Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
31.50 Fantasy Points
Devonta Freeman led the league in fantasy points this week, putting up 31.50 against the comically bad 49ers rushing defense. How bad are the 49ers, you ask? Freeman is the 6th back that they’ve given up 29 or more points to. Every single RB of note has scored double digits on them, with the exception of Todd Gurley in Week 1. Meanwhile you may be saying, “Great Devonta, but you got me eliminated with 6 yards last week”. Yes, 6 carries for 6 yards is a painful pill to swallow, but it’s not like Tevin Coleman dominated the carries last week – he only had 8. Look for Freeman to continue as the dominant back in the Falcons backfield and keep him in your lineup.
162 Rush Yards
Ty Montgomery, a guy who really isn’t a WR anymore, carried the ball 16 times against the Bears for an average just over 10 yards per carry. He added two TDs on the ground for a cool (cold, yesterday) 28.30 points. Despite his dual eligibility, he’s really not a WR anymore. With that being said, I found it interesting that no WR’s scored in the 20 point range - #1 was Brandin Cooks with 30.60 points, the next was Tyler Lockett with 19 points. The #10 WR for the week only scored 12.8 points, and that was Tyreek Hill all on one play. RBs, meanwhile, had 6 players score 20+ points, just showing what we always say – running backs are more valuable at the end of the season, but not necessarily the beginning.
14 Games in a Row
David Johnson continued his streak of consecutive games with 100+ yards from scrimmage, making it 14 games in a row, or all season long. There are several players tied with the NFL record of 15 games, but none of them have done it in a streak like Johnsons, and Johnson has a chance at being the only player to do it for all 16 games. He now has 6 multi TD games and 17 total TDs on the season. He’s no threat to Ezekiel Elliott in taking the rushing title, but his 800 receiving yards put him at 1938 total on the year, and with 2 games left, he’s got a long shot at breaking the all-time record of 2,509, set by his teammate Chris Johnson (when he had another name and another team). Unfortunately, he can’t just play the 49ers to finish the season.
20% Owned
Using our drinkfive.com league as a metric, I can “proudly” report that only 2 of the top 10 finishing TE’s were even owned for Week 15. Sure, maybe Cameron Brate should be owned, but the likes of Dion Sims, Erik Swoope and Ryan Griffin gracing the top 10 list makes one very nostalgic for the days of Gronkowski. TE streaming has turned into a dart throw with the dart board spinning in circles. Sure, Jordan Reed or Greg Olson could find their way onto this list tonight, but nothing about their play in the last couple of weeks fills me with confidence that they can break the 8 point barrier. Tight End has become a mystery fantasy position, with little to no consistency or predictability from week to week.
89% Completion Rate
Sunday night, Dak Prescott (or Rayne Dakota Prescott, The Fortress, thanks Pro Football Reference), completed 32 of 36 passes against the Bucs, posting a ridiculous 89% completion rate. He even added a TD on the ground, moving him to 5th overall in fantasy points at the QB position this season. In 2014, perhaps his best season so far, Tony Romo was the 11th best fantasy QB. Let’s also take a peek at Romo’s 2015 – he only played 4 games, and a 5:7 TD:INT ratio and was sacked 6 times. Those 4 games he played weren’t even consecutive. The QB controversy in Dallas has always been media driven and not because of the actual facts on the ground. Once you take Romo’s most recent performances into account, it’s really a no brainer that they would replace him with a guy who won 11 games in a row, and not look back. If you want QB controversy, go a couple hours south on I-45 to Houston, though that one seems a bit cut-and-dry as well.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
8 Turnovers in 3 Games
Since Ezekiel Elliott took some mid-season R&R about 3 weeks ago, the Cowboys have struggled mightily. Dak Prescott, hailed last year for his ball security, has turned the ball over 8 times in the last 3 games, all of them without Zeke. He has 5 INT and 3 fumbles lost in those games and has thrown zero touchdowns. In fact, the Cowboys have only scored 2 TDs in those three games. With Zeke in, Dak threw 16 TDs with only 4 INTs over 8 games. The rest of Zeke's suspension will see the Cowboys taking on the Redskins, Giants and Raiders. I'm not sure that the Cowboys are going to win any of them. This strangely begs the argument - Is Zeke the most valuable player to his team? It sure would be a hilarious thing for Goodell to have to see the Zeke be given such a big award that was highlighted by the suspension that ruled (and ruined) the news cycle for the first half of the season.
