Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

12/16/14, December 16 - Fantasy Championship Week, It's All Good

It’s championship week! Get HYPED! I’m talking the Mountain vs the Red Viper hyped. Hopefully your game has a happier ending though. This week Dave and I broke down some fun stories from across the NFL (staying mercifully away from Johnny Manziel). We hit Dave’s waiver wire picks, discussing the need for a handcuff to Demarco Murray due to his hand surgery this past Monday. (As of this posting, he has been practicing and is expected to play).

We also went over the trends that we looked at last week and predicted the track of new ones. We said Andrew Luck would stay up, Emmanuel Sanders will bounce back and put up points, Odell Beckham Jr. will continue his incredible production and should at least reach his season average of 15 pts against the Rams and finally, we picked Jeremy Hill as a candidate to stay hot, over Giovani Bernard.

Finally, we took a look at all of our season long bets. It’s time, or almost time, to pay up on most of them and the rest will have an exciting finish in store for them. Be sure to check back next week when we recap the fantasy season.

Make sure to join us next week, live at 9pm CST on blogtalk radio (blogtalkradio.com/drinkfive). Feel free to send us your questions and we'll answer them on the podcast! Ask us on our Facebook page, follow us on twitter (@drinkfive), or send us an e-mail to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also grab the podcast on iTunes.

10/21/14, Wow.. the Jaguars can win, after all!

Welcome to week 8! We're more than halfway through the fantasy regular season and it's been an awesome ride, as is tradition. We started out the show going over some of the headlines from last week - check out my breakdown of Week 7.

We started a new segment where we will be betting on trends. Each week, we will spot a few trends and decide if the trends will keep going, or if the player will buck the trend. We will bet 5 drinks on each outcome. This week our results are: Denard Robinson - continue trending up; Zac Stacy - Jason says he'll score over 8, Dave says he'll trend down; Jay Cutler - continue trending down, less than 20 pts for sure; Allen Robinson - continues to trend up, around 12 pts again; Justin Hunter - continues to trend down; Travis Kelce - continues to trend down, less than 6 points; New England D/ST - Dave says 10 or more points, Jason says they will score less.

We also fielded questions from the peanut gallery this week to help you with waiver wire and start/sit decisions. To ask questions that we will answer on the show, tweet us @drinkfive, hit us up on our  Facebook page, or shoot us an e-mail. Finally, we placed a bet for next week's beers. In Dave's eternal struggle to not have to buy a Zach Ertz jersey, he is betting against him again this week. Dave has Jordan Reed in standard scoring against my Zach Ertz. May the loser buy fine beers and the winner enjoy them mightily.

Make sure to join us next week, live at 9pm CST on blogtalk radio (blogtalkradio.com/drinkfive). Feel free to send us your questions and we'll answer them on the podcast! Ask us on our Facebook page, follow us on twitter (@drinkfive), or send us an e-mail to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also grab the podcast on iTunes.

11/18/14, Approaching the Playoffs, Fantasy Trends

This week on the show, we enjoyed some fine scotch. Glenlivet 12 year to be exact, and a fine scotch it is. We started right into grading last week's trend predictions. Dave and I assigned plenty of drinks to the audience, and we drank a few for ourselves as well. On to this week's predictions:

Matt Stafford has been trending down, Dave and I split on him with Dave saying he'll go over 18 and I say he'll go under. Golden Tate's trend has mirrored Stafford's in many ways, and we've split on this player just like before. Dave says Tate will go over 11 and I say he'll stay under 11 points.  Torrey Smith is the first player we agree on, both of us saying he'll go over 10 points. Andre Ellington was another split, Dave betting on the TD and going over 11, while I stay under 11 points. Mark Ingram we agreed on, both of us saying he'll stay under 14 points. Martellus Bennett is another guy who we think will continue his down trend, staying under 7 points.

You can check out our article breaking down all of the trends, and be sure to check in next week before the show to see the results. Finally this week, we talked about waiver wire pickups and answered some questions from the peanut gallery. Please keep the questions coming!

