Fantasy Football is here and drafts are either already going on or just around the corner. Here at drinkfive, we're updating our rankings, watching all the preseason film we can get our hands on, and kicking the Fantasy Finish Line podcast into high gear.
On this episode of the Fantasy Finish Line podcast - your hosts Jason Evans and David Biggs are talking about active QB controversies and training camp battles leading into the 2021 season that will affect the fortunes of quite a few fantasy footballers. Stay on top of the latest news and analysis by listening to the show!
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It’s the most wonderful time of the NFL off-season! It just goes to show how popular football is in this country – playoffs going on in the NBA and NHL, baseball is still in its opening month excitement, but the sports world seems to be fixated on what will be going on this weekend in Nashville.
This time last year it looked like this draft had to be as boring as the dreaded 2013 draft was. Definitely not the case! The amount of story lines heading into this year’s “Annual Selection Meeting” does not disappoint.
So to get ready to boo the commissioner 32 times in one night, let’s take a look at how the first round could go Thursday Night!
With the first pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select…
1 – ARIZONA CARDINALS – Kyler Murray – QB – Oklahoma
There has been a whole lot of “will they, won’t they” going around with this pick. Most of the reports recently say that the Cardinals will look in the direction of someone other than the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback.
I don’t buy it.
Josh Rosen is not the answer. I said it when he was drafted, he gives off a very strong Ryan Leaf vibe…not something you want in your organization. Murray has the potential to be the star leader that this young team needs. Well…young team plus Larry Fitzgerald…a solid plus for a quarterback to have!
2 – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – Nick Bosa – EDGE – Ohio St.
People have called him the best prospect in the league and he will be more productive than his brother, Joey. Better than 28.5 sacks in 35 games? I’m sure the 9ers will accept that.
3 – DENVER BRONCOS (Mock Trade w/NYJ) – Drew Lock – QB - Missouri
It happens every year, and you know it will happen again this year. Teams always make crazy moves up for a quarterback. This year will be no different with all of the names available.
This year, it will be the Broncos that make that move to get a guy that really seems to be a “John Elway” guy. As for the Jets, they move down seven spots, pick up a decent haul of draft capital and will possibly still get a defensive starter…(foreshadowing!)
4 – OAKLAND RAIDERS – Josh Allen - EDGE
Yes the Raiders have removed their scouting team from the War Room, yes they have announced that they are planning on doing something “surprising” But what if all of this buzz is just a way to get teams to think they’ll take a quarterback when really they just want to get a team to move up, take a quarterback, and ensure that the Raiders will get Allen as a Khalil Mack replacement. Maybe the Raiders…as hard as I’m sure it is for you to accept…know what they’re doing!
5 - TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – Devin White – LB -LSU
All of the hype leading up to the draft on the defensive side has been centered on Bosa, Allen and Quinnen Williams, but don’t sleep on White. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs find the Defensive Rookie of the Year falling in their lap.
6 – NEW YORK GIANTS – QUINNEN WILLIAMS – DT - Alabama
Speaking of falling in their lap! The Giants do need to start thinking of an Eli succession plan, but they have two picks this first round and don’t need to reach for a quarterback here. Instead, they just settle for the Aaron Donald-like Williams who many consider to be the best player in the draft.
7 – JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – Jawaan Taylor – T - Florida
You just spent a LOT of money on a quarterback…protect him at all costs!
8 – DETROIT LIONS – Rashan Gary – DE - Michigan
Medical questions are starting to come up on Gary but the Lions look past that to get a potential Pro Bowler who won’t need to go too far from his dorm room to make it to work.
9 – BUFFALO BILLS – T.J. Hockenson – TE - Iowa
Josh Allen (the quarterback taken last year, not the linebacker taken this year…this is confusing!) anyway, the Bills' Allen can chuck the ball 70 yards with ease. Not every play calls for that though, so the Bills get the underneath insurance that he needs.
10 – NEW YORK JETS (Mock Trade w/DEN) – Montez Sweat – EDGE – Mississippi St.
The Jets make out like bandits in this scenario, getting a ton of picks from Denver and still grab the edge rusher that they need.
