Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

14 Fantasy Points

Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.

7 Wins in a Row

The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season).  Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.

27 Carries

A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore.  The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?

1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards

The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards.  The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.

604 Points

The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.

One of our newest segments on the podcast is Pick Your Poison, where Dave, Jason and a guest pick between two close players based on the drinkfive.com player rankings. This week we were joined by site contributor Mike Mocerino. Our choices will be listed below each of the matchups. Let us know in the comments which players you would pick!

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (#6) @ PHI or Drew Brees (#7) @ TEN

Dak Prescott was limited in practice on Wednesday for the first time in his career. This really isn’t significant for his matchup, I just thought it was an interesting tidbit to illustrate his durability. Don’t worry about Prescott’s availability for Sunday – he has a decent matchup. The Eagles are somehow giving up the 19^th most points to opposing QBs, while giving up the 3^rd most points to opposing WRs. Regardless of any anomalies you may find with Prescott, he should be in shape to have a very high floor this week against the Eagles.

Last week Drew Brees broke two impressive records, the all-time TD record and the single game completion percentage. What does he do for an encore? I suspect he’s going to throw the ball to Michael Thomas an awful lot. The Titans are giving up the 18^th most points to opposing QBs, and have only surrendered more than 22 points to one player all year, Patrick Mahomes. Brees has 9 TDs in his last 2 games, and 16 in his last 5 – I expect him to continue to ride high going into the playoffs, though his ceiling in this game is probably a little lower than the last 2 weeks.

Mike: Drew Brees, Dave: Dak Prescott, Jason: Drew Brees

Matt Ryan (#11) vs JAX or Ryan Fitzpatrick (#12) vs CIN

Ryan gets the struggling Jaguars at home, a team that gives up the 11^th most points to opposing QBs. Last week he targeted Julio Jones a whopping 20 times, and if he wants to win this completely meaningless game, then he might as well target him another 20 times. The Jaguars have given up big games to Rivers, Mahomes and Tannehill this year, and have recently kept Winston to under 11 points, so they’re kind of all over the place. Matt Ryan has a range of just 18.5-21.3 over his last 3 games, and has not put up a really big game since he went down with an injury in week 7.

Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball an awful lot this year, with at least 37 attempts each of the last 5 weeks. He has 2 games with no TDs in that span, however he did manage to rush for 65 yards in one of those. Regardless, they were against tough defenses, Buffalo and the Jets – his opponent on Sunday, the Bengals, are definitely not that. They are giving up the 9^th most points to opposing QBs. They have given up 7 games of 20 points or more this season, including Lamar Jackson’s 2-30 point games. I expect Fitzpatrick to throw the ball a ton – he’s averaging 38 attempts per game since week 7 and he’s the QB7 over the last 4 weeks.

Mike: Matt Ryan, Dave: Matt Ryan, Jason: Matt Ryan

RB

Melvin Gordon (#17) or OAK or Devin Singletary (#18) @ NE

Melvin Gordon’s snap share has dipped lately, hitting a season low of 40% last week after a high water mark of 65% just a few weeks prior. Gordon also carried the ball only 7 times, the fewest he’s seen all year. The one bright spot is that he’s had 5 receptions in each of the last 2 games, and that’s his high on the season. He’ll be facing Oakland, who give up the 13^th most points to opposing RBs, though they did surrender 19.3 to Gordon when they played back in week 10.

Devin Singletary, aka the TRUTH, has been used a lot more on the Bills. He’s seeing a 70+% snap share every week since week 11, after having a max of 68% before that. He’s got almost 18 carries per game over that time period as well and is the RB18 over the last 4 weeks. Singletary has good volume that you can chase, however his biggest problem is his opponent this week, the Patriots. New England is giving up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing RBs, though last week Joe Mixon set a season high mark against them of 15.6 points.

Mike: Mike Singletary, Dave: Melvin Gordon, Jason: Melvin Gordon

Le’Veon Bell (#24) vs PIT or Raheem Mostert (#25) vs LAR

There’s been lots of flippant talk of #RevengeGame(s) this year, but this one could be real. Bell will face his former team, and probably better for him that this is in New York (Jersey) rather than Pittsburgh. Bell has struggled both on and off the field with his team lately, but he needs to have an impressive showing in order to market himself to a new team for next season. The Steelers are giving up the 6^th fewest points to opposing RBs. They have only given up 5 double digit performances all season, and several of those were very flukey, like to David Johnson in week 14, Rashaad Penny in week 2 and Jeff Wilson (the week doesn’t matter there, it’s just an anomaly). Bell still hasn’t broken 100 rushing yards this season, and the Steelers haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher either.

