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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now a third of the way through the NFL season, and by now you have an idea if your team is a contender or has some work to do to get back in the hunt. Week 7 could be a crucial one for fantasy leagues. We’ve seen weeks with 6 teams on a bye before, but all the high-end fantasy players sitting in week 7 have had many in the fantasy community dubbing this week the ‘bye-pocalypse’, ‘bye-nado’, ‘bye-mageddon’, ‘bye-palooza’, and maybe my personal favorite, ‘bye-gnarok.’ Finding a way to navigate all the byes and field a lineup that can still compete and win this week is a challenge, but a win this week will feel extra rewarding. There are plenty of rookies who can help you shore up your incomplete lineups. Pretty much anyone with a pulse is in play this week, so some of the borderline and sleeper options may be deeper names than you’re used to seeing there. You may need a shower after you set your lineup this week, but hopefully some of my words can make you feel less gross about starting some of these guys.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 7…

Rookies to Start:

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Hubbard has been functioning as the Panthers’ lead back for 4 games now, and he’s topped 65 scrimmage yards and touched the ball at least 14 times in all of them, and head coach Matt Rhule came out this week and said the Panthers need to run the ball more. Hubbard hasn’t been great in the passing game and has been ceding 3^rd down snaps to Royce Freeman, but that hasn’t been a problem for his fantasy performances. He’s handled 53 of the team’s 60 RB rushing attempts in the 3 games McCaffrey has missed. As long as game scripts are at least neutral, Hubbard should get plenty of volume. The Panthers’ next 3 opponents are the Giants, Falcons and Patriots, none of whom have more than 2 wins. This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 27^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Hubbard is a top-15 RB option this week in this plus matchup.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): In case you aren’t already treating him as such, Chase has officially ascended to must-start territory. Through 6 games, he’s topped 75 receiving yards and/or scored a touchdown in every game this season. The Ravens allow the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA, but you should be starting Chase regardless of matchups. There’s bound to be a down week or two at some point, but he has 20-point upside each and every week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Waddle has now played in two full games with Tua Tagovailoa as his starting QB. He’s seen a 24.3% target share in those games and topped 16 PPR points in each. It’s true that most of those targets came last Sunday with DeVante Parker sidelined, but the Dolphins’ tight ends were targeted 15 times in that game as well. Assuming he plays, I’d expect most of Parker’s workload this week to come from Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe. The Falcons allow the 8^th-most WR points per game, and Waddle is clearly going to see targets. He’s a high-floor WR3 in PPR leagues this week.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pitts had the breakout game we were all waiting for in London heading into Atlanta’s bye week, but will he continue to produce at a high level with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage returning this week? That remains to be seen, but you have to get him into the lineup anyway. The rookie has seen 6 or more targets in 4 of his 5 games this season and gets to face a Miami defense that is allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game. It isn’t a cake matchup, but it isn’t a tough one either. Pitts should be a top-10 TE play this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): My listing of Jones as a borderline rookie applies only to 2-QB and superflex leagues. You shouldn’t be considering him in any 1-QB formats. The Jets have allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t played many high-powered offenses, and teams have scored on the ground rather than through the air against them. They’ve allowed 7 rushing TDs, and just 4 through the air. The Jets have forced just 1 QB turnover through 5 games and rank a middling 16^th in pass defense DVOA. They’re the only team Mac Jones failed to throw a TD against so far, and I’d expect him to correct that this week. Don’t expect a high-volume effort from Mac, but he’s probably going to finish the week as a mid-range QB2.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Week 5 seemingly put to rest any debates about what the 49ers backfield split is going to look like going forward. Mitchell has a stranglehold on the early down work (he handled 75% of the non-Trey Lance rushing attempts against Arizona), and Kyle Juszczyk will mix in on passing downs and play some traditional fullback. Trey Sermon was on the field for just 2 offensive snaps in week 5. The Colts aren’t an easy team to run against, ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA, but the 49ers are going to run the football, and with Jimmy G back under center, the bulk of those attempts will likely go to Mitchell. He’s a better play in non-PPR formats, but his expected volume in the bye-palooza week makes him a solid RB3 option against the Colts.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 7: @Cle.): Williams continues to make at least one “Wow” play seemingly every week, but it still hasn’t pushed him ahead of Melvin Gordon on the depth chart. The rookie has been making the most of his opportunities, averaging nearly 70 scrimmage yards per game in his last 4 outings with at least 3 receptions each week, and the Broncos have a chance to control the game script this week with the Browns starting most of their second-string offense. Despite that situation, I’d pump the brakes before getting too excited about Javonte. The Browns rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, and Williams is still splitting the backfield with Melvin Gordon. He’s a reasonable fill-in if you’re fighting through byes, but I would treat him as an RB3 option with limited upside in what should be an ugly game. This game has the lowest over/under total of the week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): Herbert worked wonders for fantasy managers who rolled him out in starting lineups last week, finishing with 112 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but you may be playing with fire if you decide to get him in your lineup again this week. I originally expected Damien Williams to return this week, but it turns out that he’s unvaccinated and probably going to miss another game on the Covid list. Tampa Bay has allowed just 2 running backs to reach 50 yards on the ground against them all year, and none to reach 70, so Herbert is unlikely to pile up a big rushing yardage day. They’ve also allowed just 1 RB rushing score for the season. If you start Herbert, you’re counting on him getting some receiving work, which Dame’s absence opens the door for. The Bucs do allow 7.5 running back receptions per game. Herbert didn’t see much receiving work in college and saw just an 11% target share as the lead back last week, but he was in a route on 80% of the Bears’ pass plays. The bye-palooza, and Williams’ expected absence make Herbert an upside RB3 this week. If you’re deciding between Herbert and Javonte Williams, Javonte probably has a safer floor, but Herbert has a higher ceiling.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 7:  @NE): This is probably not a game you want to target for fantasy, but Carter has handled 55% of the Jets’ RB touches over the last 4 games, and his best game of the season so far came against these Patriots in week 2, where he totaled 88 scrimmage yards on 13 touches. Don’t get carried away here. The Patriots rank 9^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game, so the matchup isn’t great, but Carter is in play with so many byes across the league this week. He’s a low-end RB3 option in Foxboro.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Smith was a big letdown last week in a potential blow-up spot against Tampa Bay, and there’s no guarantee he bounces back in this one. I do expect his volume to get back to the level we’ve grown accustomed to – week 6 was the first time all season that Smith was targeted fewer than 6 times – but this matchup isn’t an easy one. The Raiders have allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, and Smith will spend a lot of his day squaring off with Casey Hayward. Hayward has proven to be one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, allowing just 3.2 yards per target and a 51.3 passer rating on throws into his coverage. He also boasts Pro Football Focus’ highest coverage grade among all cornerbacks this season. Smith is still in play as a WR3/4 option, especially with all the byes this week. He won’t be matched up with Hayward on every play. Just keep in mind that his floor isn’t all that safe this week.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 7: @LAR): The ‘Sun God’ posted his worst fantasy performance of October last Sunday, but it was the 3^rd consecutive week where he’s seen at least 7 targets and hauled in 5+ receptions. His passing game role has been consistent, and should be again, even in this tough matchup. The Rams rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 15^th-most WR points per game. Garbage time has helped teams put up passing points against them, and it’s hard to imagine the Lions not having a lot of garbage time. The Rams are favored by 15 points in this one. St. Brown may spend some time matched up with Jalen Ramsey, but I wouldn’t let that scare me away from him if you’re considering starting him. I’d view ARSB as a floor play WR4 in PPR leagues.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Cin.): Bateman made his return from IR last week, and immediately stepped into a 22% target share in his first game back. I wouldn’t expect that to hold every week, but I expect him to carve out a role as one of the top-3 pass catchers on this team with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. Cincinnati isn’t an easy WR matchup. The Bengals allow the 12^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but both of those marks are worse than the Charger defense he faced last week. I’d look for another 5-7 targets for Bateman this week and think he’s an upside WR4 option if you’re hurting for WR help.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Wilson has had two weeks to shake off his miserable day in London against the Falcons, but you can’t look to him as an option this week even in 2-QB leagues. I’d love to see the BYU product post a bounce back game in Foxboro, but he threw 4 interceptions the last time he faced the Patriots and has been picked at least once in all 5 of his starts. I’d be more inclined to start Case Keenum tonight if I was desperate in a 2-QB league rather than roll Wilson out in any lineups.

