Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

1,250 Receiving Yards

The leader in receiving yards this season currently sits at 1,250 yards and it’s not even a wide receiver. Travis Kelce is your league leader in receiving yards, and he’s currently sitting 70 yards above the next closest player, DK Metcalf, who leads all wide receivers with 1,180 yards. Kelce’s dominance is incredible at the TE position, where he truly has no equal this season. He has finished the week as the top TE 5 times this year. He has nearly 60 more points than the second highest scoring TE this year, Darren Waller, and could probably not play another snap this year and still easily finish as the TE1 for 2020. You can combine the TE6 and TE7’s points on the year and still not reach Kelce’s 222.16 total points. Kelce is the 6^th highest scoring non-QB on the season, ahead of all but 3 RBs and 2 WRs – all of whom have at least 5 more touchdowns than he does. Kelce has 6 games this year where he’s scored 20+ points, and another 5 of them where he has at least double digit points. This is shaping up to be a top 3 all-time fantasy season for a TE, with 3 full games left to play, he’s got a real shot at beating the 3^rd best season, his own 2018 season where he scored 245.1 points, and he’s on pace to pass Jimmy Graham’s 2^nd place season in 2013 where he scored 260.5. Rob Gronkowski’s top spot could fall if Kelce has a few good games, he has the all-time record of 285.9 points from the 2011 season.

6.3% Difference in Points

The top tier of quarterbacks is as crowded as it’s ever been. There are 5 quarterbacks at the top of the heap with only a 6.3% difference between the QB1, Kyler Murray (336.44) and QB5, Josh Allen (315.34). The other QBs filling out tier 1 are Patrick Mahomes (334.32), Russell Wilson (321.7) and Aaron Rodgers (317.3). This top play has made the season very enjoyable to watch and also means that the MVP race is wide open. Early in the season, it was Wilson’s to lose. Then Kyler took over, but has had a poor 4 game stretch recently where his team went only 1-3. Recently, the talk has been all about Mahomes, but he just threw 3 picks yesterday, leading us to bring Aaron Rodgers into the conversation. Both of those two, by the way, have won the award before. So, what will the rest of the season bring us? Will Josh Allen be able to lead his team to 3 more victories to close the season and enter the conversation? All I know is that it’s very likely to be one of these top QBs, because this is real life, not fantasy football, where a non-QB like Dalvin Cook (averaging 23 points per game) or Derrick Henry (who has just one game finishing in the 20’s and 3 games with 35+ points) is the real MVP.

1,035 Rushing Yards

While we’re talking about end of season awards, let me bring up a name I have not heard mentioned yet. James Robinson for offensive rookie of the year. This is probably a very hard award to win when you are on a 1-win team, but let’s look at the rest of the field. Traditionally a QB would win, but Joe Burrow was injured too soon and Tua Tagovailoa started too late in the year. Justin Herbert was leading the way for a while, but he is only 3-9 this season and has put together his last 3 games with only 3 TDs, 5 INTs and 7 sacks, including that ugly shutout to the Patriots in week 13. Chase Claypool has slowed his torrid TD pace after scoring 8 times between weeks 2 and 11. Jonathan Taylor is getting going too late, Antonio Gibson’s injury eliminated him before he could even reach 1,000 yards from scrimmage and Justin Jefferson is on a sub .500 team and is arguably not even the best WR on his own team. This leaves us with James Robinson, who is not the one left over, but truly the one leading the pack, he’s just been hiding away in Jacksonville. Robinson reached the 1,000 rush yards mark in only 13 games, the fastest that an undrafted free agent rookie has ever gotten there. He’s only the 4^th UDFA rookie to rush for 1,000 yards. He also has 46 receptions for 326 yards and has 9 total touchdowns. He is 4^th in the league in yards from scrimmage and a serious candidate to be the first ever UDFA to win offensive rookie of the year honors.

