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The fantasy season is almost upon us, and every year we like to take the preseason to break down each position individually. We’ll be starting this year with the Quarterbacks. This article will focus on QB’s that have good draft value, and others that do not. Remember, this isn’t exactly who’s going to land in or out of the top 10 this year, but it’s who you can target, or avoid, in a draft to get yourself the best roster.

For a more in-depth discussion, check out our podcast from 8/18/15, The QB Show!

QB’s that have good value:

Can Palmer start all 16 games this season?

Carson Palmer - #11 on our rankings, Palmer is an excellent QB, when healthy. The Cardinals have a decent offense which was able to move the ball when Palmer was out last year. Their defense will make sure the offense gets plenty of possessions. Palmer has an ECR of 19, giving him the largest gap of any QB on our list. His ADP of 22 (153 overall) means that you can take him at the end of nearly every draft, and have a guy that we think should finish just outside the top 10.

Palmer Targets: Fitz!, Michael Floyd, Jaron & John Brown, Andre Ellington, CJ?K, Whoever starts at TE.

Relevant stats: Arizona threw the ball 35.1 times per game in 2014, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Palmer is on a 3-year trend upward (extrapolating last year's stats over 16 games). The Cardinals' window is closing fast, look for them to pull out all the stops to make a Super Bowl run this year.

Tom Brady - #8 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 14, mostly, I suspect, due to his looming suspension. If he plays all 16, I think he’ll go up a bit. Overall, I think we underestimate Tom every year, and every year he’s playing in January, so he must be doing something right. What we do know about Brady is that he has Gronk, and it doesn’t really matter who else is there.

Brady Targets: Edelman, Gronk!, Tyms, Amendola, Bolden/White/Blount/Gray, Reggie Wayne (New!), LaFell

Relevant stats: The Pats threw the ball 38.6 times per game last year, 7th most in the league. Brady has thrown over 30 TD's in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and usually keeps the INT's low. Don't be fooled by the lack of targets, it's never bothered Brady.

Tony Romo - #5 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 9 and an ADP of 8. Romo’s value is going up, he’s currently being drafted about 1 round higher than his overall ranking would put him, however we rank him even higher, so there is still value to be had here. Romo is a tough QB leading what is likely to be a top 5 offense in the NFL this season. Romo is the highest tier QB with a good value rating.

Romo Targets: Dez Bryant (over 135 targets each of the last 3 years), Witten, Williams, Beasley, Randle/Dunbar/McFadden

Relevant stats: Last year, Dallas threw the ball only 29.2 times per game, the second fewest in the league. Romo made the most of the times he did throw the ball, leading the league in completion % (69.9), TD % (7.8) and yards per pass attempt (8.5). He has been trending up in TD's and down in INT's over the last 3 years. Romo is playing better than he ever has and will need to pick up the slack after Demarco Murray's departure. Don't worry about his age either, he may be over 35, but he's only started 20 more games than Rodgers, so he has plenty of football left in him.

This guy got $65 million...

Philip Rivers - #10 on our rankings, his ECR is 13, so we’re not too far off there, but it’s a game of inches, isn’t it? Rivers just got a huge new contract, with something like $65 mil GUARANTEED. That means it’s his job to now go out and prove to the team that he deserves it. The Chargers’ ground game got a big upgrade this season, drafting Melvin Gordon #14 overall. This should take a bit of pressure off Rivers. Rivers had 31 TD’s, but also 18 INT’s. He’s generally not that errant of a passer, so if he can cut down on the picks, he will finish in the top 10 yet again.

Rivers Targets: Allen, Malcom Floyd, Jacoby Jones, Stevie Johnson (dave’s guy!), Gates/Green, Gordon/Woodhead/Oliver

Relevant stats: San Diego threw the ball 35.9 times per game last season, 14th in the league, but threw it 43 times per game in the last 3 games, two of which were against division opponents. Rivers has gone over 4000 yards in 6 of the last 7 seasons and over 30 TD's in 5 of them. He's wonderfully consistent and can be counted on to be in the top 12 every years. Pick him up when he's available late. Oh yea, the new contract doesn't hurt his outlook any.

QB’s that are overvalued:

Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick is ranked 22 on our sheets and has an ECR of 15. He won’t be drafted as a starter in standard leagues anyways, but I wanted to just reiterate how much we do not like the 49ers offense this year. The rankings, thankfully, agree with us. His overall stats for the last 3 years have been underwhelming, so let someone else reach for him as their backup QB.

Kaepernick Targets: Boldin, Smith, Davis, Hyde/Bush – See why we aren’t hyped?

Relevant stats: the 49ers threw the ball only 30.4 times per game last year, good for 29th in the league. Kaepernick already only completes 60.1% of his passes through his career, so you need to rely on his feet to get you big points. The problem there is that his rushing TD's have gone from 5 to 4 to 1. Are you ready to bet it's going back up to 5? His Int's are the other alarming trend, going up each year that he's been in the league.

