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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 11 was a coming out party for some less heralded rookies.  Buck Allen showed he can carry the load in Baltimore with Justin Forsett down to a broken arm. Tyler Lockett continued to produce against the 49ers, scoring his 2nd and 3rd TDs against SF of the season. JJ Nelson put on a late night show on Sunday, torching the Bengals for over 140 yards and a TD. Devin Funchess also put up the best game of his career, and Jameis Winston put up an incredible FIVE touchdown passes. Those 5 guys were all great, but the king of week 11 was Thomas Rawls. When Marshawn Lynch showed up as a late scratch on Sunday, Rawls stepped in and didn't miss a beat. He piled up 209 rushing yards and over 250 yards from scrimmage while tacking on 2 TDs as well. I had Rawls pegged as a sleeper a week ago, expecting him to get some additional run in garbage time, but I certainly didn't anticipate a 37-point outburst. With Marshawn questionable going forward, Rawls may continue to be a stud while BeastMode sits. Let's dive into what we can expect in week 12...

Rookies to Start:

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Even as the offense implodes around him, Gurley has found the end zone and/or topped 100 yards in each of his 7 starts this season. He's shown that he's a locked-in RB1 even in less than ideal matchups like the one he has this week. I'd expect him in the 12-15 point range this week in standard leagues, and a couple points higher in PPR, but he's good enough that there is upside for more.

RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Don't expect another near 40-point outing from Rawls, but Lynch is going to miss 4-5 weeks after having sports hernia surgery, and Rawls will continue to start in his stead. In his 4 starts this season, Rawls has 86 carries for 530 yards and 2 TDs (6.16 ypc) and he's chipped in another score through the air. He is facing the defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, so he's more of a contrarian play in DFS tournaments, but the Seahawks aren't getting away from their run-first approach. Rawls should be a top-10 RB this week.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. SD): Yeldon gets the best matchup possible this week. The Chargers allow the most RB points in the league. They also have allowed the 2nd most RB scrimmage yards (Saints are number 1), they're tied with the Falcons for the most total RB touchdowns allowed, and they are the worst in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat. Yeldon's volume has remained steady with at least 16 touches in every game he's played since week 3, and this is an ideal spot to do damage with those touches. The Chargers are fresh off getting shredded by unknown backup Spencer Ware. Yeldon should be close to being an RB1 this week.

RB Buck Allen, BAL (Wk. 12: @Cle.): With the injury to Justin Forsett, Allen has virtually no competition for the number one RB job in Baltimore. He hasn't been overly impressive or efficient, averaging 3.9 yards per carry with no TDs on the season, but he's going to see a ton of volume, and gets a great matchup in his first start. The Browns are ranked 30th in the league in run defense DVOA, and allow opposing RBs 122 rush yards per game. WIth Flacco out, I would expect the Ravens to lean on the run and short passing game even more than usual. Allen carried 22 times last week and was targeted 6 times in the passing game. With Marc Trestman as OC, you know the targets will continue. He should be a solid RB2 this week thanks to the ample volume he should continue to receive.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 12: @Ten.): Amari is coming off his worst game as a pro, with just 1 catch for 4 yards and 2 bad drops with Darius Slay shadowing him. The Titans are a better matchup for him, although they are 13th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WR1s. The Raiders should look to pepper Cooper with targets to get him and the whole offense back on track, and he should be able to return to WR2 status this week as a result.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 12: @Ind.): After he put up 5 TDs last week, it's almost impossible to sit Winston this week I'm sure. He does have a solid matchup again, and I'm sure the Colts won't be sleeping on Doug Martin after he ran for over 200 yards last week. I expect the defensive focus to be on stopping the Dougernaut, so Winston should have to throw a few more times this week. Indy has allowed 280+ passing yards in 7 of their last 8 games, multiple TD passes in 6 of those 8, and 13+ QB points in all 10 of their games this year. Don't expect a repeat of the 5-TD ouburst, but Jameis should be right on the cusp of the top-10 QBs this week.

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): The Raiders have allowed 20+ QB points in 4 of their last 5 games, and in the one game they didn't Adrian Peterson ran for 200 yards on them. The loss of Aldon Smith is a big blow to their pass defense. I don't expect Antonio Andrews to run for 200 yards, so Mariota will be thowing some. Mariota was actually the QB10 in week 11 against Jacksonville despite just 1 TD (rushing), and the return of Kendall Wright should be a big help. The increased emphasis on Mariota rushing should give him a higher floor going forward, and his ceiling this week is a mid-level QB1 due to the matchup. I'd be willing to fire him up as a high-QB2, or as a low-end QB1 in a 12 or 14 team league.

