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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was a very eventful one for the rookie crop and was a humbling reminder how hard it can be to predict what to expect in the first game for the fantasy rookies. The two rookies I told you to start last week, Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts, both had the kind of volume you look for from a fantasy starter (17 touches for Harris and 8 targets for Pitts), but neither put up the kind of fantasy performance that you hope for. Both should have better days ahead. All five of the first-round rookie QBs scored more points than Aaron Rodgers in week 1, and Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence each put up over 250 passing yards and multiple scores. 

It was a big debut week for all 3 of the top-10 drafted WRs as well, as each topped 60 yards and found the end zone in their respective openers. All 3 were somewhat risky fantasy plays going into the week, but I also talked about the big upside each possessed in this article last week. My three deep-league sleeper WRs for week 1 (Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown, and Kadarius Toney) all managed to somehow put up negative receiving yards on Sunday, but Rondale Moore had a nice debut and Anthony Schwartz was a big surprise for the Browns with Odell Beckham sidelined. 

One of the biggest rookie storylines of the week was the San Francisco 49ers backfield. Trey Sermon was long expected to be the number 2 back in the Bay behind Raheem Mostert, but he was a surprising healthy scratch in week 1 and got to watch from the sideline as Elijah Mitchell rattled off over 100 yards and a score against the Lions. With Mostert sidelined for the season, I’ll get into what to do with the 49ers backs going forward later in this article.

There are a few rookies that were close to non-factors in week 1 that don’t warrant enough consideration for a full blurb about their week 2 outlook. Those players are: 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Played zero offensive snaps in week 1)

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Zero carries, 2 targets in week 1)

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Maybe number 2 back behind Gibson, but played just 4 offensive snaps)

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Saw 2 carries and 1 target in week 1, now in concussion protocol)

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Played just 2 offensive snaps in week 1)

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Targeted just once in 14 offensive snaps week 1)

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Targeted one time in the 4th quarter of a blowout loss)

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Played just 4 offensive snaps in week 1. Clearly lost WR3 battle with KJ Osborn)

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies to Start: 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Harris’ debut wasn’t quite what fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or second round were hoping for as he totaled fewer than 6 fantasy points against the Bills. On the one hand, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t great and struggled against a talented defense like Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps and handled all the running back touches. That’s the kind of usage you’re looking in a first round fantasy running back. The offensive line should improve with more time playing together, and there will be easier matchups to come, starting as soon as this week with the Raiders. Vegas allowed the 4th-most running back points per game in 2020 and ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In the opener Monday night they let the combination of Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Trenton Cannon put up 98 rushing yards and 2 scores. Najee should be in for a bounce back performance and should be started with confidence.  

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): If you look only at their final fantasy production, you’d probably think Melvin Gordon is still the clear lead back in Denver after the veteran posted 118 scrimmage yards and a touchdown Sunday while the rookie ended up with 41 scoreless yards. If you only look at that production, you’d miss that it was Javonte who handled 56% of the RB rushing attempts, and two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps. Gordon padded his stats with a 70-yard touchdown run but at worst this is a 50-50 timeshare for Javonte. At best, he’s the current 1-A to Gordon’s 1-B…and this week they get to go face the Jaguars. The Jaguars allowed the third-most RB points per game last season and allowed the 3rd-most RB points in week 1 as they were publicly undressed by what should be a very bad Texans team. The Broncos should be able to have their way with the Jags, and I expect a much better showing from Javonte in this one. I’d view him as a low-end RB2 who’s a better option in formats that aren’t full PPR. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): If you just look at the box score from week 1, you can see that DeVonta Smith had a solid NFL debut. If you look deeper at the numbers, there are even more reasons to be excited about what Smith can do this season. The rookie dominated usage in the Eagles’ passing game. Smith ran a route on 95% of the Eagles dropbacks in week 1, had a 23% target share, and a whopping 55% of the team’s air yards. Despite the talk of how involved the Eagles’ tight ends would be this year, this passing game runs through DeVonta Smith. Smith gets a very favorable week 2 matchup. The 49ers have typically been good against wide receivers over the last couple seasons, but they lost their top corner Jason Verrett for the year last week and may not have Emmanuel Moseley back from injury in time for this game. That leaves them with freshly signed Dre Kirkpatrick and Josh Norman (neither of whom were on a team for training camp), 5th-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir (who held up well in week 1 but faced a Lions’ team that is devoid of WR talent), and Dontae Johnson (who was cut for Josh Norman before being later re-signed). No matter who the matchup, I expect Smith to have a notable advantage. He should be fired up as a WR2 this week. 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 2: @TB): I may regret listing Pitts here come Monday, but you simply can’t already be benching this guy after a so-so week 1 performance given what he cost to acquire. This matchup isn’t an exciting one. The Falcons struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright last week against the Eagles, allowing pressure on more than 30% of his dropbacks (the 8th-worst mark in week 1). They should have similar issues with the Bucs in week 2. Philly was 2nd in the league last year in pressure rate as a defense, and the Bucs were 3rd (and returned all 11 starters). That pressure could actually play into Pitts’ hands. His average target depth was just 4.8 yards in the opener, and Ryan may need to find him as an outlet in the short part of the field to beat the pass rush. Pitts did have 8 targets in week 1, tied with Calvin Ridley for the team lead and good for a 24% share. He’s going to be heavily involved. The Bucs are not a dominant defense against tight ends. They allowed the 10th-most points per game to the position a year ago and allowed Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz to combine for 9 catches and 65 yards a week ago. If you drafted Pitts, don’t run away from starting him in this matchup. 

