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(Editor's note: This was completed before the start of Thursday Night Football, but posted shortly after kickoff.)

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! There are now just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. You should have a good picture of where you stand in the playoff chase. Week 11 is the last week of the season with more than 2 teams on a bye (Tampa and Carolina in week 13 are the only byes left after this week). This may be the last week that you’re scrounging for a fill-in in your lineups, and with how productive the rookie crop has been this year there’s likely to be someone listed below that can help you. So far this season, the rookie class accounts for 2 of the top-14 QBs, 5 of the top-20 RBs, and 6 of the top-30 WRs. Which of those players are going to be useful in week 11? Let’s dive in and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Herbert hit a bit of a speed bump last week against the Dolphins, but I’d expect him to get back on track against the Jets this week. Against the lowly Jets, a blowout is always a possibility (the Chargers are an 8.5-point favorite this week), but the Jets have given up big fantasy days in blowout losses to Kyler Murray, Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes this year. The Chargers also don’t play in a lot of blowout games. They’ve played just 1 game that was decided by more than 8 points this season, so this might not get too out of hand. The Jets rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and even including last week’s clunker Herbert has at least 2 touchdowns in 6 straight games and 260+ passing yards in 7 of his 8 starts. He’s back to being a safe low-end QB1 this week. 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 11: @Car.): Swift has clearly established himself as the Lions’ lead back in recent weeks. He’s led the backfield in snaps for 5 straight weeks since the team’s bye and was on the field for a whopping 73% of the snaps in week 10 despite the Lions playing from ahead for most of the game. Detroit usually deploys Adrian Peterson a lot more in that scenario, but things seem to have changed. Swift has been making the most of his opportunity, finishing as a top-16 RB in 4 of the last 5 weeks, and a top-5 back in two of them. This week he gets to face off with Carolina, who allows the 4^th-most running back points per game and could be without starting QB Teddy Bridgewater this week. If Teddy sits, the Lions are more likely to play from ahead and could give Swift more rushing work. In any case, Swift should be a strong RB2 this week with top-5 upside once again. There is some concern about Swift’s availability for this week as it was announced Thursday that he went into the concussion protocol, so watch the injury updates closely. If he’s unable to play, Kerryon Johnson could be a sneaky upside play this week. He’s more likely to pick up Swift’s receiving work than Adrian Peterson.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): JD McKissic continues to play an outsized portion of the snaps and see an absurd number of targets each week (15(!) in week 10), but Gibson continues to make do with his limited early-down role. He did actually see his second and third 3^rd-down touches of the year last Sunday in the loss to Detroit. The key for Gibson is that the game has to stay competitive. When Washington falls behind and gets into a pass-happy mode, McKissic plays the bulk of the snaps. The Football Team isn’t very good, so that’s happened often. This week, Washington is actually favored by a point & a half. That could bode well for Gibson if the game plays out that way. The Bengals rank just 21^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most rushing yards in the league. Expect Gibson to play a bit more in this game than he has in recent weeks, and with a lot of top backs banged up around the league he should be a safe RB2 in a reasonable matchup.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 11: @LV): Keep an eye on the injury report for CEH. He was held out of practice on Thursday unexpectedly, but if that proves to not be a significant issue, I actually like Edwards-Helaire as an RB2 this week. He’s been playing about twice as many snaps as Le’Veon Bell since the veteran was acquired, and the Raiders' offense is good enough to keep this game competitive into the second half. Las Vegas has a piss-poor run defense, ranking 26^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 5^th-most running back points per game. This looks like a perfect spot for the rookie to get back on track after 3 straight floor games. He totaled 80 scrimmage yards on 13 touches in the first meeting with the Raiders in a game where the Chiefs just didn’t look like themselves. I expect they’ll look much better this time around, and that Edwards-Helaire will be part of the reason why. It’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to trust him even if he’s healthy, but I expect a strong outing from CEH on Sunday.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 11: @Jax.): I talked last week in this space about Claypool turning the corner and starting to see a significant target share even in weeks when Diontae Johnson stayed on the field, and that continued in week 10. Claypool finished with 4-56-2 on 10 targets against the Bengals in a game that the Steelers led most of the way. This week’s game script should be similar with Pittsburgh a 10-point favorite. Claypool has 32 targets over the last 3 weeks, so anything short of 8 in this one would be a disappointment even if the Steelers play from ahead. With the big-play ability Claypool has shown, 8+ targets against a defense allowing the 9^th-most WR points per game isn’t something you can leave on the bench.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Jefferson flashed again in a big way on Monday night, possibly helping Kirk Cousins break his Monday night curse along the way. Jefferson posted 8 catches and 135 yards as Kirk Cousins got his first win as a starter on Monday Night Football in his 10^th try. It also continued a strange pattern with Jefferson, who has put up blowup games every third game. In team games 3, 6, and 9, Jefferson has had at least 9 targets and 135 yards receiving in each one, averaging 8-159-1 on 10 targets in those games. In the team’s other 6 games, he hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any of them and has only reached 50 receiving yards twice. I’m not going to read too much into this trend just yet. I think it’s mostly coincidence, but I thought it was interesting to note. This week’s matchup with the Cowboys is a good one. Dallas allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game, and while Minnesota may play from ahead and lean on the run game, I’d have a hard time leaving Jefferson’s upside on the bench in such a favorable matchup. He’s a solid WR3 this week with the upside for a lot more.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 11: @Den.): Tua has looked sharp in his last two starts, but hasn’t reached QB1 levels as he finished as the QB16 and QB15 in those two games. Denver isn’t a pushover defense, but they also aren’t a very daunting one either. The Broncos rank 12^th in pass defense DVOA but allow the 14^th-most QB points per game. They gave up 3 passing scores in 2 of their last 3 games, and the only reason they held Derek Carr in check last weekend was that the Raiders ran all over them in a blowout win. I don’t expect this game to be as lopsided. Tua probably finishes somewhere in that high-to-mid QB2 range again. He’s worth consideration if you’re missing your starter in a 1-QB league, and he’s a solid QB2 in superflex and 2-QB formats.

