Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
14 Fantasy Points
Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.
7 Wins in a Row
The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season). Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.
27 Carries
A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore. The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?
1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards
The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards. The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.
604 Points
The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.
Houston Texans
What’s changed since last year? The Texans didn’t sign any offensive players of note in free agency, they fired their GM Brian Gaine, Lamar Miller tore his ACL and MCL in the preseason, and they acquired RB Duke Johnson from the Browns.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? There has been quite a bit of noise about 2nd year WR Keke Coutee breaking out this year after a good showing in some games last year, but he has had trouble staying healthy and it looks like he won’t play early in the season after an ankle injury in early August. 4th year WR Will Fuller has also had trouble staying healthy and went down with an ACL last year but appears to be fully recovered now and is my choice for a breakout. He did have 7 TDs in 2017 but has maxed out at only 635 yards so I think this year may be his best yet.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Duke Johnson (ADP79, RB34) is a good example of a sleeper pick right now, although his ADP has risen substantially since Lamar Miller suffered a season-ending knee injury. Especially in PPR leagues, Johnson could end up outperforming his ADP by miles if the Texans don’t end up picking up another RB to start. Either way, he’ll have the opportunity to succeed in this offense.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Deshaun Watson (ADP 40, QB2) is routinely taken off draft boards quickly, DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 5, WR1) is an easy decision to make here. Hopkins is an otherworldly talent who will almost certainly catch 100+ passes for 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs. Boom.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? 2nd year TE Jordan Thomas (ADP 373, TE41) could find his way into being a TE2 on a team that craves some more options in the passing game, and UDFA RB Damarea Crockett (ADP 303, RB78) figures to find a way into the lineup throughout the year barring some major moves from the Texans. Duke Johnson has not missed an NFL game, however, so Crockett’s path to playing time probably doesn’t happen that way.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Of note, the Texans picked TE Kahale Warring (3rd round, #86 overall) for depth at the position – analysis reveals that Warring needs a lot of help with his blocking but is a skilled route runner. He will likely not provide a fantasy impact in 2019. [Editor's Note: Warring is now a candidate for IR, looks like he certainly won't be making any immediate impact in fantasy]
Indianapolis Colts
What’s changed since last year? #1 with a bullet, Andrew Luck has retired, leaving most NFL analysts, fans, players, and coaches in shock. Yowza. This clearly impacts the Colts’ offense negatively in general and we’ll likely see ripples of this in fantasy for years to come. They added Devin Funchess after losing Dontrelle Inman and Ryan Grant and added Spencer Ware.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? 2nd year WR Deon Cain (ADP 342, WR114) has been killing it in the preseason, so let’s go with him. He tore his ACL in early August last year which is why his name may have faded from memory, but he’ll be a week 1 starter for the Colts and has been showing great chemistry with Jacoby Brissett (who is now the starting QB there). Roll the dice on this kid in a deep draft, why not?
Who is a sleeper you can draft? At this point almost all the Colts are still being drafted above their ADP when you factor in the effects of Luck’s retirement. Perhaps Nyheim Hines (ADP 185, RB58) could help out as a safety valve for the new QB and improve on the yardage (425) and TD (2) numbers he had last year...
What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Marlon Mack (ADP 38, RB21) is being drafted earlier than T.Y. Hilton (ADP 41, WR15), Hilton has more value and a higher upside (5 1000+ yard receiving seasons while Mack has not yet reached 1000 yards rushing). I’m calling Hilton the stud on this team, and the Colts may be playing from behind more than they have the lead this season. Chuck it, Jacoby!
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? While everyone is drafting Eric Ebron (ADP 90, TE8) as a top 10 TE, they may be forgetting about Jack Doyle (ADP 203, TE21) a little too soon. Doyle finished the 2017 season as the TE8, with 80 receptions, without Andrew Luck. He didn’t participate in the offseason program at all, due to hip/kidney surgeries, but is now recovered and chomping at the bit to provide some fantasy production to your team. Could he cause Ebron to bust in 2019? Maybe.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Parris Campbell (ADP 205, WR70) has missed the last 15 team practices in training camp and preseason due to a lingering hamstring injury. He may play against the Bengals this week, but it looks like he’ll start out the year as the WR4 on the Colts, behind Hilton, Funchess, and Cain. He’s still very much a weapon that the Colts will use but is not likely to be relevant this year without a top QB at the helm.
