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Week 3 is in the books and all I can say is it wasn't pretty.  Somehow the Dolphins needed overtime to finish off the hapless Browns last Sunday afternoon. If it wasn't for a 46-yard shank, the last of three missed field goals by freshly acquired Cody Parkey 236 people would have been eliminated from the pool.  As it stands 99 were eliminated with the bulk coming from Carolina and Arizona's losses bringing the running total down to 477 survivors.

As we move on to week 4, I feel that this has been the most uncomfortable I've felt picking thus far.  The first 3 weeks picks seemed obvious and reflected such in the individual pick breakdown.  This week I think we will see some more disparity in picks.  Three match-ups stood out to me as options for this week's pick. 

The first and probably the most popular pick would be the Redskins over the Browns. On the surface, this feels like a great pick at home and 7.5 point favorites coming off a big win against the Giants.  But I believe this could be a trap game.  The Browns could very well run a muck of this shoddy Redskins defense.  If the Browns can get ahead in this game and establish the run, I have little faith in Kirk Cousins to lead a comeback.

If I had to pick a second team to win this week it would be the Denver Broncos.  The Buccaneers just lost a home game to the Los Angeles Rams in which they let up 37 points, to the RAMS! I think that Chris Anderson has a big game and the Broncos win this one easily. The Broncos are looking every bit as good as last years super bowl team and I would argue better on offense.

But I elected to pass on this pick because there was another match-up I liked with the extra benefit of this particular team playing at home. That pick is the Arizona Cardinals. They are the biggest favorites this week by 8.5points against the very Rams I just mentioned.  Coming home after a Buffalo beat down to play a division foe they will be looking for some revenge. As long as Todd Gurley doesn't go nuts I think Arizona wins this game easily. 

So there is my two cents Cardinals, Broncos, Skins in that order.  I think you're good with any of the three but the Browns make me a little nervous.  I don't see many opportunities for them to win games this year and this might be the one. Only Detroit goes for broke.

Cheers, Drink Five!

OK, last week was just bad. I would like to offer my apologies…and so should the Steelers!

But again, your lowest score is removed so let’s also remove it from our memory – still plenty of season to play!

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – DENVER over New York Giants – The Denver defense is already referred to as the “No Fly Zone.” Should be a pretty easy day when Eli Manning will basically be throwing to waterboy level wideouts.

13 – ATLANTA over Miami – The Dolphins have officially been “Jay Cutler’d” It will be a rough rest of the season in South Beach.

12 – HOUSTON over Cleveland – Houston took two major blows to their defense last week…but they’re playing the Browns…sooooo….you know.

11 – BALTIMORE over Chicago – The Mitch Trubisky show hits the road for the first time. Pretty easy to see that the outcome won’t change with the time zone.

10 – TENNESSEE over Indianapolis – To say that the Titans 2017 have been disappointing so far would be an understatement. Lucky for them Andrew Luck isn’t back just yet.

9 – New England over NEW YORK JETS – Can’t say that I expected to see two teams over .500 in this game. What will be expected is the outcome though.

8 – WASHINGTON over San Francisco – Traveling across the country in search for your first win this season isn’t exactly the best way to go about it.

7 – KANSAS CITY over Pittsburgh – The Chiefs are clearly the best team in the league so far. But the fact that the Steelers ended the Chiefs season last year drops them down a few points in this game.

6 – JACKSONVILLE over Los Angeles Rams – Sooooooooo with how the first quarter of the season played out, this could be considered a possible Super Bowl matchup…just gonna let that sink in for a bit.

5 – OAKLAND over Los Angeles Chargers – The Raiders are just a different team with Derek Carr under center. If Carr plays, you can bump them up a few spots.

4 – CAROLINA over Philadelphia – Thursday Night gives us what should be the most exciting game of the week. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that EVEN AFTER THEIR SLOW START, THE PANTHERS WILL WIN THE NFC SOUTH.

3 – Green Bay over MINNESOTA – What is it about the Packers and Aaron Rodgers that makes you think they won’t have a chance to win every game they play?

