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This week’s survivor pick is the Green Bay Packers! Just kidding! Good on you if you made the early pick on the Thursday night game. I jumped on the Packers -4.5 halftime line to make an easy buck when it was clear Matt Barkley was going to be finishing the game.

The Browns gave us a little scare at the end there last week against the Titans. I was very confident with the Titans up 28-13 with around 2 minutes left in the fourth. The Browns finish that drive with a TD but fail to convert the 2. Two possession game, still feeling great when miraculously the Browns recover an onside and drive to another TD with 27 seconds left. But alas lightning only struck once and the Titans recovered the 2^nd onside attempt to hold on 28-26.

Pittsburgh losing to Miami knocked many people out last week but if you are still alive here's who I like this week. New England seems like a pretty safe bet facing the aforementioned Steeler without Ben Roethlisberger. I can’t imagine the Patriots letting this one slip away. However I have already used that team in week 4. Here is a quick recap of my selections.

            Week   Pick                            

               1      Seattle

               2      Carolina

               3      Miami

               4      New England

               5      Arizona

               6      Tennessee

Denver should be another good option. I believe they show the world why they moved on from Brock in this one. As long as Trevor Siemian doesn't gift the Texans the game and the Broncos offense shows up in a modest form, they shouldn't have trouble handling the Texans.

However my pick will be the Cincinnati Bengals over the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals have been given a golden ticket to re-enter the division race. It is looking like they will be the only team in the division this week fielding their opening day starting QB. Last year’s division winner will get right vs the pathetic Cleveland Browns and try to distance themselves from the Steelers while Big Ben is out. Start your Bengals fantasy players, the only team letting up more points than the Browns are the 49ers.

Cheers, Drink Five!

With the conclusion of Week 6, we are now almost halfway through the fantasy football regular season. The next few weeks are both crucial (getting those tough wins to secure a playoff position and tiebreakers) and difficult (bye weeks, injuries, and now CVD-IR to deal with). Best of luck as we trudge through the rankings and hopefully find some jewels in the rough to pick up from the wire or start from your bench and pull out the win in Week 7! Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Drew Brees, JaMycal Hasty, Mike Williams, Rob Gronkowski, and Cincinnati Bengals (DST).

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Here's three games with interesting fantasy matchups that you can use to help make your lineup decisions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints - Let’s try this one more time, shall we. Last week I predicted that the Saints would be giving up a lot of points to the Cowboys, and the entire game featured one touchdown and 5 field goals. I do, however, have more faith in the new Bucs offense than the new-ish Cowboys one. Tampa has scored 96 points in the last 10 quarters of football. Jameis Winston only has one turnover during that time and WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are putting up huge numbers. Of course you’re starting them, but I think you need to get Jameis Winston in your lineup as well, since the Saints are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs.

I also think that Ronald Jones is a guy you can fire up. His snap % has gone from 12 to 31 to 49 in the last 3 weeks and he had 20 touches in last week’s game. On the other side, Tampa is in the top 10 giving up points to opposing QBs and WRs, but with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, I’m still only starting Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara on the Saints.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals -  Two teams and 8 games between them and nary a win in sight. The Cards did sniff it in Week 1 with a tie, but these guys are a combined 0-7-1. Both teams lost by 3 scores last week, and at this point it’s just about pride. Let’s start with the Cardinals RB David Johnson, who has a spectacular matchup this week – basically guaranteed double digit points in a standard league. How can I say this? Well in 4 games, the Bengals have had 7 RBs score at least 13 points against them, again, standard scoring. Those 7 RBs are basically averaging 100 yards and a TD each. This should open things up for Kyler Murray and he will likely find Larry Fitzgerald early and often. Fitz will be boosted by the absence of Christian Kirk. Andy Isabella will see more work, but it’ll be on the outside, according the Kliff Kingsbury.

Regardless, the Cardinals run far more 4-WR sets than the rest of the league and there will be a lot of mouths to feed on offense, so I only like Fitzgerald and Johnson as solid fantasy starts, but they should be tremendous against the crappy Bengals. I also like Tyler Eifert for the Bengals, as the Cardinals have given up an absurd about of points to opposing tight ends. The Cardinals are giving up over 19 points per game to opposing TEs, while the next closest team is giving up only 12. This is historically bad, start Eifert!

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Traditionally, this is a defensive struggle, but that’s not likely on Sunday. The Ravens have given up over 500 yards of offense the last two weeks. The Steelers finally figured out their offense as led by Mason Rudolph, and the name of the game is efficiency. The Steelers are in the top 10 for most points against at WR and RB while Baltimore is in the top 11 of each of those stats. Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to yards given up. The Steelers gave up 85 points in the first 3 weeks and the Ravens have given up 73 in just the last two! This is shaping up to be a solid fantasy matchup for both sides.

