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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at week 13, which means the playoff chase in your leagues is heating up. We’re down to just the final two weeks of the regular season in most leagues and these next two matchups can be critical. The number thirteen is often associated with bad luck, so hopefully you’ve been able to avoid being hit by bad news on your players’ availability this week. Week 12 was a bit of a bummer for some of the elite rookies - Ja’Marr Chase, Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith and Kyle Pitts all had poor weeks – but their rookie slack was picked up by Mac Jones, Elijah Mitchell, Javonte Williams and Jaylen Waddle.

This week I’m going to stick with the format introduced in week 12. You obviously already know the most obvious starts & sits, so I don’t want to waste too much time on them. The bigger focus again is on what to do with the borderline rookies, as each lineup decision can be critical at this point in the season.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 13…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Harris has finished as a top-12 PPR running back 8 times in 11 games this season. The matchup with Baltimore isn’t an easy one – the Ravens rank 5^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and just held Nick Chubb to fewer than 5 fantasy points last week – but the Steelers know that with Big Ben at QB, they need to re-commit to running the football if they want to get their season back on track. I’d count on 20+ touches or close to it for Harris.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Waddle had already proven himself as a weekly auto-start in PPR leagues prior to last week, but he posted his best performance of the season on Sunday with a 9-137-1 line on 10 targets. Miami will get DeVante Parker back from IR this week and should play from ahead against the potentially Mike Glennon-led Giants, but Waddle has posted a 22.5% target share in the games Parker has been active for this season and should continue to see the ball come his way. He’s a locked-in WR3.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Chase’s status as an automatic weekly start is getting into the danger zone a bit after his 4^th consecutive game with fewer than 50 yards, one where he saw his lowest target total of the season (3). He also faces a tough matchup with the Chargers, who allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. I’d be inclined to ride with Chase another week despite the recent performances. LA has allowed 4 receivers this season to top 90 receiving yards, and all 4 happened in the last 4 weeks. I don’t envision the Bengals being up this week the way they were against Pittsburgh, so they should throw a good amount more. Chase isn’t going to be limited to 3 targets again.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Mitchell’s broken finger clearly isn’t going to hold him back going forward after he played his highest snap share of the season and posted his best fantasy game in week 12. He did that despite Deebo Samuel continuing to be used out of the backfield and scoring a rushing TD. Samuel is unlikely to play in week 13, so we should expect even more Mitchell this week. Seattle’s run defense is respectable, ranking 11^th in run defense DVOA, but that hasn’t stopped them from being shredded by opposing backs. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game. Mitchell has top-12 potential in week 13 and should be in lineups everywhere.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Williams has now played more snaps than Melvin Gordon in 3 games this season, and 2 of them were the team’s last 2 contests. He seems to finally have a slight edge in this committee backfield and faces a Kansas City defense that ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. If Denver can keep this game from getting out of hand, Williams should see enough rushing volume to return low-end RB2 or flex value. If the Chiefs run away with it (which is possible given the 10-point spread), Williams has been much more involved in the passing game than Gordon, running about twice as many routes as the veteran in the last 2 games. Gordon still hinders Javonte’s ceiling, but not as much as he was a couple weeks ago. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point PPR day for Williams, but he’s got a great shot at finishing as an RB2 this week.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Smith is coming off a dud performance in week 12, but he gets a great opportunity to get right in week 13 against the Jets. New York looks like a middle-of-the-pack WR defense on paper, allowing the 14^th-most WR points per game, but they rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. When teams do throw to their receivers against the Jets, good things happen. The two corners Smith will tangle with on Sunday (Javelin Guidry and Bryce Hall) have each allowed a passer rating right around 120 on throws into their coverage. Volume will be a question mark for Smith, as it has been every week since the Eagles decided to switch to a run-heavy approach, but this is a matchup where just a handful of targets could result in a strong fantasy day. I’d treat Smith as an upside WR3.