QB Davis Mills, ARI (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Mills has started 4 games so far this season. One of them was a magical performance against the New England Patriots where he topped 300 yards and threw 3 TDs on his way to nearly 25 fantasy points. In the other three he’s averaged just over 6 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, and the Texans have a pathetic implied total of just 14.5 points. Anything over 10 fantasy points should be seen as a win for Mills in this one.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): If you were thinking of starting Lance this week, you probably won’t get the chance. Trey is expected to be out this week dealing with an injury suffered against the Cardinals in week 5. Expect Jimmy Garoppolo to get the start.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Gainwell has some upside against a Vegas defense that has allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game, but I don’t see how you can roll him out in lineups this week after he saw just 28 snaps, 2 carries, and 5 targets in the last 2 weeks combined. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen said this week that they need to get Miles Sanders more involved in the offense. That comment isn’t reassuring if you were hoping Gainwell’s usage would tick back up this week. I’d keep him parked on the bench, even in the bye-pocalypse.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Browns have officially ruled out Nick Chubb for Thursday night’s game against the Broncos, and have placed Kareem Hunt on IR, so it’ll be Felton and D’Ernest Johnson left to man the Browns’ backfield this week. If you’re looking for a Browns’ running back as a fill-in for a player on a bye, D’Ernest is the one you want. Felton has played more snaps than Johnson this season, but he’s spent just 2 of them lined up in the backfield, and 31 of them lined up in the slot or out wide. Johnson, on the other hand, has spent all of his snaps in the backfield, and handled the running back snaps after Hunt went down last weekend. Denver looks like a daunting run defense on paper, allowing the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but they’ve allowed over 50 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to 4 different backs in the last 3 games. The bulk of that damage has come on the ground, and D’Ernest figures to see the bulk of the rushing work, with Felton likely handling passing downs. The Broncos allow the fewest RB receptions, and 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards per game. Felton is only worth considering if you’re very desperate in a full PPR league.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Don’t Chase last week’s points with Evans. The rookie had his best game as a pro and doubled his total snap count for the season, but most of those snaps and 5 of his 7 touches came with the Bengals leading by 17+ points. He did manage to find the end zone on his first touch of the game, and his increased opportunity is undoubtedly a good sign, but this is still Joe Mixon’s backfield. The Bengals are highly unlikely to post another blowout this week against the Ravens. If Evans continues to see an increased workload on passing downs, there is a sliver of hope for him. The Ravens allow the 2^nd most RB receiving yards per game. I wouldn’t count on more than 3 receptions or so for the rookie though.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Sermon has been on the field for three snaps in the games this season that Elijah Mitchell has been active for. While I expect him to play at least a little more than that going forward, he’s not seeing the field enough for consideration in your fantasy lineups, even in a week like this.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Moore played his highest snap share of the season in week 6, but he continued to show that he’s going to be a boom-or-bust option from week to week. He’s averaged 93 scrimmage yards in his three ‘boom’ games, and 22 per game in his 3 ‘bust’ performances. Pretty much every offensive weapon on the Cardinals is capable of a boom game against the hapless Texans, as Arizona is an 18.5-point favorite with a 33-point implied total, but I would still bet against a big game from Moore. The Cardinals have been creative in getting Rondale involved, giving him 8 rushing attempts in the last 3 weeks, but the ways the Cards deploy him are less likely to lead to big things this week. 85% of Rondale’s targets in the passing game have been 9 yards or fewer downfield, and more than half of them have been behind the line of scrimmage. The Texans have allowed the 5^th-fewest yards after the catch in the league. Rondale has long odds of posting a big yardage day on the type of targets he’s been seeing. He’s a volatile WR4 option in deeper leagues this week.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): As of now, I’m operating under the assumption that Toney isn’t going to play against the Panthers. He played last week despite a ‘questionable’ tag and didn’t make it through the first quarter before being ruled out for the day. The Giants would be wise to give him the week off and hope he’s able to come back at full strength in week 8. If he does suit up this week, he’s in play as an upside WR4 option against a Panther defense that allows 10^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Moore is going to post a big game eventually, but to-date he’s only reached 25 or more receiving yards one time. That one time was against these Patriots in week 2, but he finished with just 4 catches for 47 yards on 8 targets in that game, hardly a useful fantasy line. Moore missed week 4 with a concussion before returning for the London game in week 5, and he saw just 2 targets in that game with Jamison Crowder back in the mix. It was the first time Moore and Crowder both played in the same game. I’m going to need to see him be more active than that with Crowder around before I consider Elijah for lineups again.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Collins was back in action last weekend after being activated from injured reserve, and he actually posted a respectable game with 4 catches and 44 yards on 6 targets. Collins shared playing time with Chris Moore and Chris Conley behind Brandin Cooks. I wouldn’t look to get him into lineups, but he’s worth monitoring to see if those targets continue going forward. He could even be a sneaky dart throw this week for limited slate DFS tournaments. The Cardinals have a solid pass defense that ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 11^th-most WR points per game thanks to a lot of garbage time against them. Arizona has allowed 3 WRs to score 16+ fantasy points against them this year – KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. It hasn’t been the primary receivers who have put up the biggest days against the Cardinals.   

