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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, dreadful 7-month wait for NFL games that matter to return, but we’ve made it! We’re mere hours away from week 1, which means it’s time once again to set your fantasy lineups, and that means I’m back to help you figure out what to do with your rookies.

If you’re new to the Rookie Report, here’s how it works: Each week I’ll look at the upcoming matchup for all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what to do with them for that week. I’ll give you some quick-hitting info about guys you already know you should start or sit, and I’ll dig a little deeper on the borderline rookies to give you some info to help you make that decision for the week. I’ll also include some deep league sleepers, stashes for the future, and cheap DFS plays that I like among rookies for those of you who are in deeper leagues or like to play DFS.

This year’s rookie class is an interesting one. There was only 1 QB taken before round 3 of the NFL draft and zero rookie QBs slated to start in week 1, but there were an absurd 13 wide receivers taken in the first two rounds and a number of other intriguing guys drafted in rounds 3 & 4. I have a feeling a lot of this year’s Rookie Report will be devoted to the wide receiver class.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

NONE – There are no rookies that should be an auto-start in week 1 for your lineups. The 2 guys who should be the safest based on draft capital and expected role are Drake London and Breece Hall. Both face tough week 1 matchups and have question marks that make them less than a sure thing for the openers.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): Pierce has been one of the most polarizing players this preseason after winning the Texans’ RB1 job out of camp as a 4^th-round draft pick. The debate has been about whether he’s actually a good starting RB, or if he was just the best of a lackluster group of options in Houston. Regardless of the answer to that question, we know he’s going to get rushing volume. The Texans changed coaches this offseason, but they’re likely to remain conservative as an offense. Houston passed the ball at just the 19^th highest rate last year despite finishing 4-13 and constantly playing from behind. That means they’re willing to run when they probably shouldn’t. I don’t expect Pierce to stay in the game on passing downs. That job should fall to Rex Burkhead, but that doesn’t mean Pierce can’t pull in a few receptions to go along with probably 15+ carries in week 1. The Colts’ run defense was stingy in 2021, ranking 3^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, but the switch from DC Matt Eberflus to Gus Bradley could mean some regression is coming. Bradley runs a base cover-3 defense and doesn’t do a ton of blitzing. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference Bradley’s defenses have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL in each of the last 3 years (and 3^rd-lowest rate in 2018). It’s caused his defenses to traditionally be pretty good against the pass, but bad against the run. Bradley’s defenses have ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed and rushing TDs allowed in each of the last 3 seasons, and his Raiders’ defense last year allowed the 4^th-most running back points per game. If you’re considering Pierce for a start in week 1, I’d feel good about slotting him in the lineup.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Olave enters week 1 looking like a clear starter for the Saints opposite Michael Thomas with Jarvis Landry in the slot. Thomas has been battling a hamstring injury, and while he looks likely to play it’s easy to wonder if it hampers his performance in the opener. The Falcons allowed the 2^nd-most fantasy points in the league last year to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS). They did add Casey Heyward Jr. at corner to help shore up that issue, but I still like Olave to get loose for a handful of catches in a strong debut performance. Part of the problem for the Falcons is that they generated QB pressure at the lowest rate in the league last year, and they did little to address the issue in the offseason. You can’t ask your corners to cover forever. Something in the range of 5-75 with a possible TD would be a nice finish for Olave in the opener.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Depending on who you ask, Burks’ training camp and preseason ranged anywhere from okay to pretty bad, to a complete dumpster fire. It started with reports that his conditioning was an issue early in camp. Then came the preseason games where Burks played into the 4^th quarter in each of the first two contests and didn’t produce much with his opportunities. It became clear that he wasn’t working with the starters yet, which is unexpected for a guy who was drafted in the top 20 picks by a team that just traded away their WR1. At the end of the day, I bought into the camp reports a bit and was expecting a slow start to the season for Burks. Then I saw his week 1 matchup. The Giants are shaky at corner after releasing James Bradberry as a cap casualty in the offseason, and new DC Wink Martindale loves to play aggressive defense with a lot of blitzing and asking his CBs to play man coverage. I expect the Titans to combat this by trying to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space quickly, and they don’t have a more dynamic playmaker than Burks. Much like Derrick Henry (although not to the same degree), Burks is a player you don’t want to tackle when he’s running full speed in the open field. I like his chances of breaking a big play or two against this vulnerable defense. Burks is listed as the team’s WR2 on their first depth chart released for the regular season.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Pickens will be a starter in 3-wide sets for the Steelers in week 1, and with Diontae Johnson battling a shoulder injury he could make a splash in his debut against the defending AFC champs. Mike Tomlin hasn’t expressed any concern about Diontae being able to play in the opener, but Johnson may be out there as more of a decoy than a featured target. Johnson should draw shadow coverage from Chidobe Awuzie, who graded as PFF’s 18^th-best cover corner in 2021. Chase Claypool should draw Mike Hilton in the slot (PFF’s 5^th best slot cover corner in ’21). That leaves oft picked on Eli Apple as Pickens’ week one adversary. I like George’s chances to lead the Steelers in receiving yards in week 1, and he looks like a guy who will be much more productive as a pro than he was in college. 60+ yards and a possible TD feels like a likely outcome for Pickens in the opener. 

