Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally been able to watch meaningful pro football again, unless you, like Jim Carrey, believe nothing has any meaning. It was an exciting first week, with several strong rookie performances. There were hits and misses from me on what to do in the opening week with those rookies, but that’ll be the case every week, and overall I’ll take last week’s results.

I was spot on with the top-5 picks of most rookie drafts (Corey Davis, Dalvin, Fournette, McCaffrey and Mixon), but I was off on Kenny Golladay and was way too tepid with my expectations for Kareem Hunt who wound up the top scoring fantasy player. I had Tarik Cohen pegged as a sleeper for week 1, but not even I expected the outburst he put up against Atlanta. My biggest miss of the week was probably Zay Jones, who I had pegged for 5+ catches, and he wound up with just 1-for-21 on 4 targets. I should get a clearer picture of who these guys are as the year progresses, but I’d chalk up week one as a success. Let’s dive in to what to expect in week 2…

Rookies to Start:

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Phi.): I liked Hunt as a season-long option, but was unsure about how he would do last week. I was wrong to be unsure. After fumbling on his first touch of the game, he was fantastic and dismantled the Patriots’ defense. He might never duplicate the point total he put up on opening night, but there is no way you can sit him after what he did in New England. You should temper expectations a little bit with his matchup against Philly. The Eagles allowed the 12^th fewest RB points last year, but Hunt should have no problem returning RB2 value this week.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): The Jaguars are going to run Fournette until the wheels fall off. He handled 29 touches last week (20 in the first half!), and had success against a stout Texans defensive front. The Titans gave up 76 yards to Marshawn Lynch in week one, and Lynch hadn’t played in an NFL game since January of 2016. If Leonard approaches the kind of volume he saw in week one, he’s got a solid shot of ending as an RB1 again.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): The Rams will likely have to throw a bit more this week if Todd Gurley continues to be as ineffective as he was on Sunday, and Kupp was targeted  a team-high 6 times in the opener. Sammy Watkins will likely be shadowed by Josh Norman in this matchup, and Washington ranked 29^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to #2 receivers last season. They also just gave up 6-86-1 to Nelson Agholor last weekend. I like Kupp more than I did in week 1, when he posted 4-76-1. He should be targeted early and often, and he could easily wind up as a WR2 this week, especially in PPR leagues.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Dalvin Cook, MIN (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Cook was impressive in the opener, but it was against a bad Saints defense that ranked 23^rd in run defense DVOA a season ago. The Steelers ranked 11^th in that same stat, and they held Isaiah Crowell to a 17-33 rushing line on Sunday. Cook should still be involved in the passing game, but I’d be surprised if he approached the 137 scrimmage yards he posted on Monday night. Volume will keep him in play as a RB2/Flex option, and you’re probably starting him, but there some reason for pause this week.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Week one was both good and bad for McCaffrey. On the one hand, he was given 18 touches and was an integral part of the offense as promised. On the other hand, Jonathan Stewart remained the goal line back and saw more touches than CMC, and the game script won’t always be positive enough for them to combine for 38 touches. Head coach Ron Rivera has already talked about not wanting to “wear his batteries out,” so I’m not sure I’d expect the volume to continue at that level. This week CMC gets to face the Bills, who were really bad against RBs last year (allowed 5^th most points), but they did hold the Jets’ backs to 13-38 on the ground and 8-37 through the air on 11 targets in week one. Granted, it’s the Jets, who are terrible. At the end of the day, McCaffrey’s outlook in week 2 is similar to what it was in week one. He’s an upside RB2/Flex option with a plus matchup. His speed and playmaking ability gives him week-winning potential, but he could just put up another 80 scoreless yards.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Cohen was a shock to even most Bears fans last weekend, and while his results may have been due to a sweet matchup with the Falcons, he’s clearly going to be a featured part of the offense going forward. The Bears are desperate for playmakers in the passing game, especially with Kevin White done for the season yet again, and Jordan Howard demonstrated once again that it won’t be him after dropping a game-tying touchdown in the closing seconds. Enter Tarik Cohen, who turned a ridiculous 12 targets into 8-47-1, while also rushing for 66 yards. He isn’t going to put up those numbers every single week, but his skill set and the way the Bears will deploy him reminds me a bit of Dion Lewis from two years ago with the Patriots. Before getting hurt that year, Lewis averaged 5 catches and 89 scrimmage yards per game, and he scored 4 TDs in 7 games. If Cohen continues to be used like this and stays healthy, he has legitimate top-15 RB upside in PPR leagues. He gets another favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay. We haven’t seen the Bucs yet this season, but last year they allowed the 11^th most fantasy points to RBs, and ranked 26^th in run defense DVOA and 26^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. I doubt he sees another 12 targets, but Cohen is on the RB2 map in PPR leagues and a flex option in standard formats.

RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. SF): Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has already said that he expects Thomas Rawls to play this week, but I think it’s very possible that he’s eased in. If that’s the case, it’s Carson who would spell him on early downs, not Eddie Lacy. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite against the 49ers, so Carson would likely see extra work in the case of a blowout, and he impressed in limited opportunities against Green Bay. There is a very low floor here with Rawls back, but Carson is an upside flex option who could be a week-winner if things break his way. The 49ers allowed 3 more points per game to opposing RBs than any other team in the league last year, and allowed 27.8 to the Carolina backs in the opener. They also lost linebacker Rueben Foster to a high ankle sprain in that game. All Carson needs is the opportunity.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Davis came out with a strong debut after missing the entire preseason, posting 6-69 on a team-high 10 targets, despite playing fewer snaps than Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker. Davis played 42 snaps while Decker played 60 and Matthews played 52. Another week removed from his return, I’d expect Davis to play a higher snap percentage. The matchup is tougher this week, and he may have to lock horns with standout corner Jalen Ramsey. Hopefully he’s able to avoid the shadow treatment. The Jaguars allowed the 7^th fewest points to WRs in 2016. Given the tough scenario, a repeat of last week’s numbers would be a successful day, even with an increased snap count.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 2: @NYG): Golladay was a big-time performer in week one, with a 4-69-2 line while splitting WR3 snaps with TJ Jones. I’d expect that split to move even more in favor of Golladay going forward (Kenny outsnapped TJ 44-18 in week 1). Unfortunately for BabyTron (thanks @LateRoundQB), a repeat of Sunday’s performance will be hard to come by against the stingy Giants secondary. The Giants ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA last year, and despite struggling to defend the Cowboys last week, they allowed just 2-43 to Dez Bryant on 9 targets. Golladay is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): Engram clearly has a prominent role in the Giants’ passing game, and he may actually get better with Odell Beckham back and drawing coverage away. Brandon Marshall struggled mightily in the opener, so Engram may get more red zone opportunities than expected. The Lions coughed up the 3^rd most TE points last year, so Engram should make for a reasonable streaming option this week whether OBJ is back in the lineup or not.

Rookies to Sit:

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Kizer had some good moments in an impressive debut vs. Pittsburgh, but this week he goes on the road to face a defense that forced 5 turnovers from Andy Dalton last Sunday. The best-case scenario for Kizer would be a repeat of last week, but I think it’s more likely that he takes a step back. He’s just a low-end QB2 option with upside this week.

QB DeShaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cin.): No one was surprised that Watson was forced into action in week 1, but he didn’t look ready for prime time just yet. He posted just 4.44 yards per attempt and turned the ball over twice in a blowout loss. I don’t expect things to get much better this week. He’s battling an ankle injury, has a short week with a Thursday night game, and the Texans o-line should continue to struggle. The returns for Watson were mixed in week 1, but he should be avoided in week 2.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): The Texans struggled to contain Jacksonville’s rushing attack on Sunday, but they look like a tough run defense on paper and Mixon didn’t exactly impress in his limited week 1 role. He led the Bengals’ backfield with 11 touches, but totaled just 24 yards. The touches were split fairly evenly between Mixon, Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Until Mixon is able to separate himself from the other 2, this looks like a situation to avoid.

RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Ty Montgomery proved this is his backfield in week 1. TyMo played 90% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, and after posting PFF’s highest pass protection grade among RBs for the week, I’d expect that workhorse role to continue for him going forward. Williams received just 2 carries in the opener, and at this point likely needs an injury to Montgomery to return value any time soon.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): The Colts offense was predictably a mess while helmed by Scott Tolzien last weekend, and although Mack scored a TD, he also had 9 carries for zero yards outside of his longest carry of the day (24 yards). He also only had 4 touches in the first 2 and a half quarters of the game, and didn’t see extended run until the Colts were being blown out. They may very well get blown out again this week and turn to Mack in garbage time, but it’s hard to bank on. The Cardinals didn’t play well as a team last week, but they did hold the Lions’ RBs to 58 yards on 25 carries. The Lions don’t boast a great run offense, but neither do the Colts. Mack should be left on the pine.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 2: @Car.): It was promising that Tyrod Taylor looked better in the opener than he did in the preseason, but disheartening that Zay was out-targeted by both Charles Clay and Shady McCoy. The Bills will be a low-volume passing attack all year, and 4 targets won’t cut it for fantasy purposes for Zay. There will be game scripts that call for more passing, but you’d like to see more of a connection between Zay and Tyrod before running Jones out there in fantasy lineups.

WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): There may be even fewer snaps for Taylor this week than the 6 offensive snaps he played last week now that Davis is closer to 100%. He did manage 2-14 on those 6 snaps, which is nice efficiency, but he belongs firmly planted on the bench until his role increases.

WR ArDarius Stewart, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Oak.): It’ll be tough to consider any Jets pass catcher until the offense demonstrates they can throw the ball. Stewart may lose snaps to Jeremy Kerley this week, and was mostly a non-factor on Sunday while Kerley was a healthy scratch, posting 2-10 on 5 targets. It’s going to be an ugly season for the Jets.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Howard should be used mostly as a blocker early in the year, with Cameron Brate serving more in the receiving TE role. The Bears allowed just the 22^nd most points to opposing TEs a year ago, and didn’t allow a single target to Austin Hooper until a long TD on a broken play in the 4^th quarter. Howard is a dynasty stash who might not do that much damage in redraft leagues this year.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Njoku was targeted just twice in the opener, and this week faces off with a defense that allowed the 7^th fewest TE points a season ago and held Tyler Eifert to 1-4 on 1 target on Sunday. You would be best off avoiding Njoku this week.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 2: @Sea.): The Iowa product showed he was over his hamstring injury with 5 catches in the opener, but the Panthers allowed the 2^nd most TE points in the league last year. Seattle allowed the 4^th fewest. Kittle will be targeted a handful of times this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to have much success with them.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Although the Patriots allowed the fewest RB points in the league last year in standard scoring, only the Atlanta Falcons allowed more receptions to the position, and Kansas City’s backs just shredded them in week 1. Kamara led New Orleans RBs in snaps and touches in week 1, and he is likely going to be their primary receiving back. This game could turn into a shootout, so he may increase the 50% snap share he played a week ago. Kamara’s volume is probably too low to trust him as anything more than a flex option in deep PPR leagues, but he could be a great DFS tournament option at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Godwin is strictly a boom-or-bust punt option for DFS tournaments. He’s at least behind Mike Evans and D-Jax on the depth chart, but he might also play fewer snaps than Adam Humphries. His floor for this week is zero points, but he has dazzled in every opportunity he’s been given. He’s been compared to Roddy White by his head coach this preseason, I expect them to try to get Godwin involved a handful of times on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a couple of big plays.

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): Just like last week, the Rams face a defense that was below average against TEs last year (Washington allowed 10^th most points to them), and McVay likes to use the position a lot. Everett turned his only target last week into a 39-yard gain. I’d expect him to see a few more targets this week, and is a nice TD dart throw that will cost the minimum in DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the tougher lineup decisions you have to make involving your rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report through the week, and make sure to check for any surprise inactives on game day. If you have any questions, or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

14.6 Yards per Carry

Isaiah Crowell (CAW!!!) turned in the best rushing yards total for anyone on the season with a whopping 219 yards. What's more impressive is that he reached that total on just 15 carries, good for a 14.6 yards each time he was handed the ball. As stated by our very own Mike Mocerino just two weeks ago on our podcast, Crowell is an odd-week player. It's now...a trend? In weeks 1, 3 and 5, Crowell has 68.4 points thanks to 355 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In weeks 2 and 4, he's got a whopping 4.20 points. For now, Mike's Nostradamus-like prediction of Crowell's season has held true and is a trend that I'll be considering when setting my lineup on at least one team. Crowell finds himself as the 8th best RB on the season in total fantasy points. If you take the average of just his odd week games, he's 3rd, behind only Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley.