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Brown had his biggest opportunity to make an impact of the season so far against the Chiefs last week and failed to do so. Kansas City has been bleeding big plays in the passing game, but Taylor Heinicke’s deep throws to Dyami continued to not connect. Dyami saw 6 targets in the game that totaled 80 air yards. The three that he caught accounted for 21 of those air yards. The 3 that he didn’t catch accounted for 59. This week’s opponent, the Packers, have allowed the 3^rd-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season. Don’t look for Brown to get on track this week. The absence of Jaire Alexander may even hurt Brown, as it means Terry McLaurin will have a more favorable matchup.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): I was tempted to list Schwartz as a sleeper this week with Odell Beckham Jr. potentially sidelined, but the return of Jarvis Landry likely saps any sneaky upside the rookie had in this one. Schwartz was used as a downfield threat in week 1 when Beckham was out, and Denver has allowed the 2^nd-most 40+ yard completions in the league so far. With Landry active, Schwartz is nothing more than a dart throw in showdown DFS tournaments.

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Marshall exited last week’s game against the Vikings after suffering a concussion, and his status for week 7 remains up in the air. Even if he’s able to return this week, he’s garnered more than 3 targets just once in the last 5 games. If Marshall is out, fellow rookie Shi Smith is likely to step into the WR3 role. The Giants aren’t an imposing defense, allowing the 12^th-most WR points per game, but Smith would be unlikely to see any more volume than Marshall had been seeing. Both are best left out of lineups.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 7: @NYG): Tremble’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, as his snap share increased to a season-high 51% in week 6, but targets and fantasy production haven’t followed with it. Tremble has been targeted just 7 total times in the three games since Dan Arnold was traded to Jacksonville. That limited volume isn’t worth chasing this week. The Giants are a decent matchup for tight ends, allowing the 12^th-most points per game to the position, but Tremble is unlikely to take advantage.

TE Jack Stoll, PHI (Wk. 7: @LV): Chances are you aren’t familiar with the name Jack Stoll, but after Zach Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this week, the undrafted rookie is the only tight end on the Eagles’ roster beyond Dallas Goedert. In the season’s first 6 weeks, Philly lined up with multiple tight ends on the field on 27% of their plays, so Stoll may see an increased role moving forward, but it won’t be a fantasy relevant role. His spot as the TE2 on the depth chart could be short lived. The Eagles have signed Richard Rodgers to their practice squad and opened the practice window for Tyree Jackson this week to potentially return from injured reserve. There’s no reason to give any consideration to Stoll at this point, even in the deepest of leagues.