-0.6 Yards per Carry for Bears RBs
Several bad rushing days have found their way into my column this season, but oh boy, the Bears took it to another level yesterday. The three Bears running backs, Jordan Howard, Benny Cunningham and Tarik Cohen combined for 10 carries and -6 yards. It took QB Mitchell Trubisky's monumental 4 carries for 12 yards to make sure that they didn't finish in the negative as a team. But yes, of course, the Bears are bad. I'd rather talk about the team that beat them, the best team in the league right now, the Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz threw another 3 touchdowns, making it his 5th game where he threw 3 or more TDs. He's also got the league lead with 28 for the season. The Eagles have won 9 in a row, and now have two huge tests over the next two weeks, both on the west coast. First to Seattle next Sunday night, and a visit to the Rams the following week.
1.24 Points Per Touch
Step aside Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara just took your spot for the favorite to win rookie of the year. He's now third in STANDARD fantasy scoring and he only has 77 carries on the season. His production is off the charts, fantasy wise. At 1.24 points per touch(ppt), he's even crushing Chris Thompson (ended the year at 1.09 ppt), whom we gushed about earlier this season. The next closest player still going is Duke Johnson at 0.94 ppt, but seeing as Duke has only the 17th most fantasy points, there's really no comparison. Look instead to how much he's dominating the guys above him. Todd Gurley is averaging about 0.80 ppt, and high volume guy Le'Veon Bell is getting just 0.52 ppt. This means that somehow, Alvin Kamara is more than twice as efficient with the ball than the guy commonly accepted as the best back of the last couple years. All this talk about Mark Ingram being a first team all-pro might be a bit premature. He's got a teammate doing at least as well as he is!
46:21 TD:INT Ratio
This week, quarterback play was a lot cleaner than last week. With a ratio of 46 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, this week's games felt a lot less sloppy than last week's 39:31 ratio. An obvious side effect of this better play is improved numbers for wide receivers. This week, 6 guys found themselves north of 20 points, with Julio Jones leading the way with an absurd 38.8 in standard leagues. His 253 receiving yards was the highest total for a player in one game since his 300 yard game last season. Meanwhile, Antonio Brown is the major beneficiary of an improved Ben Roethlisberger and has put up an absurd line of 20 receptions for 313 yards and 5 touchdowns in the last two games. Not to be outdone, the surging Chargers have scored 82 points in the last two games, behind Philip Rivers awesome Thanksgiving performance and Keenan Allen's 331 receiving yards over that same stretch. All of this means that the end of the fantasy football season is sure to be freaking amazing.
7-0 Since Week 5
Congrats to Case Keenum, easily the best performing player in the league whose job is constantly in jeopardy. Since taking over for good in Week 5 - remember Sam Bradford? - Keenum has won 7 straight games and the team has averaged 27.4 points per game. This has the Vikings sitting pretty at 9-2, while every week, Coach Zimmer has to announce Keenum as his starter, and not Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater may be the future of the team, but he has almost nothing to do with their success this season. I think that changing the signal caller at this point in the season would be disastrous, but hey, with Zeke finally suspended, what else do talking heads have to discuss?
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.
7 Games of 60+ Rushing Yards
It’s hard to pick just one stat to lead with for Lamar Jackson, so let’s go with the one that nobody else has done in league history. Jackson is now the first QB in the NFL to have 60+ rush yards in 7 straight starts, as he continues his march towards Michael Vick’s single season record. Jackson added 86 yards on just 9 carries on Sunday. He’s now on pace for 1,260 rush yards and at this rate will easily break the record before Christmas. Jackson is amazingly efficient and playing so well for his team. His fantasy totals are gaudy, but don’t exactly feel like they would be if you look at just his passing stats. Another 4 passing TDs yesterday brought his season total to 19 – congrats to you preseason bettors, his Vegas over/under was just 15. He has had over 30 pass attempts just 4 times this season (2 of them were his team’s losses), and is just magnificent this year, especially for fantasy. He has zero fumbles, something that only Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray and Mason Rudolph can claim, though none of them run the ball like Lamar.
