Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

31.50 Fantasy Points

Devonta Freeman led the league in fantasy points this week, putting up 31.50 against the comically bad 49ers rushing defense. How bad are the 49ers, you ask? Freeman is the 6^th back that they’ve given up 29 or more points to. Every single RB of note has scored double digits on them, with the exception of Todd Gurley in Week 1. Meanwhile you may be saying, “Great Devonta, but you got me eliminated with 6 yards last week”. Yes, 6 carries for 6 yards is a painful pill to swallow, but it’s not like Tevin Coleman dominated the carries last week – he only had 8. Look for Freeman to continue as the dominant back in the Falcons backfield and keep him in your lineup.

162 Rush Yards

Ty Montgomery, a guy who really isn’t a WR anymore, carried the ball 16 times against the Bears for an average just over 10 yards per carry. He added two TDs on the ground for a cool (cold, yesterday) 28.30 points. Despite his dual eligibility, he’s really not a WR anymore. With that being said, I found it interesting that no WR’s scored in the 20 point range - #1 was Brandin Cooks with 30.60 points, the next was Tyler Lockett with 19 points. The #10 WR for the week only scored 12.8 points, and that was Tyreek Hill all on one play. RBs, meanwhile, had 6 players score 20+ points, just showing what we always say – running backs are more valuable at the end of the season, but not necessarily the beginning.

14 Games in a Row

David Johnson continued his streak of consecutive games with 100+ yards from scrimmage, making it 14 games in a row, or all season long. There are several players tied with the NFL record of 15 games, but none of them have done it in a streak like Johnsons, and Johnson has a chance at being the only player to do it for all 16 games.  He now has 6 multi TD games and 17 total TDs on the season. He’s no threat to Ezekiel Elliott in taking the rushing title, but his 800 receiving yards put him at 1938 total on the year, and with 2 games left, he’s got a long shot at breaking the all-time record of 2,509, set by his teammate Chris Johnson (when he had another name and another team). Unfortunately, he can’t just play the 49ers to finish the season.

20% Owned

Using our drinkfive.com league as a metric, I can “proudly” report that only 2 of the top 10 finishing TE’s were even owned for Week 15. Sure, maybe Cameron Brate should be owned, but the likes of Dion Sims, Erik Swoope and Ryan Griffin gracing the top 10 list makes one very nostalgic for the days of Gronkowski. TE streaming has turned into a dart throw with the dart board spinning in circles. Sure, Jordan Reed or Greg Olson could find their way onto this list tonight, but nothing about their play in the last couple of weeks fills me with confidence that they can break the 8 point barrier. Tight End has become a mystery fantasy position, with little to no consistency or predictability from week to week.

89% Completion Rate

Sunday night, Dak Prescott (or Rayne Dakota Prescott, The Fortress, thanks Pro Football Reference), completed 32 of 36 passes against the Bucs, posting a ridiculous 89% completion rate. He even added a TD on the ground, moving him to 5^th overall in fantasy points at the QB position this season. In 2014, perhaps his best season so far, Tony Romo was the 11^th best fantasy QB. Let’s also take a peek at Romo’s 2015 – he only played 4 games, and a 5:7 TD:INT ratio and was sacked 6 times. Those 4 games he played weren’t even consecutive. The QB controversy in Dallas has always been media driven and not because of the actual facts on the ground. Once you take Romo’s most recent performances into account, it’s really a no brainer that they would replace him with a guy who won 11 games in a row, and not look back. If you want QB controversy, go a couple hours south on I-45 to Houston, though that one seems a bit cut-and-dry as well. 

Week 10, already? Listen up, that only leaves us with 4 weeks to get your team into tip-top shape for the fantasy playoffs in most leagues. Pay special attention to the rankings and news this week as you may be picking up guys that will help you on the road to the championship trophy. Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Drew Brees, David Johnson (if he can get cleared in time), D.J. Chark, Jonnu Smith, and Miami Dolphins DST.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

It is that time of year again. The time when fantasy football players start waking up from a long Winter slumber and taking a look at NFL rosters with a mix of surprise, excitement, and terror. In this two-part feature, I will take you on a trip through every team in the NFL to highlight some of the major fantasy-relevant offseason personnel moves. We'll start with the AFC. From Stefon Diggs to Melvin Gordon, quite a few big names have seen changes of scenery this offseason. 

