Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Like any rookie class, it behooves all of us to take a deeper look into who we're dealing with as our drafts get nearer. Basically, do your homework! Today, we'll look at the top 10 rookies, according to Dave's rankings (go to the RK section for these guys). We asked ourselves a few questions, like: What is their landing spot like? What kind of impact can they have in the early/late season? What does their spot on the depth chart currently look like? 

For an in-depth discussion, check out our first podcast of 2022, where we go over these guys in depth, as well as the top 10 ADP players.

Rank - Player Name (POS-TEAM) - Rookie ECR Rank (Difference between ours and ECR)

1 - Breece Hall (RB-NYJ) - ECR 1 (0) - Hall was selected as the 36th pick overall and the 1st RB drafted. He is a workhorse-type RB that should take over 50% of the team’s workload this year and that transition should happen quickly, if not immediately. Sorry, Michael Carter fans. Of all the RBs from this class, Hall has the clearest path to finishing as a top 10 scorer at the position. During his three years at Iowa State, Hall was a great pass catcher – in 2021 he caught 36 balls for 302 yards and 3 TDs. The Jets’ running backs had a total of 15 drops recorded in the 2021 season, more than any other group of RBs in the league. He has also been praised for his pass protection ability and should enter the NFL as an average to above average pass-blocker – not something that every starting RB can say about themselves. Again, the Jets’ RBs allowed 15 pressures last season (4 of which were sacks), both of those stats tying for 2nd most at the position. A big play RB for Iowa State, he maximizes good blocking to create huge plays (3 rushes over 70+ yards last year, for example). PFF rates the Jets’ offensive line at #13 this season and one could argue a case for them even being a little higher in the rankings – all of this proves that there will be opportunities created for Hall this year… the Jets got their guy, and he should put up RB1 numbers from early on in the season. Week 1 against the Ravens will be a test, though!

2 - Drake London (WR-ATL) - ECR 2 (0) - London was taken by the Falcons with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft, and was the first fantasy/skill player taken. Drake has a good chance to make an impact as a rookie, but he will be limited by the fact that the Falcons are rebuilding. The Falcons returning WRs had just 31 receptions from last year, all of them from Olamide Zaccheaus. This is basically an entirely new WR group. While he may slot in as the WR1 as early as the start of the season - he will still have to contend with Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson for touches. It’s certainly feasible that he leads the team in targets by the end of the year. He averaged 14.8 targets per game at USC last season. Drake and the Falcons will be limited with Marcus Mariota as their starting QB - I suspect they will go shopping for an early first round QB in the 2023 draft unless Mariota far exceeds expectations.

3 - Ken Walker III (RB-SEA) - ECR 5 (+2) - Walker was drafted with the 41st overall pick from Michigan State. With Chris Carson retiring from the NFL yesterday after undergoing neck-fusion surgery in December of last year, the RB depth chart in Seattle has Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker firmly entrenched at the top. Without Russell Wilson’s dual-threat abilities - which limited options for defenders - and considering their league-worst offensive line (according to PFF) the offense will struggle mightily. But even low scoring teams have to start some kind of offense - and whether that offense is led by Geno Smith, Drew Lock, or even Jimmy Garropolo, it will be a primarily rushing offense that coach Pete Carroll brings back onto the field in 2022. Walker led the nation last year with over 1,000 yards after contact, and could absolutely end up as the primary back in Seattle later this season, but that’s only likely to happen if Rashaad Penny is unable to maintain his position as the starter. Penny led all RBs in production over the last stretch of 2021, running for over 700 yards in the last 6 games. He has had injury concerns and issues in the past though, and signed a one-year contract earlier this year to keep him with the Seahawks but only until 2023. It’s reasonable to project, then, that whoever the starter in Seattle is will have at least low-end RB2 value based purely on volume, and that it could be Walker that ends up closing the year with that title. 

4 - Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ) - ECR 4 (0) - Garrett Wilson was the second fantasy/skill player off the board this year, going 10th overall to the Jets. Wilson came from an Ohio State team littered with elite talent - his teammate Chris Olave went right after him at 11. In New York, he will not have the same advantage that Drake London has in joining a room with barely any returning talent. The Jets will have Elijah Moore leading the way, along with other WRs who combined for over 130 receptions last year returning in 2022. Wilson will have to be brought along slowly, and is more likely to shine late in the year, if he is to shine at all in his rookie season. It remains to be seen if Zach Wilson can be an elite QB and support multiple legit fantasy threats. Fortunately for Garrett Wilson, we do know that he can put up big numbers on a team with other elite talent around him.

5 - Treylon Burks (WR-TEN) - ECR 3 (-2) - The number 18 overall pick in the draft has already been put through the ringer by sports media. I think it’s fun for them. Here are the important things to remember about Burks: 1. The Titans traded A.J. Brown because they could draft Burks as their WR1 of the future. They were already sold on him. 2. There was a lot of noise over the past several weeks about issues with asthma and conditioning, but the latest reports are already talking about big plays during practice and there have been no issues with conditioning tests leading up to training camp. Burks is a big bodied (6’2”, 220 lbs) receiver that makes both acrobatic and contested catches. He has been compared to both A.J. Brown and Mike Evans in his play style. He put up over 1100 yards and 11 TDs last year for Arkansas, and accounted for the majority of their offense. It seems likely that Burks will be selected too early in redraft leagues, however, since it may take some time for him to get up to speed with the Titans offense, the recently acquired Robert Woods is likely to suck up the majority of the targets (at least for this season), and Derrick Henry and the ground game should still continue to be the team’s focal point.

6 - Jameson Williams (WR-DET) - ECR 6 (0) - Williams was picked 12th overall by the Lions, despite having torn his ACL in the CFB Championship game back in January. He is a big play guy who had the fifth most receiving yards in the nation last year, 79 rec, 1572 yds, 15 TD. I like this landing spot in Detroit because he will be able to bolster what has developed into a solid WR group. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s emergence as a top WR threat late last year was impressive, and shows some promise for the Lions, despite having Jared Goff as their starting QB still. Goff has not shown any aptitude for throwing the deep ball. He was 27th among 33 qualifiers for yards per attempt with 6.6, and dead last among qualifiers for intended air yards per attempt at 6.4. This measures the average depth of target. The point I’m getting at here is that Jared Goff does not throw the ball down the field, so Williams will need to make his big plays by breaking away after the catch. While I like the landing spot so that he is not the sole focus of the defense when he’s on the field, the Lions really could stand to have an upgrade at QB to get the most out of their WRs. I do not expect Williams to have any early season impact due to his ACL tear - he isn’t expected to be back until October at the earliest. He is a candidate for a late season breakout, so he can be a good waiver wire pickup once he returns to action. I do not recommend drafting him in any but the very deepest redraft leagues.

7 - Chris Olave (WR-NO) - ECR 7 (0) - Olave, out of Ohio State, was chosen 11th overall by the New Orleans Saints. They basically traded picks 98, 101, and 120, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder in order to select Olave. Not a receiver that gets a lot of yards after the catch, but he has sub 4.4 40-yard dash speed, good size at 6’, 185 lbs, and has been considered to be the best pure route runner in this class of WRs. He finished his college career as the Big Ten’s 4th leading touchdown receiver of all time. Looking at the latest footage of Michael Thomas back at practice and seeing the Saints acquire veteran slot receiver Jarvis Landry earlier this year puts a damper on hopes that Olave could become a primary target in this offense for 2022. But that’s ok - he should be looked at as the WR2/3 on an unpredictable offense that could spread the ball around a lot depending on the health of Michael Thomas over the course of the season. Olave should have more of a late-season impact after we see what shakes out in New Orleans over the first half of the season, but if Thomas or Landry are not up to snuff early on, Olave will immediately slot in as a solid WR2 for the Saints.

8 - Christian Watson (WR-GB) - ECR 9 (+1) - Watson was chosen by the Packers with the 34th overall pick. This is the highest that the Packers have chosen a WR in the Aaron Rodgers era (other notables, Jordy Nelson (36), Randall Cobb (64), Davante Adams (53)). Watson comes with high expectations and a very high ceiling for his overall performance. He, unfortunately, landed on the PUP list with a still unknown injury. If he’s limited through training camp and the preseason, this will put a huge damper on his rookie season possibilities. Rodgers is not one to typically light up a rookie with targets - 38 receptions is the most any rookie has had with him. However, the Packers lost 224 targets from last year, so someone has to be there to catch the ball. As of now, there’s no indication that Watson will miss any game time, so he has the potential for action early on, but I wouldn’t count on anything significant until later in the year, if at all. He will need to pass Randall Cobb on the depth chart (a favorite of Rodgers), in order to see serious weekly fantasy relevance. This is a fantastic landing spot for dynasty purposes, however, and I think his next couple of seasons could be huge.

9 - Skyy Moore (WR-KC) - ECR 8 (-1) - Kansas City selected Moore in the 2nd round (54th pick overall) as the 13th WR off the board. With Tyreek Hill high-tailing it out of Kansas City for a big contract in Miami, the Chiefs have been gobbling up receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and already rostered Mecole Hardman (who was the 56th pick in the 2019 draft). Moore put up 94 catches for 1283 yards and 10 TDs last year at Western Michigan, and would have presumably put up bigger numbers prior to that except he was behind Seahawk receiver Dee Eskridge on the depth chart. An outside receiver with 4.41 speed, Moore is slighter of build (5’10”, 195 lbs) than the recent WR additions to the team - and profiles very similarly to Hardman. It’s hard not to see this as one more attempt to find a quick outside target for Mahomes and we will likely see Moore cannibalize snaps from Hardman as his chemistry with the long-armed QB is put to the test throughout the season. From a redraft perspective Moore is a dangerous pick that may not pan out at all this season. It is a great landing spot for a receiver, though, so who can fault the gambler for rolling the dice in hopes for a great return? Not me.