0.36 More Fantasy Points Than Lamar Jackson
Only one player in the NFL had more fantasy points than Lamar Jackson through Sunday, and it was Josh Allen, as he dismantled the Dolphins. The difference between the two is really that Allen had a rushing TD, his 7th on the season, which leads all QBs and is tied for 6th among all players in the NFL. Allen is showing plenty of growth in his second season. Last year he started 11 games, and this year he has 10 under his belt and he already has more pass yards, more pass TDs and fewer INTs. His completion rate has improved significantly and he is the QB6 on the season. Allen hasn’t thrown a pick in the last 5 straight games. He has played very well and just might hold on to make the playoffs. With a solid QB and a good defense, they might even be able to win a game there.
3 TDs in 3 Straight Starts
I don’t mean to only talk about QBs so far, but I would be remiss if I did not gush a little about the play of Dak Prescott, who has quietly been awesome this year. Unfortunately, his team does not beat good teams, but damn he’s played well against everyone since New Orleans in Week 4. Over the last 3 weeks, Prescott has 9 passing TDs and 1,098 passing yards over that time – he now leads the league with 3,221 passing yards. Prescott has reduced the frequency that he runs, but he’s gaining a lot more per run on the ground this year, up to 5.8 yards per carry, the second highest total of his career. These smarts also help keep him on the field – he hasn’t missed a start in his 4 seasons. So, Dak sits as the QB3 in fantasy football and the 4th player overall. He’s having a great season and would be in the MVP talk if it wasn’t for the couple of QBs ahead of him, who are just a little bit better and winning a few more games. That being said, don’t count him out – there’s still lots of football left to play.
19.10 Points Without a Touchdown
OK, enough about the QBs, let’s dive into the RBs, who admittedly, had a down week. Leading the pack was Mark Ingram, who is the only RB to break the 20-point barrier as of Sunday in Week 11. He found the end zone twice through the air and was the week’s RB1, despite only gaining 85 yards from scrimmage. The guy who did rack up gaudy totals was, of course, Christian McCaffrey, who added another 191 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches. McCaffrey has 1,576 yards from scrimmage on the season, and he’s still on pace to just squeak by the single-season record of 2,510. Considering he put up another 19 points without finding the end zone, he’s clearly the fantasy MVP outside of QBs. He has 32 more fantasy points than the 2nd place team and is beating the RB8, the aforementioned Mark Ingram, by over 100 points on the season.
94 Receptions in 10 Games
Congrats to Michael Thomas, who continues to be an absolute beast for Drew Brees and the Saints. Thomas now has 94 receptions through 10 games, obviously a league lead, but also a milestone that no one else in league history has reached. He’s leading the league this year with 1,141 receiving yards and is on pace for 150 receptions on the season, which would break Marvin Harrison’s record of 143. Heck, Thomas is already 5th on that list with his 125-catch effort last season, a number he’s certain to break soon. Thomas now has 11 or more targets in all but 2 games this season, and has done the majority of his damage without Brees under center. Yesterday’s effort of 114 receiving yards exactly matches his 114 yards per game average this season. I’m all for players who like to express themselves, as we have seen at WR in the last few years, but there’s something awesome about the quiet dominance we get from guys like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins.
One of our newest segments on the podcast is Pick Your Poison, where Dave, Jason and a guest pick between two close players based on the drinkfive.com player rankings. This week we were joined by site contributor Mike Mocerino. Our choices will be listed below each of the matchups. Let us know in the comments which players you would pick!
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (#6) @ PHI or Drew Brees (#7) @ TEN
Dak Prescott was limited in practice on Wednesday for the first time in his career. This really isn’t significant for his matchup, I just thought it was an interesting tidbit to illustrate his durability. Don’t worry about Prescott’s availability for Sunday – he has a decent matchup. The Eagles are somehow giving up the 19th most points to opposing QBs, while giving up the 3rd most points to opposing WRs. Regardless of any anomalies you may find with Prescott, he should be in shape to have a very high floor this week against the Eagles.
Last week Drew Brees broke two impressive records, the all-time TD record and the single game completion percentage. What does he do for an encore? I suspect he’s going to throw the ball to Michael Thomas an awful lot. The Titans are giving up the 18th most points to opposing QBs, and have only surrendered more than 22 points to one player all year, Patrick Mahomes. Brees has 9 TDs in his last 2 games, and 16 in his last 5 – I expect him to continue to ride high going into the playoffs, though his ceiling in this game is probably a little lower than the last 2 weeks.
