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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now less than one week away from the regular season kickoff, and I’m sure you’re all like me and getting antsy for some real NFL action that counts. Today, I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class and turning my focus to the wide receivers. If you missed my previous fact sheets, you can find them here (QB), here (RB) and here (TE), but today we’re looking at the rookie wide receiver class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie receiver class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for the 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

 

FACT:

In half-PPR scoring, there were 3 rookie wide receivers who finished in the top-20 scorers at the position in 2020. In the five years prior to that, there were a total of 3 top-20 WR performances by rookies.

 

What it means:

We were spoiled last season when it came to rookie receivers. Justin Jefferson set the rookie receiving yardage record, Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb posted top-20 seasons, Tee Higgins posted a top-30 season, and Brandon Aiyuk clocked in as the WR33. No other season in the past 6 years had more than one rookie finish in the top-20 or more than 2 finish in the top-30. The 2021 class comes with a lot of expectations, with three top-10 draft picks among 10 receivers drafted in the first two rounds…but the answer to the question of who this year’s Justin Jefferson will be is probably no one. That doesn’t mean you should fade the entire class of receivers, but I’d avoid selecting any of this year’s rookie wide receivers among the top-24 taken in your drafts.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 27 wide receivers selected in the top-10 overall NFL picks. Not one of them had a catch rate higher than 58.0% as a rookie.

The lowest league-average completion percentage in any season in that span was 58.2% in 2000.

 

What it means:

Team’s drafting in the top-10 picks of the NFL draft typically have a bad QB, or at least a young developing QB at the helm, and it can take time for a bad or inexperienced quarterback to get on the same page with an inexperienced receiver. The receivers picked in this range typically fit the same ‘alpha’ WR archetype. Nearly all of them are big, physical wide receivers who are threats down the field rather than possession receivers who thrive on short-yardage throws that are completed at a higher rate. Only 3 of the 27 receivers were shorter than 6’1”. Interestingly enough, two of this year’s three top-10 WR picks - Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith – are shorter than that.

A lower catch rate isn’t a death knell for a receiver, but it’s not great in PPR formats, as they’ll need to put up more yards per catch and/or more touchdowns to make up for the lack of receptions. There are reasons to be excited about each member of the trio, but if you see projections putting any of them above 1,000 receiving yards or finishing as a top-12 WR, take them with a very big grain of salt. I would wait until outside the top-30 WRs to draft any of the three.

 

FACT:

Elijah Moore’s 10.75 receptions per game in 2020 are the most by any power conference-wide receiver in a season since 1990 (minimum 8 games played).

 

What it means:

If you’re looking for the rookie receiver who is best positioned to be a valuable fantasy player in year one, look no further than Elijah Moore, especially in PPR leagues. Moore is being drafted 4-5 full rounds after Jaylen Waddle (who is being drafted 3-4 rounds after Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith), but he has as clear a path to 100 targets as any other rookie. With Jamison Crowder on the Covid reserve list, Moore should be in line for a big role in week 1 opposite Corey Davis, and I don’t expect him to look back. Jaylen Waddle will have Devante Parker and Will Fuller in front of him. DeVonta Smith is in an offense that should lean heavily on the run game and will target their two tight ends a bunch. Ja’Marr Chase has struggled to stand out in camp and has two proven receivers in front of him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Rashod Bateman will open the season on injured reserve with a groin injury. Even if he returns by week 4, it’ll take time to build up to a full workload. Moore could push Corey Davis for the Jets’ team lead in targets this season if he performs well early in the season. He has a ton of upside and can be had with one of your last picks in the draft. I’d much rather draft Moore late than take one of Smith/Waddle/Chase at their current ADPs.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, 5 wide receivers have tallied 100 or more receptions as a freshman in college. One of them is Rondale Moore. Three of the other 4 have finished an NFL season as a top-12 PPR wide receiver. Two of them have finished a season as the overall WR1.