Mostert is the kind of player that you picked up late and probably helped many teams make and win in the playoffs. Last week he disappointed with a 9.9 point performance, but his role on the 49ers should still be pretty safe. The game against the Falcons was something to forget for the Niners, and considering they fumbled the ball 4 times, I don’t expect a repeat. Since Matt Breida had 2 of those fumbles, I don’t see him overtaking Mostert, and Tevin Coleman has very clearly moved from the Guest House to the Dog House, with only 4 carries last week and only 13 touches in the last 3 games. The Rams are giving up the 14^th most points to opposing RBs, a number that is skewed by the fact that they gave up 48 points to Zeke and Pollard just last week.

Mike: Raheem Mostert, Dave: Le'Veon Bell, Jason: Le'Veon Bell

WR

Kenny Golladay (#14) @ DEN or Stefon Diggs (#15)  vs GB

Kenny Golladay is a very talented receiver, in fact, he broke a record that even Megatron didn’t have – he’s the first Lions receiver to have 1,000 yards in two of his first three seasons. Unfortunately, his QB is David Blough (that name again is David Blough) and that really sucks from a fantasy perspective. Blough has only 3 TDs in his 3 games, but he is throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging about 41 attempts per game (probably because the Lions are always losing). It doesn’t get any easier against Denver this week, who are giving up the 8^th fewest points to opposing WRs. The silver lining is that Denver is giving up big numbers to a lot of #1 WRs since Week 11 to guys like Diggs, Hopkins, Hill and Allen.

Speaking of a fellow NFC North wide receiver, Stefon Diggs has not been lighting it up lately, averaging only 7.5 points per game over the last 3 weeks. Diggs has had the volume, with 24 targets over that time, but his matchups have been tough. This week against Green Bay is kind of a middle-of-the-road matchup. They are giving up the 14^th fewest points to opposing WRs and held Diggs to 8.9 points back in Week 2. With Adam Thielen returning to the mix, Diggs is a mixed bag and more of a risk to than he was in the middle of the season.

Mike: Kenny Golladay, Dave: Stefon Diggs, Jason: Kenny Golladay

Anthony Miller (#31) vs KC or John Brown (#32) @ NE

Anthony Miller has been lighting it up lately, well, for a Bears WR anyways. Over his last 3 games, he has 42 total points and his target volume has been very high. He saw 13 targets in Wk 13, then just 4 the next week, but scored a TD. Finally he had another 15 targets last week in Green Bay. Over the last 5 weeks, he is averaging over 10 targets per game, so it’s clear that he’s becoming a favorite of Trubisky. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have really fixed their secondary this season and are giving up the 4^th fewest points to opposing WRs. Since Week 3, they have only given up 3 double digit performances. The Chiefs are much weaker against the run, though they’re also likely to get out to an early lead, so I do expect the Bears to continue to throw the ball, even against a tough passing D.

John Brown has had a breakout season this year (he was even our sleeper pick on the Bills during the preseason). He’s broken 1,000 yards for the second time in his career, and is easily having the best season of his career, with high marks in receptions, yardage and yards per game with 2 games still left to go. Unfortunately for him this week, he’s going to be shut down by Stefon Gilmore and the Patriots league leading pass defense. They give up the fewest points to opposing WRs by almost 3 points compared to the next team on the list. They’ve only given up 5 double digit performances all year, all of them to guys who scored TDs. They’ve allowed just 3 receiving TDs to WRs, which means that one of those performances contained a rushing TD, and the other contained a passing TD. This defense is really good.

Mike: Anthony Miller, Dave: Anthony Miller, Jason: Anthony Miller 

TE

Tyler Higbee (#5) @ SF or Austin Hooper (#6) vs JAX

Higbee has 3 straight 100 yard games over the last 3 weeks, and he’s just been tearing it up since taking over for Gerald Everett. Going in to week 13, Higbee had 884 career yards, and he’s increased that number by 37% since then. He’s already the TE14 on the season, and is the TE4 over the last 4 weeks. Higbee will be facing the 49ers defense, who give up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing TEs this season, though in weeks 13 and 14, they gave up big games to both Mark Andrews and Jared Cook.

Austin Hooper was leading all TEs in fantasy scoring when he went down with an injury and sat out Weeks 11-13. He has not produced since coming back, though he’s had 6 targets per game and probably scored a TD last week that was not ruled a TD. This week Hooper faces the Jaguars, who give up the 10^th most points to opposing TEs. Just last week they gave up a 10 catch, 122 yard performance to Darren Waller, so I expect that Hooper can get open and go back to his production that he had earlier in the year, especially since Jacksonville is likely to focus on Julio Jones.

Mike: Tyler Higbee, Dave: Tyler Higbee, Jason: Austin Hooper

O.J. Howard (#11) vs HOU or Dallas Goedert (#12) vs DAL

OJ Howard has not been a stellar TE this season, but he’s basically the default #2 target on the Bucs after their WR group has been decimated by injury, with 3 guys going down in the last 2 weeks. Howard has 19 targets in his last 3 games, and that number should just go up this week against Houston. The Texans give up the 6^th most points to opposing TEs, including double digit performances each of the last 2 weeks. I expect Howard to be used a lot and Houston will be able to focus on him since there’s not a lot of other options, however Howard is an ok spot start if you’re in a pinch.