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 11: @Was.): Burrow finished last week with his 2^nd-lowest fantasy scoring game of the season in a daunting matchup with the Steelers, and this week he gets another matchup that looks tough on paper. Despite their poor record, Washington ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 11^th-fewest QB points per game. When you dig a little deeper, it looks like Washington’s numbers were built in a 3-game stretch where they got to face off with Daniel Jones (twice) and Andy Dalton, and gave up fewer than 15 QB points in each game. In the 3 games around that stretch, they gave up 23+ points to Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, and Lamar Jackson. I think Burrow is closer to that second group than the first one. I’d still tread a little carefully here with Burrow and view him more as a QB2 than a QB1 in what is still not a plus-matchup.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I’m not going to pretend that you might sit James Robinson if you have him, but it’s worth noting that you should temper your expectations for him this week and probably shouldn’t be targeting him in DFS formats. The Steelers allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 6^th in run defense DVOA. Pittsburgh is also a 10-point favorite, so game script could be working against Robinson. Throughout the season Robinson has had a pretty safe built-in floor with his receiving usage, averaging about 4 catches and 32 receiving yards per game, but that hasn’t carried over to Luton’s starts. In the last two weeks with Minshew out, Robinson has just 2 catches for 3 yards on 7 targets. The Steelers allow a league-low 3 running back catches per game. Robinson is likely going to have to earn his points on the ground this week, and as a 2-score underdog, it could be a more uphill fight than we’re used to. Robinson will be a low-floor RB2 against the Steelers.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 11: @Den.): Ahmed had an impressive day last Sunday putting up 85 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. He seems to have a pretty firm grasp on the early-down role until Myles Gaskin returns from injury, and the matchup this week isn’t much tougher than the one he just faced. Denver allows the 14^th-most RB points per game, and in the last 3 weeks they’ve allowed 2 pairs of teammates to run for over 150 combined yards against them (Devontae Booker/Josh Jacobs last week, and Justin Jackson/Troymaine Pope in week 8). There’s plenty of upside for Ahmed to run the ball well again in this one. He doesn’t get much receiving usage – just 1 target in the last 2 games, so the cap that puts on his ceiling makes him more of a flex play than a solid RB2.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 11: vs. GB): It’s been a precipitous fall from grace for Jonathan Taylor over the last few weeks, at least among fantasy players. Since the Colts’ bye in week 7, Taylor has played less than 35% of the snaps in each game and seen that share drop each week since that bye. He did find the end zone once in those games, but also lost a fumble and averaged just 34 scrimmage yards per game. With the way that Frank Reich uses his running backs, there’s always a chance that Taylor gets the hot hand and gets some extended usage, but it’s hard to count on that given the way he’s played in recent weeks. The matchup with Green Bay is a good one. The Packers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game, but this could be more of a Nyheim Hines week as Green Bay gives up the 2^nd-most RB receiving yardage per game. Even in his diminished role, Taylor has averaged 8 carries and 2 catches per game since the bye, so you could talk yourself into using him if you’re desperate for a running back.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been quite right in the last few weeks, with 3 of their 4 lowest team point totals coming in the last 3 games, and the return of Mark Ingram isn’t going to benefit Dobbins. In Ingram’s first game back, Dobbins handled just 6 touches and gained 14 scrimmage yards. He averaged 15 touches per game in the 2 games Ingram missed. The matchup this week is favorable with the Titans allowing the 8^th-most RB points per game, but it’s uncertain that Dobbins will see enough work to take advantage. The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite, so game script should be in their favor, but given the workload split in Baltimore, Dobbins is no more than a desperation flex option in deeper leagues.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 11: @Was.): Higgins continued his impressive rookie campaign last week with a 7-115-1 line against the Steelers. It was his 6^th-straight game with 60+ yards and his best fantasy day of the season. He’s very likely to reach that 60-yard minimum again this week, but this probably won’t be a ceiling week for him. Washington allows the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, largely on their ability to limit wide receiver touchdowns. They’ve given up just 5 TDs to the position all year and are the only defense in the league that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard day to an opposing wideout. You know what kind of floor you get with Higgins, and he should be fine as a WR3, but if you have another option with more upside this might be a week to consider them. Higgins missed practice with an illness late in the week, so there is even more uncertainty thrown in. Make sure to monitor his status if you plan to play him.