10 - Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS) - ECR 10 (0) - Dotson was chosen 16th overall by the Washington Commanders and has been getting heaps of praise so far during OTAs from his coaches. With Terry McLaurin holding out until the end of June, Dotson got lots of reps with new Commanders QB Carson Wentz. This landing spot is good for Dotson because he is in line to start opposite McLaurin in Week 1. Dotson was in the top 20 in receiving yards his senior year, putting up 91 rec for 1182 yards and scoring 12 TDs. Dotson appears to be one of the rookie WRs that is best poised to step into a fantasy relevant role early in the season. He’s on a team where he’s being inserted near the top of the depth chart, this team has a new QB - which means basically a new offense. He’s starting at the ground floor. I expect him to have growing pains like any rookie, but it’s a great spot and he’s a good candidate for early season success, unlike many other rookies.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to championship week, and honestly, you deserve a title if you survived last week’s slate of ice bowls. The weather wreaked havoc on lineups and fantasy performances last weekend as a number of key players posted duds with everything on the line. Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cordarrelle Patterson, D’Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Adam Thielen, Mark Andrews, and DeAndre Hopkins were all among the players who could’ve sabotaged your chances of advancing. You’re in luck this week as the weather appears to be much more favorable. As of right now, not one game in week 17 is projected to have winds higher than 11 mph, and only one game is projected to have a temperature below 40 degrees (Vikings at Packers). All-in-all, weather shouldn’t be much of a consideration this week unless things change drastically between now and Sunday.

The bigger concern this week is with teams that have nothing to play for – most notably the Titans and Raiders. The Titans are sitting Derrick Henry and Malik Willis this week since the only game that matters for their playoff hopes is next week against the Jaguars, and the Raiders have benched Derek Carr, likely torpedoing the values of Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Darren Waller in championship week. Make sure you know if any of your players are at risk of reduced workloads in inconsequential games and adjust accordingly.

Odds are if you’ve made it this far, you’ve had at least one rookie contribute along the way. I can’t remember another season with quite so many important fantasy rookies, and that means there are a lot of them in consideration for championship week lineups. I’m here to help you navigate what to do with them once again, and hopefully help you guide your squad to a title.y

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s jump into week 17…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Walker doesn’t always put up crooked rushing production (he’s been held below 50 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games), but he’s tallied at least 11.9 PPR points in each of his last 9 healthy games. I wouldn’t be excited to use him in DFS contests since the Jets rank 8^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and allow the 9^th-fewest RB points per game, but Walker has consistently finished as an RB2 this season, and his workload is safe. You can’t sit him in championship games unless you have safe studs ahead of him.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: @Sea.): Wilson gets Mike White back at QB this week, and that should mean good things for his production. The Seahawks have allowed just the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 21^st in pass defense DVOA. Wilson has scored 12 or more PPR points in each of the last 5 games that were not started by Zach Wilson, and he’s been targeted at least 7 times in all of them. He’s got top-12 upside every time Mike White is under center, and Seattle isn’t as daunting of a matchup as their points allowed ranking would indicate.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 17: @LV): Purdy has finished as the QB14 or better in all 3 of his starts so far this season, and he should be a fine high-end QB2 again this week. The Raiders have limited 5 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 2 total touchdowns, but only one QB all year has fallen short of 220 passing yards against them. Purdy continues to keep the 49ers’ offense on schedule and make plays in the passing game when asked to. I wouldn’t be plugging him into fantasy lineups ahead of obvious top-10 QB plays, but he’s a steady QB2 once again this week.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): Allgeier has been on a true heater over the past couple months, and he appears to have wrestled the lead back role away from Cordarrelle Patterson in this offense. He had been consistently topping 50 yards on around 10 carries per week in November, and that efficient running led to a rise in playing time in the last two games, and Allgeier has kept up his strong play. He’s tallied 253 scrimmage yards and a TD over the last two weeks on 40 touches, and this week he faces an Arizona defense that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game. The most promising development last week was that Allgeier set season-highs with 5 targets and 4 receptions in Desmond Ridder’s second start. Allgeier should be a reasonable RB2 this week on rushing upside alone, but if the passing usage continues, he could have even more untapped ceiling.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Robinson has piled up 80+ rushing yards in 4 of his past 6 games, and this week faces one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Browns rank 30^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Cleveland has allowed a 70-yard rusher in 6 of their last 7 games, and Antonio Gibson might be inactive this week, leaving a bigger share of the workload for the rookie. Robinson is a top-20 RB play this week.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Pacheco hasn’t consistently shown an exciting fantasy ceiling, scoring 15+ fantasy points just twice all year, but he’s been a rock-solid floor play with 7 straight games of 80+ scrimmage yards. Denver looked like they’ve given up on 2022 last week, surrendering 51 points to the Rams and allowing Cam Akers to bulldoze them for 118 yards and 3 scores. The Broncos rank just 22^nd in run defense DVOA, and Pacheco put up 93 scrimmage yards against them in the first meeting back in week 14. Denver did dismiss head coach Nathaniel Hackett this week, and teams often see a bump in performance in the game after firing a coach in-season, but I don’t think that bump is enough to overcome a two-touchdown point spread this week. The Chiefs should still win easily, and Pacheco should roll up another 80 yards and a possible score. He’s a floor RB2/3 again this week.

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 17: @Sea.): Knight is a risky play this week, but he’s a risky play in a good matchup. He had an abysmal performance last Thursday night against the Jaguars in the rain. He looked indecisive as a runner and finished with negative rushing yards on his 6 carries. The workload was disappointing, but Knight still handled 60% of the running back rushing attempts and should get another crack as lead back this week. The Seahawks allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, and rank 25^th in run defense DVOA. Seattle has allowed 12+ PPR points to 7 different running backs in the past 5 games. If Knight functions as the RB1 again this week, he should be a fantasy RB2. The biggest concern would be that he could lose carries after his poor performance last week. Keep tabs on team reports if you’re considering Knight this week.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 17: vs. Min.): Watson is questionable for this week with a hip injury that knocked him out of the Christmas Day game with the Dolphins, but if he’s able to play he’s got a mountain of upside. Watson has emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target in this passing game. He was targeted 8 times on Rodgers’ first 16 pass attempts last weekend before exiting with injury, and that kind of workload against a bad Vikings secondary could mean top-12 upside this week. The Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game.  Keep an eye on the injury report to see if he’s limited at all, but if it sounds like Watson will be at full strength, he should be in your lineup.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 17: @Phi.): Olave has returned to practice this week after missing last Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. The Eagles have strong perimeter cornerbacks and have allowed just the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, but Olave has been matchup-proof for much of the season. Jarvis Landry has gone on IR this week, and in the games Landry’s missed this year Olave has averaged 9 targets per game. Olave hasn’t shown WR1 upside in a while, but he should be a safe WR3 if he’s active.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Commanders are going back to Carson Wentz at QB this week, but Dotson has shown this season that he’s capable of producing no matter who is under center. The conventional wisdom this season has been that Heinicke only had eyes for Terry McLaurin, and the switch to Wentz should be a good thing for Dotson, but Dotson has done a great job of establishing himself with Heinicke in recent weeks. Dotson had earned a 26% target share from Heinicke in the last 3 games. Jahan has shown he’s a touchdown machine when healthy. He scored 4 touchdowns in the first 4 games of the season with Wentz before going on IR, and after a few weeks of getting his playing time ramped up and getting acclimated to Heinicke after his return, Dotson has rattled off 3 straight games with a score. The Browns have allowed just the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but I’d bet on Dotson keeping his hot streak alive. The team has been more pass-heavy when Carson Wentz is under center (Wentz attempted 38+ passes in each of the first 5 games of the year, and Heinicke has thrown more than 33 attempts just once), and the biggest concern with Wentz is that he crumbles when pressured. The Browns’ defense has the 6^th-lowest pressure rate in the league. Dotson is more TD-reliant than the other WRs listed in this section, but I like him as a WR3 this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): London appears to have finally turned the corner after showing some consistency over the past 3 weeks. He’s put up receiving lines of 6-95, 7-70, and 7-96 despite the team totaling fewer than 500 passing yards total in those 3 games. Arizona allows the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but they also allow the 8^th-most passing yards per game, and London has been the bulk of the Atlanta passing attack in recent weeks. I wouldn’t bank on enough volume for London to have a true blow-up game this week, but he should keep the string of solid performances going as he continues to build a rapport with Desmond Ridder.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 17: @KC): Dulcich has 8 targets in each of Russell Wilson’s last 3 starts, and the Broncos should be throwing a bunch again this week as two-TD underdogs in Kansas City. KC isn’t a great matchup for Dulcich, but the volume should have him firmly in-play as a low-end TE1. Dulcich plays from the slot as much as any tight end in the league (5^th among all tight ends in slot snaps despite not playing until week 6), but 66% of his PPR fantasy points have come when aligned as an in-line tight end according to Sports Info Solutions. The Chiefs have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends lined up in the slot than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed the fewest points in the league to in-line tight ends. Dulcich is going to have to make the most of his slot opportunities to out-perform that fringe TE1 range. He tallied 3 catches for 42 yards on 8 targets in his first meeting with the Chiefs.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Car.): White finished last week as the RB14 thanks to a 4^th quarter TD, but he took a clear back seat to Leonard Fournette in backfield usage in that game. Lenny handled 20 carries and 10 targets against the Cardinals compared to just 7 carries and 4 targets for White. There’s no guarantee that White bounces back to a more even split this week. The Bucs need to win to take control of the division race, and they’ve typically leaned more on Fournette when they need to win. The Panthers have been a solid defense against running backs this year. They’ve allowed the 15^th fewest RB points per game, but that number is skewed a bit by a 5-TD game for Joe Mixon. If we remove the Bengals game, Carolina has allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and they gave up only 58 combined yards and no TDs to Fournette and White in the first meeting with Tampa. You could potentially get away with starting White again this week, but he carries a bit more risk than usual with a tough matchup and a less certain role.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 17: @Cin.): Cook made you look smart if you took a chance on him against the Bears at frigid Soldier Field last weekend, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance here. Cook has been productive when the Bills have gone run-heavy, something they did against the Browns, Patriots and Bears, but it’s not the approach I expect them to take this week. The Bengals have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game and the 6^th-fewest RB rushing yards per game. The Bills would be wise to lean into their strengths in this one and let Josh Allen do the heavy lifting. I’d expect just a handful of carries and a few targets for Cook, which means he’ll need a TD to return value. The Bengals have coughed up just 1 running back score in their past 5 games.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Pickens has been playing well in recent weeks, putting up 50+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games, including a 3-78 line on 3 targets against these Ravens in the first meeting a few weeks ago, but he hasn’t put up more than 6 targets in a game since week 5. The Ravens have allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game this season, but only 3 receivers in the last 12 games have tallied a dozen fantasy points against them (half-PPR). All 3 of them either scored a TD or earned double-digit targets. Pickens isn’t getting to 10+ targets, so you need the TD, and the Ravens’ defense has allowed just 6 total touchdowns in their last 6 games. If you’re happy with 8-10 PPR points, Pickens is a fine option, but if you’re hoping for more, I’d probably look elsewhere.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 17: vs. Min.): This recommendation changes if Christian Watson’s hip injury keeps him from playing this week. The Vikings’ pass defense has been porous this season, and Doubs would step into a prominent role if Watson is sidelined. Doubs has been targeted 11 times in the last two games and would see an uptick there if Watson were to sit, and the Vikings allow the 7^th-highest completion % and 4^th-highest yards per completion in the league. Doubs has WR2 upside in this matchup if Watson is unable to play, but he’s a dicey WR4 if Watson suits up. Watson is practicing in a limited capacity as of Thursday.