2 – NEW ORLEANS over Detroit – I wouldn’t be surprised if the Adrian Peterson trade is very beneficial for the Saints. Peterson’s attitude may have been a bit of a distraction. At least it would be enough to win this week.

1 – ARIZONA over Tampa Bay – Obviously the trade was beneficial for the Cardinals. Finally they have someone after the David Johnson injury that will allow Carson Palmer not throw the ball 83 times a game.

And the winner for the 2017 NFL Survivor killer goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last week they laid an egg at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, driven by a 5 interception day from Ben Roethlisberger. In doing so they claimed another 127 victims in my pool and got the remaining entrants down to 157 from the original 1008 at the beginning of the season. When you pair this game with their week 3 loss to the Bears, I think it's safe to say nobody will be a bigger disappointment this season. I had high points on them in my confidence pools but fortunately for myself I went with the Eagles last week who crushed the Cardinals 34-7.

This week sees 3 teams favored by over 10 points and another 3 favored by over a touchdown. So basically, take a dart and throw it at the schedule and you should make it through this week safely. For me I was split between the 3 favored by 10, the Broncos, Texans, and Falcons. The Broncos coming out of the bye week with the best secondary in the league playing against the Giants who last week lost their top 3 receivers to injury and have no ability to run the ball, are the lock of the century. Go ahead and pick that if you want to feel warm and fuzzy. I however started looking further down the schedule and see other opportunities for a Broncos selection in later weeks. The same is true for the Texans, plus there is the added wild card of a winless Browns team fielding a new starting QB in this game. Who knew a failing Notre Dame QB would continue to fail on last year’s worst NFL team.

This brings me to my survivor selection, the Atlanta Falcons. So far this year the Falcons look poised to return to the Super Bowl and avenge last year’s second half blunder. When I look at the Falcons schedule this game is by far their easiest match-up and their remaining schedule sees all their tougher match-ups at home and quote un-quote easy games on the road. Coming out of their own bye week, I see them making easy work of the offensively inept Dolphins at home. Basically, score 20 points and the Dolphins will have no shot.

Cheers!

Drink Five

Denver Broncos

What’s changed since last year? Let’s start with Joe Flacco as the starting QB of the Broncos, that’ll be interesting. And ringmaster John Elway rolled the dice on another young QB in Drew Lock, selected #42 overall in the rookie draft. They recently picked up the former Lion Theo Riddick, though he has a fractured shoulder to work through (6-8 weeks), but the biggest offensive boon from a fantasy standpoint may come from rookie TE Noah Fant (TE20), who has been compared to a Jimmy Graham / Aaron Hernandez / Eric Ebron type of receiving Tight End.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Broncos’ receivers beyond Emmanuel Sanders (WR45) are a bit of a jumble right now (he’s the only WR on the roster that has had a 45-catch season in the NFL), but signs point to 2^nd year Courtland Sutton (WR38, drafted round 2, 2018) breaking out as he transitions to the #1 WR on the Broncos. 704 yards and 4 TDs on 42 receptions last year could lead to bigger and better, especially since he was pushed in as a rookie to fill the shoes of Demariyus Thomas after Thomas was traded to the Texans in late October.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Although his ADP is still very low, I’m hearing whispers from Denver beat reporters that Royce Freeman (10^th round ADP, RB39) will have an increased workload in 2019 – splitting time or even taking most of Phillip Lindsay’s (5^th round ADP, RB22) short-yardage and goal-line touches. This is not to say that Lindsay won’t have a good season – just that he’s likely being overvalued whereas Freeman should outperform his ADP.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Phillip Lindsay is currently the highest drafted Bronco with an ADP of 42 overall, but I would not consider him a stud – therefore Denver is currently bereft of any surefire game-winning players that you could draft with near 100% certainty in my mind.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? One player that may go undrafted in some leagues but could also fit the ‘sleeper’ tag and will be picked up on the waiver wire at some point during the season (early on, probably) is Daesean Hamilton (20^th round ADP, WR66). Hamilton ended the year averaging 9.5 targets over his last 4 games and will be the primary slot receiver for the Broncos. He could easily eclipse Courtland Sutton (and did last year as Sutton did not take off strong from the starting line), but will never be a #1 receiver (comps to Steve Johnson of the Bills who had several seasons of around 80 receptions for 1000+ yards).