Rookies on bye in week 7: QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX, RB Najee Harris, PIT, RB Larry Rountree III, LAC, WR Josh Palmer, LAC, TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 7: @TB): If the Bears want to have success against the Bucs, they’re going to have to ask Justin Fields to throw the ball more. They’re not going to find much success running the ball against them, and the Bucs have allowed 275+ passing yards in 5 of their first 6 games. Fields hasn’t attempted 30 passes in a game yet and has been abysmal for fantasy purposes, but this game figures to be his highest volume passing day yet and we finally saw him start to use his legs last week and add points with rushing yards. The Bucs have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. You shouldn’t be scared to put Fields in as your QB2 this week in superflex leagues if your options are limited.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Stevenson seems to have gotten himself out of the Belichick doghouse and finds himself in a favorable spot this week. The Patriots are a touchdown favorite over a Jets team that allows the 2^nd-most RB points per game. Damien Harris is going to lead the way in this backfield, but Stevenson should see a fair number of opportunities as well. It was a pleasant surprise to see Rhamondre running downfield receiving routes in Dallas last weekend, and if receiving usage continues, he’s going to have some unexpected upside. The rookie wouldn’t be my first choice as a starter this week, but he’s not a terrible option if you’re desperate.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 7: @GB): Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a shin injury all season without missing a game, but he does seem to be in real jeopardy of missing this week’s tilt with the Packers after aggravating it last weekend. If Gibson is out, Patterson will have a chance at a significant role sharing the backfield with JD McKissic. McKissic is best utilized as a satellite receiving back, and that could leave a lot of the early down rushing work to Patterson. We saw what Khalil Herbert did last weekend to this Green Bay defense that ranks 30^th in run defense DVOA. I don’t expect Patterson to have that kind of game, but 50+ yards isn’t out of the question if Gibson sits. I’d view him as more of a desperation play than anything, but this week there are some desperate fantasy managers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now made it halfway through the fantasy regular season, and you should have a pretty good idea of whether your team is in good position for the playoffs, or if you have some work to do to get back in the hunt. Keep grinding even if you don’t feel great about where you’re at right now. A big second half can still get you back into your league playoff picture.