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): It took a garbage time TD to salvage Freiermuth’s fantasy day in week 12, but garbage time scores count the same as any other. He’s now scored a TD in 4 of the last 5 games and hauled in at least 4 receptions in 6 straight. With Eric Ebron sidelined, Freiermuth played more than 75% of the offensive snaps for just the second time this season, and I’d expect that to continue going forward. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 4^th-most TE points per game. 4 catches and 40+ yards should be automatic, and he’s got a great chance to make it 5 games out of 6 with a TD.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. TB): I won’t fault you if you decide not to stick with Pitts for another week. The last two weeks have been rough if you’ve been starting him, but he does get a favorable matchup this weekend. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th-most TE points per game, including a 17-point day to Jack Doyle last week. The Falcons are 11-point underdogs and will have no choice but to throw this week, and Pitts has seen 5+ targets come his way in all but one game this season. The Bucs allow a 74% completion percentage on throws targeting the tight end. I expect Pitts to bounce back to at least 50-60 yards this week with the possibility for more.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Sitting:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 13: @LAR): Lawrence finally broke through and tallied his first touchdown since Halloween against the Falcons last weekend, and that one score was enough to propel him to a top-10 fantasy finish. He gets a tough matchup with a talented Rams’ defense this week, but it’s a Rams’ defense that has been vulnerable to QBs lately, allowing 15+ points to each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced (a group that includes Davis Mills and Jimmy Garoppolo). The Jaguars are 13-point underdogs in this game, so Lawrence should be throwing a ton, and you saw last week what kind of impact just 30 or 40 rushing yards can make on his fantasy outlook (he ran for 39 yards against Atlanta). There’s plenty of risk and downside for Lawrence here, and he should probably be viewed as a mid-to-low QB2 this week, but I like his chances to finish as the highest scoring rookie QB this week.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): With 4 byes this week, any starting QB is in consideration for a fantasy start in superflex and 2-QB formats, but I’m not a fan of Jones’ outlook in week 13. The rookie has played great ball in recent weeks, but the Patriots’ conservative offense caps his weekly fantasy upside, and he faces the toughest possible matchup this week. The Bills rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and have held 6 of their opponents to fewer than 12 QB fantasy points, and that doesn’t include Big Ben putting up 12.02 against them. The 4 QBs who scored more against Buffalo than Big Ben each scored a rushing TD or ran for more than 60 yards. Jones hasn’t rushed for a TD or run for even 30 yards in any game this season. He has a seriously low floor this week, and I’d be looking for other options in 2-QB formats.

QB Justin Fields, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): It sounds like Justin Fields is going to get the start this week for the Bears after he missed the Thanksgiving game with a rib injury, but it likely won’t be a very welcoming return. The Cardinals have allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game the Bears are likely to be without Allen Robinson again. Fields isn’t going to produce a useful fantasy day without some rushing production, and after some early struggles containing running QBs this season, the Cardinals have put the clamps on over the last couple months. Arizona allowed 20+ rushing yards to 4 of the first 5 QBs they faced but have given up no more than 14 QB rushing yards (to Cam Newton in week 10) in the 6 games since. Fields is no more than a low-end QB2 this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): Buffalo has allowed just 4 running backs all season to score more than 7 fantasy points against them. Two of those backs were Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, who each posted monster games. The other two were Antonio Gibson and Michael Carter, who each scored more than 6 points just from receiving production. More than 80% of Gibson’s points in that game came on 1 long TD reception. Those 4 backs are the only ones to find the end zone against Buffalo in any capacity this season. It’s hard to envision Stevenson making a fantasy impact against that defense while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden. Given Bolden’s role as the receiving back, don’t be surprised if he ends up leading the backfield in fantasy points this week.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Bateman’s playing time took a hit in week 12 with both Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins healthy. He was in a route on only 60% of the Ravens’ dropbacks last week after being at 82% the week before with Brown sidelined. The Steelers are a worse defense than their reputation would have you believe, ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but most of their opponents have needed volume to rack up those points. In their last 7 games, only Darnell Mooney reached 10 fantasy points against the Steelers with fewer than 8 targets. I’d expect closer to 5 or 6 targets for Bateman this week. He’s a viable WR3 option, but I’d prefer someone with a similar floor who has more blow-up potential this week.