Mike: Drew Brees, Dave: Dak Prescott, Jason: Drew Brees
Matt Ryan (#11) vs JAX or Ryan Fitzpatrick (#12) vs CIN
Ryan gets the struggling Jaguars at home, a team that gives up the 11th most points to opposing QBs. Last week he targeted Julio Jones a whopping 20 times, and if he wants to win this completely meaningless game, then he might as well target him another 20 times. The Jaguars have given up big games to Rivers, Mahomes and Tannehill this year, and have recently kept Winston to under 11 points, so they’re kind of all over the place. Matt Ryan has a range of just 18.5-21.3 over his last 3 games, and has not put up a really big game since he went down with an injury in week 7.
Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball an awful lot this year, with at least 37 attempts each of the last 5 weeks. He has 2 games with no TDs in that span, however he did manage to rush for 65 yards in one of those. Regardless, they were against tough defenses, Buffalo and the Jets – his opponent on Sunday, the Bengals, are definitely not that. They are giving up the 9th most points to opposing QBs. They have given up 7 games of 20 points or more this season, including Lamar Jackson’s 2-30 point games. I expect Fitzpatrick to throw the ball a ton – he’s averaging 38 attempts per game since week 7 and he’s the QB7 over the last 4 weeks.
Mike: Matt Ryan, Dave: Matt Ryan, Jason: Matt Ryan
RB
Melvin Gordon (#17) or OAK or Devin Singletary (#18) @ NE
Melvin Gordon’s snap share has dipped lately, hitting a season low of 40% last week after a high water mark of 65% just a few weeks prior. Gordon also carried the ball only 7 times, the fewest he’s seen all year. The one bright spot is that he’s had 5 receptions in each of the last 2 games, and that’s his high on the season. He’ll be facing Oakland, who give up the 13th most points to opposing RBs, though they did surrender 19.3 to Gordon when they played back in week 10.
Devin Singletary, aka the TRUTH, has been used a lot more on the Bills. He’s seeing a 70+% snap share every week since week 11, after having a max of 68% before that. He’s got almost 18 carries per game over that time period as well and is the RB18 over the last 4 weeks. Singletary has good volume that you can chase, however his biggest problem is his opponent this week, the Patriots. New England is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing RBs, though last week Joe Mixon set a season high mark against them of 15.6 points.
Mike: Mike Singletary, Dave: Melvin Gordon, Jason: Melvin Gordon
Le’Veon Bell (#24) vs PIT or Raheem Mostert (#25) vs LAR
There’s been lots of flippant talk of #RevengeGame(s) this year, but this one could be real. Bell will face his former team, and probably better for him that this is in New York (Jersey) rather than Pittsburgh. Bell has struggled both on and off the field with his team lately, but he needs to have an impressive showing in order to market himself to a new team for next season. The Steelers are giving up the 6th fewest points to opposing RBs. They have only given up 5 double digit performances all season, and several of those were very flukey, like to David Johnson in week 14, Rashaad Penny in week 2 and Jeff Wilson (the week doesn’t matter there, it’s just an anomaly). Bell still hasn’t broken 100 rushing yards this season, and the Steelers haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher either.
Mostert is the kind of player that you picked up late and probably helped many teams make and win in the playoffs. Last week he disappointed with a 9.9 point performance, but his role on the 49ers should still be pretty safe. The game against the Falcons was something to forget for the Niners, and considering they fumbled the ball 4 times, I don’t expect a repeat. Since Matt Breida had 2 of those fumbles, I don’t see him overtaking Mostert, and Tevin Coleman has very clearly moved from the Guest House to the Dog House, with only 4 carries last week and only 13 touches in the last 3 games. The Rams are giving up the 14th most points to opposing RBs, a number that is skewed by the fact that they gave up 48 points to Zeke and Pollard just last week.
Mike: Raheem Mostert, Dave: Le'Veon Bell, Jason: Le'Veon Bell
WR
Kenny Golladay (#14) @ DEN or Stefon Diggs (#15) vs GB
Kenny Golladay is a very talented receiver, in fact, he broke a record that even Megatron didn’t have – he’s the first Lions receiver to have 1,000 yards in two of his first three seasons. Unfortunately, his QB is David Blough (that name again is David Blough) and that really sucks from a fantasy perspective. Blough has only 3 TDs in his 3 games, but he is throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging about 41 attempts per game (probably because the Lions are always losing). It doesn’t get any easier against Denver this week, who are giving up the 8th fewest points to opposing WRs. The silver lining is that Denver is giving up big numbers to a lot of #1 WRs since Week 11 to guys like Diggs, Hopkins, Hill and Allen.