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Dotson won the starting WR job opposite Terry McLaurin in camp, and he gets a soft landing for his NFL debut. The Jaguars allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game last season and ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Shaquill Griffin is likely to follow Terry McLaurin around. That leaves youngster Tyson Campbell to match up with Dotson. With Washington likely missing starting TE Logan Thomas, Dotson should see a healthy number of targets come his way in a game where Carson Wentz should be motivated to exorcise some demons. It was his performance in an embarrassing loss in the week 18 meeting with the Jaguars that changed the trajectory of Wentz’s career. That loss was the final nail in his coffin in Indy, the second stop that he’s been booted from in as many years. This year may be his last chance to prove he can be someone’s franchise QB and putting it on the Jaguars would be a good way to start. If Wentz makes good on that, Dotson will be a primary beneficiary.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): Hall seemed like a slam dunk to open the season as the Jets' workhorse running back when he was drafted in April, but he somehow failed to beat out Michael Carter for the starting job in training camp. It appears Hall will open the season in a committee akin to the one we saw between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon last season in Denver. It’s not a great development if you drafted Hall to be a starting running back, especially in a week where he faces a Ravens’ defense that ranked 4^th in run defense DVOA stat last season. This is the kind of matchup where I’d be calling him a floor RB2 if he were the workhorse. Instead, he’s a fringe flex play that doesn’t appear to have a ton of ceiling.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): White is only a borderline option in the deepest of PPR leagues. The Bucs leaned heavily on Leonard Fournette in 2021, and while they’re likely to do that again in ’22, they probably want to lighten the load at least a little after he missed crucial time down the stretch with injury last season. They used a 3^rd round pick on White and he’s already worked his way up to #2 on the depth chart behind Lenny. I expect the workload split here to look something like we’ve seen with Dallas where Fournette is in the Zeke Elliott role and White is Tony Pollard. He’ll mix in for some change of pace work and some receiving opportunities, but Lenny is the workhorse. White is a great stash in case his role is bigger than expected or anything happens to Fournette, but he isn’t a great play in week 1 against a Dallas defense that allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game last season.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. vs. NO): London returns from a knee injury in time for week 1, but he’s had very limited practice time this preseason. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps in the opener, and many of the snaps he does play should be matched up with Saints’ top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore had a 76.4 PFF coverage grade and allowed fewer than 8 yards per target into his coverage in 2021. I wouldn’t count on more than 5-6 targets for the rookie in the opener, which may not get London to 50+ yards against Lattimore.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 1: @Hou.): Pierce draws a favorable matchup in his first time out against a Houston defense that allowed the 5^th-most fantasy points last year to wide receivers lined up out wide (Parris Campbell figures to play mostly in the slot), but this shapes up as a game where the Colts will have no problem relying on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman to do most of the heavy lifting. Pittman is the clear WR1 in this offense, and the Texans won’t have an answer for him when the Colts need to throw, and they shouldn’t need to throw a ton. Pierce could see a few targets come his way, but this should be a low passing volume week for the Colts, and the scraps that go to Pierce are unlikely to amount to a strong fantasy game.  

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal): The Jets have listed Wilson as a backup on the depth chart behind Braxton Berrios ahead of the opener, but I have a hunch Wilson will be on the field a fair amount in week 1. They didn’t draft him in the first round to not have a role, and the Jets are going to be playing from behind as a touchdown underdog at home. The Ravens are a much tougher pass defense than last year’s #30 rank in pass defense DVOA would indicate. Their secondary was decimated by injuries last year and appears back to full health to start 2022. The return of Marcus Peters and the addition of Kyle Fuller make this a defense I don’t want to use Wilson against unless I KNOW he’s playing a full complement of snaps. We don’t know that for week 1.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. TB): Michael Gallup’s status remains in doubt for week 1, and Tampa Bay’s stout defensive front had teams throwing early and often against them last season since they couldn’t run the ball with any success. Dak Prescott attempted a whopping 58 passes against the Bucs in week 1 last year as Zeke Elliott struggled to just 33 rushing yards. There’s a pretty good possibility Dallas employs a similar strategy this time around, and that kind of passing volume makes Tolbert intriguing. The problem is that he’s failed to separate himself from guys like Noah Brown, Semi Fehoko, and KaVontae Turpin in camp. It’s likely all 4 guys play some snaps in the opener if Gallup is out, and we could even see Tony Pollard get some slot snaps as well after he did some work there in camp. The passing game will run through CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs in the opener, and you’re likely grasping at straws if you start any of their other receivers in week 1.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): For deeper TE-premium leagues, Bellinger may be on your radar for week 1 after winning the starting tight end job in New York. I’d steer clear for the opener. The Titans allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game last season, and we all know about the likelihood of early success for rookie tight ends. You can likely find a better option for week 1.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