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Moore posted a fun stat line last week if you started him in PPR formats with 11 receptions, but he turned them into just 51 yards. Colt McCoy was not shy about checking down to the rookie against a defense that entered the game with the 2^nd-most yards after catch allowed this season. This week the Cardinals will get Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back, which likely means a lower target share for Moore, and they face a Bears’ defense that has allowed the 12^th-fewest yards after catch. Even in PPR leagues, it’ll be hard to count on Moore to put up a healthy reception total again if he continues to play fewer than 40% of the offensive snaps, which is likely.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Moore posted his worst fantasy game since before the Jets’ week 6 bye in Zach Wilson’s return to the lineup last Sunday, but with 4 receptions and over 50 scrimmage yards it was still his best fantasy performance in any game that Wilson played from start to finish. Hopefully that bodes well for him going forward. I expect Wilson to keep starting the rest of the way, so Moore needs this connection to get stronger to be useful in fantasy. This week’s matchup is daunting for Moore on paper. The Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game and have allowed just 5 receivers all season to score 10+ fantasy points. 4 of those 5 receivers are in the top-17 in the NFL in fantasy points per game, and 3 of them are in the top-5. Moore isn’t quite on that level, especially with Zach Wilson at QB. I’d be happy with anything more than 50 yards out of Elijah in this one.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Toney’s status for week 13 remains up in the air after he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, but Toney will be hard to rely on this week even if he plays. Daniel Jones is battling a neck injury, so it’s possible that Mike Glennon may end up under center for the Giants. Glennon being under center might not be the worst thing for Kadarius. In Toney’s breakout game against Dallas where he piled up 189 receiving yards, throws from Glennon accounted for 109 of those yards. Toney hasn’t caught for 100+ yards from Daniel Jones in any game this season. The circumstances this week are not the same as they were for that game though. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard missed that game, and Kenny Golladay left it early with injury. The Giants have also changed offensive coordinators since that game. Expecting a repeat of Toney’s one blow-up game here would be playing with fire, even if he’s able to suit up, and even if Glennon starts.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Wilson’s return to the lineup didn’t go as hoped last weekend. He finished outside of the top-24 QBs last week against a defense allowing the 10^th-most QB points per game, and this week gets to face the defense allowing the 18^th-most. The Eagles have been a bit inconsistent on the defensive side, but I’m not willing to bet on Wilson breaking through against them.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Patterson played just 3 offensive snaps on Monday night as Antonio Gibson played his biggest snap share of the season, and extended opportunity for Patterson has been put on hold as the Football Team’s recent wins have put them back in the NFC playoff chase for now.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The likely absence of D’Andre Swift could mean extended playing time for Jefferson against a bad run defense (the Vikings rank 29^th in run defense DVOA), but he played just 5 snaps last week after Swift exited. You’re basically praying for a TD if you play him.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Herbert has averaged 9 snaps, 3 carries and 7 yards per game since David Montgomery returned from IR.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Evans carried the ball a season-high 5 times last Sunday, but all 5 carries came on one drive with the Bengals ahead 41-3. I don’t foresee a similar blowout this weekend against the Chargers.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Rountree was inactive last week for the 3^rd time this season. It’s a weekly guessing game to figure out which back will see snaps behind Austin Ekeler, but none of them offer fantasy value unless they score a TD.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Sermon played zero offensive snaps last Sunday with Elijah Mitchell back on the field.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Collins is playing a starter’s share of snaps, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production. He’s topped 30 receiving yards just twice in 6 games since returning from IR despite playing the 2^nd-most WR snaps on the team in each of those games.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Eskridge saw season-highs in snaps and targets on Monday night, but he’s operating as the WR4 in an offense that has completed just 18 passes per game since Russell Wilson returned from injury in week 10.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Palmer was on the field for a season-high 30 offensive snaps last weekend (42% snap share), but it didn’t lead to a spike in production as he finished with 2 catches and 25 yards. The Chargers were also playing from behind all day, so I wouldn’t expect that playing time bump to continue this week.