 

What it means:

The players to accomplish the feat were Rondale, Michael Crabtree, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and Richie James. Obviously, James hasn’t done much at the NFL level, but the other 3 are pretty lofty company. Rondale isn’t a guy I would be targeting in redraft formats outside of a late dart throw, but he’s got a ton of upside in dynasty leagues. He’s going to have to fight for playing time in year one with veterans DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk around, but that could give you an opportunity to get him for a bargain later this season if the manager who drafted him gets impatient or frustrated. He’s a perfect fit for the Cardinals’ spread attack and has a legitimate 100-catch upside at the NFL level once he ascends the depth chart. Monitor his performance early in the season, and make an offer for him if he isn’t playing a bunch in the first month or two of the season.

 

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 53 NFL wide receivers to catch a pass that weighed less than 170 pounds (per pro-football-reference.com). Only 4 of them have caught for 800 or more yards in a season.

Tutu Atwell weighed in at 149 pounds at his last NFL medical check before the NFL Draft.

 

What it means:

Atwell’s diminutive size may limit him to being a gadget player or return man in the NFL. The 149-pound number is a little bit for shock value here – Atwell reportedly weighed in around 160 pounds not long after the draft, but even at 160 his historical outlook isn’t great. The last time a player under 170 pounds caught for 800+ yards in a season was James Jett in 1997. As the league evolves into a more pass-heavy game with more spread offenses, smaller players like Atwell should have a better chance to succeed, but Atwell is on the extreme end of that scale. There are other small-ish receivers in this class that were drafted early this year – 7 of the 10 WRs drafted in the first two rounds don’t have the prototypical ‘alpha WR’ size – but the lightest any of the other 6 were clocked was DeVonta Smith at 166 pounds at the same medical combine where Atwell was at 149.

Tutu does have several things working in his favor. Sean McVay’s offenses have consistently been among the best in the league, Matt Stafford is an upgrade at QB with a strong deep ball, and Atwell has wheels and 2^nd-round draft capital. He has a fighting chance, but I’d like to see him show something at the NFL level before buying in. I’d be avoiding him entirely in redraft leagues and treating him as a late flyer in dynasty.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 37 wide receivers drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft that reached 24 years old prior to or during their rookie season. Only 10 of them reached 500 or more receiving yards, and 11 failed to catch for even 100 yards as a rookie.

 

What it Means:

D’Wayne Eskridge probably isn’t worth even a late dart throw in redraft leagues. I love Eskridge as a player, and as someone that went to Western Michigan, Eskridge is a guy that I want to root for, but he’s facing long odds to be a useful piece of fantasy teams early in his career. We’ve seen some recent successes from older rookie receivers – Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Cooper Kupp all cleared 800 receiving yards in year one – but none of that trio joined a team that had a pair of 125+ target receivers returning. The Seahawks already ranked just 17^th in passing attempts last season, and head coach Pete Carroll has expressed a desire to run the ball more in 2021. There just isn’t enough room for Eskridge to carve out a meaningful role in this offense in year one unless there’s an injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett ahead of him.

 

FACT:

The New York Giants returning players accounted for 72.2% of the team’s passing targets in 2020, including their 3 most-targeted players, who each had at least an 18% target share.

The Giants get Saquon Barkley back from injury this season and added Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph in free agency.

 

What it means:

Kadarius Toney wasn’t drafted to be a major part of the offense in his rookie year. Using a first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to play a major role in year one certainly doesn’t feel like a wise use of that pick, but it appears to be exactly what the Giants did here. They’ll find ways to get him on the field and get the ball into his hands – he’s a dynamic playmaker after the catch – but he’s not going to give you consistent production for fantasy leagues without some injuries in front of him. He would likely need to get himself ahead of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton on the depth chart to play a meaningful rookie role, and I don’t think that’s likely. It would be a positive rookie year if he were even able to match Henry Ruggs' output from last season (26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TD). There’s no need to consider him in anything but the deepest of redraft leagues, and he should be viewed as more of a stash for the future in dynasty.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, 238 wide receivers that were drafted after the 3^rd round of the NFL draft caught a pass as a rookie. Only 4 of them (1.7%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