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 17: @Phi.): Shaheed is a big play waiting to happen every week, but he’s hasn’t had more than 4 targets come his way in any game that Chris Olave has been active for, and the Eagles rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Shaheed is now the WR2 in this offense with Jarvis Landry on IR, so you could take a swing if you’re in big need of upside, but Shaheed is a boom-or-bust WR4 option. With Andy Dalton as his QB, the ‘boom’ side of that is always a longer shot than it should be.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Burks was targeted just twice in his first game played with Malik Willis at QB and didn’t record a single reception. He could see more usage this week with Josh Dobbs taking over and an expected negative game script, but it’s hard to count on any pass catchers in this offense without Ryan Tannehill at QB. The matchup this week is more favorable than you’d think given that the Cowboys rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game and have allowed 4 different receivers to catch for 100+ yards in the last 3 weeks since CB Anthony Brown went on IR. Burks is an intriguing play in DFS tournaments this week, but he shouldn’t be anywhere near your championship lineups unless you’re desperate.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Williams has big-play upside, but the Lions have been unwilling to unleash him for more than a handful of plays each week, and comments Dan Campbell made this week make me believe any changes there will be incremental. When asked about ramping up Jameson’s usage, Campbell said: “We’ll get him a couple more plays this week. He’s coming. It takes work. We just can’t throw him out there and say, ‘You’re taking 65 plays.’ There’s a trust that has to be built. But he’s working through that, and it’s good.” I touted Jameson as a potential league-winner down the stretch, but it sounds like he’s going to remain a part-time player through the remainder of the regular season. He could have some success on limited snaps against the Bears’ barely there defense (29^th in pass defense DVOA), but you can’t count on that in championship week lineups.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Car.): I made the mistake last week of betting against the Cam Brate corollary with Otton. The rule is that if Brate is active, you should sit Otton, and if Brate sits, you should fire him up. Otton has now failed to reach 10 PPR points in all 9 games that Brate has been active for. He’s 4-for-5 at hitting that mark when Brate sits. For what it’s worth, Otton did play a full-time role last week. He was in a route on 84% of Tom Brady’s dropbacks and was targeted 7 times, but he turned that into just 2 catches for 12 yards. He’s got low-end TE1 upside if he sees that kind of usage again this week, but there are less risky streaming options out there. The Panthers allow the 11^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Okonkwo has earned just 7 targets in the 3 games Ryan Tannehill didn’t play, and Dallas allows the 3^rd-fewest TE points per game. The rookie still has big-play upside, but if he gets more than just a couple catches it would be a surprise. The team announced Thursday that Josh Dobbs is going to get the start at QB, but Dobbs has just 45 career passing yards to his name. You’d be taking a huge leap of faith if you start Okonkwo in a championship game with Dobbs at QB.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Bellinger has been on the field for 97% or more of the Giants’ offensive snaps in 3 of the past 4 games, but he isn’t getting the ball enough to be useful in championship week. Any tight end that plays a full-time role is capable of putting up a fringe TE1 performance, but Bellinger hasn’t tallied more than 40 yards in any game this season, and the Colts have allowed just 1 tight end score in the last 11 games.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Pickett still hasn’t posted two total touchdowns in any game he’s started this season, and the Ravens have only allowed two QBs to score 14+ fantasy points in their last 10 games (Tom Brady and Trevor Lawrence). There isn’t a good reason to expect more from Pickett this week than what we’ve seen over the past 3 months. He remains an uninspiring QB2 option.

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): I’d be very surprised if Tua Tagovailoa ends up playing this week after going into the concussion protocol for the third time this season, so that means either Skylar Thompson or Teddy Bridgewater would get the starting nod in his place. If Thompson gets the nod, there is some upside with the weapons he’ll have at his disposal, but the Patriots are always a tough matchup against inexperienced QBs, especially in Foxboro. New England has held 3 of the 7 QBs they’ve faced at home this season below 8 fantasy points, including Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger. Thompson is nothing more than a prayer QB2 this week, even if he does get the start.

Update: Teddy Bridgewater is expected to get the start in Tua’s place

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): If you missed the news on Thursday, Josh Dobbs is expected to get the start for the Titans, not Willis. With Derrick Henry expected to sit, the team likely feels that they need someone who could have success throwing the ball, and that isn’t Willis right now. Dobbs isn’t exactly a proven option. He’s attempted just 17 passes in his 5+ year NFL career, but he flashed this past preseason with the Browns.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 17: vs. SF): The Raiders have thrown in the towel for 2022 after their loss to the Steelers last week ended their realistic playoff hopes. They’ve already announced that Derek Carr has been benched for Jarrett Stidham for the remainder of the season, and they’ll likely limit Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams a bit as well to get a look at younger players on the roster. That means Zamir White will probably set a career-high in touches this week, but I wouldn’t expect much success against a San Francisco defense that allows the fewest RB points per game. The Raiders’ offense as a whole is likely to struggle.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Warren’s spike in usage in week 15 didn’t carry over to last Sunday, and he’s now handled 8+ touches in just 4 games this season. He isn’t playing enough for you to rely on him in your championship lineup, especially against a Baltimore defense that ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Colts’ passing game is just too much of a mess to consider an inconsistent target like Pierce. Nick Foles threw for fewer than 150 yards in his first start, and Pierce has 30+ receiving yards just once in 6 games since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, and he’s put up a goose egg in 3 of them. The floor here is zero.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 17: @Atl.): McBride has played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in each of Arizona’s past 6 games, and he has just one game of 6+ PPR points to show for it. He’s a low-end TE2 whether it’s Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley under center.

Rookies who may as well be on byes: RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RBs Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris, NE, RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Kyren Williams, LAR, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Skyy Moore, KC, WR David Bell, CLE, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TE Isaiah Likely, BAL, TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL, TE James Mitchell, DET

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 17: vs. Ari.): Ridder showed progress throwing the ball last week, completing two-thirds of his attempts and accounting for more than 200 passing yards, something Marcus Mariota did just once in his final 10 starts. Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but don’t look for them to hold anything back this week. The Cardinals allow the 9^th-most QB points per game and have allowed more than 195 passing yards to every QB they’ve faced this year, including some pretty mediocre opponents – Brett Rypien, John Wolford, and Carolina Baker Mayfield. Ridder has some extra upside this week as another 200-yard passing performance feels likely. You could do worse than Ridder if you’re desperate for a QB2 this week.

RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 17: @LV): The 49ers have rattled off 8 straight wins, and everything points to them likely making it 9 straight in relatively easy fashion this week against the Raiders. Las Vegas has benched Derek Carr and will probably scale back playing time for other stars as well, which should lead to a ho-hum 49ers victory. The Niners are already a run-heavy offense, and positive game script should push them even further in that direction in this one. Christian McCaffrey has only about 63% of the team’s running back rushing yards over the past 4 games, so that leaves plenty of room for one of the back-ups to step up and be a valuable DFS play, especially if there is garbage time like I expect. Davis-Price surprisingly carried the ball 9 times last week, but Mason was dealing with a hamstring injury that limited him to just special teams work. He’s reportedly doing better this week. Pay attention to the injury updates on Mason – I’d prioritize him over TDP this week unless you hear that he’ll be limited again. The Raiders rank just 20^th in run defense DVOA, and Mason has averaged 5 yards per carry or more in each of his last 4 games where he recorded a touch. Mason costs just $2,000 on DraftKings for showdown contests.

