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At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 1.20 pts

Dave has a rather specific prediction that says he will score between 6.1 and 8.0, I said under 6.1. Wright had just one target in an exciting game, netting him just 12 yards and no touchdowns. Wright is only played for his TD scoring (6 on the season) and really is only a last minute option. Dave drinks five for this one

Well, not so fast, just yet. Dave doubled down on this bet (double or nothing) for over 6.1 points for Wright. Well, Dave, I hope your beer is full, because Wright had 0.00 points on 2 targets. Drink five, then do it again!

Joe Flacco: Wk 10 vs TEN - 10.56 pts, Wk 12 @ NO - 13.92 pts, Wk 13 vs SD - 23.30 pts

Flacco hasn't been lighting up the world since his 5 TD game back in week 6, but his 23+ points against SD is the third time he's gone over 20 points this season. Flacco will go to Miami for Week 14, a team that is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing QB's. Flacco is clearly in the QB2 conversation, but does he need to be a sit this week? We will set the line at 14 points.

Both of us went under the line of 14 points for Flacco, and we’ll drink for this one. Flacco had an excellent fantasy day, throwing for 2 TD’s and rushing one in, he had his third best fantasy day of the season, putting up 25.36 points against the slipping Dolphins.

Mike Evans: Wk 11 vs ATL – 32.90 pts, Wk 12 @ CHI – 10.70 pts, Wk 13 vs CIN – 4.90 pts

Evans is a member of this year’s stellar WR rookie crop and was on his way to rookie of the year consideration for a while there. He scored 86.5 points in a 4 week stretch (9-12) and had 6 TD’s in that time. Last week he struggled, catching only 4 of 9 targets for 49 yards against the Bengals. This week it gets even harder, playing the Lions in Detroit. We’ll set Evans’s line at 11 points – can McCown get him the ball enough?

We agreed on this one as well, both of us going under 11 points for Evans. While he did struggle, catching on 4 of 11 targets, he managed to find the end zone twice, so his 4 for 45 and 2 TD line (16.50 points) is plenty to make us both drink this week.

DeSean Jackson: Wk 11 vs TB – 3.70 pts, Wk 12 @ SF – 3.90 pts, Wk 13 @ IND – 14.40 pts

Jackson is the victim of one of the more volatile QB situations in the league. The Redskins have had 3 starting QB’s this season, though it does appear that they will stick with Colt McCoy for the remainder of the season. This is good news for Jackson as he has 14 points per game when McCoy starts and he’s under 10 per game on average when he does not. This week, Jackson faces the Rams whom are giving up the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. Can Jackson keep his trend going upward? We will set the line for him at 12 points.

We split on this line, Dave going under 12 and me going over. This one, however, doesn’t really count as DeSean Jackson wound up sitting out the game on Sunday against the Rams. Jackson’s status for Week 15 is still up in the air, so make sure you’re checking the news later in the week on him.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 11 @ NO - 16.50 pts, Wk 12 @ HOU - 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts

Side note before we start, the Bengals just had 3 road games and won all 3 of them, a first in franchise history. Hill has been a big part of two of those wins, racking up over 30 points in the first two games, but only carrying the ball 13 times for 40 yards last week (3.1 ypc). That's quite disappointing, compared to the 4.9 ypc he had going into the game. Hill criticized the play calling, his OC promptly called him out, saying he needs to break more tackles and block better. Perhaps the fire has been lit under Hill's ass and he has a home game against the Steelers this Sunday to show he deserves time on the field instead of Giovani Bernard. We'll set the line for Hill at 10 this week, due to the Steelers only giving up 16 to opposing RB's and Gio getting back into the swing of things.

Hill was the choice in the Bengals backfield on Sunday, but the game got away from them once the fourth quarter came around. Hill ended the game with 6.7 points (8 for 46, 3 rec for 21) and that’s lower than the line we set at 10 points, which we both went over. Both of us drink, again!

Rashad Jennings: Wk 11 vs SF - 6.70 pts, Wk 12 vs DAL - 12.00 pts, Wk 13 @ JAX 21.40 pts

Jennings returned to the Giants lineup three weeks ago, and has been trending up ever since. His first game was shaky against the 49ers, but since then has been the RB2 you expected him to be. Andre Williams is basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes and all but being a goal line back for the Giants. Jennings will see the bulk of the work going forward, as his 26 carries in Jacksonville can attest. We'll set the line at 12 points for his Week 14 matchup in Tennessee.