All of the rookie QBs: None of the rookie signal callers are slated to start in week 1, and if the draft is any indication, I’d be pessimistic about the entire class. 2022 was the 6^th time since 1990 that no QB was taken in the top-15 picks of the NFL draft. The first QBs off the board in those other 5 drafts have a combined total of one top-12 fantasy season between them (by Chad Pennington). That bodes poorly for Kenny Pickett, and none of the other rookie QBs this year garnered better than a 3^rd-round draft pick.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 1: @LAR): Cook enters week 1 in a messy 3-way committee with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and he faces a defense that allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game last season and remains one of the most talented defensive units in the NFL. Cook’s likely to see a handful of touches in week 1, but he’s going to be hard to trust as anything more than an upside play in DFS contests. He costs the minimum for the full slate on DraftKings, and $2,800 for showdown contests.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Walker has been battling a hernia injury (the non-sports variety) throughout camp. It’s still up in the air whether he’ll be able to suit up in week 1, but the missed time has him comfortably behind Rashaad Penny on the depth chart to start the season. Anything beyond 6-8 touches in week one for KW3 would be a bonus.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. NO): Allgeier enters the season 3^rd on the Falcons RB depth chart behind Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams, and the Falcons face a New Orleans defense that ranked 1^st in run defense DVOA and allowed the 2^nd fewest RB points per game last season. There’s no reason to fire him up in the opener.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): White’s role for the early part of the season Looks to be mostly as a change of pace back on early downs behind Josh Jacobs while Ameer Abdullah handles the passing down work. That’s not a very useful role for fantasy, even against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 30^th in run defense DVOA a season ago.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Ebner warrants watching in week 1 as a potential waiver pick-up for PPR leagues. There’s been a lot of buzz this offseason about his ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but this week is not the one to try him out in lineups. The 49ers allowed the 9^th-fewest RB receiving yards per game last season and we still don’t know just how big of a role Ebner will play in this offense. Take a wait-and-see approach with him in the early weeks.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): Pacheco has been one of the biggest darlings of training camp. There’s been speculation that he’s going to play a meaningful role in the Chiefs offense after making the team as a 7^th-round draft pick, but you’d be best off practicing patience with him for your lineups. Pacheco looks to work as the change of pace back for both early-down RB Clyde Edwards Helaire and 3^rd down back Jerick McKinnon to start the season. The Cardinals should be significantly worse on defense than the unit that allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game last year, but Pacheco’s limited role in a 3-headed backfield makes him a guy to avoid this week.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Spiller seems to have gotten over a preseason ankle injury in time for week 1, but he’s fallen behind both Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel for the RB2 job and isn’t likely to have a prominent role in week 1. The Raiders aren’t a good defense – they allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game last season, but Spiller won’t see enough work for that to matter.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The Rams backfield rotation seems a little unsettled still, but I don’t envision a big role for Williams behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson to start the season. Williams’ biggest upside comes from his prowess as a receiver. He hauled in 35+ catches in each of the last two seasons at Notre Dame, but he enters an offense that doesn’t really target the backs in the passing game. The Rams have ranked dead last in the NFL in RB target share in each of the last two seasons, and although OC Kevin O’Connell departed to take the Vikings head coaching job, the Rams replaced him with Liam Coen who coached under O’Connell with the Rams in 2020. Coen spent 2021 as the Kentucky offensive coordinator, and the Wildcats’ running backs accounted for less than 10% of the team’s total receptions. Williams is a guy to monitor for later in the season, but he shouldn’t be near your week 1 lineup.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 1: @Car.): There’s a good chance that Bell opens the season as the Browns’ WR3, but I don’t expect there to be a lot of fantasy production to go around for the pass catchers with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Browns will likely use a lot of 2-TE and 2-RB looks and probably won’t have 3 WRs on the field as much as most teams. Bell should be rostered in deeper PPR leagues, but he’s not a good option in week 1, especially against a Carolina defense that allowed the 3^rd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs lined up in the slot last season, per SIS.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): The Chiefs look likely to enter the season with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman starting in 3-WR sets. Moore even played behind Justin Watson in the Chiefs' final preseason game. The rookie is going to work himself into a bigger role at some point this season, but he shouldn’t be near your lineup for week 1.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Jones makes his NFL debut against a defense that was just in the middle of the pack last year against the pass (15^th in pass defense DVOA), but he joins an offense with a messy WR depth chart after Darnell Mooney. The Bears figure to be run-heavy, with the passing offense running through Mooney and TE Cole Kmet. None of the other Chicago receivers should be in your week 1 lineup. Jones looks to be the WR4 on the depth chart at this point behind Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Byron Pringle, but that could change as the season moves along. Monitor Jones from afar.