RBs Hassan Haskins & Julius Chestnut, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): Derrick Henry is listed as doubtful for this week, and Dontrell Hilliard is on IR. That leaves Haskins and Chestnut as the top two backs for this week’s game. Neither player has the kind of outlook that you should be excited to get into a championship week lineup, but both have some upside as cheap DFS plays. Haskins costs just $3,000 and Chestnut just $1,800 for showdown contests on DraftKings. Dallas has allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game and ranks 5^th in run defense DVOA, but the Titans will continue to pound the ball with Josh Dobbs at QB. Haskins should be the primary ballcarrier on early downs, and Chestnut should handle passing-down work, but both should be involved quite a bit. The Titans are double-digit underdogs, so negative game script could mean Chestnut is the guy who plays more. At least with Dobbs there is a better chance of Chestnut catching a handful of dump-off passes than he’d have with Willis.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 17: @Det.): Last Sunday was the first time all year that Jones recorded 2 receptions in a game, so the floor here is very low, but don’t be surprised if Jones cashes in a splash play or two. Jones has served as the team’s WR3 behind Byron Pringle and Dante Pettis the last two weeks with Chase Claypool and Equanimeous St. Brown sidelined with injury. Both injured receivers got their first limited practice of the week on Thursday and are listed as questionable again. Jones showed off his deep-ball skills last week with a 44-yard catch, and this week’s opponent is especially vulnerable to deep passes. The Lions rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 10 completions of 30+ yards in their last 3 games. If ESB and Claypool are out again, Jones will get a couple opportunities to hit a big play or two, and he costs just $800 on DraftKings for showdown contests.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 17: @NYG): Kylen Granson has missed two games this season, and those have been Woods’ two best games of the year. Woods posted 8-98 on 9 targets back in week 12 against the Steelers, and then 3-43 on 5 targets last week against the Chargers in Nick Foles’ first start. Granson isn’t practicing as of Thursday, so Jelani could have strong upside against the Giants, who allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. The Colts’ overall passing game is a mess, but it can’t get much worse than what we saw from Foles last week, and it doesn’t take much from a tight end for him to have top-12 upside. Woods could be a nice streaming option if you’re desperate at tight end this week, and he costs just $2,800 on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you bring home a fantasy championship. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the final week of the NFL season. Most fantasy leagues have already wrapped up for the year, but some of you may play in leagues with week 18 title games, and after the Bills/Bengals game was cancelled last week, your league may have decided to include week 18 scores as part of your contingency plan to settle a disputed championship. I’m still here to help you figure out what to do with your rookies if you still have to set a lineup. There are also plenty of fun DFS contests and prop bets you can get involved in for week 18 as well, and I want to provide some insights into those as well.

Week 18 is typically a chaotic one for fantasy stats with a bunch of unexpected names populating the leaderboard. If you don’t believe me, here are some of last season’s top performers from week 18…

QB – Davis Mills (QB4), Drew Lock (QB9)

RB – Brandon Bolden (RB8), D’Ernest Johnson (RB9), Duke Johnson (RB10), Kenneth Gainwell (RB11), Corey Clement (RB13), Ameer Abdullah (RB15), Chris Evans (RB17), Jerick McKinnon (RB19), Patrick Taylor (RB20), KeShawn Vaughn (RB24), Demetric Felton (RB25), JaQuan Hardy (RB33)

WR – Danny Amendola (WR1), Cedrick Wilson (WR3), Jauan Jennings (WR5), Kalif Raymond (WR16), Ihmir Smith-Marsette (WR20), Tre’Quan Smith (WR22)

TE – Josiah Deguara (TE5), Brock Wright (TE10), Tyree Jackson (TE13), Zach Gentry (TE17)

The biggest key to unlocking week 18 is deciphering which teams actually care about winning. It’s critical to understand the seeding implications for any teams that are in the playoff picture this week. Know which teams can’t improve or hurt their seeding at all – the Bucs, the Giants, and possibly the Chargers if the Bengals win in the early afternoon. Know which teams could move up but need unlikely help and would get minimal benefit – the Vikings and possibly the Cowboys. And know which teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive -  the Steelers, Seahawks, Packers, Dolphins, Patriots, Titans, Jaguars and possibly the Lions can all either clinch a playoff spot or keep their playoff hopes alive with a win.

This week’s outlooks will lean heavily on team motivation, and will have more of a slant toward DFS and prop bets than usual with most regular fantasy leagues already done. There are fewer trustworthy starts among the rookies this week, but there are more fun sleepers to talk about that usual as some rookies who have been backups all year get an extended opportunity.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into the fun of week 18…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 18: vs. LAR): Walker has tallied 11.9 PPR points in each of his last 10 healthy games, and the Seahawks shouldn’t deviate from their normal game plan since they need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Rams rank 13^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have allowed 19+ PPR points to 4 different running backs in their past 4 games. KW3 has his usual outlook as a solid RB2, and Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite who should be able to run the ball. Walker comes into the week 64 yards short of 1,000 rushing yards for the season. I’d expect the Seahawks to make sure he gets there if he has a chance.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 18: vs. Ari.): Purdy has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in 5 straight games, and for 200+ yards in 4 of those games. The Cardinals have limited 3 of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 10 fantasy points, but those 3 QBs were Mac Jones, Brett Rypien, and Desmond Ridder. The Cardinals have still lost 6 straight games, and the 49ers have a Vegas implied total of 27 points this week. There are volume concerns for Purdy since the 49ers are 2-TD favorites and likely won’t have to throw a ton, but Purdy should be a good bet to finish as a solid QB2 again this week. The 49ers can still earn a playoff bye with a little help, so they’re not going to hold back.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. TB): Allgeier is one of my favorite running back plays of the week. The Bucs have nothing to play for, and the Falcons would love to go out on a high note. Allgeier has averaged just over 20 touches per game and 18.3 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks, and he enters week 18 just 100 rushing yards away from 1,000 for the season, and 123 away from the Falcons’ rookie rushing record. I expect Allgeier to get a lot of run in this game, and if he gets it going early, the Falcons are going to make an effort to get him to 100 yards and possibly that rookie record. He’s a prime option for the captain spot in showdown contests, and I’d look at betting overs on his player props this week as well. He has true top-12 upside this week.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 18: @LV): Pacheco’s streak of 7 straight games with 80+ scrimmage yards came to an end last weekend, but he should be in line for a solid performance in week 18. The Chiefs are 9-point favorites and have the highest implied point total of the week at just over 31. Kansas City needs to win this game to clinch a first round bye, so they should play it pretty close to normal. The Raiders have allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA. Pacheco’s usage near the goal line remains too inconsistent to view him as more than an RB2 option, but I like his chances of getting above 80 yards again.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 18: vs. NE): Cook set his season-highs in snap share, carries, and targets in Buffalo’s first meeting with the Patriots, and he was effective in that contest. The rookie topped 100 scrimmage yards, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills turn to him for an expanded role once again this weekend. Cook has played his 4 highest snap shares of the season in the last 4 games. There’s a low floor here but Cook has a higher ceiling this week than Isiah Pacheco.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 18: vs. Det.): Watson has been Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target for much of the second half of the season. He didn’t put up much of a stat line last weekend as he was limited by a hip injury, but he still earned a target on 29% of his routes run. He’s a week healthier this week and should play closer to a full-time role Sunday night. The matchup this week is as good as it gets for a deep threat like Watson. No team has allowed as many completed air yards per completion as the Lions this year. In fact, no team even comes close. Pass defense is the weakest part of the Lions’ football team, and Watson is the most likely Packers’ pass catcher to take advantage of that. We’ve seen him score multiple touchdowns 3 times this year, and he has a real chance to do it for a 4^th time in this one. There’s still a boom-or-bust element here, but Watson has a top-5 WR ceiling this week. He should be a staple in DFS tournament lineups.

WRs Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 18: vs. Car.): Both the Panthers and Saints are eliminated from playoff contention, which means they’ll likely play this out like a normal game and try to end their seasons on a high note. The Panthers have already been one of the worst WR defenses in the league, allowing the 3^rd-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranking 27^th in pass defense DVOA, but their pass defense could be even worse this week with star EDGE rusher Brian Burns popping up as questionable late in the week with an ankle injury. Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson are questionable for the Saints as well. If Taysom misses this game, it could mean more overall passing volume and more red zone opportunities for Olave and Shaheed. If Juwan Johnson sits, that means less target competition for the WR duo. Both receivers have top-15 upside in a game where the Saints may as well let it all hang out. The Panthers allowed 10-207-3 to Mike Evans and 9-120 to Chris Godwin last weekend with Jaycee Horn now on IR. There’s a big ceiling for the receivers if the Saints want to press the issue. Olave is 155 yards away from Michael Thomas’ franchise rookie receiving record. Don’t be surprised if the Saints make a push to get him there if he gets off to a fast start in this game.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Mia.): The Jets announced that it will be Joe Flacco starting the finale this week, and that means Wilson will probably be a safe WR3 even with the Jets eliminated from playoff contention. The Dolphins rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and in Flacco’s 3 starts early this season Wilson averaged 11 targets per game and put up stat lines of 4-52, 8-102-2, and 6-60. It’s possible that the Jets cut back on his playing time a bit with their season fate decided, but I think there’s too much ceiling here to sit him if you’re in an actual fantasy matchup this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. TB): London’s usage has exploded over the last month. He’s averaged 10 targets and 77 receiving yards per game in his last 4 games, and he’s put those numbers up in spite of Atlanta remaining the run-heaviest offense in the league. 47% of the team’s passing yards have gone to London in those 4 games. Atlanta is favored this week, so they could be even more run-heavy than usual, but London is a good bet for 7-8 targets against a Tampa defense that will be missing several key players this weekend, including their CB1 Carlton Davis and team sack leader Vita Vea. The low passing volume caps London’s ceiling, but he should be a solid WR3 again this week. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 18: vs. Cle.): Warren has been handling an increased workload in recent weeks, averaging 11 touches per game in the last 3 contests, and the Browns are one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. Najee Harris has averaged 23 touches per game over that same span. This is a do-or-die game for the Steelers’ playoff chances, so they should still rely heavily on Najee. There’s upside for Warren, but his workload is far from safe, and you’ll likely be disappointed by his output if he doesn’t get into the end zone. The Steelers have an implied point total of just 21 points this week. I’d view Warren as a dicey RB3.