I’m sensing a pattern here. Once again, we both went over and once again, we’re both wrong. Jennings had some injury issues crop up this week after we made our predictions, but he did play and finished the game with 2.20 points. Andre Williams started and was just fine against the worst run D in the league. So…We’ll drink our five and make sure to keep an eye on Jennings’s practice sessions this week ahead of his matchup with Washington.

Jason Witten: Wk 10 @ JAX - 9.30 pts, Wk 12 @ NYG - 9.00 pts, Wk 13 vs PHI - 0.80 pts

Tight Ends don't really seem to trend like QB/WR/RB, but let's give it a shot anyway. Witten has been a disappointment all season and while 30 yards and a TD in weeks 10 and 12 may seem acceptable, those are the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring weeks this season. Witten plays the "soft enough for a bear in the woods" Chicago Bears defense, so can we expect 9 points, or is he a definite sit?

Well, if there’s one trend, it’s that we were wrong about trends last week. Witten managed only 2.6 points in a great matchup against the Bears. His struggles to be the least bit relevant this year speak volumes and I think it’s safe to say that we’ve seen the end of the Jason Witten era in Dallas. We’ll drink for going under our predicted line and to Witten’s hall of fame career.

Finally, a bet where one of us was bound to win – because it was against each other. Dave bet that the Steelers would beat the Bengals, and while at the end of the 3^rd it looked like I might pull it out, the fourth quarter belonged entire to Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers. I’ll be providing the beers for tonight’s show, they’ll be good ones!

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts

Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8^th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.

Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts

Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is a MF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?

Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts

It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenom Keenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.

Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI – 22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts

Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.

Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts

Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 15 and we will recap the results next week.

Boom! The NFL trade deadline always brings with it tons of changes and this season has been no different: Golden Tate to the Eagles and Demaryius Thomas to the Texans are two recent developments that will have far-reaching consequences in fantasy football. Courtland Sutton will now get more targets in Denver along with Emmanuel Sanders, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay will both benefit from Tate's transfer to Philadelphia, and Nelson Agholor will likely exit stage left from fantasy relevance most weeks going forward. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 9 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

The trade deadline was yesterday, and it made a great wooshing sound as it went past. The NFL is considerably more active with trades during the season compared to when we started the site back in 2011. The trade deadline may not result in moves that tip the balance of the league, like in the MLB, but there’s plenty of fantasy relevant moves that just might tip the balance in your league. First, we’ll start with two trades that happened in the last couple weeks, then the three fantasy relevant trades that happened yesterday.

Carlos Hyde, Browns to the Jaguars – This trade was made in an attempt to fill in for Leonard Fournette, who can't stay on the field this year. The Jaguars really need help in their backfield, and Hyde is a reasonable upgrade and will split work with T.J. Yeldon. The Jaguars have shown that they cannot lean on the passing game. They have won only one game this season without Fournette in the lineup. Long story short, the Jags need to have a strong run game to have any chance to return to the AFC Championship game this year.

                Jaguars Fantasy Impact – The Jaguars are on bye this week, giving Hyde an extra week to get up to speed. Reports are that Fournette will also try to return for Week 10, but that’s far from certain, so we’ll see what the injury reports say next week. If Fournette returns, this would likely be at the expense of T.J. Yeldon’s touches. Hyde and Fournette will likely share the load, though both have been underwhelming this year. Fournette has just 90 scrimmage yards in two games and is a 50/50 chance to re-injure himself as hamstring injuries can be tricky. Hyde got only 6 carries against the Eagles last week, though it was just his first game as a Jaguar. This year, Hyde has a career low 3.3 yards per carry, and only had 6 catches in 6 games in Cleveland, after getting 59 last season. Hyde’s bright spot is that he’s found the end zone 5 times this year.   TL:DR; Hyde and Fournette will split work until one of them shows any glimpses of competence. T.J. Yeldon is the odd man out, IF Fournette plays. That’s (literally) a big if.