7 Rookie QBs with Starts in 2020

Continuing the rookie discussion, this season is the fifth in a row where at least 6 rookie QBs have found themselves starting a game. Jalen Hurts’ start, and win, in Philly over the Saints marks him as the 7^th rookie this year to start a game. Hurts’ win against New Orleans was very impressive for a few reasons, mainly because the lowly Eagles took down the top seed in the NFC, but also because both Hurts and Miles Sanders rushed for over 100 yards, something that nobody has done all season against the Saints (or even in their last 50 games). Overall, the 2020 QB class has been a mixed bag at best. With Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa only playing about half a season each, Jalen Hurts getting a start very late in the year and Justin Herbert standing out among the group, only to go 3-9, it’s no wonder we’ve forgotten some of the other rookie QBs. Want to guess? I’ll give you a moment…

0 Offensive Points from the 1^st Place Football Team

What some might describe as “truly 2020” I might just chalk up as being purely NFL Least this season. The Washington “Not Sure If We’re A” Football Team scored exactly zero points with their offense on the field on Sunday while assuming sole possession of first place in their division. Washington managed to kick 3 field goals and scored two defensive touchdowns in their 25-15 victory over the reigning NFC champs, the San Francisco 49ers. The Football Team (must I capitalize them both?) managed a pitiful 108 yards passing between Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins combined, and only 98 rushing yards, thanks in part to Haskins’ 4 carries for -12 yards which brought them back below the century mark. In a game that set NFL football back 10 years, the fantasy scoring for Washington was led first by their D/ST, then by their kicker, Nick Mullens. At least the 49ers had a QB and WR in double digits to avoid further embarrassment in this column.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, your team is still alive and kicking for the fantasy semifinals. We’re starting to see some impressive rookies like Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers have breakout games and keep fantasy seasons alive. Hopefully, your teams have been benefitting from those performances. The lineup choices this week are crucial, so make sure you follow the health updates throughout the week. There are a lot of players at the same positions listed under ‘Rookies to Start’ and ‘Borderline Rookies’ this week, so keep in mind the order they’re listed in and make the best choice based on who else is on your team. A ‘Rookie to Start’ may not be an automatic start for you. Let’s dive into week 15…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 15: @LV): Herbert had a someone muted performance last week with 243 passing yards and 2 scores, but it was a vast improvement over what he did against New England the week before. He gets to square off with the Raiders this week and should have a great chance to at least match what he did last week against a Vegas defense that allows the 10^th-most QB points per game. The Raiders have given up exactly two passing scores in each of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 6, and Herbert threw for 326 yards and a pair of scores in the first meeting. The Raiders haven’t been giving up big blowup games to QBs since they are also abysmal against the run, so Herbert should be in line for a low-end QB1 performance. I wouldn’t be starting him over any of the top-tier options at the position (Mahomes, Rodgers, Russ, Josh Allen, Lamar, Kyler), but if you don’t have any of those top guys Herbert should be a solid QB play this week.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): The Colts are finally starting to unleash Taylor the way they should, and he is making defenses pay. He’s posted back-to-back top-3 weeks, and one of them came against this week’s opponent, the Texans. In that game, the Colts didn’t really start to feed Taylor the ball until the 4^th quarter. I expect it to start earlier this week after what he showed against the Raiders. The Texans are one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 29^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allowing the 2^nd-most running back fantasy points per game. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-most rushing yards, the 2^nd-highest yards per rush average, and are tied for the 4^th-most rushing touchdowns allowed. If Taylor gets fed the ball as he should, there’s no reason he can’t have a 3^rd straight high RB1 performance.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Watching what Akers has done in the last few weeks has to have people questioning why he was playing behind Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown for so long. After running for 156 yards and 2 TDs combined in weeks 12 & 13, Akers put on a clinic last week against New England. He didn’t find the end zone but totaled nearly 200 yards from scrimmage. We’ve seen what kind of fantasy upside a running back in a Sean McVay offense can have if they commit to him as the lead back thanks to Todd Gurley. Gurley was the number 1 running back in fantasy in 2017 & 2018. I’m not saying I think Akers will be at that level, but he can be a top-10 running back going forward if he’s the true lead guy. This week’s matchup looks great on paper against the 0-13 Jets. The Rams are favored by a ridiculous 17 points and should be able to lean on the ground game a lot, but the Jets defense is much more vulnerable to the aerial attack. New York ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, but 8^th in that stat against the run. They give up plenty of points to opposing backs (12^th-most in the league), but they don’t give up the big blow-up games very often. Only 3 running backs have reached 15 fantasy points against the Jets this year, and only Melvin Gordon scored more than 1 touchdown against them. Because of this, I wouldn’t treat Akers as a chalk play in DFS formats, but volume should get him into the top 10-12 running backs for the week in what is still a plus matchup.