For the Steelers, I like James Conner of course, though his available may be up in the air, so keep an eye on injury reports. Jaylen Samuels proved very valuable and could have a huge role if Conner doesn’t play. Both Conner and Samuels had 8 targets and 10 carries, so they’ve both got value as starters, especially in a PPR league. Juju has to get involved sooner or later, so keep him in this week because it’s clear that the Steelers still love him. I also like Diontae Johnson if you’ve got bye week or injury troubles. 6 targets and 6 catches in an offense with lots of short passes is a good sign, especially in a PPR league.

For the Ravens, I like Lamar Jackson to continue to dominate, and hell, he’s the #1 fantasy player so far this year, so of course you’re starting him. Even when the team is losing, he finds a way to put up those garbage points. Last week, Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown did not put up the big numbers you want to see, but they both had lots of targets and that will continue all year long. Start them both along with Mark Ingram and don’t be surprised if both teams put up over 30 points in this division matchup.

Entering into week 4 and I want to change things up a bit. Moving forward, I am going to do a quick early week preview for some of the games I am liking early that week. Thursday night I will put my official drinkfive.com picks out. The goal is to dive a bit deeper each week into the strategies and trends I use to make my bets. I will also give plays or leans I have on each of these games outside of the official picks later in the week.

Last week we went 2-1 bringing our season record to a profitable 6-3 so far. Contrarian bettors have been on fire to start the season! Through the first 3 weeks, dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%). It’s a great start to the year, but if blindly following dogs and unders was all it took then we’d all be rich. I expect some regression at some point as the books get sharper with their lines and adjust. In the meantime, we stick to our contrarian roots to take advantage of extra value, but we also check off trends, systems, line movement, and any other edge we can find to make the best bet!

Note:  The spread number will always reflect based on the home team and does not represent my pick or play.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati -7.5 O/U 46:

The 2-1 Bengals host the 0-3 Jaguars in the week 4 Thursday Night matchup. This line opened at 7.5 and has pretty much stayed put since. The Bengals are getting 75% of the bets and 77% of the money and despite that lopsided betting we have yet to see major line movement. The lack of line movement is a classic line freeze, especially with the lopsidedness in betting, however this is a game I am not getting involved in from a spread perspective. The pros are all over Jacksonville and they have to be because 7.5 is a big number for any team in the NFL so it’s purely the value play. 

I do have this game in 4 separate teasers where I have Cincinnati teased down to -1.5. I also have a 1 unit bet on the under in this game as well. I got this at 46.5. The line opened at 47 and was bet down to 46.5 immediately, since then it has bounced around between 46.5 and 45.5. Bets and money are all favoring the over, but we see a dip in the line signaling reverse line movement. I am usually a fan of Thursday Night unders anyway because teams have less time to prepare, less time to heal up, and in general are off their normal routine.

Detroit at Chicago -3 O/U 42.5:

The early line opened Detroit +6 before being bet down to +3.5 by Sunday night. I am kicking myself for not jumping on this one early!  Detroit is taking the bets (78%) and the money (94%) early in the week which is what has led to the continued drop in the line. I even see a couple of 2.5’s on the board as of writing this. This is a divisional game and with that comes a built-in familiarity between the teams. The first goal for every NFL team is to win their division, so regardless of personnel or coaching changes these teams are built to compete with the teams in the division. This is usually something I feel I can take advantage of with divisional game underdogs. The bottom line in this one comes down to the very simple fact that Detroit is better coached. The Bears are at home, and they are coming off of an embarrassing loss, and we don’t know who the QB will be yet so I am laying off until later in the week.

I lean Detroit on this one at anything +3 or better. While they are 0-3 this season they have shown more than I think most of us expected to see this season. I think Matt Nagy has lost the locker room, while Detroit continues to fight hard in some tough early season games. This is a game I can see Detroit winning outright so I am also going to track the ML odds and sprinkle a little on it when I feel like I am getting my best value.

Cleveland at Minnesota +2 O/U 52:

This game is similar to the Carolina Dallas game in terms of my excitement level to bet it this week. This line opened with Cleveland favored at -1 and has since been bet up to 2, and even some 2.5’s. Cleveland has 70% of the bets and 90% of the money. To me this is purely a week 3 overreaction to Cleveland handling a very bad Chicago team and having the better record. Minnesota’s losses are to the Cardinals and the Bengals, both teams have winning records early in this season, and I do not think the Vikings are getting credit yet for how good those teams may be this season. The value here is too good to pass up; this game should be closer to a pick’em. If you want to feel better about this bet, throw Minnesota into a teaser bet and stretch that number across TWO key numbers in 3 and 7!