11 – CINCINNATI BENGALS – Brian Burns – EDGE – Florida. St.
Some have said the Bengals may look to snag a quarterback here, but Andy Dalton isn’t exactly waiting on his AARP card and next year’s draft is much more quarterback heavy. So instead, the Bengals reach a bit to grab someone to get to Big Ben and Baker.
12 – GREEN BAY PACKERS – Ed Oliver – DT - Houston
Possibly the steal of the draft as the Packers sit tight and come away with a smaller but much more athletic B.J. Raji replacement.
13 – MIAMI DOLPHINS – Jonah Williams – G - Alabama
I have a feeling the Dolphins are setting themselves up to tank this year for a high pick next year for their franchise quarterback. Might as well be prepared with a new dominant lineman to protect whoever it will be.
14 – ATLANTA FALCONS – Christian Wilkins – DT - Clemson
Wilkins becomes the first of many Clemson defensive linemen off the board and heads to Atlanta when he should be able to help revitalize the Falcons defense.
15 – WASHINGTON REDSKINS – Marquise Brown - WR - Oklahoma
A lot of people have been talking about D.K. Metcalf after he showed how much of an athletic freak he is at the Combine but the Redskins are able to look past that to grab the best all-around receiver in the draft. But who will throw to him? Hhhmmm…stay tuned!
16 – CAROLINA PANTHERS – D.K. Metcalf – WR - Mississippi
Cam Newton needs someone to throw to other than his running back and tight end. Metcalf should fit in nicely with the Panthers offense.
17 – NEW YORK GIANTS (from CLE) – Dwayne Haskins – QB – Ohio St.
Patience pays off as the Giants are able to still get their guy along with Williams at 4. For the first time in a long time, it will be a good day to be a Giants fan!
18 – MINNESOTA VIKINGS – Andre Dillard – T – Washington St.
The Vikings should only be concerned with protecting a guy that they gave over $80 million guaranteed to. The Minnesota offense has weapons all around, now it is time to solidify the line.
19 – TENNESSEE TITANS – Clelin Ferrell – DE - Clemson
The hometown crowd will be able to witness live their beloved Titans come away with what could be a strong candidate for steal of the draft.
20 – PITTSBURGH STEELERS – Deandre Baker – CB - Georgia
Initial reaction would be that the Steelers need to go offense after losing both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. But with James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh has the luxury of focusing on their defense.
21 – SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – Jaylon Ferguson – EDGE – Louisiana Tech
After trading Frank Clark, Seattle will be looking to fill the pass-rushing void and do so with a small –school gem that could be the next Clark at a MUCH cheaper price for the next 4-5 years.
22 – BALTIMORE RAVENS – Cody Ford – G - Oklahoma
So many people have Baltimore going wide receiver here, which is technically a “need.” But when you’ve chosen to go with a quarterback that can’t throw the ball, it makes a lot more sense to protect him than to give him a weapon that he won’t use.
23 – HOUSTON TEXANS – Devin Bush – LB - Michigan
Some are saying that Bush is the best linebacker in the draft – even ahead of fellow Devin, Devin White. If that is the case then the tough Texans defense just got a lot tougher to deal with.
24 – OAKLAND RAIDERS (from CHI) – Josh Jacobs – RB - Alabama
Reports having been coming out that Jon Gruden is in love with the idea of having Jacobs in his backfield. With the recent retirement of Marshawn Lynch, this pick seems like a foregone conclusion.
25 – PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – Byron Murphy – CB - Washington
The Eagles are rumored to be interested in Jacobs as well. But with him off the board they have to “settle” for arguably the best cornerback in the draft.
26 – INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – Dexter Lawrence – DT - Clemson
They say that a football team should be built from the inside out. The Colts will spend the last two drafts buying into that hypothesis big time!
27 – OAKLAND RAIDERS – Rock Ya-Sin – CB - Temple
Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the Raiders are on the clock! As for this pick, I mean come on, the man’s name just screams “Raiders”!
28 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Greg Little – T - Mississippi
If Philip Rivers is going to stick around for a few more years, it is imperative that the Chargers build an offensive line that they have confidence in.