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 12: @GB): The Packers' run defense has been improving of late, and Langford's role for this week is in doubt with the potential return of Matt Forte. Forte has as much as said he's playing for his next contract, so expect Langford to remain involved, but the Pack have allowed just 22 RB points total in the past 3 games. Sure, one of those games was against the hapless Lions' rush attack, but they also held the Panthers' RBs to 86 scoreless yards and held Adrian Peterson to 45 and a TD. They've also allowed the 5th fewest RB receiving yards on the season. If Forte is out, Langford should be fired up as an RB2 despite the matchup, but it sounds like Forte will play, which makes Langford a low floor flex option.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): After the roller coaster Jones has put his owners through the last 2 weeks, people are likely off using him. He put up 187 scrimmage yards and a TD on just 14 touches in week 10, then followed it up with 12 yards on 7 touches the following week and also lost a fumble. The ball security issues are concerning, and he has a basement-level floor each week, but the Giants can be run on. The G-Men gave up over 100 rush yards to RBs every game from week 5 to week 9 as well as 3 rush TDs in that stretch. If Jones gets going early, he could be an upside flex play in deeper leagues.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): The  benching of Johnny Manziel should help out Duke quite a bit. Johnson makes his living in the receiving game, and he caught 6 passes for 56 yards in Manziel's 2 starts, and 33 for 331 yards in the previous 6 games with McCown starting. The Ravens do a good job limiting RB fantasy points, but they rank just 15th in run defense DVOA, and 18th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Johnson did catch  6 passes for 55 yards and ran for an additional 22 the last time the Browns faced the Ravens. He's back to being a PPR flex play as long as McCown is under center. He might even start to see more carries after Isaiah Crowell put up 5 rushes for -4 yards in the Browns' last game.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Diggs has 6 receptions or more in 5 of his last 7 games, but he gets a stiff test this week. The Falcons have a solid pass defense DVOA against all WRs and TEs (only struggling vs. RBs), and allow the 3rd fewest WR fantasy points in the league. Diggs should see a fair amount of Desmond Trufant, who is one of the better CBs in the NFL. I'd also expect the Vikings to have more success running the ball than throwing it this week, which will limit the overall passing volume. All this adds up to Diggs being a questionable WR3 play this week. If he topped 60 yards and scored a TD it would probably be his most impressive game of the year despite better numbers in other weeks.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 12: @Dal.): Funchess has continued to emerge over the past few weeks, posting a 9-172-2 line over his last 3 games, benefitting from a Corey Brown injury on Sunday. Brown is doubtful to play in Dallas on the short week, so there will be opportunities for Funchess to make some big plays again. It looks like he may draw rookie Byron Jones in coverage, and Jones has been impressive this year, but Funchess has 4 inches and 38 lbs on Jones. He's a decent bet to find the end zone for the 3rd time in 4 weeks.

WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): After a brutal week 11 performance against the Panthers, Crowder should return to 5-50 land this week. His snap share hasn't dropped over the past 2 weeks, so I'm not scared off by DeSean Jackson being back at full strength. He should be a low-ceiling PPR WR3 this week against the Giants. New York has allowed stat lines of 5-55 (Adam Humphries) and 10-79 (Danny Amendola) to slot-type WRs in the last 2 games. I think Jamison gets back to the kind of production we were seeing before last week.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 12: @Jax): The San DIego offense has been crumbling with their top receiving threats all out with injury, and Gordon gets a less than favorable matchup anyway this week. The Jaguars have given up just 244 rush yards to RBs in their past 4 games (61 yds/gm), and Gordon isn't likely to get his yardage in the receiving game either (just 9 catches for 45 yards in his past 3 games). The upside just isn't there for Gordon this week even if he gets decent volume. I'd avoid Melvin if you can.

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 12: @KC): The touchdown streak finally ended for Karlos last week, and it resulted in a brutal fantasy week if you played him. The Chiefs' defense is coming together of late and, outside of their game against Cincinnati, KC has only allowed 1 rushing TD all year. I expect this to be the 2nd week in a row Karlos fails to find pay dirt, and I would keep him benched in this one.

RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Coleman wasted a golden opportunity last Sunday to take back a share of the workload he lost to Devonta Freeman early in the year. Freeman went down early with a concussion, but Coleman managed just 48 yards on 17 carries (2.8 ypc) and also lost a fumble in a loss that could end up being the difference between making and missing the playoffs. The Colts aren't exactly an elite run defense. Freeman looks on track to return this week, and if he does, Coleman goes back to his role as no more than a handcuff. If Freeman misses, Coleman would be a low upside flex option against a decent Viking defense.

RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): I really wish Cobb had looked better last week. He carried 4 times for -3 yards in his season debut while Antonio Andrews bounced back from a terrible game against the Panthers to post 78 yards on 15 carries last Thursday. The Raiders are a great matchup for running backs lately. They've coughed up an average of 22 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs even though they allowed just 4 points to the Jets in that stretch. Even the Lions put up 15 on Oakland. Coach Mularkey talked up getting Cobb more work this week, but with how effective Antonio Andrews was last week, I'll believe it when I see it. I expect Cobb will still see single-digit touches.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Apparently Tyler Lockett owns the 49ers. He's scored 3 receiving TDs in 2 games against SF, and has 0 in his other 8 games, and his target volume just hasn't been consistent enough to trust him. If you could count on 5 targets each week, Lockett would be a reasonable desperation WR3, but you can't. He's had 4 or 5 targets in 5 of his last 7 games, but just 1 total in the other 2. Until the consistency is there, you can't use him in your season-long lineups or in DFS cash games.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): The Lions' pass defense has been rapidly improving since they started using Darius Slay in shadow coverage on the opposing team's top outside WR (24.2 WR points per game allowed before, 12.3 in 3 games since vs. KC, GB & OAK). Since Slay doesn’t often venture into the slot (he shadowed James Jones in GB rather than Cobb), Agholor should be the one who sees Slay the most. It doesn’t help that Mark Sanchez showed no ability to throw the ball outside the numbers last week, instead focusing the pass attack on the RBs and TEs. Agholor wasn't producing before Sanchez took over, and I don't expect him to now in a tough matchup.

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Maxx's role seems like it's stabilizing and maybe even expanding a bit since Steve Smith Sr. went down, but it should still be safe to keep him benched this week. He has put up 7-60-1 in the last 2 games on 8 targets (4 in each game), but Crockett Gillmore is still the one looked to most often in the red zone. Maxx has just 1 TD to Gillmore's 4, and Gillmore has almost as many yards in the past 2 weeks (143) as Maxx has for the whole season (168).

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Abdullah finally got double-digit carries again in week 11, and may have worked himself out of the doghouse that his fumbles got him into earlier in the season. He definitely should give the Lions more in the lead back role than they're getting from Joique Bell. This could actually be a great spot for Abdullah to get on track. The Eagles' once solid run defense has been crumbling the last 4 weeks. Philly allowed a rushing line of 77-349-1 (4.5 ypc) to opposing RBs before allowing 38 rushes for 283 to the Buccaneers. I wouldn't be surprised in Abdullah has his best game since his NFL debut.

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 12: @SF): If there was ever a week for Johnson to get extended work, this is it. This one has all the makings of a blowout. The Cardinals' offense has been locked in of late, and Arizona is a 7-point favorite at SF. If the rout is on early, DJ should see more touches than we're used to him seeing. He does have 7 TDs in 10 games with the limited work he's been seeing. He's an intriguing DFS punt option.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): While Kendall Wright's return could take a couple of snaps and targets away from DGB, I would expect it to take some of the defensive attention off him and be a good thing for this offense as a whole. The Raiders have been bleeding pass yards all year (only 1 game with under 260 yards allowed, 4 with over 330), and I think DGB bounces back from his underwhelming game last week and approaches the 5-77 line he put up on the Saints.

WR JJ Nelson, ARI (Wk. 12: @SF): What a show Nelson put on last week. He made the most of his opportunity with Michael Floyd out to show off his blazing 4.28 deep speed. The Cardinals have said they're going to be cautious with Floyd and his hamstring injury, so Nelson should be the WR3 again this week in a good matchup. Only 2 teams have connected for more pass plays of 40+ yards than Arizona, and only 3 have allowed more of those passes than the 49ers. Bruce Arians likes to have 6 'shot plays' in every gameplan, and I'd expect the majority of those to target Nelson or Smokey John Brown. JJ might get loose for another long TD and would be a great punt play in DFS.