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Every week I look at Robinson’s matchup and see something that doesn’t look great for him on paper, and every week he comes through with a solid fantasy day. Last week he actually had a down game, and still finished with 12 fantasy points. This week is no different. Baltimore is favored by two touchdowns and ranks 9^th in run defense DVOA, so the game script could get away from the Jaguars again, but you have to count on Robinson to keep doing what he’s done all year. The Ravens have given up at least 60 rushing yards and 10 fantasy points to the opposing RB1 in each of their last 5 games, and I see no reason why Robinson won’t get to those marks as well. The return of Gardner Minshew at QB could provide a spark for the Jaguars offense, and he actually targets running backs in the passing game at a slightly higher clip than Mike Glennon this year (20.5% to 18%) albeit in a small sample size. Robinson should be a safe RB play once again this week despite the tough matchup.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 15: @Ten.): Swift returned from his concussion/illness last weekend and went right back to his usual role as lead back, playing 53% of the snaps and scoring a short rushing TD. He seems to be recovered, and that’s good for your fantasy lineups this week. He gets to face a Tennessee defense that has allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game. Game script could lean pass-heavy with Tennessee favored by double-digits, but the Titans have allowed the 10^th-most RB receiving yards, the 2^nd-most RB receiving TDs, and Swift may have Chase Daniel at QB. In the 6 games Daniel has started or played the majority of, he’s thrown 32.1% of his passes to running backs. Stafford for the season is at about a 20% target share for backs, and that’s only if you count gadget player and return man Jamal Agnew as a running back. Swift is the only back on this team likely to put up substantial receiving production, so he should still be a solid RB2 in a game that looks like it could get out of hand in Tennessee’s favor.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): If I had any faith that Dobbins would see a handful of targets this week he’d be even higher on this list. Dobbins seems to have taken a firm grip on the lead back job in this committee as Mark Ingram has been mostly phased out in recent weeks. Dobbins has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in 2 of the last 3 games he’s played. He’s also had 10+ carries in 5 of his last 6 games and found the end zone in each of his last 3. The Jaguars have allowed each of the last 3 lead backs they faced to reach 120+ rushing yards and 20+ fantasy points. Granted, those were 3 elite backs – Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook & Derrick Henry, but there have been just 2 games all year where the opposing lead back against Jacksonville failed to reach 11+ fantasy points. One of those games was against the Chargers without Austin Ekeler. If Dobbins is treated as the lead back early on in this one, I expect him to have a huge rushing day, and to possibly post a top-10 fantasy day. His lack of receiving usage is why I rank him below the other backs above this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 15: @Dal.): Aiyuk has been on a tear in recent weeks, with 100 receiving yards or a TD in 6 straight games, and this week he gets to face off with a Dallas defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game. Deebo Samuel is likely done for the season after injuring his hamstring on his first touch of the game last week, and in the 4 games he’s played without Samuel (counting last week) Aiyuk has totaled 48 targets and put up fantasy point totals of 18.6, 19.1, 16.2, and 16.9. Three of those four games came against defenses currently in the top-12 at limiting WR fantasy points. Again, Dallas is in the bottom five. George Kittle could return this week, and that would put a bit of a dent into Aiyuk’s ceiling, but it’s looking more likely that he returns next week. The rookie should be in line for 10+ targets and a borderline WR1 day.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 15: vs. Chi.): Jefferson gets a tough on-paper matchup this week after being limited to just 4-39 on 8 targets by the Bucs a week ago. Chicago allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but that’s not a death knell for Jefferson this week. In their last 5 games, the Bears have allowed 3 different receivers to reach 100 yards against them. The two teams that didn’t get a receiver to 100 against them in that span were Green Bay, who routed the Bears in the first half and didn’t need to throw, and the Texans who were missing all of their top-3 wide receivers last week. Jefferson put up 8 catches for 135 yards on 10 targets in his first meeting with the Bears and should be good for another solid day in this one. He’s still seen 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and that volume should be there again.