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12
October

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 5

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

39.1 Fantasy Points

Rookie Chase Claypool exploded onto the fantasy radar yesterday with a huge game, scoring 4 TDs against the Eagles and leading the Steelers to a victory. Claypool touched the ball 10 times and found the end zone on 4 of them, putting up 116 yards from scrimmage. His 39.1 fantasy points were about 50% more than Travis Fulgham’s 26.2 points, the second-highest non-QB point scorer on the week. This also means that the top two skill players that aren’t a QB were almost certainly not started in your league, and probably weren’t even owned in your league. Claypool spread his scoring around, getting one TD in each quarter of the game. On the other side of that game, while Miles Sanders had an impressive 74-yard TD run early on, he managed only 6 more yards on his other 10 carries. The Steelers are still the best against opposing RBs in the league.

32 Points

The Browns have now put up over 30 points in each of the last 4 games, all of them wins. They are 4-1 and are playing well in perhaps the toughest division in the league. This week’s win was perhaps the best of the season because it came against the Colts, who had the best defense in the league going into the game. The Browns have continued to commit to running the ball, cumulating another 33 attempts with Kareem Hunt leading the way with 20. It looks like Hunt will be filling the role occupied by Nick Chubb with D’Ernest Johnson a distant second on the team, considering he has been targeted only once in the passing game all season. Odell Beckham Jr. for the second time in his career had a pass completion, rushing attempt, and reception in the same game. He’s 4 for 6 on his career with 144 yards and 2 TDs as a passer, not too shabby!

21.4 Fantasy Points Per Game

Mike Davis is filling in for Christian McCaffrey very nicely. Davis is averaging 21.4 points per game over his last 3 games, all of which he has started because of McCaffrey being out with injury. The Panthers have also won all 3 of those games after an 0-2 start. This just highlights that some teams are better equipped to utilize players than others. Davis already has 426 yards from scrimmage on the season, his second-highest season total in his career. So far this week (the ever points-y Alvin Kamara still plays tonight), Davis is the RB1 with 25.4 points. He has at least 90 yards from scrimmage AND a touchdown in each of the three games he started and is averaging 7.5 receptions per game over the last 4 weeks. When McCaffrey returns, he will probably be just as good as we expect him to be, but it’s clear that a lot of that performance has to do with the entire team that surrounds him.

22.5 Fantasy Points

Jason Sanders single-handedly delivered enough points to defeat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. He was responsible for 19 points in the game, while the 49ers put up only 17. He was perfect on the day, making 9 out of 9 kicks totaling 22.5 fantasy points. This was better than any two fantasy players on the 49ers. Helping Sanders along the way was a bit of the ole Fitzmagic – Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 27.6 points on the day to be the QB2 of the week so far. The 49ers are now 0-3 at home, and 2-0 in New Jersey. Jimmy Garoppolo started this game but was probably not ready to come back after going just 7/17 with 2 INTs in the first half before being benched. The 49ers have a lot to figure out and definitely do not look like the same team as last year. Fantasy value on this team seems to be random at best, non-existent at worst.

19 Passing TDs

Russell Wilson continued his stellar 2020 campaign on Sunday night with one of his more dramatic 4^th quarter comebacks. Wilson now has 23 career 4^th quarter comebacks. This one included going 94 yards and completing two 4^th down plays on this drive to DK Metcalf, the latter of which was for the game-winning touchdown. Wilson now has 19 TDs on the season, still on pace for 60 TDs on the year. The next closest QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, tied with 13 on the season so far. This year is also showing the emergence of DK Metcalf, now the WR2 on the season. He’s averaging 17.7 points per game this year, hasn’t scored less than 12.6 points all season, and is clearly now Russell Wilson’s favorite target.

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19
November

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 11

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Don’t look now but we are getting close to the end of the season.

If you are somewhere in the middle of your season long pool, now is the time to start making your move! Though, if you have been following the picks here – obviously you are towards the top :)

So let’s keep it rolling!

Week 11 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – Pittsburgh over JACKSONVILLE – Normally I’m not big on putting a road team on the top line. But, I mean, come on…

13 – MINNESOTA over Dallas – Not too much about the Cowboys makes me think they can stop the roll the Vikings have been on the last few weeks.

12 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over New York Jets – Justin Herbert vs Sam Darnold – basically Darnold getting a chance to see what the Jets were hoping he would be.

11 – CLEVELAND over Philadelphia – Two storied franchises ready to provide what I’m sure will be, well, a game.

10 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – No Brees, no problem when you’re going up against the Falcons.

9 – TAMPA BAY over Los Angeles Rams – When was the last time we had three prime time games with six teams with a .667 or better win percentage?

8 – BALTIMORE over Tennessee – Remember when the Titans seemed dominant? Now…not so much. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is thanks to the crowded AFC playoff race, THE TITANS WILL NOT MAKE

THE PLAYOFFS.