As I was writing this I grabbed Minnesota +2.5 because I don’t see any chance that the books move to this to 3 at any point this week. I also have Minnesota in a couple of teaser plays.

Kansas City at Philadelphia +7 O/U 54.5:

This one stinks, but this is a great example of how overreaction can create inflated value. The line on this game opened at 6.5 Sunday afternoon and bet down to 5.5 by Sunday night after the Chiefs lost, then hovered around 6 for most of Monday before jumping to 7 and 7.5 after the Eagles poor performance on Monday Night Football. The betting is predictably lopsided with KC grabbing 87% of the tickets and 98% of the money. I have a feeling a big part of the money coming in is in the form of teasers on KC. I have also teased the Chiefs down to 1.5-point favorites. I just don’t see a world where Mahomes loses 3 games in a row, not yet anyway. That being said, the Chiefs inability to cover the spread, slow start, and a big number on this game has me leaning Eagles early in the week. It’s a disgusting play, I know. 

Right now, this is only a lean to the Eagles and I would need to get it at 7.5 at least. I do have the Chiefs -1.5 in a couple of teasers already locked in. I have no love or opinion for the total in this one.

Carolina at Dallas -4.5 O/U 50.5:

Both the Panthers and the Cowboys remain undefeated ATS through the first 3 weeks of the season. Only one of them, barring a push, will leave week 4 remaining undefeated. This has been a crazy line to track and follow early in the week after opening early Sunday at 4 and jumping to 5.5 by Sunday night. The line has continued to bounce between 4 and 5 since. Bets are split 50/50, but the money is favoring Dallas with 67%. Typically, early week money is something that signals sharp action, which would be in favor of Dallas at this point. I am not making a play on this game yet, but I am heavily leaning Carolina in this game. Dallas is coming off a huge win on Monday Night Football against a division rival and is prime for a let down spot. Carolina has had extra rest and prep time, playing in last weeks Thursday night game, and have the top ranked defense in DVOA.

This number has been bouncing and if it gets back to 5 I may jump on it regardless of the day of the week. Dallas always draws heavy public action, plus they are coming off of the big prime time win where everyone saw them play. Right now, this is Carolina or no play for me. I also like the under in this game. It has been bet up from 48.5 to 50.5 and the bets and money are on the over, however I think this is inflated and I am looking to catch the high number before it dips back down again. No plays made yet, but this is a great betting game for week 4!

Seattle at San Francisco -3 O/U 52.5:

Both the Seahawks and the 49ers are coming off of a loss to NFC North teams and now face a division rival. You will come to know this about me, but I key into division matchup games immediately and I love division dogs! In this case especially we have a short division dog with a spread of 3 or less. This line opened at 3.5 and fell through the 3 to 2.5 Monday morning before settling at 3 (-115). Seattle is 1-2 while the 49ers are 2-1, which makes Seattle the more desperate team in this matchup. Russell Wilson is covering 65% of the time as a road dog in his last 33 games. Meanwhile, Shanahan is awful as a favorite going 8-19-1 (30%) in his last 28. If trends aren’t your thing, and you don’t like picking the highly bet (70% bets) and highly bought (78% of money) Seattle team, then consider the X and O’s; the 49ers run a man to man defensive scheme that is prime for Russ, Lockett, and Metcalf to pick apart.

I have a half unit bet on Seattle +3 -115 already in play. We will see what happens later in the week and if the opportunity presents itself to put the other half on them at +3 or better I will pull that trigger. This is a high total, but I see a high scoring game, I am just not sure if I can bet either way on this one confidently this early in the week.

Baltimore at Denver +1 O/U44.5:

It feels wrong to end with my last two picks being the “square” picks in terms of early week ticket and money count. Baltimore has seen 82% of bets and 88% of money since opening up at 1.5-point dogs on the road against the Broncos. I know Baltimore barely beat the Lions, if not for a record setting field goal by Justin Tucker, and the Broncos are 3-0, but let’s look at who these teams have each played. Baltimore lost in OT to the undefeated Las Vegas Raiders, beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, as previously mentioned. Denver has played the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets who are a combined 0-9 to start the season. I am far more willing to give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt for looking past the Lions after a huge win against a conference rival in week 2. Denver, on the other hand, doesn’t have anything near a signature win. The wrong team is favored and I would not be surprised to see this line close at a PK. 

This was my favorite bet early this week. I am on Baltimore +1.5, Baltimore +110 ML and I have them in a teaser play at +7 crossing the key number of 3 and landing on the key number of 7.