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Mia.): Knight’s poor performance against the Jaguars in week 16 resulted in a big dent in his playing time last Sunday. Bam was on the field for just 21% of the offensive snaps against Seattle, the first time he’s played fewer than 40% of the snaps in any of the 6 games he’s been active for. Ty Johnson operated as the lead back in the committee, and there’s no way you can count on Knight stepping back into that lead role this Sunday. The Dolphins rank 6^th in run defense DVOA, and I wouldn’t expect much more production from Bam than we saw last week (44 scrimmage yards).

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 18: @Atl.): Tampa Bay has nothing to gain by winning this week, so I wouldn’t expect to see much of Rachaad or Leonard Fournette in this game. It’s likely to be a Ke’Shawn Vaughn game in the backfield, just like week 18 last year. I’d expect the starters to play a few series to stay fresh for the postseason, but I’d be surprised if White gets to double-digit touches.

RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): The Commanders bowed out of playoff contention with a whimper last weekend, barely showing up against a mediocre Browns’ team. Dallas has reason to be motivated to win this game with a division title and possible 1 seed still in play, and the Commanders have none. Washington has turned to rookie Sam Howell at QB, so it could be a shaky day for the offense as a whole. There’s no guarantee that Robinson sees his usual workload – he could give way to Jonathan Williams more often – and game script should prevent the Commanders from running a bunch as a touchdown underdog. The Cowboys allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game, and rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. It all adds up to a probable floor game for Robinson.

Update: Brian Robinson Jr. has been ruled out for week 18

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 18: vs. Cle.): Pickens has 50+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games, but he hasn’t shown much ceiling since the Steelers shifted to a more run-heavy offensive approach in the second half of the season. Starting in week 12, the Steelers made a commitment to the run game that has gotten their season turned around. The Steelers averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game prior to week 12, and just 29.1 per game since. Pickens’ volume has taken a hit as a result. The rookie saw 6+ targets come his way in 6 of the first 10 games this season (more than 6 in three of them), and he’s reached 6 targets just once in the last 6 games. His targets are typically far enough downfield that he can still post respectable stat lines on 4-5 targets, but it’s hard to get to double-digit points that way unless you score a touchdown. For the season, the Browns have allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, and most of the guys who have hurt them are truly elite receivers. In their past 10 games, only 7 receivers have reached 12 fantasy points (half-PPR) against Cleveland. Three of those receivers rank in the top 7 in fantasy points per game this year (Tyreek, Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs), and another 2 rank in the top-18 (Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin). If Pickens gets to double-digit points, it would be a successful day.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Dotson has earned 6+ targets in 4 straight games, and tallied at least 50 yards and a TD in 3 of them, and Dallas has been bleeding points to wide receivers since starting CB Anthony Brown went on IR. They’ve allowed 8 different receivers to score 12+ PPR points in the last 4 games, but Dotson’s QB situation could prove to be a problem. The Commanders will turn to Sam Howell to make his first career start this weekend, and the uncertainty that comes with that means Dotson is a very risky option in fantasy lineups this week. The Commanders are officially eliminated from playoff contention, so don’t be surprised if they don’t play their starters a full complement of snaps alongside the rookie QB.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Thornton has quietly moved into full-time role for the Patriots in recent weeks. He’s played at least 88% of the offensive snaps in 4 straight games, but it hasn’t led to huge production. Last week was the first time in any of those games that he topped 30 receiving yards. The rookie has big play upside, but he’s unlikely to cash in on it with Mac Jones throwing him the ball against a Buffalo defense that ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Tre’Davious White has been back in a full-time role for 4 games for the Bills, and in that time the only receivers to reach 11+ fantasy points against them (half-PPR) have been Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 18: vs. Det.): As the games have gotten more important for Green Bay, Doubs’ playing time has dwindled. He’s operated as the WR4 in this offense over the past few weeks with Christian Watson and Randall Cobb healthy. That doesn’t mean he can’t have a productive day against the Lions, who allow the 4^th-most WR points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA, but his limited playing time makes him much more volatile than the other Green Bay receivers. Doubs has tallied at least 4 targets in each of the last 3 games, but Watson left one of those games early and was given a lighter workload last week as he recovered. Doubs’ prices on DraftKings ($4,400 in full slate contests and $5,200 for showdown contests) are a little high given that there isn’t much of a floor for the rookie. I’d expect Rodgers to lean on the receivers he trusts most with the playoffs on the line.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 18: @Atl.): The Falcons have allowed the 4^th-most tight end points per game, and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but I can’t imagine Otton plays a ton in a game that Bucs have no need to win. Otton hasn’t made the most of his opportunities in the last couple weeks anyway, pulling in just 4 catches for 29 yards on 13 targets in the last two games. I’m not sure I’d consider him even a TE2 in this game. It could be a Ko Kieft week at tight end for the Bucs.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 18: vs. Cle.): There are no surprises with Pickett this week. He still hasn’t put up 2 or more TDs in any game he’s started this season, and he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 5 of his last 7 full games played. The Steelers should be going all-out this weekend with their playoff hopes still alive, but Pickett has consistently shown us that he doesn’t have much upside beyond the low-end QB2 range, and the Browns have allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game.

QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. TB): You might be tempted to consider Ridder in DFS lineups since he’s facing a Tampa Bay team that will be resting a lot of starters, but Atlanta just doesn’t throw the ball much when they’re winning. In their 6 wins this season, the Falcons have attempted more than 20 passes in just 2 of them, and thrown for 200+ yards in just 2 of them. If the game goes the way Vegas thinks it will (Atlanta is favored by 4 points), there just isn’t any extra passing upside for Ridder. He’s not a top-20 QB option this week.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 18: @SF): James Conner has been ruled out for week 18, so Ingram should be on the field for more than the 1 snap he played last week, but it was Corey Clement who took over the backfield after Conner was knocked out last week. The 49ers rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and allow the fewest RB points per game, so Ingram has little hope of a productive day unless he gets a workhorse role, and that just seems highly unlikely.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 18: @Sea.): The Seahawks allow the 2^nd-most RB points per game, but Kyren has averaged fewer than 4 touches per game in his last five games, and the Rams haven’t played a meaningful game in several weeks. Having nothing to play for this week shouldn’t mean a bigger workload for Williams.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 18: @NO): Blackshear could see some extra playing time this week with the team now eliminated from the division title hunt, but it’s impossible to count on it being a significant amount of extra playing time. Blackshear played 6 or fewer snaps in 4 of the last 5 games.

RBs Hassan Haskins & Julius Chestnut, TEN (Wk. 18: @Jax.): Derrick Henry is ready to go for week 18, and that means he’s going to carry the load this week. The Titans’ season is on the line and no one other than Henry is likely to get more than a few touches in this backfield.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 18: @GB): Williams has now been active for 5 games this season, but he has just 2 touches to show for it (though both of those touches went for at least 40 yards). The rookie’s playing time has been climbing – he set season-highs last week with a 31% route participation rate and 3 targets – but he remains nothing more than a big play dart throw. The Packers have allowed 4 completions of 35+ yards in their last 2 games, and those big plays are what you need to hope for from Williams if you start him in any format.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 18: @LV): Kansas City needs a win this weekend to ensure they get a 1^st round playoff bye, so I wouldn’t expect any big changes to the game plan or player usage unless this game gets out of hand. Kansas City is a 9-point favorite, so it very well could get out of hand, but last weekend is the only time since the start of December that Moore tallied 10+ receiving yards. I’d be surprised if he exceeds the 3-33 stat line he put up last Sunday.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 18: vs. Hou.): Pierce’s playing time took a step forward when Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, but his production went backwards. Pierce played at least 70% of the offensive snaps just twice in 8 games under Frank Reich, but he topped 35 receiving yards in 6 of them and posted 60+ yards 4 times. He’s been at 70% or more of the snaps played in 6 of 7 games since Saturday took over, but he’s reached 30 yards just once, and put up a goose egg 3 times. The Texans allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. Don’t expect a turnaround for Pierce here.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 18: @Pit.): Bell is no more likely to have a breakout performance this week than fellow Browns’ rookie receivers Daylen Baldwin and Michael Woods II. The trio has a combined 11 targets in the last 4 weeks, and none has earned more than 3 targets in any one game in that span. They’re all just low-upside dart throws.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 18: vs. Hou.): Nick Foles suffered a rib injury last week and will miss the season finale. The Colts will turn back to Sam Ehlinger at QB in this game. In Ehlinger’s two starts this season, he averaged 152 passing yards per game, and only 8.5% of those yards went to tight ends. Woods has caught for 35+ yards just 3 times this season, and I wouldn’t put money on him getting there a 4^th time this week.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 18: @Phi.): The Giants don’t figure to play their starters a whole lot with the team locked in as the 6-seed, so we could see a bit more of Chris Myarick and Nick Vannett this week while Bellinger spends more time on the bench. There isn’t enough upside to consider Bellinger.

