We continue cruising through the NFL season, and here in week 4, it seems like the injuries have slowed down just a little. Let's hope you get a few more weeks before you need to worry about rebuilding your entire fantasy team. Week 4 also marks the beginning of the by weeks, with the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans. Also, the Jets and Dolphins play at 8:30 CST on Sunday morning, live from London!
Tyrod Taylor has been lighting the world up over the first three weeks, and has made it up to #3 on our weekly rankings, mostly based on his matchup with the Giants average passing defense. In two QB leagues, watch out for Dave's long predicted fall of Ryan Fitzpatrick, now that he's completed three games this year. Karlos Williams finds himself in our top 10, mostly due to the fact that LeSean McCoy has been hobbled and may just sit out week 4. Devonta Freeman, while putting up a monster game in week 3, should come back down to earth against the Texans defense. Freeman got his production through sheer volume of touches, so don't expect lots of magic to happen unless the Texans defense falls apart like the Cowboys did last week.
Sticking with the Bills, we have a third guy from that team, Percy Harvin, who we really like this week. Harvin has 20 touches through three games, and they're well spread out. It seems like he will continue to get work all year, as long as he's healthy. Davante Adams, meanwhile, is a guy to just go ahead and avoid this week. (Yes, this sounds a whole lot like the advice from last week, but it wasn't bad, was it?) Adams basically missed the whole game on Monday night due to his ankle injury, and it's clear that he's taken a backseat to James Jones.
Ladarius Green did sit out week 3 with a concussion, but if he plays in week 4, he could be a decent bye week replacement. The Chargers play the Browns, who have given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing TE's. On the flipside, Eric Ebron has been OK, but the ship appears to be sinking in Detroit, so don't jump on now. Two weeks in a row, we've heard reports of other teams calling out the Lions's plays before the snap. If that continues, their offense will struggle mightily.
Good luck in week 4, and don't forget to get your waiver wire claims in before the deadline!
Six weeks of the season are in the books and unfortunately, no perfect lineups to show for it; let's change that around! This week we are going with a low cost QB/WR stack who face off against a team that scores a lot of points, spending high on a couple of stud RBs with great matchups and selecting a duo of old man WRs whose teams happen to be going head to head.
QB - Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ - $7,100 at NE: Fitzpatrick has been steady all season and should get a boost in production this week up against New England. Look for the Jets to throw the ball more than normal to keep up in this game as well as there being a high potential for garbage time points.
RB - Devonta Freeman, ATL - $8,700 at TEN: Freeman has been shredding defenses all season and the Titans 5th worst run defense isn't going to stop him this week. Great matchup here as the Falcons should have a lead throughout the game which leans the offense even further towards the run.
RB - Todd Gurley, STL - $7,400 vs. CLE: It looks like Tre Mason will be sitting out week 7 so Todd Gurley will be getting a huge workload against the worst run defense in the NFL. Great price tag for the value here.
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - $7,800 vs. BAL: Old man receiver number 1 in our lineup has a great matchup against the 4th worst pass defense. Fitzgerald also should get a boost this week as it looks like John Brown will not be playing due to a hamstring injury.
WR - Steve Smith, BAL - $6,900 at ARI: Old man receiver number 2 in our lineup has a tough matchup against the Cardinals, but his high volume of targets will make up for it since Flacco has no one else to throw to.
WR - Eric Decker, NYJ - $6,200 at NE: Selecting Decker as a wide receiver stack to Fitzpatrick. The Patriots like to scheme against a the opposing teams best player which means that Brandon Marshall should draw the defenses attention away from Decker.
TE - Travis Kelce, KC - $6,000 vs. PIT: Kelce should continue to see an increase in targets after Jamaal Charles was injured and he may see even more this week as Jeremy Maclin still hasn't been cleared to play from a concussion he received last week.
K - Stephen Gostkowski, NE - $5,100 vs. NYJ: Rolling with the kicker that scores the most points.
DEF - Atlanta, ATL - $4,700 at TEN: Unfortunately the Broncos are on a bye this week but Atlanta draws a great matchup against a Titans team that giving up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
31.50 Fantasy Points
Devonta Freeman led the league in fantasy points this week, putting up 31.50 against the comically bad 49ers rushing defense. How bad are the 49ers, you ask? Freeman is the 6th back that they’ve given up 29 or more points to. Every single RB of note has scored double digits on them, with the exception of Todd Gurley in Week 1. Meanwhile you may be saying, “Great Devonta, but you got me eliminated with 6 yards last week”. Yes, 6 carries for 6 yards is a painful pill to swallow, but it’s not like Tevin Coleman dominated the carries last week – he only had 8. Look for Freeman to continue as the dominant back in the Falcons backfield and keep him in your lineup.
162 Rush Yards
Ty Montgomery, a guy who really isn’t a WR anymore, carried the ball 16 times against the Bears for an average just over 10 yards per carry. He added two TDs on the ground for a cool (cold, yesterday) 28.30 points. Despite his dual eligibility, he’s really not a WR anymore. With that being said, I found it interesting that no WR’s scored in the 20 point range - #1 was Brandin Cooks with 30.60 points, the next was Tyler Lockett with 19 points. The #10 WR for the week only scored 12.8 points, and that was Tyreek Hill all on one play. RBs, meanwhile, had 6 players score 20+ points, just showing what we always say – running backs are more valuable at the end of the season, but not necessarily the beginning.
14 Games in a Row
David Johnson continued his streak of consecutive games with 100+ yards from scrimmage, making it 14 games in a row, or all season long. There are several players tied with the NFL record of 15 games, but none of them have done it in a streak like Johnsons, and Johnson has a chance at being the only player to do it for all 16 games. He now has 6 multi TD games and 17 total TDs on the season. He’s no threat to Ezekiel Elliott in taking the rushing title, but his 800 receiving yards put him at 1938 total on the year, and with 2 games left, he’s got a long shot at breaking the all-time record of 2,509, set by his teammate Chris Johnson (when he had another name and another team). Unfortunately, he can’t just play the 49ers to finish the season.
20% Owned
Using our drinkfive.com league as a metric, I can “proudly” report that only 2 of the top 10 finishing TE’s were even owned for Week 15. Sure, maybe Cameron Brate should be owned, but the likes of Dion Sims, Erik Swoope and Ryan Griffin gracing the top 10 list makes one very nostalgic for the days of Gronkowski. TE streaming has turned into a dart throw with the dart board spinning in circles. Sure, Jordan Reed or Greg Olson could find their way onto this list tonight, but nothing about their play in the last couple of weeks fills me with confidence that they can break the 8 point barrier. Tight End has become a mystery fantasy position, with little to no consistency or predictability from week to week.
89% Completion Rate
Sunday night, Dak Prescott (or Rayne Dakota Prescott, The Fortress, thanks Pro Football Reference), completed 32 of 36 passes against the Bucs, posting a ridiculous 89% completion rate. He even added a TD on the ground, moving him to 5th overall in fantasy points at the QB position this season. In 2014, perhaps his best season so far, Tony Romo was the 11th best fantasy QB. Let’s also take a peek at Romo’s 2015 – he only played 4 games, and a 5:7 TD:INT ratio and was sacked 6 times. Those 4 games he played weren’t even consecutive. The QB controversy in Dallas has always been media driven and not because of the actual facts on the ground. Once you take Romo’s most recent performances into account, it’s really a no brainer that they would replace him with a guy who won 11 games in a row, and not look back. If you want QB controversy, go a couple hours south on I-45 to Houston, though that one seems a bit cut-and-dry as well.