Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

0 Wins at MetLife Stadium

Well, it’s 2020 and for football fans in the vicinity of New York City, there’s still no victories to speak of. In fact, the last team to win a home game at Metlife stadium is….the New York Guardians of the currently defunct XFL league – though that may return in 2022. If the Giants and Jets can’t get their shit together, it might be the Guardians who manage the next home victory at MetLife Stadium. As predicted, between the Jets and Giants, Frank Gore leads the way in rushing yards with a whopping 174 over 4 games. The only other rushers over 100 yards on the season are both of the team’s starting QBs. Combined, the teams only have 5 passing and 3 rushing TDs. That’s an average of one offensive TD, per team, per game. Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have combined for 9 INTs, so that’s slightly more than one per game. It’s going to be a rough 2020 in NYC.

28+ Points in the First Half

The Cleveland Browns achieved something yesterday in Dallas that they haven’t done since 1991. They scored at least 28 points in the first half. Now, this isn’t a minor achievement to make fun of, but it is fun to point out that only 4 of the Browns who played in the game are 30 or older and were alive to see the last time they reached that milestone. This year’s Browns, however, seem to be a force to be reckoned with. After getting trounced in Week 1 by the Ravens, they have averaged 39 points per game, albeit against some weaker competition. But hey, you can only play the team that is on the opposite sideline. This year, the Browns are getting the job done on the ground. They lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt and have the 2^nd most rushing attempts in the league. The Browns are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and are also 2^nd in the league with 8 rushing scores. Nick Chubb heading to the IR will hurt them, but in true next man up mentality, D’Ernest Johnson managed 95 yards on only 13 carries Sunday.

1,690 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott, mostly by necessity of his team allowing 146 points through 4 games, has aired the ball out like nobody ever before. His 1,690 passing yards through 4 games is the most in NFL history, and he’s also the first player to throw for 450+ yards in three straight games. Sunday’s performance brings him ahead of Russell Wilson as the #1 fantasy player this season. His 31.3 point per game average and ADP of 48 means that he’s likely on a lot of teams that are doing quite well this season. I will freely admit that I thought he was overhyped going into the season, but I was definitely wrong. He has to throw the ball to someone, and he has gotten 3 of his WRs in the top 30 for fantasy points on the season. If you just go by yardage, those three guys, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all in the top 18.

183 Receiving Yards

Your Week 4 receiving yards leader through Sunday is not a wide receiver, though he sometimes pretends to be one. George Kittle caught all 15 of his targets for 183 yards, a TD, and even tacked on an 8-yard rush for good measure. The 49ers are stumbling without solid QB play and couldn’t manage very much against the previously winless Philadelphia Eagles. Elsewhere in the strange receiving fantasy stats, 5 players caught 2 TDs each and none of them went over 100 receiving yards. Only Odell Beckham Jr managed to go over 100 yards from scrimmage, courtesy of his third TD, a 50-yard run on a 4^th quarter end-around. Meanwhile, only 4 players topped the 100 rushing yard mark, and 3 of them found the end zone twice. Way to let the rest of the group down, Ronald Jones.

18 Fantasy Points

Finally, we have a look at the D/ST spot for the first time this year. This was a bad week for them, as only 2 teams cracked double digits. The Eagles scored a TD and only gave up 20 points on their way to an impressive 18-point performance. Meanwhile, the Browns – currently a turnover machine with 10 on the season, could only manage 5 points from 3 turnovers and 3 sacks against the Cowboys. The early season leaders at the D/ST position are the Colts (52), Ravens (43), and Buccaneers (37). All still have the ability to just be a crapshoot on a weekly basis. The Colts are in their position courtesy of last week’s 26-point performance, the Bucs put up a 0 in week 1 and the Ravens have only 2 INTs and 9 sacks on the season. Coming up they play Cincy and Philly, so that’s a couple of good matchups to ride with until they hit their bye in Week 7.

Here's a sneak peek of tonight's Fantasy Finish Line Podcast with Dave and I. We'll discuss news, all the rapid changes in rosters in the league, and random stuff that comes up along the way. Make sure to tune in at 9pm on YouTube.