In that same span, there were 279 undrafted wide receivers who caught at least one pass in their rookie season. Again, only 4 of them (1.4%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

 

What it means:

In redraft leagues, you should avoid drafting rookie receivers who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. Receivers in this group are such a longshot to produce at a high level that you should cross them off your draft list ahead of time. There have been successes to come from this group, but you should wait until you see something from them and pick them up on the waiver wire rather than draft them. There has been a lot of buzz this offseason for Amon-Ra St. Brown, both because he has a cool name and because the Lions have a dearth of WR talent, and there has been a little bit of noise more recently for Tylan Wallace as the Ravens have been depleted by injuries at the receiver position. Let other teams in your league take the chance on those guys. I’m not a scout, so I’d rather not assume I’m capable of identifying which player from this range is going to be the outlier who does produce as a rookie.

 

That’s all I’ve got for the receivers. Hopefully, it helps you if you have a draft coming up this weekend. Sorry if it seems like I’m a downer on your favorite rookie wide receivers this season. I do think there is going to be quality that comes from this wide receiver class, but I also think the 2020 class has thrown our expectations for them in year one out of whack.

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions about the rookie WR crop or want to yell at me about anything written above, and make sure to come back to check out the weekly Rookie Report articles in-season as well. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

7 of the Top 12 QBs

 

Quarterback continues to be a volatile position in fantasy football. This certainly has not been the case in years past, but this week alone, 7 of the top 12 QBs by fantasy points are not owned in the Drinkfive league. Part of the issue is that many top guys were out with injury, bye weeks, or...other issues. Another problem is that many top guys under performed - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes combined for fewer points than Josh Johnson. Of course, credit must go to Josh Johnson, who put up big numbers in the (garbage) time he had vs the Colts on Thursday night. Colt McCoy and Trevor Siemian also get big kudos for turning in good performances in their first starts of the season, finishing as the QB11 and QB12 respectively. Overall, the 7 QBs that are unowned in the top 12 represent just 38% average ownership (in Fleaflicker leagues) - that number also is heavily weighted by Matt Ryan’s 81% ownership rate - he’s a free agent in our league right now. So, the lesson here is that volatility can happen in any fantasy football market, including at the traditionally stable quarterback position. If you planned on streaming QBs this year and didn’t invest draft capital in a QB, you’re definitely benefiting from that decision now.

31.4 Fantasy Point Average for the Top 4 RBs

 

I’ve been pointing out the lack of production from the top of the running back position over the last few weeks, and especially how there’s tons of production from wide receivers. This week was the opposite of that - maybe they got my message? Anyways, we saw huge performances from James Conner (37.8), Jonathan Taylor (33), Nick Chubb (29.3), and Joe Mixon (25.5). This was better than any wide receiver for the week so far. In fact, the best wide receiver owned in 90% or more of Fleaflicker leagues is Keenan Allen, who finished as the 15th best flex player this week (RB/WR/TE). The top 4 RBs on the week combined for 9 touchdowns, 646 total yards, and averaged nearly 8 yards per touch. Quite the week from all 4 guys, all of whom put up their best fantasy game of the year. Final note - even after that huge week, Jonathan Taylor remains the RB2. Derrick Henry still has both more points and more rushing yards than Taylor.

3 WRs with 2 TDs

 

It was a down week for wide receivers for sure. Only 3 of them managed to find the end zone twice, and stop me if you’ve heard these names on this column before (you haven’t). Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Malik Turner all found the end zone twice this week, and none of them managed to go over 100 yards receiving. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from any of those three - they are owned in an average of 16% of Fleaflicker leagues. Most of that ownership is probably Elijah Moore in dynasty leagues. Only 4 wide receivers did reach the century mark for receiving yards - the same number of RBs who reached that number of rushing yards. This is the first week where the RBs were able to pace the WRs when it came to games over 100 yards - usually it’s close to a 2:1 ratio in favor of the wideouts. 