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 11: @Min.): Lamb actually managed to post a solid day against Pittsburgh going into the bye with Garrett Gilbert under center. It sounds like Andy Dalton will be back at QB this week, but it’s unclear if that will be an upgrade or not. Lamb has the highest target share of any receiver on the team when Dalton is in (22.3%), but he’s turned 19 targets from Dalton into just 9 catches for 85 yards. The Vikings are a plus matchup for receivers, allowing the 5^th-most WR points per game, but with the inconsistency of this offense since Dak’s season ended I’d view Lamb as a volatile WR3 option.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 11: vs. GB): Pittman was one of the stars of the Colts’ victory last Thursday, posting his first career 100-yard game. He looks to be fully recovered from his compartment leg syndrome and may be pulling ahead of TY Hilton for the team’s WR1 role. I’d still expect the Packers’ top corner Jaire Alexander to be matched up on Hilton, which should mean Pittman is in line for another decent day. The Packers have the offensive firepower to keep the Colts throwing, and while Green Bay does a decent job of limiting WR production (they allow the 9^th-fewest WR points per game), they rank just a middling 16^th in pass-defense DVOA and have been burned by Keelan Cole and Richie James in recent weeks. Those guys may be closer stylistically to Hilton, but I’d still view Pittman as an upside WR3 in this matchup.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Jeudy came back down to earth a little bit last week after his breakout week 9 performance, but he still posted his 3^rd straight game with double-digit PPR points and more than 65 receiving yards. He’ll face a tough individual matchup this week against Byron Jones, but he’s been peppered with targets in recent weeks (32 total in the last 3 games). I’d be a little nervous for him if Lock is out and Brett Rypien starts. In Rypien’s one previous start, Jeudy was targeted just 4 times, but it’s a small enough sample that I wouldn’t overreact to it. The week before that game when Rypien came on in relief of Jeff Driskel, he targeted Jeudy 3 times in just 9 attempts. Jeudy is a reasonable WR3 or flex option this week, but don’t expect a ceiling game against Jones.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Reagor was on the field for a season-high 88% of the offensive snaps last week and targeted a season-high 7 times in that game despite Alshon Jeffery’s return. He’s now seen 13 targets in 2 games since returning and is basically neck & neck with Travis Fulgham for WR1 status on the team. This week he faces off with a Cleveland defense that allows the 6^th-most WR points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. He does draw the toughest individual matchup with Denzel Ward, but against this defense, he’s still got room to post a nice day if he sees another 7+ targets. Carson Wentz has been up & down this year, so there is some volatility here, but if you believe Reagor’s WR1 role is for real, he’s an upside WR4 this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Luton came back down to earth a bit in his second NFL start against Green Bay. The Jaguars hung around in the game, but the rookie finished as the QB22 with fewer than 10 fantasy points. He gets an even tougher matchup this week. Pittsburgh ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5^th-fewest QB points per game. Luton should get Laviska Shenault back this week, but that likely won’t be enough help to push him into being a useful option against the Steelers. He’s probably not worth considering even as a QB2.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Week after week I’ve been listing Kelley as a borderline option as part of the backfield committee in LA, and week after week he fails to produce a quality stat line. His ceiling games have been around 10 PPR points, and that just isn’t the kind of upside you’re hoping for from him. He hasn’t found the end zone since week 1, and at the moment this backfield looks like the Kalen Ballage show. Kelley played just 27% of the offensive snaps last week while Ballage played the other 73%. The matchup this week is good. The Jets are the worst team in the league and allow the 7^th-most RB points per game, but we’ve been burned by Kelley time and again. I wouldn’t want to use him even in this plus matchup unless I was pretty desperate. This probably means he’s going to have his best game of the season.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Carlos Hyde will be active tonight, and will likely slot in as the lead back for Seattle on early downs with Chris Carson sidelined again and Alex Collins back on the practice squad. Travis Homer will be out tonight as well, so Dallas will serve as the 3^rd-down back against a Cardinals team that doesn’t give up a lot of receptions to the opposing backfields (just 4.4 per game). Only Raheem Mostert, Ezekiel Elliott, and Mike Davis have caught more than 3 passes in a game from the running back position against Arizona. With Hyde back, and Bo Scarbrough active as the 3^rd-string running back, it’s hard to imagine Dallas getting any opportunities at the goal line. Without a touchdown or a significant number of catches, there isn’t much upside for Dallas.