Cam's job got a lot harder with Benjamin going down.

Cam Newton – Newton has a rank of 13 on our sheet, but an ECR of 7. He’s clearly favored by pundits and fans alike, but our rankings sheet is not so high on him. Newton has slightly regressed in his stat line every year since he broke into the league back in 2011. Even though it may “feel” like Newton is due to rebound back to what he had his rookie year, his risk is not worth the price you have to pay. His ceiling is actually rather low, especially considering he will run less and less as he gets older. It’s not worth it, in my opinion, to draft a guy as the 7^th best QB when he really only has a shot at being #5 at the very highest.

Newton Targets: Benjamin, Ginn, Funchess, Cotchery, Corey Brown, Olsen, Stewart/Tolbert/Whittaker

Relevant stats: Carolina threw the ball 34.1 times per game last season, but Newton only has a career 59.5 completion %. Newton has also only thrown the ball about 31 times per game in his career, so I expect his pass attempts to stay flat, at best. Newton was only the 16th best fantasy QB last year, right above our buddy Kaepernick. At least he's above the Andy Dalton line.

Ryan Tannehill - #14 in our rankings, Tannehill is a guy who we have been pumping up all year, and it looks like we’re not the only ones. His ECR is 10, so the experts like him, and his ADP of 13 indicates that he hasn’t quite caught up to his ECR in the rest of the fantasy world. Here’s the thing though, Tannehill is the QB who is being hyped as the best value or biggest jump from last year. News like this spreads like wildfire and the draft season is now in full swing. Just this past weekend, I was in a draft where he was the 7th overall QB taken, late in the 6th round.

Tannehill Targets: Landry, Cameron, Jennings, Parker, Miller, Stills

Relevant stats: Miami was in the top half of the league, throwing the ball 37.2 times per game in 2014. Tannehill's stats have generally been trending up over his first three years in the league. They just got Jordan Cameron and drafted Devante Parker. Yes, things are looking up for Ryan Tannehill, but the secret's out. He's got a good shot at going too early in your draft. Give a silent nod and just move on. If he's available closer to his ADP of 13, then go for it.

Week 12 is upon us and brings with it bonus Turkey Day games to watch while the inevitable food coma sets in. No bye weeks this week so you should be at full strength assuming the week 11 injuries didn't hit your team too hard. Don't forget to put your waiver claims in, set your lineup for Thursday morning and Happy Holidays!

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick (SF) - 18% owned - There aren't any teams on bye this week so most people should be ok at the quarterback position, but if not you should look towards Kaepernick.  He has been averaging QB1 numbers this season at 20 pts per game and his rushing yards gives him a high floor.

Running Back

Wendall Smallwood (PHI) - 5% owned - Smallwood should be up for an increased workload this week against the Packers since Ryan Mathews is dealing with a sprained MCL and Darren Sproles suffered a fractured rib. Should be a great volume play against an injured Packers defense.

Mike Gillislee (BUF) - 25% owned - LeSean McCoy may have to sit out this week after having surgery to repair an injured thumb. If McCoy does sit then Gillislee will be a great play in a run heavy offense against a Jaguars defense allowing 113 yards per game on the ground.

Honorable mentions: Tim Hightower (NO) - 50% owned, Adrian Peterson (MIN) - 32% owned

Wide Receiver

Michael Floyd (ARZ) - 48% owned - Arizona receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald have been very inconsistent this season but I think this is the week Floyd will have a big game in a dream matchup against the Falcons defense who are giving up a league-worst 29 receptions and 297 yards per game.

Tyler Boyd (CIN) - 6% owned - With A.J. Green looking at a multi-week hamstring injury and Giovanni Bernard out for the remainder of the season with an ACL tear, the Bengals will need to look elsewhere for pass catching options. Boyd, LaFell and Eifert should all see boosts in targets but I believe Boyd has a higher upside than LaFell going forward if you need some depth at the WR position.

Honorable mentions: Brandon LaFell (CIN) - 11% owned, Sammy Watkins (BUF) - 42% owned

Tight End

Vance McDonald (SF) - 8% owned - McDonald appears to have developed some chemistry with Colin Kaepernick lately as he has 180 yards and two touchdowns over the last three weeks. Not a bad play if you are desperately looking for points at TE.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens (BAL) - 48% owned - Baltimore has been a top ten fantasy defense all season long and draws a Bengals team in week 12 who is depleted of playmakers. Look for another solid performance from the Ravens defense.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

199 Yards Kicked

Justin Tucker kicked 3-50+ yard field goals in the first half of Sunday's game - two of them coming inside the final two minutes of the half. For the game, he kicked 4 FG's totaling 199 yards - a completely meaningless and thus fitting stat. Just the kind of stat that is followed by a slow-clap worthy dad joke to begin a press conference. Or perhaps a play where an entire team is held, and then gives up a safety in order to secure victory. The Ravens aren't pretty to watch, but damn it's interesting.