17.1 Fantasy Points

 

George Kittle returned to the lineup on Sunday, giving the TE position a much needed boost. In fact, we saw the top 3 drafted tight ends finish 1-2-3 so far on the week. George Kittle was the top finisher, scoring a touchdown and gaining over 100 yards, leading all tight ends in week 9. Travis Kelce was right behind him, and Darren Waller made the most out of his 11 targets, which led all tight ends this week. This is the first time since week 1 of this season that all 3 guys have finished in the top 10 scorers. Of course, after them, 4 of the next 5 TEs were owned in an average of less than 4% of Fleaflicker leagues. This just goes to show that all it takes to be a decent fantasy tight end is that you find the end zone. In fact, 8 of the top 10 TEs did find the end zone, and the #10 guy who didn’t, Jared Cook,  at least was able to get a few points from a 2-point conversion

10 D/STs over 10 points

 

10 points is a great benchmark for your defense/special teams slot. If you can get 10 or more points, you should definitely be happy. This week, there were plenty of opportunities for you to land a D/ST that could do that for you, but only if you chose wisely. The top team this week were the New England Patriots, the team that consistently just drinks Sam Darnold’s milkshake. The Pats put up 20 points with 3 picks (one of them a pick-six), a sack, and only 6 points allowed. Then it gets interesting. If you had the guts to pick against some of the top offenses in the league, then you stood a great chance of doing well. The Browns (vs CIN), Jaguars (vs BUF), and the Titans (@ LAR) all were able to score at least 16 fantasy points for you. Those three D/STs combined for 6 interceptions, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TDs, 2 fumble recoveries, and an average of just 13 points allowed. One other crazy thing about this week’s D/ST stats - the Texans and Dolphins played against each other and both teams scored at least 15 points against the opposing offense. Truly, that was a game that should have been played on Thursday night.

 

Here at drinkfive, we love trends, paradigms, fads, all sorts. Of course, you're here for some player info, and we're here to deliver! We like to look at players who are trending up or down for three straight weeks and break down why they're in the spot they are and if we think that will continue. Without further ado:

 

Carson Wentz (QB-IND) - Wk 7 @ SF 20.3, Wk 8 vs TEN 20.34, Wk 9 vs NYJ 24.18: Before this stretch, Wentz had only one game above 20 points. Now he’s strung together three straight good games. He’s the QB7 over the last 3 games. The Jets pass defense is doing well this year, and he had the best fantasy game against them this year. The Colts offense is really rolling - 30+ points in the last 4 straight games. Wentz is also connecting with Pittman, he has 4 touchdowns over the last 3 games. The Colts are not on bye till week 14. They have good matchups coming up with 3 of their next 4 opponents giving up top 12 fantasy points to opposing QBs.

Damien Harris (RB-NE) - Wk 7 @ NYJ 24.3, Wk 8 @ LAC 14.0, Wk 9 @ CAR 9.8: Harris may have peaked against the Jets this year. Now he’s not practicing with a concussion. Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson had over 100 yards, got 12 touches and was in on only 27% of offensive snaps. Harris is not being used in the passing game much at all, he only has 3 targets once this year. Avoid the curse of the Belichick RBs. Two of the next three matchups for Harris are against teams giving up top 10 fewest points to opposing RBs. His bye in week 14 is still upcoming. Harris’s value is fading fast.

Elijah Moore (WR-NYJ) - Wk 7 @ NE 9.7, Wk 8 vs CIN 10.1, Wk 9 @ IND 23.9: Moore has had his share of targets in the games that he’s played so far this year, but he was really able to turn it on the last couple of weeks since Zach Wilson exited the picture. He has 7 touches in each of the last two games, and has 3 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks. Moore is still only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, so he’s definitely worth a speculative add for the rest of the season. After this weeks’ game against Buffalo, he has two great matchups against Miami and Houston.