By this point in the season, we’ve seen 3 rookies truly establish themselves as every-week must starts: Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kyle Pitts. I know that you already know to start them every week, but they’re still going to show up in the report as ‘Rookies to Start’ each week unless something drastic happens, and I’ll still include some tidbits about what to expect from them each week. This is the point in the year when we start to see some late-blooming rookies asserting themselves a bit more, and being able to pinpoint which rookies will step up can give you an edge if you’re trying to get back into contention. I’m here to help you do just that as we head into week 8.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. There are a LOT of running backs listed as ‘Borderline’ this week, so please keep this in mind and read what’s written about each. Let’s dive into week 8…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): This probably isn’t a ceiling week for Najee against what’s been a strong Cleveland run defense, but the rookie has scored at least 16 fantasy points in 5 straight games and should be locked into starting lineups. The Browns rank 3^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 6^th-fewest running back points per game. Harris shouldn’t be a chalky DFS play this week, but he’s still a safe starter in season-long leagues.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): This week feels like a bit of a trap game for Chase. The Jets have played from behind a lot this season, and as a result they’ve been bleeding a ton of points to running backs, but not so many to wide receivers. They’ve given up 6 and half more RB points per game than any other team in the league, and the 3^rd-fewest per game to wide receivers. There may be plenty of Joe Mixon in this game, but Chase is still going to get his. He’s been targeted 9+ times in 3 of the last 4 games, and against the Jets’ undermanned defense, he should have no problem making it 8 games in a row of 10+ fantasy points even if his volume dips a bit. The Jets rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): I won’t fault you if you’re a little gun-shy about getting Smith into your lineup since the Eagles’ inconsistent passing game seems to have capped his ceiling, but this is as good a spot as you’ll find to fire him up. Smith has seen 38% of the Eagles’ air yards this season, and no team has been burned down the field as consistently as the Lions. Detroit allows the highest average yards before catch per completion in the league, and Smith and QB Jalen Hurts will likely connect on a few balls of 15+ yards in this one. DeVonta has WR2 upside against a Detroit defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 8: @KC): Toney and teammate Kenny Golladay are both practicing as of Thursday, so both players seem to be on track to play Monday night, but Toney is the one I would want to play in lineups. Toney was dominating the looks and production in this offense the last couple games he played in, and the Chiefs rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. There should be plenty of passing volume for the Giants in this one, and if Toney is close to 100%, I like his chances at 7+ targets against a porous pass defense. If you plan to play Kadarius, keep an eye on the injury report and make sure he’s good to go, or make sure you have a backup plan in case he winds up inactive, but he’s going to reward fantasy managers who take the risk if he plays. He doesn’t have the safe floor that Smith or Chase do, but he’s got a WR1 ceiling.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): A lot of people treated Kyle Pitts’ huge day in London as his true breakout game, but it was nothing compared to what he did in week 7. Yes, he scored more fantasy points in London than he did this past week by virtue of finding the end zone, but the way he piled up his stats against the Dolphins was more impressive. He beat man coverage and made circus downfield catches repeatedly on his way to over 160 yards receiving, and he did so with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage back on the field after both missed the London trip. Yes, there will be more games where Pitts’ usage is puzzlingly low, but you’ve now seen the ceiling and why you can’t sit him if you have him. The Panthers have been above average against tight ends this year, but they’ve also allowed three tight end scores in the last 4 games.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 8: @Sea.): After a truly awful start to the season, Trevor Lawrence has looked more like the number 1 pick in recent weeks, limiting turnovers and keeping his team in games. The Jaguars have limited his passing volume with a heavy dose of James Robinson, but that hasn’t stopped the rookie from averaging 265 passing yards per game in his last 3. The Seahawks have been a very burnable secondary, ranking 25^th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Seattle will want to slow the game down with Geno Smith at QB, so a 300-yard day probably isn’t in the offing for Trevor, but he should be a solid mid-range QB2 in this one.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Chuba is coming off his worst game since stepping in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, but Atlanta seems like the perfect opponent to bounce back against. The Falcons have coughed up the 9^th-most RB points per game and rank 28^th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed double-digit fantasy points to an opposing back in every game but the one against Tampa. The Bucs have the 2^nd-lowest run rate in the league. Chuba has been losing some passing down work to Royce Freeman most weeks, but he’s still handled at least 15 touches in each of the last 4 games. As long as the Panthers are in this game, Hubbard is going to be heavily involved. He’s a solid RB2 option despite the letdown game last week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): With the injury to Miles Sanders, Gainwell is in line for a much bigger workload in week 8. He’ll share backfield duties with Boston Scott, and both could be start-able facing off with a Detroit defense that allows the 4^th-most RB points per game. Detroit ranks just 21^st in run defense DVOA, so both backs should have some success on the ground. Boston Scott saw 3 rushing attempts inside the 10 yard-line last week while Gainwell saw just 1, but Detroit is just as likely to give up a receiving score to a running back as a rushing one (6 of each allowed so far). The plus matchup, the Eagles implied point total of 25.75 this week, and Gainwell’s extensive usage as a receiver give him the edge over the backs listed after him in this section.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Herbert has handled at least 18 rushing attempts in each of the Bears last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead back until David Montgomery returns. I do think Damien Williams will be more involved on passing downs this week than he was last week (he missed the entire practice week on the Covid list last week), and the Bears aren’t likely to be in as deep a hole on the scoreboard as they were last week, so Herbert probably won’t repeat his 5 receptions from last week. That shouldn’t be a huge concern as rushing volume is going to carry the day for Herbert again. The 49ers are a solid run defense, but nowhere near as stout as the Bucs defense Herbert shredded in week 7. He should be on the cusp of another RB2 week.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): On the other side of the Bears-49ers tilt, Elijah Mitchell will continue to lead the 49ers’ backfield this week. JaMycal Hasty did play a bigger role than I anticipated in his first game off the IR, playing about a third of the offensive snaps, but Mitchell was the ballcarrier on 18 of the team’s 21 RB rushing attempts. There is some risk that Hasty’s involvement grows as he gets further out from his injury, but I would expect Mitchell’s stranglehold on the early down work to continue for now. Mitchell hasn’t been as consistently efficient as Khalil Herbert, and Mitchell has had virtually zero passing game usage. That’s why I’d give Herbert a slight edge over Mitchell this week in spite of the 49ers being a better run defense than the Bears have been. Both are reasonable options if you need a fill-in RB2 or high-end flex running back.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Carter has clearly established himself as the lead back for the Jets right now, as his share of backfield touches has gone from 56% to 59% to 63% in the last 3 games, and the switch to Mike White at QB could benefit him in the receiving game this week. 14 of White’s 32 attempts after replacing Zach Wilson last week were intended for Carter or Ty Johnson, with 9 of them going to Carter. The Bengals have allowed the 2^nd-most receptions per game to running backs. The concern for Carter is that there just isn’t going to be much production on the ground, and there is minimal TD upside. The Jets have an implied total of just 16.5 points, and the Bengals rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. Carter is a deeper flex option in PPR leagues.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Williams turned in a strong performance Thursday night against the Browns despite rushing for just 20 yards. It was his receiving usage that paved the way as he set a season-high with 6 receptions and scored a receiving touchdown. He’s now caught at least 3 passes in 5 consecutive games, but the return of Jerry Jeudy is going to pull targets from somewhere. This is another week where Williams could struggle to be productive on the ground. Washington ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA and give up the bulk of the damage they allow through the air. Javonte is likely going to need another ceiling receiving week to be a useful fantasy starter, and I don’t think that’s very likely with Jeudy back. Javonte’s full-on timeshare with Melvin Gordon caps him enough that I wouldn’t play him over any of the other rookie backs listed above.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Waddle has now played 3 full games with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and he’s scored at least 15 PPR points in all 3. This week’s matchup is a tough one though. The Bills are allowing the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA. Slot corner Taron Johnson is allowing just 4.6 yards per target and a 65.6 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Waddle is still likely to be peppered with targets in this game, so volume should get him into the PPR WR3 range. Just know there is more risk in this matchup than we’ve seen in the last couple weeks with Waddle.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Week 7 illustrated exactly why fantasy football managers are more excited about Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson this year despite Mac clearly playing the best ball of that group. Jones put on a clinic in week 7, throwing for more than 400 yards against the hapless Jets in a game where the Patriots piled up more than 50 points…and he barely cracked the top-10 QBs for the week. New England has the 6^th-highest run rate in the red zone (they were the highest in 2020), and Mac isn’t the guy running the ball. He isn’t adding points with his legs, and the team’s penchant for running in the red zone caps Mac’s ceiling. He gets a much tougher matchup this week against the Chargers. LA has allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t a spot to trot Jones out there even in 2-QB lineups.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Even with 81 rushing yards in the last two weeks, Fields hasn’t managed to post a 15-point fantasy day yet. There’s no way to reasonably recommend starting Fields given how bad this offense has looked in recent weeks, even in 2 QB formats. It’s promising that Fields is running the ball more, and at some point, the Bears will probably get things on track and get the rookie to a solid fantasy game. Unfortunately, no one will have him in their lineups when it finally happens. 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Another week, another matchup against one of the best defenses in the NFL for Mills. Mills will be making his 6^th start of the season this week (assuming Tyrod Taylor isn’t ready to return), and he’ll be facing a team ranked in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA for the 4^th time, and a team in the top-5 for the 3^rd time. In those first 3 meetings with top-10 defenses, Mills totaled 390 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 5 turnovers. There is no format where you should feel good about starting Davis Mills this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Stevenson flashed some surprising receiving skills in week 6, and then was back to being a healthy scratch in week 7. Bill Belichick loves to toy with us fantasy managers. Stevenson may be active again this week, but you certainly can’t count on it. The Chargers rank dead last in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Stevenson if he sees any opportunity in this game, but I don’t expect him to see much of that.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Nick Chubb is expected to return this week, but even with Chubb sidelined, Felton was on the field for just 22 snaps and handled 5 touches last Thursday against the Broncos. Chubb’s return means we’ll likely only see Felton for a handful of snaps again. Even if Chubb isn’t back, Felton will be mostly the passing down back against a Steelers defense that allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi): Sermon is now behind both Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty on the depth chart (and possibly Kyle Juszczyk too). Just don’t.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Austin Ekeler spoke this week about wanting to see one of his fellow running backs take charge of the complementary back role in this backfield, but there’s no reason to believe it will be Rountree who steps up after he was limited to just special teams work in week 5 and was a healthy scratch in week 6 ahead of the Chargers’ bye. Ekeler did pop up on the injury report on Thursday with a hip injury, so it’s worth monitoring his status, but Rountree probably isn’t the guy seeing a big boost if Ekeler sits.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Moore’s two biggest yardage days this season have come at home in Glendale, but his playing time just isn’t consistent enough to trust. The Arizona debut of Zach Ertz pushed Rondale to the lowest route participation rate he’s seen in the last few weeks, and his aDOT last week was negative. With the way he’s being used, he’s going to need some big yards after catch numbers to prove useful, and Green Bay has allowed the 7^th-fewest yards after catch per game. Moore is nothing more than an upside dart throw on Thursday.