• Where do we start? First off, there’s the covid news. Aaron Rodgers tested positive, and he’s out for Week 9’s game against the Chiefs. The Packers 3rd string QB is out too, and it’s certainly possible that Jordan Love can test positive before Sunday as well. Blake Bortles was signed earlier today and spent training camp with the Packers, so he’ll slot in if everything goes haywire for the Packers. Davante Adams was placed on the covid list on 10/25 so should be cleared to return this week. Adams and Jones remain a must start against a poor Chiefs defense. Allen Lazard has been taken off the covid list, so that’s a good sign for Adams being available on Sunday.

• Henry Ruggs….lots has been said about him, but fantasy wise - Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow should see a bit more usage, but I expect Zay Jones to be the one to get the deep targets. Ruggs was in on 65-80% of snaps, but only saw about 5 targets per game. Renfrow should see an increase in snaps as he was more of a 55-65% guy and could see a bump to his 7 targets per game.

• Saquon Barkley is also on the covid list, so even if his ankle is rehabbed, he won’t be returning this week. The Giants are on bye the following week. Also with the Giants, Kenny Golladay returned to practice today, and Sterling Shepard looks like he’ll be out at least through the bye next week. The WR group for the Giants continues to be a revolving door, and your decision on who to start will likely go right up to game time on Sunday.

• Dak Prescott is back at practice this week, it would appear that the Cooper Rush era will be put on hold for now. Michael Gallup has been designated to return from IR, but still has not been active.

• Calvin Ridley stepped away from the Falcons indefinitely, and abruptly, on Sunday morning. It’s always important to watch those inactives! The biggest beneficiary of this will probably be Russell Gage, with Kyle Pitts now being the primary target in the offense. I expect Gage’s snap count to go way up, and his zero targets last week to be a fluke. 

• Odell Beckham Jr. appears to be on the way out in Cleveland. They did not find a trade partner for him, so, considering the team asked him not to come in, he will likely be put on waivers and then cut if nobody claims him. Plenty of teams would probably take a chance on him, with the Saints high on that list, but it seems like his days in Cleveland are done. He’s averaging less than 6 targets per game, and playing less than 70% of snaps. His presence won’t be missed. Jarvis Landry will continue to be the only weekly start catching passes for the run-heavy Browns.

• Christian McCaffrey has been designated to return from IR, right on schedule with his initially reported timeline. This doesn’t need to officially happen until Saturday in order to play on Sunday, so keep an eye on the news. As usual, McCaffrey should be in your starting lineup if he’s playing.

• DeAndre Hopkins is not practicing this week. He only played in 15 snaps last Thursday night, apparently on some of those he snuck in and wasn’t supposed to be on the field. He’s one of the few players that can perform well if he does not practice all week, so just keep an eye on his status on Sunday - he does play a late afternoon game. He needs to be in your lineup if he’s playing. Kyler Murray also did not practice today, but he should be good to go this week after injuring his ankle late in the game last Thursday night.

• Is there such a thing as WR burnout? Michael Thomas led the league in receptions in 2018 and 2019, with a record-breaking 149 catches in ‘19. Since then he’s played in just 7 games and has announced that he won’t be returning in 2021. He’s still under contract for 2022 and will be 29 at that time. Expect the Saints to make a play for Odell Beckham once he is finally cut, or any other free agent WR for that matter.

• Derrick Henry suffered a (fantasy) season ending injury on Sunday and is supposed to be out for 6-10 weeks. An extremely optimistic outlook might have him back in time for the fantasy playoffs, but I find that to be unlikely at best. If you have the luxury of a free IR spot, then definitely use it. Otherwise I think it’s safe to drop him and let someone else waste a roster spot on him in the hopes he returns in Week 16 or 17 of the NFL season. If the Titans are in the playoffs at that time, they would be smart to just hold him until the playoffs start. If they are eliminated, then there’s no reason to bring him back. Jeremy McNichols stands to see a big increase in carries, and the passing game will probably also see a boost for the Titans. It remains to be seen how the Titans want to use Adrian Peterson, and how much use he actually gets.

• Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Saints win against the Bucs and is out for the rest of the season, and probably out of New Orleans, practically speaking. For now, we’ll see a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian under center for the Saints. This doesn’t affect the Saints fantasy players much because nobody was doing anything other than Kamara anyways! (True - Marquez Callaway has been a flex play from weeks 3-5 but that’s about it, only putting up 3 fantasy points in each of the last two matchups).