Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

95% Completion Rate

Minshew Mania is alive and well in Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew led the Jaguars to victory over the much-hyped Colts. So much for the tank in Jacksonville, though if we learned anything from the Dolphins last year, a tank mentality is generally only present in the front office. The players and coaches never want to tank. I say bravo Minshew. He was brilliant, completing 19 of 20 passes for a 95% completion rate. He has the third highest passer rating so far in Week 1, behind only the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, and perennial MVP candidate Russell Wilson. Minshew’s 20.82 fantasy points are only good for 12^th best this week, but he finished ahead of Mahomes and is very much in the conversation as an every week QB2 and a good streaming QB option.

14 Receptions

DeAndre Hopkins had a career high 14 receptions in his first game with the Cardinals. By contrast, the Texans WRs had only 13 total receptions. Hopkins’ previous career high was 12 receptions, which he achieved only once. Sunday’s performance with his new QB Kyler Murray is just a signal of what’s to come on this high-powered offense that now has a true #1 option. It also highlights how much the Texans missed their former #1 option on offense. Back to Arizona, who were very impressive in defeating last year’s NFC champs. Kyler Murray did not need to do a ton in the passing game – only 12 of his 26 completions went to someone not named DeAndre. Murray’s real contribution to this game came on the ground, he had 91 rushing yards along with another TD. Murray and Hopkins both finished as the 5^th highest scoring fantasy player at their respective positions.

3 WRs in the Top 11

Perhaps the Packers brass knows what they’re doing after all, when it comes to WRs. Aaron Rodgers’ attitude towards his team was the subject of a lot of offseason talk. They did not acquire any new talent for Rodgers to play with, which was seen by many as a mistake. Rodgers, the true professional that he is, just poured himself a tall glass of tequila and made the best out of what he had to work with. 3 of his WRs finished in the top 11 at their position this week, with Davante Adams holding the top spot with a gaudy stat line of 14 receptions for 156 yards and 2 scores. Marquez Valdes-Scantling put up 17.6 points, good for 9^th and Allen Lazard was right behind him at 16.2 points and 11^th on the week. As for Rodgers, he was just the QB2 on the week, throwing for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns, totaling 30.76 points. Next up for Rodgers is Detroit, who just made Mitchell Trubisky look like the right choice for the Bears. Look out NFC North – Rodgers is about to rampage through your division.

3 of the top 11 TEs

Over the course of a season, the better TEs generally will rise to the top, but it’s often very hard to predict them outside of maybe a handful at best. This season appears to be no different. Only 3 of the top 11 TEs in Week 1 are even rostered in our drinkfive fantasy league. These top 11 TEs all scored at least 10 points, so they would have all ben fantastic starts, if you were able to take the leap in Week 1 and avoid many of the bigger names that were drafted higher. Week 1 saw Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson and David Njoku all put up at least 50 yards and a TD – all now hot waiver wire pickups. Speaking of the wire, 4 guys in the top 11 are owned in 27% or fewer leagues on Fleaflicker – David Njoku, Logan Thomas, Jordan Akins and Jimmy Graham. Good luck picking the right guys on the waiver wire and not the ones who are a flash in the pan. I’m sure next week this column will feature another bunch of TEs putting up points that nobody started.

3 First Round Duds

Of the top 12 players drafted in 2020 (ranked by ADP), 3 of them were duds this week. We’re still waiting to see the results from Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley’s games tonight, but so far only 3 guys have disappointed out of the first round, and I think that’s a good consistency. The rest of the players drafted in the first round turned in really respectable to great stat lines, including the top RB and WR. We got disappointing performances from Michael Thomas (3 rec, 17 yards), Joe Mixon (69 yards, 1 rec for 2 yards and 1 fumble) and Nick Chubb (60 yards, 1 rec for 6 yards and 1 fumble). I expect all 3 players to recover nicely, especially Michael Thomas, who has now been held below 5 receptions in consecutive regular season games for the first time since Weeks 11 & 12 in 2018. Meanwhile, both Mixon and Chubb will need to help their teams find some sort of groove, as both teams combined for only 19 points.

Here's a sneak peek of tonight's Fantasy Finish Line Podcast with Dave and I. We'll discuss news, all the rapid changes in rosters in the league, and random stuff that comes up along the way. Make sure to tune in at 9pm on YouTube.