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 11: @TB): Akers has started to become a bigger part of the backfield committee for the Rams, but the role he’s carved out doesn’t have a lot of fantasy upside. For starters, he has struggled in pass protection and as a result, hasn’t been getting many opportunities in passing situations. He has just 1 target in the last 2 games. He also isn’t getting the ball at the goal line. The Rams ran for 3 short scores last week, and it was Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson doing the scoring. The increased playing time is a good sign for Akers, but until he cleans up the pass blocking or starts run the ball effectively enough to make it hard for Sean McVay to keep him off the field, he’s not going to be seeing the high-value touches. Against a Tampa defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA, you don’t want to bet on Akers producing in that limited role.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Jake Luton, the Jacksonville passing game as a whole is going to be shaky this week. The Steelers have been vulnerable to wide receivers, allowing the 11^th-most points per game to the position, but the guys who have made them pay have been bigger perimeter wide receivers. The 4 highest point totals they’ve allowed to receivers this year were put up by Darius Slayton, AJ Brown, Travis Fulgham, and Tee Higgins. Shenault is not that kind of receiver. If he finds his way to 60 yards and a score in this one it would be a wildly successful game for him.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 11: vs. KC): Ruggs is a guy that I always view as a boom-or-bust kind of player, but he has consistently busted since his breakout performance against the Chiefs back in week 5. He totaled 118 yards and a touchdown in that game but has a total of just 7 catches for 74 yards on 14 targets in the 4 games since. Are the Chiefs the opponent to get him booming again? I probably wouldn’t bet on it. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Ruggs’ 2 catches of 40+ yards in the first meeting make up half of the 40+ yard completions Kansas City has allowed all year. Keep him sidelined. His teammate Bryan Edwards took a step forward last week, playing 20 snaps in his first extended action since week 3. I wouldn’t consider him this week, but if his snap share keeps trending in the right direction, he should be a better weekly fantasy play than Ruggs before long.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): Duvernay’s time may be coming, but the recent resurgence of Willie Snead in the slot for the Ravens hurts Duvernay’s upside. He’d be best suited to stretching the seam from the slot, and Snead seems to have that role pretty well locked down right now. Duvernay has moved ahead of Miles Boykin on the depth chart and played at least 40% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks (a season-high 55% last weekend), but until that starts turning into more consistent targets he’s going to be a low-floor dart throw for fantasy. He’s been targeted just 6 times in those last 3 games. The Titans are burnable. They allow the 4^th-most WR points per game and Duvernay has splash play abilities, so if you want to take a swing in a DFS tournament be my guest. He only costs the minimum on DraftKings, but this passing game is too volatile for me to roll the dice on Duvernay right now.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 11: @Car.): There is some potential upside for Cephus this week with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola both missing practice on Thursday, but it’s been clear in the past couple of weeks that the Marvins – Hall & Jones – are the ones who will benefit most from their absence. The Lions’ QB Matt Stafford will be playing through a torn ligament in his throwing hand, which throws a little additional uncertainty into how effective the Detroit passing game will be, and there’s always a chance that they call up Mohamed Sanu from the practice squad and that he siphons snaps from Cephus. Add in the fact that Carolina allows the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, and a possible expanded role for the rookie just isn’t all that exciting in this one. If you’re scrounging this far down the WR ranks, I’d take a swing on a higher ceiling than Cephus has this week.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Peoples-Jones did play a handful more snaps last week than he did in week 10, even hauling in a couple of catches for 16 yards, but he’s still playing as the WR4 in this offense…an offense that ran the ball on about two-thirds of their offensive plays a week ago now that Nick Chubb is back. There isn’t a reason to start DPJ in any formats this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): After posting a goose egg last week, you probably don’t need me to tell you to sit Bryant. It’s ugly enough at tight end this week that a lot of folks playing on ESPN are using Taysom Hill as a tight end streamer, so you may be looking pretty far down the ranks for help. The Eagles do allow the 6^th-most tight end points per game, but as I mentioned under Peoples-Jones, with Nick Chubb back last week the Browns ran the ball on about two-thirds of their offensive snaps in a close game. With Austin Hooper back, Bryant’s snap share is down to just over 50%, so he’ll likely be limited to less than 20 routes run. You’re counting on a TD if you play him, and if you don’t get one another goose egg is entirely possible.