Borderline Rookies: 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): The Jacksonville Jaguars, as a team, had the most embarrassing performance in the NFL in week 1 by getting housed by a Houston Texans team that is expected to be the worst in the NFL. Somehow Trevor Lawrence still finished the week as a QB1. Playing from behind played into his hands in the opener, as he tallied over 330 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He also threw 3 interceptions, but it was an exciting week, nonetheless. On paper, the Denver Broncos should be a tough matchup. PFF graded their secondary as the best in the NFL entering the season, but they let Daniel Jones throw for over 260 yards and a score against them last week. The Broncos did revamp their secondary in the offseason, so you shouldn’t give too much weight to the fact that they allowed the 10th-most QB points per game a season ago, but there seems to be a defensive issue that has carried over. They struggle to prevent QBs from running the ball, especially near the goal-line. Denver allowed the 5th-most QB rushing yards per game last season, and tied for the most QB rushing scores allowed, and then in week one they let Daniel Jones run for 27 yards and a score. We’re yet to see Trevor Lawrence showcase that part of his game, but he has the capability. He rushed for 766 yards and 17 TDs in his last two seasons at Clemson, and he may get a chance to flash those skills again this week. The Jaguars should be playing from behind and throwing again (they’re a 6-point home underdog), and I like Lawrence’s chances of posting multiple total scores and another top-15 QB finish. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Mitchell was certainly the biggest surprise of week one among the rookies, getting the nod as the 49ers RB2 ahead of the higher drafted Trey Sermon, and then putting on a show when his number was called after Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury. Mitchell handled 19 of the 20 running back rushing attempts after Mostert went down and finished the day with a 104-yard performance that included a scintillating 38-yard touchdown run. It was an impressive debut from a player who wasn’t on very many fantasy radars…but will it carry over to week 2? Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained Trey Sermon’s healthy scratch by saying that he just wasn’t one of their top-3 guys out of camp, but I suspect it had something to do with the fact that Sermon doesn’t play special teams. Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty both do. I expect Sermon to be active in week 2, and it remains to be seen which back will post the better fantasy day. Kyle Shanahan has shown a willingness to ride the hot hand in the backfield, regardless of who has it. Since the start of 2020, 6 different running backs have led the team in rushing attempts, with 5 of them handling two-thirds of the HB rushing attempts at least once. Injuries played some part in the musical chairs in this backfield, but this job isn’t going to just be handed to Mitchell. I expect he’ll get first crack to establish the hot hand in week 2 but faces a Philly defense that allowed the 11th-fewest RB points per game in 2020. He’s also unlikely to be very active in the passing game. Mitchell wasn’t targeted once in week 1 and averaged just 1.24 receptions per game over his last 3 college seasons (no more than 1.6 per game in any individual season). I’d shy away from Mitchell in PPR formats and look at him as a risk/reward RB3 option in half- and non-PPR scoring. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 2: @Chi.): The pecking order of the Bengals’ WR group was one of the hottest topics of discussion of the offseason, and for at least week 1 the top option of that group appeared to be the rookie Ja’Marr Chase. Chase led the team in route participation and had the highest percentage of targets per route run. He finished with a 5-101-1 line on 7 targets and clearly still knows how to catch a football even without the white stripes on it. The problem for Chase is that this offense has two other very capable receivers who may have better matchups than he does this week. Chase should do most of his work against 2nd-year pro Jaylon Johnson. Johnson had his struggles as a rookie, allowing nearly 9 yards per target and a 107.5 passer rating into his coverage, but his cohorts in this secondary are worse. Marqui Christian and Kindle Vildor are likely to be overmatched by Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, and I look for Joe Burrow to share a little of the wealth with them this week. Chase has the same kind of upside that he did a week ago, but I’d be a little hesitant to go all-in for this week’s matchup. I view him as a WR3 option for week 2. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Like the other two receivers drafted in the top-10 this year, Waddle’s debut was a rousing success. He managed to get in the end zone and finished as the WR27 for the week with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. Waddle was in a route on 93% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 1, and was targeted on 18% of his routes, but those numbers could both drop with Will Fuller returning from suspension. Waddle spent 75% of his snaps in the slot, but he could leave the field in 2-WR sets with Fuller back. Waddle will match up mostly with Taron Johnson in the slot, who was just an average corner last season, but he allowed just 2 catches on 5 targets into his coverage in week 1 and the Bills allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game in 2020. With slightly reduced usage, I would be less excited to fire up Waddle this week than I am DeVonta or Chase. 

Rookies to Sit: 

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): I was very tempted to list Jones as a sleeper for week 2 but couldn’t bring myself to do it. I just don’t think the Patriots will have to throw enough to make Jones a viable option even in 2 quarterback leagues. The Jets were an awful defense in 2020, allowing the 3rd-most QB points per game, but have just 3 starters that are carry-overs from last year (Quinnen Williams, Bryce Hall, Marcus Maye). I expect them to play better as a unit under the leadership of Robert Saleh, and in week 1 they limited Sam Darnold to just 1 touchdown and a QB17 finish. I’d expect that to be the high end of Jones’ reasonable range of outcomes for week 2 and wouldn’t consider him other than as a low-end QB2 option. 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. NE): Wilson had a shaky debut in week 1, but he still managed to throw for over 250 yards and a pair of TDs en route to finishing as the QB16 for the week. He should face more of an uphill battle in week 2. The Jets’ o-line allowed the highest pressure rate in the league in week one, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, Wilson could be under fire even more often in week 2. He was sacked twice in just 13 snaps after Becton was injured in week 1. The Patriots only sacked Tua twice last week and had just the 20th best pressure rate in the league, but I expect Belichick to have some wrinkles ready for the rookie QB this week. There is a narrative that you shouldn’t start rookie QBs against Belichick, and there’s a reason that narrative exists. There have been 31 rookie QBs to make a start against the Belichick Patriots. 15 of them scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, and only 5 of them made it to 18. The absolute best rookie performance against them in that span was put up by Russell Wilson in 2012. Wilson scored 23.42 fantasy points in that game. That score would’ve been good enough for a finish as the QB12 last week. Again, that’s the BEST rookie QB performance EVER against the Belichick Patriots. Wilson isn’t likely to approach it. 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): The 49ers will likely roll into week 2 with the attitude of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ at the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo played well in week 1 and should again be at the helm of the offense, with a few designed packages and plays for Lance. The Eagles’ defense erased Matt Ryan and the Falcons in week 1, but they were just a middling QB defense a year ago. Lance’s upside is a possible TD again, which isn’t useful in fantasy when 15 quarterbacks topped 20 points in week 1. 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Unless there is a drastic change between now and Sunday, it’ll be Andy Dalton under center for the Bears against the Bengals. You may see Fields mix-in for a few plays again like he did in week 1, but even if he duplicates his performance, one TD with very little other production isn’t going to do you much good in fantasy. If by some chance the Bears made the move to Fields as the starter this week, he’d have sneaky upside as a QB2 against a Bengals’ defense that ranked just 27th in pass defense DVOA in 2020. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Stevenson’s stellar preseason did not carry over into the regular season as his career began with a resounding thud. The rookie back lost a fumble early on and didn’t see the field again as Damien Harris dominated touches. There have been reports that the Patriots could reduce Harris’ role this week after his own late fumble cost the Patriots the game. It remains to be seen whether that could allow Stevenson to work his way back into the mix, or if 2nd-year pro JJ Taylor will get a shot instead. I’d avoid using Stevenson in any lineups until things work themselves out. Even if he does play a bit, he won’t return much value without a TD. 

RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): Roundtree appears to be the primary backup to Austin Ekeler in this offense, but it’s unclear if there’s any value there is in that role after Ekeler handled 60% of all the Chargers running back touches in week 1 despite not seeing a single target. Ekeler handled half of the snaps in short down & distance situations with Roundtree seeing the other half. On passing downs, it was Justin Jackson splitting the work with Ekeler. Roundtree is probably going to see anywhere from 5-8 carries and zero targets most weeks. If he doesn’t score a TD he isn’t going to give you much value in your lineup. 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Carter did at least see a handful of touches in the opener, but his usage wasn’t encouraging. Carter’s value comes in his ability as a receiver, and Ty Johnson was on the field for 80% of the long down & distance situations for the Jets. Carter did handle the other 20%, but he was only on the field for 25% of the team’s total snaps. Until that number comes up, there’s no reason to consider him in your lineups. 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Brown may be the guy who is the most negatively affected by the Ryan Fitzpatrick injury. Brown’s skill set is best utilized on downfield throws, and we’re certainly less likely to see downfield throws from Taylor Heinicke than from FitzMagic. Washington leaned heavily on the running game in the opener. They dialed up a run play on 16 of the 34 plays with Heinicke at QB. I’d look for that to be the strategy going forward. One silver lining is that Terry McLaurin is likely to draw James Bradberry in coverage in week 2. Bradberry’s coverage helped make Courtland Sutton a non-factor in week 1, and he was one of the best coverage corners in the league with a 79.9 coverage grade from PFF in 2020 (7th-best among qualified CBs). If Heinicke shies away from throwing into Bradberry’s coverage, it could mean a few extra looks in Brown’s direction. Unfortunately, I don’t expect them to be the downfield looks that could make him a useful fantasy starter. 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Moore did not make the splash I expected him to in his debut, finishing with 1 catch for negative-3 yards on 4 targets, but he had some opportunities, and his peripheral numbers were encouraging. Moore’s average target depth was 23 yards downfield, and he was in a route on 85% of the Jets’ dropbacks. Corey Davis is going to be the volume receiver in this offense, and they’re clearly going to look to Moore to try and stretch the field. I’m not sure how many opportunities he’ll get to do that this week. The Patriots were in the top-10 at limiting WR fantasy points a year ago and allowed the 5th-fewest in week 1, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, the Jets’ o-line might not hold up long enough to let downfield plays develop. Unless the Jets do a better job of getting Moore involved on quick hitting routes, he could have a quiet day again. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Marshall was involved more than I expected in week 1, playing 53% of the offensive snaps and drawing 6 targets against the Jets. Those targets were less than 9 yards downfield on average, and Marshall only pulled in 3 of them for 26 scoreless yards. Teammate Robby Anderson posted more than double the fantasy points on half as many targets. I don’t expect Marshall to consistently out-target Anderson, but I do expect both guys to be fighting for what’s left over after Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore get their touches. This week the Panthers face a New Orleans defense that stifled the Packers’ high-powered offense in week one. I wouldn’t want to take a chance on Marshall or Anderson having a breakthrough as the Saints add Bradley Roby into the secondary mix. 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Collins had a quiet debut after getting a bit of camp buzz this summer for the Texans. He did run as the WR2 in terms of playing time but was targeted on just 10% of his routes. Both Brandin Cooks and Chris Conley were targeted at higher rates. There should be more volume for the Texans passing attack in week 2. They won’t be dominating the scoreboard in this game like they did against the Jaguars, but I’m not quite ready to believe that Tyrod Taylor will continue to play at the level he did in week 1. The Browns should make it a long day for a Texans’ team with an implied total of less than 18 points. Brandin Cooks is the only piece of this offense to consider in week 2. 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 2: @GB): In a game where Jared Goff threw the ball 57 times, St. Brown was targeted on just 6% of his routes. This passing game is clearly going to run through the running backs and TJ Hockenson, and there were no signs in week 1 that ARSB is standing out over his teammates at wide receiver. Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson, and Quintez Cephus were all targeted at a higher rate than Amon-Ra. Week 1 was a strange game for the Lions, with them falling behind by 28 points and rallying back with some back-ups in the game, so things could change in ARSB’s favor. He still shouldn’t be in your week 2 lineup. 

WR Mike Strachan, IND (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Strachan was involved a bit in the opener, and there has been a lot of buzz about how much the coaching staff loves him, but he still played only 18 snaps, was targeted just twice in week 1, and draws a matchup against a Rams defense that has been among the best in the NFL at limiting WR points since the start of last year. Hard pass. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 2: @Was.): After a lot of talk about Toney potentially getting extra opportunity in week one due to the injuries the Giants’ pass catchers were dealing with, he played just 5 offensive snaps and turned 2 targets into 2 catches and negative-2 yards. Steer clear of Toney until his playing time improves. It’s too early to write him off, but there is a chance he turns into Tavon Austin all over again. Jason Garrett just isn’t a creative enough play-caller to maximize Toney’s talents.  

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Freiermuth had a typical rookie tight end game last week. He played 29 offensive snaps and finished with one catch for 24 yards on one target. Teammate Eric Ebron wasn’t heavily involved either with just 2 targets on 27 snaps. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, were middle of the pack against tight ends last year allowing the 17th most points per game to the position. They limited Mark Andrews to just 3 catches for 20 yards on Monday night. There are better tight end options available than a guy playing half the team snaps in a middling matchup. 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): It’s unlikely Gainwell got through your waivers unclaimed this week, but if he did, he’s worth scooping up. While he’s clearly behind Miles Sanders in the Eagles’ backfield, he got nearly half of the short down & distance snaps and 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. Those are the places where RBs can make their fantasy money (at the goal-line and catching passes in a hurry-up offense). The 49ers are coming off a week where they allowed the Lions’ running backs to haul in an absurd 16 receptions, and they’re banged up on the defensive side of the ball. Gainwell excels as a receiver out of the backfield and has a great chance to be a useful flex option in PPR leagues this week. 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): If you read what I wrote about Elijah Mitchell above, you already know why I have Sermon listed here. For season-long leagues, he’s a guy you can probably acquire on the cheap or possibly scoop off the wire if an impatient manager already dropped him. When he doesn’t have a clear-cut standout RB1, Kyle Shanahan likes to ride the hot hand. I expect Mitchell will be the first man up against the Eagles, but Sermon isn’t going to be a healthy scratch again this week and likely gets a chance if Mitchell struggles. As I mentioned with Mitchell, this isn’t a cake matchup. The Eagles ranked 13th in run defense DVOA last season, so it’s possible no one establishes the hot hand. Sermon is still worth going after as a budget alternative to spending all your free agent budget on Mitchell. There’s a reason the 49ers drafted him in the 3rd round and Mitchell in the 6th.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Moore’s playing time in week one wasn’t quite as extensive as you’d hope for as he played 38% of the team’s offensive snaps, but the ball came his way when he was on the field, and he produced with his opportunities. Moore finished with 4 catches for 68 yards on 5 targets, good for 17 yards per catch despite his average target coming less than 5 yards downfield. Teammate Christian Kirk draws a tough matchup in the slot with Mackensie Alexander this week, and the beauty of the Cardinals’ offense is that they play 4 WRs together with regularity and force the opposing defense into a dime package where their secondary depth is exposed. Moore’s opponent for many of his snaps should be 3rd-year corner Kris Boyd, who allowed a 121.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage last season on 39 targets. DeAndre Hopkins should dominate targets again for the Cardinals, but Moore should have an opportunity to build on what he did in his debut. He’s a sneaky WR3 option in PPR leagues this week, and costs just $4,000 in tournaments on DraftKings. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): Schwartz was thrust into a big role unexpectedly in week one with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, and he made a big impression. Baker Mayfield looked his way downfield on several occasions and he posted a nice day with 69 receiving yards. He finished with an average target depth of just over 25 yards. With Odell already ruled out for week 2, Schwartz could do more of the same. His speed is going to be a matchup nightmare for a Texans secondary that allowed Trevor Lawrence to connect on 5 throws of 20+ yards last week. Not one of Houston’s top-3 corners runs faster than a 4.50 40-yard dash. Schwartz is one of the fastest receivers in the league, running a sub-4.30 at his pro day. The Browns are nearly two-touchdown favorites, so if things go according to plan, they may not be throwing a ton in the second half, but Schwartz has a chance to do damage before things get ugly. There is always a bit of boom-or-bust nature with pure deep threats, but Schwartz has a legit chance to boom and costs just $3,300 on DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