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): The return of Curtis Samuel took away even more of the limited snaps that this duo was already playing. Brown was on the field for just 7 plays, and Milne was a healthy scratch on Monday night.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Bates continued to play a large portion of the snaps in Logan Thomas’ first game back from injured reserve, but he ran just 8 routes in a game where Taylor Heinicke dropped back to throw 36 times. He’s back to being primarily a blocker.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): As of Thursday, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard are both not practicing for Philly, and the Eagles face as favorable a running back matchup as the league has to offer with the Jets. The Jets have allowed the most running back points per game by a wide margin this season and have allowed double-digit points to multiple backs in 7 different games. Gainwell has fallen out of favor in Philly’s backfield, but he’ll be forced back into a significant role if Howard and Scott both miss this game, and he costs just $200 more than the minimum on DraftKings for the main slate. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure the others are out before pulling the trigger, but Gainwell could finish as an RB2 this week if both Howard and Scott sit.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 13: @Det.): Nwangwu didn’t play much in college and was an afterthought in fantasy after he was placed on IR to open the season, but since his return he has flashed explosive athleticism on special teams with 2 kick return touchdowns in just 8 chances, and he may have an opportunity to play more on offense in the next couple weeks while Dalvin Cook nurses an injury. Alexander Mattison is going to function as the workhorse back, but Detroit has allowed 14+ RB points to role player running backs Damien Williams, Chris Evans, and Jordan Howard this season. Nwangwu is strictly in play for DFS contests or deep leagues that include return yardage points, but the upside is there for a big day.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 13: Bye): Chuba is sitting this week with the Panthers on bye, but with Christian McCaffrey done for the year Hubbard steps back into the lead role. It’s true that he’s struggled as a pass catcher this season, and that the Panthers’ schedule down the stretch isn’t a favorable one for RBs after a week 14 meeting with the Falcons, but Hubbard has touched the ball at least 15 times in every game McCaffrey’s missed. I expect that to continue down the stretch, and that makes him worth stashing over the bye week in deeper leagues. He could also give you a valuable spot start in week 14 when he faces Atlanta if you’re unfortunate enough to have one of the backs on a bye that week (Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Myles Gaskin).

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The stat lines haven’t been exciting for St. Brown in the last 2 weeks, but he was on the field for nearly all of Detroit’s offensive snaps on Thanksgiving and had more receptions in that game than all but Jamaal Williams. Jared Goff is another week removed from suffering an oblique injury, and the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Amon-Ra lines up in the slot on about 70% of his snaps, and Minnesota slot corner Mackensie Alexander is allowing over 15 yards per completion and a 115 passer rating on throws into his coverage. The ceiling isn’t high in this passing offense, but this is a week where the stars are aligned for ARSB to put up over 60 yards.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Brevin Jordan’s climb up the depth chart in recent weeks appears to be very real after the rookie saw a season-high 60% snap share and was in a route on nearly half of Tyrod Taylor’s dropbacks last Sunday. That playing time boost only turned into 3 targets for the rookie, but he did find the end zone with one of them. This week, the Texans are a 9-point underdog and should be throwing the ball more than they have the last couple weeks. If that happens, Jordan is a sneaky upside play against a Colts’ defense that has allowed double-digit points to a tight end in 5 straight games.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the first round of the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. Hopefully you’ve managed to secure a first-round bye and don’t have to worry about coming up with a win this week because Covid-19 and injuries are wreaking havoc on the league. Over 100 NFL players have been added to the Covid reserve list this week and many fantasy-relevant players still have statuses that remain up in the air. You need be vigilant this week about staying up to date on the latest Covid news, because new names have been getting added to the list daily, and you don’t want to get stuck taking a zero from a starter in the playoffs. Plenty of rookies are going to see increased opportunity in this crucial week due to players ahead of them being out, and I’m here to walk you through what to expect from those rookies this week.