Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

8-0

It’s good to be a team out west. Following Monday night’s victory by the Raiders, both the NFC and AFC West divisions are a perfect 8-0. They stand in stark contrast to the NFC North, which started 0-4. The Raiders certainly had the most exciting victory of the bunch, but honorable mentions go to Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes kept his perfect September streak alive while moving to 35 TDs and 0 INTs during September. Kudos also go to the Chargers, who sit in last place after a very tough victory over the Washington Football Team. The Seahawks share their last-place standing, after having a ho-hum victory over a non-conference team in Indianapolis. 

3 Rookie WR Touchdowns

The three wide receivers who were taken in the first round of the 2021 draft all had an immediate impact on their respective teams. Devonta Smith started off the scoring for the Eagles, finding the end zone on an 18-yard pass from Jalen Hurts halfway through the first quarter. It would up being all the scoring the Eagles would need against an anemic Falcons team. Not to be outdone, Ja’Marr Chase caught a 50 yard TD from his former (and current) teammate Joe Burrow as time was running down in the first half of their game against Minnesota. Chase caught 5 of 7 targets for 101 yards and a TD, so clearly, the “lines on the ball” thing was a bit overblown. We should all cut rookies some slack when they’re accidentally candid with a reporter. Based on the public’s reaction, we don’t have to worry about him being candid any time in the near future. In the afternoon slate of games, Jaylen Waddle got in on the fun, scoring from 3 yards out early in the second half. All of these rookies’ teams won on Sunday.

0 TDs

Week 1’s top scoring fantasy RB managed to score the most points of the week and didn’t even find the end zone. Of course, it’s a familiar name - Christian McCaffrey put up 23.2 fantasy points, a low total for the top scorer of the week. He had 187 yards from scrimmage, or 49% of his team’s total offense. Add 9 receptions to that, and he had enough points to lead a week where only 4 other players managed to top the 20 point mark. Most notable in that group are Jamaal Williams and De’Andre Swift, who were avoided like the plague in most drafts and seemed to fall pretty far until being picked late. Both Williams and Swift had 8 receptions, over 100 yards from scrimmage, and scored a touchdown in the Lions’ opening day loss to the 49ers.

12-100 Yard Receiving Games

The NFL truly is a passing league in 2021. There were 12 wide receivers who hit the 100-yard mark, versus only 5 running backs who hit 100 rushing yards. Leading the way was one of the top WRs picked in the draft, Tyreek Hill, who put up a massive 197 yards on 11 receptions and 15 targets. He also found the end zone in the Chiefs' comeback victory, and thus assuring the Chiefs multiple mentions in this column, as is tradition. One rookie joined the group over 100 yards, the aforementioned Ja’Marr Chase, squeaking by at 101 yards. An old favorite also found himself in the group - Antonio Brown, who put up 5 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in his best opening day performance since 2017. Finally, an honorable mention must go to Darren Waller, who cracked the 100-yard mark on his game-tying TD in the 4th quarter of last night’s game and managed to be the only tight end to hit the century mark in week 1 of this season.

5 Passing TDs

...And 148 passing yards. What? The Jameis Winston era in New Orleans (via Jacksonville) has begun with a stat line that the NFL has never seen. Never before has someone thrown for 5 TDs on less than 150 passing yards. Along with zero INTs, I suppose that Lasik surgery worked wonders. Winston had 14 completions on 20 attempts, totaling 29.62 fantasy points, good for the QB4 on the week. He is currently owned in only 56% of Fleaflicker leagues. The QB3 on the week, Jared Goff, is only owned in 40% of leagues! The wire is going to be hot this week. But I digress. The story of this game was the Packers scoring only 3 points. I don’t think that there’s much to worry about on the offensive side for Green Bay, but I do think their defense can be exploited in fantasy matchups all season long.

Here's a sneak peek of tonight's Fantasy Finish Line Podcast with Dave and I. We'll discuss news, all the rapid changes in rosters in the league, and random stuff that comes up along the way. Make sure to tune in at 9pm on YouTube.