Rookies on Byes: RB Zack Moss, BUF, RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (also out with broken collarbone), WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, WR Darnell Mooney, CHI, WR Gabriel Davis, BUF, WR Austin Mack, NYG, TE Cole Kmet, CHI

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (WK. 11: @LAC): It’s undoubtedly a trap to suggest playing any Adam Gase running back, but I actually like Perine’s chances at a decent day in this one. Frank Gore continues to see more rushing work than the rookie, but the Jets have talked breathlessly about wanting to get Perine more involved. This would be a good week to do it. The Chargers have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game, but more importantly, have allowed more than 6 catches per game to the position, and Perine has 2 catches in each of the last 4 games while Gore has 8 catches all season. Perine is mostly a desperation flex play in season-long leagues, but he costs little more than the minimum on DraftKings and I’ve got a feeling he’s going to outplay that cost.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 11: @Jax.): McFarland missed last week’s game with an illness, but should be good to go for week 11. Prior to his absence, he had played more snaps than Benny Snell in week 10 and seemed to be starting to carve out a bigger role for himself. The key to this matchup for McFarland will be garbage time, and how much of it there will be. I kind of suggested playing this game last week with AJ Dillon against these same Jaguars, and that didn’t work out so well, but it’s worth noting that McFarland could see some extended run if the Steelers get far enough out in front. He has more big-play speed than Snell, so he has a better chance of cashing that garbage time work into fantasy points. I wouldn’t look at him as anything more than a cheap DFS tournament play though.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): After seeing 10 targets in back-to-back games now that he plays primarily in the slot, I might be doing Hamler a disservice to call him a ‘deep-league sleeper’. If Drew Lock misses this game as expected, Hamler could lose a little bit of that mojo, but since he’s in the slot he’ll mostly avoid top corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Instead, he’ll face off with Nik Needham, which should result in some extra looks going Hamler’s way. The Dolphins allow the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Hamler should be in a pretty good spot to take advantage of a reasonable matchup. His price tag could be a steal at $3,600 on DraftKings, and he should be a decent flex option for deeper leagues.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 11: @LAC): Since returning from injury Mims has played a significant role in the Jets’ offense. He’s been on the field for 96% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks and seen 6 targets per game since his return. He’s played one game with Joe Flacco at QB, and in that game, he turned 8 targets into 4 catches and 62 yards. This week he faces a Chargers’ defense that does a pretty good job limiting wideouts, allowing the 6^th-fewest points per game to the position, but it’ll be Breshad Perriman who gets the toughest matchup, squaring off with Casey Heyward. Slot man Jamison Crowder will be the Jet with the most favorable matchup, but Flacco showed a willingness to take deep shots in his last start, and I’d expect Mims to be the guy who benefits if that happens again this week. He’s shown a built-in floor with at least 40 yards in each game he’s played, but he’s got an upside this week well beyond his $3,300 price tag on DraftKings.