29 – SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (from KC) – Johnathan Abram – S – Mississippi St.
Seattle replaced Frank Clark with their first 1st round pick – now they try and replace Earl Thomas.
30 – GREEN BAY PACKERS (from NO) – Noah Fant – TE - Iowa
Aaron Rodgers loves his tight ends and he is getting a good one here for years to come.
31 – LOS ANGELES RAMS – Jefferey Simmons – DT – Mississippi St.
Simmons has been labeled as a top-10 talent by some, which means he should be able to properly replace the departing Ndamukong Suh.
32 – WASHINGTON REDSKINS (Mock Trade w/NE) – Daniel Jones – QB - Duke
Bill loves trading down and he will have several chances with Jones still on the board. The Redskins will be the ones to put the package that entices the Pats together for the Duke signal caller.
We're just a couple of weeks away from the playoffs in fantasy football. Now's the time to get your rosters organized and make some tough decisions when it comes to the players that are performing on your team versus the big names that are not. For more discussion on these players, check out the Fantasy Finish Line, Week 10: Playoff Push! podcast.
Curtis Samuel (WR-CAR) Wk 7 @ NO, 14.3; Wk 8 vs ATL, 19.4, Wk 9 @ KC, 22.3 – Samuel is actually trending up over 5 games, going all the way back beginning in Week 4. Samuel did start the season rather slow, only eclipsing 4 targets once in the first 4 weeks. Now over the last 3 games, he has 7 carries and 20 targets. He has scored at least one TD per game during this stretch and finally broke the 100 yard mark last week. Samuel is not the most targeted player on his team by any means, but he is a dynamic player and the team wants to get the ball in his hands however they can. He has at least 1 carry in every game this season, and more than 1 in all but 2 games. Samuel is only owned in 69% of Fleaflicker leagues, so it’s even possible that he’s still available for you to pick up. A key member of the surprisingly good Panthers offense, he has decent matchups coming in his next 4 games, especially @ Minnesota and vs Denver. Samuel is an above average bye week or injury replacement.
Drew Lock (QB-DEN): ECR QB19 (Borderline QB2/3)
Week 6 (@NE): 10/24, 189 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 5/-1 rushing – 5.46 fpts
Week 7 (vs. KC): 42/40, 254 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3/8 rushing, 1 rush TD – 14.96 fpts
Week 8 (vs. LAC): 26/41, 248 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 2/-1 rushing – 20.82 fpts
Week 9 (@ ATL): 25/48, 313 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 7/47 rushing, 1 rush TD – 30.22 fpts
Going up against the Las Vegas Raiders defense in Week 10 presents another favorable matchup – The Raiders are giving up the 7th most fantasy points to QBs (21.5 per game) and Lock has a lot of playmakers on the team - including Jerry Jeudy that we talk about below. Lock has attempted 40 or more passes three games in a row and could be considered a borderline QB1 in this matchup against the porous Raiders.
Going forward, Lock has matchups against the Dolphins, Saints, Chiefs, and Panthers, all of which are much tougher opponents to QBs as of week 9 (ranked at 19th, 13th, 25th, and 24th respectively) than the Chargers, Falcons, and Raiders (4th, 2nd, and 7th) defensive reprieve that he has been able to enjoy. It’s like the feeling when you’re on a tropical vacation but you have to return home next week to January in Chicago. So enjoy it while it lasts. My prediction is that Drew finishes top-10 in Week 10, but he should be left out on the waiver wire afterwards. Bundle up, Drew.
Jerry Jeudy (WR-DEN) Wk 7 vs KC, 3.0; Wk 8 vs LAC, 9.3; Wk 9 @ ATL, 22.0 – Jeudy’s usage on the Broncos has exploded the last few weeks. He has 24 targets over the last two games, more than the previous 4 games combined. Over those two weeks, he has the most targets on the team, which is always the spot you want your starting WRs in. Jeudy is owned in 76% of Fleaflicker leagues, so check your waiver wire to see if the rest of your league is asleep at the wheel. (Yes, that means that you were too). Jeudy has really started to show off his route running skills, including a filthy play last week where he threw his hand up as if he was going deep, and then slammed on the brakes to nab a comeback pass and ran it in for a score. He’s definitely developing a rapport with Drew Lock and just needs to work on bringing his completion percentage up from its current level of 49.2%. With mostly positive matchups coming up to end the season, his only top 5 defensive matchup is against the Chiefs, whom he already played against this year.