• Where do we start? First off, there’s the covid news. Aaron Rodgers tested positive, and he’s out for Week 9’s game against the Chiefs. The Packers 3rd string QB is out too, and it’s certainly possible that Jordan Love can test positive before Sunday as well. Blake Bortles was signed earlier today and spent training camp with the Packers, so he’ll slot in if everything goes haywire for the Packers. Davante Adams was placed on the covid list on 10/25 so should be cleared to return this week. Adams and Jones remain a must start against a poor Chiefs defense. Allen Lazard has been taken off the covid list, so that’s a good sign for Adams being available on Sunday.

• Henry Ruggs….lots has been said about him, but fantasy wise - Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow should see a bit more usage, but I expect Zay Jones to be the one to get the deep targets. Ruggs was in on 65-80% of snaps, but only saw about 5 targets per game. Renfrow should see an increase in snaps as he was more of a 55-65% guy and could see a bump to his 7 targets per game.

• Saquon Barkley is also on the covid list, so even if his ankle is rehabbed, he won’t be returning this week. The Giants are on bye the following week. Also with the Giants, Kenny Golladay returned to practice today, and Sterling Shepard looks like he’ll be out at least through the bye next week. The WR group for the Giants continues to be a revolving door, and your decision on who to start will likely go right up to game time on Sunday.

• Dak Prescott is back at practice this week, it would appear that the Cooper Rush era will be put on hold for now. Michael Gallup has been designated to return from IR, but still has not been active.

• Calvin Ridley stepped away from the Falcons indefinitely, and abruptly, on Sunday morning. It’s always important to watch those inactives! The biggest beneficiary of this will probably be Russell Gage, with Kyle Pitts now being the primary target in the offense. I expect Gage’s snap count to go way up, and his zero targets last week to be a fluke. 

• Odell Beckham Jr. appears to be on the way out in Cleveland. They did not find a trade partner for him, so, considering the team asked him not to come in, he will likely be put on waivers and then cut if nobody claims him. Plenty of teams would probably take a chance on him, with the Saints high on that list, but it seems like his days in Cleveland are done. He’s averaging less than 6 targets per game, and playing less than 70% of snaps. His presence won’t be missed. Jarvis Landry will continue to be the only weekly start catching passes for the run-heavy Browns.

• Christian McCaffrey has been designated to return from IR, right on schedule with his initially reported timeline. This doesn’t need to officially happen until Saturday in order to play on Sunday, so keep an eye on the news. As usual, McCaffrey should be in your starting lineup if he’s playing.

• DeAndre Hopkins is not practicing this week. He only played in 15 snaps last Thursday night, apparently on some of those he snuck in and wasn’t supposed to be on the field. He’s one of the few players that can perform well if he does not practice all week, so just keep an eye on his status on Sunday - he does play a late afternoon game. He needs to be in your lineup if he’s playing. Kyler Murray also did not practice today, but he should be good to go this week after injuring his ankle late in the game last Thursday night.

• Is there such a thing as WR burnout? Michael Thomas led the league in receptions in 2018 and 2019, with a record-breaking 149 catches in ‘19. Since then he’s played in just 7 games and has announced that he won’t be returning in 2021. He’s still under contract for 2022 and will be 29 at that time. Expect the Saints to make a play for Odell Beckham once he is finally cut, or any other free agent WR for that matter.

• Derrick Henry suffered a (fantasy) season ending injury on Sunday and is supposed to be out for 6-10 weeks. An extremely optimistic outlook might have him back in time for the fantasy playoffs, but I find that to be unlikely at best. If you have the luxury of a free IR spot, then definitely use it. Otherwise I think it’s safe to drop him and let someone else waste a roster spot on him in the hopes he returns in Week 16 or 17 of the NFL season. If the Titans are in the playoffs at that time, they would be smart to just hold him until the playoffs start. If they are eliminated, then there’s no reason to bring him back. Jeremy McNichols stands to see a big increase in carries, and the passing game will probably also see a boost for the Titans. It remains to be seen how the Titans want to use Adrian Peterson, and how much use he actually gets.

• Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Saints win against the Bucs and is out for the rest of the season, and probably out of New Orleans, practically speaking. For now, we’ll see a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian under center for the Saints. This doesn’t affect the Saints fantasy players much because nobody was doing anything other than Kamara anyways! (True - Marquez Callaway has been a flex play from weeks 3-5 but that’s about it, only putting up 3 fantasy points in each of the last two matchups).