WR Amon-Ra St.Brown, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): From week 4 through week 6, Amon-Ra was targeted at least 7 times each game. In week 7, he shockingly went without a target despite being on the field for more than 60% of the Lions’ offensive snaps. I’d expect him to get more opportunities this week, but with only 2 teams on byes you can’t be desperate enough to bet on an ARSB bounce-back. The opportunities he does get will come mostly against Philly slot corner Avonte Maddox, who has allowed just 4.1 yards per target and a 65.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Stay away from Amon-Ra this week.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): I was halfway tempted to list Moore as a sleeper this week after the Jets traded for Joe Flacco. Flacco has had success throughout his career throwing the deep ball, and the Jets have frequently had Moore running downfield routes, but Mike White is going to get the start this week and Moore’s usage just isn’t consistent enough to trust him with such a dicey QB situation. Moore did score his first NFL touchdown last week on a 19-yard run, but it’s not a sign you should be getting him into your lineups.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): If you read what I wrote about Davis Mills above, you know it’s a bad idea to roll the dice on Collins this week. Collins has totaled 11 targets in his two games since returning from injured reserve, but against defenses that rank in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA, Davis Mills averages just 130 passing yards per start. The Rams rank 4^th. Yes, there could be a lot of passing volume for the Texans if they fall into a hole as two touchdown underdogs, but the only place Nico is worth consideration is as a cheap option in a DFS showdown tournament. His outlook wouldn’t get much of a boost if Tyrod Taylor is able to return this week.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 8: @Den.): Brown is expected to miss this week’s game in Denver and hasn’t been productive enough to be an option even if he was going to play.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Marshall still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday after sustaining a week 6 concussion. I’d expect him to be out again, and don’t expect him to be very useful even if active.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): The Falcons allow the 12^th-most tight end points per game, but Tremble hasn’t put up more than 12 receiving yards in any of the past 4 games. He isn’t a fantasy option right now.