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 15…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): Harris had one of his best games of the season last Thursday night, and while the Titans seem like a tough matchup on paper, allowing the 2^nd-fewest running back points per game, they also rank just 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This isn’t a matchup to run away from. He’s not an ideal DFS target this week, but you can’t sit him in season-long leagues.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 15: @Den.): Chase finally posted another ceiling game last Sunday against the 49ers, tallying 83 scrimmage yards and 2 scores. It was his first game over 60 yards since week 7, but it was his fourth 20-point fantasy day of the season. You can’t leave that kind of upside on your bench in the fantasy playoffs. The Broncos are good, but not great at limiting WR points. They allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but rank 19^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s not a matchup to run away from.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): You might not have noticed it since there was a bye week and an injury absence mixed in, but Fields has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the last 3 full games he’s played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 4 straight against the Vikings. He’s been more aggressive running the football in recent weeks, averaging 56 rushing yards per game in his last 5 full games with more than 35 yards in each contest. The Vikings have allowed the 9^th-most QB rushing yards per game. Fields also could be in line for a ceiling passing game. In the three games where he’s topped 200 passing yards, he’s connected on downfield throws, averaging 15.7 yards per completion. The Vikings have given up the 4^th-most yards per completion on the season and allowed the 3^rd-most QB fantasy points per game. There’s always risk with Fields due to low passing volume (only 2 games of 30+ pass attempts), but he’s got a big ceiling this week and should be treated as a top-10 QB play.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Jones doesn’t have the big ceiling that Justin Fields offers, but this is a week where he should be a very strong QB2 in superflex and 2-quarterback leagues. You know the Patriots’ game plan is going to be conservative like it always is, but the Colts rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest rushing TDs in the league. They’ve also allowed the 2^nd-most passing TDs and the 12^th-most QB fantasy points per game. I’d be less than stoked to start him as a QB1 this week, but I expect 200+ yards and a pair of scores, which would make him a high-end QB2.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering starting Mitchell, and make sure you have a backup plan ready since Mitchell doesn’t play until the late afternoon Sunday, but if Elijah is able to play against the Falcons he should probably be in lineups. The Falcons rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. In his last 3 games played, Mitchell has averaged 25 carries and 3 targets per game and the 49ers are 9-point favorites against Atlanta. Even if the 49ers limit his workload a bit, he could still post a top-12 performance in this matchup.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Vic Fangio wasted no time getting Melvin Gordon back into his normal role upon his return from injury last week, pushing Javonte back into a 50-50 split of the backfield work again. If you have more reliable options this week, don’t be afraid to sit Javonte. I know he’s scored touchdowns in each of the last 3 games, but two of those games came against bottom-5 run defenses, and in the other game he had a workhorse role. The Bengals rank 10^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back rushing yards per game. I only lean towards starting Williams because of how messy the situation is with Covid-19 and injuries this week. You know Williams is a threat for 60+ yards and a score every week, even in tougher matchups, but be aware that his outlook isn’t quite as rosy this week as it’s been. I’d treat Williams as a low-end RB2 at best.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (WK. 15: vs. Was.): Smith’s usage has been inconsistent since the Eagles shifted to a run-heavy approach in week 8, and his production bottomed out the last two games with just 4 targets, 2 catches, and fewer than 25 yards for Smith in each game. The Eagles know they have to get the ball to Smith more often, and they may have less of a choice on the matter this week with Quez Watkins on the Covid list. Watkins also saw 8 total targets in those last two games. Jalen Hurts is 50-50 to be able to play this week, and it’s decidedly better for Smith’s outlook if Hurts is able to go, but the matchup this week is a good one. Washington allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game and will likely be without starting corner Kendall Fuller and starting safety Kameron Curl. There’s a low floor for Smith, especially if Minshew starts at QB, but this feels more likely to be a ceiling week for the rookie.