WR Kyle Phillips, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Phillips impressed early in camp and seemed to have a real chance to enter the season as the Titans starting slot WR at one point, but with Treylon Burks putting his early camp struggles behind him Phillips seems to be playing behind Robert Woods, Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on the depth chart. Even if he had earned the WR3 role, only 9 teams spent a lower % of their plays in 11 personnel than the Titans did last year. Their offense runs through Derrick Henry, and they typically have a narrow passing target tree. Phillips doesn’t have much upside in the opener even in a good matchup with the Giants.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): I had some hope for Turner to make my sleeper list this week with starting tight end Logan Thomas unlikely to suit up for week 1 and backup John Bates banged up as well, but Bates was able to get in a full practice on Tuesday. He’ll likely be ready to go for the opener, relegating Turner to the bench. Turner posted 62 receptions at 10 TDs at Nevada last season, and the Jaguars ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA last season. If for some reason Bates winds up missing this game, Turner is an intriguing DFS option that costs the minimum on DraftKings.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Otton had some hype early in the offseason when Gronk retired once again, but the Bucs also added Kyle Rudolph in free agency and Otton has failed to beat out Rudolph or returning backup Cam Brate. He’ll open the season as Tampa’s TE3.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Warren’s signing as a UDFA went largely unnoticed in the spring but entering the season he’s the primary backup for Najee Harris. He isn’t a guy you should be plugging into any lineups, but he’s a great stash in deeper leagues in case anything happens to Najee. The Steelers’ backs other than Harris only handled 60 combined touches last year, but they’re likely to run more with Mitch Trubisky at QB, and Harris’ touches were close to maxed out in 2021. Pittsburgh passed at the 2^nd-highest rate in the NFL last season.

WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 1: @Min.): The Packers said goodbye to one of the best wide receivers in football in the offseason, Davante Adams, along with another regular starter in Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They added rookies Watson and Doubs in the draft to help soften the blow of those departures. Watson has been hampered by preseason injuries but should be ready to go for the opener. Meanwhile, fourth-round pick Doubs has been the star of camp. Allen Lazard is the presumptive WR1 in this offense, but he’s not practicing this week with an ankle injury and could miss Sunday’s game. I know that sets up perfectly for another patented Sammy Watkins week 1 performance, but Watson & Doubs have a chance to play meaningful roles against a Minnesota defense that allowed the most WR fantasy points per game last year. I prefer Doubs to Watson for this week, but both players have an intriguing upside for DFS contests assuming Lazard is out. Doubs costs the minimum on DraftKings. Watson is a bit pricier at $5,100.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Robinson’s outlook for week 1 got a little murkier this week when Sterling Shepard announced he expects to be ready for week 1 after suffering a torn Achilles back in December. Wan’Dale looked like a lock to be the team’s starting slot WR to open the year, and I still think Shepard is going to be eased back in. Shepard was the starting slot WR in 2021, but Brian Daboll is a new head coach with a new offensive system, and Wan’Dale is the one who has been practicing with the ones throughout camp and the first regular season depth chart released by the team has him listed as a starter. Assuming Robinson starts, he faces a Titans’ defense that allowed the most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot in the league last year, per SIS. I think something like 5-60 is very possible in the rookie’s debut, with upside for more.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Likely got lucky this preseason when fellow rookie teammate Charlie Kolar suffered a sports hernia and opened the door for Likely to step into the TE2 role behind Mark Andrews. Andrews is as cemented as the starter as can be, but the Ravens jettisoned their WR1 Marquise Brown in the offseason, leaving not much depth behind Rashod Bateman in the receiver room. James Proche, Devin Duvernay, and Tylan Wallace all failed to establish themselves as the clear third option in the passing game, and it’s possible that Likely has done enough to show he can fill that void. The Ravens are going to get Likely on the field a lot this year, and the season-opening matchup is a great one for tight ends. The Jets ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 5^th-most TE points per game. Andrews will be the biggest beneficiary, but Isaiah Likely could see 5-7 targets himself in week 1 if he’s truly that third receiving option. Likely costs just $2,600 in the Draftkings showdown slate for this game.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. KC): Keep an eye on Zach Ertz’s status for the week 1 matchup if you’re considering McBride for a lineup. Ertz was able to return to the practice field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Wednesday. If he’s able to play, that makes McBride a bad week one option. If Ertz sits, McBride should be in line for a decent number of targets against a Kansas City defense that allowed the 10^th-most fantasy points to in-line tight ends last year. Most of McBride’s snaps at Colorado State were as an in-line tight end. He’s a phenomenal pass catcher, having logged 90 catches in 12 games last season in college. If Ertz sits, I like his chances for 5+ receptions in the opener, and he costs just $1,800 in showdown contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you get your season started on the right foot. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now 7 weeks into the NFL season, and in some ways, it feels like we know less now that when we started. Every week it feels like there are 2-3 games with stunning outcomes. Just in the last two weeks we’ve seen the Jets beat the Packers, the Falcons beat the 49ers, the Steelers and Panthers both beat the Bucs, the Bears top the Patriots, and the Seahawks beat the Chargers. It truly has been an “Any Given Sunday” kind of season so far, and that keeps things interesting each and every week. Hopefully, you’ve been able to navigate the chaos well enough to keep your fantasy teams afloat.