37 Pass Completions

Jets QB Mike White set an NFL record with 37 pass completions in his very first start, but the fun numbers from the game did not stop there. White set the second-highest yardage total in a first start with 406, which was good for the most yardage so far in Week 8. White posted the highest yardage total for a Jets QB since Vinny Testaverde in 2000. White finished the Week as the QB2 in fantasy, the best of the QBs who are not owned in many leagues in a week dominated by guys like that. 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, so far, are not rostered on any team in the drinkfive.com league and have an average ownership rate of just under 30% in Fleaflicker leagues. White has certainly earned himself a chance to start another week or two, and may even find himself as the permanent starter if he continues to play at a high level like this. It’s really a tough break for all of us who said “Mike White? Who the hell is that?” and proceeded to pick the Bengals in our survivor pools.

331 Yards Per Game

Tom Brady, at age 44, is currently dominating in many statistical passing categories. He currently leads the league in completions, pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He is the QB1 on the season with 206.9 total fantasy points in just 8 games. Only Josh Allen has a higher PPG average than Brady, but sits as the QB2 due to bye weeks. Allen isn’t really putting up the passing numbers that Brady is either, with Allen’s fantasy points bolstered by 269 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. But, back to Brady, who put up another ho-hum performance yesterday of 375 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Heck, he even threw a touchdown to the wrong team yesterday, which is the only thing that keeps him from passing the aforementioned Mike White as the QB2 for the week. Brady’s huge offensive output has kept 3 of his WRs as regular starts, when healthy. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are all in the top 22 WRs by total fantasy points. If you look at them on a points per game basis, they are all ranked in the top 19.

137 Rush Yards

Elijah Mitchell is the only running back so far in Week 8 to have surpassed the 100 rushing yard mark. In an era where the traditional running back role seems to be disappearing week by week – and we lost our #1 boy this week, perhaps for the season – it’s increasingly rare to find someone top 100 yards rushing. This doesn’t mean that RBs are necessarily going away, they just get their points in a variety of ways. This week, 23 RBs had at least 10 points or more, so there’s plenty of good players out there still, but it’s so clear that this is a passing league now. 8 wide receivers passed the century mark on Sunday (no RBs or TEs joined them with 100+ receiving yards). Speaking of passers – the only other player with 100+ rushing yards this week is Justin Fields, who had 103 yards in a losing effort against Mitchell’s 49ers. Perhaps it’s fitting that the last bastion of 100-yard rushers is Soldier Field, for this week anyway.

4 WRs with 10+ Receptions

Illustrating my point about this being a passing-dominated league, which I suppose I seem to make at least a couple of times per year, is the fact that this week had the most players with 10+ catches of any this year. This week, we saw Tyler Lockett, Cole Beasley, A.J. Brown, and Michael Pittman all catch at least 4 passes. All but Pittman went over 100 yards as well, but Pittman managed to find the end zone twice, so we’ll still give him an A+ for his fantasy day. There were 3 weeks with 3 WRs at 10+ receptions, and 3 weeks with just 1 WR with 10+ receptions. Even with the 17^th game added this season, the season-long receptions record, set by Michael Thomas in 2019, seems perfectly safe. Currently, Cooper Kupp leads the league in receptions and is only on pace for about 133 receptions on the year, good for just 5^th on the all-time list. Also, an honorable mention must go to T.J. Hockenson, the only non-WR to crack the 10 receptions mark this week. In fact, kudos to Hockenson, who has currently the TE1 on the week without even finding the end zone.

38.7 Receiving Yards Per Game

Odell Beckham Jr. has really fallen from the heights of the top WRs in the league. With just 38.7 yards per game, he is a long way from his 80.3 career average (it was 83.3 going into this season). In Odell’s rookie year, he led the league with 108.8 yards per game, and he posted double-digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. He now has just a 50% catch rate on the year (61% going into the season). He posted a season-low 1.1 fantasy points this week, his 4^th game of the year where he is below just 5 points. Odell is not alone, however. Allen Robinson has had an equally disappointing fantasy season. Since week 1, he has not topped 4 receptions in a game, and in 2021, he has not broken into double-digit fantasy points once. He is at less than half his yards per game, 33.9, than he had in his first 3 seasons in Chicago, 70.0. Robinson is the WR63 for the season, a truly terrible mark for someone who has not missed a game this year.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at week 13, which means the playoff chase in your leagues is heating up. We’re down to just the final two weeks of the regular season in most leagues and these next two matchups can be critical. The number thirteen is often associated with bad luck, so hopefully you’ve been able to avoid being hit by bad news on your players’ availability this week. Week 12 was a bit of a bummer for some of the elite rookies - Ja’Marr Chase, Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith and Kyle Pitts all had poor weeks – but their rookie slack was picked up by Mac Jones, Elijah Mitchell, Javonte Williams and Jaylen Waddle.