Pat Freiermuth (TE-PIT) - Wk 6 vs SEA 9.3, Wk 8 @ CLE 12.4, Wk 9 vs CHI 18.8: Muuuuuuth! He’s had 20 targets in his last 3 games - he only had 13 targets in the 5 games before that. He was the TE1 last week, TE1 over the last 3 weeks, only owned in 55% of Fleaflicker leagues. His catch % on the year is an amazing 81.8% - he was north of 90% before his targets increased, so it’s really quite impressive he’s been able to keep it up this high.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. This weekend will be your last chance to improve your positioning as we head into the playoffs. Make sure you know your league’s playoff rules – how many teams get in, how those spots are decided, and what tiebreaker rules are – and make sure you know what you need to do to make the playoffs. It’s good to know if you need huge points this week, or just a win. Don’t get too caught up on other matchups that you need to go one way or another to help you into the playoffs. Focus on only what you can control, your team.

 

Week 13 saw more struggles for a few of the top rookie pass catchers (Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts and DeVonta Smith), but it was nice to see Najee Harris bounce back to a respectable score and Jaylen Waddle and Elijah Mitchell to each post another productive week. Elijah Moore, Kenneth Gainwell and Amon-Ra St. Brown all found the end zone in impressive performances as well. Zach Wilson stunned us by accounting for 3 TDs in a loss, while Mac Jones only threw 3 passes in a win. It was all in a week’s work for the 2021 rookie crop, and they’ll have plenty more in store for us in week 14.

 

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 14…

 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Harris was a letdown in week 12, and while he didn’t bounce back with a ceiling game last Sunday, he still posted 15+ PPR points for the 10^th time in his last 11 games. This week he faces a Vikings’ defense that allows the 12^th-most running back points per game and ranks 29^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. He should be a safe RB1 as usual.

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Chase got back above 50 yards last week for the first time since week 7, but it was hardly a banner day for him. He’s now averaging just under 11 PPR points per game in his last 5 contests, but he’s also averaged 7.8 targets per game in that span. The points are going to come back, and I think this week is a good opportunity for that to start happening. The 49ers allow more points per game to wide receivers than 4 of the last 5 teams the Bengals have faced, and they’ll be missing starting CB Emmanuel Moseley. Keep firing him up.

 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): I know Williams feels like he should fall into the auto-start category above after he steamrolled his way to 178 scrimmage yards and a TD last Sunday night, especially heading into a cake matchup with the Lions. I just want to jump in to say pump the brakes just a little bit. Melvin Gordon appears set return this week, and as much as we want Denver to just give the reins of this backfield to Javonte, head coach Vic Fangio was clear after Sunday’s game that they’re going to continue to use both backs when Gordon is healthy. The good news for Javonte is that he was seeing close to 60% of the snaps in the last 2 games Gordon was active, and I’d expect him to be in that range again in this one. Detroit has allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game, and Denver is an 8.5-point favorite, so even 60% of the workload in this matchup puts Williams in a great position to deliver a strong RB2 day. If Gordon somehow is inactive again, Javonte will be in line for another monster day, and would likely be a top-5 play for the week.

 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Keep a close watch on the injury report with Mitchell. He’s still not practicing as of Thursday due to a concussion and knee irritation. If he manages to get cleared though, he should probably be in your lineup. Mitchell has topped 15 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and faces a Cincinnati defense that shouldn’t scare you away. The Bengals have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game this season. If Mitchell is active this week, he’s a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 option.

 

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): With Christian McCaffrey back on the shelf, Hubbard should step back in as the starting RB this week against Atlanta. We’ve already seen how this offense looks with Hubbard as the lead back. In his 5 starts the Panthers have fed him the ball. Hubbard averaged 17.8 carries and 3.6 targets per start, and in a game against these Falcons, and he finished with 91 scrimmage yards and a TD. The Falcons have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA, and the Panthers are favored by 2.5 points, so they game script should allow them to stick with the running game. It’s worth noting that Sam Darnold was the starter for all 5 of Hubbard’s prior starts, and things will be a little different with Cam under center. I still expect the game plan to be run-heavy, but Cam is more likely to vulture goal-line rushing attempts than Darnold. Cam already has 3 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line in just 3 games on the team. I’d still treat Hubbard as a low-end RB2 this week, but be aware of the Cam vulture possibility if you’re trying to break a tie between Hubbard and another back.