When it comes to the rookies, Chris Olave and George Pickens had nice games in week 7, but it’s the running backs who continue to dominate the rookie conversation. Breece Hall has ripped off 6 straight top-24 weekly finishes, Dameon Pierce has tallied 4 in a row, and Kenneth Walker III has posted 3 straight. Unfortunately, Breece Hall’s streak will end there as he suffered a torn ACL that will end his season and create a huge void here at the Rookie Report. Week 7 also saw the continued disappearances of rookie receivers Garrett Wilson and Drake London as their coaches continue to lean harder into the run game at the expense of opportunity for their star pass catchers. Alec Pierce could be the next rookie to fall victim to play-calling as Indy’s switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB could also signal a new, run-heavy approach. Finding start-able rookies beyond the obvious names is getting tougher each week. Let’s get into what it all means for week 8.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into 8…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): Watching Kenneth Walker run for Seattle is enough to make you re-think the mantra that ‘running backs don’t matter.’ He’s been electric for 3 straight weeks now since Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury. Walker isn’t going to provide much production in the passing game, but he’s averaged 118 rushing yards and scored 4 TDs in the last 3 weeks, good enough to rank as the RB6 in PPR points per game in that span despite just 2 catches for 13 yards. On paper, the Giants may look like a tougher matchup, allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, but it’s a perfect matchup for Walker. New York’s success against RBs stems from their ability to limit receiving production from the position, something Walker doesn’t get much of anyway. The Giants have allowed 8 fewer RB receptions than any other team, and the 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards for the season. They also have allowed the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. Walker could be in line for a huge game. He should be treated as a top-10 option this week at the position and feels like a bargain in DFS lineups.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Any concerns you might’ve had about Olave returning from his concussion, or having to deal with Andy Dalton at QB, were put to bed pretty quickly on Thursday night. All this kid does is produce fantasy points. In the last 5 games, he’s been active for, Olave has had a 25% or higher target share, 39% or higher air yardage share, and 13+ PPR points in all of them. He’s averaging 8.8 targets per game and draws a Vegas defense that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Olave is a locked-in WR2 for fantasy lineups this week. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Atlanta Falcons team stat line from week 7 is jarring to look at. In a game where they trailed on every single offensive snap, and by multiple scores on all but 5 offensive snaps, the Falcons attempted just 13 passes. The commitment to running the football in the face of that negative game script was mind-boggling, especially as they struggled to have success with it. Atlanta called a run play on 16 of their 19 first down plays in the game and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on those plays. On the 3 first down pass plays called, they put up 88 total yards and a touchdown. While the playcalling looks insane to us, it’s a good thing for Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier emerged from what had been a near 50/50 split with Caleb Huntley and handled two-thirds of the RB rushing attempts and played 62% of the offensive snaps. This week the Falcons get a matchup where the game script should be much more favorable as 6-point favorites against the Panthers. Carolina allows the 13^th-most RB points per game, and Cordarrelle Patterson is still at least one more week away from returning. If Allgeier continues to see a similar share of the backfield work this week he’s got high-end RB2 upside.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Robinson’s role remained largely the same with Taylor Heinicke under center in week 7. He handled more than 50% of the team's rushing attempts for the third straight game and saw his first two targets of the season. Antonio Gibson had a nice bounce-back game last weekend as well, but his playing time came at the expense of JD McKissic, not B-Rob. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, but with their QB switch to Sam Ehlinger, I wouldn’t count on them to live up to that Vegas line. Game script could end up working in Robinson’s favor. The Colts have allowed the 9th-most RB rushing yards per game and have given up 10+ points (half-PPR) to 8 running backs in their past 6 games. There’s room for both Robinson and Gibson to have a nice game again. Robinson is a floor play RB2/3 this week. You can count on reasonable rushing volume and hope for a TD.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): In case you haven’t been paying attention in recent weeks, the George Pickens breakout is happening in Pittsburgh. The rookie has at least 6 catches and 60+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games and has outproduced Diontae Johnson in every one of those 3 games. Kenny Pickett seems to favor Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth as his top options in the passing game. The matchup this weekend won’t be easy as Pickens will get to tangle with veteran corners James Bradberry and Darius Slay on the outside, but while the Eagles have shut down QBs, they haven’t been quite as dominant against wide receivers. Philly has allowed the 11^th-fewest WR points per game and has allowed 6 different receivers to score in double figures this season (half-PPR). Pittsburgh should be playing from behind and be forced to throw a lot. I think Pickens sees 7+ targets in this one, and that makes him a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Robinson has been active for just 3 games this season, and he’s already emerging as the team’s clear lead wide receiver. The rookie is quickly proving to be a PPR maven. He was targeted on 36% of his routes in limited playing time in his return from IR in week 6 and followed that up by leading the team with 8 targets in a more full-time role in week 7. The Seahawks have allowed the 12^th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers lined up in the slot this season per Sports Info Solutions, so Robinson should be in line for another reasonable PPR game. Brian Daboll has run a really creative offense so far through 7 games, so hopefully, we’ll see Wan’Dale do more than just catch short throws as the season goes on. The team traded away Kadarius Toney to Kansas City on Thursday, removing one of the few WRs on the Giants who actually has the talent to threaten Wan’Dale’s new role.