This week I’m going to stick with the format introduced in week 12. You obviously already know the most obvious starts & sits, so I don’t want to waste too much time on them. The bigger focus again is on what to do with the borderline rookies, as each lineup decision can be critical at this point in the season.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 13…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Harris has finished as a top-12 PPR running back 8 times in 11 games this season. The matchup with Baltimore isn’t an easy one – the Ravens rank 5^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and just held Nick Chubb to fewer than 5 fantasy points last week – but the Steelers know that with Big Ben at QB, they need to re-commit to running the football if they want to get their season back on track. I’d count on 20+ touches or close to it for Harris.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Waddle had already proven himself as a weekly auto-start in PPR leagues prior to last week, but he posted his best performance of the season on Sunday with a 9-137-1 line on 10 targets. Miami will get DeVante Parker back from IR this week and should play from ahead against the potentially Mike Glennon-led Giants, but Waddle has posted a 22.5% target share in the games Parker has been active for this season and should continue to see the ball come his way. He’s a locked-in WR3.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Chase’s status as an automatic weekly start is getting into the danger zone a bit after his 4^th consecutive game with fewer than 50 yards, one where he saw his lowest target total of the season (3). He also faces a tough matchup with the Chargers, who allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. I’d be inclined to ride with Chase another week despite the recent performances. LA has allowed 4 receivers this season to top 90 receiving yards, and all 4 happened in the last 4 weeks. I don’t envision the Bengals being up this week the way they were against Pittsburgh, so they should throw a good amount more. Chase isn’t going to be limited to 3 targets again.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Mitchell’s broken finger clearly isn’t going to hold him back going forward after he played his highest snap share of the season and posted his best fantasy game in week 12. He did that despite Deebo Samuel continuing to be used out of the backfield and scoring a rushing TD. Samuel is unlikely to play in week 13, so we should expect even more Mitchell this week. Seattle’s run defense is respectable, ranking 11^th in run defense DVOA, but that hasn’t stopped them from being shredded by opposing backs. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game. Mitchell has top-12 potential in week 13 and should be in lineups everywhere.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Williams has now played more snaps than Melvin Gordon in 3 games this season, and 2 of them were the team’s last 2 contests. He seems to finally have a slight edge in this committee backfield and faces a Kansas City defense that ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. If Denver can keep this game from getting out of hand, Williams should see enough rushing volume to return low-end RB2 or flex value. If the Chiefs run away with it (which is possible given the 10-point spread), Williams has been much more involved in the passing game than Gordon, running about twice as many routes as the veteran in the last 2 games. Gordon still hinders Javonte’s ceiling, but not as much as he was a couple weeks ago. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point PPR day for Williams, but he’s got a great shot at finishing as an RB2 this week.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Smith is coming off a dud performance in week 12, but he gets a great opportunity to get right in week 13 against the Jets. New York looks like a middle-of-the-pack WR defense on paper, allowing the 14^th-most WR points per game, but they rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. When teams do throw to their receivers against the Jets, good things happen. The two corners Smith will tangle with on Sunday (Javelin Guidry and Bryce Hall) have each allowed a passer rating right around 120 on throws into their coverage. Volume will be a question mark for Smith, as it has been every week since the Eagles decided to switch to a run-heavy approach, but this is a matchup where just a handful of targets could result in a strong fantasy day. I’d treat Smith as an upside WR3.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): It took a garbage time TD to salvage Freiermuth’s fantasy day in week 12, but garbage time scores count the same as any other. He’s now scored a TD in 4 of the last 5 games and hauled in at least 4 receptions in 6 straight. With Eric Ebron sidelined, Freiermuth played more than 75% of the offensive snaps for just the second time this season, and I’d expect that to continue going forward. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 4^th-most TE points per game. 4 catches and 40+ yards should be automatic, and he’s got a great chance to make it 5 games out of 6 with a TD.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. TB): I won’t fault you if you decide not to stick with Pitts for another week. The last two weeks have been rough if you’ve been starting him, but he does get a favorable matchup this weekend. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th-most TE points per game, including a 17-point day to Jack Doyle last week. The Falcons are 11-point underdogs and will have no choice but to throw this week, and Pitts has seen 5+ targets come his way in all but one game this season. The Bucs allow a 74% completion percentage on throws targeting the tight end. I expect Pitts to bounce back to at least 50-60 yards this week with the possibility for more.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Sitting:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 13: @LAR): Lawrence finally broke through and tallied his first touchdown since Halloween against the Falcons last weekend, and that one score was enough to propel him to a top-10 fantasy finish. He gets a tough matchup with a talented Rams’ defense this week, but it’s a Rams’ defense that has been vulnerable to QBs lately, allowing 15+ points to each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced (a group that includes Davis Mills and Jimmy Garoppolo). The Jaguars are 13-point underdogs in this game, so Lawrence should be throwing a ton, and you saw last week what kind of impact just 30 or 40 rushing yards can make on his fantasy outlook (he ran for 39 yards against Atlanta). There’s plenty of risk and downside for Lawrence here, and he should probably be viewed as a mid-to-low QB2 this week, but I like his chances to finish as the highest scoring rookie QB this week.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): With 4 byes this week, any starting QB is in consideration for a fantasy start in superflex and 2-QB formats, but I’m not a fan of Jones’ outlook in week 13. The rookie has played great ball in recent weeks, but the Patriots’ conservative offense caps his weekly fantasy upside, and he faces the toughest possible matchup this week. The Bills rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and have held 6 of their opponents to fewer than 12 QB fantasy points, and that doesn’t include Big Ben putting up 12.02 against them. The 4 QBs who scored more against Buffalo than Big Ben each scored a rushing TD or ran for more than 60 yards. Jones hasn’t rushed for a TD or run for even 30 yards in any game this season. He has a seriously low floor this week, and I’d be looking for other options in 2-QB formats.

QB Justin Fields, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): It sounds like Justin Fields is going to get the start this week for the Bears after he missed the Thanksgiving game with a rib injury, but it likely won’t be a very welcoming return. The Cardinals have allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game the Bears are likely to be without Allen Robinson again. Fields isn’t going to produce a useful fantasy day without some rushing production, and after some early struggles containing running QBs this season, the Cardinals have put the clamps on over the last couple months. Arizona allowed 20+ rushing yards to 4 of the first 5 QBs they faced but have given up no more than 14 QB rushing yards (to Cam Newton in week 10) in the 6 games since. Fields is no more than a low-end QB2 this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): Buffalo has allowed just 4 running backs all season to score more than 7 fantasy points against them. Two of those backs were Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, who each posted monster games. The other two were Antonio Gibson and Michael Carter, who each scored more than 6 points just from receiving production. More than 80% of Gibson’s points in that game came on 1 long TD reception. Those 4 backs are the only ones to find the end zone against Buffalo in any capacity this season. It’s hard to envision Stevenson making a fantasy impact against that defense while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden. Given Bolden’s role as the receiving back, don’t be surprised if he ends up leading the backfield in fantasy points this week.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Bateman’s playing time took a hit in week 12 with both Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins healthy. He was in a route on only 60% of the Ravens’ dropbacks last week after being at 82% the week before with Brown sidelined. The Steelers are a worse defense than their reputation would have you believe, ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but most of their opponents have needed volume to rack up those points. In their last 7 games, only Darnell Mooney reached 10 fantasy points against the Steelers with fewer than 8 targets. I’d expect closer to 5 or 6 targets for Bateman this week. He’s a viable WR3 option, but I’d prefer someone with a similar floor who has more blow-up potential this week.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Moore posted a fun stat line last week if you started him in PPR formats with 11 receptions, but he turned them into just 51 yards. Colt McCoy was not shy about checking down to the rookie against a defense that entered the game with the 2^nd-most yards after catch allowed this season. This week the Cardinals will get Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back, which likely means a lower target share for Moore, and they face a Bears’ defense that has allowed the 12^th-fewest yards after catch. Even in PPR leagues, it’ll be hard to count on Moore to put up a healthy reception total again if he continues to play fewer than 40% of the offensive snaps, which is likely.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Moore posted his worst fantasy game since before the Jets’ week 6 bye in Zach Wilson’s return to the lineup last Sunday, but with 4 receptions and over 50 scrimmage yards it was still his best fantasy performance in any game that Wilson played from start to finish. Hopefully that bodes well for him going forward. I expect Wilson to keep starting the rest of the way, so Moore needs this connection to get stronger to be useful in fantasy. This week’s matchup is daunting for Moore on paper. The Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game and have allowed just 5 receivers all season to score 10+ fantasy points. 4 of those 5 receivers are in the top-17 in the NFL in fantasy points per game, and 3 of them are in the top-5. Moore isn’t quite on that level, especially with Zach Wilson at QB. I’d be happy with anything more than 50 yards out of Elijah in this one.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Toney’s status for week 13 remains up in the air after he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, but Toney will be hard to rely on this week even if he plays. Daniel Jones is battling a neck injury, so it’s possible that Mike Glennon may end up under center for the Giants. Glennon being under center might not be the worst thing for Kadarius. In Toney’s breakout game against Dallas where he piled up 189 receiving yards, throws from Glennon accounted for 109 of those yards. Toney hasn’t caught for 100+ yards from Daniel Jones in any game this season. The circumstances this week are not the same as they were for that game though. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard missed that game, and Kenny Golladay left it early with injury. The Giants have also changed offensive coordinators since that game. Expecting a repeat of Toney’s one blow-up game here would be playing with fire, even if he’s able to suit up, and even if Glennon starts.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Wilson’s return to the lineup didn’t go as hoped last weekend. He finished outside of the top-24 QBs last week against a defense allowing the 10^th-most QB points per game, and this week gets to face the defense allowing the 18^th-most. The Eagles have been a bit inconsistent on the defensive side, but I’m not willing to bet on Wilson breaking through against them.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Patterson played just 3 offensive snaps on Monday night as Antonio Gibson played his biggest snap share of the season, and extended opportunity for Patterson has been put on hold as the Football Team’s recent wins have put them back in the NFC playoff chase for now.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The likely absence of D’Andre Swift could mean extended playing time for Jefferson against a bad run defense (the Vikings rank 29^th in run defense DVOA), but he played just 5 snaps last week after Swift exited. You’re basically praying for a TD if you play him.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Herbert has averaged 9 snaps, 3 carries and 7 yards per game since David Montgomery returned from IR.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Evans carried the ball a season-high 5 times last Sunday, but all 5 carries came on one drive with the Bengals ahead 41-3. I don’t foresee a similar blowout this weekend against the Chargers.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Rountree was inactive last week for the 3^rd time this season. It’s a weekly guessing game to figure out which back will see snaps behind Austin Ekeler, but none of them offer fantasy value unless they score a TD.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Sermon played zero offensive snaps last Sunday with Elijah Mitchell back on the field.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Collins is playing a starter’s share of snaps, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production. He’s topped 30 receiving yards just twice in 6 games since returning from IR despite playing the 2^nd-most WR snaps on the team in each of those games.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Eskridge saw season-highs in snaps and targets on Monday night, but he’s operating as the WR4 in an offense that has completed just 18 passes per game since Russell Wilson returned from injury in week 10.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Palmer was on the field for a season-high 30 offensive snaps last weekend (42% snap share), but it didn’t lead to a spike in production as he finished with 2 catches and 25 yards. The Chargers were also playing from behind all day, so I wouldn’t expect that playing time bump to continue this week.