WR Chris Humphries, TB (Wk. 12: @Ind.): The Colts will have to choose whether they want to put Vontae Davis on Mike Evans or on V-Jax, but one person I can say for sure he won't be on is Adam Humphries, which could free him up for another solid week. He's tallied 11 catches for 130 yards on 14 targets over the past 3 weeks, and Indy is 30th in the league in pass defense DVOA on passes thrown to WRs other than number 1 or 2. With the defensive focus on Doug Martin and the twin towers outside, Humphries may pull in 5 or 6 catches this week.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 12: @Ten.): Walford is a TD dart throw and DFS punt play yet again this week. The Titans have allowed 8 TE touchdowns in 11 games, and have been especially bad over the past 3 games, giving up a 26-228-4 line to TEs in that span. Clive has scored 3 TDs in the past 5 games. 20-30 yards and a TD are very much a possiblity for the Oakland rookie.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 12: @Was.): Tye is more of a dynasty stash than a sleeper for this week. Larry Donnell was uninspiring before going down with an injury, with just 2 TDs in 8 games and a season-high of 38 yards in a game. Will Tye got the start in week 10 and put up 5 catches for 56 yards and looked noticeably more athletic than Donnell. Larry will return this week and likely slot right back in as the starter, but if his poor season continues, Tye will undoubtedly start to eat into his snaps.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. If you have any sit/start questions or want to reach out just to yell at me about the article, you can hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). Make sure to fit the suggestions to your league rules and your roster. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day full of family, friends and delicious food. Due to the Thanksgiving games the pool of players to choose from for the Sunday Million is thin. This week we are going with a QB/WR stack going up against a team with an abysmal defense but an offense that can put up points, taking value picks at RB and grabbing a TE on a team that is depleted on receivers. Good luck this week!

QB  - Brian Hoyer, HOU - $7,100 vs. NO:  Hoyer returns from a concussion and gets a cake match up against the worst defense in the NFL. This should be a high scoring game so look for fantasy points to be flying around in this one.

RB - Doug Martin, TB - $7,500 at IND:  Indianapolis has been torched by opposing running backs many times this season which makes Martin an extremely high upside play. It also helps that Martin has only had less than 20 touches in a game once in the past 7 weeks.

RB - T.J. Yeldon, JAC - $6,500 vs. SD:  The Chargers run defense is awful and they have also given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season which makes Yeldon a great value play.

WR - DeAndre Hopkins, HOU - $9,400 vs. NO:  Stacking up the red hot Hopkins with Hoyer this week in a game that should see plenty of touchdowns coming through the air.

WR - Brandin Cooks, NO - $7,300 at HOU:  Cooks started the season off slow but he has been putting up double digit fantasy points 4 weeks in a row. Pairing him with the Hoyer/Hopkins stack to increase point upside.

WR - DeSean Jackson, WAS - $6,300 vs. NYG:  Amazing match up for the Redskins burner this week going up against a Giants team giving of the most receiving yards in the league.

TE - Antonio Gates, SD - $5,700 at JAC:  Gates looks to be fully healthy and the Chargers are running thin on receivers which should mean a heavy workload for him against a sub par Jaguars defense.

K - Cairo Santos, KC - $4,900 vs. BUF:  Santos is the only kicker to have at least 6 field goal attempts in a game this year and he's been in that range twice notching games with 6 and 7 attempts.

DEF - Cardinals, ARI - $5,300 at SF:  Easily the best match up for any defense this week, well worth spending top dollar on.

Week 13 looms ahead of us in the fantasy football season and that means that the end is near! What it doesn't mean, is that your options on the waiver wire are running dry. Because of injuries to key players like Rob Gronkowski, Chris Johnson and others, we'll see a few players that have been waiting in the wings all year step up to the plate. Don't lose hope in your team until you're statistically out of the running for a playoff spot, and even then - play spoiler! Check out our week 13 waiver wire picks below:

Quarterback Pickups

Alex Smith (KC @ OAK, 29% Owned): Smith has mostly been the game manager of a run-first offense, as expected, but last week's performance (255 passing yards, 2 TDs, 35 rushing yards) was fairly impressive against the Bills' stout passing defense. Week 13 brings the Chiefs to Oakland, where they'll face a defense giving up 18+ points to quarterbacks. Smith is a high-floor QB that can sometimes find good chemistry with Jeremy Maclin and this is shaping up to be one of those weeks.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ  @ NYG, 23% Owned): Fitzpatrick put up 4 TDs and almost 300 yards against the Dolphins in Week 12, and the Jets' passing attack does not look like it will be slowing down any as they travel to New York to face the Giants. Like the Raiders, the Giants have a porous secondary that has given up some big games this year and a smart guy like Fitzpatrick will surely take advantage of that.

Wide Receiver Pickups

DeVante Parker (MIA vs. BAL, 4% Owned): Dolphins' WR Rishard Matthews went down last week with a chest injury which turned out to be 'multiple fractured ribs' and will sideline him indefinitely. Too bad for Matthews, but it does shine a light on rookie DeVante Parker, who had 4 receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. Parker is extremely talented, but still rough around the edges - still, with Matthews out the Dolphins will need him to play a more prominent role in the offense which should lead to relevant fantasy production. Playing Parker against the Ravens' terrible passing defense should allow for plenty of big play opportunities.