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): There has been plenty of passing volume for Pickett in his starts – he’s averaged 48 pass attempts per game in his two full contests – but that volume hasn’t added up to big fantasy performances and he gets a brutal matchup this week. The Steelers are 11-point underdogs, so Pickett should be throwing a bunch again, but Philly has allowed just 1 QB all year to throw for more than 225 yards against them, and they’ve allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game. I wouldn’t view Pickett as anything more than a low-end QB2 this week, and I’d avoid him in Superflex leagues that penalize harshly for turnovers. Pickett has a 2-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio on the year, and the Eagles’ defense has 9 interceptions through 6 games.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I know most of you will disagree with this one, but I don’t feel good about Pierce this week. I know he’s been great over the last month, putting up over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his last 4 games and finding the end zone in 3 of them, but the Titans are a tough matchup for him. The Titans rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed just 3 running backs to score in double-digits against them this year – Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor. All 3 of them caught at least 5 passes in those games, a mark that Pierce has only hit once this season. Dameon still isn’t getting on the field in obvious passing situations. Since ascending to the lead back role in week 2, Pierce has yet to face a defense that ranks higher than 15^th in run defense DVOA. The rookie gets enough usage that he could make me look stupid this week, but I’d be fading him in DFS lineups, and I think you should temper expectations in season-long leagues and take a hard look at some of your bench options. Guys you normally wouldn’t play ahead of Pierce like Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, and Michael Carter are all players I like more than Pierce this week.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): White is playing just enough over the last month to give you hope that he’s going to develop some standalone value, but not quite enough that you’d feel comfortable starting him in any lineups. The rookie has played 38% or more of the offensive snaps in 3 of the last 4 games and had at least 8 opportunities (carries + targets) in all 4, but he’s averaged just 8.3 PPR points per game in that span. The Ravens have been just a middling RB defense, allowing the 16^th-most RB points per game and ranking 23^rd in run defense DVOA, but I’m not willing to count on a breakout game from White in this matchup. I think the Bucs would be better served by leaning on their proven stars – Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin – to try and right the ship for this struggling offense.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): Ingram is only worth any consideration if James Conner remains sidelined this week. Conner is practicing in a limited capacity this week but is still listed as questionable. Ingram found the end zone last week (and had a second TD overturned on replay review) and finished the week as the RB25, but he was on the field for less than 30% of the offensive snaps and was very inefficient as a runner. Ingram totaled just 14 rushing yards on 9 carries and gets a similar matchup this week (New Orleans ranks 19^th in run defense DVOA, and Minnesota ranks 21^st). If you start Ingram, you’re mostly just hoping he gets in the end zone again. Eno Benjamin is the Cardinals' back to start if Conner is out another week.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Doubs continued to play a full-time role in week 7, but he was targeted just 4 times and didn’t catch any of them in a game where he and Aaron Rodgers just weren’t connecting, and some comments by Rodgers on Pat McAfee’s show on Tuesday seemed to put most of the blame on the rookie. Rodgers didn’t call out Doubs by name, but he said, “Guys who are making too many mistakes, shouldn’t be playing. Gotta start cutting some reps. Maybe guys who aren’t playing, maybe give them a chance.” Doubs was credited with two drops in the game and had another target fall incomplete when he and his QB were clearly not on the same page about where he should be. The Packers will probably have no choice but to throw a bunch this week as double-digit underdogs in Buffalo, and the team’s WR1 Allen Lazard may miss this game, but that may not be enough to protect Doubs against losing reps. Christian Watson appears to be on track to return this week, and his skill set makes him a natural replacement for Lazard. Don’t be surprised if Doubs starts losing reps this week to Amari Rodgers and/or Samori Toure. I’d be very hesitant to trust Doubs this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Falcons’ die-hard commitment to running the ball that is so positive for Tyler Allgeier in week 8 is also killing the value of their number 1 receiver. The Falcons have thrown the ball more than 20 times just once in the last 5 weeks. London has a 27.5% target share in that span, but it’s amounted to just 2.6 receptions and 31 yards per game. The Panthers have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but if you start London against them, you do so at your own risk. He should be viewed as a WR4 bye week fill-in player for now.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Pierce’s playing time continued to climb in week 7, as he reached a season-high 96% route participation rate against the Titans, but the targets haven’t increased along with it. Instead, Parris Campbell has seen a jump in targets, with at least 11 passes coming his way in each of the last two weeks. Pierce’s targets have consistently been deeper downfield (12.0 aDOT for the season compared to 5.1 for Campbell), so he can do damage on fewer targets, but the Colts’ changing of the guard at QB could derail Pierce’s season. Matt Ryan was averaging 42 pass attempts per game for the year. With the switch to Sam Ehlinger, I’d expect that team number to be closer to 25-30 attempts per game going forward. That lower volume should be a downgrade for all the Colts’ pass-catchers. Pierce is too risky to start in Ehlinger’s first game under center, even in a good matchup against the Commanders (29^th in pass defense DVOA).