Tennessee Titans
What’s changed since last year? Congrats on the new gig as backup QB in Nashville, Ryan Tannehill! The Titans also added WR Adam Humphries and drafted rookie WR A.J. Brown.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? So, the narrative says that 3rd year WR Corey Davis (ADP 94, WR37) should be the breakout player on the Titans this year. And I agree, he should. 2018 basically doubled his stats from the previous year, and at 65 receptions for 891 yards, he doesn’t have far to go to eclipse that 1000 mark. The trouble is really the offense in general but he is currently on a trajectory to be an every week fantasy starter.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Without hesitation, Delanie Walker (ADP 114, TE11). True, he’s getting older (35 as of August 12th, happy birthday Delanie!), but he strung together 4 straight seasons of 100+ targets and 800+ yards before he was injured in game 1 of 2018. He’s still the starting TE of the Titans and still Mariota’s favorite redzone target. His ADP has been rising recently but he has been no worse than the TE 5 over the past three years. This guy could help you win your league at his current valuation. Former Patriots’ RB Dion Lewis (ADP 129, RB46) is also a possible sleeper, if incumbent starter Derrick Henry is unable to live up to expectations.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? Derrick Henry (ADP 36, RB19) is as close as we get to a stud on the Titans now (not counting Walker since consensus is lower on him after coming back from injury), but he’s not quite there. Last year, Henry rushed for 1000+ yards and 12 TDs though – so if he can match those numbers this season, he’ll be drafted as a stud RB in 2020. What are the odds?
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Adam Humphries (ADP 224, WR74) is not currently being drafted in most leagues, and has been getting some buzz in the preseason, even receiving more targets than Davis in the preseason. Last year he had 76 receptions for 816 yards and 5 TDs playing slot receivers for the Bucs. That said – there may not be enough targets to spread around in Tennessee - maybe he just signed with the Titans for the $36 million and a cool place to Netflix and chill.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The only rookie that the Titans took on the offensive side of the ball during the 2019 draft was WR A.J. Brown (ADP 207, WR71). He was drafted #51 overall in the 2nd round and has all the pieces to be a #1 WR on any NFL team. Unfortunately, he was drafted by the Titans. In Tennessee, Brown has to deal with unpredictable QB play, a struggling offensive line, a middling number of targets available for the playmakers, and a depth chart that currently has both Davis and Walker in front of him as primary options in the passing game. From all the tape I’ve seen of him, it’s likely that Brown will be great – but it’s not likely that it’s in 2019.
Jacksonville Jaguars
[Editor's Note: Jaguars information will be available shortly]
Wow! What an opening NFL weekend! Start the week with Tom Brady ripping out Dak's heart and close it with a wild Monday night where the Raiders almost blew a game in the biggest way I've seen since the famous Herm Edwards play that led to the invention of kneeling. Between all of that, we had two Super Bowl favorites in the Bills and Packers getting handled. The Bills alone knocked 111 from the pool and with all the other losers brought the survivors down to 1210 from the starting 1604 entrants. But Alas, I got both of mine through.
This week my top pick goes to a team that couldn't win last week, but who can blame them when you're up against Mahomes. In this case, being close is enough for me to think the Cleveland Browns can handle the Houston Texans at home. They are the biggest favorites of the week at -12.5 and should make for a safe pick. I can't pretend like I actually watched any of the Jags/Texans game but I did watch the whole Chiefs/Browns game and what I saw was that Cleveland will be a playoff team again. The Texans are in rebuild mode and will be finishing at or near the bottom of the worst division in football.
For the second pick, I'm going with the other -12.5 favorite Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As good as Tom Brady looked in Week 1, this pick is all about Atlanta. I quickly remembered how bad they were last season after their performance against the Eagles and they won't be better this year. The Packers should be another popular pick this week, but I'm staying away until Rodgers proves he's not a mole trying to cost the team games.
My strategy early on in these pools is to keep it simple as long as you can and worry about making tough picks when the time comes. Saving teams always seems to bite you, just ask all the people that busted on the Jags in week 1 trying to be clever.
Cheers! Drink Five
Entry #1 |
Entry #2 |
Rams |
Buccaneers |
Buccaneers |
Browns |
Last week went down just like it's supposed to. The Colts scored a touchdown in the first quarter, which would have been enough to beat the Texans. But, they decided to put up a bunch more on their way to a 31-3 shellacking. If you went with me, and the majority, you were sipping champagne by halftime!
Gonna keep it short and sweet this week. The Arizona Cardinals are the pick against our familiar opponent, the Houston Texans. Starting to notice a theme in my picks the last 3 weeks. Not much to explain here. The Cardinals are yet to lose and are favored by more than 2 touchdowns in this game at home. This also is the best spot for the Cardinals as I look through the remainder of their schedule, but I guess you could say that about most teams on their Texans week. So this week just sit back and relax, tougher weeks are down the road.
Cheers! Drink Five!
ENTRY #1 | ENTRY #2 |
RAMS | BUCCANEERS |
BUCCANEERS | BROWNS |
BRONCOS | CARDINALS |
BILLS | TITANS |
PATRIOTS | |
COLTS | |
CARDINALS |