                Browns Fantasy Impact – Not only has the Browns backfield been shaken up by this move, but now they will have a new Head Coach and OC to work with on Sunday. It’s tough to say what the new crew will do, but they would be well advised to keep feeding Nick Chubb. Getting Chubb the ball is perhaps the entire point of this trade in the first place. Chubb has taken the ball 18 times in each of the last 2 games, tacking on 2 receptions as well. He leads the league with 6.1 yards per carry, so I expect Chubb to continue getting the ball, depending on game flow. The next 3 opponents for the Browns are the Chiefs, Falcons and Bengals – all teams that are in the top 8 for giving up points to opposing RBs. Duke Johnson used to play the change of pace role in this offense, but he has been a ghost most of the year. He’s lagging well behind last year’s numbers in every category, and his usage did not pick up in the last two weeks with Hyde gone. Johnson is talented and available in a lot of leagues, but cannot be counted on yet.                        TL:DR; Chubb’s stock is way up with this trade and could flirt with low RB1 status the next few weeks. Duke Johnson should be a worthy PPR flex play, but cannot be counted on for now.

Amari Cooper, Raiders to Cowboys – The story of this trade is the price that the Cowboys were willing to pay for Cooper. This doesn’t matter much for fantasy, but it is nice to see someone get completely dominated in a trade, just like you see in your own league. The Cowboys are desperate for a deep threat to relieve some pressure for Ezekiel Elliot, but this is unlikely to be the answer. In Oakland, the fire sale is in full effect after the trade of Khalil Mack to start the season.John Gruden is stockpiling 1^st round draft picks like they’re freeze-dried meals and Y2K is coming up. To be fair, it’s perhaps the only sensible move that the Raiders have made since Gruden took charge, and it’s mostly because it’s possible this goes down as one of the worst trades the Cowboys have made, considering this could wind up being a top-10 pick.

                Cowboys Fantasy Impact – Cooper obviously slides in as an every down receiver, and is probably in a better situation than he was in Oakland. He still hasn’t been active in Dallas, but there’s no fantasy relevant WR that he’s even displacing. Even so, I don’t expect Cooper to do very much. For a guy who was once thought of as a top 10 WR in the league (drafted 4^th overall in 2015), he’s fallen off a cliff. Since Week 9 of 2016, Cooper has only 4 games with 100+ yards during that span of 30 games. He reached that level 9 times in his first 24 games.                        TL:DR; Don’t count on Cooper to be fantasy relevant, and he’s not displacing anyone else on the Cowboys, so there’s no fantasy impact? I’m officially confused by this move.

                Raiders Fantasy Impact – The Raiders have only had one game since this trade, and against the Colts, when they were down by multiple scores and still put up 28 points, there were just 7 receptions spread among the 4 WRs that played in the game. Jordy Nelson had just one catch and cannot be counted on. Brandon LaFell is not going to pick up the slack. Jalen Richard wound up with 8 receptions, and it looks like he might be the only fantasy player on the Raiders who is making positive changes.       TL:DR; The Raiders are bad and they should feel bad. Richard might fill in and be a flex in PPR leagues, but seriously, don’t rely on the Raiders to win fantasy games.

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos to Texans – Now we’re on to the deadline-day trades. Thomas’s name was associated with several teams, but he wound up going to Houston to join one of the hottest teams in the league (5 wins in a row counts, right?). The Texans are clearly better when they have two deep threats, and with Will Fuller on the IR, they had a big hole to fill. Good on the Texans for going out and getting a reasonable replacement. Thomas has struggled this year, but he’s getting a large upgrade at QB. The Broncos are also in a partial rebuilding phase, and have been riding Emmanuel Sanders all year anyways. Courtland Sutton is a good looking rookie who needs more time on the field, so this move makes a lot of sense from both sides.

                Texans Fantasy Impact – This impact should be pretty straightforward. Will Fuller just put big numbers last week, then tore his ACL at the end of the game.Thomas will attempt to be a direct replacement for Fuller. Keke Coutee, if healthy, could be a wild card that takes a bit of work from Thomas, however there’s probably room for 3 WRs to be fantasy relevant if Deshaun Watson is playing as well as he can.           TL:DR; Fuller is out, Thomas is in. Coutee could be a wild card, but I would only count on the healthiest WR on the Texans, aside from that Hopkins guy. He’s pretty good.

