Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Relatively safe slate of games last week, with only Carolina claiming 4 victims, bringing my big pool down to 58 survivors. The Bears might be up for spoiler of the year award this season by only showing up for games they have no business winning.

Congratulations if you went with my pick last week. Dallas delivered in a big way winning 40-10 against the 49ers.

This week's pick is the Minnesota Vikings in their match-up against the Cleveland Browns. There is so much I love about this game. First, it has been proven through repeated testing that only half the teams scheduled ever show up in London for the game. Next, this is a great spot to use your Vikings pick. They are normally a tough team to be confident in since they are lacking their starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, and have been borderline inept on offense since.

It's tough to have faith in a team that is usually in close games, but this week they get the Cleveland Shit Browns and will roll to a double digit victory. Fortunately for west coast fans this game will be on at 6:30 am and can be completely ignored.

So you've made it to the fantasy playoffs - congratulations! Now let's get down to business and pick the best plays for this week to move you to the next round. Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Kyler Murray, Phillip Rivers, Kenyan Drake, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Jamison Crowder, Anthony Firkser, and Dallas Cowboys D/ST.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Philadelphia Eagles

What’s changed since last year? The Eagles acquired Jordan Howard (WR34) from the Bears and signed Desean Jackson (WR50) as a free agent. Both guys look to be fantasy relevant this year, but will likely be later round picks, with Howard going in the 9^th and Jackson going in the 14^th rounds on average. Nick Foles has also moved on, so the Superbowl MVP and safety blanket for Carson Wentz is gone.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? The Eagles are pretty set at WR right now, but TE Dallas Goedert could be a potential breakout. He had a good catch percentage last season, hauling in 33 of his 44 targets for 334 yards and 4 TDs last season. The Eagles run a lot of “12 personnel” which has 2 tight ends on the field. With Zach Ertz drawing a lot of attention, and Desean Jackson’s speed, Goedert could find a lot of 1 on 1 opportunities over the middle of the field.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Currently, the best value I see on this team is Desean Jackson late in drafts and Dallas Goedert as an easy free agent pickup after the draft is over.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Zach Ertz is currently the consensus TE2 and being drafted at the end of the third round. With the scarcity at the top of the position, I don’t mind taking him if you can get him at the end of the third or beginning of the 4^th. I do suspect that his ADP will rise as the draft season heats up based on his massive numbers from last season, especially in PPR leagues.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Dallas Goedert is a good handcuff for Ertz if you do draft him early, but chances are he will remain on the waiver wire for at least the first few weeks of the season. If you do not take a TE early and have a deep bench, Goedert is a good add for depth and has some breakout potential. JJ Arcega-Whiteside is another player who is not being drafted and could contribute to the team, especially if any of the starting WRs goes down.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Miles Sanders is the main rookie to know, as he’s going to compete with Jordan Howard for the bulk of the carries. The RB group in Philly is crowded, and includes Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement and Darren Sproles – all of whom have contributed in big ways in the last couple of seasons. As mentioned earlier, JJ Arcega-Whiteside is behind a lot of veterans on the depth chart, but could see more action if there’s injury, which is a safe bet in the NFL. Arcega-Whiteside could also see more playing time if Nelson Agholor remains underwhelming.

Dallas Cowboys

What’s changed since last year? Cole Beasley has left for Buffalo, leaving his 87 targets behind. In his place, the Cowboys signed Randall Cobb. Last season, Cobb had just 38 catches on 61 targets, which is a dismal 62% catch rate. If Cobb could not produce with Aaron Rodgers last season when he was short on WRs, then I don’t expect him to turn it around in Dallas. Cobb’s ADP of 219 (WR74) backs me up as someone who is not draftable. Jason Witten returns as their TE. He spent a year in the booth with ESPN and will not be missed by viewers who are not his mother. Witten returning is probably not a guarantee for much production, however with the lack of depth at TE across the league, he’s at least fantasy relevant. Witten was the 10^th best TE in 2017 (his last season) , but will still be an upgrade over Blake Jarwin, who was TE26 last season. His ADP of 284 means that he’s a waiver pickup if you want him.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? I don’t want to force this category, and obviously there is not going to be an actual breakout on every team. I will drop one name, however. Michael Gallup had a poor catch rate, but was an outside guy and had a very solid 15.4 yards per reception. If the Cobb experiment doesn’t work out (it won’t), then Gallup could find himself getting a few more targets opposite Amari Cooper.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Michael Gallup’s ADP is currently 163 (WR57) and he can basically be taken at the end of drafts as a flyer. I also think that Dak Prescott is decent value, his ADP is 139 (QB21) and will go undrafted in some leagues. Prescott has been remarkably consistent and did show an uptick last season when Amari Cooper joined the team. He also has 6 rushing touchdowns in each of his 3 seasons so far – providing a pretty decent floor for a backup QB on your team, or a second guy in a 2 QB league.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Easy – Ezekiel Elliott. This is not a situation like Bell where Zeke can sit out a year and move on after that. Zeke is still under contract through next year, and then they can start putting the franchise tag on him. He will play and he was the only player last season to carry the ball over 300 times. He is a first round pick in all formats (ADP 4/RB 4) and he’s firmly in the top tier of running backs this season.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? In week one or two, you may find Michael Gallup on the waiver wire, and if Jason Witten has a good performance to start, you’ll also see him being picked up based on his name alone. That being said, I don’t see a lot of good fantasy depth on this team. You’re basically going to want Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott and maybe Dak Prescott. After that, it’s difficult to find any fantasy relevance on the Cowboys.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Again, I’m not going to force any of these categories. The Cowboys didn’t draft a skill position until the 4^th round with Tony Pollard at RB. His ADP is currently 209, which shows that people really aren’t concerned with him taking Zeke’s spot, despite reportedly playing well with Zeke out of camp. Pollard will not be relevant unless Zeke can’t/doesn’t play at some point.