Make sure to join us next week, live at 9pm CST on blogtalk radio (blogtalkradio.com/drinkfive). Feel free to send us your questions and we'll answer them on the podcast! Ask us on our Facebook page, follow us on twitter (@drinkfive), or send us an e-mail to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also grab the podcast on iTunes.

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Ryan Tannehill: Wk 10 @ DET – 11.28 pts, Wk 11 vs BUF – 16.80 pts, Wk 12 @ DEN – 27.6 pts

We tend to always look at the downward trends, but let’s start off with an upward trend. Tannehill has gotten through a tough stretch and had a great showing last week against a tough Denver defense. Tannehills remaining schedule is split. This week he faces the Jets, then has to face Baltimore and New England, before getting Minnesota in Week 16. Our question, though, is for Week 13. Will Tannehill score 20 or more points (yahoo projection)? The Jets are giving up 21 points/game to opposing QB’s.

Both of us predicted he would go over 20 points in a game against a weak Jets secondary. Well, what better way to start off the segment than by both drinking? Tannehill really struggled, but came out with a win. 235 yards passing with 1 INT and adding only 13 yards on the ground is not going to cut it when it comes to fantasy, but this was his low point of the year and I do not expect it to be repeated.

John Brown: Wk 10 vs STL – 13.30 pts, Wk 11 vs DET – 6.90, Wk 12 @ SEA – 6.10 pts

Brown has really been flashy for the Cardinals, but not consistent at all. He is very touchdown dependent so far this year. With Fitzgerald out of the lineup, it was expected that Brown would pick up the slack, but that wasn’t the case last week. Brown has a plus matchup this week in Atlanta, but then faces KC, @ STL and SEA to finish off your fantasy season. This guy has fool’s gold written all over him. We’ll set the over/under at 8 points.

John Brown's dependence on the TD is very apparently and we both picked him to go under 8 points for the week. HIs 2 catches for 40 yards against Atlanta will only get him halfway to our line. Until there is a proper QB in Arizona, none of their WR's are every week starts. Everybody else drinks five!

LeSean McCoy: Wk 10 vs CAR – 7.70 pts, Wk 11 @ GB – 10.60 pts, Wk 12 vs TEN – 19.10 pts

McCoy has definitely not lived up to his expectations this season. He had an ADP of 1, but is 14^th overall for RB points.McCoy struggled at the beginning of the year with a constantly changing offensive line, it has really solidified in the last few weeks. McCoy is trending up, but has not broken 20 points in a single game all season. With Sproles in there vulturing touchdowns and Polk spelling him, is McCoy ever going to return to his former status as the top back in the league? This week he faces Dallas on Thanksgiving, a team with a vastly improved (though still middle of the pack) run defense. We’ll set the over/under at 12 points.

Both of us predicted that he would go over 12 points and he was the Real McCoy this week, carrying the ball 25 times for 159 yards and 1 TD. His 1 fumble kept him below the 20 point mark (19.9), but I suppose I can live with that. McCoy now finds himself in the top 10 RB's (10) for the season. Everybody drinks!

Frank Gore: Wk 10 @ NO – 14.30 pts, Wk 11 @ NYG – 9.40 pts, Wk 12 vs WAS – 1.60 pts

Gore is pointed in the wrong direction. Though he’s had plenty of work the last three weeks, 55 carries total, he’s only managed 212 yards in that stretch which is good for only 3.85 yards per carry. Getting a solid 18+ carries per game should spell success for a back like Gore, but the 49ers offense has really struggled lately. Gore plays host to Seattle this week, and has games coming up in Oakland, Seattle and home against the Chargers. We’ll set the over/under on Gore at 8.50 points.

Both of us said Gore would stay under 8.5 (Dave says he never scores over 12 points in his life). I think Dave might be on to something. 10 carries for 28 yards, 2 targets for 1 catch and 8 yards receiving does not make a good game. 3.6 points total is just brutal, and Gore has only 4 games in double digits all year. He's a sit for me the rest of the season.

Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts

Wright had a great game against the Lions, outscoring even the great Gronk. Why do I include a player such as Tim Wright in this list? Frankly, I don’t like starting tight ends that are going to catch a TD or do nothing, so why is he relevant? He is currently the most picked up TE in yahoo leagues. If you need to pick up a TE, you probably need to win since it’s Week 13. Tim Wright cannot be relied upon to be the guy who helps you win. Instead look elsewhere for guys like Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Cameron or Delanie Walker if you have to fill a need at TE. We’ll set the over/under at 6.10 points for Wright.

Dave has a rather specific prediction that says he will score between 6.1 and 8.0, I said under 6.1. Wright had just one target in an exciting game, netting him just 12 yards and no touchdowns. Wright is only played for his TD scoring (6 on the season) and really is only a last minute option. Dave drinks five for this one

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 13 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Joe Flacco: Wk 10 vs TEN - 10.56 pts, Wk 12 @ NO - 13.92 pts, Wk 13 vs SD - 23.30 pts

Flacco hasn't been lighting up the world since his 5 TD game back in week 6, but his 23+ points against SD is the third time he's gone over 20 points this season. Flacco will go to Miami for Week 14, a team that is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing QB's. Flacco is clearly in the QB2 conversation, but does he need to be a sit this week? We will set the line at 14 points.

Mike Evans: Wk 11 vs ATL - 32.90 pts, Wk 12 @ CHI - 10.70 pts, Wk 13 vs CIN - 4.90 pts

Evans is a member of this year's stellar WR rookie crop and was on his way to rookie of the year consideration for a while there. He scored 86.5 points in a 4 week stretch (9-12) and had 6 TD's in that time. Last week he struggled, catching only 4 of 9 targets for 49 yards against the Bengals. This week it gets even harder, playing the Lions in Detroit. We'll set Evans's line at 11 points - can McCown get him the ball enough?

DeSean Jackson: Wk 11 vs TB - 3.70 pts, Wk 12 @ SF - 3.90 pts, Wk 13 @ IND - 14.40 pts

Jackson is the victim of one of the more volatile QB situations in the league. The Redskins have had 3 starting QB's this season, though it does appear that they will stick with Colt McCoy for the remainder of the season. This is good news for Jackson as he has 14 points per game when McCoy starts and he's under 10 per game on average when he does not. This week, Jackson faces the Rams whom are giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR's. Can Jackson keep his trend going upward? We will set the line for him at 12 points.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 11 @ NO - 16.50 pts, Wk 12 @ HOU - 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts

Side note before we start, the Bengals just had 3 road games and won all 3 of them, a first in franchise history. Hill has been a big part of two of those wins, racking up over 30 points in the first two games, but only carrying the ball 13 times for 40 yards last week (3.1 ypc). That's quite disappointing, compared to the 4.9 ypc he had going into the game. Hill criticized the play calling, his OC promptly called him out, saying he needs to break more tackles and block better. Perhaps the fire has been lit under Hill's ass and he has a home game against the Steelers this Sunday to show he deserves time on the field instead of Giovani Bernard. We'll set the line for Hill at 10 this week, due to the Steelers only giving up 16 to opposing RB's and Gio getting back into the swing of things.

Rashad Jennings: Wk 11 vs SF - 6.70 pts, Wk 12 vs DAL - 12.00 pts, Wk 13 @ JAX 21.40 pts

Jennings returned to the Giants lineup three weeks ago, and has been trending up ever since. His first game was shaky against the 49ers, but since then has been the RB2 you expected him to be. Andre Williams is basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes and all but being a goal line back for the Giants. Jennings will see the bulk of the work going forward, as his 26 carries in Jacksonville can attest. We'll set the line at 12 points for his Week 14 matchup in Tennessee.

Jason Witten: Wk 10 @ JAX - 9.30 pts, Wk 12 @ NYG - 9.00 pts, Wk 13 vs PHI - 0.80 pts

Tight Ends don't really seem to trend like QB/WR/RB, but let's give it a shot anyway. Witten has been a disappointment all season and while 30 yards and a TD in weeks 10 and 12 may seem acceptable, those are the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring weeks this season. Witten plays the "soft enough for a bear in the woods" Chicago Bears defense, so can we expect 9 points, or is he a definite sit?

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 14 and we will recap the results next week.