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 15: @Ari.): Hurts made quite the impression in his first career start, knocking off a solid New Orleans team and making the offense look competent in a way Carson Wentz hasn’t in weeks. He didn’t put up gaudy passing numbers, with just 167 yards and a touchdown, but his 106-yard rushing day made him the QB10 for the week. That rushing upside is a huge advantage for Hurts in fantasy, and it should be there again this week. The Cardinals are a respectable QB defense, allowing the 13^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve also allowed the 6^th-most QB rushing yards on the year. They’re unlikely to let Hurts run for another 100 yards, but if he gets into the 60-70 range he has a great chance to be a high-end QB2 this week, even if the passing numbers are muted again.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 15: @NO): Edwards-Helaire didn’t exactly have a banner day in week 14, finishing as the RB20, but there were plenty of positive signs for the rookie. He was on the field for 74% of the offensive snaps and logged 21 touches, the highest total he’s seen since the team added Le’Veon Bell. This week’s opponent, the Saints, allows the fewest running back points per game, but 4 of the 5 running backs they’ve allowed to run for 60+ yards have been guys that win with speed and agility rather than power -  David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Ronald Jones, and Aaron Jones. Josh Jacobs is the only power back to hit that mark. If the volume continues for CEH, I like his chances of posting another top-20 day even in a tougher matchup.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Gibson was held out of practice on Thursday dealing with turf toe, so it seems unlikely we see him this week. If he does play, he faces a Seattle defense that ranks 11^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed only Wayne Gallman to run for 40+ yards against them since week 7. Gallman did go for over 100, so it’s not impossible for Gibson to have a good day if he suits up. Gibson’s true upside comes from getting into the end zone. He’s scored at least 1 touchdown in 8 of the 11 full games he’s played in, and Seattle has given up 11 RB rushing scores on the year. Keep an eye on the injury report here, but I see Gibson as more of a low-end RB2 or flex play if he plays and is close to 100%.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Ahmed has been practicing in a limited capacity this week and looks like he may be on track to return to the lineup. The Patriots have been struggling to defend the run this year. They rank 28^th in run defense DVOA and let Cam Akers run for over 170 yards a week ago. They don’t give up a ton of receiving production, but Ahmed could be in line for a nice day running the ball if he’s able to play. Salvon had 33 combined carries in the last two games he was healthy for with Myles Gaskin sidelined. He should see 15+ touches again if he plays and Gaskin doesn’t get cleared from the COVID list ahead of this game. That kind of volume would put the rookie on the flex/RB2 radar against this defense.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 15: @Den.): Moss was benched in week 13 after an early fumble against the 49ers, but the Bills didn’t carry over that punishment to week 14. Moss was right back to his usual role against the Steelers, playing about 60% of the offensive snaps. Against Pittsburgh, that role didn’t translate to many fantasy points, but the matchup this week is a bit more favorable. The Broncos rank 25^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-most running back points per game. They are also tied for 4^th in most rushing TDs allowed at 17. Moss’s upside comes from his role as the goal line back. Obviously, in this offense, Josh Allen is just as likely if not more likely than any of the running backs to score a short TD, but this week Moss has as good a chance as any to get in the end zone. Buffalo’s offense has been much more pass-happy this year than in years past, and with Denver missing their top 3 CBs again this week that should continue. The run volume might only be there if they get out in front early. I see Moss as mostly a flex option where you’re hoping for 50+ yards and a TD.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Claypool has confusingly seen his snaps limited in recent weeks, giving way to James Washington at times and playing just 69 out of 128 snaps in the last 2 games (54%). Given that those games were the first two losses of the season for Pittsburgh, it would behoove them to get Claypool more involved, and this should be a good week to do that. The Bengals rank just 29^th in pass-defense DVOA, and the Steelers have an implied total of 27 points. Claypool’s likely defensive matchup would be 5’10” Darius Phillips. Claypool stands 6’4”, and I like the chances that Big Ben exploits that advantage in the red zone at some point and gets the ball to Claypool in the end zone. This should be a get-right spot for the entire offense that has struggled in recent weeks. Claypool is an upside WR3 for me this week.

WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Bowden has emerged at just the right time for a Dolphins team that has had limited weapons in recent weeks due to injuries. The team was already down to their 4^th-string running back last week and lost DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to injury during the game. Bowden stepped in and filled the void admirably with 7-82 on 9 targets. Gesicki returned to practice Thursday, and Parker has been practicing in a limited capacity as well. It remains to be seen who will be active on Sunday, but Bowden is healthy and should be lining up in the slot again. New England allows the 3^rd-most yards per target on throws to the slot receiver, and I like the chances that Bowden sees another high-volume day. He should be in line for a solid WR3 kind of day in PPR formats.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 15: vs. SF): Lamb has been a floor option most weeks with Andy Dalton at QB, but this week is one where he could see a bump in production. Prior to last week, Lamb was averaging 7 targets per game since Dak went down, and I wouldn’t read much into the two targets he saw last week. The Cowboys were in the rare position of having a commanding lead for much of the day and Dalton was limited to just 23 attempts (he’s averaged 42 attempts in the 4 other full games he’s played). The 49ers aren’t going to be a pushover like Cincy was a week ago, so Dallas should be forced to throw a lot more. Lamb gets the most favorable matchup of the Dallas receivers, avoiding Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett in the slot, where he lines up for 85% of his snaps. Instead, he’ll face off mostly with Dontae Johnson, who has allowed a 104 passer rating on throws into his coverage, albeit in limited opportunities. If Dallas wants to stay competitive in this one, they’ll look Lamb’s way often. I like the odds that Lamb tops 60 receiving yards for just the 2^nd time since week 6.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Jeudy has been a bit of a disappointment in recent weeks on the stat sheet, but he’s still playing most of the snaps and should get a boost if Tre’Davious White follows around Tim Patrick this week. I expect Denver to have to throw quite a bit more than they have in recent weeks, and in the last 3 games where Drew Lock attempted 30+ passes, Jeudy averaged 10 targets and 77 yards per game. He should be in line for his best game since before the Kendall Hinton bowl this week even though Buffalo allows the 13^th-fewest WR points per game. He’s an upside WR4 this week.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Shenault should be a floor PPR option even in a tough matchup this week. The Ravens secondary is stingy, ranking 11^th in pass DVOA, and allowing the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, but Shenault was targeted 11 times last week and should benefit from the return of Gardner Minshew at QB. Rookie teammate Collin Johnson seems to have fully gone back to the bench, and it looks like Shenault and DJ Chark will see the biggest boost from Minshew’s return. I’d expect Viska to see 8+ targets in a game where Jacksonville should be playing from behind as usual.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Pittman squares off with the Texans for the 2^nd time in 3 weeks, and as we learned in that first meeting it’s TY Hilton who has the best chance to cash in on this matchup. The Texans have been cooked by opposing WR1s in all 4 games without Bradley Roby, allowing 110+ receiving yards and a TD to each WR1 they’ve faced in those games. I tricked myself into believing that would be Pittman in the game two weeks ago, only to watch Hilton put up 8-110-1 on 11 targets while the rookie totaled 5-46 on 5 targets. This is still a bad pass defense, so there is upside for more for Pittman, but I’d expect similar results to the last time. The other WR2s to face Houston with Roby out are Darnell Mooney (2-22-1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (0-0), and Chris Conley (7-52).