Dallas Goedert has been a TD dependent TE on a team that also has a depleted WR group, but he’s way behind Ertz when it comes to a share of the targets. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks, though his high is only 8. Goedert is a high floor, low ceiling type player, just remember that the floor for most TEs is still pretty low. Dallas is giving up the 11^th most points to opposing TEs, and just last week got torched for 111 yards by Tyler Higbee. Dallas has given up 5 TDs to TEs this year, and Dallas will have to score a TD against Dallas to make Dallas a good start. Confused yet? Well I’m done, so good luck this week!

Mike: O.J. Howard, Dave: O.J. Howard, Jason: Dallas Goedert

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

252 Yards from Scrimmage

For the second week in a row, Dalvin Cook reached 200 yards from scrimmage in another dominating performance. This time around, he only needed 22 carries to hit 206 rushing yards, but he still added 2 catches for 46 yards for good measure. He did “only” find the end zone twice, but it was enough to be the top scorer for the second week in a row with 38.2 points. Most weeks I wonder if someone will turn in a performance on Monday night that makes one of my entries a moot point. This week is not one of those times. Cook is now the RB1 on the season with a 10-point lead over Alvin Kamara, who turned in a mere 49 yards from scrimmage in a game where his team put up 38 points. Cook has 13 touchdowns in just 7 games and is basically single-handedly dragging his team out of the basement of the NFC North. An honorable mention goes to Christian McCaffrey, who did not skip a beat and put up 32.1 points in his return, continuing his average of scoring 2 TDs per game. Unfortunately, it sounds like McCaffrey is headed to the bench with another injury.

2% Ownership in Fleaflicker Leagues

There were a number of familiar names on the top WR list of the week, but the one above all the others was definitely new to me. Richie James, who is owned in just 2% of Fleaflicker leagues, and was started in zero leagues that you or I are in, had 3 receptions over 40 yards, including his 41-yard touchdown in what can only be described as garbage time while the 49ers were down 34-10 late in the 4^th quarter. Fantasy football, however, does not care what the score is on the field, so James gets credit for all the 28.9 points that he earned last Thursday night. James just barely edged out Tyreek Hill, who put up his first 100 receiving yard game of the season and caught the 100^th (and 101^st) touchdown pass of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Hill has been around for all of them – he also caught Mahomes’ first TD pass back in 2018. Mahomes is the fastest QB to 100 passing TDs, beating Dan Marino’s mark by 4 games.

3^rd Week as the Top TE

Travis Kelce has been the top TE on a weekly basis for 1/3^rd of the season so far. Not too bad when you consider just how volatile the position is in fantasy football. Kelce is basically a lock for the top spot when he reaches the 20-point mark. This week, and last’s, 20.9-point performances were good for the lead, and it wasn’t even close. He also put up 20.8 in Week 5 and led the league. On the season, Kelce is just dominating the position and is in tier 1 all by himself and it’s not even close. You might say that tier 2 is his as well, considering he has 139.9 points on the season and the next closest player is over 50 points behind him. Darren Waller has quietly been the TE2 on the season without ever finishing in the top 2 of any given week. Waller leads his team in both receptions and receiving yards, though being 8 games into the season and not having a single receiving leader over 400 yards is nothing to write home about.

8^th Most Rushing Yards in the League

Kyler Murray did all he could on Sunday to win but lost to a very surprising Miami team that is playing way beyond any level that people expected this season. Murray added another 106 rushing yards to his already gaudy numbers this season. For the year, he has the 8^th most rushing yards of any player in the league. He’s averaging 7.14 yards per carry. If he never threw a pass, he would be the RB13– 102.3 points come from his rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs. As it stands, Murray is the QB1 on the season with 240.5 points in 8 games. He leads a tier 1 of QBs that include 3 other players, all of whom deserve MVP votes so far this year. Patrick Mahomes got a shout out earlier, but really the major props go to Josh Allen who shut up his critics for a week with his 44-34 win over the Seahawks. Russell Wilson was the only one of the group to struggle, turning the ball over 4 times and scoring his second-lowest total of the season, 24.1 points.

8 Rushing Yards

Tom Brady suffered the worst defeat of his career (35 points) last night and everybody was invited to watch it on Sunday Night Football. The Buccaneers combined for just 8 total rushing yards in a game where none of their players reached double-digit fantasy points. Brady had just 209 passing yards and 3 INTs as he could only muster a late field goal for his team to keep them from being shut out. On the other side, Drew Brees was the only one with a good fantasy game, despite his team putting up 38 points. Brees found the end zone 4 times reaching 22.68 fantasy points, nearly 10 more than the next highest player on his team. Of note in this game was the fact that it contained the two all-time passing touchdown leaders in the NFL. Brees and Brady keep trading the top spot, but this week it was all Brees. He’s now in the lead 564-561.