Rookies who may as well be on byes: RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, RB Snoop Conner, JAX, RBs Pierre Strong & Kevin Harris, NE, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, TE Isaiah Likely, BAL, TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 18: vs. NYJ): Thompson will get the start this weekend, and although this matchup looks tough on paper, the Jets don’t have much to play for this week. Thompson has struggled when he’s been used in relief, but he was off to a strong start in his only start of the season before leaving that game with injury (he threw for 89 yards on the first 2 drives of the game vs Minnesota). Thompson is a risky play in any format, but he has electric weapons, the Dolphins need to win this game, and the Jets might not play with their usual defensive vigor. Thompson costs just $4,800 on DraftKings, and just $6,000 for showdown contests. This feels like a spot where we could see a surprise top-10 performance.

QB Sam Howell, WAS (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Howell will make his first career start on Sunday, and it comes in a tough spot against a good Dallas team that needs to win to keep hopes of a division title alive. The Cowboys rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest QB points per game for the year, but they’ve also been struggling since losing cornerback Anthony Brown for the season. Over the last 4 games without him, Dallas has allowed an average of 280 passing yards and 2 passing scores per game to the following combination of QBs: Davis Mills, Jeff Driskel, Trevor Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, and Joshua Dobbs. Howell has good enough weapons that he could have a passable fantasy performance in his debut. I don’t really know what that means for where you could use him this week, but don’t be surprised if Howell winds up as a high-end QB2 this week.

RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 18: vs. Ari.): The 49ers need to win this week to keep their hopes of a 1^st-round bye alive, and Arizona has nothing to play for and will be missing their QB1, RB1, and WR1 for this game. This game has the makings of a huge rout, and if that comes to fruition the 49ers will be handing off to their backup running backs a lot in the 2^nd half. Elijah Mitchell returns from injury this week, so he should get a good handful of carries to shake off the rust before the playoffs, but it should be either Mason or TDP handling the bulk of the 2^nd half carries if the game is a blowout. Arizona allows the 4^th-most RB points per game, so there’s an opportunity for a productive day on just those second half carries. Pay attention to who is inactive here. One of Mason or TDP could be inactive with Elijah back. If both are active, I’d prioritize Mason.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 18: @Den.): You need to keep your head on a swivel if you’re planning to use Spiller anywhere…his viability depends entirely on the Ravens/Bengals game in the early afternoon. If the Bengals win that game, the Chargers would be 100% locked into the 5^th seed and have no need to win this game. If the Ravens win, the door is still open for the Chargers to fall to 6^th with a loss, and there’s no way the Chargers want that to happen. As the 5-seed, they’d be facing either the Jaguars or Titans, both of whom will come up short of 10 wins this season. As the 6-seed, they’d likely face one of the Bills, Bengals, or Chiefs. If Baltimore wins early, you can’t start Spiller. The Chargers will likely play their normal starters. If the Bengals win, it opens the door for Spiller to get a lead back workload against a Denver defense that allows the 9^th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Spiller costs just $4,800 on DraftKings for full slate contests, and just $400 for showdown contests. There is some added risk here since the Chargers have 3 backup running backs who could get some run. Joshua Kelley has been the RB2 whenever he’s healthy, and Larry Rountree has been active ahead of Spiller each of the last two weeks as the RB3. I’ve got a hunch that the Chargers will sit Kelley along with Ekeler if their playoff fate is already decided, and that Rountree has only been playing ahead of Spiller because he’s a better special teamer. Make sure to check the team inactives before finalizing any lineups with a Chargers’ RB in them.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 18: vs. KC): The Raiders don’t have a good reason to continue to run Josh Jacobs into the ground now that they’ve been eliminated from the playoff hunt, and that means White could finally get a real opportunity at playing time against a middling Chiefs’ defense. Kansas City ranks 17^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 16^th-most RB points per game. Josh Jacobs hasn’t practiced all week and is listed as questionable for this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up inactive. White doesn’t have huge upside in a game where the Raiders should be facing negative game script for much of the day, but he can certainly provide a positive return at his DFS prices. He costs the minimum on DraftKings for multi-game slates, and just $200 in showdown contests. If Jacobs sits, White probably sees double-digit touches.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 18: @Jax.): Burks was a focal point in the passing game in Josh Dobbs’ first start last week, tallying 4-66 on 8 targets and adding a 20-yard rush against Dallas. The Jaguars rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA, and I expect the Titans to throw a little more than they want to as 6.5-point underdogs. We’ve seen Burks produce when given opportunities, and he should get plenty of them this week against the Jaguars. Joshua Dobbs may have more success in the passing game with Derrick Henry back to draw defensive attention as well. I like Burks to finish as a top-30 WR this week.

WR Jalen Nailor, MIN (Wk. 18: @Chi.): Nailor made a splash in garbage time against the Packers last weekend, pulling in 3 catches for 89 yards and a score on just 9 snaps. Minnesota is still in contention for the 2-seed, but they’d need the 49ers to lose as a 2-touchdown favorite for that to become a reality. The smart play would be to rest their starters, and that means Nailor could see some extended playing time against a defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA. Nailor was a downfield weapon at Michigan State, averaging more than 18 yards per catch in each of his last 2 college seasons, and the Bears allow the 3^rd-highest yards per completion in the league. If it sounds like the Vikings are going to rest their starters, Nailor is going to be a steal in all DFS formats. He costs the minimum for the main slate on DraftKings, and just $1,200 for showdown contests.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 18: @Jax.): The switch from Malik Willis to Joshua Dobbs at QB returns relevance to the Titans’ pass catchers for week 18. The Titans need to win this game to make the playoffs and win the division, and Dobbs gives them a better chance to do that than Willis. Tennessee will undoubtedly lean on their workhorse Derrick Henry in this game, but they’re a touchdown underdog, and game script may dictate that they have to throw more than they’d like to. The Jaguars allow the 9^th-most TE points per game and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA, and Okonkwo posted a line of 6-46-1 in the first meeting with Jacksonville. Okonkwo’s playing time was limited last week, but he was targeted on nearly 40% of his routes run with Dobbs at QB. If he plays a more normal complement of snaps this week, he’s got top-10 TE upside, and costs just $4,800 for showdown contests. He’s a playmaker the Titans should look to get involved.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 18: @SF): McBride had easily his best game of the season last week, putting up 7-71-1 on 10 targets against the Falcons. It was the only game this season that David Blough has started at QB, and it’ll be Blough under center again this week. The 49ers are a significantly tougher matchup for tight ends than the Falcons were last week, but Arizona will have to throw to someone and DeAndre Hopkins has been ruled out again. There should be plenty of targets coming McBride’s way again this week, and even with the tough matchup McBride has top-10 upside on Sunday.

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully this info helps you for week 18, and hopefully it’s been a help to you in sorting out what to do with your rookies throughout the season. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the fantasy semifinals for most leagues, and it’s going to be a challenging week to set lineups. Frigid weather across the US this Christmas could result in some low-scoring NFL games, and some low-scoring fantasy matchups to go with it. For the season, the average NFL game has seen an average of 44.2 combined points scored, but this week 10 of the 16 games have Vegas over/under totals below 42 points. We could see limited passing game production in those games affected by the temperature, especially the games where the wind will be a problem like in Chicago and Cleveland. Keep that in mind this week as you set your lineups and pay attention to up-to-date weather reports on game day.

Week 15 was a disappointing one for the rookies in general. The standouts came from unexpected places. The highest scoring rookie QB was Brock Purdy. At running back, the top two were Tyler Allgeier and Jaylen Warren. Jahan Dotson and Rashid Shaheed paced the rookie receivers, and the top rookie tight ends were Peyton Hendershot and Teagan Quitoriano. Raise your hand if you had any of those guys other than Purdy in your lineups. Can you go back to the rookies who had been more reliable prior to last week with your season on the line – Kenneth Walker III, Garrett Wilson, Isiah Pacheco, Christian Watson, Bam Knight, Greg Dulcich, etc.? That’s what I’m here to talk about this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s jump into week 16…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 16: @KC): Walker returned from injury last week and just barely cracked the top-24 PPR backs for the week, but that was an encouraging result given the matchup he was facing. His 79 scrimmage yards were the 2^nd-highest total the 49ers have allowed to any running back this year, and Kansas City is a much more favorable matchup this week. The Chiefs have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game this year, and Walker has been a top-24 finisher in each of the last 8 games that he’s been healthy.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Wilson has 75+ yards in 6 of the last 7 games, and this week faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The floor is definitely lower for Wilson with Zach Wilson at QB, but Zach started 4 of those last 7 games. The ceiling here is too high to sit Garrett if you have him just because Zach Wilson is at QB. The bigger concern in this game is the weather. It’s going to be cold, rainy, and windy on Thursday night in New Jersey, but again the ceiling is still here. You’d better have a stud ahead of him if you sit Garrett in this one. The matchup is very good, and Wilson has been producing in spite of Zach in most of their recent games together.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Purdy has continued to impress since taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s accounted for 7 TDs in nearly 3 full games under center and he finished as the QB8 and QB14 in the last two weeks. There have been some concerning underlying numbers – Purdy’s on-target % according to Pro-Football Reference would rank behind 26 of 33 qualified QBs despite an average target depth of just 6 yards, and Purdy was bailed out last week by a dropped interception – but the 49ers play-calling and surrounding talent continue to put Purdy in positions to succeed, and he’s doing enough to take advantage. The Commanders’ pass defense has been solid lately, allowing 200 or fewer passing yards in their last 5 games, and allowing no more than 1 TD in each of the last 4, but I expect the game plan here to continue to give Purdy easy opportunities. He doesn’t have enough ceiling to be a QB1, but he should be a solid QB2 option again this week, even in a tougher matchup.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Pacheco didn’t have the blow-up game I was hoping for last week against the Texans thanks to a fumble lost and zero TDs, but he topped 80 scrimmage yards for the 6^th-straight game and gets another silver-platter matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 2^nd-most RB points per game and has coughed up over 120 rushing yards per week to opposing backs. Pacheco should be a solid RB2 this week in a game where the Chiefs may opt to run more than usual in frigid temperatures. Kansas City has the highest implied point total of the week at 29 points.