Cecil Shorts (HOU @ BUF, 11% Owned): We love Cecil Shorts here at drinkfive! He was a great PPR play on the Jaguars in garbage time, and the same applies in Houston except that he is also being used in 'gadget' plays like the wildcat touchdown that he threw in Week 11 or the shovel pass that he took in for a touchdown last week. The Texans are showing trust in Shorts by running these sorts of plays more often and I expect to see a few more tricks from Shorts down the stretch.

Running Back Pickups

David Johnson (ARI @ STL, 27% Owned): Arizona RB Chris Johnson has a fractured tibia and Andre Ellington has been diagnosed with turf toe. It's likely, then, that David Johnson will get the chance this week to see if he can shoulder a larger load of carries (his previous high carry total this season was 8, just last week). Looking at his stats so far this year, it's not too much of a stretch to think that the lightning in a bottle (7 TDs on only 54 touches) may escape against the Rams.

Shaun Draughn (SF @ CHI, 28% Owned): When it was first announced that Draughn would be the 49ers lead running back after Carlos Hyde was sidelined, there was a distinct lack of fanfare. After all, Draughn had not really impressed in the previous seasons when he was given opportunities to do so. True, he's on the 49ers anemic offense, but he is the undeniable lead back and is playing nearly every snap. Regardless of how well the team performs, Draughn will continue to trudge ahead and pick up fantasy points each week.

Tight End Pickups

Scott Chandler (NE vs. PHI, 9% Owned): Gronkowski is down with an injury and the latest news from Adam Schefter is that he will miss multiple weeks. After all, the Patriots will not have any issues making it to the playoffs this season and if resting one of their best players will allow for his availability in the post-season then so be it. In the meantime, Chandler will be used as the TE1 on the Patriots offense, which means 4+ targets each week. Chandler was already known as a good red zone target even with Gronkowski on the field, so with this injury he immediately becomes a top 10 TE.

Defense/Special Teams Pickups

Chicago Bears (CHI vs. SF, 4% Owned): The Bears, you say? Well, we've seen some sparks and glimmers of a defense emerging this year and the 49ers are regularly giving up 9+ points per game to opposing defenses. This is not a slam dunk play, but in leagues where people own the better defensive plays the Bears DST should be available and I expect them to rack up the 9+ points without much trouble.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! I hope everyone had a great Turkey Day. Week 12 was another fun one, with things going pretty much according to plan for Thomas Rawls, Buck Allen, Mariota and Amari Cooper, but not so much for Todd Gurley or TJ Yeldon. In most fantasy leagues, week 13 is the last one before the playoffs start, so this week's matchup is likely crucial. If you're fighting to claim a playoff spot or improve your seed, you don't want to leave points on your bench. If you're out of the playoff race, it can be fun to take some chances with the lineup and play spoiler. If you're in contention, my strategy is always to not get too cute with the lineup at this point unless you're in a desperate situation due to injuries. That's why the 'Rookies to Sit' section will be a bit larger than usual this week. With that in mind, let's dive in to what we can expect from the rookies in this all-important week...

Rookies to Start:

RB Thomas Rawls, SEA (Wk. 13: @Min.): Rawls has a tough matchup on paper, but the Steelers were a tougher matchup last week and Rawls put up 14 points (ESPN standard scoring) on 21 touches against them. The Vikings rank 6th in the league in limiting RB points, but they have still allowed double-digit RB points in 8 of their 11 games and rank just 23rd in Football Outsiders' run DVOA defensive efficiency stat. Dominating touches out of the Seattle backfield, Rawls should be a strong RB2 this week despite the matchup.