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Noah Fant is more than likely the only rookie this year that will have a fantasy impact. Currently being drafted as the 20^th TE off the board, he will score some TDs and be a waiver wire fill-in at the very least. QB Drew Lock is not likely to play this season unless there is an injury to Joe Flacco, but that’s certainly a possibility, and round 6 WR flier Juwann Winfree is a developmental prospect who could be good down the road but doesn’t profile as impactful this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

What’s changed since last year? The Chiefs picked up WR Mecole Hardman (4.33-second 40-yard dash, yipes! 18^th round ADP, WR61) in round 2, and RB Darwin Thompson (19^th round ADP, RB60) in round 6 this year’s NFL draft. They signed free agent and former Jaguar Carlos Hyde (12^th round ADP, RB44), and they were able to keep Tyreek Hill (ADP 17, WR6) out of jail.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? I would say Sammy Watkins (9^th round ADP, WR34) but he already broke out with over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in 2015. 4^th year WR Demarcus Robinson (ADP 264, WR91) is a possible breakout candidate after the departure of Chris Conley (and previously Albert Wilson). Robinson will be going into a contract year and if Watkins can’t stay healthy again, Robinson should slot right in as the 3^rd option in the passing game, behind Hill and Kelce. He has reportedly been working with Mahomes on deep-ball plays, so that’s certainly promising.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? If you’re paying attention to the current situation at RB, there is a war waging. Rookie Darwin Thompson could challenge Carlos Hyde for the backup role, or even supplant Williams as the starter in Kansas City if he continues to show issues with his hamstring. Thompson flashed some good talent during the first preseason game and the Chiefs have not been particularly loyal to RBs since Andy Reid took the reins. Reid has already stated that a RBBC approach may be the best for this season, casting a shadow over the whole situation. Thompson is a high-risk, high-reward pick.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Chiefs have a player being drafted within the top 15 of every offensive position. In fact, if you take out Damien Williams (ADP 25, RB14), you get 3 guys in Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce that are all arguably top 5. But Mahomes and Kelce both have ADPs of #1 for their respective positions, so they are clearly the answer here. If in a standard draft only starting 1 QB, the most valuable over replacement player (VORP) award goes to Travis Kelce.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? There’s not much to work with here, but again I look at Darwin Thompson as a guy that will likely go undrafted unless chosen as a sleeper, and there is a high likelihood that either Damien Williams or Carlos Hyde have some kind of injury that will allow Thompson to climb up the depth chart, at least for a short time. Whoever the top RBs are on KC on any given Sunday, they will both hold fantasy value.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? I’ve covered Darwin Thompson – Mecole Hardman was being hyped up as a possible Tyreek Hill replacement/fill-in if Hill was to be disciplined by the NFL for issues off the field in the offseason. Hill was not suspended and Hardman will likely not have a fantasy relevant role in the current offense, barring injury, etc.