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 15: vs. Pit.): In 3 full games without Joe Burrow. Higgins has finished with exactly 5 catches and a yardage total between 44 and 56 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone in any of those games. This week he faces a Steelers’ defense that ranks 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA and is in the top half of the league at limiting WR points. Higgins did torch this defense for 7-115-1 in his first meeting with them in week 10, but that was with Burrow under center. Counting on any more production from Higgins than what we’ve seen in the last few weeks is asking for trouble.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 15: @Min.): Kmet has now seen 7 targets in back to back games to go along with a snap share above 80% in that time, but his yardage totals have left something to be desired (39 per game). This week he faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed the 11^th-most yards to the position, but just 5 touchdowns to tight ends in 12 games. Kmet’s usage makes him an intriguing streaming TE1 if you’re searching for someone at the position this week. I’d expect him to see a healthy target number again this week and would be a helpful piece of your lineup if he finds the end zone.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Tua had his best fantasy game of the year last week in a loss to Kansas City, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat against a defense that has held 4 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to zero total touchdowns and fewer than 10 fantasy points. The place to beat the Patriots has been on the ground. New England has allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game on the year, and you can’t afford a bad game from a quarterback in the playoffs. Tua is no more than a low-end QB2 this week, even if he is missing Gaskin and Ahmed and has to have a pass-heavy game plan again. His weapons are banged up, and the Patriots under Belichick have always made life miserable on rookie QBs against them. Since 2000, 29 rookie QBs have attempted at least 15 passes against the Patriots in a game. 14 of them threw multiple interceptions, and just 7 threw multiple TD passes. Only 5 threw for 240+ yards. We all saw what this defense did to Justin Herbert. This is not a great spot for Tua.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): James Conner looks like he may not be active this week after being held out of practice Thursday. McFarland played just 25 total snaps in the last two games Conner was inactive for, playing behind both Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels. This game could be a blowout win for the Steelers, but I wouldn’t count on McFarland to get an extended run even if Conner sits and they win in a blowout. The Steelers have played down to their competition on several occasions this year, so there is no guarantee this is a blowout. You can’t rely on McFarland in season-long leagues. He’s no more than a dart throw in a DFS single-game showdown slate.