 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): We finally got what we’ve been waiting for and saw a big-time game out of Moore with Zach Wilson at QB. It took 12 targets for Moore to post a 6-77-1 line, but that kind of volume should keep coming with Corey Davis done for the season. Moore faces a daunting matchup with New Orleans. The Saints give up the 4^th-most WR points per game, but Moore should see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who has made life tough on top WRs like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams this season. Moore’s volume should be enough to get him through to another WR3 day in spite of this tough individual matchup.

 

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Freiermuth has finished as a top-12 TE in 5 of his last 7 games and was 1.2 points away from making it 6 of 7 last weekend. He did post his lowest reception total of any of those 7 games last week, but he makes his fantasy living by getting into the end zone, and the Vikings have allowed 3 tight end scores in the last 3 weeks despite allowing the 8^th-fewest TE points per game. Freiermuth isn’t a slam dunk start this week, but I’d prefer him over most of the available streaming options that’ll be sitting out there on the wire.

 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): St. Brown posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, hauling in 10 passes for 86 yards and the game-winning TD that ended the Lions’ long winless streak. He’s clearly a bigger part of the passing game with D’Andre Swift sidelined, and Swift seems likely to miss another game this week. That puts ARSB back on the fantasy radar in PPR formats. He’s got a tougher matchup this week, though. Denver has allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, and Amon-Ra’s individual matchup with Kyle Fuller in the slot could be a tall task. Fuller has played well since moving back to the slot when Ronald Darby returned from injury in week 6. He was picked on a bit by Keenan Allen in week 12, but aside from that game, he’s allowed just 2 completions and 13 yards on 10 targets into his coverage since week 6. ARSB may still have success this week, but I think 4-5 catches for 40-50 yards is much more likely than a repeat of what he did last weekend.

 

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Bateman’s playing time has slowly evaporated since the return of Sammy Watkins, and in week 13 he played behind both Watkins and Devin Duvernay. The Browns allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and it’s hard to envision Rashod posting a useful fantasy day while running a route on fewer than 40% of the Ravens’ pass plays.

 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 14: @Car.): It’s come to this. I’m advocating for sitting Kyle Pitts in a week where your matchup could be pivotal to making the fantasy playoffs. I’m not saying you should just sit him for anyone, but if you have another reasonable option or can grab a high-end streaming option this week like Tyler Conklin or Jared Cook, I’d think long and hard about it. We’ve already seen how the Panthers will attack Pitts from their first meeting. They’re going to cover him with Stephon Gilmore any time he lines up outside. Gilmore made life miserable for him in the first meeting, as Pitts was limited to just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets. If you’re chasing points in the standings and need more than just a win to make the playoffs, Pitts likely offers a higher ceiling than other comparable options, but the floor here is lower than usual.

 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Lawrence did post one of his best fantasy days of the season against this Titans’ team, and they’ve allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game, but they’re not that same defense. The Titans have allowed 20.8 QB fantasy points per game this season. Mac Jones is the only QB to score more than that against them since Josh Allen in week 6, and Jones topped it by less than a point. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense have gone in the opposite direction since that game. Lawrence has accounted for just 3 total TDs in 7 games since the first meeting with the Titans, and he’s topped 200 passing yards in just 3 of them (only one above 240). A turnaround could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it with your season on the line.

 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): For 3 glorious drives on Sunday, Zach Wilson flashed the tools that made him the 2^nd overall pick in the NFL draft, accounting for 2 passing scores and another on the ground on the Jets’ first 3 drives of the game. He then turned back into the Zach Wilson we’ve seen the rest of the season, the one who accounted for just 5 total TDs in his first 7 starts. After those first 3 drives Sunday, Wilson went 12-for-25 for 123 yards, zero scores, and 1 INT the rest of the game. The Saints’ defense has given up some ceiling QB weeks this season, but I don’t see how you can rely on Wilson to put one up this week. Wilson has scored a dozen or more fantasy points just 3 times in 8 starts this season, and 12 is significantly lower than the point total you should be hoping for from a QB2.

