Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The end of the road for most fantasy teams is this week's championship game. Listening to the right advice can make or break your team and I'd like to try to help you across the finish line by providing you with a few great plays for Week 16. As always, quite a few guys that may have been helping you throughout the season are probably headed to IR or underperforming at this point in the season. So who do we turn to? Let's find out..

QB:

The drop-off for QB ownership is a steep one. Right around Andy Dalton, QBs are either quite a bit better or quite a bit worse. Actually, let's include Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez in that.. we can call it the 'QB Triangle'. If one of these guys is your starter (in 1, or 2 QB leagues), you've got serious problems to address. Although I think that Johnny Manziel (37% owned) will have a good performance eventually, he looked sufficiently bad for me to avoid him for the remainder of the season at least. Alex Smith (37% owned) on the other hand, had a great game with 297 yards and 2 TDs against the Raiders. Smith has been a consistent member of the drinkfive waiver wire list and should continue to do well against the Steelers pass defense which is still susceptible to big plays on the outside.  Smith has more points this season than Kaepernick or Dalton and almost as many as Newton and Romo. If you need help at the position, don't sleep on him.

WR:

Much like the 'QB' triangle, we have a similar collection of players that should not be owned in Cordarelle Patterson, Denard Robinson and We Welker all hovering around the 50% mark. But can we find some real talent at the position if we dig a little deeper? Well, once more, Charles Johnson (32% owned) had a good game and put up 5 receptions for 72 yards against the great Lions pass defense. Remember that he's a rookie, but with this year's draft class.. why not another standout receiver? Clearly the Vikes' #1 guy at this point, look for a similar performance but with a great chance of a TD against a slipping Dolphins pass defense this week. Harry Douglas (27% owned) is an interesting pickup if he's still available in your league, because he had a great game and Julio Jones may be out again this week. Although Coach Mike Smith says he expects him to suit up - he is not to be trusted. I keep hearing Cecil Shorts (41% owned) and Stedman Bailey (14% owned) but I don't believe it and you shouldn't either. Both guys are too unpredictable this year and on teams that are equally difficult to predict.

RB:

Now that we're comparing what players exist around that 50% mark at each position, let's look at RBs. Got any guesses? Due to dual-eligibility, Denard Robinson is here again of course, but not including Robinson we have Doug Martin, Ben Tate and Terrance West. What a great collection of running backs that is! The decline in ownership is much less steep but we can definitely pull some talent out of the pool here. Carlos Hyde (35% owned) was running very well last week before hurting his back on a play. Looks like he'll play ahead of Gore at this point, though. He is worth a pickup in every league, even if you're not going to start him.. just so your opponent can't start him against you. With Gore likely out with a concussion, Hyde will monopolize the carries if he plays. Kerwynn Williams (18% owned) was an unlikely candidate to perform well last week due to a committee backfield and good Rams' rushing defense, but he still went off for 75 yards on 15 carries and caught 2 passes for 11 yards. Grice looks to be a non-factor and Stepfan Taylor will split the carries but Williams is the better bet for a TD. Bad news? Seattle. And they've been playing well. I like Williams but would stay away from this situation unless you're desperate.

TE:

Yeah I know, you just can't wait.. ok, I'll tell you. The 50%'ers at TE this season are Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph and Charles Clay. Wow, a couple of those guys were definitely taken pretty high up in drafts this preseason. Moving on, Mychal Rivera (26% owned) is still not owned in many leagues this year and presents a good option about 1/2 of the time. Better in PPR leagues because of the volume he gets, Rivera is still a good bit better than the TEs owned less than him. Jermaine Gresham (9% owned) just scored a TD last week and has been getting consistent targets all year. Also, he plays against Denver who has given up quite a few points to opposing TEs. Unfortunately, he was inactive for last week's game against the Browns even though he was warming up on the field. Apparently some kind of toe injury, reports say that Gresham should be starting again against the Broncos in Week 16. I actually like him a lot here if you think he'll be a go.