RB Javorius 'Buck' Allen, BAL (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Allen did what was expected of him on Monday Night Football. He didn't dazzle anyone, but he was productive, picking up 55 yards on 12 carries and 29 and a TD on 4 catches. That's good for 13 points in ESPN leagues, which puts him in a 3-way tie as the RB10 for the week. This week he gets to face the Dolphins, who are hemorrhaging points to opposing RBs lately. The 'Fins have allowed at least 17 points to RBs in their last 6 games, and are giving up an average of 24 per game in that span. While it was a little concerning that Allen conceded some work to Terrence West and played only about 60% of the offensive snaps, if Buck is given the same 16 touches he got against Cleveland, he should be a fine RB2 once again.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Cooper has been finding the consistency he lacked early in the season over the past few weeks. Despite his pathetic 1-4 line against Detroit, he's still reached 79 or more receiving yards in 3 of the last 4 games after failing to reach 50 yards in 4 of his first 7. Kansas City seemed like they had been righting the ship after a horrendous start to the year vs. WRs, but then they let Sammy Watkins go off last week for 6-158-2. KC still ranks second-to-last at limiting opposing WR fantasy points. Amari should be a solid WR2 in a very favorable matchup.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): Mariota failed to throw a TD pass when the Titans visited the Jags two weeks ago (the only QB to do so vs. Jacksonville this season), but he did tally 17 points in that game thanks to a rushing score, and he has Kendall Wright back in action for round 2. The Jaguars rank 30th in pass DVOA, and have allowed 9 TDs in the past 4 games. I look for Mariota to have a much better showing this time around and wind up right on the borderline of the top-10 QBs of the week.

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Obviously if you have Gurley, you probably are going to start him. I'm starting him in the league I have him in. If you were lucky enough to get 3 stud RBs, I just want to point out that Gurley shouldn't be an automatic start this week. Yes, he did gash the Cardinals for 161 total yards in his first start when they met in Arizona and the upside is huge again, but with no passing game to speak of, teams have increasingly been able to sell out to stop Gurley. The Cardinals are a team that already is comfortable leaving their CBs on an island and loading up against the run, so it should be 2nd nature to them this week. They rank 7th in run DVOA, and you may or may not have noticed that Gurley's point total has slipped for 5 consecutive weeks now. Last week might not just be a blip on the radar. I expect Gurley to bounce back a bit this week, but just know there is a lower floor than we thought.

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 13: @StL): Johnson will get an opportunity to start this week for Arizona with CJ2K and Andre Ellington sidelined with a fractured tibia and turf toe, respectively. He's been a versatile playmaker for the Cardinals, finding his way to 8 TDs in 11 games despite very limited workloads. He should see a season-high in touches this week, and the Rams' once scary run defense has been slipping of late. They've allowed an average of 115 rushing yards and 20 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs over the past 4 games, and Johnson only has Stepfan Taylor to compete with for touches. He's a flex option with RB1 upside this week.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Duke seemed to be getting going last week, but McCown's new injury likely won't help him going forward. It's still unclear whether it will be Manziel or Austin Davis who gets the start in week 13, but the matchup sets up pretty well for Duke. The Bengals are a touchdown favorite, so Cleveland will likely play from behind and be throwing plenty. The Bengals have allowed the 2nd most RB receptions in the league, and Johnson has been getting more touches as a runner as well, logging the most carries he's had since week 6 last Monday. Johnson sets up as a decent flex play in PPR, and one with higher upside than usual. Five catches and 60+ scrimmage yards is entirely possible.

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): San Diego looked committed to geting Gordon involved for the first time in a while last week. They even gave him a carry inside the 10-yard line. He still hasn't scored his first touchdown, but with the season essentially over for the Chargers, it can't hurt to get Gordon meaningful playing time and see what he can do. The Broncos are more vulnerable to the run than the pass, allowing an RB rushing TD in 4 of their last 5 games, and I don't expect Denver to blow the Bolts out and force them to throw non-stop. Denver has won by more than 7 just twice in 9 wins. That sets this up as a game where Gordon will have the opportunity to return RB2 value and should be considered as a possible upside flex play.

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Despite the return of Matt Forte last week, Langford still saw reasonable volume and turned in a decent fantasy day at Lambeau. Forte out-touched Langford 16-13, but the rookie matched him in yards (53) and managed to punch in a short touchdown run. Langford could have had an even better day if not for a couple drops in the passing game. If he approaches 15 touches again, that should be plenty to do damage against the 49ers run D that hasn't traveled well. The 49ers are 27th in the league in run DVOA, and in 5 road games they've allowed averages of 140 rush yards and 1.4 rush TDs to RBs, as well as 28 fantasy points per game (allow 15 per game at home). The only thing keeping me from calling Langford a must-start is the fact that he will split work with Forte.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): Diggs has continued to flash great talent, running crisp routes, catching what he can, and being an overall playmaker, but the Vikings' low pass volume is killing his upside. In Diggs's 4-game breakout, the team attempted an average of 34.25 passes per game, with a minimum of 30 in that stretch. In the 4 games since, they've averaged just 27 attempts per game, and have hit 30 or more just once in that period. The Seattle defense is stingy against both the run and the pass, but have allowed 39 WR points to Arizona and 44 to Pittsburgh in games this year. If you play Diggs, you're banking on Seattle forcing the Vikings to throw it more than 30 times. Diggs might make a nice contrarian play in DFS tournaments, but is a low floor WR3 with upside in season-long leagues.