2 Turnovers, 28.68 Fantasy Points

Aaron Rodgers had one of the most unique games of his career in Detroit on Sunday. In the first half, all the Packers drives either ended on an Aaron Rodgers fumble, or a Mason Crosby missed field goal. Rodgers would finish the game with his best stat line of the season, throwing for 442 yards and 3 TDs and was the QB2 this week (so far) just behind Tom Brady. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the Packers just can't quit Mason Crosby, who missed 4 field goal attempts and his lone extra point try. That's 13 points in a game that the Packers lost by 8, if anyone's counting. Crosby did kick a 41 yard FG as the game ended, so I guess he's warmed up for next week. Given the state of kicking in the NFL this year, Crosby's job is assured through at least next week, but I have to at least wonder if the Packers might go for it on 4th and medium a bit more now, considering that no-man's land seems to be expanding for their kicker.

5 Straight 100-yard Games

Adam Thielen has set a league record by starting the season with 5 straight games with at least 100 receiving yards. This amazing consistency (with a brand new QB) has him as the #1 WR in standard scoring, just above Cooper Kupp. That's right, Cooper Kupp is the #2 overall WR through 5 weeks of the NFL. They say that the white WRs are gritty, maybe they have the emergence of Gritty to thank for this success. Thielen's 13 targets per game is tied with Antonio Brown for the most on the season. I expect his production to continue considering the Vikings running game is non-existent so far this season. At 2, Kupp is maintaining his strong fantasy performances by finding the end zone 5 times this year. In fact, he only has one game where he has not scored a TD. The Rams continue to roll, the Vikings are finding an offensive groove, and both of these WRs will have the opportunity to turn in career years if they can keep this up.

9 TDs on the Season

Todd Gurley is steamrolling through all the teams he has played this season, finding the end zone 9 times in just 5 games. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and has amazing consistency. His low total was in week 3 where he had 19.6 points. It feels nice when a consensus #1 overall pick can play like it. Right behind him at the top is Alvin Kamara, who hasn't even played this week, but is still the #2 overall RB. These two guys are in a class of their own and are on offenses that are total juggernauts. If Gurley can keep up this pace, he will have over 2000 yards from scrimmage and 28 TDs on the year. That's a bit of a stretch to extrapolate that over just 5 games, but what else is this column for? While we're at it, Jared Goff is going to throw for 5500 yards and 38 TDs. This is fun!

22 Points for the D/ST

A pair of teams reached 22 points for the defense and special teams in week 5. The Cincinnati Bengals scored twice on defense in their impressive comeback against the Dolphins. The Kansas City Chiefs defense finally found their way to the field on the same day as their offense. The picked off Blake Bortles 4 times, sacked him 5 times and scored a TD en route to putting up 22 fantasy points. An honorable mention goes to the Arizona Cardinals, putting up 21 fantasy points in their first victory of the season. I don't know what conclusions to draw from all of this, as I find D/STs (and kickers) to be very chaotic and unpredictable. Backing up my claim is the fact that the top 5 D/STs this week are all owned by less than 50% of Yahoo teams. The Rams, Jags and Eagles all combined for 10 points this week. Streamers rejoice!  

