season-high number of snaps in week 5 with Joe Mixon on a snap count due to injury, but that amounted to just 7 snaps for the rookie. You can’t start him in any weeks where Mixon is active, no matter how deep the league.

RB Gary Brightwell, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): I mention Brightwell because Saquon Barkley is expected to be sidelined for at least 1 week, possibly longer. That doesn’t mean Brightwell is worth stashing. He’s arguably still 3^rd on the backfield depth chart behind Devontae Booker and Elijhaa Penny. Leave him on the waiver wire.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): I’ve mentioned Bateman as a stash each of the last two weeks, so hopefully you’ve already gone ahead and stashed him. If he’s still available in your league, he’s still worth picking up, but this is not a great week to expect a strong debut. The Chargers have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA. Bateman still costs the minimum on DraftKings, so if you want to live dangerously in a limited slate DFS tournament, feel free to roll the dice. It’s not something I would do though. I expect he’ll be eased back and faces a tough defense in his first game back.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Even if he’s active this week, Nico’s unlikely to be useful for fantasy purposes. I’d expect Houston to ease him back in after he missed the last 3 weeks with injury, and he only played 55% of the offensive snaps and was targeted just 3 times in the 1 full game he did play. Chris Moore played well enough last week that he deserves to continue seeing snaps, and those snaps aren’t coming from Brandin Cooks. The Colts are a plus matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Collins shouldn’t be put into lineups against them this week.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Marshall has reached 30 receiving yards just once all season despite playing more than half the offensive snaps each week. Minnesota is ranked an impressive 6^th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t the week to expect Marshall to get on track.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): Palmer saw a season-high 3 targets in week 5, but he’s yet to play more than 25% of the offensive snaps in a game. He’s not on the fantasy radar right now.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Freiermuth and Eric Ebron continue to split the tight work in the Steelers’ offense, minimizing the chance for either player to be useful for fantasy right now. Big Ben is targeting the position on less than 15% of his attempts, and the Freiermuth/Ebron duo has combined for just 4 red zone targets in 5 games. The Seahawks are hardly a formidable defensive matchup, but Freiermuth isn’t seeing consistent enough usage to be trusted as a TE streamer right now. He’s been targeted 3 times in the last 2 weeks.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Tremble has found the end zone in 2 of the last 3 weeks, but he’s yet to play 40% of the offensive snaps in any game this season and has seen more than 1 target in a game just once. The Vikings have allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game and allowed zero touchdowns to the position. Steer clear of Tremble.

Rookies on bye in week 6: QB Trey Lance, SF, QB Zach Wilson, NYJ, RB Elijah Mitchell, SF, RB Trey Sermon, SF, RB Michael Carter, NYJ, WR Elijah Moore, NYJ, TE Kyle Pitts, ATL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): You’re probably playing with fire if you play Mills in fantasy lineups the week after he put up what may end up being his best performance of the season, but he’s in a sneaky spot to have another strong game in week 6. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed multiple TD passes to every quarterback they’ve faced so far. No team has allowed a higher passer rating than the Colts, and they may be without standout corner Xavier Rhodes in this game as he’s in the concussion protocol. The Texans may have Nico Collins back as well, giving Mills another weapon to work with. It’ll take some cojones to start Mills; he’s a risky play, but one that could pay off. I wouldn’t start him in 1-QB leagues, but he’s an upside QB2 option this week. I’d be ringing the bell for him a lot harder if there were more prominent QBs on bye this week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): It’s been hard to rely on anything when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield usage so far this season, but this is a nice spot for Gainwell. The Bucs have stifled opposing rushers, allowing fewer than 40 yards on the ground per game, but have allowed the most RB receptions per game and 4^th most RB receiving yards in the league. Gainwell has shared the receiving work with Miles Sanders, but if Philly falls in a hole expect to see a lot of Gainwell. He’s played 93% of the 2-minute offense snaps and has been targeted on more than a quarter of his routes run. If he’s on the field as much as I expect, 5+ receptions seem likely.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): St. Brown has emerged over the last two weeks as the most-targeted option in the Lions’ WR room, and the injury to Quintez Cephus last week should strengthen his hold on that role going forward. This week he faces off with the Bengals, who allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. He spends the vast majority of his time in the slot, where he’ll face off with Bengals’ slot corner Mike Hilton. Hilton has allowed a 76% completion percentage and 103.5 passer rating on throws into his coverage. No wide receiver is truly trustworthy in this offense, but St. Brown is in play in PPR leagues as a WR3/Flex option in this one.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. KC): If there was ever a time for Brown to get on track, this is it. His early season usage before getting hurt in week 4 left a lot to be desired, but this offense is missing Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Cam Sims this week, and Brown seems to be on track to return to the lineup. Brown’s targets have been of the downfield variety (14.2-yard aDOT for the season), but those downfield throws haven’t connected. This week he faces off with a Kansas City defense that has allowed a league-high eight 40-yard completions and is coming off a week where they coughed up several deep balls to the Bills. Washington is a touchdown underdog, so passing volume should be plentiful. Brown’s deep ball skills in this matchup make him a quality dart throw in DFS tournaments at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s probably not trustworthy enough to use in season-long leagues unless you’re desperate.

TE Kylen Granson, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Granson isn’t someone you should be running out to add in season-long leagues. He played just 8 snaps on Monday Night Football against the Ravens in week 6 after seeing 30 snaps the week before. The notable thing here is that he out-targeted Jack Doyle in both games despite playing many fewer snaps this past week. The Colts looked to get the ball into Granson’s hands when he was on the field, and Frank Reich isn’t afraid to use a lot of 2-tight end sets. Houston allows more tight end points per game than any other team in the league and has allowed scores to backups Tommy Tremble & Chris Manhertz, and 40+ receiving yards to James O’Shaughnessy & Harrison Bryant. Granson costs just $800 for the showdown slate on DraftKings, and I have a hunch he surprises in this one.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.