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): The return of Curtis Samuel took away even more of the limited snaps that this duo was already playing. Brown was on the field for just 7 plays, and Milne was a healthy scratch on Monday night.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Bates continued to play a large portion of the snaps in Logan Thomas’ first game back from injured reserve, but he ran just 8 routes in a game where Taylor Heinicke dropped back to throw 36 times. He’s back to being primarily a blocker.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): As of Thursday, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard are both not practicing for Philly, and the Eagles face as favorable a running back matchup as the league has to offer with the Jets. The Jets have allowed the most running back points per game by a wide margin this season and have allowed double-digit points to multiple backs in 7 different games. Gainwell has fallen out of favor in Philly’s backfield, but he’ll be forced back into a significant role if Howard and Scott both miss this game, and he costs just $200 more than the minimum on DraftKings for the main slate. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure the others are out before pulling the trigger, but Gainwell could finish as an RB2 this week if both Howard and Scott sit.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 13: @Det.): Nwangwu didn’t play much in college and was an afterthought in fantasy after he was placed on IR to open the season, but since his return he has flashed explosive athleticism on special teams with 2 kick return touchdowns in just 8 chances, and he may have an opportunity to play more on offense in the next couple weeks while Dalvin Cook nurses an injury. Alexander Mattison is going to function as the workhorse back, but Detroit has allowed 14+ RB points to role player running backs Damien Williams, Chris Evans, and Jordan Howard this season. Nwangwu is strictly in play for DFS contests or deep leagues that include return yardage points, but the upside is there for a big day.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 13: Bye): Chuba is sitting this week with the Panthers on bye, but with Christian McCaffrey done for the year Hubbard steps back into the lead role. It’s true that he’s struggled as a pass catcher this season, and that the Panthers’ schedule down the stretch isn’t a favorable one for RBs after a week 14 meeting with the Falcons, but Hubbard has touched the ball at least 15 times in every game McCaffrey’s missed. I expect that to continue down the stretch, and that makes him worth stashing over the bye week in deeper leagues. He could also give you a valuable spot start in week 14 when he faces Atlanta if you’re unfortunate enough to have one of the backs on a bye that week (Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Myles Gaskin).

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The stat lines haven’t been exciting for St. Brown in the last 2 weeks, but he was on the field for nearly all of Detroit’s offensive snaps on Thanksgiving and had more receptions in that game than all but Jamaal Williams. Jared Goff is another week removed from suffering an oblique injury, and the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Amon-Ra lines up in the slot on about 70% of his snaps, and Minnesota slot corner Mackensie Alexander is allowing over 15 yards per completion and a 115 passer rating on throws into his coverage. The ceiling isn’t high in this passing offense, but this is a week where the stars are aligned for ARSB to put up over 60 yards.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Brevin Jordan’s climb up the depth chart in recent weeks appears to be very real after the rookie saw a season-high 60% snap share and was in a route on nearly half of Tyrod Taylor’s dropbacks last Sunday. That playing time boost only turned into 3 targets for the rookie, but he did find the end zone with one of them. This week, the Texans are a 9-point underdog and should be throwing the ball more than they have the last couple weeks. If that happens, Jordan is a sneaky upside play against a Colts’ defense that has allowed double-digit points to a tight end in 5 straight games.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. This weekend will be your last chance to improve your positioning as we head into the playoffs. Make sure you know your league’s playoff rules – how many teams get in, how those spots are decided, and what tiebreaker rules are – and make sure you know what you need to do to make the playoffs. It’s good to know if you need huge points this week, or just a win. Don’t get too caught up on other matchups that you need to go one way or another to help you into the playoffs. Focus on only what you can control, your team.