RB KeShawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 15: @Atl.): RoJo was added to the COVID list this week, so it seems likely he’ll miss this game, but that’s not a reason to trust Vaughn to play a lot. Leonard Fournette was inactive last week, and Vaughn still just saw 4 snaps and 1 rushing attempt while Shady McCoy played 16 snaps. I’d expect Fournette to be the guy to step into Jones’ early-down role this week, and McCoy to continue as the 3^rd-down back. Atlanta allows the 6^th-fewest RB points per game, so a limited role against them won’t lead to fantasy-worthy production.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 15: @LV): Kelley was a healthy scratch last week with Justin Jackson back from IR. There is no reason for him to be on your roster at this point. Even if Austin Ekeler sits tonight, it’ll be Jackson and Kalen Ballage doing most of the backfield work.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 15: @LAR): Even though Mims is likely to avoid the coverage of Jalen Ramsey, this isn’t a great spot to fire him up in fantasy lineups. The Rams allow the fewest WR points per game, and only Deebo Samuel and Tyler Lockett have topped 60 yards against them in the last 6 games. Mims is a desperation WR4 at best this week. He’d need to get into the end zone to return much value.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 15: @Ari.): With Jalen Hurts at QB the passing volume is going to be limited. Reagor has just 5 targets in the last two weeks (4 of those in Hurts’ 1^st start), and while Arizona isn’t a matchup to run away from (they allow the 14^th-most WR points), it also isn’t one to roll the dice on Reagor having a surprise big day. Obviously negative game script could inflate the passing volume with Arizona favored by 6.5, but there are safer options with your season on the line this week than Reagor.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 15: @NYG): Peoples-Jones has now played more than 50% of the offensive snaps 3 times this season, and in those games he’s put up 56, 92, and 74 yards, but he hasn’t had more than 5 targets or 3 catches in any of those games. The Giants’ defense hasn’t been very vulnerable to the big plays though. They’ve allowed the 4^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards for the season, and it seems likely that KhaDarel Hodge will return to the field this week and push DPJ back to a more limited role.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 15: @Ten.): Cephus’s two target trend continued last week. He’s now exactly 2 targets in 5 of his last 6 games, and for the year has 14 targets in two games against the Bears, and 13 in the rest of his games combined. Chase Daniel at QB would take away any limited upside that Cephus has this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 15: @NYG): Bryant may get one more week as the lead tight end if Hooper sits again, but it sounds as though Hooper is on track to play. The Giants allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and Bryant’s only big game of the year came against Cincinnati, who allows the 3^rd-most points to the position. I think you’re best looking for a higher upside option than Bryant even if Hooper sits.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hamler had a huge game against the Panthers last weekend on just 3 targets, turning them into 86 yards and two touchdowns, and while I don’t expect a repeat of that performance this week he does have the most favorable matchup of the Bronco WRs against Taron Johnson in the slot. The Broncos are going to have to throw the ball a lot in this game to keep pace with a Buffalo offense that should shred their depleted secondary. The last 3 times that Drew Lock attempted 30+ passes, Hamler totaled 26 targets and 160 receiving yards on 14 receptions. He’s got some upside for deep leagues as a flex option.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 15: @Den.): John Brown was designated to return from IR this week, but if he sits another week Davis has a good opportunity for another productive day. Davis has 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 5 of the 6 games that John Brown has either missed or played less than half of the snaps due to injury, and the Broncos are without their top 3 cornerbacks and have another two that got banged up last week. He should have a great opportunity at another 50+ yard day if Brown sits again. Keep an eye on the injury report here.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): The Ravens added receivers Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, and James Proche to their COVID list this week, and that leaves them with just Duvernay, Willie Snead, and Dez Bryant healthy on the roster for this week. They’re likely to add Chris Moore from the practice squad and use more 2-tight end and 2-running back sets to help cover up how shorthanded they are at receiver. Duvernay should still see an increased role this week from what we’re used to. He brings a speed element that Bryant and Snead don’t, and is the most likely candidate to replace what Brown does in this offense. The Jaguars allow the 8^th-most WR points per game and have allowed the 8^th-most completions of 20+ yards for the season. This could be a great spot for Baltimore to get their deep passing game connecting again, and Duvernay would be the likeliest beneficiary. He’s a great dart throw in DFS tournaments this week.