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

525 Passing Yards

Joe Burrow had a hell of a game on Sunday, notching the highest point total of the week - the second highest going to his teammate, Tee Higgins, who had an equally gaudy stat line. Burrow went 37 of 46 for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns, tacking on 11 rushing yards just because. Burrow had 38.1 fantasy points, which was well ahead Dak Prescott’s 31.3 points (the QB2 of the week), but then again, Dak didn’t even play 3 full quarters. Joe Burrow outgained every single team in the league so far in Week 16, and I don’t see a serious challenge to that stat coming tonight. It is Burrow’s best game as a pro - his two highest passing games have come this year against the Ravens. Burrow is now the first player to throw for 400+ yards twice in one season against the same opponent, putting up a total of 941 yards against Baltimore, also a record for any QB against one opponent in a season. This is the most passing yards in a game since 2014 and Burrow now sits as the 4th highest passing yardage total of all time - just 3 shy of taking the 2nd overall spot, but still a bit behind Norm Van Brocklin’s 554 yards against the New York Football Yanks, way back when the Rams were in Los Angeles. Time is truly a flat circle.

132 Receptions

Cooper Kupp is now on pace to have a shot at breaking Michael Thomas’s single season receptions record. Some might complain that it’s easier with a 17-game season, and while that’s true, I find it mostly irrelevant. New records will not go into the book with an asterisk, and the season is unlikely to have fewer games in the future. The playing field is always changing, along with rules, and eras are just different, so deal with it and just enjoy the fun of players breaking records. Thanks for allowing me that digression - on to the numbers. Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor are neck-and-neck for the most non-QB points on the season. Kupp has 325.4, Taylor has 324.2 and the next closest player is a whopping 60 points behind them. Taylor has the edge in yards gained (1,962) and touchdowns (19), but Kupp is certainly the beneficiary of the half PPR system, which has netted him an additional 66 points. At the end of this season, I’ve considered the merits of a point per first down, rather than point per reception (half or full), and I think it could be a trend that takes off in fantasy football. There are slightly fewer first downs on average, but awarding a full point instead of a half point would still boost scoring a little bit, and assign it to the players who make a bigger impact on the game.

37.4 Fantasy Points

The aforementioned Tee Higgins was the biggest beneficiary of Joe Burrow’s career game. He put up the second highest point total for any wide receiver this season, only eclipsed by Tyreek Hill’s 42.1 point performance in week 4. Higgins put up the 4th highest receiving yardage total on the season. Bengals receivers (Higgins and Chase) now have two of the top 4 receiving yardage totals on the season. Higgins has improved on nearly every statistical category from his rookie year. He’s averaging 1 more yard per reception, 1.3 more receptions per game, over 22 more yards per game, his catch percentage has jumped more than 5%, and even his yards per target has gone up by 1.4. Higgins may not have been the big storyline of the Bengals with Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon taking the headlines so far this year, but it’s clear that he’s rounding out into a proper star in the NFL and is a key part of one of the youngest team cores in the league.

-4 Yards Rushing

Melvin Gordon accomplished the unique feat of finishing with negative rushing yards without exiting the game early with injury or losing yards on a kneel down. To be fair to Gordon, he had a 4 yard reception, so he finished the day with a net total of zero yards from scrimmage. On average, for every carry, Gordon went backwards 20 inches. Gordon’s final 3 carries went for -3, -4, and -3 yards. He opened the game with a 4 yard carry, and could not gain more than 1 yard at a time after that, aside from his single 4 yard reception. Obviously the Broncos have a rough situation without Teddy Bridgewater, but sometimes I just like to have a little bit of fun at the expense of a guy who’s been taking carries from Javonte Williams all year! Am I a little biased? Did I draft Javonte in my dynasty league this year? Yes.

19.75 Fantasy Points Per Game

Finally, a shout out to the Dallas Cowboys D/ST squad. Over the last 4 games, they are averaging 19.75 points per game, (16.42 over the last 7). They have been absolutely dominant in real and fantasy football, winning all of their last 4 games, allowing just 14.25 points per game - and we know that 7 of those last night were just total garbage points. The Cowboys D/ST are the #1 D/ST in fantasy football. They have scored more than any kicker this year, and more points than all but 2 tight ends. They have scored 9 total touchdowns this year, and have a whopping 25 interceptions, led by Trevon Diggs who has an astonishing 11 interceptions - the highest single season total since Everson Walls had 11 in 1981. Diggs still has 2 games left to keep adding on, and as I mentioned before, I don’t care that he has more games in a season than other players.