Week 13 saw more struggles for a few of the top rookie pass catchers (Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts and DeVonta Smith), but it was nice to see Najee Harris bounce back to a respectable score and Jaylen Waddle and Elijah Mitchell to each post another productive week. Elijah Moore, Kenneth Gainwell and Amon-Ra St. Brown all found the end zone in impressive performances as well. Zach Wilson stunned us by accounting for 3 TDs in a loss, while Mac Jones only threw 3 passes in a win. It was all in a week’s work for the 2021 rookie crop, and they’ll have plenty more in store for us in week 14.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 14…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Harris was a letdown in week 12, and while he didn’t bounce back with a ceiling game last Sunday, he still posted 15+ PPR points for the 10^th time in his last 11 games. This week he faces a Vikings’ defense that allows the 12^th-most running back points per game and ranks 29^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. He should be a safe RB1 as usual.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Chase got back above 50 yards last week for the first time since week 7, but it was hardly a banner day for him. He’s now averaging just under 11 PPR points per game in his last 5 contests, but he’s also averaged 7.8 targets per game in that span. The points are going to come back, and I think this week is a good opportunity for that to start happening. The 49ers allow more points per game to wide receivers than 4 of the last 5 teams the Bengals have faced, and they’ll be missing starting CB Emmanuel Moseley. Keep firing him up.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): I know Williams feels like he should fall into the auto-start category above after he steamrolled his way to 178 scrimmage yards and a TD last Sunday night, especially heading into a cake matchup with the Lions. I just want to jump in to say pump the brakes just a little bit. Melvin Gordon appears set return this week, and as much as we want Denver to just give the reins of this backfield to Javonte, head coach Vic Fangio was clear after Sunday’s game that they’re going to continue to use both backs when Gordon is healthy. The good news for Javonte is that he was seeing close to 60% of the snaps in the last 2 games Gordon was active, and I’d expect him to be in that range again in this one. Detroit has allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game, and Denver is an 8.5-point favorite, so even 60% of the workload in this matchup puts Williams in a great position to deliver a strong RB2 day. If Gordon somehow is inactive again, Javonte will be in line for another monster day, and would likely be a top-5 play for the week.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Keep a close watch on the injury report with Mitchell. He’s still not practicing as of Thursday due to a concussion and knee irritation. If he manages to get cleared though, he should probably be in your lineup. Mitchell has topped 15 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and faces a Cincinnati defense that shouldn’t scare you away. The Bengals have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game this season. If Mitchell is active this week, he’s a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 option.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): With Christian McCaffrey back on the shelf, Hubbard should step back in as the starting RB this week against Atlanta. We’ve already seen how this offense looks with Hubbard as the lead back. In his 5 starts the Panthers have fed him the ball. Hubbard averaged 17.8 carries and 3.6 targets per start, and in a game against these Falcons, and he finished with 91 scrimmage yards and a TD. The Falcons have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA, and the Panthers are favored by 2.5 points, so they game script should allow them to stick with the running game. It’s worth noting that Sam Darnold was the starter for all 5 of Hubbard’s prior starts, and things will be a little different with Cam under center. I still expect the game plan to be run-heavy, but Cam is more likely to vulture goal-line rushing attempts than Darnold. Cam already has 3 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line in just 3 games on the team. I’d still treat Hubbard as a low-end RB2 this week, but be aware of the Cam vulture possibility if you’re trying to break a tie between Hubbard and another back.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): We finally got what we’ve been waiting for and saw a big-time game out of Moore with Zach Wilson at QB. It took 12 targets for Moore to post a 6-77-1 line, but that kind of volume should keep coming with Corey Davis done for the season. Moore faces a daunting matchup with New Orleans. The Saints give up the 4^th-most WR points per game, but Moore should see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who has made life tough on top WRs like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams this season. Moore’s volume should be enough to get him through to another WR3 day in spite of this tough individual matchup.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Freiermuth has finished as a top-12 TE in 5 of his last 7 games and was 1.2 points away from making it 6 of 7 last weekend. He did post his lowest reception total of any of those 7 games last week, but he makes his fantasy living by getting into the end zone, and the Vikings have allowed 3 tight end scores in the last 3 weeks despite allowing the 8^th-fewest TE points per game. Freiermuth isn’t a slam dunk start this week, but I’d prefer him over most of the available streaming options that’ll be sitting out there on the wire.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): St. Brown posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, hauling in 10 passes for 86 yards and the game-winning TD that ended the Lions’ long winless streak. He’s clearly a bigger part of the passing game with D’Andre Swift sidelined, and Swift seems likely to miss another game this week. That puts ARSB back on the fantasy radar in PPR formats. He’s got a tougher matchup this week, though. Denver has allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, and Amon-Ra’s individual matchup with Kyle Fuller in the slot could be a tall task. Fuller has played well since moving back to the slot when Ronald Darby returned from injury in week 6. He was picked on a bit by Keenan Allen in week 12, but aside from that game, he’s allowed just 2 completions and 13 yards on 10 targets into his coverage since week 6. ARSB may still have success this week, but I think 4-5 catches for 40-50 yards is much more likely than a repeat of what he did last weekend.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Bateman’s playing time has slowly evaporated since the return of Sammy Watkins, and in week 13 he played behind both Watkins and Devin Duvernay. The Browns allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and it’s hard to envision Rashod posting a useful fantasy day while running a route on fewer than 40% of the Ravens’ pass plays.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 14: @Car.): It’s come to this. I’m advocating for sitting Kyle Pitts in a week where your matchup could be pivotal to making the fantasy playoffs. I’m not saying you should just sit him for anyone, but if you have another reasonable option or can grab a high-end streaming option this week like Tyler Conklin or Jared Cook, I’d think long and hard about it. We’ve already seen how the Panthers will attack Pitts from their first meeting. They’re going to cover him with Stephon Gilmore any time he lines up outside. Gilmore made life miserable for him in the first meeting, as Pitts was limited to just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets. If you’re chasing points in the standings and need more than just a win to make the playoffs, Pitts likely offers a higher ceiling than other comparable options, but the floor here is lower than usual.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Lawrence did post one of his best fantasy days of the season against this Titans’ team, and they’ve allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game, but they’re not that same defense. The Titans have allowed 20.8 QB fantasy points per game this season. Mac Jones is the only QB to score more than that against them since Josh Allen in week 6, and Jones topped it by less than a point. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense have gone in the opposite direction since that game. Lawrence has accounted for just 3 total TDs in 7 games since the first meeting with the Titans, and he’s topped 200 passing yards in just 3 of them (only one above 240). A turnaround could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it with your season on the line.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): For 3 glorious drives on Sunday, Zach Wilson flashed the tools that made him the 2^nd overall pick in the NFL draft, accounting for 2 passing scores and another on the ground on the Jets’ first 3 drives of the game. He then turned back into the Zach Wilson we’ve seen the rest of the season, the one who accounted for just 5 total TDs in his first 7 starts. After those first 3 drives Sunday, Wilson went 12-for-25 for 123 yards, zero scores, and 1 INT the rest of the game. The Saints’ defense has given up some ceiling QB weeks this season, but I don’t see how you can rely on Wilson to put one up this week. Wilson has scored a dozen or more fantasy points just 3 times in 8 starts this season, and 12 is significantly lower than the point total you should be hoping for from a QB2.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Mills has shown flashes of competence in his limited opportunities this season, tallying over 20 fantasy points in two starts against good defenses (Patriots and Rams), but in his other 4 starts the Texans’ offense has mustered a total of just 15 points and only 1 touchdown. They failed to score a point on any of his 4 drives at the helm last Sunday as well. Seattle’s pass defense ranks just 26^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also allow the 8^th-fewest QB points per game and have only allowed multiple TDs to the opposing QB twice in their last 8 games. Mills is a bottom of the barrel QB2 option this week. He could surprise as he’s done a couple other times this season, but the floor is nonexistent.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): I liked Herbert as a sleeper this week before the Thursday news update that David Montgomery has returned to practice. Herbert put up 112 scrimmage yards and a TD in the Bears’ first meeting with Green Bay and would’ve been a solid play if Montgomery was out this week. Instead, he’ll be lucky if he handles 5+ touches.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): D’Andre Swift faces long odds to suit up this weekend, but that we saw last weekend that still leaves Jefferson 3^rd in line for RB snaps and touches in this offense. Jamaal Williams and Godwin Igwebuike split the bulk of the backfield work with Swift out in Detroit’s first win of the season. Jefferson played just 8 snaps. He’ll still likely see a handful of carries against a Denver defense that ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA if Swift is out, but that isn’t enough to warrant fantasy consideration.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): With JD McKissic out last weekend, Patterson still played just 4 offensive snaps and handled 1 carry against the Raiders. There’s no reason to count on a lot of usage this weekend.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Felton was limited to just 1 offensive snap in week 12 with Kareem Hunt back. He isn’t going to see the field for more than a couple plays when Hunt and Chubb are both active.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Evans hasn’t handled more than 1 target in a game since week 6, and he’s only logged rushing attempts in 2 of the 8 games where he’s played offensive snaps.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): It sounds like Dalvin Cook is going to give it a go on Thursday night barring a setback during pregame warmups, and Nwangwu played just 9 snaps and handled 6 touches with Cook out last Sunday. He’s only worth consideration this week if your league starts a return man.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): The return of DeAndre Hopkins last week means even less opportunity for Moore, who has topped 30 scrimmage yards just once in the last 7 games. The Rams do allow a lot of yards after the catch (7^th-most in the league), but that really doesn’t matter if Rondale’s only going to get a couple targets.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Collins hasn’t reached 30 receiving yards since week 8, and the Seahawks allow the 7^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Eskridge has seen his snap share increase in each of the last 3 weeks, and he posted his best game of the season last Sunday with 3 catches for 35 yards and a score, but he’s not on the field enough to be anything more than a TD dart throw right now. There isn’t much of a ceiling playing a part-time role in a run first offense, especially in a week where they’re favored by more than a touchdown.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 14: @LAC): Toney still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and he hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards since week 5. Even if he ends up playing, you don’t need me to tell you it’d be wise to sit him with possibly Jake Fromm at QB against the defense allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Schwartz still isn’t practicing as of Thursday after missing the last 2 games with a concussion. If he ends up active, his $200 price tag in DK showdown contests would be tempting. He’s played around half of the offensive snaps in all 3 games he’s been healthy for that OBJ didn’t play in and been used as a situational deep threat in them. The Ravens have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, and the most completions of 40+ yards in the league. It’s still a long shot that the Browns would install those kind of deep shots to Schwartz into the week’s game plan when he hasn’t practiced in nearly 3 weeks.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Fitzpatrick played behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jacob Hollister, and Chester Rodgers ahead of last week’s bye, and the Titans should have Julio Jones back this week. Dez isn’t a fantasy option.