Rookies on bye in week 8: WR Rashod Bateman, BAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): Jimmy Garoppolo has been named the starter for the 49ers week 8 game against the Bears, but the changing of the guard at QB is coming sooner rather than later if the 49ers don’t start putting up some wins. Lance is a guy you should be stashing for the stretch run. We’ve already seen the kinds of fantasy points he can produce when given the opportunity. Lance put up 20 points in a single half in his first extended action of the season and managed to put up nearly 14 points in his first full game despite not producing a single touchdown. His rushing production gives him a very high floor, a ceiling few other QBs can match.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Evans didn’t practice Wednesday and is listed as questionable for this game, but if he’s good to go, there is a ton of upside for him in what could be a lopsided game. His usage is too questionable to trust in season-long leagues after last week was the Mixon & Perine show in this backfield, but this is a perfect matchup for Evans to make an impact. We’ve seen Evans post a 2-TD game against the Detroit Lions, and he has a similar ceiling in this one. The Jets allow the most running back receptions and receiving yards per game, and they’ve allowed 3 different receiving backs to clear 12 fantasy points against them (James White, Jeremy McNichols, and Brandon Bolden). Evans costs a measly $200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings this week.

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Green Bay is in a desperate situation at wide receiver this week with both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard placed on the Covid reserve list this week. Both players are expected to miss this game, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been ruled out for another week as well. That leaves Randall Cobb as the WR1, with some combo of Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Taylor and Rodgers rounding out the WR group. Since the Covid updates came during the week, the DraftKings showdown prices for ESB and Rodgers remain extremely low ($600 and $400, respectively), but one or both will play a sizable role in this game. I do think we’ll see Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan handle larger target shares than usual, but Green Bay is likely going to have to throw to keep pace with Arizona’s high-powered offense. The Cardinals allow the 16^th-most WR points per game, so not a brutal matchup by any means. Rodgers is in play as a dart throw in those showdown contests, but should still be avoided in season-long formats.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): The Browns aren’t an easy matchup for tight ends, allowing the 11^th-fewest points per game to the position, but Freiermuth seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the season-ending injury to Juju Smith-Schuster, and the Browns are much better against the run than the pass. It’s only been one game since the Juju injury, but Freiermuth saw his largest snap and highest target totals of the season, and I’d expect that increased usage to continue going forward. Freiermuth should be treated as a fringe TE1 this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 83-yard Rushing Attempt

Jonathan Taylor set a franchise record with an 83-yard rush that amazingly did not score a touchdown. Taylor is averaging 25.9 points per game over the last 3 weeks, he has 441 yards from scrimmage and 5 touchdowns over that time. He’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry during those games and had an explosive 116 yards of receiving in Week 5. Taylor now sits as the RB4 on the season – this week he finished as the RB1 and he’s been in the top 10 for the past 3 weeks. Among the top 5 fantasy RBs, only Austin Ekeler has fewer touches (100) than Taylor (102). Taylor had at least 3x as many yards as anyone else on his team, save for TY Hilton, who he almost doubled up, as TY had 80 yards against an opponent who he routinely torches, despite having just returned from injury.

115 Passing Yards

Jalen Hurts ended the day on Sunday as the QB4 on the week, despite completing just 12 passes for 115 yards and 1 INT. His real fantasy value comes from his legs – he had 44 yards on the ground and found the end zone twice, netting him a cool 26 fantasy points. His passing yards were less than half of all of the top 12 QBs this week, except for Aaron Rodgers, who didn’t need to throw the ball much to continue owning the Bears. But let’s go back to Hurts – this week was his 6^th consecutive game this season (i.e.. all of them) where he has scored at least 21 fantasy points. He is the QB4 on the year, and is just about 10 points behind the leader, Patrick Mahomes. Hurts may continue to turn in lackluster passing performances over and over again, but his fantasy value is undeniable and he’s clearly a must-start every week. He has matchups coming up against Detroit and both New York teams before his bye in Week 14, so there are some good matchups coming up for the player with the highest floor in all of fantasy football.

9 Kickers in Double Digits

This week, 9 kickers scored double-digit fantasy points, and only 3 of them were owned in the drinkfive.com fantasy league. Leading the way was Matthew Wright, owned in just 1% of Fleaflicker leagues. Wright broke a streak of 5 consecutive games for the Jaguars in which they did not convert a FG. Wright went 3/3 on field goals in the game in London, including a 54-yard masterpiece that had Kevin Harlan fooled and resulted in a really great call. Wright also kicked the game winner as time expired, snapping the Jaguars losing streak at 20 games – a streak which started following Week 1 of last year, which was their only win of the season. Despite it being a lower week for kicker scoring – nobody made more than 3 field goals in any game so far in Week 6, there was only 1 missed extra point across the league, a far cry from the 13 extra points that were missed last week.

11 Points Allowed

Congrats to the top D/ST of the week, the Los Angeles Rams. Their 16 points on the week increased their season total points by 66%, showing that you really just need to be playing matchups when it comes to selecting a D/ST. The Rams managed to take the top spot by just beating the snot out of the Giants with 3 INTs, 4 sacks and 1 fumble recovery to go with just 11 points allowed. In fact, the 38-11 victory completed an NFL scorigami. If you haven’t heard of a scorigami, check it out here. This is the first of the season, which is probably rare since there were 12 all of last season. I suppose fewer and fewer each year is the nature of a scorigami. The last one we had was the Steelers-Browns playoff game last year which ended 48-37. Can you tell I quickly ran out of things to say about the Rams yesterday? Their beatdown of the Giants was about as ho-hum as it gets.