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Bam had a disappointing game last week against a resurgent Detroit run defense, totaling just 23 yards on 13 carries. The sledding gets a little easier this week against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 14^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-most points per game to the position. The weather on Thursday night will be wet and windy, so both teams will likely look to run the ball more than usual. Knight has handled at least 59% of the team’s rushing attempts in each of the last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead rusher in this one. He’s battled an ankle injury in practice this week, but he practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go. I like him as a back-end RB2 this week in what should be a more run-heavy game plan than we typically see from the Jets.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): White was a big letdown last week. He handled a reasonable 12 touches, but only one of those was a reception and he totaled just 43 scrimmage yards. It appears that Fournette is back in the 1A position in this backfield, but his advantage over White isn’t a substantial one. Both backs remain very involved. The Bucs are a touchdown favorite this week against a sputtering Cardinals team that will be starting its 3^rd-string QB. Arizona is in the bottom 10 in the NFL at limiting RB receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs, and allows the 8^th-most running back points per game. Rachaad could see extended opportunities in the 2^nd half if the Bucs are playing with the lead, and I expect him to get back into the RB2 range this week in a plus matchup.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): This game looks to have the most shootout potential on the slate this week thanks to injuries and weather affecting other matchups. Green Bay will need to throw against a Miami defense that is much softer against the pass than against the run - they rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and 11^th in run defense DVOA. Miami’s aggressive defense probably is more favorable for Romeo Doubs than Watson, as he’ll get some of the shorter throws to beat a blitzing defense, but Rodgers has made a point of getting Watson involved in the red zone. Prior to last Monday’s game, Watson had scored 8 TDs in the previous 4 contests, and on Monday Rodgers threw the ball Watson’s way 3 times in the red zone, and twice from the 5-yard line or closer. Watson’s TD upside gives him too much ceiling to leave benched unless you have great players ahead of him.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): London has posted back-to-back impressive performances, tallying 6-95 on 12 targets and 7-70 on 11 targets over his last two games despite having a different QB for each. They are the only games where he’s topped 50 yards since week 3. It’s a promising development for the rookie for the stretch run. He topped a 40% target share and 40% air yardage share in each game and figures to continue being the focal point of the passing game moving forward. The Ravens have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but London will likely see a lot of Marlon Humphrey in coverage – Humphrey ranks 17^th out of 122 cornerbacks in coverage grade on Pro Football Focus. We know Atlanta wants to run the ball a lot, and the matchup could be tough, but London should be a good bet for at least 7-8 targets. I wouldn’t expect a week-winning performance, but London should be a solid WR3 option this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAR): Dulcich face-planted last weekend in a prime matchup with Brett Rypien under center, but I’d advocate going back to the well again this week if you don’t have a clear top-8 option at the position. Dulcich continues to post route participation rates of 80% or better, he gets Russell Wilson back this week, and he’s playing indoors instead of in the unforgiving elements that others will be dealing with. The Rams have been above average at limiting tight ends this year, allowing the 12^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve given up a tight end score in 5 of their last 8 games. Dulcich garnered 8 targets in each of Russ’s last 2 starts. I’d trust him as a fringe top-10 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Allgeier had been quietly very effective rushing the ball for the last month and a half, and he decided to be a bit louder about it in week 15. The rookie piled up 139 yards and a TD on just 17 carries against the Saints last week. It was his best game of the season, but it was also the 5^th time in his last 6 games that he’s run for 50+ yards and averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry. You know the Falcons want to run a lot, and Allgeier has been tough to slow down. With that said, I don’t love the matchup here this week. Since the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith ahead of week 9, only 1 running back has rushed for 50+ yards against them (Nick Chubb last week). Allgeier is still splitting this backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson – his 50% share of the team rushing attempts last week was the highest mark he’s hit in any game C-Patt has been active for – and the Ravens allow the 3^rd-fewest RB rushing yards per game. Allgeier has just 6 receptions in the last 6 games, so he isn’t going to be a factor in the passing game. You’re going to need a touchdown to get a useful week from the rookie in this one, and Atlanta’s implied point total is just 15 points.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Robinson has rushed for 85+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, but he’ll be hard-pressed to do it again this week against the 49ers. Positive or neutral game scripts have been a big part of Robinson’s sustained success, and the Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs this week against a 49er defense that has allowed the fewest running back points per game. Only one running back has rushed for 50+ yards against the 49ers since week 6, and none has run for 60 yards against them all year. Robinson is going to need a touchdown to return value in this game, and the Commanders have an implied Vegas point total of just 16. This is a week where a lot of teams should lean on the ground game due to bad weather. There are several better options to look to this week if you’re using a grinder RB who doesn’t catch many passes.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Dotson has been coming on in the last couple of weeks, scoring a TD and finishing as a top-18 WR in both meetings with the Giants on either side of the team’s week 14 bye. This week he faces the 49ers, who are a dominant defense against every position except wide receiver. The 49ers have allowed the 13^th-most wide receiver points per game, but the guys who have produced against them have mostly done it with volume. Only 5 receivers all year have reached even a dozen PPR points against San Francisco without seeing at least 9 targets to get there, and 4 of those 5 got in the end zone to do it. Dotson can’t be relied on for volume. He’s topped 6 targets just twice all year, so you’re going to need him to find the end zone for the 3^rd straight game to get useful value here. The Commanders’ implied total of just 16 points means that Dotson isn’t a great TD bet. I’d view him as a WR4 this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickens has averaged a robust 26.2 yards per catch over the last two weeks, but his volume has been too inconsistent to trust with your season on the line. The Steelers have leaned into running the football in recent weeks, and the weather for this game will likely cause them to lean even further into it, with negative wind chills and 25 mph winds in the forecast. In normal circumstances, this would be a great spot for Pickens - the Raiders rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA – but it's hard to envision the rookie continuing to get by on long-distance catches in an environment where it’ll be hard to throw deep. He’s got enough ceiling that you could start him if you’re desperate, but the floor here scares me.

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Shaheed was in a route on a whopping 95% of the team’s passing dropbacks last weekend, and this week both Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry have been ruled out with injury. Shaheed could serve as the team’s de-facto WR1, but I’m not sure that’s going to lead to a spike game in harsh weather conditions in Cleveland. Shaheed has made his living this season on big plays, and it’s hard to envision any big pass plays hitting in 30 mph winds and snow. Maybe Shaheed hits a big play on a designed rushing attempt or special teams return, but any pass catchers will be dicey options in what should be a strange game. I think we could see a ton of Taysom Hill in this game for the Saints. I wouldn’t want to roll with Shaheed in these conditions.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 16: @Car.): Williams didn’t see a noticeable leap in playing time last week, running a route on just 16% of the team passing dropbacks in their win vs. the Jets.  Jameson earned just one target, although that one target likely would’ve been a 45-yard touchdown if Jared Goff hadn’t underthrown it, but that’s what Williams is at this point. He’s a dart throw at a big play that’s really only an option in DFS formats and the deepest of leagues. The Panthers are a worse pass defense than the Jets, ranking 21^st in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve only allowed 3 completions of 40+ yards all season.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Burks should be back this week after missing the past two games with a concussion, but he returns to Malik Willis under center. Willis has averaged just 13 pass attempts per game in his two starts this season, so even if the Titans don’t ease Burks back in, there isn’t going to be enough passing volume to rely on him in fantasy leagues this week. I’d be surprised if he gets to 5 targets with Willis under center, and the Texans allow the 4^th-fewest WR points per game.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): The Texans were the last opponent to hold Okonkwo under 30 receiving yards back in week 8, and while Chig’s role is not the same today as it was then, Malik Willis returning to the starting lineup makes it likely the Texans hold Okonkwo under 30 again. Okonkwo had been building steam with Tannehill. He had been targeted at least 5 times in each of the last 4 games and scored 10+ PPR points in each of the last 3, but passing volume will be non-existent with Willis back under center. Malik completed a total of 11 passes in his two previous starts. Okonkwo did haul in a 48-yard catch in one of those two starts, but he has no floor if he doesn’t hit a big play. That’s too much risk for me in the league semifinals.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickett should be good-to-go this week and return to the starting lineup, but his outlook isn’t any different than what I described last week. He’s still got no more than 1 total TD in any of his last 8 full games played, has hit 15+ fantasy points just once all year, and has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 of his last 5 full games. The Raiders look like a tasty matchup on paper, allowing the 7^th-most QB points per game, but the 4 highest point totals they allowed to the position all happened before their week 6 bye. No QB in their last 9 games has accounted for more than 2 touchdowns, and only one QB in the last 5 weeks has accounted for more than 1 score. Pickett has a little more yardage upside than we’ve seen in recent weeks (the Raiders have only held one QB all year below 200 passing yards – Mac Jones last week), but his lack of ceiling makes him a fringe QB2 again.

QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Ridder’s first start looked pretty similar to what we’ve seen from Marcus Mariota this season – Mariota averaged 23 pass attempts and 34 rushing yards per game in his starts this year, and Ridder was at 26 attempts and 38 rushing yards in his debut – but Ridder wasn’t nearly as efficient throwing the football as Mariota has been. Ridder completed just 50% of his passes (lower than all but one single-game mark for Mariota), and he threw for just 97 yards. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA and hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to rush for 30+ yards since week 4. The rushing potential of Ridder means that you could throw him into a lineup as your QB2 if you’re desperate, but the floor here is low in Ridder’s 2^nd career start. I’d rather start the Ravens’ defense this week than Ridder as a QB2.

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury and will spend the rest of the season on IR, so it should be Willis under center the rest of the way. Willis made two starts earlier in the season, including one against the Texans, and they totaled just 9.6 fantasy points in those two games. He completed just 11 total passes while Derrick Henry piled up 49 carries. Willis could go out and run for 80 yards and still not post a useful fantasy day with the kind of passing volume I’d expect here. Willis has arguably the highest ceiling of any of the 3 QBs listed in this section, but easily the lowest floor.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Mason almost made good on my prediction last week that he would get into the end zone, but the Seahawks managed to run him out of bounds at the 2-yard line at the end of a 55-yard run. That breakaway run helped Mason end up with his best rushing total of the season, but his overall usage is troubling for his outlook moving forward. I expected Mason could see a spike in usage with Deebo Samuel not stealing rushing touches, but instead the 49ers leaned more into Christian McCaffrey handling a workhorse role. Mason played just 7 snaps, with most of them coming in the 4^th quarter with the game decided. The 49ers face off this week with a Washington defense that ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. Mason has set a new career-high in rushing yards in each of the last 5 weeks, but I don’t see a path to him making it 6 straight. 

RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong Jr., NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): There was excitement for both rookie backs last week with Damien Harris ruled out and Rhamondre Stevenson very questionable ahead of the game, but Stevenson dashed those hopes when he ended up active. The Patriots eased Rhamondre in early, but he dominated touches in the second half and overtime and finished with 168 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. The two rookies still totaled 12 combined touches, but Strong is the one who stood out for fantasy purposes with 3 targets and receptions. Both are bad options this week even if Damien Harris is out again, as they’ll get limited touches against a Cincy defense that allows the 13^th-fewest RB points per game. Damien Harris is a free agent at season’s end, so Strong could be worth a speculative add in dynasty leagues where he’s still available. He could be the RB2 behind Rhamondre next season.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Williams has just 8 carries and 3 targets over the last 3 games. Cam Akers has been re-established as the Rams’ RB1, and there isn’t enough playing time for Williams to be considered for lineups.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Despite being the Cardinals’ RB2, Ingram has just 11 carries for 32 yards in total over the past 6 weeks. This is a one-man backfield.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Pierce’s production has been inconsistent from week to week this year, even since he’s stepped into more of a full-time role with Jeff Saturday in charge, and he’ll be working with a new QB this week in Nick Foles. Pierce has averaged 4.3 targets per game over the last 6 games, but he’s topped 30 yards just once in that span and the Chargers allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Even if Foles provides a boost to the passing game, Pierce isn’t a good bet to make for lineups this week.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Thornton has now run a route on more than 90% of the Patriots' passing dropbacks in each of the past two games, and he has 5 catches for 49 yards on 9 targets to show for it. Mac Jones has regressed as a passer this year with Matt Patricia calling the plays, and the Bengals rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA. On top of that, Thornton was added to the injury report on Wednesday. A mid-week addition to the injury report is never a good sign. I wouldn’t expect a full-time role for the rookie this week, and we’ve already seen him not produce with a full-time workload.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. NO): Bell was inactive last weekend with a toe injury, and I’d expect his usage to be limited this week even if he plays. This game currently has the lowest Vegas over/under in 14 years at just 31.5. This is not a game where you should be thinking about using ancillary parts like Bell in any format.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Moore’s route participation rate has decreased in each of the last 3 weeks, reaching just 19% last Sunday. He’s scored just 4.1 PPR points in total over those 3 games, and while the Seahawks' defense isn’t good, they’ve allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. There’s nothing here this week.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Jones played a season-high 68% of the Bears’ offensive snaps last week with Chase Claypool inactive and Equanimeous St. Brown leaving early with a concussion. He turned that playing time into 2 touches for 3 yards. The weather in Chicago this weekend isn’t going to be conducive to big passing numbers, the Bears throw the ball less than any other team in the league, and the Bills rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA. There isn’t a good reason to consider Jones this week even if ESB and Claypool are both out again. Even the return of N’Keal Harry (who practiced in full Tuesday) could push Velus back to the bench.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): In case you missed the update, Olave has been ruled out for this week’s game against the Browns, along with Jarvis Landry.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): McBride followed up his best game of the season in week 14 with an even better game in week 15, tallying 4-55 on 5 targets against the Broncos. It’s a promising sign for the rookie, and the Bucs have allowed 3 tight end scores in their last 4 games, but Trace McSorley at QB makes McBride too risky to roll the dice on outside of DFS formats. For what it’s worth, 2 catches and 43 yards of McBride’s output last Sunday came after McSorley entered the game, so there is some appeal as a DFS dart throw.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Woods’ breakout Monday Night Football performance in week 12 seems like ages ago after he played less than 25% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games. The switch to Nick Foles at QB throws even more uncertainty into where the Colts’ passing targets will go. Anything more than 5 PPR points would be a positive result for Woods.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): In the two games where Tyler Huntley has played more than 70% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps this year, Likely has averaged 3 catches for 24 yards on 3.5 targets. Atlanta allows the 4^th-most tight end points per game this season, but that doesn’t mean you should bet on Likely substantially outperforming those averages. Mark Andrews is much more likely to be the beneficiary. I’d expect Likely to be back in that 5-6 PPR point range at best.

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): Ferguson should return this week after missing last week’s game with a concussion, but he’s topped 15 yards just twice all year. Hendershot has scored a touchdown on 3 of his last 7 offensive touches, but those have come over the course of 8 games. Both players remain just TD dart throws for DFS lineups.

Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Zamir White, LV, RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Cole Turner, WAS, TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Patriots haven’t even hinted at Zappe possibly starting this week, but there has been plenty of noise among Pats fans that it’s time to make the switch. Mac Jones has been really struggling over the last few weeks, even without considering his missed tackle of Chandler Jones. Mac had a season-low 42% completion percentage last weekend against a mediocre Raiders pass defense. If he struggles again this week (a likely outcome against a ‘fairly tough’ Bengals’ defense), we could see Zappe starting in week 16 in a must-win game against the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game this season. If you’re in a superflex semifinal this week, and you’re relying on a one-game spot starter like Zach Wilson, Gardner Minshew, or Tyler Huntley, you could possibly get ahead of the curve for your week 17 QB2 by picking up Zappe now.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 16: @Chi.): The Bills are not likely to deploy their usual high-flying passing offense on Saturday in Chicago in frigid, windy conditions. Cook has been a bigger part of the rushing attack in recent weeks, handling 38.3% of the team’s running back rushing attempts over the last 3 weeks, and the Bears rank just 27^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most RB rushing yards per game. If the Bills lean on the run game, Cook should be in line to be a borderline RB2/RB3. He’s finished with 10+ PPR points in two of the last 3 games.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): The Steelers have transitioned to being a more run-heavy football team over the last 6 weeks or so, and for much of that the prime beneficiary was Najee Harris, but the Steelers made a push to get Warren more involved last week. Najee Harris did pop up on the injury report this week with a hip injury, but Warren was involved right away on the first drive last week, so this shift doesn’t seem injury related. Warren finished the game with a season-high 11 carries for 38 yards and a TD and hauled in an 11-yard reception. This week he faces a Las Vegas defense that allows the 5th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA. If his increased usage carries over to this week, Warren has some intriguing DFS upside at just $4,600 for showdown contests on DraftKings. There’s not enough usage here for Warren to get slotted into normal lineups though.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): The Packers didn’t hesitate to get Doubs worked back into the offense in his first game back since week 9 on Monday night. Doubs didn’t play a full-time role, handling just 23 offensive snaps, but he was targeted on 5 of those snaps (including one on Green Bay’s third play from scrimmage) and finished with 5 catches for 55 yards. I’d expect his playing time to go up this week with the Packers fighting for a playoff spot. Miami ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA, and this is one of the few outdoor games this week where the weather shouldn’t be a problem. The Dolphins blitz at the 7^th-highest rate in the league, which leads to quicker, shorter throws, and that favors Doubs (his aDOT is 3 yards lower than Allen Lazard or Christian Watson). I like Doubs’ chances at another solid game to build on what he did last week. Something like 6-70 would be a positive development.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Otton’s Cam Brate streak survived another week. He still hasn’t eclipsed 7 PPR points in any game that Cam Brate has been active for (he put up 10+ in 4 of the 5 games Brate missed), but I like his chances to break that streak this week. Arizona has allowed 70 receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a tight end in 7 of their past 8 games, and Otton is the tight end on the Bucs that is likeliest to take advantage. He’s still risky for playoff lineups, but there is some upside for DFS lineups or if you’re in a real pinch in a season-long league.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): Bellinger has some added upside this week as he gets the most favorable matchup he’s faced since returning from his eye injury. The rookie is playing a full-time role with a route participation rate above 80% in two of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 4 targets per game in those contests against good tight end defenses. This week he faces the Vikings, who allow the 13^th-most tight end points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Bellinger has a real chance to creep into the top-12 tight ends this week despite averaging just 16 yards per game in the last 3 weeks.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend and advance to your title game. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.