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Rishard Matthews's broken ribs will open the door for Parker to start down the stretch. He hasn't had many chances to flash his potential this year, but he did pull in 4 passes for 80 yards and a score last weekend, even if most of that was in garbage time. The Baltimore defense has allowed 25+ fantasy points to opposing WRs in 4 of the past 5 games, and 4-60 should be a reasonable expectation for Parker in his first start.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Atl.): Winston has shown a safe floor, but he shouldn't be in play as anything more than a lower end QB2 this week. The Falcons' pass defense hasn't been great, ranking 22nd in pass DVOA, but teams haven't been throwing on them a ton lately. During Atlanta's tumble down the standings, teams are beating them by running the ball and playing keep away. In three of their past 4 games, the opposing team has had at least 29 running back carries, and in the past 5, the Falcons allowed more than 200 passing yards just once and more than 14 QB points just once. I wouldn't expect Tampa to deviate from that script. Doug Martin should carry it a bunch. Jameis put up 19 points the first time he faced Atlanta, and I think it would be a positive day if he even approaches that number again.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 13: @Ten.): I'm sure most of you that have Yeldon are at least considering starting him. He typically has a reasonable floor thanks to his volume, and he should again have a floor around 5 points this week, but there just isn't much upside for more. He fell flat in a very plus matchup last week, and at this point he's being pulled in the red zone as well, limiting his TD upside. Yeldon gets a much tougher matchup this week. The Titans allow the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing backs, and have allowed less than 10 points in 4 of the past 5. Yeldon is also unlikely to pad his numbers in the passing game since the Titans have allowed the fewest RB catches and receiving yards and are #1 in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Yeldon put up 82 scrimmage yards in the first go-round, and I expect him to come up short of that amount in this one.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): Since posting his 2nd breakout game of the year, Jones has just 16 touches in 2 games, and he was out touched by Alfred Morris 24-9 in week 12. You simply can't count on him to have volume or to produce, even in plus matchups like the one he has this week. He's scored 70 fantasy points on the year, and 48 of them came in just 2 games. Outside of those games, he's cleared 5 points just once. That type of extreme boom-or-bust player isn't the type of guy you want to trust with the season on the line.

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Ajayi continued to contribute in week 13, chipping in over 50 receiving yards in the blowout loss to the Jets. He now has gained at least 36 yards from scrimmage in each game he's been active. He's still behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart, but he could be a league-winner down the stretch if anything happens to Miller. The Dolphins have a favorable schedule coming up with the Giants, Chargers and Colts during the fantasy playoffs. The Ravens, however, are not a favorable matchup. Baltimore is tied for 6th in fewest RB points allowed. Ajayi shouldn't be started in this one.

RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 13: @TB): There isn't a ton of reasoning needed for this one. Freeman is expected to return from his concussion this week, and despite breaking the century mark in yards last week, Coleman made critical mistakes in a tough loss. He dropped his only two targets, and more importantly he coughed up the ball at the end of a 46-yard run. Freeman should step right back in as the starter. Even if Coleman does see a few extra carries as they ease Devonta back in, this isn't a good matchup. The Bucs are 2nd in run DVOA and allow the 8th fewest RB fantasy points.

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. Hou.): Rex Ryan didn't sound very optimistic about Karlos's chances of playing this week, but he should remain benched even if he does suit up. The Texans' defense has been red hot over the past 4 games, allowing averages of 57 rushing yards and 8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and they've faced a few good ones. They've squared off with the Titans, Bengals, Jets and Saints in those 4 games.

RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): Three carries for 8 yards is an improvement over 4 for negative-3, and interim coach Mike Mularkey keeps talking about wanting to get Cobb more involved, but we'll need to see it before we can believe it. He's still just a deep league stash right now at best.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): Dorial's chances to make an impact in 2015 are dwindling. He caught just 1-of-5 targets for 22 yards last weekend, and was called out publicly by his coach for not making enough plays, and not using his physical advantages as well as he should. The Jaguars are a favorable matchup for DGB, but he's fallen flat in several of those this season. I don't have any confidence that he bests the 3-40 line he put up when these clubs met in Jacksonville a couple weeks ago.

WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): While Crowder's share of snaps hasn't really dropped much with the return of DeSean Jackson, his share of the targets has. I was dead wrong in thinking he'd get back to the 5-50 type lines he was putting up earlier in the year, and his slide down the target pecking order has sapped much of his PPR usefulness. He may still find a decent game or two down the stretch in garbage time, but it'll be hard to count on him any week as a starter.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 13: @NE): Agholor has been a major disappointment this year, but we can attribute some of that to Jordan Matthews lining up pretty much exclusively in the slot. Most of the league's best cover corners don't venture into the slot, so Agholor has had to tangle with most of the top guys Philly has faced. This week, that means he should see a lot of Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler. Butler has developed a swagger from that championship play last February, and he's used it to propel him into being one of the league's best corners this year. Agholor's terrible, awful, no-fun rookie season should continue this week.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 13: @Min.): With the recent emergence of Doug Baldwin, Lockett looks like he will continue to split the leftovers with Jermaine Kearse and Luke Willson. His role could increase a little with Jimmy Graham going down for the year, but I would expect the biggest bump in targets to go to Willson. The Vikings are a tough matchup this week, and Lockett is averaging just 3.3 catches and 39.6 yards per game over his past 5 outings. I love his talent and upside, but his role isn't where it needs to be yet for consistent fantasy production.

WRs Devin Smith & Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 13: @NYG): Enunwa has emerged as the Jets' third WR, and Devin Smith found the end zone last week for the first time in his career and has seen a couple deep targets per game lately, but there isn't enough volume to go around after Marshall and Decker. Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed more than 22 passes just once this year, and the top 2 WRs average about 12 catches per game. That leaves the other WRs, the RBs and the TEs about 10 catches at most to fight over. Enunwa and Smith have combined for just 9 catches in the past 3 games. Both should remain on the waiver wire.

WR JJ Nelson, ARI (Wk. 13: @StL): Nelson had another nice game in week 12, but Michael Floyd should be close to full strength for this one, which should limit JJ's snaps. The Rams have allowed just 5 passes of 40 or more yards in 11 games, so the odds Nelson gets a long ball are not great. He's still a great dynasty stash, but he shouldn't be started this week.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. KC): There are way too many reasonable TE options out there to consider Walford if your starting TE is hurt. Kansas City has allowed the fewest receptions and yards to opposing TEs all year, and just 2 TDs to them. They've allowed 7 TE fantasy points total over the past 5 games.

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. NYJ): Tye has played great the past 2 weeks, but this isn't the week to fire him up. It's too big a risk if you have anything at stake this week, especially with guys like Scott Chandler, Vance McDonald, Kyle Rudolph and Brent Celek recently emerging as realistic options. The Jets have allowed 50+ yards to an opposing TE just twice all year (Gronk and Charles Clay), and over the past 5 games they've allowed just 10 total TE points. It isn't quite as impressive as the Chiefs' 7, but still a miniscule number. Tye is yet to score a touchdown and has been getting by on volume over the past couple of weeks. That volume might not be there in such a difficult matchup.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 13: vs. GB): I'm sure most fantasy players are still gun-shy about firing up Abdullah, especially if you drafted him and have seen how bad it can get, but things have been turning around for the former Cornhusker. He's avoided fumbling the ball for 5 consecutive games now, and he had 30 combined touches in the last 2, averaging 60.5 scrimmage yards per game in those contests. The Packers' run D, while improved of late, is still just 18th in run DVOA, and I expect Abdullah to get right around 15 touches again and turn in a borderline RB3 effort. You could do worse if you're desperate.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 13: @NO): Philly Brown may return this week, but Funchess may have stolen his job while he's been out. It's true Funch caught just 2 passes on Turkey Day, but Cam completed just 16 passes in that game and did target Funchess in the end zone twice. The Saints' pass defense woes are well documented (19 pass TDs allowed in last 5 games), and Funchess is certainly a threat to find paydirt against that rag tag group. He should be on the WR3 radar in most non-PPR leagues.

WR Rashad Greene, JAX (Wk. 13: @Ten.): Hurns is out this week, and Greene caught 7 passes in week one on an absurd 13 targets. He missed a lot of time with injury, but has worked himself back into the mix over the past couple weeks. The Titans have really struggled to defend non-WR1s, ranking 31st in pass DVOA against WR2s and 30th against all other non-number 1's. The Titans are coming off a week where they just gave up 39 points to the Raiders' WRs, including 2 TDs to their 3rd WR Seth Roberts. Blake Bortles is a bit of a turnover machine, but he also throws for about 270 yards and 2 TDs per game. There is a lot of upside for Greene as a punt play in DFS.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make the right moves with your rookies to propel you to the playoffs or at least to a victory this week. If you have any specific start/sit questions or any other fantasy questions, or just want to yell at me and call me an idiot, feel free to reach out via twitter (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.