• Where do we start? First off, there’s the covid news. Aaron Rodgers tested positive, and he’s out for Week 9’s game against the Chiefs. The Packers 3rd string QB is out too, and it’s certainly possible that Jordan Love can test positive before Sunday as well. Blake Bortles was signed earlier today and spent training camp with the Packers, so he’ll slot in if everything goes haywire for the Packers. Davante Adams was placed on the covid list on 10/25 so should be cleared to return this week. Adams and Jones remain a must start against a poor Chiefs defense. Allen Lazard has been taken off the covid list, so that’s a good sign for Adams being available on Sunday.

• Henry Ruggs….lots has been said about him, but fantasy wise - Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow should see a bit more usage, but I expect Zay Jones to be the one to get the deep targets. Ruggs was in on 65-80% of snaps, but only saw about 5 targets per game. Renfrow should see an increase in snaps as he was more of a 55-65% guy and could see a bump to his 7 targets per game.

• Saquon Barkley is also on the covid list, so even if his ankle is rehabbed, he won’t be returning this week. The Giants are on bye the following week. Also with the Giants, Kenny Golladay returned to practice today, and Sterling Shepard looks like he’ll be out at least through the bye next week. The WR group for the Giants continues to be a revolving door, and your decision on who to start will likely go right up to game time on Sunday.

• Dak Prescott is back at practice this week, it would appear that the Cooper Rush era will be put on hold for now. Michael Gallup has been designated to return from IR, but still has not been active.

• Calvin Ridley stepped away from the Falcons indefinitely, and abruptly, on Sunday morning. It’s always important to watch those inactives! The biggest beneficiary of this will probably be Russell Gage, with Kyle Pitts now being the primary target in the offense. I expect Gage’s snap count to go way up, and his zero targets last week to be a fluke. 

• Odell Beckham Jr. appears to be on the way out in Cleveland. They did not find a trade partner for him, so, considering the team asked him not to come in, he will likely be put on waivers and then cut if nobody claims him. Plenty of teams would probably take a chance on him, with the Saints high on that list, but it seems like his days in Cleveland are done. He’s averaging less than 6 targets per game, and playing less than 70% of snaps. His presence won’t be missed. Jarvis Landry will continue to be the only weekly start catching passes for the run-heavy Browns.

• Christian McCaffrey has been designated to return from IR, right on schedule with his initially reported timeline. This doesn’t need to officially happen until Saturday in order to play on Sunday, so keep an eye on the news. As usual, McCaffrey should be in your starting lineup if he’s playing.

• DeAndre Hopkins is not practicing this week. He only played in 15 snaps last Thursday night, apparently on some of those he snuck in and wasn’t supposed to be on the field. He’s one of the few players that can perform well if he does not practice all week, so just keep an eye on his status on Sunday - he does play a late afternoon game. He needs to be in your lineup if he’s playing. Kyler Murray also did not practice today, but he should be good to go this week after injuring his ankle late in the game last Thursday night.

• Is there such a thing as WR burnout? Michael Thomas led the league in receptions in 2018 and 2019, with a record-breaking 149 catches in ‘19. Since then he’s played in just 7 games and has announced that he won’t be returning in 2021. He’s still under contract for 2022 and will be 29 at that time. Expect the Saints to make a play for Odell Beckham once he is finally cut, or any other free agent WR for that matter.

• Derrick Henry suffered a (fantasy) season ending injury on Sunday and is supposed to be out for 6-10 weeks. An extremely optimistic outlook might have him back in time for the fantasy playoffs, but I find that to be unlikely at best. If you have the luxury of a free IR spot, then definitely use it. Otherwise I think it’s safe to drop him and let someone else waste a roster spot on him in the hopes he returns in Week 16 or 17 of the NFL season. If the Titans are in the playoffs at that time, they would be smart to just hold him until the playoffs start. If they are eliminated, then there’s no reason to bring him back. Jeremy McNichols stands to see a big increase in carries, and the passing game will probably also see a boost for the Titans. It remains to be seen how the Titans want to use Adrian Peterson, and how much use he actually gets.

• Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Saints win against the Bucs and is out for the rest of the season, and probably out of New Orleans, practically speaking. For now, we’ll see a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian under center for the Saints. This doesn’t affect the Saints fantasy players much because nobody was doing anything other than Kamara anyways! (True - Marquez Callaway has been a flex play from weeks 3-5 but that’s about it, only putting up 3 fantasy points in each of the last two matchups).