 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Mills has shown flashes of competence in his limited opportunities this season, tallying over 20 fantasy points in two starts against good defenses (Patriots and Rams), but in his other 4 starts the Texans’ offense has mustered a total of just 15 points and only 1 touchdown. They failed to score a point on any of his 4 drives at the helm last Sunday as well. Seattle’s pass defense ranks just 26^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also allow the 8^th-fewest QB points per game and have only allowed multiple TDs to the opposing QB twice in their last 8 games. Mills is a bottom of the barrel QB2 option this week. He could surprise as he’s done a couple other times this season, but the floor is nonexistent.

 

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): I liked Herbert as a sleeper this week before the Thursday news update that David Montgomery has returned to practice. Herbert put up 112 scrimmage yards and a TD in the Bears’ first meeting with Green Bay and would’ve been a solid play if Montgomery was out this week. Instead, he’ll be lucky if he handles 5+ touches.

 

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): D’Andre Swift faces long odds to suit up this weekend, but that we saw last weekend that still leaves Jefferson 3^rd in line for RB snaps and touches in this offense. Jamaal Williams and Godwin Igwebuike split the bulk of the backfield work with Swift out in Detroit’s first win of the season. Jefferson played just 8 snaps. He’ll still likely see a handful of carries against a Denver defense that ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA if Swift is out, but that isn’t enough to warrant fantasy consideration.

 

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): With JD McKissic out last weekend, Patterson still played just 4 offensive snaps and handled 1 carry against the Raiders. There’s no reason to count on a lot of usage this weekend.

 

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Felton was limited to just 1 offensive snap in week 12 with Kareem Hunt back. He isn’t going to see the field for more than a couple plays when Hunt and Chubb are both active.

 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Evans hasn’t handled more than 1 target in a game since week 6, and he’s only logged rushing attempts in 2 of the 8 games where he’s played offensive snaps.

 

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): It sounds like Dalvin Cook is going to give it a go on Thursday night barring a setback during pregame warmups, and Nwangwu played just 9 snaps and handled 6 touches with Cook out last Sunday. He’s only worth consideration this week if your league starts a return man.

 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): The return of DeAndre Hopkins last week means even less opportunity for Moore, who has topped 30 scrimmage yards just once in the last 7 games. The Rams do allow a lot of yards after the catch (7^th-most in the league), but that really doesn’t matter if Rondale’s only going to get a couple targets.

 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Collins hasn’t reached 30 receiving yards since week 8, and the Seahawks allow the 7^th-fewest WR points per game.

 

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Eskridge has seen his snap share increase in each of the last 3 weeks, and he posted his best game of the season last Sunday with 3 catches for 35 yards and a score, but he’s not on the field enough to be anything more than a TD dart throw right now. There isn’t much of a ceiling playing a part-time role in a run first offense, especially in a week where they’re favored by more than a touchdown.

 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 14: @LAC): Toney still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and he hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards since week 5. Even if he ends up playing, you don’t need me to tell you it’d be wise to sit him with possibly Jake Fromm at QB against the defense allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Schwartz still isn’t practicing as of Thursday after missing the last 2 games with a concussion. If he ends up active, his $200 price tag in DK showdown contests would be tempting. He’s played around half of the offensive snaps in all 3 games he’s been healthy for that OBJ didn’t play in and been used as a situational deep threat in them. The Ravens have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, and the most completions of 40+ yards in the league. It’s still a long shot that the Browns would install those kind of deep shots to Schwartz into the week’s game plan when he hasn’t practiced in nearly 3 weeks.

 

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Fitzpatrick played behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jacob Hollister, and Chester Rodgers ahead of last week’s bye, and the Titans should have Julio Jones back this week. Dez isn’t a fantasy option.

