Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

We're just a couple of weeks away from the playoffs in fantasy football. Now's the time to get your rosters organized and make some tough decisions when it comes to the players that are performing on your team versus the big names that are not. For more discussion on these players, check out the Fantasy Finish Line, Week 10: Playoff Push! podcast.

Curtis Samuel (WR-CAR) Wk 7 @ NO, 14.3; Wk 8 vs ATL, 19.4, Wk 9 @ KC, 22.3 – Samuel is actually trending up over 5 games, going all the way back beginning in Week 4. Samuel did start the season rather slow, only eclipsing 4 targets once in the first 4 weeks. Now over the last 3 games, he has 7 carries and 20 targets. He has scored at least one TD per game during this stretch and finally broke the 100 yard mark last week. Samuel is not the most targeted player on his team by any means, but he is a dynamic player and the team wants to get the ball in his hands however they can. He has at least 1 carry in every game this season, and more than 1 in all but 2 games. Samuel is only owned in 69% of Fleaflicker leagues, so it’s even possible that he’s still available for you to pick up. A key member of the surprisingly good Panthers offense, he has decent matchups coming in his next 4 games, especially @ Minnesota and vs Denver. Samuel is an above average bye week or injury replacement.

Drew Lock (QB-DEN): ECR QB19 (Borderline QB2/3)

Week 6 (@NE): 10/24, 189 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 5/-1 rushing – 5.46 fpts

Week 7 (vs. KC): 42/40, 254 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3/8 rushing, 1 rush TD – 14.96 fpts

Week 8 (vs. LAC): 26/41, 248 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 2/-1 rushing – 20.82 fpts

Week 9 (@ ATL): 25/48, 313 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 7/47 rushing, 1 rush TD – 30.22 fpts

Going up against the Las Vegas Raiders defense in Week 10 presents another favorable matchup – The Raiders are giving up the 7^th most fantasy points to QBs (21.5 per game) and Lock has a lot of playmakers on the team - including Jerry Jeudy that we talk about below. Lock has attempted 40 or more passes three games in a row and could be considered a borderline QB1 in this matchup against the porous Raiders.

Going forward, Lock has matchups against the Dolphins, Saints, Chiefs, and Panthers, all of which are much tougher opponents to QBs as of week 9 (ranked at 19th, 13th, 25th, and 24^th respectively) than the Chargers, Falcons, and Raiders (4th, 2nd, and 7^th) defensive reprieve that he has been able to enjoy. It’s like the feeling when you’re on a tropical vacation but you have to return home next week to January in Chicago. So enjoy it while it lasts. My prediction is that Drew finishes top-10 in Week 10, but he should be left out on the waiver wire afterwards. Bundle up, Drew.

Jerry Jeudy (WR-DEN) Wk 7 vs KC, 3.0; Wk 8 vs LAC, 9.3; Wk 9 @ ATL, 22.0 – Jeudy’s usage on the Broncos has exploded the last few weeks. He has 24 targets over the last two games, more than the previous 4 games combined. Over those two weeks, he has the most targets on the team, which is always the spot you want your starting WRs in. Jeudy is owned in 76% of Fleaflicker leagues, so check your waiver wire to see if the rest of your league is asleep at the wheel. (Yes, that means that you were too).  Jeudy has really started to show off his route running skills, including a filthy play last week where he threw his hand up as if he was going deep, and then slammed on the brakes to nab a comeback  pass and ran it in for a score. He’s definitely developing a rapport with Drew Lock and just needs to work on bringing his completion percentage up from its current level of 49.2%. With mostly positive matchups coming up to end the season, his only top 5 defensive matchup is against the Chiefs, whom he already played against this year.

Terry McLaurin (WR-WAS): ECR WR6 (Borderline WR1/2)

Week 5 (vs. LAR): 3/7 for 26 yards – 4.10 fpts

Week 6 (@NYG): 7/12 for 74 yards – 10.90 fpts

Week 7 (vs. DAL): 7/11 for 90 yards, 1 TD – 18.50 fpts

Week 9 (vs. NYG): 7/8 for 115 yards, 1 TD – 21.00 fpts

So, with the possible exception of Antonio Gibson who has had some very nice performances, especially in weeks 4 and 7 with 20.80 and 18.80 fpts respectively, Scary Terry has been the only consistent fantasy performer on a week-to-week basis for Washington. In fact, he has not been targeted less than seven times a game this season.

Looking forward to the matchups in the future (Lions, Bengals, Cowboys, Steelers), the games against Detroit and Cincinnati might prove challenging but the Cowboys and Steelers are giving up a lot of points to WRs and Terry has already proven that it doesn’t matter who his QB is, only that there is a QB and he passes to Terry. Which will be the case as long as he’s healthy. It was good to see Smith still involving McLaurin heavily in the passing game and the Redskins are going to keep calling plays out there for #17 all season.

Ronald Jones (RB-TB) Wk 7 @ LV, 10.10; Wk 8 @NYG, 4.6; Wk 9 vs NO, 3.3 – After week 6, Ronald Jones was riding high. He was the first back this season to have 3 straight 100 yard games. He was seeing heavy usage in the passing game, but it all came crashing down in the last 3 weeks. He’s had 23 total carries over 3 games, which is not befitting an RB1 with 92% ownership in leagues. Worse yet, he’s combined for only 66 rushing yards during those games for a 2.8 yard per carry average. During this time, Leonard Fournette has seen more carries (27), so it’s a split at best going forward, with the larger portion of the split apparently going to Fournette. Jones may not be a lost cause altogether, but it’s going to be very hard to predict. If both backs are healthy, you might as well flip a coin to decide which guy will be better. If either gets hurt, the other one will resume a dominant role as the every down back. Matchups this week and in Week 16 are against teams giving up top 5 fantasy points to opposing RBs, so not all is lost with Jones. You’ll just need to pick your spots carefully and hope that the game flow is in your favor.

Jonnu Smith (WR-TEN): ECR TE13 (Borderline TE1/2, used to be TE1 earlier in the season)

Week 7 (vs PIT): 1/4 for 9 yards, 0 TDs – 1.40 fpts

Week 8 (@CIN): 2/2 for 29 yards, 0 TDs – 3.90 fpts

Week 9 (vs CHI): 2/2 for 32 yards, 1 TD – 10.20 fpts

Jonnu Smith is still the TE5 overall so far this season with 78.4 fpts, averaging 9.8 fpts per game. In a world where the point difference between the TE1 (Travis Kelce) and TE10 (Dalton Schultz) is 74.1, more points than the #8 TE (Robert Tonyan) has scored all year, you have to keep what success you can find close to the chest.

Smith returns to must-start territory after finally having a plus day in week 9, but it should be noted that the Colts are only giving up the 2^nd fewest points in the league to the TE position. Scary stuff from someone who is only getting 2-3 targets per game right now. So why is that? Well, the Titans have A.J. Brown healthy, Corey Davis actually doing things, and TE Anthony Firkser has been sucking up a similar number of targets per game as Smith, also with limited success.

I believe that this particular matchup will be a tough one and that Smith will most likely only be able to save his day with a touchdown, and the next few matchups that the Titans have to deal with (Ravens, Colts, Browns) are also in the top half of the league as far as preventing fantasy points from the position. Hold on to Smith for the fantasy playoffs in a deep league, but otherwise he’s a tough sell here. Of course, you may not be able to find anyone better in this year’s TE wasteland.