Speaking of a fellow NFC North wide receiver, Stefon Diggs has not been lighting it up lately, averaging only 7.5 points per game over the last 3 weeks. Diggs has had the volume, with 24 targets over that time, but his matchups have been tough. This week against Green Bay is kind of a middle-of-the-road matchup. They are giving up the 14th fewest points to opposing WRs and held Diggs to 8.9 points back in Week 2. With Adam Thielen returning to the mix, Diggs is a mixed bag and more of a risk to than he was in the middle of the season.
Mike: Kenny Golladay, Dave: Stefon Diggs, Jason: Kenny Golladay
Anthony Miller (#31) vs KC or John Brown (#32) @ NE
Anthony Miller has been lighting it up lately, well, for a Bears WR anyways. Over his last 3 games, he has 42 total points and his target volume has been very high. He saw 13 targets in Wk 13, then just 4 the next week, but scored a TD. Finally he had another 15 targets last week in Green Bay. Over the last 5 weeks, he is averaging over 10 targets per game, so it’s clear that he’s becoming a favorite of Trubisky. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have really fixed their secondary this season and are giving up the 4th fewest points to opposing WRs. Since Week 3, they have only given up 3 double digit performances. The Chiefs are much weaker against the run, though they’re also likely to get out to an early lead, so I do expect the Bears to continue to throw the ball, even against a tough passing D.
John Brown has had a breakout season this year (he was even our sleeper pick on the Bills during the preseason). He’s broken 1,000 yards for the second time in his career, and is easily having the best season of his career, with high marks in receptions, yardage and yards per game with 2 games still left to go. Unfortunately for him this week, he’s going to be shut down by Stefon Gilmore and the Patriots league leading pass defense. They give up the fewest points to opposing WRs by almost 3 points compared to the next team on the list. They’ve only given up 5 double digit performances all year, all of them to guys who scored TDs. They’ve allowed just 3 receiving TDs to WRs, which means that one of those performances contained a rushing TD, and the other contained a passing TD. This defense is really good.
Mike: Anthony Miller, Dave: Anthony Miller, Jason: Anthony Miller
TE
Tyler Higbee (#5) @ SF or Austin Hooper (#6) vs JAX
Higbee has 3 straight 100 yard games over the last 3 weeks, and he’s just been tearing it up since taking over for Gerald Everett. Going in to week 13, Higbee had 884 career yards, and he’s increased that number by 37% since then. He’s already the TE14 on the season, and is the TE4 over the last 4 weeks. Higbee will be facing the 49ers defense, who give up the 2nd fewest points to opposing TEs this season, though in weeks 13 and 14, they gave up big games to both Mark Andrews and Jared Cook.
Austin Hooper was leading all TEs in fantasy scoring when he went down with an injury and sat out Weeks 11-13. He has not produced since coming back, though he’s had 6 targets per game and probably scored a TD last week that was not ruled a TD. This week Hooper faces the Jaguars, who give up the 10th most points to opposing TEs. Just last week they gave up a 10 catch, 122 yard performance to Darren Waller, so I expect that Hooper can get open and go back to his production that he had earlier in the year, especially since Jacksonville is likely to focus on Julio Jones.
Mike: Tyler Higbee, Dave: Tyler Higbee, Jason: Austin Hooper
O.J. Howard (#11) vs HOU or Dallas Goedert (#12) vs DAL
OJ Howard has not been a stellar TE this season, but he’s basically the default #2 target on the Bucs after their WR group has been decimated by injury, with 3 guys going down in the last 2 weeks. Howard has 19 targets in his last 3 games, and that number should just go up this week against Houston. The Texans give up the 6th most points to opposing TEs, including double digit performances each of the last 2 weeks. I expect Howard to be used a lot and Houston will be able to focus on him since there’s not a lot of other options, however Howard is an ok spot start if you’re in a pinch.
Dallas Goedert has been a TD dependent TE on a team that also has a depleted WR group, but he’s way behind Ertz when it comes to a share of the targets. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks, though his high is only 8. Goedert is a high floor, low ceiling type player, just remember that the floor for most TEs is still pretty low. Dallas is giving up the 11th most points to opposing TEs, and just last week got torched for 111 yards by Tyler Higbee. Dallas has given up 5 TDs to TEs this year, and Dallas will have to score a TD against Dallas to make Dallas a good start. Confused yet? Well I’m done, so good luck this week!
Mike: O.J. Howard, Dave: O.J. Howard, Jason: Dallas Goedert