 

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Marshall was a healthy scratch ahead of last week’s bye, and the Panthers’ firing of Joe Brady probably isn’t a good thing for him. Brady served as OC at LSU during Marshall’s time there and was likely one of his biggest advocates on the coaching staff. Shi Smith stepped in and played 15 snaps in that week 12 game that Marshall sat out, but he wasn’t targeted. Both are off the fantasy radar.

 

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Milne has been a healthy scratch each of the last two weeks, and Brown has played fewer than 10 snaps in each of the last 4 games.

 

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Don’t be tempted into thinking this is a good spot for Tremble against a defense allowing the 12^th-most TE points per game. About 30% of the fantasy points and 57% of the TDs the Falcons have allowed to tight ends were given up to Rob Gronkowski in their two meetings with the Bucs. Only two other tight ends have made it to 7 points against them all year (Gesicki and Goedert).

 

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Jordan is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week, and as mentioned under Davis Mills, Houston likely won’t score more than one touchdown. He’s seen an increased snap share in the last couple of weeks, but he’s still hasn’t been targeted more than 4 times in any game. 4 targets aren’t very useful when you average fewer than 8 yards a catch.

 

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Starting TE Logan Thomas suffered what will be a season-ending knee injury in week 13, but it doesn’t open the door for Bates as Ricky Seals-Jones is set to return from IR this week. Bates is only worth consideration if he’s the only available tight end for the Football Team.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): On paper, the Packers are not an easy QB matchup. They allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 10^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re vulnerable to running QBs. Green Bay has allowed the 5^th-most QB rushing yards per game. They’ve given up totals of 37 yards to Jameis Winston, 46 to Jared Goff, 95 to Taylor Heinicke, and 43 to Fields in the first meeting with Chicago. The Bears offense should get a big boost from the return of Allen Robinson as well, even if his main function in this game is to keep Jaire Alexander occupied. Alexander is expected back from IR as well. You’re barking up the wrong tree if you plan to use Fields in a 1-QB league, but with 4 guys who are typically top-20 QB options on byes (Tua, Wentz, Hurts and Mac Jones), I’m very comfortable taking a swing on Fields’ upside if I’m looking for a QB2 this week.

 

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Chargers’ RB2 role behind Austin Ekeler has been a weekly revolving door, but in week 14 the person who ends up in that role could have some relevance. The Chargers enter the week as a 10-point favorite against the Giants, who will be without their starting QB Daniel Jones, and possibly without backup Mike Glennon. It was reported Thursday that Glennon was “moving in the right direction” to be able to play Sunday, but he still needs to clear the concussion protocol. Whether it’s Glennon or 3^rd-stringer Jake Fromm at QB, this should be a convincing win for the Chargers, and that means late garbage time carries against a defense that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game. Rountree, Joshua Kelley, and Justin Jackson have each taken a turn in the role in the last 3 weeks, playing about a quarter of the offensive snaps in that turn, and being a non-factor in the other two games. Whichever of that trio holds the role on Sunday will be a value in showdown DFS contests for this game, especially since Austin Ekeler is battling an ankle injury. Rountree and Kelley each cost just $200 on DraftKings for those contests. Jackson costs $2,800. Keep a close eye on team reports this week to see who is active, but if Rountree manages to get into the RB2 role, a double-digit scoring day isn’t impossible.

 

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Mike Williams is officially ruled out for Sunday on the Covid reserve list, and Keenan Allen could potentially miss this week as well if he can’t get cleared in time. That bodes well for Palmer facing a defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. Palmer and Jalen Guyton will be working as the WR1 and 2 in practice all week as the gameplan is installed, and both will be on the field a lot. To this point of the season, Guyton has typically been on the field twice as often as Palmer, but their target totals are close. In the last 8 games, Guyton has 22 targets to Palmer’s 18. Guyton costs $7,000 on DraftKings for the showdown slate for this game. Palmer costs $200. Both are likely in play as WR4 types this week even if Allen plays and slide up to WR3 options if Allen can’t get cleared in time.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you find your way into the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.