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Lions are running very short on pass catchers right now, and St. Brown has done an admirable job of picking up the slack in the last two weeks. ARSB has been targeted 12 times in each of the last two games, posting WR6 and WR27 PPR finishes in those contests. Arizona isn’t an easy matchup. They rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA, and slot corner Byron Murphy has allowed a passer rating of just 76.2 on throws into his coverage. The ball is still going to find its way to St. Brown. The Lions will be without TJ Hockenson, and likely without D’Andre Swift as well, and they’re probably going to be playing from behind as usual. St. Brown should be a solid PPR WR3 this week on volume alone. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Swift is able to play, but even then, I’d probably lean towards starting him.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): The Titans have been stingy against tight ends this season, allowing the 6^th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but Freiermuth has found the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, including one score last week against a Minnesota defense that allows the 10^th-fewest TE points, and 2 scores against a Chicago defense that allows the 7^th-fewest TE points. Since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down with injury, Freiermuth has averaged nearly 6 targets per game and has earned a 31% target share in the red zone. His TD upside keeps him in the low-end TE1 range, even in tough matchups.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Mills was impressive for much of last week’s game against the Seahawks, completing his first 15 passes of the game and finishing with 331 yards and a score. On paper, a matchup with Jacksonville, who ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA, seems like an ideal spot for another strong performance, but Mills has usually done the opposite of what you’d expect on paper. His three best fantasy performances have all come against defenses that rank in the top-8 at limiting fantasy points for QBs. The Jaguars actually allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game, so maybe they fit into that bucket as well, but I’d rather not risk starting Mills as my QB2 with the season at stake. I expect the Jaguars to play inspired football now that they’re no longer cursed with Urban Meyer as their head coach.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 15: @Mia.): Carter is expected to return from IR this week, but he returns to a tough matchup. Carter will likely have a big role for the Jets in this one, but in their last 6 games the Dolphins have only allowed 1 running back to reach 10 fantasy points (Saquon Barkley). You’ll need a big receiving day from Carter for him to even post an RB3 performance with the Jets unlikely to do much running as 8.5-point underdogs. I wouldn’t start Carter in playoff matchups unless you’re desperate.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Stevenson has been very impressive with his opportunities, but Damien Harris is trending in the right direction to play this week and the Colts are a tough matchup. They rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game. Rhamondre has rushed for 60+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, but most of those games were blowout wins and New England is a 2-point underdog in this one. You could do worse than Stevenson if you’re desperate, but this feels like it’ll be a floor game for him.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Week 14 was a clear illustration that Hubbard’s role as lead back is going to look a bit different with Cam Newton at QB rather than Sam Darnold. Hubbard averaged 20 touches per game in his 5-game stint as the lead back with Darnold under center. He touched the ball just 10 times last Sunday as Cam Newton handled more than a third of the team’s designed rushing attempts and vultured a goal-line score. Hubbard still got into the end zone once himself, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat trip this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Ameer Abdullah is going to play in passing situations and the Panthers are double-digit underdogs this weekend. Abdullah is the one worth considering this week unless you expect Carolina to play from ahead and have success running the ball.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Bateman posted the first 100-yard game of his career last week, with all the yards coming from the arm of Tyler Huntley. It’s still up in the air whether Lamar Jackson will be able to return this week or not, but Bateman is a risky starting option in your playoff matchups no matter who is at QB. Much of his week 14 production came during a furious rally with the Ravens trailing by multiple scores. He didn’t see his first target of the game until the Ravens were trailing by 21 points, and 4 of his 7 catches came in the last 3 minutes of the game. He’s been impressive when given chances, but those chances only seem to occur when the team is desperate. Over 71% of his yards have come with the Ravens trailing on the scoreboard. The Ravens may find themselves in more desperation time in week 15 as they’re 4.5-point underdogs, but the Packers are a better pass defense than the Browns and may get Jaire Alexander back this week. I view Bateman as an upside WR4 option in this one.