Los Angeles Chargers

What’s changed since last year? Tyrod Taylor was added and will serve as a great backup QB, and Tyrell Williams was released and picked up by the Raiders. Antonio Gates is again a free agent, and as long as Hunter Henry is healthy, this could be the first season that the Chargers won’t have Gates on their roster since 2003.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? This one is easy. 3^rd year WR Mike Williams (ADP 61, WR25) had 10 TDs in 2018 on 66 targets (43 receptions for 664 yards), but the departure of Tyrell Williams will open more targets for him in the offense immediately. The fact that the Chargers didn’t go out to get more receivers shows trust in his new role as the solid #2 WR. Williams played all 16 games last year after struggling a little with injuries in his rookie season.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Melvin Gordon (ADP 23, RB13) is holding out for a larger contract, and has officially requested a trade out of Los Angeles. Scary stuff. If the two sides come to an agreement and all is well, Austin Ekeler (8^th round ADP, RB34) will still have value as one of the better backups with pass-catching ability out of the backfield, but Justin Jackson (17^th round ADP, RB57) is a sleeper candidate that could give you an RB2/3 with the last pick of the draft. The question is, will Gordon’s situation be resolved or not? It’s currently pushing his ADP down further each week.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The top drafted player on the Chargers is Keenan Allen (ADP 28, WR11), and there is no reason why he shouldn’t finish the season with around 100 receptions, 1200 yards, and 6 TDs, just as he has for the previous two seasons. He has also not missed a game since 2016. Draft Allen confidently in all formats.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Travis Benjamin (ADP 291, WR99) should be able to secure the #3 WR spot behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and in an offense where Phillip Rivers has thrown for more than 4,000 yards 6 years in a row, Benjamin could absolutely be a waiver wire fill-in as a WR4/5 in some weeks this season.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Chargers drafted QB Easton Stick in round 5 as a developmental pick and possible successor to Phillip Rivers, but he’s not fantasy relevant at this point. No other offensive picks to mention this year.

Oakland Raiders

What’s changed since last year? There’s been quite a few changes in Oakland – perhaps they’re getting ready for the big change to Las Vegas, but I digress. The big move for the Raiders was to acquire Antonio Brown from the Steelers for a 3^rd and 5^th round pick. At the time, it seemed like a steal. Now it seems like the Steelers might have the last laugh. They also signed Tyrell Williams, formerly of the Chargers. Derek Carr’s favorite target last season, Jared Cook, is no longer on the team – but I think the new toys at WR should go a long way in consoling him. Finally, the Raiders used one of their three first round picks on a RB, Josh Jacobs from Alabama.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? The best breakout contender on the Raiders is JJ Nelson. This doesn’t mean that we’ve forgotten Tyrell Williams, it’s just that he basically already broke out in 2016 with over 1000 yards. But back to Nelson – he’s a burner who was drafted to the Cardinals back when Bruce Arians was the coach. He fits systems where you can go deep and take shots down the field. That’s not quite what the Raiders have been in the past, but with the other additions at WR, it’s certainly the direction that the team is heading this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Currently, Hunter Renfrow (ADP 375, WR113) is not being drafted, but could find his way into a big role this season. As long as he’s not singing, he has looked pretty good on Hard Knocks and seems to be incorporated into the offense already. It helps that basically every WR is new to the team this year. Renfrow is listed on the depth chart as the starting slot receiver, so expect him to see some looks early, especially since Carr likes to throw it over the middle.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Based on the advice of our resident Raiders expert, Tad Bukowski, he has stated firmly and unequivocally that Antonio Brown is still the stud WR that we all remember from years past. He’s currently sitting at ADP 22 (WR11) which is his cheapest draft cost since he was a rookie. Of course, that’s due to his new surroundings, but hey, AB is AB and it’s hard to argue against his six straight seasons with over 100 catches. He’s scored 67 touchdowns during that time as well.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Two guys that you can check out – Hunter Renfrow mentioned above) and Darren Waller, who was signed off the Ravens practice squad. Waller is currently the starting TE on the depth chart and has an ADP of 322 (TE27), so he’s likely to be a streaming TE option for the early part of the season. If he can fill the Jared Cook role from last season, then Waller is going to be fantasy relevant for sure. As for Renfrow, he will likely be on the waiver wire unless there’s a Raiders fan in your league – but he isn’t likely to stay there long.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The two main rookies on this team are Josh Jacobs (ADP 36, RB21) and Hunter Renfrow. The rest of the early picks the Raiders had were for the defense. Jacobs should lead the backfield in carries this season and is currently looked at as an RB2/3 and will likely be in most starting fantasy lineups this season. Renfrow has a ways to go to be fantasy relevant this season, but he is Tad’s pick on the Raiders to rise the ranks quickly and be a contributor to this offense.