Defense / Special Teams:

Here I like  Carolina (vs. CLE), Miami (vs. MIN), Green Bay (@TB) and Jacksonville (vs. TEN)

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts

Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8^th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.

Both of us said that Ryan would go over 21 points, and he did! 22.10 points total with 310 yards passing, 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to PIT. I think most people expected a little better out of Ryan, but without the services of Julio Jones, you should be very happy with the 22 points he did get.

Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts

Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is aMF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?

Dave said he'd stay under 14 points, I said he'd go over 14. Seriously, Dave? You bet against Demaryius Thomas and you drink the consequences! Thomas had a ho-hum 6 receptions for 123 yards and 1 TD in the Broncos win at San Diego. While Peyton Manning didn't exactly light the world on fire, he is pointed back in the right direction and faces the Bengals on Monday night in week 16.

Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts

It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenomKeenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.

Dave went with the over here, and I stayed under. Floyd had a typical game of 7 targets and 3 receptions, but he could only turn that into 34 yards and did not find the end zone. Floyd might have some increased value for week 16 as there have been whispers that Keenan Allen will land on the IR. Either way, the matchup with the 49ers is not a tempting one. Dave drinks five!

Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI –22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts

Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.

We both said he'd go over 12 points, and while Bell had a decent game, he did not go over. His 62 yards on 15 carries and 4 receptions for 41 yards only nets him 10.30 points, which isn't bad for an RB2, but doesn't meet our projection, so we drink! Bell gets the Bears in Week 16, so fire him up against the most turbulent team in the league.

Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts

Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.

Both of us went with the trend here (Dave actually did with every one of them) and technically, we win! Vereen had 5 rushing yards, a TD and 12 yards receiving. He's clearly not in the mix enough to be fantasy worthy, and his 7.70 points keep him just below the line we had set. His 7 total touches in this game make him a must-sit, even with a decent matchup against the Jets.

Finally, we bet on a bomber for the next show. I bet that my guy, Donte Moncrief, would score over 8 points. He finished the game with 0 points on 4 targets. Good times, drink up, Dave!

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Andrew Luck: Wk 13 vs WAS - 33.80 pts, Wk 14 @ CLE - 25.46 pts, Wk 15 vs HOU - 16.28 pts

It's the last week of fantasy football, so who cares about the little guys? We want to know about the best of the best, the guys who got us here! Luck has been trending down, technically. He's averaging just over 25 points per game on the season, and last week against a mediocre Houston defense, he only managed to get his team in the end zone twice on 13 possessions. This week he goes to Dallas, a team that needs this win a lot more than the Colts do. We'll set Luck's line at his average points for the season - 25 points.

Emmanuel Sanders: Wk 13 @ KC - 7.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF - 6.90 pts, Wk 15 @ SD - 5.30 pts

Sanders is another guy who you are generally starting if you have made it this far, but his numbers are starting to be alarming. Not only is he trending down, but he is consistently low while doing it. In fact, he's on a slow decent for the last 6 games. This may be proof that there actually isn't room for multiple receivers if the Broncos' passing game isn't firing on all cylinders. This is doubly true when the running game is working as well as it is right now. So, is this the Broncos finding another way to win that they're going to stick with, or are they going to bounce back somehow against the team that gives up the 2nd fewest points to opposing WR's. Sanders is averaging 12.5 per game this year and the Bengals give up about 17 pts per game to all WR's. Let's just set the line at our base we agreed upon last week of 10 points.

Odell Beckham Jr.: Wk 13 @ JAX - 9.40 pts, Wk 14 @TEN - 19.90 pts, Wk 15 vs WAS - 30.30 pts

Beckham is trending up, what a surprise. Let me take this moment to gush over his numbers. Over only 10 games, he has 71 receptions on 97 targets, catching 73.2% of the passes thrown his way. He has 972 yards and 9 touchdowns. This makes him the 2nd best player in terms of points per game (15.27). Beckham has been awesome this year, and while the Rams seem scary, their pass defense isn't that great. As long as Manning stays upright, Beckham should be ok. We'll set his target right as his average of 15 points.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts, Wk 14 vs PIT - 6.70 pts, Wk 15 @ CLE - 27.20 pts

Hill is a product of the work he gets, plain and simple. In 5 games with 15 or more carries, he has at least 15 points in all of those games. 1 point per touch is a damn nice average if you ask me. Hill is once again trending up after Giovani Bernard returned from injury, but was ineffective. It appears that Hill is slated to be the starter down the stretch, which should mean lots of work for him, but it's not guaranteed. 2 questions - Do you start him over Gio, and will he break his season average of 11 points?