7 – SEATTLE over Arizona – Arizona is looking good, but it is just too hard to see the Seahawks continue to struggle back at home.

6 – HOUSTON over New England – Cam and friends looked good last week – I just don’t see them being able to do the same on the road.

5 – CAROLINA over Detroit – This is a battle of teams that can look like contenders or pretenders depending on the week. Lucky for the Panthers this is in Charlotte.

4 – Green Bay over INDIANAPOLIS – The Packers need a statement win – and I think Aaron Rodgers knows that.

3 – Cincinnati over WASHINGTON – I am really excited to see Alex Smith win his first game as a starter…just won’t happen yet.

2 – Kansas City over LAS VEGAS – I was all set to pick the Raiders here, but when nearly your entire defense is placed on the COVID list, makes it hard to contain the Chiefs’ offense.

1 – DENVER over Miami – Just seems like a trap game that the Dolphins will fall into.

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23
September

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2021 - Week 3

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

The allure and grandeur of the start of a new season is starting to fade and we are now getting a better idea of how teams actually look. With it comes a week where we have some tough decisions on our hands. Most of the “sure thing” games have the favorite on the road, which never makes it a “sure thing”.

My best to those who have to make picks for a survival pool this week.

We’re not worried about that here though so let’s get some confidence!

Week 3 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – DALLAS over Philadelphia – You know it’s a week of good matchups when the Cowboys are sitting on the top line!

15 – CLEVELAND over Chicago – The Justin Fields era officially begins…and probably gets off to a rocky start.

14 – PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati – Joe Burrow had one of the worst games of his young career last week – not a good run to be on when you head to Pittsburgh.

13 – DENVER over New York Jets – The Giants…the Jags…and now the Jets…how were the Broncos so lucky to get this start to a season?

12 – BUFFALO over Washington – The Bills dominated a mid-level team who was playing their backup QB on the road last week….look for a lot more of the same at home this week.

11 – Carolina over HOUSTON – The surprise of the young season has been the Carolina defense. They should have no problem against a rookie quarterback making his first start with a questionable offense.

10 – Arizona over JACKSONVILLE – I don’t think anyone has spent more time looking at college yearbooks than Trevor Lawrence must have this season. Well, maybe Urban Meyer has.

9 – LAS VEGAS over Miami – Just like the first two weeks, I REALLY want to pick the Raiders…so this time I will :) My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that DEREK CARR WILL LEAD THE LEAGUE IN PASSING YARDS THIS SEASON.

8 – TENNESSEE over Indianapolis – I said last week that that Titans needed to show me something before I pick them – a win in Seattle is a pretty good “something”.

7 – Baltimore over DETROIT – After two incredibly dramatic games to start the season, Ravens fans should be able to breath a little

easier this week.

6 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Tampa Bay – The Rams are one of the few teams that will be able to keep up with the Tampa Bay offense.

5 – SAN FRANCISCO over Green Bay – Rodgers and Friends looked like their old selves last week. Can’t play the Lions every week though.

4 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – It’s weird having the Chiefs this low for a home game…but have they seemed like the same dominant Chiefs we’ve seen the last few seasons?

3 – NEW ENGLAND over New Orleans – I told you the Saints week 1 success was a fluke! The real Saints will continue to come marching in to week 3.

2 – MINNESOTA over Seattle – The Vikings may be the best 0-2 team in recent history.

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Atlanta – Daniel Jones has quietly been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the first two games. That should result in a win this week.

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16
September

NFL Survivor Pool: Week 2

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Wow! What an opening NFL weekend! Start the week with Tom Brady ripping out Dak's heart and close it with a wild Monday night where the Raiders almost blew a game in the biggest way I've seen since the famous Herm Edwards play that led to the invention of kneeling. Between all of that, we had two Super Bowl favorites in the Bills and Packers getting handled. The Bills alone knocked 111 from the pool and with all the other losers brought the survivors down to 1210 from the starting 1604 entrants. But Alas, I got both of mine through.

This week my top pick goes to a team that couldn't win last week, but who can blame them when you're up against Mahomes. In this case, being close is enough for me to think the Cleveland Browns can handle the Houston Texans at home. They are the biggest favorites of the week at -12.5 and should make for a safe pick. I can't pretend like I actually watched any of the Jags/Texans game but I did watch the whole Chiefs/Browns game and what I saw was that Cleveland will be a playoff team again. The Texans are in rebuild mode and will be finishing at or near the bottom of the worst division in football.

For the second pick, I'm going with the other -12.5 favorite Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As good as Tom Brady looked in Week 1, this pick is all about Atlanta. I quickly remembered how bad they were last season after their performance against the Eagles and they won't be better this year. The Packers should be another popular pick this week, but I'm staying away until Rodgers proves he's not a mole trying to cost the team games.

My strategy early on in these pools is to keep it simple as long as you can and worry about making tough picks when the time comes. Saving teams always seems to bite you, just ask all the people that busted on the Jags in week 1 trying to be clever.

Cheers! Drink Five