AFC East

New England Patriots: Obviously, Tom Brady skipping town to join the Buccaneers is the big news here, but an arguably more interesting turn of events is that 2^nd year QB Jarrett Stidham is now the incumbent starter. The Pats did not select a QB in the draft, but there are a few veterans floating around in free agency: Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, and Blake Bortles among them, but it is not likely that New England moves in that direction. Mohamed Sanu was not cut as some expected, leaving last year’s cast of characters plus recent acquisition from the Chiefs, Damiere Byrd, as well as 2020 draft pick Devin Asiasi as this season’s primary pass-catchers.

Buffalo Bills: The Bills brought in some talent from out of town in Stefon Diggs, a major offensive gain for Josh Allen’s offense. They also let Frank Gore walk in free agency, getting signed by the Jets in what will likely be Gore’s last residency (how many times have we said that before?).

New York Jets: Frank Gore is back together again with Adam Gase to find some way to string together a few more 100-yard games as depth to incumbent RB Le’Veon Bell, and wide receiver Breshad Perriman was signed from the Bucs. This helps, but they will still need more help at the receiver position with Robby Anderson departing.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins acquired RBs Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, and drafted Tua Tagovailoa to be the QB of the future. Maybe it is looking up in Miami?

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Traded TE Hayden Hurst to the Falcons for two draft picks this year, including the 2^nd round pick they used to select RB J.K. Dobbins who will be groomed as the feature back in Baltimore. The rest is business as usual for a team that did not need much help on offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The surging Steelers defense can’t win games by itself, and so Pittsburgh added more offensive components to try and compete in 2020, bringing in TE Eric Ebron and drafting both RB Anthony McFarland Jr and WR Chase Claypool as high-upside depth at those positions who will both likely see regular snaps in their rookie years.

Cleveland Browns: Case Keenum was solidified as the Browns’ backup with a three-year contract, and Cleveland signed former Falcons TE Austin Hooper for a stunning $44 million dollar contract with $23 million guaranteed. Good luck, Cleveland – you will need it.

Cincinnati Bengals: Clearly the big conversation centers around #1 draft pick Joe Burrow becoming the new signal caller in Cincinnati. Out with Andy Dalton. The Bengals also drafted a new target in WR Tee Higgins.

AFC South

Houston Texans: It has been quite the offseason for Bill O’Brien and the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins is now an Arizona Cardinal, and in his place the Texans acquired Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. David Johnson will take over duties as the primary ball carrier from departing free agent RBs Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde.

Tennessee Titans: Delanie Walker and Dion Lewis were cut, carving a more prominent role for incumbent TE Jonnu Smith and the Titans drafted RB Darrynton Evans in order to try and bolster what is a very thing depth chart behind featured running back Derrick Henry. Newly re-signed Ryan Tannehill will try to come close to the high bar he set for himself in the 2019 season.

Indianapolis Colts: Washed up? Ha! The Colts signed Philip Rivers to lead the offense in 2020 for a $25 million price tag. If he fails, they will go right back to Jacoby Brissett. Indianapolis also drafted RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman who should immediately slot into the starting lineup. Should we mention former Bears TE Trey Burton? I guess.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Needing a starting TE, the Jaguars signed former Bengal Tyler Eifert, which will reunite him with OC Jay Gruden in Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew will retain the starting role, although the Jaguars did draft QB Jake Luton but it would be a surprise to see him making starts this season.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: Fantasy football managers should be excited about the Chiefs drafting RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who will have an immediate role in the offense. Kansas City also acquired TE Ricky Seals-Jones and some made some other depth positional signings, but not much else has changed on offense. Why mess with a good thing, right?

Denver Broncos: Melvin Gordon is now a Bronco, which likely minimizes the fantasy value of Phillip Lindsay and relegates Royce Freeman to a backup role. Starting QB Drew Lock got some new toys in the draft in WRs Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The Broncos have very little excuse not to improve on their 7-9 record from 2019.