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 16 and we will recap the results next week.

Following the NFL during the offseason can be a long and tedious pursuit, interrupted by brief moments of excitement when your team signs someone. Now that most of the moves have been made, there’s little left to do but wait for training camp and preseason to start. With our downtime, we’re looking at each team, one division at a time, to look at the fantasy impact of each relevant player on each team and how their value has changed with the team’s changes. This time around, it’s the NFC North.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 6/9/15, NFC North Spotlight) 

Green Bay Packers:

Add/Re-sign –

Randall Cobb, (4 years for $40 mil)

Scott Tolzien, (1 year, $1.35 Mil)

Kyle Sebetic, Safety, from the Giants (their ONLY FA signing this offseason)

Ty Montgomery WR, (3^rd round draft pick)

Departures –

Jarrett Boykin, (Panthers)

Matt Flynn, (Patriots)

DuJuan Harris, (Vikings)

Brandon Bostick, (Vikings via waivers)

Issues:

The Packers never seem to add many, if any, impactful players through free agency. Nearly their entire roster is built on draft picks (I believe at one point last year, their only player they didn’t draft was Julius Peppers). The Pack had a trip to the Super Bowl already booked, but Russell Wilson had other plans for them.

Fantasy-wise, there isn’t a whole lot changing on the Packers. The only notable departure is Jarrett Boykin, who was only a WR3 of questionable weekly output last year. Expect Rodgers, Cobb and Nelson to all return to the top 10 of their positions (maybe top 15 for the WR’s, but Nelson and Cobb did finish 2^nd and 6^th last year, respectively). Look for Davante Adams to pick up the WR3 work, and I wouldn’t expect much production out of the TE position, as is tradition in Green Bay lately.

Eddie Lacy is once again a first round talent, and despite his slow start to last season, still finished 6^th overall for points, finding the end zone a satisfying 13 times. Last year, the top 4 fantasy players on the Packers were probably better than any 4 you could find on any other team. In standard scoring, Rodgers & Nelson finished 2^nd and Cobb and Lacy finished 6^th. That is reminiscent of the Broncos from the 2013. While that team did have a slight drop-off, they did not disappoint when it came time to tally up the points at the end of the year. I expect that Green Bay will be able to repeat their success of last year.

Detroit Lions:

Add/Re-sign –

Jeremy Ross WR, (re-sign)

Lance Moore WR, (signed to 1 year contract)

Ameer Abdullah RB, (2^nd round pick)

Haloti Ngata DT, (acquired in trade from Baltimore)

Departures –

Reggie Bush, (cut, now on SF)

Ndamukong Suh, (left as a FA, signed with Miami)

Issues:

The Lions made the playoffs last year, but were the victim of Dez Bryant and Tony Romo making ridiculous highlight reel plays (which they fell victim to the following week). It’s hard to say that they have made enough moves to help even improve their team, let alone pass the Packers for the division in 2015.

Matt Stafford will still be a solid QB1, Calvin Johnson will feel like a steal when he’s not the first WR off the board in your draft (he’s still WR1 talent) and Golden Tate should probably wind up starting every week. Tate had 99 catches last year, with Megatron (71 rec) missing only 3 games (though he was a decoy in a few he did play).

The RB situation is still sketchy, though removing Bush at least removes one of the more knee-jerk options that were available. Joique Bell, Theo Riddick (3^rd downs) and Ameer Abdullah will probably split most carries to start the season, with the stronger back, if one emerges, getting a larger percentage of the carries as the season goes on. This is going to change a lot, but with a pass first team like the Lions, I wouldn’t waste too high of a draft pick on one of their rotating RB’s. The one exception to this is if Bell keeps sliding into the doghouse. If so, go for Abdullah, but remember, temper your expectations on rookies!