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Marshall was a healthy scratch ahead of last week’s bye, and the Panthers’ firing of Joe Brady probably isn’t a good thing for him. Brady served as OC at LSU during Marshall’s time there and was likely one of his biggest advocates on the coaching staff. Shi Smith stepped in and played 15 snaps in that week 12 game that Marshall sat out, but he wasn’t targeted. Both are off the fantasy radar.

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Milne has been a healthy scratch each of the last two weeks, and Brown has played fewer than 10 snaps in each of the last 4 games.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Don’t be tempted into thinking this is a good spot for Tremble against a defense allowing the 12^th-most TE points per game. About 30% of the fantasy points and 57% of the TDs the Falcons have allowed to tight ends were given up to Rob Gronkowski in their two meetings with the Bucs. Only two other tight ends have made it to 7 points against them all year (Gesicki and Goedert).

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Jordan is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week, and as mentioned under Davis Mills, Houston likely won’t score more than one touchdown. He’s seen an increased snap share in the last couple of weeks, but he’s still hasn’t been targeted more than 4 times in any game. 4 targets aren’t very useful when you average fewer than 8 yards a catch.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Starting TE Logan Thomas suffered what will be a season-ending knee injury in week 13, but it doesn’t open the door for Bates as Ricky Seals-Jones is set to return from IR this week. Bates is only worth consideration if he’s the only available tight end for the Football Team.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): On paper, the Packers are not an easy QB matchup. They allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 10^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re vulnerable to running QBs. Green Bay has allowed the 5^th-most QB rushing yards per game. They’ve given up totals of 37 yards to Jameis Winston, 46 to Jared Goff, 95 to Taylor Heinicke, and 43 to Fields in the first meeting with Chicago. The Bears offense should get a big boost from the return of Allen Robinson as well, even if his main function in this game is to keep Jaire Alexander occupied. Alexander is expected back from IR as well. You’re barking up the wrong tree if you plan to use Fields in a 1-QB league, but with 4 guys who are typically top-20 QB options on byes (Tua, Wentz, Hurts and Mac Jones), I’m very comfortable taking a swing on Fields’ upside if I’m looking for a QB2 this week.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Chargers’ RB2 role behind Austin Ekeler has been a weekly revolving door, but in week 14 the person who ends up in that role could have some relevance. The Chargers enter the week as a 10-point favorite against the Giants, who will be without their starting QB Daniel Jones, and possibly without backup Mike Glennon. It was reported Thursday that Glennon was “moving in the right direction” to be able to play Sunday, but he still needs to clear the concussion protocol. Whether it’s Glennon or 3^rd-stringer Jake Fromm at QB, this should be a convincing win for the Chargers, and that means late garbage time carries against a defense that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game. Rountree, Joshua Kelley, and Justin Jackson have each taken a turn in the role in the last 3 weeks, playing about a quarter of the offensive snaps in that turn, and being a non-factor in the other two games. Whichever of that trio holds the role on Sunday will be a value in showdown DFS contests for this game, especially since Austin Ekeler is battling an ankle injury. Rountree and Kelley each cost just $200 on DraftKings for those contests. Jackson costs $2,800. Keep a close eye on team reports this week to see who is active, but if Rountree manages to get into the RB2 role, a double-digit scoring day isn’t impossible.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Mike Williams is officially ruled out for Sunday on the Covid reserve list, and Keenan Allen could potentially miss this week as well if he can’t get cleared in time. That bodes well for Palmer facing a defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. Palmer and Jalen Guyton will be working as the WR1 and 2 in practice all week as the gameplan is installed, and both will be on the field a lot. To this point of the season, Guyton has typically been on the field twice as often as Palmer, but their target totals are close. In the last 8 games, Guyton has 22 targets to Palmer’s 18. Guyton costs $7,000 on DraftKings for the showdown slate for this game. Palmer costs $200. Both are likely in play as WR4 types this week even if Allen plays and slide up to WR3 options if Allen can’t get cleared in time.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you find your way into the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.