Las Vegas Raiders: It is going to be tough to say ‘Las Vegas’ when referring to the Raiders but we will do our best. Henry Ruggs III was the fastest receiver at the combine, so clearly the Raiders had to draft him. Regardless of how that pans out it will improve the talent in the receiver room in Las Vegas. The Raiders also acquired Marcus Mariota and Jason Witten, but maybe the latter signing was just so that Gruden could have someone closer to his age to hang out with on the sideline.

Los Angeles Chargers: Let us start with replacing Philip Rivers at QB. Ok, insert Justin Herbert. The Chargers also drafted RB Joshua Kelley who should get some work right away behind starter Austin Ekeler, and WR K.J. Hill who I have seen talked up as one of the steals of the 2020 draft. We’ll see Chargers, we’ll see.

Mike Davis (CAR) – So, it’s the end of the world as McCaffrey owners know it, and they won’t be fine for 4-6 weeks until he returns. In the meantime, Mike Davis was a hot commodity on the waiver wire. Davis could hardly get anything going last year, and his 8 receptions in garbage time last week surpassed his catch total for all of 2019. Aside from garbage time, which the Panthers are likely to find themselves in most weeks, I don’t expect Davis to be able to do very much at all. This week, the Panthers have to travel across the country to LA and play the Chargers, a team that seems to play up and down to their competition. Down is the keyword this week, I expect this game to mostly be a lot of bleh with some meh thrown in. I don’t expect much out of Davis this week, or at all while McCaffrey is out to be honest. He is not a suitable replacement in your lineup for CMC and you need to rely on the bench depth that you drafted instead of a desperation waiver wire pickup.

David Johnson (HOU) – Johnson briefly, very briefly, reminded us on opening night of the player he used to be. Last week was a different story. Given the same opportunities (11 carries, 4 targets each game), he managed a mere 50 yards from scrimmage against the Ravens. This week gets no easier when the Texans travel the Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense completely shut down Saquon Barkley in week 1 and are giving up the 4^th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. With the Texans struggling this year after inexplicably trading away their best player not named DeShaun Watson, it’s going to take some time and more than an RB past his prime to fix this team. David Johnson is a bad fantasy start this week.

Jordan Reed (SF) – Reed found the end zone twice on Sunday and reminded us all of better times, like way back in 2015 when he could score TDs and we didn’t have to wear masks everywhere. If George Kittle sits, then Reed is going to be his replacement. While Kittle may be healthier than last week, he might still sit considering all the chirping that the 49ers have done regarding the turf at Metlife Stadium, where they played last week and will play again this week. This leaves a perfect storm of Jordan Reed completely returning to the player that we know him to be – a guy who gets injured all the time. Reed seems to be perfectly set up to get bitten by the turf monster if he does get the start this week, and I freely admit that I am not using a lot of numbers to make this call. Just don’t play Jordan Reed because he’s going to let you down as he has in many years past.

Justin Herbert (LAC) – Herbert had an impressive game last week when he was thrust into the starting role just before kickoff. Without any time to think about it, he scrambled well and threw the ball with a rocket arm, if not perfect accuracy. He did seem to make a couple of rookie mistakes, like the INT he threw late in the game to let the Chiefs back in it. This week he faces the Panthers and surprisingly, they have given up the 2^nd fewest points to opposing QBs. Perhaps this is due to the fact that they’re letting everybody and their mother run rampant over them. I expect a whole week to think about the start to make Herbert look more like a typical rookie, and for the Chargers to really lean on the run game. So, Herbert was only relevant in 2 QB leagues. Definitely roster him, but I wouldn’t dive in and start him until he puts a couple of good games together.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Once or twice a year, Matty Ice is going to deliver you a proper dud. The Bears are giving up the 4^th fewest points to opposing QBs, so even though Ryan has had a good streak to start the season, I think he’s going to run into a wall this week in Chicago. The Bears limited Matt Stafford to 1 TD in Week 1, and kept Daniel Jones under 10 fantasy points last week, so they’ve had a strong showing every week so far. The only thing that Ryan might have going for him is that he will probably throw the crap out of the ball to try and get out of the 0-2 hole the Falcons find themselves in. This is just going to lead to turnovers and more misery as the Falcons find themselves as the best 0-3 team, and the Bears will find themselves as the worst 3-0 team.