Their TE’s Pettigrew, Ebron and Fauria can be fun, but none are THE guy, so stay away from them as every week starters. Their D/ST should still be strong, adding Ngata and losing Suh, but I prefer streaming D’s anyways, so don’t draft them high.

Minnesota Vikings

Add/Re-sign –

Matt Asiata RB, (re-sign 1 year)

Shaun Hill QB, (2 year 6.5 mil, #2 guy now)

Mike Wallace WR, (via trade with Miami)

Du Juan Harris RB, (FA via GB)

Brandon Bostick TE, (waiver via GB)

MyCole Pruitt (TE) and Stefon Diggs (WR) are their highest offensive (fantasy) draft picks, from the 5^th round

Departures –

Christian Ponder, (OAK)

Greg Jennings, (released, signed by Miami)

Issues:

The story of the Vikings early in 2015 is all about the return of Adrian Peterson. I know I wouldn’t want to line up opposite Purple Jesus after he’s been kept out of football for an entire year. He’s probably in the best shape and health of his life and will make an immediate impact on this team, greater than all of their signings combined.

Last year’s rookie QB, Teddy Bridgewater, will have a few more tools at his disposal and should take another step from last year. His rookie campaign was average – throwing more TD’s than INT’s does show promise going forward. Bridgewater won’t enter August as a QB 1 or 2, but could easily finish the year as a strong QB2, possibly approaching or exceeding the Andy Dalton Line.

AP is clearly the only RB to bother with on the team. I don’t even think I’d entertain a handcuff in this case, as superhumans don’t tend to get hurt like us mortals. Their WR core is much more of a toss-up. Between Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson and the field, I really have no good feel for who will emerge as the consistent WR on their team. It could wind up looking like the Seahawks where none of them are viable fantasy options, due to a conservative passing game and spreading the ball around when they do throw it. Kyle Rudolph at TE might end up being the best receiver on the team stats-wise.

Chicago Bears

Add/Re-sign –

John Fox, (head coach) and Ryan Pace, (GM)

Zach Miller TE, (1 year extension, played well in 2014 preseason, hurt in the preseason)

Jimmy Clausen QB, (1 year extension)

Jacquizz Rodgers RB, (1 year, from Atlanta)

Kevin White WR, (1^st round, 9^th overall)

Eddie Royal WR, (Reunited with Cutler)

Departures –

Mark Trestman (good riddance!)

Brandon Marshall (even gooder riddance!)

Issues:

The Bears have many issues they’re carrying over from 2014, but they will look like a different team in 2015. Any time a new regime takes control, they give everything a make-over, especially when the previous season was a disappointing (too light?) 5-11.

Jay Cutler has been on the team for 6 years now, and he still feels like he needs to somehow win over Chicago fans to feel comfortable. If it hasn’t happened by now, it’s not happening. Cutler is the best QB the Bears have the opportunity to start this year, and probably next year too, so just get used to it and hope he doesn’t lead the league in INT’s again. Fewer passes should help Cutler, as in 2015 he had his most pass attempts since he joined the Bears in 2009.

The Bears instantly addressed the departure of Brandon Marshall in the draft, picking Kevin White from West Virginia 9^th overall. He should be able to have a near immediate impact and could be going in redraft leagues as a WR3/WR4, but we’ll see how he fits in a few preseason games first. Alshon Jeffery immediately moves into a WR1/WR2 position, and Marquess Wilson has some fantasy value as well.

It remains to be seen if Martellus Bennett is going to throw more tantrums for whatever reason. If he settles down, he could be a TE1 in a league where the drop off after the first 5 or so TE’s is very steep. If not, Zach Miller might emerge as an option, since Cutler does seem to like throwing to the TE. Matt Forte will continue to carry the load for Chicago, and even though he felt overvalued last year, he finished 4^th overall for RB scoring. Is he the new Frank Gore (a guy who should be dropping off, but never does)?