                Broncos Fantasy Impact – It’s hard to increase Emmanuel Sanders’ performance on this season, considering he’s the #7 WR on the season. I expect Sanders to remain steady as he’s clearly the favorite target of Case Keenum. Courtland Sutton is the story here. The rookie has made several flashy plays this season, and now will be up for a lot more work than before. Sutton’s ceiling this year has been 3 receptions, so there’s a lot of room for growth there. He’s also averaging 19.1 yards per catch, so increased snaps, targets and receptions will help stretch the offense and will open up space for both Sanders and the running backs. The next 3 matchups for the Broncos is a mixed bag, so don’t expect immediate results.               TL:DR; Sanders remains a top 10 option, Sutton is now the new rookie hotness and he can quickly become a fantasy relevant WR.

Ty Montgomery, Packers to Ravens – This is a trade that was definitely not going to happen last Saturday, but was pretty obviously coming by Tuesday, due to Montgomery basically being blamed (rightfully so) for the Packers loss to the Rams. Montgomery’s boneheaded move got him traded for just a 2020 seventh round pick. The only way that could feel worse is if he was getting sent to the Raiders. The Ravens probably didn’t need another RB on their team, but Ozzie Newsome knows a bargain when he sees one.

                Ravens Fantasy Impact – I’m don’t think that Montgomery is worthy of weekly fantasy starts, considering that he’s going to be firmly behind Alex Collins on the depth chart. I don’t expect him to take much work away from Collins, so you can relax there if Collins is on your team. Buck Allen looks like the odd man out with this move, but since he’s not very relevant this year, that’s not a big change. Montgomery is only owned in 17% of Yahoo leagues, and that’s probably right. He can stay on the waiver wire for now.            TL:DR; Alex Collins stays the same, Buck Allen will lose snaps, but Montgomery isn’t even worth owning, so overall, there’s not much change.

                Packers Fantasy Impact – The Packers backfield has long been thought of as a potential El Dorado, but usually winds up being fool’s gold instead. Montgomery’s 6 touches per game will need to go somewhere, yes, but adding 6 touches per game to Aaron Jones is not how this math is going to work out. Yes, Jones is the back to own on the Packers, but the Packers never seem to commit to the run, or even one RB. Jamaal Williams also stands to benefit, but much like Buck Allen, he wasn’t fantasy relevant in the first place. This little bump is unlikely to change things on that front. I think the real impact of this move will be the message that’s sent to the rest of the team.                 TL:DR; Don’t fuck with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Jones needs to get the ball more, but probably won’t. Still, he should be rostered everywhere.

Golden Tate, Lions to Eagles – Wrapping up our trade discussion is the best offensive player to be traded on Tuesday, Golden Tate. Tate gets the rare double bye week this season, which sucks for those of you with him on your team. Tate is averaging 10.5 points per game this season, which is good for top 25 in both average and overall points. This is the one trade that I wasn’t expecting. The Lions are looking to get something out of Tate instead of letting him walk at the end of the year. They know they aren’t likely to move on to the playoffs. The Eagles are trying to get rid of their Super Bowl hangover, and as a person who has had hangovers before, sometimes you just gotta try something different.

                Eagles Fantasy Impact – This is the toughest impact for me to figure out. I don’t expect Alshon Jeffery to lose any work. He has 4 TDs in 5 games and is averaging nearly 70 yards per game this year. Nelson Agholor is likely the odd man out, as he plays in the slot like Tate, but is not nearly as prolific as a run after the catch guy. Tate is averaging nearly 3 yards per catch more than Agholor, and as a slot receiver, those are all yards that Tate has earned by himself. Still, I’m not sure how this situation is really going to shake out for the 4-4 Eagles.            TL:DR; Tate will remain a WR3, likely at the expense of Nelson Agholor. Don’t expect Alshon Jeffery’s value to go up or down significantly. Also I’m the least certain about this than any other team listed here.

                Lions Fantasy Impact – The Lions are going to continue throwing the ball a lot. Stafford has 273 yards per game this year, and that’s a lot of yardage to go around. Marvin Jones is likely to see a small boost in his targets. I expect last year’s rookie Kenny Golladay to be the biggest beneficiary of this move, similar to Courtland Sutton. Look for Brandon Powell, an undrafted free agent and punt returner to get a look in the slot. Realistically, Theo Riddick is the one who’s likely to absorb those passes that are over the middle, short yardage, and third down work.                 TL:DR; Jones and Golladay will see  a bump, Powell is going to get a look, but isn’t fantasy relevant. Riddick is going to be a PPR nut once again.