Terry McLaurin (WR-WAS): ECR WR6 (Borderline WR1/2)
Week 5 (vs. LAR): 3/7 for 26 yards – 4.10 fpts
Week 6 (@NYG): 7/12 for 74 yards – 10.90 fpts
Week 7 (vs. DAL): 7/11 for 90 yards, 1 TD – 18.50 fpts
Week 9 (vs. NYG): 7/8 for 115 yards, 1 TD – 21.00 fpts
So, with the possible exception of Antonio Gibson who has had some very nice performances, especially in weeks 4 and 7 with 20.80 and 18.80 fpts respectively, Scary Terry has been the only consistent fantasy performer on a week-to-week basis for Washington. In fact, he has not been targeted less than seven times a game this season.
Looking forward to the matchups in the future (Lions, Bengals, Cowboys, Steelers), the games against Detroit and Cincinnati might prove challenging but the Cowboys and Steelers are giving up a lot of points to WRs and Terry has already proven that it doesn’t matter who his QB is, only that there is a QB and he passes to Terry. Which will be the case as long as he’s healthy. It was good to see Smith still involving McLaurin heavily in the passing game and the Redskins are going to keep calling plays out there for #17 all season.
Ronald Jones (RB-TB) Wk 7 @ LV, 10.10; Wk 8 @NYG, 4.6; Wk 9 vs NO, 3.3 – After week 6, Ronald Jones was riding high. He was the first back this season to have 3 straight 100 yard games. He was seeing heavy usage in the passing game, but it all came crashing down in the last 3 weeks. He’s had 23 total carries over 3 games, which is not befitting an RB1 with 92% ownership in leagues. Worse yet, he’s combined for only 66 rushing yards during those games for a 2.8 yard per carry average. During this time, Leonard Fournette has seen more carries (27), so it’s a split at best going forward, with the larger portion of the split apparently going to Fournette. Jones may not be a lost cause altogether, but it’s going to be very hard to predict. If both backs are healthy, you might as well flip a coin to decide which guy will be better. If either gets hurt, the other one will resume a dominant role as the every down back. Matchups this week and in Week 16 are against teams giving up top 5 fantasy points to opposing RBs, so not all is lost with Jones. You’ll just need to pick your spots carefully and hope that the game flow is in your favor.
Jonnu Smith (WR-TEN): ECR TE13 (Borderline TE1/2, used to be TE1 earlier in the season)
Week 7 (vs PIT): 1/4 for 9 yards, 0 TDs – 1.40 fpts
Week 8 (@CIN): 2/2 for 29 yards, 0 TDs – 3.90 fpts
Week 9 (vs CHI): 2/2 for 32 yards, 1 TD – 10.20 fpts
Jonnu Smith is still the TE5 overall so far this season with 78.4 fpts, averaging 9.8 fpts per game. In a world where the point difference between the TE1 (Travis Kelce) and TE10 (Dalton Schultz) is 74.1, more points than the #8 TE (Robert Tonyan) has scored all year, you have to keep what success you can find close to the chest.
Smith returns to must-start territory after finally having a plus day in week 9, but it should be noted that the Colts are only giving up the 2nd fewest points in the league to the TE position. Scary stuff from someone who is only getting 2-3 targets per game right now. So why is that? Well, the Titans have A.J. Brown healthy, Corey Davis actually doing things, and TE Anthony Firkser has been sucking up a similar number of targets per game as Smith, also with limited success.
I believe that this particular matchup will be a tough one and that Smith will most likely only be able to save his day with a touchdown, and the next few matchups that the Titans have to deal with (Ravens, Colts, Browns) are also in the top half of the league as far as preventing fantasy points from the position. Hold on to Smith for the fantasy playoffs in a deep league, but otherwise he’s a tough sell here. Of course, you may not be able to find anyone better in this year’s TE wasteland.