WR Freddy Swain, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Keep a close eye on the status of Tyler Lockett for Thursday night before considering Swain. If Lockett is out the rookie has some sneaky upside for DFS tournaments, especially the Thursday showdown slate where he costs just $1,200 on DraftKings. Swain has been consistently playing around 30-35% of the offensive snaps with everybody healthy. It hasn’t really translated to targets, but he did manage to post 3-37 on 4 targets last Sunday. If Lockett misses the game or is limited, both Swain and David Moore would be in line for bigger roles against a defense that allows the 8^th-most points per game to opposing WRs. There would be upside for both, but Swain’s lower price tag will make him an intriguing option.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2^nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7^th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point *because* of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4^th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4^th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4^th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31^st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4^th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2^nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8^th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3^rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA and 6^th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9^th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4^th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13^th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8^th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16^th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options. 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3^rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.

RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3^rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.

WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13^th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.

WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5^th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2^nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3^rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5^th-most points per game to the position and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.

WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland,  but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17^th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

36.24 Fantasy Points

Patrick Mahomes put up his highest fantasy total in over a year (Week 8 of last season). It looked like the Chiefs offense got back on track, putting up 41 points and really taking it to the Raiders, the team that he really loves to play against. Going into this game, he already had more passing yards and passing TDs against the Raiders than any other team in the league (and it's only the first time they play this this year). This week, Mahomes was the top fantasy player in the league, putting up 406 yards and throwing 5 TDs, good for 36.24 points. This was his 3rd game with 400+ yards and 5+ touchdowns in his career, now tied for the all time lead for games with those stats with Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, and Joe Montana. That’s some impressive company.

8 Players with at Least 20 Carries

As the season moves on, the balance of run to pass always seems to shift to the run. Combine that with injuries and less depth, leading to fewer players to split carries, resulting in the most players getting 20+ carries all season. We had 8 players with at least 20 carries this week, and 11 of them with at least 15 carries. Having an RB who receives such a large cut of the carries on a single team is extremely valuable in fantasy football. Three players got 26+ carries: D’Andre Swift, Elijah Mitchell, and Najee Harris. Unfortunately, none of them found the end zone, keeping all of them from really having a big fantasy day.

9 D/ST With 10+ Points

It was a week for defenses to shine through. Offenses struggled - only two QBs had 3+ TDs, and only 2 QBs had 300+ passing yards. This week would have been even more underwhelming if not for Patrick Mahomes, but I digress. The defenses that scored at least double digit points are owned in 61% of Fleaflicker leagues - an ownership rate that actually isn’t that bad when you consider the top 6 only average out to 39% ownership. None of the teams in this top 9 gave up more than 17 points, so they earned their points the hard way. This, like most weeks, shows that D/ST is a position to go ahead and stream on a weekly basis unless you have one of the very top teams, and still their matchup is going to dictate if you want to start them or not.

33 Carries 

To elaborate on the rushing attempts mentioned earlier, it’s worth mentioning that D’Andre Swift had 33 carries for the Lions in Pittsburgh on Sunday in what we can all agree was the least inspiring end to a football game in quite a while. Swift’s 33 carries is the second highest total for any player in the NFL this year. In fact, he’s the only one not named Derrick Henry (33, 35) who has gone over 30 carries in a single game this season. Swift also more than doubled up his previous career high water mark, which he also coincidentally received in week 10 last year. Sunday also saw Swift run for 130 rush yards, another career high mark. Swift is on pace for almost 800 rushing yards this year, which would surprisingly be the most on the Lions since Joique Bell in 2014. The Lions’ last 1000 yard rusher came in the form of Reggie Bush (1006) in 2013, who had done it for the first time in 9 years. It’s really been downhill since Barry Sanders put up 10 straight 1000 yard seasons, 7 of those being over 1400 yards.

158.3 QB Rating

Two backup QBs took the field on Sunday and posted perfect QB ratings, but they were in very different situations. First off was Brian Hoyer, the man who has started at QB for 7 different teams. Hoyer came in during garbage time against the Browns and went a cool 3/3 for 85 yards and a TD while leading the Patriots on a quick 95 yard drive late in the 4th quarter to help pad everyone’s stats. Joe Flacco also saw action for the Jets, and apparently it was so refreshing to see him in there over Mike White that he might earn the start this week. Flacco also went 3/3, this time for just 47 yards and also had a TD. The best actual starting QB rating this week? Mac Jones and his 142.1 on the way to the Patriots’ 4th win in a row. The Pats are now 6-4, in the 6-seed for the playoffs and Jones is looking like the best rookie QB this year, though his fantasy numbers leave a lot to be desired - he has just one game over 20 points all season.