WR Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 15: vs. LAC): Henry Ruggs is going to be inactive this week on the COVID list, and that will get Edwards back into a starting role for the first time in weeks. I expect the Chargers standout corner Casey Heyward, Jr. to matchup mostly with Nelson Agholor, which leaves Edwards with Michael Davis. It’s not a high upside spot with the Chargers allowing the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but Edwards costs just $400 for the TNF showdown slate on DraftKings. He should see at least a handful of targets as he has the easiest individual matchup of the Vegas receivers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates tonight and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 2 Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

First of all, how is it not the playoffs yet? This extended season suddenly feels very weird. That being said, let's have a look at players who are trending up or down over the last 3 weeks (or longer). We like to look at trends to try and identify if a player is on the right or wrong track, OR if they’re close to turning things around.

Matthew Stafford (QB-LAR) - Week 10 @ SF, 11.82; Week 12 @ GB, 22.98; Week 13 vs JAC, 24.00: Stafford had a rough stretch this year in weeks 9 and 10 where he threw only 1 TD and 2 INTs each game and put up his two lowest fantasy point totals of the season. The Rams then had a bye week and it seems like Stafford worked a few things out, because he’s thrown 3 touchdowns in each of the two games he’s had since the bye. While it does feel like he’s turned a corner, I would be very cautious with starting him against the Cardinals, especially if you have to win this week to make the playoffs. If you’re already in, then hold on to Stafford, because his schedule for the playoffs is very nice, playing Seattle, Minnesota, and Baltimore, all in the top half of fantasy points against to opposing QBs.

Javonte Williams (RB-DEN) - Week 10 vs PHI, 5.9; Week 12 vs LAC, 18.6, Week 13 @ KC, 26.8: Williams has been one of the most talked about rookie RBs this season due to his seemingly untapped potential. Williams has also been one of the best RBs after contact this season, and finally the Broncos have let him loose. He has had his best two fantasy weeks since the Broncos bye in Week 11. With  Melvin Gordon is out, he’s also seeing a huge amount of touches - 29 last week! He had 178 yards from scrimmage, 6 receptions and scored a TD against the Chiefs, good for 26.8 points and the RB1 spot in Week 13. Coming up, the Broncos will probably get Gordon back this week, but the RB split should now be in favor of Williams. Three of his next 4 matchups are against teams giving up top 6 points to opposing RBs. Williams is on a true trend up and will probably be a high draft pick next year.

James Robinson (RB-JAC) - Week 11 vs SF, 10.8; Week 12 vs ATL, 11.0, Week 13 @ LAR, 2.0: While this isn’t a textbook example of the trend we’re looking for, it’s clear that Robinson’s production had been sliding downward after a really nice stretch earlier in the season. This last week he only had 9 touches in a game that, while a blowout, he should have had lots more work. It appears that Robinson could be in the doghouse. There were reports that during the game, Carlos Hyde needed a breather and Robinson was not put in for him. Robinson has a rough matchup this week against Tennessee, so sitting him wouldn't be a bad move. His next two games are great matchups, so firing him up if he gets more work in Week 14 is the right move. Then he faces the Patriots in the fantasy championship, which is never a fun matchup for anyone.

Russell Gage (WR-ATL) - Week 11 vs NE, 7.40, Week 12 @ JAC, 15.20, Week 13 vs TB, 16.50: The Falcons passing game finally seems to have a focal point, and it’s Russell Gage. Gage has 22 receptions in the last 3 games to go with 27 targets (he had 26 targets in the other 5 games he played in this year). Anyone getting 9 targets per week is going to be on everyone’s fantasy radar, and it helps that he’s either scored a TD or gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games. Gage should continue to get peppered with targets as opposing defenses are forced to focus on Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.

Chase Claypool (WR-PIT) - Week 11 @ LAC, 11.90, Week 12 @ CIN, 9.70, Week 13 vs BAL, 6.40: It’s possible that Claypool is banged up - the rumor is that he has a foot injury, though he practiced yesterday and hasn’t missed any games recently. Regardless, Claypool has not had a very good season, only going over 100 yards and scoring 1 TD all season (that was the same game. He only has 2 other games with double digit points. Claypool’s targets have gone from 9 to 8 to 3 over the last 3 weeks, and last week he played only 63% of offensive snaps, his lowest total since week 5 (and second lowest total for the season). Claypool has only 10 receptions and 3 rushes (for 3 yards) over the last 3 weeks, so he’s not getting the work that you want to see from a guy who was drafted as a WR3 (26th WR taken). Claypool has fantastic matchups for the next 2 weeks, and the 2 after that are still favorable, so it’s going to be tough to keep him on the bench, despite his poor performance recently.