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Collins had a breakout game in week 14, garnering a season-high 10 targets, and turning them into 5 catches for 69 yards. It was the kind of week we’ve been waiting for from the rookie, but he had totaled just 6 catches for 62 yards in the previous 4 games. I wouldn’t be willing to bank on Collins repeating his best game of the season in the fantasy playoffs, even in a plus matchup with the Jaguars. If you believe in Davis Mills and the Texans passing game this week, they could be value DFS plays, but I wouldn’t bet on them in playoff matchups.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 15: @Det.): In all honesty, I could probably move Moore down to the rookies you already know to sit, but I want to make sure you aren’t getting any ideas just because DeAndre Hopkins is out, and because the Cardinals are facing the hapless Lions. We’ve already seen that it’s Antoine Wesley who will see increased snaps when Hopkins is out, not Rondale, and Moore’s current usage just isn’t conducive to fantasy production. He’s got an average target depth of just 1.7 yards downfield, and Detroit allows the 6^th-fewest yards after catch in the league. Moore’s best hope for production is if James Conner misses this game and he gets used more often as a rusher in what should be a blowout win, but you can’t count on that.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): I know if you have Pitts, you likely don’t have any better options to play this week than him, but this isn’t a great spot for him. The 49ers have allowed just one tight end to reach 40 receiving yards in their last 12 games, and if you have Pitts on your team, you already know he doesn’t score touchdowns, so the catches and yards are crucial. Pitts has scored just one touchdown all season. If you want to search for a silver lining here, Pitts is still a freakish athlete capable of a big game, and that one tight end who topped 40 yards against San Francisco was CJ Uzomah just last week. Just don’t be surprised if we get another 3-catch, 30-yard type of performance from Pitts again in this one.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 15: @Mia.): The Dolphins have held 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 10 fantasy points, and all 5 to fewer than 18. Wilson has started 9 games this season. He’s posted multiple TDs 3 times, and just 1 TOTAL touchdown in the other 6 starts. I would not expect a ceiling week in this matchup, and I certainly wouldn’t take a chance on it with the season on the line.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard are both practicing in a limited capacity this week and seem to be on track to play. Gainwell hasn’t played more than 20 snaps in any game Howard has been active for this season. Even if one of Sanders or Howard sit, Washington allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game. Gainwell should be left parked on the bench and not in your playoff lineups.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Patterson hasn’t taken on a bigger role in the last couple weeks, even with JD McKissic sidelined due to a concussion. Instead, he split the backup work with Wendell Smallwood in week 13 and Jonathan Williams in week 14. Antonio Gibson has been seeing his largest snap shares of the season in the past 3 weeks, and there just isn’t enough work leftover for Patterson to have value.  

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): Herbert played fewer snaps than Damien Williams in week 14. It was the first time he played fewer snaps than Williams since week 4. He’s off the fantasy radar so long as David Montgomery is healthy.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Jefferson had a golden opportunity last week with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both sidelined…and he played just 3 offensive snaps as the unknown Craig Reynolds functioned as the team’s lead back with Godwin Igwebuike playing on passing downs. Jermar isn’t worth a roster spot right now in any redraft format.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 15: vs. LV): Felton could see a few more snaps this week with Kareem Hunt out with an ankle injury, but after 2 muffed punts a week ago it’s hard to see the Browns giving him much of an extended role. He’ll still be playing behind Nick Chubb and D’Ernest Johnson.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 15: @Den.): Evans has been inactive in each of the last two weeks with an ankle injury, and he’s logged more than 10 snaps in a game just once all season.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Rountree has been inactive for each of the last 3 weeks, and even if he were suddenly thrust into the RB2 role this week, I wouldn’t expect much of a workload in a game where the Chargers will need to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs.