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Dotson is only borderline if he’s actually able to play this week, but I’d lean against playing him if that happens. He seems to be on the wrong side of questionable right now, but even if he plays, I’d expect him to be eased back into action after missing the last 3 games, and the Colts have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. The switch to Taylor Heinicke at QB seemed to breathe new life into the passing game last Sunday, but Dotson likely won’t see the benefits of that this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 8: @Jax.): The tight end position has been ugly beyond the top few guys this year (as it is every year), so Dulcich is worth at least some consideration if you’re hard up for a starter at the position this week, but I’d look at other options. The Jaguars have allowed just 2 tight ends to reach double-digit PPR points this year, and none to reach that mark in half-PPR. Only two tight ends have hauled in more than 3 receptions in a game against Jacksonville this season. If you get 8-10 PPR points out of Dulcich in this one you should take that with a smile on your face.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): It appeared for a brief moment that Mac Jones may have been Wally Pipp-ed on Monday night. Mac Jones was pulled from the game after struggling to move the ball and throwing a costly interception early on against the Bears, and Bailey Zappe calmly entered and led the Pats on back-to-back TD drives to give them the lead. If he kept up that strong play, he’d likely be getting the nod again this week. Instead, the rookie turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t lead the team to another point after those first two drives as the Bears throttled New England. The Pats announced on Wednesday that Mac Jones will start this weekend against the Jets. There’s always the possibility that Zappe gets inserted mid-game again if Jones struggles, but you can’t put him in a lineup in hopes that happens.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Warren still has just one game of more than 5 touches behind Najee Harris. That shouldn’t change this week in a tough matchup with the Eagles. He remains just an upside handcuff.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Cook has totaled fewer than 3 touches and 10 scrimmage yards in half of Buffalo’s games this season and has yet to reach 10 PPR points in a game. He’s gotten some extra rushing opportunities late in blowout wins against the Titans and Steelers this year, and the Bills are 10.5-point favorites, but I think Green Bay will keep this game closer than Vegas predicts. I don’t expect more than a few touches for Cook.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kyren will be ready to return from IR soon, possibly even this week, but I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie until we get a sense of what his role behind Darrell Henderson will look like. Malcolm Brown will likely serve as the RB2 this week even if Kyren is active, and the 49ers allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): Conner takes a step up the depth chart with James Robinson traded to the Jets, but that just means he’ll be active on Sundays instead of a healthy scratch. Travis Etienne remains the clear #1 back with JaMycal Hasty likely serving as the primary backup. Conner’s playing time is worth monitoring this week to see if he can leapfrog Hasty into the RB2 role. More than 70% of Hasty’s snaps this season have been on special teams, so it’s possible that’s the reason he’s been active ahead of Conner. Neither backup has standalone value right now, but it’s good to know who holds that role going forward.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): With Isaiah McKenzie back in week 6, Shakir’s route participation rate dropped from 70% (week 5) down to 20% and he was targeted just twice in the team’s win over Kansas City. His only path to a useful fantasy day this week would be a splash play or two, which the Bills are very capable of, but you can’t count on it in such limited playing time.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Bell has seen his route participation rate reach above 60% in back-to-back games now, but he has just 3 total targets in those contests to show for it. There’s a small chance he sees an uptick in opportunities with safety valve David Njoku sidelined for a couple of weeks, but the Bengals allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): You probably weren’t considering Shaheed in fantasy lineups anyway, but his NFL career has gotten off to a fun start in the last couple of weeks. He’s only been active for 2 games, and he’s played just 19 snaps and handled 2 offensive touches in those games, but those touches went for a 44-yard rushing TD and a 53-yard receiving TD. You can’t count on that kind of big play in weekly lineups, but it’s reminiscent of former Atlanta Falcons’ RB Antone Smith. Smith had a 10-game stretch in 2013 and 2014 where he handled a total of 24 offensive touches, and 8 of them went for more than 35 yards (7 of those for TDs). It would be really fun if Shaheed keeps this up.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Jones has yet to play 20% of the offensive snaps in a game for Chicago, so his only hope for fantasy relevance would be to score a TD or break off a long play. The Cowboys have allowed just 6 plays of 25+ yards in their first 7 games.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Okonkwo played a season-high 46% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in week 7, but he was targeted just once. He’s been targeted more than once just one time in 6 games. There’s no benefit to playing Okonkwo, unless it’s as a $200 dart throw in a Showdown contest.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): As I said with Alec Pierce above, I expect the switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB to be a downgrade for all Indy pass-catchers, and that includes Woods. I expect the Colts to go to a run-heavy approach, and that means even less volume to split between their 3-headed TE rotation. Woods is a bad bet this week even as a TD dart throw as the Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score and allow the 4^th-fewest TE points per game.

TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Hendershot got into the end zone in week 7, but he and Jake Ferguson combined for just 3 targets, 3 catches, and 12 yards, and neither rookie tight end was on the field for even 40% of the offensive snaps with Dalton Schultz back at close to full strength. Starting either of these guys is a hail mary no matter how good or bad of a tight end matchup they face.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): The Vikings allow the 6^th-most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 3. That’s all you need to know here.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Bellinger picked a bad time to suffer a major injury. The Seahawks have been giving up big points to tight ends this year, but the Bellinger suffered a fractured eye socket last Sunday that will keep him sidelined indefinitely (possibly for the rest of the season).

Rookies on byes this week: RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, WR Skyy Moore, KC

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Chuba Hubbard is nursing a sprained ankle and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. Blackshear would likely step into a primary passing down role if Hubbard were to sit. The running backs had a 24% target share from PJ Walker last week, and the Falcons allow the 9^th-most RB receptions per game. Game script should be negative this week with Atlanta favored by 6 points, so there’s some nice upside for Blackshear at a price tag of just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): You might not have realized it if you only looked at his 1-catch, 19-yard stat line from Monday night, but Tyquan Thornton is now a full-time player for the Patriots. The rookie played 85% of the team’s offensive snaps against the Bears despite Nelson Agholor being active, and his 5 targets were tied for 2^nd on the team. The Jets' secondary has been playing at a high level in the last few weeks as Sauce Gardner has emerged as a great young corner, but they haven’t seen a player with Thornton’s 4.2-speed. I like his chances to make a splash play in this game and think his price is right for GPP contests on DraftKings at just $3,800. He’s no more than an upside dart throw in deeper season-long leagues this week, but one that I think will pay off on Sunday.

WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): If you saw what I wrote about Romeo Doubs above, you know I think there’s an opportunity for some other WR on the Packers to step up this week. I mention Toure here only as a deep dart throw for Showdown contests (Priced at just $600 on DraftKings). I think Toure and Amari Rodgers have a chance to take some of Doubs’ reps this week, and Toure played a few more snaps than Rodgers last Sunday. Watson is practicing early in the week and seems to be in line to return from injury this week, and he could step into a big role if Allen Lazard is sidelined (Lazard is listed as ‘doubtful’). The Bills aren’t an easy matchup, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but Green Bay will have to throw, and Watson costs close to the minimum on DraftKings this week ($3,200). He’s got a low floor, but a blowup game wouldn’t be shocking here. Since the start of last season in prime-time games, Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 with 16 TDs, 0 INTs, and 260 passing yards per game. I know the Bills are a daunting defense and the Packers are in a shambles in recent weeks, but I wouldn’t count out Rodgers and the Packers for the season just yet.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Thursday players are usually not a great idea for fantasy lineups, but Otton has scored 10+ PPR points in both games where he’s played 80% or more of the offensive snaps, and Cam Brate will be sidelined again on Thursday night. Otton should be in line for 5-7 targets against a middling TE defense. The Ravens have allowed the 14^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t count on much more than 10 PPR points, but he should be right around that number again.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 8: @TB): Keep a close eye on the status of Mark Andrews for Thursday night if you’re considering using Likely anywhere, but Andrews didn’t practice all week with a knee injury and his status is very up in the air for this game. Both Likely and Josh Oliver would see significant boosts in playing time if Andrews sits, and Likely is the one of that pair who has drawn the targets this season despite playing fewer snaps. Likely has played 40 fewer snaps than Oliver this season, but drawn 10 more targets, so he’s the guy I’d expect to get the biggest boost. The Bucs have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t feel great about either backup tight end in a season-long format, but in DFS I’d much prefer to roll out Likely at $1,600 in a Showdown contest than his Bucs counterpart Cade Otton at $5,000. Otton is the better play in season-long leagues though.

UPDATE: Mark Andrews is ACTIVE for Thursday Night Football

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.