Washington Redskins

What’s changed since last year? The Redskins had a carousel at QB last season, and I expect more of the same this year – so I suppose that there’s not a fundamental change there. Colt McCoy sits on top of the depth chart in the preseason, with Case Keenum right behind him. Alex Smith is still out from his broken leg last year, and first round pick Dwayne Haskins is being brought along, but isn’t a threat to start the season. I would not be surprised if every one of those guys got a start this year. They did lose Jameson Crowder to the Jets, though his 388 yards and 49 targets won’t be hard to replace. In fact, the leading receiver last year was Jordan Reed, with only 558 yards. No receivers had more than 2 TDs on the team, so it’s safe to say that the receiving group will be better this year, no matter what happens.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Paul Richardson, if healthy (recovering from a shoulder injury last November), could be someone who can finally live up to his potential. This is his 6^th season in the league, though he’s only started 23 games total. His ADP of 269 (WR88) makes him undraftable and he is, admittedly, a long shot here. Derrius Guice had to sit out last season, and has been nursing a hamstring injury this year. Despite this, he is the highest Washington player on the ADP list (ADP 65/RB 30). Guice has the most potential of the unknown talents on the team, but he’s yet to see a single snap in the NFL. We’re talking potential here and there’s not much more to go on.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Well, I don’t know about sleepers as in players who will surprise you, but there’s great value for Adrian Peterson at an ADP of 140 (RB51) and Chris Thompson at ADP 192 (RB63). The best WR on the team last year, Josh Doctson, has an ADP of 285 (WR94). The leading pass catcher on the team, Jordan Reed, has an ADP of 155 (TE16). Basically, you can have any of the “leaders” from the Redskins last year. The Redskins could very well be the least drafted team in fantasy football this year.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? None. This is a stud-less team. They are so far away from having a fantasy stud that were I to suggest one, you would immediately close this article.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Basically any of the players mentioned earlier. The entire team will likely be available on the waiver wire early in the season, so if the Redskins do manage to have a good start, there will be plenty of options available. Of course, they play the Eagles and Bears in two of their first three games, so fat chance of that good start happening.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Dwayne Haskins is the QB of the future for Washington. He is not relevant in redraft leagues to start the season (ADP 236/QB28), but his pedigree is there. He has the single season record for passing yards and TDs at Ohio State and was picked at #15 overall, the 3^rd QB taken in the 2019 draft. He will be relevant if you have a dynasty draft, but otherwise he will be a pickup later in the year once he gets some starts. Haskins’ college teammate, Terry McLaurin, is a guy who can shine at WR. He ran a 4.32-40 at the combine and should see plenty of time on the field since there’s nobody on the depth chart ahead of him that really demands playing time. McLaurin can hopefully keep his relationship with Haskins going and turn it into a productive rookie year.

New York Giants

What’s changed since last year? Most notably, the Giants traded Odell Beckham away to the Browns. They did acquire a top tier offensive guard, Kevin Zeitler, which should improve their running game. That being said, the loss of Beckham will be felt all year long, as they did not replace him or his 124 targets at all. Golden Tate is new to the team and will try to pick up the slack, but he is now suspended for the first 4 games of the season. Tate will probably be a very high volume PPR receiver when he returns and can be had at a cheap price right now, his ADP is 111 (WR44).

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Nobody really stands out to me as a potential breakout on the Giants, mostly because of the presence of Eli Manning. It’s certainly possible that one of the WRs can step up just based on the fact that there’s nobody else to throw to, but the 2018 Redskins proved that that doesn’t have to be the case.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? The uncertainty with the passing game in New York, coupled with his 4 game suspension, makes Golden Tate probably the only “sleeper” candidate on the Giants. Of course, he’s going to miss 4 games – but most sleepers don’t come on right away anyways.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Saquon Thunder-Thighs Barkley. He’s currently ADP 1 and will have a very high percentage of the offense going through him this year. If (when) the Giants are losing, he will see lots of check down passes out of the backfield, he’s going to be even more fun in PPR leagues.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? It’s certainly possible that a WR like Bennie Fowler, Cody Latimer, or Russell Shepard can step up due to a lack of depth at the position. However – I wouldn’t count on it, but they are names to keep an eye on anyways.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Daniel Jones is the Eli Manning of the future, drafted 6^th overall this year. I certainly think that given the state of the team, they might as well start him as soon as possible, but that doesn’t seem to be the plan. I do expect Jones to eventually get starts, but that will probably come later in the season when they are eliminated from the playoffs and have a (likely) 1-9 record. Almost all of the rest of the Giants draft picks came on the defense.