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Skowronek is worth mentioning because he’ll be forced into a much bigger role in the offense if Odell Beckham Jr. can’t get cleared from the Covid list ahead of the game, but he’ll still be a distant 4^th in the target pecking order behind Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. We’ve seen Skowronek play more than 70% of the offensive snaps once this season, and the result was 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 targets against the 49ers. Seattle allows the 7^th-fewest WR points per game. With your season at stake, you can find a better upside option than Skowronek.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Palmer posted a very nice fantasy day last weekend in Keenan Allen’s absence, but don’t count on a repeat performance with Allen back this week. He’ll go back to his usual role on Thursday night, and in that usual role Palmer hasn’t totaled more than 25 yards in a game. Even in a matchup where the Chargers could be throwing a lot, I wouldn’t trust Palmer.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Marshall was on the field quite a bit in week 14. In fact, his 47% snap share on Sunday was the most he’s played since week 5, but it translated to zero targets in a game where the Panthers threw the ball 35 times. Unless DJ Moore ends up sidelined with his hamstring injury, there’s no reason to consider Marshall even in deep leagues this week. Even if Moore sits, the Bills allow the fewest wide receiver points per game.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): In case you missed the news, Waddle was yet another player added to the Covid reserve list this week, making him unlikely to suit up in a great matchup with the Jets. Albert Wilson is the most likely candidate to fill Waddle’s spot in the lineup, but DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and the running backs are the places to turn for fantasy options.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Toney’s best game of the season came against the Cowboys in Dallas, with Mike Glennon playing at QB for most of the game. The rookie likely won’t get a chance at a repeat performance. He’s been out with injury the last few weeks and was added to the Covid reserve list this week. His return to the field is very unlikely in week 15.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Fitzpatrick was inactive last week and was added to the Covid reserve list this week. He’s unlikely to play Sunday and even less likely to produce a fantasy-relevant day.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Tremble hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in a game since week 8, and the Bills have allowed 1 tight end touchdown since week 6. There’s no reason to roll the dice on Tremble.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Urban Meyer is finally out as Jacksonville’s head coach, and for at least this week it should be a big boost for the team. Lawrence has been an abysmal fantasy option in recent weeks, totaling just 1 touchdown in his last 6 games, but this is the week where I expect him to buck that trend. Since 2010, interim head coaches have a record of 14-9 in their first game, and the teams they were stepping in for were a combined 60-164-2 at the time the previous head coach was fired. That’s a winning percentage that’s 34% higher in the first game under an interim coach. This points to the Jaguars being very likely to beat the Texans, and if they win, I like Lawrence’s chances of finishing as a mid-range QB2. Admittedly, this is more of a hunch than a well-reasoned decision. The Texans have actually been decent against QBs and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re far from an unbeatable defense.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 15: @LAR): Eskridge has seen his playing time increase each week since returning from IR, and in week 14 he finally out-snapped Freddie Swain for the first time this season. Tyler Lockett was placed on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Rams have FIVE defensive backs currently on the Covid list as well, including both starting cornerbacks and their starting strong safety. I’d look for the Rams to use the blitz to try and cover for their lack of DB depth, and Eskridge could be a popular outlet option with speed to burn after the catch. If you’re desperate in a deep redraft league, Eskridge is probably available on the waiver wire. The floor is non-existent, but 15+ points is not impossible for Eskridge if Lockett misses this game.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): I wouldn’t consider Brown in any fantasy playoff matchups this week, but Terry McLaurin was concussed last weekend and Curtis Samuel is ailing again as well. There’s a clear path to a lot of playing time for Brown if both McLaurin & Samuel are inactive, and Brown costs just $200 for the DraftKings showdown slate. We’ve seen this story play out before. Brown didn’t do much with extended playing time early in the season, and the Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but it’s still hard to ignore a guy with a potential full-time role that costs the minimum in a limited slate contest.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Since their week 7 bye, the Jaguars have allowed just one tight end touchdown (to George Kittle) and haven’t allowed a single tight end to reach 50 receiving yards against them, but Jordan’s recent spike in usage is impossible to ignore. He was only running a route on about 40% of the Texans’ dropbacks each of the last two weeks, but he was targeted on more than a quarter of his routes. He’s now seen the ball come his way 11 times in the last two weeks, and I think that increased opportunity for him is here to stay with Davis Mills now installed as the starting QB. He’ll need to get in the end zone to be a worthwhile play this week, even as a cheap DFS option, but he’s found the end zone 3 times in the last 6 games and should be a safe bet for 4+ targets on Sunday.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Bates has been mostly an afterthought in this passing game, seeing 4+ targets just once all season, but he played a bigger role than I expected last week with Ricky Seals-Jones back from IR and gets the best possible tight end matchup in week 15. Bates was in a route on 63% of Washington’s dropbacks last Sunday compared to 40% for RSJ, even if Seals-Jones did out-target him 4 to 2. The Eagles allow the most tight end points per game and have allowed a tight end TD in 9 of their last 11 games. I do expect Seals-Jones’ playing time to increase going forward, but RSJ costs $5,400 for the showdown slate for this game on DraftKings while Bates’ costs just $1,000, and backup tight ends have scored against Philly with regularity. I wouldn’t fire up Bates in any fantasy playoff matchups this weekend, but he has DFS upside.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.