30 WRs with 10+ Points

Week 5 saw a solid 30 wide receivers put up at least 10 fantasy points, which is just a middle of the road total for the year. What sticks out to me is that only 5 players had at least 100 receiving yards on the day, showing that half PPR and full PPR as the new standards are here to stay for anyone that loves points in fantasy football, which is probably all of us. Previously this year, the fewest number of WRs with 100+ receiving yards was 10, which happened twice. Leading the way last week was CeeDee Lamb with 149 yards – 56 of those yards came on the Cowboys final drive which took place in OT, capped off by Lamb’s 35-yard TD reception to walk-off the game. Honorable mention for a WR stat monster goes to Ja’Marr Chase, who is 30^th among WRs with only 27 receptions, but 4^th overall in receiving yards with 553. He has 19 fewer receptions than the 3 men ahead of him, all of whom are sitting on 46 receptions for the year.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

162.1 Total Fantasy Points

Derrick Henry didn’t score another 3 TDs this week, but he didn’t need to in order to finish the week as the highest scoring player in all of fantasy football for the 2021 season. Henry, who scored just 15.4 points this week, actually brought his average down to 27 points per game, in part because he failed to find the end zone. He did manage to throw a touchdown, however, salvaging his worst fantasy performance since Week 1 of this season. Speaking of bad fantasy performances, Patrick Mahomes put up his second worst fantasy game ever (Week 7 of 2019 was the only game worse). This poor performance left just enough of a window for Henry to pass Mahomes for the season-long lead. The last time a non-QB finished with the most fantasy points at the end of a season was Todd Gurley in 2017, who manage to do that in only 15 games.

201 Receiving Yards

This week, Ja’Marr Chase announced his presence as not only an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate (he was already in the lead for that) but as one of the best wide receivers in the game right now. Chase is now the WR2 through 7 games on the season, finished just behind Cooper Kupp for both the season and Week 7-point totals. Chase had a career high 201 receiving yards, helped along by an 82-yard touchdown reception – a short pass where he got the ball over the middle and did the rest of the work himself. This was Chase’s second game with 10 targets. He leads the league with 21.5 yards per reception and is second only to Kupp in season long yardage. Chase is doing the most with what he’s given. He has only 35 receptions on the whole season (on pace for 85 for the year, though I would bet on the over for that). By contrast, Kupp has more receptions (56) than Chase even has targets (51). Chase’s 3.6 points per touch is an amazing number, one that is unmatched by anyone in the league so far.

28.54 Fantasy Points

The best free agent of the week, at least in the drinkfive.com “experts” league, is Tua Tagovailoa, owned in 71% of Fleaflicker leagues, but not this one. Tua is not only the best free agent of the week, he’s the best QB of the week, out of all players. Tua just edges out his 2020 draft mate, Joe Burrow, who led his team to a very impressive 41-17 victory over the Ravens. Tue finishes as the 4^th highest scoring player on the week, before the two WRs mentioned above and the man who gave away Tom Brady’s 600^th touchdown catch. Thankfully for Mike Evans, the fan gave it back, so he doesn’t have to get the cold shoulder from Brady for the rest of the season. Tua had a rough start to this season, but after a few weeks off for injury, he has returned and played very well at QB. In 2 games he has 6 touchdowns (and 3 picks, yuck). He has also run for over 20 yards in each game, and is averaging 25.45 points per game during this stretch. With games against Houston, New York Jets, and Carolina coming up, he’s a great streaming option to keep around for a while.

89.47% Catch Rate

The highest catch rate in the NFL belongs to Bengals TE C.J. Uzomah, who has caught 17 of his 19 targets so far this season (Pat Freiermuth leads the league at 90%). Uzomah has had quite the up-and-down season. He’s currently the TE10 on the year with 64.1 total fantasy points, however, 46.6 of those points (almost 73% of his total points) came in weeks 4 and 7. He finished as the TE1 in week 4 and currently leads the field in week 7 with no looming threats to overtake him on Monday night. Despite his fantasy high points, he’s a very tough player to start. He has only one week with more than 3 targets, and that was just 6 in week 4. Despite this, he’s managed to find the end zone 5 times in the last 4 games, so perhaps it’s time to find a way to insert him into your lineup, and maybe more than just a streaming option. Oh yea, and if you’re wondering, Rondale Moore has the highest catch percentage among wide receivers at 83.87%. Jaylen Waddle has the highest catch percentage among WRs with more than 50 targets with 77.19%.

602 Career Touchdowns

There was one thing happening this week that I just had to mention, and no, it’s not National Tight Ends Day. Raise your hand if you’re sick of hearing about that. No, this week Tom Brady threw his 600^th touchdown in the regular season. And his 599^th, and numbers 601 and 602 if we’re counting them all. Of course, we are. This season, Brady is leading the league with 21 passing touchdowns. Matthew Stafford is in 2^nd with 19. Brady also has a rushing touchdown, for good measure. He has 26 of those in his career. In addition, the ageless one is leading the league in completions, passing attempts, passing yards, and yards per game. Pretty good for anyone, unprecedented for a 44-year-old in the NFL. The yards per game mark is his second highest in his entire career, and he’s ahead of his career averages in completion percentage, interception percentage, and QB rating. I suppose if you’re going to play so many years in the NFL, you might as well make them count instead of just playing out the streak. In a league with so much great young QB talent, Brady might still be the best one each and every Sunday that he steps on the field. And I don’t mean that as an overall picture, I mean that right freaking now, he’s the best QB in football.