3 Plays in a Row

The Chiefs had a sequence of three plays in a row where they scored points in Sunday night's game in Denver. A safety, followed by a return of the ensuing free kick and then the extra point locked up 9 points in just 16 seconds for the Chiefs. It's not unheard of to have several plays score points a row in a game, however, the same team doing it on more than two plays in a row is not something I remember seeing. This game also had another fun stat I appreciated. Emmanuel Sanders had 99 yards (and a TD) on a drive that started from the Denver 12. Yay, penalties! Also, my dynasty team thanks you, Sanders.

7 Fourth Quarter Comebacks

The first place, 7-4 Detroit Lions have won all of their games after being down in the fourth quarter. It's not often a result of a pretty Matt Stafford performance, but he has figured out how to just win games this year. The Lions essentially have a 2-game lead over the Vikings, by virtue of the tiebreaker, and there are only 5 games left in the regular season. Meanwhile, the collapse continues in Minneapolis, where it'll be a cold, cold winter if they miss the playoffs after starting the season 5-0.

34.14 Fantasy Points

Colin Kaepernick lead all fantasy players in Week 12 with 34.14 points, and is the 3rd best QB over last 4 weeks, averaging 25.18 points per week. The Niners have not, of course, won a single game with Kaep at the helm, but it shouldn't stop you from winning fantasy games! He's owned in only 24% of leagues (it was 18% going into yesterday's game). His superpower this year is garbage time, so as long as the 49ers stay awful, he will have plenty of room to run in the 4th quarter, and opponents will be lulled into sleeping after three quarters of nothing going on. I dunno, I just see a guy with a really high fantasy floor who has outperformed most other QBs when it comes to fantasy production.

6% Owned in Yahoo Leagues

I swear this isn't turning into a waiver wire article - I'm just borrowing a few stats. Taylor Gabriel is owned in only 6% of Yahoo leagues (3% before the game yesterday). He's quietly been the second best WR in all of fantasy over the last 4 weeks, nearly a full point per week ahead of Mike Evans and trailing only Antonio Brown, who just scored another touchdown on his way out of Indianapolis. I'm not saying that this kind of production can keep up, but over the last 4 games, the Falcons have found a guy who knows how to find the end zone. The Falcons have won every game where he has at least 2 catches and are 1-4 when he doesn't. Now if that's not misleadingly insignificant, I don't know what is. Or is it? I've had too much turkey this weekend, and it's going to my head.

We've reached the final week before the fantasy playoffs. If you are desperately looking for a win to make it in or if you're already in and just looking ahead to your playoff matchups or if you are eliminated and just want to play spoiler then I'm here to help you out. TWO teams on bye this week; Browns and Titans. Good Luck!

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick (SF) - 24% owned - Kaepernick has been on a tear lately averaging just over 25 fantasy points per game over his last four which is good for 7th best for all QBs in standard scoring during that stretch.  There shouldn't be any slowing down for him this week as he draws a depleted Bears defense.

Honorable mention: Alex Smith (KC) - 25% owned

Running Back

Kenneth Dixon (BAL) - 29% owned - It looks as though Dixon has finally surpassed Terrance West in the Ravens backfield as he out-snapped West for the first time this season.  This will most likely be a timeshare situation next week, but if Dixon plays well or if West falters then we should see Dixon take a larger role going forward.

Bilal Powell (NYJ) - 42% owned - Powell has been getting consistent work lately and he has averaged almost 10 fantasy points per game over his last four starts. If you're in a pinch for a running back you can look this way as the Jets play against a weak Colts team giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Honorable mention: Adrian Peterson (MIN) - 43% owned

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (KC) - 37% owned - Hill made a name for himself on Sunday night after catching 9 of 10 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown, rushing for another touchdown and returning a free kick after a safety for a third score. If he can put up this fantasy production against the Broncos then he shouldn't have any issues this week in a great matchup with the Falcons.

Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) - 28% owned - Enunwa looked to be falling out of fantasy relevance the past few weeks but he had a resurgence against the Patriots catching 5 of 5 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. He has two great matchups coming back to back, first against the Colts and then against 49ers.

Honorable mention: Tyler Boyd (CIN) - 50% owned

Tight End

Vance McDonald (SF) - 10% owned - Rolling with McDonald for the second straight week as he continues to put up numbers with Kaepernick under center. He is the number eight tight end in standard scoring over the past four weeks and has consistently been getting 6 or 7 targets a game.

Honorable mention: C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) - 35% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) - 5% owned - Not many great streaming options available for this week, but the Bucs have  the second highest fantasy scoring defense over the past four games. They have been getting good pressure and sacks on opposing quarterbacks in this stretch so expect that to continue against Rivers this week.